Carbon Trading

Selloff Caused by Gordon Browne's Support of Carbon Trading

noreply@blogger.com (Emissions Trader) — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 13:51:00 +0000

Ok, that is a bit silly. But he did come out and say 'support this'. But I think we carbon traders will be better off without his support.

Pressue on the EUAs was caused by other things.

Emailing: 3918

noreply@blogger.com (Emissions Trader) — Tue, 24 Mar 2009 15:17:00 +0000

AAU Sales

noreply@blogger.com (Emissions Trader) — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 07:59:00 +0000

In New Zealand a deal for AAUs was finally done between two forestry clients. This bodes well for the market although I suspect the government under John Key wishes the deal never happened. I am not sure about this, but the way they have been ducking and weaving away from the issue seems to be on purpose.

Matt Carr, the carbon reporter at Bloomberg reports that these credits are subject to NZU deliveries, which is waiting and waiting...

EUAs Troublesome At These Levels

noreply@blogger.com (Emissions Trader) — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 22:30:00 +0000

The market over the last few weeks has really confused me. The EUA volumes have been stupendous. Bluenext climbed steadily for the last two months from 2 to 4 million per day to over ten million.

And then ... stopped.

I mean, the volumes came right back down.

Maybe it was as though everyone was running for the door and then when the pullback came, they all reconsidered.

Not sure.

Peter Mandelson and Spock

noreply@blogger.com (Emissions Trader) — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 14:58:00 +0000

Do you know what Peter Mandelson and Spock have in common?

According to an activist from "Plane Stupid" its the green stuff in their bodies.

I will forgive you for not knowing that rather than being an advocate of "Green" things, the blighty activist, Leila Deen, describes him thusly:

"the only thing green about Peter Mandelson is the slime coursing through his veins".

This was after she doused Mandy with a cup of green slime (or what was described as her home-made pea soup). Not one for the cookbooks, I gather.

But I will not forgive you for not knowing that Spock has green blood.

Carbon Cheap for Two Years

noreply@blogger.com (Emissions Trader) — Thu, 05 Feb 2009 15:03:00 +0000

From Bloomberg

Carbon Permits May Remain Cheap for Two Years, IEA's Birol Says

By Jeremy van Loon and Todd White
Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Prices for carbon-emission permits may
remain near record lows until at least 2011 because of stalled
demand from polluting industries and governments, the International
Energy Agency's chief economist said.
Many countries have lost interest in forcing companies to pay
to release greenhouse gases to stem climate change as coping with
the recession and credit crunch take precedence, the IEA's Fatih
Birol said in an interview in Berlin.
Ending the credit crisis and recession dominate agendas of
governments that had planned to expand carbon-emission caps to
slash greenhouse-gas emissions blamed for climate change. Lack of
financing has delayed or killed about one-quarter of pending energy
projects, particularly to build power plants, Birol said.
"This is bad news for carbon permits," he said after
speaking at an atomic-energy conference in the German capital.
"There is a weakening of the climate-change issue and this is not
good news as we are coming up to the Copenhagen meeting."
The United Nations has called on 192 countries to negotiate a
new climate-protection treaty to be signed at the end of this year
in Copenhagen. The UN wants a new agreement ready to take effect
after 2012, when carbon-emission limits expire for 37 countries
under the existing Kyoto Protocol climate treaty.
EU carbon dioxide allowances on the European Climate Exchange
in London traded yesterday at a record low of 9.99 euros ($12.86)
to release a metric ton of CO2. They traded as much as three times
higher, or 30.90 euros a ton, on July 2.
The Paris-based IEA advises the U.S., the U.K. and 26 other
oil-importing nations on energy policies.

--With reporting by Mathew Carr in London. Editor: Randall
Hackley

Job Searching in a Falling Market

noreply@blogger.com (Emissions Trader) — Thu, 05 Feb 2009 14:26:00 +0000

"we are a boutique recruitment agency, with a large emphasis on the Global Carbon Markets"

Jankin Rooke recruitment.

noreply@blogger.com (Emissions Trader) — Wed, 28 Jan 2009 10:56:00 +0000

from LOL Cats

noreply@blogger.com (Emissions Trader) — Wed, 28 Jan 2009 10:49:00 +0000

eliminate

Carbon Price Gets Help, er, maybe not

noreply@blogger.com (Emissions Trader) — Thu, 22 Jan 2009 12:02:00 +0000

There were a few guys making noise about the importance of the carbon price being supported n order to protect the system's integrity in the wake of recent falls in prices of all carbon credits. Green Inc mentions the obvious: the economy is hurting and its dragging down carbon prices.

But now for the first time an Ex World Bank official and a current International Emissions Trading Assoc guy say that the market should be supported.

It kind of says to me "Short me!" when these guys come out and say there is a problem.

Carbon Job Cuts: Well, Of Course!

noreply@blogger.com (Emissions Trader) — Thu, 15 Jan 2009 14:09:00 +0000

I think this was obvious result. I suppose many more to come.

(maybe me next!)

EcoSecurities, Camco Are Cutting Jobs, Carbon Finance Reports
2009-01-15 11:21:39.394 GMT

By Mathew Carr
Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) -- EcoSecurities Group Plc, Camco
International Ltd. and Climate Change Capital, companies that
invest in emission reduction projects, are cutting jobs to
reduce costs, Carbon Finance reported.
Dublin-based EcoSecurities will next month close its Oregon
consulting office, reducing its U.S. headcount by a third, the
news service said on its Web site. Thirteen employees including
Mark Trexler, head of the team, will be let go, the report said.
Jersey, U.K.-based Camco is cutting an unspecified number
of jobs, Carbon Finance said. London-based Climate Change
Capital has fired its five-person land-and-water team, according
to the report.

From Bloomberg.com, enter "carbon" in the search box

Emissions Trading Analogous To Mobile Telephony

noreply@blogger.com (Emissions Trader) — Fri, 09 Jan 2009 11:49:00 +0000

Someone once asked me about how the Carbon trading in America and Carbon trading in Europe compare. Right away I was able to make an analogy to Mobile Phones.

When I lived in Greece, working in the share trading business, there were something like 11 million registered mobile phones for a population of ten million. And this was back in 1999!

The reason mobile phones took off so well is that the land lines sucked. It was (is) easier to put up relay stations, than to build lines underground (underwater, between islands, in this case). Nowadays, and even five years ago, the mobile phone connection between one company in Sweden and another in Spain is seamless. Calls go through with only the slightest hesitation.

But go over to America and there is a problem. Sine the USA had great land lines, it seemed they were late off the mark for mobile telephony. Now we find vast areas of no coverage; companies that do not connect with each other and fees that are tied into the full home package of internet, television connection and home phones (think Comcast), and therefore mind boggling, subscription contracts that are hard to severe, and with numbers sometimes confused with the kids' numbers!

This is how I see the Carbon trading in America. Disjointed, uncommunicative, and far from transparent and thus ultimately of lower value than their European cousins.

The EU ETS has many faults, but it was designed for the whole EU: one contract, one price, anywhere at anytime. Fungibility is not a problem. And the connection to the Global credit system (the CERs, VERs, ERUs, etc) is now up and running after some delays.

What about the prospects in the USA? Think about those delays and problems but tens times worse.

Forget about policy and Mr Obama: think logistically. The New England RGGI, the Califormian initiative, the Chicago Climate Exchange: all a bit of a laugh right now with prices for voluntary credits under 3 dollars and in the case of CCX, a very faulty system with low quality verification.

To get this thing moving, I would only suggest a system that moves the individual regimes into a standardized system. But I must be dreaming; its unlikely to happen.

Sox

Weaker Carbon Next Year

noreply@blogger.com (Emissions Trader) — Fri, 02 Jan 2009 08:24:00 +0000

Bloomberg reports that the carbon price average is set to decline next year, citing a survey of experts in the field.

The target average (17.48 Euro) is interesting in light of the fact that currently prices are cca 15. 40 for the spot contract as of January 2, 2009. That means that some feel that the price will be substantially higher for parts of the year, whereas recent reports were targeting a test of support at the 11.80 Euro level and suggesting that while it is expected to rise later in the period 2008-2012, it could very well be under severe pressure near term. Near term for many is this all important new year, when financial pressure is top on the list of worries.

What are the main reasons to cause this near term weakness?

ü Lower industrial output, i.e., less greenhouse gas production.

ü A rush to sell off excess credits sooner rather than later in order to raise cash. .

- not just EUA surpluses, but also AAUs, the government credits which could replace CER purchase from Government buyers, driving those credits lower in price making CER purchases for companies cheaper.

- Sox

How do you hedge the collapse of the Carbon Market?

noreply@blogger.com (Emissions Trader) — Mon, 29 Dec 2008 12:14:00 +0000

Recently the great big Carbon bag of tricks has been suffering tremendous stress and numerous punctures have had to be patched.

It seems clear to me that the latest EU and the UNFCCC meetings and decisions have not been overly optimistic. And with the end to the financial crisis is nowhere in sight, carbon prices and fees (the livelihood of my existence) will suffer.

And climate skeptics have been getting all the good press as snow continues to fall on all those ski resorts.

What does this mean for the future of climate change politics?

And more importantly, what does this mean for the future of my job?

Not sure just now, but I have been looking into something I had pursued halfheartedly just before I had developed the carbon business for my employers: distressed debt.

Well, after all, it’s best to consider a hedge.

Carbon Traders Worried

noreply@blogger.com (Emissions Trader) — Fri, 12 Dec 2008 17:21:00 +0000

The outcome of the Poznan talks are not so great. With economies in shambles, the industrial emissions output forecasted to decline (um, yes, that is good), and the hesitation for politicians to add pain on top of pain (the carbon costs), its clear that a stringent effort to fight global warming will be a tough pill to swallow.

Carbon Traders Are ‘Deeply Concerned’ by Technical Problems
2008-12-12 16:29:38.210 GMT

By Mathew Carr
Dec. 12 (Bloomberg) -- European Union emission traders are
“deeply concerned” by unspecified technical problems at the
U.K. and Dutch registries as key contracts are slated for
settlement next week, said a lobby group.
“You will understand the deep concerns of the trading
community whose income is at stake,” Michela Beltracchi,
Brussels-based European policy director at the International
Emissions Trading Association, said today in an e-mailed letter
sent to the European Commission.
Some carbon-dioxide futures contracts traded on the
European Climate Exchange, the biggest bourse for the emissions
market, settle next week.
“I am sure that you will appreciate the importance of a
smoothly functioning market infrastructure, especially at a time
when confidence in the markets is shaky and financial resources
are dwindling,” Beltracchi said.

For Related News:
EU emissions-trading stories TNI ECREDITS EU
Today’s top environment news XTOP

The Question I have is, are they concerned that the market might collapse and the whole carbon trading biz will evaporate, or are they simply worried for their jobs?

*(I am).

You can find this story on Bloomberg.com, just enter Carbon into the search window on upper right.

Deustche Says Carbon Lower, Near Term

noreply@blogger.com (Emissions Trader) — Fri, 05 Dec 2008 15:23:00 +0000

Well, near term at least we can say its doomy and gloomy.

The German bank said lower productivity from companies participating in the EU's emissions trading scheme will lead to a surplus in the emissions permits traded under the scheme over the next two years.

This will depress prices for permits (EUAs) traded in the scheme's second phase (2008-12), possibly forcing a retest of the all-time low of 11.80 euros a tonne, the bank said.

"We see continuing pressure on EUA prices owing to the much lower level of emissions we are now assuming in 2009 and 2010," said Deutsche analyst Mark C. Lewis in a note, adding firms may forward sell permits they dont need next year to raise cash.

Benchmark EUAs traded as low as 14.45 euros a tonne on Friday, 50 percent below a 2-year high of 29.69 euros hit in July.

"It looks like a sequel to the phase 1 horror movie," said one emissions trader.

In the scheme's first phase (2005-07), an overallocation of permits caused the EUA price to crash, prompting critics to question the effectiveness of emissions trading as a weapon in the fight against climate change.

The difference in the scheme's second phase (2008-12), Lewis said, is that companies can carry over unused permits to the third phase, which begins in 2013, thereby avoiding the mass sell-off that pushed prices down to zero in phase I.

Lewis predicted emissions will start to rise again in 2010, growing by 11 percent over 2009 levels to 2.28 billion tonnes by 2020, and leading to an overall shortage of EUAs in the second and third phases.

"On our revised estimates the ETS is still short by an average of 50 million tonnes per year over 2008-20 even after allowing for the use of (Kyoto) credits," Lewis said.

This is down from previous Deutsche estimates of a shortage of 86 million tonnes annually.

Lewis said EU emissions will drop to 2.054 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide next year, down five percent from an estimate of 2.165 tonnes in 2008 and 10 percent below the 2.247 billion tonnes emitted last year.

Lewis did not change his EUA price forecast, estimating prices of 30 euros a tonne this year, rising by four percent annually to 48 euros in 2020.
((michael.szabo@reuters.com; +44 207 542 9242; Reuters Messaging: michael.szabo.reuters.com@reuters.net))

Sequel to the horror movie that was Phase 1. Yuk, yuk.

Carbon Price Direction: More Affected By Systemic Issues

noreply@blogger.com (Emissions Trader) — Wed, 18 Jun 2008 06:50:00 +0000

Recently the market is moving higher due to other parts of the energy complex. The market is not rushing ahead in carbon however, as it can be seen to do in Oil. I am not so bullish on carbon as some are, to say for example that it will get to 35 or 40 in EUAs (which admittedly a lot of dealer surveys predict).

I think rather, that the systemic and policy issues of the UNFCCC and the European Commission will be the most confusing aspect, even if the price direction of energy seems clear. The issue of whether CERs and ERUs will be valid credits in the EU ETS after 2012 is a big issue and the EC does not want to import them if no one else in the world is going to participate willingly and actively in carbon trading. This makes sense, really. But it is a bit naive to think they will sign up to it easily.

Machismo in Green Sector Jobs

noreply@blogger.com (Emissions Trader) — Tue, 10 Jun 2008 05:25:00 +0000

I have been a huge cynic of green jobs over the years. I believed that many or most jobs were small scale and only for bearded people from Seattle.

Now that Carbon Trading has been handed over to the financial market types, a bit more machismo has been added to it. Now these environmentalists are forced to wear suits and enjoy getting fat paycheques. I love it. One of my favorite expressions is "you only become conservative once you have something to conserve (such as family, job, and er.. fat paycheque).

Many people ask me about jobs in the sector and I try to lay out some lists. One great source is the Reuters Interactive community.

List of Green Jobs. Free sign up. A MUST if you are looking for jobs.

--And there is this article about the sector:

'Green' job market bucks credit crunch gloom

By Michael Szabo

LONDON, June 9 (Reuters) - The 'Green' job market is thriving despite lay-offs across the financial and property sectors caused by the global credit crunch, environmental recruiters said on Friday.

With concerns over global warming climbing the corporate agenda, the number of climate change specific roles has near tripled in the past 12 months as business looks to cut its carbon footprint, UK-based Acre Resources said in a statement.

The environmental sector, or so-called 'green collar' jobs, including roles in renewable energy and corporate social responsibility, has seen some 20 percent growth in same period.

"Big companies ... have made very public pledges around their approach to green issues (and) despite pressures indicated by a looming recession, it is too late for most to renege on their environmental commitments," said Andrew Cartland, a managing director at Acre.

The average UK salary for a climate change professional in 2008 is 49,000 pounds ($96,910), up 14 percent from last year, while green collar wages climbed by around five percent to 34,000 pounds ($67,250), Acre said.

Top-end green jobs now earn as much as 120,000 pounds ($237,300) annually.

"While oil prices skyrocket, renewable energy solutions look to become more and more viable -- the focus on reducing energy and carbon emissions appears ever-more essential for business," Cartland added.

Oil prices hit a new record on Friday of over $139 a barrel.

"Many investors are supporting the green agenda as a 'safe' option," he said.

Despite being wounded by the credit crisis, banks are pressing ahead with investments in booming renewable energy sector.

Investment bank Morgan Stanley on Monday announced it has bought a minority stake $20 million in G24 Innovations, a UK-based solar energy company.

CLICK HERE for a list of "green collar" job vacancies

(Reporting by Michael Szabo; Editing by William Hardy)

((michael.szabo@reuters.com; +44 207 542 9242; Reuters Messaging: michael.szabo.reuters.com@reuters.net))

Abuses in Carbon Trading

noreply@blogger.com (Emissions Trader) — Thu, 05 Jun 2008 09:31:00 +0000

From what I have heard on the WorldService new program, little bits of the larger BBC documentary, it will be quite a scathing reapproach on Carbon Trading. The Indian developers that are making millions from something that would have been done anyway.

My problem with that last statement is this: if someone else is going to get paid for the same project, why shouldn’t you get paid. Its like a tax loophole. Are we not supposed to také advantage of it?

The bigger issue , also not examined is this: If it were not brought to the market place – where, yes, some people make large pots of money, or it wouldn’t be so useful – then it would not have been addressed with the same vigor. Get real people! You cannot expect social conciousness and naive green sentiment to tackle the problem. The carrot (not the stick) is the only way forward. And what a great big carrot it is!

BBC documentary link

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00bvtcx

Mark Gregory investigates the UN's scheme for reducing emissions of global warming gases. He discovers the scheme is fundamentally flawed, with billions of dollars being wasted.

BBC Takes On Carbon Trading

noreply@blogger.com (Emissions Trader) — Tue, 03 Jun 2008 09:13:00 +0000

I am interested to hear how they will portray carbon trading. Typically they will point out the abuses (okay, there are a few…) but they may trash the whole thing.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00bvtcx

Mark Gregory investigates the UN's scheme for reducing emissions of global warming gases. He discovers the scheme is fundamentally flawed, with billions of dollars being wasted.

The problem as I see it for the Beeb is that they do not want to come down on the side of Anti-Global Warming crowd. (ie., Bush). So they might end up saying, its the best solution but poorly executed.

Dec 08 break up?

noreply@blogger.com (Emissions Trader) — Fri, 23 May 2008 13:30:00 +0000

From a guy I know in the market....

click on the image for a better presentation..

Do you believe in chart machinations? Look at a daily ecx chart for dec 08.

First, contract trended up, then made a reverse head and shoulder which, then breaks up ...in a gap no less, and then the gap is filled in. Oh, and the 26 level was a high from 2007. But that is only if you believe in charts.

How to secure a good CDM deal at an early stage?

noreply@blogger.com (Emissions Trader) — Wed, 09 Apr 2008 15:09:00 +0000

The CDM JI market these days is a sellers market. These Offsets (I hate the word Offset for some reason; probably because I have only thought of them as CDM/JI ) are valued anywhere from 2 to 16 Euros depending on at what stage of development they are.

An early stage project (before PIN, only at the pre-agreement level) could be captured at under 5 Euro.

But a Guaranteed CER ( the credit that is issued by a CDM project or ERU from the JI project) is above 16 and this is because the guarantor is someone that has arranged, for example, 10 million on something like delivery-versus-payment terms and can be fairly sure that he will get at least 50% of the ten million and can guarantee that half. (a crude example). Usually the bigger banking or financials that have entered the carbon space.

But to arrange a good project early, now that is the key. But how to do this? Everyone and their uncle is seeking early projects. I get calls because of my access to some of the less sophisticated markets in a variety of enterprises (emerging market, merchant wanker background). But all these aggregators are suggesting that they have something special that the other guy doesn't.

In truth, it really only takes a bit of knowledge on the type of projects that can reduce Greenhouse gases, the markets where it can be (or soon will be) applicable, and a good network in some economy in transition (well, mostly these) to be able to get a deal at an early stage. No it ain't simple, but some aspects are.

The main aspect is this: explain to the host (the company who has a location that can have GHGs reduced, captured) that they will make money and then get them to sign away their future at 2 Euros.

Alrighty, I am a huge cynic.

The interesting thing about these Offsets (I hate that word) is that the project developers are now being courted like the local pygmy chief, showing him shiny objects, marvelous gifts and even telling him he is so tall. In a few years, these guys will be on the other end of the stick I think, and it will be a buyers market.

Its a wierd market. The idea of selling a project to a buyer has so many variables. And usually they want it sold fairly quickly. Some sellers ask for surprisingly high prices. Some ask for up front payments. Buyers ask for bank guarantees (which is hard for smaller developers). Some ask for financing on the PDD work (which can be pricey).

The buyers want approved methodologies, they want bigger discounts since the projects won't deliver the amount of credits estimated. Delivery dates won't be on time, there might be some subsidies that will affect the local market, the issue of double counting has to be clarifies... on and on...

But what is good, is that .. for now at least... the buyers are all really quite nice people. It reminds me of another emerging market where all the fund managers were so nice and happy to speak to you, and then later, when the market was over serviced, they would be cruel and ask for special favours. I can see that happening.

Oh well, it really is a financial market now. Not to be confused with a green market, no way.

Nuclear Bombs Could Ruin Your Future

noreply@blogger.com (Emissions Trader) — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 07:18:00 +0000

Here’s a pleasant news story for your sunny Tuesday morning. It was sent out by the Carbon reporter at Bloomberg.

A nuclear war involving 100.A nuclear war involving 100 Hiroshima-size bombs would open a massive hole in the earth's ozone layer, exposing life to dangerous levels of the sun's rays, a new study shows. Smoke caused by the atomic explosions would trap heat in the stratosphere and lead to the deterioration of more than 20 percent of ozone globally, according to a study published today in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The findings suggest a more severe ``nuclear winter'' resulting from a massive nuclear war than was predicted in the 1980s.

Link here: Earth's Ozone Would Be Largely Destroyed in Nuclear Conflict

But what I do not understand is

1) Wouldn’t the sudden shut-down of the world’s economies and industrial production assist in turning back the clock since only a fraction of the people would be alive? and um, “nuked back to the dark ages”

2) Who would care about getting killed by the weather when your teeth are falling out of your gums and you are fighting each other for that can of pork and beans.

Gored Me!

noreply@blogger.com (Emissions Trader) — Tue, 01 Apr 2008 10:10:00 +0000

Yes, It Was An April Fools Joke. Gotcha! (Got Me, Actually)

Re Seen on Grist.org today. Below

A Gore April Fools Joke?

noreply@blogger.com (Emissions Trader) — Tue, 01 Apr 2008 07:34:00 +0000

Seen on Grist.org today. But guess what? The link goes to nowhere.