Gatlinburg Real Estate Blog

Are The Smoky Mountains Recession Friendly?

2009-11-04T07:50:00.004-05:00

It was recently announced that 9 million Great Smoky Mountain National Park visitors spent $800million during the past year which is the most of any US National Park. My first thought is that the nearly $90 per person spending is pretty good given that we are in the middle of a very difficult recession.

We have however seen this before. The Gatlinburg area has always fared well during this sort of economic environment. During challenging times, families considering cost cutting still choose to have their vacation trips but they often do it in a more affordable fashion. People who usually take a week long vacation to the beach may choose instead to enjoy a 3 or 4 day trip to the mountains for several reasons. The fact is that the long weekend or 4 day trip to the Gatlinburg area is more affordable than the beach for a number of reasons:

For travelers from most of the Eastern United States (and much of the US population in general) the drive to the Smokies is no more than a day's drive. This eliminates the expense of the airline tickets, the rental car, and the higher priced entertainment found at the beach. To be sure some of Sevier County's entertainment is rather pricey. A family's day of recreation at Dollywood is no cheap date at $53.65 per adult ticket and $42.45 for a child's ticket. Add to this expensive food options and the additional spending opportunities of a day at the park and you have an expensive day indeed. Not surprisingly the visitor count at Dollywood IS down somewhat this year. On the other hand affordable Smoky Mountain restaurants, lodging options, and entertainment venues are having a good year because they represent excellent value.

The Great Smoky Mountain National Park is still absolutely free to visit which is a real bargain. As I often say, "Free is my FAVORITE price!" This is the same sort of success that our community has enjoyed during other recessionary times due to the affordability.

If you are looking for an affordable vacation option nothing represents a better value than a log cabin or a chalet in the mountains. If you are looking for a real estate bargain we can show you some excellent values there too. No they aren't free, but with our current "Buyer Friendly" market you may never see a better opportunity. For a current inventory of foreclosures (ours and other area firms listings too) please click here.

And the Streak is Still Intact!

2009-10-31T15:37:00.008-05:00

For the fourth month in a row our Great Smoky Mountain Associatioon of Realtors had more residential real estate sales than we did during the equivalent month in 2008. Keep in mind that the end of 2008 was a very bleak period indeed and we have only passed last year's total by a single unit sale as of today. The 116 Gatlinburg area residential real estate sales that have already been reported as of November 3rd will likely finish around 120-125 units as more sales are reported over the next couple of weeks by real estate agents from our Smoky Mountain community.

What does this mean you ask? It does look like we have begun to turn the corner at least for volume and that has to happen before prices can begin to increase. While we won't likely exceed 2008's full year volume it does appear that we will do so for the latter half of the year. Although nobody can say for sure when prices will start to go up we appear to be setting the stage for that to occur. Here is my report for October's sales but if you want to see a clearer version that will be regularly updated with the updated values click here.

New Wal-Mart in Gatlinburg??

2009-10-30T11:42:00.005-05:00

Not really, but I did wonder what this Wal-Mart driver was thinking when he tried to come down Ski Mountain Rd. through Chalet Village. Don't know if he was relying on a GPS unit that was malfunctioning but you just can't get a semi trailer down (or up) the mountain through the hairpin curve. Sadly, this happened yesterday too - You have to wonder if someone stole the "No 18 Wheelers" sign that is supposed to be at the base of Ski Mountain. This driver was really caught between a rock and a hard place. The rock was some of our famous Rocky Top and the hard place was this power pole.

What does this have to do with Gatlinburg real estate you ask? Very little really but it was quite funny in a sad sort of way...

3.87 Years Supply of Cabins??

2009-10-29T14:19:00.006-05:00

Yes, it's a fact. The number of log and log look (cabin construction) homes currently offered for sale in our Sevier County residential real estate market is equal to nearly 4 years. This calculation is based on the number of transactions during the period 10/1/2008 to 9/30/2009. The pace of sales is slowly improving and homes are being purchased each month so this number will hopefully continue to improve.

For non log or log look (residential) properties the market is significantly better with the current supply equal to only 2.27 years. The overall Gatlinburg area real estate market continues to be driven primarily by foreclosures and prices are still very tough on sellers. While this is an improvement over where we were a few months ago a balanced market is considered to be a 6 month supply which we are obviously well above.

Although 5 of the 15 properties that we listed this month are already pending sales, these 10 recently listed homes are not yet sold. Some are so ugly that only their mother could love them but where some people see ugly others see opportunity!

Why do Banks "Give Away" Foreclosure Properties?

2009-10-28T18:56:00.003-05:00

The number of new home foreclosures monthly continues to be roughly equal to the number of Sevier County residential sales each month. Many of these sales are at ridiculously low prices - Levels not seen in many years. When a client of mine who is attempting to sell his own (non-foreclosure) property asked why the banks were pricing so aggressively, I decided that the answer might be something that readers of this Gatlinburg real estate blog might also be interested in.

Basically, foreclosure units are distressed properties owned by banks that are highly motivated to sell for several reasons. As has often been said, the LAST thing the bank wishes to do is to actually end up with the house. Banks are in the business of lending, and they are restricted from doing that while they own the non-performing asset. In fact, the bank is penalized by the regulators severely until the property is liquidated. Additionally, the bank knows that an unoccupied home doesn't fare well and that time is NOT on their side as to the condition of their asset. Next, most of these properties are no longer furnished which makes them less attractive to buyers who can find non-foreclosure properties that still are furnished and extensively decorated. Finally, foreclosure properties are sold without disclosure - What you see is what you get and the bank makes NO statements or guarantees of condition. Buyers therefore expect (and often get) excellent bargains on these foreclosed Gatlinburg area homes.

For all of these reasons, the banks price these foreclosure properties VERY aggressively. When the banks tell us that they want a price that should sell the property within 60 days (or less) this requires a very aggressive price. We sometimes get the price that we suggest but often the bank refuses to acknowledge the serious haircut that they will have to accept. When this happens the properties don't sell until the banks grudgingly lower the price to the near giveaway levels that are required for a timely sale. Frequently, the value of these cabins and chalets is only about HALF of what they sold for at the market peak which we experienced during 2006-2007. If you are considering purchasing an investment property or a wonderful residence in our Smoky Mountains you have an unprecedented opportunity to cash in on the current situation. Please contact us if you would like to take advantage of this situation.

It's Official, Three Positive Months in a Row!

2009-10-21T12:50:00.008-05:00

Before July 2009, our Gatlinburg area real estate market had not enjoyed a single positive year to year comparison for any month since September of 2006. For the months of July, August, and September we have however had positive comparisons to every one of the same months during 2008. I will admit that the months we are comparing to were very dark indeed but even slower months were suffered through during the first few months of this year. Here is a chart of our Smoky Mountain real estate market showing that we may now finally be on the mend:

For a clearer chart in a PDF format please click here. For those that might prefer our normal chart layout you can view that here:

Either way you look at it the last three months have, if only slightly, bettered the same months from a year ago. We hope to see this trend continue because increasing residential real estate unit volume means increasing prices are likely headed our way. If you have been waiting for the perfect opportunity to purchase property here in the Smokies of East Tennessee at prices not seen for several years, this is an excellent time to get serious!

Half Way Through October, It's Time to Close the Books on September

2009-10-15T19:28:00.002-05:00

For the life of me I don't understand why it takes so long for Smoky Mountain real estate agents to post their sales into our local MLS. It isn't that hard, doesn't take long to do, and we all use the stats to analyze the various aspects of our market and look for trends and opportunities. Knowledgeable real estate agents use these figures to better assist our clients and of course timely information is always better than incomplete or late data. Regardless of how much it irritates me or how simple the task should be, it isn't going to change. To get a really complete picture of our Gatlinburg area real estate market you just have to wait for a couple of weeks for all of the dust to settle. Sadly, it isn't over even then as I had to slightly revise my reported sales totals for both July and August as well as September to totally match the latest stats as reported by our Great Smoky Mountains Association of Realtors. With that long preamble, here is the latest market summary:

If you review these numbers (much more legible via the link) you will see that for the past 3 months we have, even if only slightly, bettered the same periods from last year. While this increase in residential units sold is small, it does appear to be the beginning of a recovery for our Gatlinburg area real estate market. As I always caution, a short period of time doesn't necessarily guarantee that the longer term trend will follow but it does seem that we are on the mend. This can also be seen by the same data arranged differently as below:

If the market volume trend continues price increases will follow soon. With mortgage loan interest rates at historic lows and prices at levels not seen in several years there may truly never be a better time to purchase Sevier County real estate!

TWENTY PENDING SALES!

2009-10-14T20:01:00.003-05:00

Sorry for yelling this title but I've never, ever, had this happen before!! I, as an individual agent, not including the other agents in our office, have 20+ pending sales (all of which are my listings) scheduled to close during the next 45 days. Without a doubt some will be delayed and a sale may die due to inspection or other contingencies but this is certainly a milestone for me. I am extremely grateful to my Schoenfield Real Estate Team, our clients, and even more grateful to my God that we have been blessed this way. We still have some very well priced listings left so if you are looking for a Smoky Mountain getaway or residence of your own please contact us!

You Can't Get There From Here, (Pretty Much)

2009-10-14T18:51:00.005-05:00

Visitors from less topographically challenging (flatter) parts of the country are often amazed by our road system here in the Smoky Mountains of East Tennessee. Roads go in anything but straight lines and can be downright challenging for flatlanders. Pretty much the opposite of the orderly, systematic way that the streets of Washington DC were planned, Gatlinburg area roads seem to be imagined by a drunken or deranged person with an intent to harm the innocent travelers who aren't familiar with our Sevier County community. More on the DC comparison in a moment...

The reasons that Gatlinburg's roads are so crooked is quite interesting. The modern day roads often follow the original settler's wagon trails from days gone by. Those wagon trails followed the Cherokee Indian trails used by the earliest inhabitants of the mountains which were named Shaconage, which means "place of the blue smoke". The Indian's footpaths often followed the animal paths which were created by the large number of bears, deer, elk, wild boars, and other animals that are still here in large quantities. The animal paths followed waterways, which in turn wound around the mountains so at the root of all these curves are our glorious Smoky Mountains. Add to all of this the fact that until recently there was very little government oversight as to what sort of roads and driveways developers could create and you have the final result - A road network that is challenging at best and at worst downright bizarre occasionally.

It is entertaining sometimes to watch even the best model GPS systems grapple with the tortured routes that are found throughout our area. Earlier this week I plugged in a destination which my GPS indicated was only 6.3 miles away (as the eagle flies). Not being an eagle or a private pilot I really didn't have the option of taking the aerial route. Unfortunately, the "best" road route was three times that at 18 miles long and a 30 minute estimated travel way. During that same day the same GPS system appeared to stammer and stutter as it repeated three times with absolutely no pause in between the word "recalculating" as it struggled mightily to find and stay on the best route. I guess you had to be there to fully appreciate the scene but it was very funny in person.

If you think about it, we here in the Tennessee Smoky Mountains are pretty much polar opposites to Washington, DC in so many ways. Not only are their roads straighter but we are in many ways a much more civil place. Furthermore, we conservative folks here in Sevier County generally manage to live within our means and don't think that you can borrow your way to happiness as some in Washington must believe. With one of the nation's highest crime rates and until recently a handgun ban Washington is again a total opposite to our low crime but second amendment right friendly town.

The point of this post? How does it relate to Gatlinburg real estate? If you are looking for a great and safe place to relax and you aren't in a hurry, Gatlinburg may be just what the doctor ordered. An attorney friend of mine who as a young man lived for a few years in DC was stuck (even worse than usual) in gridlock one rush hour afternoon which gave him the opportunity to calculate in detail how much of his life he would spend in that traffic if he added up 10 commuting trips weekly for 50 weeks a year (two weeks for a annual vacation) for the rest of his working career. The answer literally caused him to re-think his career, lifestyle, and the location of his residence. Charlie has lived in East Tennessee for the past nearly 40 years and says it was the best decision of his life right behind the choice of his bride. Glenda was a local girl who helped make the decision to move much sweeter I'm sure. If on the other hand you are looking for a high tax, high crime, high stress lifestyle there are dozens of large cities around the country that will do just fine - Just not for me!

September's New Foreclosure Notices are Down!

2009-10-07T05:34:00.005-05:00

In a tough environment, any bit of good news is latched onto by those looking for encouragement. Although a couple of months does not a trend make, the good news is that September's new foreclosure notices for Sevier County ( which includes the communities of Gatlinburg, Pigeon Forge, Sevierville, Kodak, and parts of Seymour) were down significantly to "only" 112. After peaking at 147 in June, we are relieved that the number appears (at least for now) to be dropping. Banks are motivated to sell these properties in a hurry and the prices that they are asking are truly fire sale levels. While that is GREAT news for prospective buyers it is enough to give a seller a migraine. Each week, several times a week, I speak with would-be sellers who are unable to sell for what the current depressed market will bear. Each foreclosure creates more downward pressure on prices as the banks stampede to get out the door.

All of this panic by the banks does create excellent opportunities for buyers however. The most extreme pain is clearly in the cabin market which has had the toughest sledding all year long. Here are 24 very well priced properties currently listed by our office that potential buyers should consider. If you are considering an investment in Smoky Mountain real estate this truly is an unparallelled opportunity! If the supply of new foreclosures continues to drop prices will start upward and we will have missed a remarkable chance to buy a Gatlinburg area residence or second home for much less than it cost to build!

Unfortunately, It Ain't Over Yet...

2009-10-05T05:00:00.000-05:00

While 2009 has been a record year for US real estate foreclosures I'm afraid the pain hasn't ended yet. With unemployment still rising the rate of U.S. home foreclosures continues to increase as shown by this chart.

The same is true in our Gatlinburg area as Smoky Mountain foreclosures are also on the rise. In fact, sadly, Tennessee has one of the higher rates of foreclosures and delinquent loans.
What is of very great concern to me is that there are so many more delinquent but not yet in foreclosure homeowners. With every bank foreclosure that enters the market, normal sellers are pushed aside by more competitively priced bank owned properties. Sometimes it seems that the banks are nearly giving homes away and while that isn't true, they are frequently selling them at fire-sale prices. Here is a link to the 8 newest Smoky Mountain foreclosure listings that we have received. All of these are fire-sale priced properties which the banks would love to sell.

September Sales Slow Slightly

2009-10-03T18:20:00.007-05:00

Sorry about the title to this Gatlinburg Real Estate Blog post, I just couldn't resist the urge to alliterate. September's Smoky Mountain real estate residential sales numbers are in and the results are about even with last year. While better than some months of this year have been, September doesn't yet look to be significantly above last year's tally. Even after all the dust settles in a few more days, our final number will not be much above last year's sales which is a bit of a disappointment. For those of you who like details here is the full chart which can be clicked on for a clearer image as well as a very telling second graph.

What's worse, although it is nearly certain that not every sale has been reported yet, it looks as if sales were down sequentially for the second month in a row. The fall and winter months are generally slower than our peak spring and summer periods so part of the drop is no doubt seasonal. Still, it would be nice to have a few more September sales reported in the next few days...

You Always Look for What You Don't Have...

2009-09-26T18:49:00.002-05:00

Many of the 12+ million annual visitors to our Smoky Mountain paradise come from the northern parts of the country. What they are looking for is a slower pace, less pressure, and the natural beauty that the Gatlinburg area is known for. Some visitors are drawn to the shopping and attractions of Pigeon Forge and Sevierville but regardless of where they actually stay, most of our guests are drawn to the family friendly and stunningly beautiful Smoky Mountains for a combination of all of these components. Without a doubt these features are what makes our Smoky Mountain community so special.

Likewise, when we vacation, My wife Karen and I like to find something different from what we enjoy at home here in East Tennessee. One of our favorite places to visit is New England and in particular Boston and the idyllic communities of mid-coast Maine.

Fresh blueberry muffins, real maple syrup, and freshly caught Maine lobsters are what bring me back to this part of the country almost every fall. A little cooler, the autumn preview is always attractive to me but that isn't necessarily my wife's primary reason for coming back. Karen's favorite pastime is without a doubt shopping and she is a world class performer in this particular sport. If you have any doubts, I'll add a photo later of where I am as I write this blog entry.

If you are looking for a Gatlinburg area second home getaway to enjoy milder weather than the northeast winters provide, or maybe a break from the breakneck yankee pace of life, please contact us. Just one warning: Don't come to the Smoky Mountains looking for fresh lobster, blueberries, or maple syrup. We don't do any of those very well! What we DO excel in providing is an environment with exceptionally low taxes, mild weather, spectacular scenery, and a community that is remarkably safe.

The Market Doesn't Care!

2009-09-19T18:19:00.004-05:00

Those of us who have been in Sevier County a long time (nearly 15 years in our case) have seen lots of very good periods for Gatlinburg area real estate. In fact, until 2007 even people who have lived here as many as 50 years had never seen a real down year. For this reason, a lot of would-be sellers are suffering from a little disbelief and some are actually in a pure state of denial. I regularly speak with property owners who are dismayed that the property they bought in 2005 isn't worth (nearly 5 years later) what they paid for it. To be sure, this isn't the case for all types of real estate and some categories are doing much better than others. Small permanent residences (not cabins) are holding their own pretty well with values about equal to the peak prices of 2006. Larger (2500+ square foot) rental cabins have been particularly hard hit and are sharply lower than they were during the price bubble which peaked in late 2006. Unfortunately our Great Smoky Mountain Association of Realtors database no longer has 2006 information so we can only go back to 2007 results. 2009 sales prices for these larger log and log look homes have declined by 21.48% when compared with 2007 sales. This is a sharp decline indeed when one considers that during the same period smaller (1100-1300 square foot) 3 bedroom homes have only slightly declined.

Sadly, with foreclosures still driving the Smoky Mountain real estate cabin market prices haven't yet started back up. These numbers are what led me this week to gently explain to yet another frustrated seller that "The Market doesn't care what sales price you need." This is of course not at all a fun conversation to have. I do however feel that it is better to disappoint someone on the front end rather than giving them unrealistic expectations only to be unsuccessful in a doomed to failure attempt to sell their property. So many homes in our Gatlinburg/Pigeon Forge/Sevierville market are wildly overpriced and simply will not sell in this current environment. Prices will eventually start back up and I think we are getting close to the bottom of the market as volume is starting to improve, although only ever so slightly.

If you are looking for honest information and not empty promises we look forward to working with you.

We Welcome Nantahala Outdoor Center to Gatlinburg

2009-09-16T05:48:00.005-05:00

Nantahala Outdoor Center (NOC), headquartered in nearby Bryson City, North Carolina is making dramatic progress on the construction of their new Great Outpost store in Gatlinburg which is slated to open in 2010. The 18,000 square foot store will be located on the long idle, but unmistakably prime real estate where for many years the original Open Hearth Restaurant was located. Bordering the Great Smoky Mountains National Park at the south end of Gatlinburg, this is another key to the continued re-development of downtown Gatlinburg. When the Gatlinburg Gateway development at the north end of Gatlinburg is considered, it is clear that Gatlinburg is definitely in a strong growth phase, despite the concerns of a lackluster national economy.

According to their website, NOC's Great Outpost will feature a wide selection of top outdoor apparel, camping, climbing, cycling, paddling, hiking and travel brands. When it opens it will become the largest retail store in Gatlinburg, creating approximately 55 jobs. As Gatlinburg's outdoor activity center, NOC's Great Outpost will serve as a launching pad for Smokies recreation, offering a diverse range of affordable, family-oriented outdoor activities in the National Park like whitewater rafting, whitewater and flatwater kayaking, fly-fishing, guided hiking, mountain biking, outdoor education classes and nature tours. It will also feature educational exhibits on outdoor education, the environment, and connect guests with outdoor clubs and conservation groups that help protect the Smokies.

The 55 new jobs may well be the most important aspect of this news. With a local economy that has struggled somewhat in 2009 the much needed jobs and the revenue that will flow from this new business is a major bright point in our city's future. Here is what the project site looked like yesterday when I shot these two photos. Pay special attention to the quality of the stone work on the new steps that have been built.

It's a Long Time Until April!

2009-09-15T07:04:00.003-05:00

A friend who is a local's local, born and raised here in the Gatlinburg area commented to me recently the title of this post. What he was referring to is that many individuals (and businesses) here in the East Tennessee Smoky Mountains rely on a cash surplus built during the more profitable summer months to survive the much slower winter season. This is particularly true of lodging businesses, retail shops, and restaurants. The April to October period is MUCH more profitable for these operations than the November to March time frame and in fact many of these businesses generate the lion share of their revenues during the summer months when families with children can freely travel. Sadly, the economy's blues have impacted Sevier County this summer and most of our area's attractions are reporting receipts down 30-35% when compared to last year. This is especially true of Pigeon Forge's Dollywood which , with it's high priced tickets, is off dramatically from their plan. for the businesses and their employees that haven't had a great summer season, the idea of a typically (or worse) slow winter period is not at all welcome. Fortunately, the real estate business here in the Smokies is not as seasonal as it once was and we have had an excellent summer. In fact, the Gatlinburg foreclosure real estate opportunities continue to be excellent and we are in the process of setting sales records at our real estate firm. For businesses (and individuals) that haven't enjoyed this sort of success it may be a long winter indeed...

Meet the Schoenfield Team!

2009-09-14T05:00:00.001-05:00

I really couldn't do all of this by myself! Here is a quick bio on each of our team members:

Jeff Schoenfield: Team Leader, company co-owner, and general flunky it is my job to make the rain. Okay, that is really God's job but in the real estate industry my position is frequently referred to as that of "Rainmaker".

Karen Schoenfield: Company co-owner with me, and my loving spouse, Karen no longer maintains an active real estate license but does do a great job of managing our books making sure that all of our vendors and employees get paid on time.

Kim Breeden: Office manager, Kim is responsible for everything other than accounting around the office and she even helps with some parts of that. Kim's primary focus however is on transaction management as she is the team member that shepherds transactions from the point of contract signing to closing. A veteran of our Gatlinburg real estate industry, Kim is a true Godsend as are all of our team members.

Suzy Compton-Hays: Our Senior Buyer Specialist, Suzy Compton has been with our office for over 10 years which is an eternity in this business. Starting with us as our receptionist, Suzy has during her time here worked all of the jobs in our office and done each and every one with excellence. As our Senior Buyer's agent, Suzy and her husband Mark work primarily with buyers to help our clients find the best property at the most attractive price possible.

Mark Hays: Suzy's husband, Mark and Suzy team up to provide excellent client service for all of their customers. Mark is a committed professional who brings vitality to this business that is remarkable and has done a great job for our team.

Cindy Hopson: Working strictly with buyers, Cindy brings high energy and a pledge to work only for the buyer's best interests. Cindy is a great employee, but she is an even better daughter and is also the mother of our oldest grandchild Blake!

Josie LaFollette: Our technical valuation analyst, Josie is responsible for maintaining most of the mountains of paperwork that our foreclosure company clients require. Josie toils hours and hours behind her desk in front of a computer screen and in her spare time she is completing her college degree. She's a very busy lady and we really appreciate her!

Brandy Schoenfield: (no relation, just kidding) Brandy is the newest member of our team and is tasked with keeping up with all of our listings and getting all of the information into multiple databases and MLS services. With nearly 60 listings she too is a busy lady but her greatest claim to fame is that she is the mother of our other two grandchildren, Gavin and Anelise!

You Want to Build What??, Where???

2009-09-12T05:00:00.002-05:00

Every once and a while an entirely new degree of Smoky Mountain developer ineptness is discovered and I think I have found evidence of just that. During the peak of our cabin boom, Gatlinburg area log homes were selling at a breakneck pace, often to buyers who had never personally seen the properties! As the mania grew, previously never imagined prices and locations became commonplace and literally thousands of cabin lots were created in ever more bizarre places. Suddenly, much like in the kindergarten game of musical chairs, the music stopped and everyone was forced to scramble to find a seat. The repercussions of this bubble are still being felt as foreclosures continue to drive our market with no end in sight, at least not in the near-term. The recent bank foreclosure property assignment we received takes the cake however for sheer stupidity.

On the romantic sounding Wesley Way, Sevierville address sits a huge home with a truly dramatic mountain view. Unfortunately, it is over 20 miles away from ANYTHING. With only 3 homes in the entire large subdivision and only a poorly maintained 1.5 mile long gravel road for access there really is not much to brag about here. Although we don't have our bank foreclosure property priced yet, the hapless developer is trying to sell a nearly identical property in the same development via this listing. If you would like to know exactly where this property is and how to get there you can find it via this Google Map. If you REALLY want to get away from it ALL please contact us!

Better Late than Never - Gatlinburg Real Estate Sales Results Continue to Improve!

2009-09-11T16:46:00.003-05:00

Gatlinburg area Realtors are continuing to report August, 2009 sales even though we are now 11 days into September. I'm not complaining however because the revised numbers are a little better than I had initially forecast. Looks like the final number for August residential sales in our Smoky Mountain real estate market are now going to be closer to 130 as we currently have 128 sales reported. This value equals the performance of a year ago so for two months in a row we have not been below the previous year's values and that hasn't been done for a LONG time. To view the full table and my analysis of the trend for residential sales in our Gatlinburg area real estate market please click here. With September/October looking very strong for our team (I alone currently have 15 pending sales) we may have finally seen the low point for residential unit sales here in the East Tennessee Smokies. Stay tuned, as always, September's initial sales results will be available on this blog October 1st.

ALWAYS, ALWAYS, ALWAYS get a Survey!!!

2009-09-10T20:22:00.005-05:00

After my recent post about the home built directly over a sewer line easement you would think that I wouldn't have another survey story for at least a little while but here it is. My client, the foreclosing bank, is selling a home in the Sterling Springs cabin community in Sevierville. We have a ready, willing, and able buyer who smartly decided to obtain a survey. Here is a link to the survey they received. Congratulations to my friend Tim Wallace who owns Wallace Surveying. For a very reasonable $250.00 the buyer was able to avoid what could have been a very major problem.

We are now working to get the property line moved and the adjoining owner is being very cooperative. There is however no assurance that the adjoining owners in other cases will be as helpful. In fact, if the house (or more commonly a driveway) is over the property line it can be a 5 figure expense to make things right. Just like any other form of insurance, you don't really need a survey until you need it and then you REALLY need it. Because we live in the mountains here in the Gatlinburg area, placing a house isn't as simple as it is on flat land and builders do make mistakes (as proven via the link above). Take my advice, get a survey, and we'll both sleep better!

Gatlinburg Area Foreclosures Up Again in August

2009-09-05T17:14:00.004-05:00

It is abundantly clear to me that Gatlinburg real estate prices will not begin to recover significantly until the deluge of foreclosure properties dumped onto the market each month subsides. Unfortunately, that is not yet the trend and as long as foreclosures of Sevier County properties continue at the current pace prices will continue to be flat at best. Below is a chart showing the number of foreclosure filings (not including time share properties) by month for the past several years. As you can see, August's 135 new foreclosure filings, while less than June's record number, are back above the number we saw in July. This indicates that, as sad as this makes me, we are still experiencing an upward trend in the number of Sevier County real estate foreclosure filings.

The market supply of residential properties in our Great Smoky Mountain Association of Realtors database when compared with sales during the past 12 months is still measured in years, not months. A real estate market is generally considered to be evenly balanced between buyers and sellers when the supply is around 6 months. By comparing the 1268 homes sold during the past year in our East Tennessee market with our current market supply of 3867 a market supply of 3.05 YEARS is revealed. While sales are slowly trending upward, prices will probably take a while longer to start moving upward again. I am still very positive on the long term aspects of our Gatlinburg area real estate market. What else can you think of besides real estate that is selling for much less than it did two years ago? I firmly believe that we will see serious inflation over the next several years and that we will eventually look back at the current market conditions and say "Why didn't we buy more then??".

Really, We Do Wear Shoes Here in Gatlinburg!

2009-09-03T09:00:00.003-05:00

One of the persistent myths about the South, Tennessee, and possibly our particular community here in the Gatlinburg area is that people here are still living like hillbillies. Old stereotypes die hard but my personal belief is that people from other parts of the country have to have some reason to explain why they wouldn't want to live here in the Smoky Mountains of East Tennessee. We are exceedingly blessed to live in a safe and spectacularly beautiful part of the country that also has VERY low taxes, a mild climate, and so much more going for it. The pace here is a little slower than some other parts of the nation and in my opinion that isn't all bad. In fact, in light of what is currently transpiring around the country being a few years behind might be looked at as a very good thing indeed.

All of this being said I'm not so sure that we don't occasionally do some things that cause the myths about us slow-talking Southerners to persist. I recently had one of these events that left me almost speechless which as those who know me best will affirm is not an easy thing to do. One of our recent Gatlinburg real estate foreclosure listings was priced well and almost immediately put under contract with multiple offers. As the would-be buyer was pre-approved the only steps needed to complete the sale were a home inspection, title search, and then a closing. The home inspection found a couple of items that were easily remedied but the title search was not by any means the normal uneventful process we are accustomed to.

Seems that the home in question is built directly over a subdivision sewer line easement which is of course a huge problem. In the event that the sewer line ever had to be serviced the home owner's association would have the right (and even the obligation) to dig right through the house to get to the underground line and make whatever repairs were necessary. The excavator would have no obligation to make repairs to the home and this could happen whenever (if ever) the sewer line required service.

The unintelligence of this situation is truly remarkable. Somehow, a subdivision plan was approved that had a septic line under a house site or possibly the home was built on the wrong site. Regardless of how this occurred, the title search conducted as a part of the initial sale of the property should have detected this huge flaw and halted that sale but it didn't. Whether you want to blame the engineering company that created the subdivision plan, the city of Gatlinburg which approved it, the surveyor who located the house site, or the contractor who built it someone made a gigantic error and now we have a house that is basically unable to be sold and would make a great spot for a small neighborhood mini-park.

The crowning stupidity in this story is that although the initial buyer went away we now have a second party who wishes to buy this flawed property KNOWING of the existence and the issues caused by the placement of the sewer easement and the home structure. He is willing to pay cash (no bank will lend on this property due to the easement issue) and we are expecting an offer from his agent today. No word yet on whether this new buyer is from East Tennessee or not...

The Vanishing Upper Bracket Residential Property Sale

2009-09-02T20:00:00.000-05:00

After recently reviewing the market for two potential new listing clients who own upper bracket homes, I found a somewhat discouraging fact. While there have been 841 residential sales reported during 2009 in our Great Smoky Mountain Association of Realtors MLS by area agents, there has been a very noticeable near absence of upper bracket homes sold. Maybe a more accurate way of putting this is that very few homes have sold at what we used to consider an upper bracket price level. Even very nice properties are selling at more affordable prices but there just aren't many $500k+ sales occurring:

Jan-Aug

Sales Price 2009

$500,000 - $599,999 = 9

$600,000 - $699,999 = 7

$700,000 - $799,999 = 3

$800,000+ = 2

Total of sales $500,000+ = 21

What do all of these numbers indicate? The picture becomes somewhat more meaningful when you consider there are currently 352 unsold homes for sale in our Gatlinburg area priced above $500,000. My belief is that in a challenging economy not many buyers are willing to invest very large sums of money into even attractively priced Smoky Mountain residential real estate. If you attempt to forecast full year sales for all of 2009 it is really just a guess but during the past 12 months our board reported sales of only 37 half million dollar and up Gatlinburg area (actually the entire MLS) residential properties. This means that we have nearly a 10 year supply of these Smoky Mountain luxury homes. If you have one of these fantastic homes for sale you will need to be very patient unless you are willing to accept a fire-sale type price. I have advised owners of homes in this price range who don't have to sell to wait for a more seller-friendly market rather than sell at prices that feel pretty much like they are giving their homes away. Of course, if you have to sell (or are a bank) you will have to take what the current very difficult market environment gives. There are some fantastic bargains out there for buyers and all of the sales reported this year have been just that - Very aggressively priced properties that sold for well under the value they would have brought a couple of years ago. To search all of the sales reported by our Great Smoky Mountain Association of Realtors MLS database during the past 12 months, please visit our http://www.gatlinburg-homes.com/ site sold property search via this link.

Gatlinburg Real Estate Residential Sales Disappoint

2009-09-01T18:40:00.013-05:00

Only the most preliminary August 2009 sales results for our Gatlinburg area real estate market are in at this time but the numbers we do have reported so far are somewhat disappointing. After July's 139 residential sales (the first positive year over year comparison since early in 2006) I had hoped we might see the same type progress in our Smoky Mountain real estate market in August 2009 with another year to year gain in units sold.

Sadly, this does not appear likely at this time because as of this evening we only have 108 units reported as being sold according to our Great Smoky Mountain Association of Realtors MLS database. As I always do, it is important to note that not all sales are reported yet so these preliminary numbers are somewhat misleading. My estimate is that when all of the dust settles we will probably have around 120-125 completed residential transactions for the month. To see an updated version of the above chart please click here. That's better than the current number but still below the level of August 2008. While I personally am very much blessed to be having a record year with nearly 60 closed transaction sides so far in 2009 the approximately 500 agents in our market this year have combined for fewer than 900 reported residential sales during the entire 2009 year. This is why so many of my fellow real estate agents have had to quit the business entirely (at the height of the market we had about 800 actively licensed real estate agents in our board) or find other employment and utilize their real estate license for only part-time activity. With an average of fewer than 2 sales per agent in 2009 most of these people would do much better at any job. Working as a greeter at Wal-Mart or even asking "Would you like fries with that?" at McDonald's would earn them a better living with easier hours and much less stress. For a very funny completed job application by a prospective McDonald's employee (quite possibly done by a future Smoky Mountain Realtor) please click here.
We are very grateful for the success that we have been blessed with and are pleased to announce that we put another Gatlinburg home under contract over last weekend. This new transaction brings our current pending sales back up to ten even after 3 of our formerly pending sales closed last week. If you would like to have this same commitment to performance for the sale of your Smoky Mountain property or in a search for the perfect piece of Gatlinburg area real estate here in our Sevier County community please let me know.

No, We Don't Just Work With Gatlinburg Real Estate!

2009-08-30T04:00:00.000-05:00

I am often asked "Do you work only in the Gatlinburg area?" by people I meet or even those that I go to church with or know through other means. The answer is an unqualified "No!" but I usually try to be a little more subtle than that. The fact is that we handle real estate all over the Smoky Mountains of East Tennessee but try to stay primarily in the Sevier County area. Here's the breakdown for my residential sold listings so far in 2009:

Gatlinburg/Chalet Village - 16 units sold
Sevierville/Boyd's Creek/New Center - 16 units sold
Pigeon Forge/Wears Valley/Bluff Mountain - 15 units sold
All other areas (Knoxville, Cosby, and Kodak) total 4 more sales

As you can see, we cover all of the Sevier County area and even occasionally go outside of the county to neighboring Blount, Knox, and even Cocke County in each of which we currently have as yet unsold listings. While we aren't eager to go much further (a couple of my current listings are over 30 miles from our office!) we will go to almost any length necessary to please our clients!