tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-86488576881109386712024-02-26T23:02:33.103+05:30Lee's DhabaIndia Equities, Economy and Global Financial MarketsLeehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04963564672968575642noreply@blogger.comBlogger230125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8648857688110938671.post-22154057826918082009-04-08T05:09:00.000+05:302009-04-08T05:09:47.647+05:30Humor: World in Pictures<div class="" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/SdvY2in7nqI/AAAAAAAAA4g/MNBqydrTW24/s1600-h/31107-4646Mohammed.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><br />
</a></div><div class="" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Buddhists are upset over this cartoon depiction of the "Buddha":</div><div class="" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><div class="" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/SdvY2in7nqI/AAAAAAAAA4g/MNBqydrTW24/s1600/31107-4646Mohammed.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/SdvY2in7nqI/AAAAAAAAA4g/MNBqydrTW24/s400/31107-4646Mohammed.jpg" /></a></div><div class="" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><div class="" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">The US is on top of the Economic crisis:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/Sdvc1A3uVbI/AAAAAAAAA5A/bh1THH1rPL8/s1600-h/CoyoteChart.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/Sdvc1A3uVbI/AAAAAAAAA5A/bh1THH1rPL8/s400/CoyoteChart.jpg" /></a></div><div class="" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div>The new administration is clarifying the economic situation...here is the illustration:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/SdvdEoh11ZI/AAAAAAAAA5I/hwE36CeNr18/s1600/economist-financial-fantasy-land.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/SdvdEoh11ZI/AAAAAAAAA5I/hwE36CeNr18/s400/economist-financial-fantasy-land.png" /></a></div><div class="" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><div class="" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">President Obama has a new symbol for the US Economy:</div><div class="" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/SdvcoZpwY0I/AAAAAAAAA4w/kdO460_8ikE/s1600/cards.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/SdvcoZpwY0I/AAAAAAAAA4w/kdO460_8ikE/s400/cards.jpg" /></a></div><div class="" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><div class="" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><div class="" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Unemployment in the US is rising...and rising:</div><div class="" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/Sdvf9BRNv7I/AAAAAAAAA5o/fh43e_nwvJk/s1600-h/Unemp.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/Sdvf9BRNv7I/AAAAAAAAA5o/fh43e_nwvJk/s400/Unemp.png" /></a></div><div class="" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><div class="" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">New cities are cropping up for the Unemployed...despondent and decrepit:</div><div class="" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/SdvdQrLWI8I/AAAAAAAAA5Q/HNEQEuzKsk4/s1600-h/tentcity.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/SdvdQrLWI8I/AAAAAAAAA5Q/HNEQEuzKsk4/s400/tentcity.jpg" /></a></div><div class="" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><div class="" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Here is the new curve for the up coming Economy Recovery:</div><div class="" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/SdvdXKhyAEI/AAAAAAAAA5Y/g6j6RbhxlYU/s1600-h/Sinewave.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/SdvdXKhyAEI/AAAAAAAAA5Y/g6j6RbhxlYU/s320/Sinewave.png" /></a></div><div class="" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><div class="" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Is this a Bear market rally?...yes, if you look at the past as a guide:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/SdvdhaLRMnI/AAAAAAAAA5g/KyRwPHvmRE8/s1600-h/3-27-09-daily-sp-swing.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/SdvdhaLRMnI/AAAAAAAAA5g/KyRwPHvmRE8/s400/3-27-09-daily-sp-swing.gif" /></a></div><div class="" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><div class="" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><div class="" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Audience showed up...where is the act?</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/SdvcfRzIhSI/AAAAAAAAA4o/KHcndMBJdb0/s1600-h/Penguins.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/SdvcfRzIhSI/AAAAAAAAA4o/KHcndMBJdb0/s400/Penguins.png" /></a></div><div class="" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><div class="" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><div class="" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">From the Indian Mooncraft Chandrayaan 1: in orbit around the moon looking at the Earth...India in the middle...how appropriate:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/SdvdEoh11ZI/AAAAAAAAA5I/hwE36CeNr18/s1600-h/economist-financial-fantasy-land.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/SdvcoZpwY0I/AAAAAAAAA4w/kdO460_8ikE/s1600-h/cards.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/SdvcxRVCDnI/AAAAAAAAA44/8h_8GfPl-jg/s1600-h/Chandrayaan.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/SdvcxRVCDnI/AAAAAAAAA44/8h_8GfPl-jg/s400/Chandrayaan.jpg" /></a></div>Leehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04963564672968575642noreply@blogger.com17tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8648857688110938671.post-40855392224701962112009-04-07T23:17:00.000+05:302009-04-07T23:17:54.911+05:30Indian Markets: Casino is Open...BewareThe Indian and Global equity markets are flying ....up, up and away; Equity markets are supposed to anticipate economic performance which translates into earnings.<br />
<br />
Below is a potpourri of articles illuminating the state of the global economy:<br />
<br />
<a href="http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/04/be-prepared-for-extraordinary.html"><span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 12pt;">Corporate Default Rates...</span></a><br />
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<a href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/less-awful-economy-good-day-for-markets/">Less Awful Economy= Good Markets...</a><br />
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<a href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/mark-to-make-believe-rally/">Mark to Make Believe...</a><br />
<br />
<a href="http://blogs.ft.com/maverecon/2009/04/how-the-fasb-aids-and-abets-obfuscation-by-wonky-zombie-banks/">FASB and Zombie Banks...</a><br />
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<a href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/generation-of-denial/">Generation of Denial..</a><br />
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<a href="http://feedproxy.google.com/%7Er/NakedCapitalism/%7E3/HXAXtsEL4k4/guest-post-non-farm-payrolls-report.html">Unemployment Statistics...</a><br />
<br />
I take the view of the Appropriation Bill from Congress which says:<br />
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<a href="http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/04/be-prepared-for-extraordinary.html">Be Prepared for extraordinary crcumstances</a><br />
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While this rally seems to have firm buying I cannot see the light at the end of the tunnel..those that do, please make sure it is not an on-coming train before you proceed.<br />
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The charts are no longer friendly...<br />
<br />
<br />
<img src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/SdmkrUzF_vI/AAAAAAAAA4c/SBiYBtulYCY/%5BUNSET%5D.png?imgmax=800" style="max-width: 800px;" />Leehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04963564672968575642noreply@blogger.com21tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8648857688110938671.post-25093216342701967292009-03-31T18:08:00.000+05:302009-03-31T18:08:28.174+05:30India Economy: More News..Sigh<a href="http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/Economy/Indicators/Global_crisis_battering_developing_world_World_Bank/articleshow/4339915.cms">Global Crisis battering Economies</a><br />
<blockquote>The World Bank said its latest projections show the global economy shrinking by 1.7 per cent in 2009. "This would be the first decline in world output since World War II," the bank said.</blockquote><a href="http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/World-Bank-predicts-slower-growth-for-India/rssarticleshow/4339546.cms">World Bank: Slower Growth in India</a><br />
<blockquote>As the global economy deteriorates sharply, the World Bank has projected a slower 4 per cent growth for India in 2009</blockquote><br />
India and China Bond Markets: almost 10 to1 size difference. <br />
<blockquote>India Bond Market size : USD 450 billion<br />
China Bond Market size: USD 2.18 trillion</blockquote><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/SdIFtSwmkZI/AAAAAAAAA4A/2WzF4u2W6aM/s1600-h/ChinaBond.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/SdIFtSwmkZI/AAAAAAAAA4A/2WzF4u2W6aM/s320/ChinaBond.jpg" /></a> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><div class="" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div style="color: red;">Humor:</div><br />
Wall Street- Washington Nexus:</div><div class="" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><div class="" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> <a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/SdIG0YKlhfI/AAAAAAAAA4I/tlB_Fo7pbTo/s1600-h/BonuseAIG.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/SdIG0YKlhfI/AAAAAAAAA4I/tlB_Fo7pbTo/s400/BonuseAIG.jpg" /></a></div><div class="" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><div class="" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">USA: Rising Unemployment</div><div class="" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/SdILBlRM4hI/AAAAAAAAA4Q/pKGDkNFycKQ/s1600-h/Idle.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/SdILBlRM4hI/AAAAAAAAA4Q/pKGDkNFycKQ/s320/Idle.gif" /></a> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Pakistan PM Gilani: from <a href="http://www.thespoof.com/news/spoof.cfm?headline=s3i47125">Spoof and Parody</a></div><blockquote><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">"We want to be everybody's friend and we want to be India's friend and with friends like us why does India need enemies"</div></blockquote><br />
<a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/03/31/54236/cramer-calls-a-bottom-again/?source=rss">Cramer calls a bottom (again)</a> --what a clown...this is CNBC<br />
<blockquote>- <a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/66756-financials-etfs-seven-weeks-after-cramer-s-bottom" title="Seeking Alpha - Financial ETFs: Seven weeks after 'Cramer's Bottom'">January 10, 2008</a> - Financials have hit rock bottom.<br />
- <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/2008/8/you-bought-that-cramer-bottom-crap-dow-headed-below-10-000" title="BusinessInsider - You bought that Cramer 'bottom' crap?">August 12, 2008</a> - The bear market is dead.<br />
- <a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/10/15/17071/the-cramer-indicator/" title="FT Alphaville - The Cramer indicator">October 15, 2008</a> - This is the beginning of the end of the crisis.</blockquote>Leehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04963564672968575642noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8648857688110938671.post-48519303591717785632009-03-31T15:38:00.000+05:302009-03-31T15:38:54.154+05:30India Economy: Rough Ride AheadA potpourri of news articles...No Good news forthcoming. <br />
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<a href="http://www.oecd.org/document/51/0,3343,en_2649_34487_42464883_1_1_1_1,00.html">OECD Country GDP (4.3%) in 2009</a><br />
<blockquote>Economic activity is expected to plummet by an average 4.3 percent in the OECD area in 2009 while by the end of 2010 unemployment rates in many countries will reach double figures for the first time since the early 1990s, according to the OECD’s Economic Outlook Interim Report. <br />
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In the large emerging economies activity is slowing as access to international credit dries up, commodity prices fall and export demand weakens. Brazil’s GDP is expected to decline by 0.3 percent in 2009 while Russia’s is projected to fall 5.6 percent. Growth in India will ease back to 4.3 percent this year and in China to 6.3 percent.</blockquote><a href="http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/Economy/Indicators/India_needs_sustainable_stimulus_growth_forecast_5_ADB/articleshow/4338272.cms">India growth 5% in 2009: ADB</a><br />
<blockquote>"Expansionary fiscal policies could impair the confidence of investors unless clear signals are given that the present large deficits are truly temporary," he said. <br />
<br />
ADB urged the Indian government to review tax policy, the quality of public spending and the effectiveness of public programmes to ensure that it has room for the infrastructure and social sector spending that is necessary for achieving rapid, longer-term inclusive growth.</blockquote><a href="http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Indian-financial-system-bankable-RBI/rssarticleshow/4338744.cms">Indian Banks Strong: RBI</a><br />
<blockquote>The high-level committee on financial sector assessment headed by RBI deputy governor Rakesh Mohan also forecast economic growth of 8% in the medium term.<br />
<br />
"The capital-to-risk-weighted assets (CRAR) would reduce from 13% to 10.9% for a 244-basis point shock," it said, adding that only in case of 20 banks, which account for 36% of total assets, would the CRAR slip below the regulatory 9%. </blockquote>Why are Indian Policy makers seeing rosy futures compared to their global counter-parts: No one believes the 8% growth forecast...and if 36% of the banking system was under-capitalized in a further downturn I would be worried and not talking about stability.<br />
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But hey, that's me...Leehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04963564672968575642noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8648857688110938671.post-91331076228864561502009-03-31T12:51:00.001+05:302009-03-31T12:51:58.664+05:30India Markets: Technical ExplanationI have not seen any evidence yet that the economy is bottoming....anywhere...and the theory of De-Coupling is now firmly placed in the trash bin.<br />
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So what are we witnessing?<br />
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A technical, selling exhaustion rally...which will be followed by increasing volatility and then the inevitable thud. The rally is past...the volatility is upon us...the thud is coming.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/SdHD8WpeIyI/AAAAAAAAA34/ZMCXJ_PMd2M/s1600-h/getImageFromSession.php" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/SdHD8WpeIyI/AAAAAAAAA34/ZMCXJ_PMd2M/s400/getImageFromSession.php" /></a></div><br />
<span style="color: red;">Readings:</span><br />
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<a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/128472-seven-uncomfortable-predictions-for-the-economy?source=article_sb_popular">Seven Uncomfortable Predictions</a><br />
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<a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/128542-is-china-today-the-u-s-of-1929?source=feed">Is China Today the U.S. of 1929? </a>Leehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04963564672968575642noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8648857688110938671.post-44992380239559646122009-03-30T15:52:00.001+05:302009-03-30T16:03:06.859+05:30Global Markets: Lies, and Damn Lies<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/SdCZihSI_2I/AAAAAAAAA3o/qCVSZ6Ix558/s1600-h/SS2009.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/SdCZihSI_2I/AAAAAAAAA3o/qCVSZ6Ix558/s320/SS2009.png" /></a></div>The Internation Space Station with the limb of Earth as Backdrop. Breath-taking. (Second brightest object in the Night-time sky after Moon). <br />
(<span style="font-size: x-small;"><b><i>click image to enlarge</i></b></span>)<br />
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/SdCaWA34UmI/AAAAAAAAA3w/n2ehJA5ymV0/s1600-h/evil-kniev-quad-form.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/SdCaWA34UmI/AAAAAAAAA3w/n2ehJA5ymV0/s320/evil-kniev-quad-form.png" /></a>Market Comment: I continue to own April Puts; strikes at Nifty 3000, 2800, 2600 and 2500....this rally is complete nonsense....but, I am not naked short because when there is malfeasance by official bodies, better to limit your risks....<span style="color: red;">SO I OWN PUTS.</span><br />
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<div style="color: black;">I am tired of being negative...but the continued disaster known as "official policy response" to the economic meltdown is reinforcing the negativity.</div><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/SdCYiwzMUpI/AAAAAAAAA3g/gzNSpFtgfmk/s1600-h/diversification-2000-present.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/SdCYiwzMUpI/AAAAAAAAA3g/gzNSpFtgfmk/s320/diversification-2000-present.gif" /></a></div><br />
The G-20 is coming....yawn....a boondogle and a security risk for Officials..nothing more.<br />
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Citi and Bank of America etc...talked of higher profits this year..so far...not so in March 2009...turns out Jan and Feb 2009 were better because of special payments by AIG under CDS contracts...one time payments at tax payer expense...a big lie...traders and investors went for it.<a href="http://optionarmageddon.ml-implode.com/2009/03/27/the-ultimate-bait-switch/"> US Banks Bait and Switch</a><br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/SdCYeV9UQ6I/AAAAAAAAA3Y/LIE5uF6xaQg/s1600-h/Our+World+Today.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/SdCYeV9UQ6I/AAAAAAAAA3Y/LIE5uF6xaQg/s320/Our+World+Today.gif" /></a></div>There is the joke called the US Presidency; enough said. Krugman says the plans to solve the financial system crisis are so bad "he is filled with Despair".<br />
<div style="color: red;"><br />
<i> Articles to Read and Ponder while you own Puts, sit back and relax: <br />
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<a href="http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/India-dedicated-funds-witness-outflows/rssarticleshow/4329029.cms">India Funds witness Outflows</a><br />
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<a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200905/imf-advice">The Quiet Coup </a><br />
<a href="http://draft.blogger.com/goog_1238406060172"></a><br />
<a href="http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/03/geithner-we-dont-need-no-stinkin-contingencies.php">US: Plans perfect, no back-up Needed...Hahahahahah</a><br />
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<a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/25/AR2009032502226_pf.html">World's scariest Emerging Market: USA</a><br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/SdCYW0g2D_I/AAAAAAAAA3Q/W4JaFWP7ELU/s1600-h/2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/SdCYW0g2D_I/AAAAAAAAA3Q/W4JaFWP7ELU/s320/2.jpg" /></a></div>Leehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04963564672968575642noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8648857688110938671.post-10861983814652914562009-03-22T23:41:00.001+05:302009-03-22T23:43:30.627+05:30Humour...sometimes more accurate than editorialsMarket Comment:..Expect continued sideways action...volatility to increase as the week progresses....increased risk of break to the downside by end of week.<br />
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Last Tuesday, as President Obama got off the helicopter in front of the White House, he was carrying a baby piglet under each arm.<br />
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The squared away Marine guard snaps to attention, Salutes and says:<br />
<div style="color: blue;">"Nice pigs, sir."</div><br />
The President replies:<br />
<div style="color: blue;">"These are not pigs...these are authentic Arkansas Razorback Hogs. I got one for Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and I got one for Speaker of The House Nancy Pelosi."</div><br />
The squared away Marine again snaps to attention, Salutes and says,<br />
<div style="color: red;">"Excellent trade, sir."</div><div style="color: red;"></div><div style="color: red;"><span style="color: black;"><br />
Congress/Obama shocked at AIG bonuses: A distraction while they loot</span></div><div style="color: red;"><span style="color: black;"> </span> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/ScXgA7OI6YI/AAAAAAAAA2g/cGT_O0xHMi4/s1600-h/8.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/ScXgA7OI6YI/AAAAAAAAA2g/cGT_O0xHMi4/s320/8.png" style="cursor: move;" /></a></div><div style="color: black;"></div><div style="color: black;"><br />
Obama is concerned about the bonuses...the bailout is 1000 times bigger..no problems there:<br />
</div><div style="color: red;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/ScXin8qwxUI/AAAAAAAAA2o/_Ch4XQxdbrw/s1600-h/5.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/ScXin8qwxUI/AAAAAAAAA2o/_Ch4XQxdbrw/s320/5.jpg" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div style="color: black;"></div><div style="color: black;"><br />
In the US of A, you no longer need the mask and gun; bankruptcy, fraud and incompetence will do:</div><div style="color: black;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/ScXjRXxtVRI/AAAAAAAAA2w/hv81bBlfMkY/s1600-h/13.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/ScXjRXxtVRI/AAAAAAAAA2w/hv81bBlfMkY/s320/13.jpg" style="cursor: move;" /></a></div><div style="color: black;"><br />
According to Congress, AIG now stands for: <span style="color: red;">A</span>rrogance, <span style="color: red;">I</span>ncompetence and <span style="color: red;">G</span>reed...what are the kids learning:<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/ScXkaV4cnJI/AAAAAAAAA24/itjOvQXmkeU/s1600-h/1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/ScXkaV4cnJI/AAAAAAAAA24/itjOvQXmkeU/s320/1.jpg" style="cursor: move;" /></a></div><br />
Finally a graphic about the guy who would not accept anything until Citibank was profitable, but pocketed $10.8 million anyway:</div><div style="color: red;"></div><div style="color: red;"></div><div style="color: red;"></div><div style="color: red;"></div><div style="color: red;"></div><div style="color: red;"></div><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/ScZ9kTlAVwI/AAAAAAAAA3A/_vCtRTBK3EA/s1600-h/banditlieslikeamaskeddog.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/ScZ9kTlAVwI/AAAAAAAAA3A/_vCtRTBK3EA/s320/banditlieslikeamaskeddog.jpg" style="cursor: move;" /></a></div><br />
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What does arrogance, incompetence and greed lead to: well an Economic Tsunami which is only now hitting American Shores and will get bigger as 2009 progresses:<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/ScZ-WQAuJZI/AAAAAAAAA3I/y-FAbjHBDp0/s1600-h/Tsunami_Phuket3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/ScZ-WQAuJZI/AAAAAAAAA3I/y-FAbjHBDp0/s320/Tsunami_Phuket3.jpg" /></a></div>Leehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04963564672968575642noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8648857688110938671.post-78953109168365246472009-03-22T23:19:00.002+05:302009-03-22T23:28:30.402+05:30India: Neighborhood PolicyDespite India's success in Economic development there has been little impact on our neighbors. India's budget for military expenditure, Education, Infrastructure development and lobbying for political influence have all increased manifold, yet our neighbors are unmoved in their behavior.<br />
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Pakistan is an unmitigated disaster by all measures; yet it continues to behave as a regional power when the reality is that it cannot even control its own territory. Nepal is a disaster, its main income source is Tourism and with its constant violent clashes this industry has gone for a six;yet it continues to irk and irritate the giant at its border. Bangladesh is a disaster and yet it continues to irritate India with its illegal migrations and providing sanctuary to terrorists. All of these countries would benefit enormously by creating friendship with India on the basis of economic development and security...yet they defy all common sense by continuing militant agitation which is costing them generation after lost generation.<br />
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These neighbors of India need to think differently; a new paradigm is required. The blueprint these countries should use is the relationship between Canada and the United States. Despite a border which stretches over 5500 kilometers (today, completely undefended)...a population difference of 10 to 1..economy size which is 10 to 1...these two are the largest trading partners in the world. And a Canadian's definition of himself is: I am not American..that is enough. And a proportion of Americans still believe Canadians live in Igloos...<br />
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And then there is the country to our North, China. What is the basis of the friendship between China and Pakistan? Clearly, the friendship has not led Pakistan along a path to development let alone enlightenment...one can understand Pakistan wanting to make friends with a giant neighbor but why would China want to be friends with a country which can only beg and provide little else...in the last three months alone we have seen the President of Pakistan go begging for money to the IMF, Saudi Arabia, USA and China...<br />
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Pakistan has only one potential friend in the world...and that is India because we are people of the same soil...everyone else will focus on the opportunity to exploit a stupid people with visions of grandeur. In our case, a emotional bond exists...<br />
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It is now clear the Taliban, moderate or extremists, will gain more say in Pakistan. This is a reality which all nations, including India have taken as given. What should India's response be to this development?<br />
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Let us first look at the ambient environment today..a sea change has occurred..<br />
<ol><li>While Kashmir continues to be a sore point between India and Pakistan, it has diminished substantially because of the success of elections and climb down of the Hurriyat.</li>
<li>Furthermore, the developed world economies are in contraction..the effect is being felt in all export-oriented economies...notably China and most of Asia. India is less effected because export forms a smaller part of GDP...but our growth is fueled by capital inflows which depends on world wide prosperity and subsequent search for higher yielding investments.</li>
</ol>So India could use a carrot and stick approach towards China..while China has been using a stick/stick approach... <br />
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<span style="color: red;">The Stick:</span><br />
<blockquote>There are substantial Muslim majority regions in Eastern China which are clamoring for rights...It seems to me that India should find ways to encourage Al Qaeda and Taliban to focus away from India, as a battle already won, and focus on China as a battleground to be conquered.<br />
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After all, China's dalliance with Pakistan has cost India dearly..it is time that the monster that China has coddled should rise and bite it in the arse.</blockquote><span style="color: #38761d;">The Carrot:</span><br />
<blockquote>Increased access to the fastest growing consumer market in the world and investment opportunities for that huge hoard of foreign currency reserves which need some diversification away from the US dollar Treasuries.</blockquote>The carrot is a win-win for all in the region...the stick is an India win- China lose proposition. China may be wise enough to choose the Carrot.Leehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04963564672968575642noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8648857688110938671.post-27955979526050447992009-03-22T15:36:00.000+05:302009-03-22T15:36:44.751+05:30India Cricket: IPL out of India (Part 2)<a href="http://ipl.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/News/News/Congress_washes_hands_off_IPL_shift_says_no_politics_/articleshow/4300090.cms">IPL Shift: Congress says no Politics Involved</a><br />
<blockquote>The decision was taken after state governments of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Delhi and Rajasthan told the organisers that it would be difficult to provide security due to the General elections.</blockquote>One slight problem with this statement: all of the above mentioned states are ruled by the Congress party...Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Bengal, Himachal Pradesh have no problems hosting the IPL....but they are NOT ruled by Congress.<br />
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This is politics and it is rotten..let us hope the Indian polity which is unmoved by performance will be moved by losing its "religion"..and boot these clowns out of office decisively.Leehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04963564672968575642noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8648857688110938671.post-85532216208955375962009-03-22T13:53:00.001+05:302009-03-22T13:54:33.606+05:30India Cricket: IPL out of IndiaIn a rude but deserved slap to the Congress-led UPA government, the BCCI today announced that the IPL tournament will be held in either South Africa or England..(South Africa is my bet). The Congress controlled states Maharashtra and Andra Pradesh refused to give permission because of security concerns...laudable but laughable.<br />
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This Congress-led UPA has managed to bring this country to its knees; the richest cricket tournament in history cannot be held in India because of security concerns...this is unimaginable...and the people of India will deliver their verdict at the polls in April and May. In a country where cricket is religion, the Congress-led UPA is in for carnage at the polls...<br />
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In 2010 India is the host country for the Commonwealth Games....this is an event where the number of athletes will be approximately 5000 compared to 200 for the IPL....would you consent to come to India given the debacle which we have just witnessed.<br />
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Expect a disaster for the Commonwealth Games of 2010...it would not surprise me if that is also moved out of India as participating countries start voicing their concerns, starting NOW.<br />
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My personal view is that the Congress and its boys were holding out for a bigger share of the revenues from IPL...Sharad Pawar decided to show everybody who is BOSS...and he gets my vote.Leehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04963564672968575642noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8648857688110938671.post-77862603176376294592009-03-20T19:48:00.000+05:302009-03-20T19:48:25.221+05:30India Economy: Policy falling behind developmentsTwo years ago, inflation was set to roar as a result of the congress-led UPA administration's populist, profligate budgets. Yet the RBI stood around benignly watching and mimicking the words of the spendthrift FM.<br />
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The result was out of control inflation and resultant poicy action to increase rates to rein in price rises...now, the RBI is again falling behind the curve.<br />
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It is incumbent on policy makers to anticipate economic developments and make pro-active policy moves. We are now heading to real interest rates of 10+% and yet RBI is sitting around waiting for ...who knows.<br />
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Clearly, deflation is here and will be around for some time..I expect inflation in India to head for -2.5% in the next few months...under these circumstances borrowing at 8 or 10% is a an impossible proposition for business...<br />
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We need a sharp reduction in policy rates followed by sharp reductions in PLR and loans for housing and cars...without these policy moves expect further deceleration of GDP to the 3%+ level...job losses and bankruptcies will fill headlines. Leehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04963564672968575642noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8648857688110938671.post-54074611691558958342009-03-19T15:28:00.001+05:302009-03-19T15:30:01.948+05:30India: Markets Sideways, Economy downwardsWell, you have seen the market action of the past couple of days...up through 2800 Nifty and then back down...when enough money is poured into the markets the sellers will come and clean up...IT WILL NOT BE PRETTY. I continue to be long Puts on Nifty at 2500 and 2600 strike.<br />
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I know a lot of people want to believe that there will be a recovery sometime this year...you must be listening to talking heads and politicians. If you listen to these people and invest your money then you deserve the shellacking your portfolio suffers.<br />
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I found the following useful: <a href="http://www.business-standard.com/india/storypage.php?autono=352249">India one of the Riskiest</a><br />
<blockquote>CLSA said tax revenues were crashing, expenditure exploding as the government in a bid to win the elections had given “full bridle to its populist urges”.</blockquote>The United States has pushed the "<span style="color: red;">RED Emergency Button</span>" and decided to print currency out of thin air to buy its own Bonds...the dollar plummetted...and there is growing perception now that: <a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/03/19/53768/analysts-react-dollar-dead-fed-credibility-shot/?source=rss"> Dollar dead, Fed credibility shot</a><br />
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Be very careful with your investment dollars...and now for the funniest line of the day: <a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/03/19/53758/aig-chief-urges-return-of-bonuses/?source=rss">AIG chief urges return of bonuses</a> <br />
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<blockquote>He told legislators he had asked staff at AIG Financial Products – the arm that brought AIG to the brink of collapse – to “do the right thing”</blockquote>If the staff knew what the right thing was then AIG would not be in this mess...LOL.Leehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04963564672968575642noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8648857688110938671.post-42088015157244062192009-03-18T09:55:00.000+05:302009-03-18T09:55:00.409+05:30India: Audit Standards under ReviewRemember the following comments in my article ofJanuary 5, 2009: <a href="http://dhabatalk.blogspot.com/2009/02/whistle-blowers-and-barking-dogs-pay.html">Whistle Blowers and Barking Dogs</a><br />
<blockquote>Which brings me to some anecdotal evidence...in 5 star hotel restaurants around Delhi/Gurgaon there have been many large teams sitting down to dinner together...many foreigners, some quite young. As I observed some of these dinners, it was clear that the foreigners were not the typical investment banker/private equity types..some of them looked geekish. It turns out that these teams are not scouting new investments, but have been sent to audit the value of their current investments...a result of the Raju debacle.</blockquote>Now we have the following story, two months later: <br />
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<a href="http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Global-team-review-PwCs-India-audit/rssarticleshow/4279097.cms">International Auditors to check Indian Auditors</a><br />
<blockquote>MUMBAI: Pricewaterhousecoopers (PwC) plans to bring in partners from its international to do an independent audit of its clients in besides what is being done by its Indian partners.</blockquote>Expect more accounting irregularities to be uncovered...will they be exposed or hushed up?...well it is election season...and the UPA is desperate...it will depend on the state where irregularities are uncovered...<br />
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Markets: Expect sideways movement to continue...2750-2850 Nifty range...Leehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04963564672968575642noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8648857688110938671.post-74467560680914216802009-03-17T18:47:00.001+05:302009-03-17T18:52:58.403+05:30India Markets: Exit, Let's watch the sideways actionI have taken profit on my calls...left sell orders on breach of 2800 Nifty and was exercised on the 2800 and 3000 calls..you will recall these positions were put on last Monday at Nifty 2550. Something to smile about.<br />
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At the same time, I have added to the March and April 2500 put position and bought some 2600 April puts...the puts were unbelievably cheap, you would think we were in the middle of a bull market...<br />
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While I expect market action to be sideways for a brief time, the next downleg is now almost visible...<span style="color: red;">Watch Out Below</span>.<br />
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The Best Line to describe Wall Street:<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/Sb-kE8FQ15I/AAAAAAAAA2Y/szjKG2nwUWI/s1600-h/risk.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/Sb-kE8FQ15I/AAAAAAAAA2Y/szjKG2nwUWI/s400/risk.png" /></a></div>Leehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04963564672968575642noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8648857688110938671.post-84013488916850271072009-03-17T14:10:00.001+05:302009-03-17T14:14:38.933+05:30India Politics: Singhvi, an intellectual minnowThe Times of India has published an article by Congress spokesperson Singhvi...<br />
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<a href="http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Editorial/UPA-VIEW-Only-UPA-can-control-terror/articleshow/4272679.cms">Only UPA can control Terror</a><br />
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First, I have to say that it is intellectual minnows that use the exclusive "ONLY us" when framing a debate..enough said about Singhvi...but what does the Congress led UPA have to say in this article:<br />
<blockquote>The NDA's interactions with Pakistan were marked by zig-zags and threatening postures without extracting any concession</blockquote>Congress should remember that BJP's on-going focus on Pakistan's involvement in terrorism had the US administration ready to brand Pakistan as a Rogue State in 2001. Furthermore, the BJP changed the relationship with US from adverserial to friendly by turning its back on 50 years of Congress miss-rule and vowing to be on the right side of history. ..however, 9/11 happened and there were new realities since Afghanistan became a bigger priority.<br />
<blockquote>The bus yatra was followed by Kargil and the failed Agra talks were followed by the Parliament attack. Apart from grandstanding on POTA, no concrete actions were taken nor any results achieved.</blockquote>Intellectual minnows usually confuse correlation with causation... <br />
<blockquote>By contrast, the Congress extracted an unprecedented admission from Pakistan about fomenting terrorism on its soil. Two seminal acts of Parliament creating a federal anti-terror agency and amending substantive law have been passed in record time.</blockquote><blockquote>Advani talked about the former from 2001 but could not even introduce a Bill</blockquote>Strange; after thumbing their noses at this Congress-led UPA administration Pakistan was forced to prostrate itself by the United States...to take credit is politics not competence. Furthermore, to take credit for enacting a federal anti-terror agency is stretching belief; Advani created this agency but it was opposed tooth and nail by the Congress and its allies...even after four years in power they did not move on this..but the Mumbai terror attacks forced two actions:<br />
<ol><li> Congress-led UPA was forced to reverse four years of opposition and pass a stronger anti-terror law..remember their first action on ganing power was to repeal the anti-terror law enacted by the BJP<br />
</li>
<li>Table the BJP's federal investigative agency, focused on terrorism..of course, this could only be enacted with BJP support...Had the Congress and its allies supported the BJP's action six years ago, the agency would have been active and may have prevented many terrorists attacks in the last five years.<br />
</li>
</ol><blockquote>The UPA's philosophy....a humane and inclusive approach to governance which does not divide society or communities to reap cheap political benefits.</blockquote>Sounds good...I would support such a philosophy...except the intellectual minnow's conclusion is:<br />
<blockquote>The BJP approach, on the contrary, may well lead to the creation of Frankensteinian monsters impossible to control.</blockquote>I am supposed to take this Congress spokesman seriously...this gentleman is a celebrated lawyer...such an argument would force the judge to throw him out of the court room.<br />
<blockquote></blockquote>The Congress-led UPA has no accomplishments to speak of after five years in power: the economy, security, future are all in disarray because of this government...so, fear mongering is their new election plank. How sad.Leehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04963564672968575642noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8648857688110938671.post-74962105745826100382009-03-17T09:06:00.000+05:302009-03-17T09:06:47.372+05:30Citibank, Madness continues...Sickening<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/wtUSInvestingNews/idUSTRE52F3MP20090316">Citi awards CEO $10.8 million</a><br />
<blockquote>Pandit said in February he will accept a $1 annual salary and no incentive pay until the bank is profitable. His nearly $11 million of 2008 compensation included $7.73 million of sign-on and retention awards last January, the month after he took over.</blockquote>Is there a contradiction in this paragraph...let us look at Citi since Pandit arrived on the scene:<br />
Citi buys Pandit's Old Lane hedge Fund..it goes bust and investment gone<br />
Pandit takes over Alternative Investments...which goes bust<br />
Pandit takes over the whole shebang at Citi..stock price declines 90%, government provides $50 billion plus of equity and underwrites over $300 billion of "toxic" assets<br />
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Citi's Board awards CEO $10.8 million<br />
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Any wonder why the entire financial edifice in the United States faces collapse...it is rotten at the core...Leehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04963564672968575642noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8648857688110938671.post-79287391646765016942009-03-17T08:47:00.001+05:302009-03-17T08:50:44.108+05:30India Markets: Rally Coming to an end?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/Sb8SBjZ6XyI/AAAAAAAAA1o/IcoO_B-AM_E/s1600-h/march16.php" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/Sb8SBjZ6XyI/AAAAAAAAA1o/IcoO_B-AM_E/s320/march16.php" style="cursor: move;" /></a></div>(<b><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i>Click on pictures for clearer Image</i></span></b>) <br />
As the chart shows, our view has panned out...the Nifty has ticked into the upper part of the blue shaded region...expect this rally to start fading now...my upside target is 2865....<br />
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However, not enough money has entered the market for sellers to pull the plug...there is a lot of selling waiting in the wings...expect sideways movement for sometime to sucker more money into the equity markets.<br />
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The next down leg in this market will rival or surpass the October carnage...hard to believe that people can still be shocked...but that is why this downturn in markets is not over.<br />
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Below is a longer term chart of Nifty:<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/Sb8UOJS2sQI/AAAAAAAAA1w/ryhRSwsYaws/s1600-h/mar16total.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/Sb8UOJS2sQI/AAAAAAAAA1w/ryhRSwsYaws/s320/mar16total.png" /></a></div><br />
It sure looks like we are out on a limb, with support at 2000...expect the support to be tested as the first quarter results season gets underway further undermined by lower prints of GDP.<br />
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Some Humor is needed:<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/Sb8VGbDosmI/AAAAAAAAA14/nIbXZa1758Q/s1600-h/new3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/Sb8VGbDosmI/AAAAAAAAA14/nIbXZa1758Q/s320/new3.png" /></a><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/Sb8VJYdHNcI/AAAAAAAAA2A/eA28DrNEbv0/s1600-h/new1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/Sb8VJYdHNcI/AAAAAAAAA2A/eA28DrNEbv0/s320/new1.png" /></a><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/Sb8VMjmTKtI/AAAAAAAAA2I/0QbTp4s_QYU/s1600-h/new2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/Sb8VMjmTKtI/AAAAAAAAA2I/0QbTp4s_QYU/s320/new2.jpg" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/Sb8VQsqvuCI/AAAAAAAAA2Q/qUKbjL6qnpE/s1600-h/new4.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/Sb8VQsqvuCI/AAAAAAAAA2Q/qUKbjL6qnpE/s320/new4.jpg" /></a></div><br />
President Obama on the AIG bonus theft: " I am shocked, shocked..."...give it a Rest.Leehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04963564672968575642noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8648857688110938671.post-40384535815313527732009-03-16T13:47:00.001+05:302009-03-16T13:55:49.709+05:30Madness at AIG..and Citi and..Why do you need to pay retention bonuses when the financial market is melting down, the economy is collapsing and jobs are disappearing faster than the Brazilian Rain forest...so we get the following:<br />
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<a href="http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/AIG-directed-to-trim-1-b-retention-pay/rssarticleshow/4268975.cms">AIG to pay $1 billion in Retention Bonuses</a><br />
<blockquote>AIG, whose fourth-quarter loss was the worst in corporate history, earmarked $1 billion in retention pay for about 4,600 of the company’s 116,000 employees so they won’t leave the crippled insurer.</blockquote><blockquote>Liddy has vowed AIG will repay “every penny” to the US for its bailout package by selling subsidiaries, and said the retention pay for talented people helps taxpayers by making the units attractive to buyers</blockquote>Where would these "talented" or is it "tainted" individuals go...there are no sucker financial institutions on Mars...how would you like AIG experience on your resume and you left because they wouldn't pay enough for your services...Insanity.<br />
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Every home-owner or car owner who has been foreclosed or re-possessed would like the same deal as AIG and would promise "to repay every penny"...Too BIG TOO FAIL" indeed<br />
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The surprise is these people haven't been strung up through a middle-class revolt....as yet.Leehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04963564672968575642noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8648857688110938671.post-35787738436865129142009-03-16T12:11:00.001+05:302009-03-16T13:35:11.261+05:30India Economy: Sub 4% Growth, Any takers?The lame response by the Congress-led UPA administration to the global financial crisis has now sealed a downward spiral in India's growth prospects. <br />
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<a href="http://www.forbes.com/2009/03/13/india-economy-global-opinions-contributors-g20.html">Economic Prospects</a><br />
<blockquote>The Indian economy has suffered a rather extreme external shock with a negative impact that is likely to be felt for months.</blockquote><blockquote>According to this model, which takes into account the external shock by calibrating it on the basis of earlier shocks suffered by the economy, GDP growth in 2009-10 will be about 4%. The first half (April to September) will achieve only 3.8% growth with a weak recovery starting in the second half and raising the annual growth to above 4%. </blockquote><a href="http://www.livemint.com/2009/03/10221005/Barclays-Capital-revises-GDP-g.html">GDP growth 4% </a><br />
<blockquote>Barclays Capital economist Sailesh K. Jha doesn’t think so. He has revised his India GDP (gross domestic product) forecast for fiscal 2010 from 5.2% to 4%.</blockquote><blockquote>RBI may allow the REER (real effective exchange rate) to depreciate further in order to limit downside risks to growth” and this could lead the rupee to fall to Rs56 to the dollar within the next three months.</blockquote><blockquote>...the current downturn is likely to be worse than the ones in the 1990s and in the fact that the lower dependence of rural India on agriculture could actually be a weakness during a downturn.</blockquote> I expect this technical rally to continue...2800+ target...but the seeds of the downleg are being sown...I continue to buy March and April 2500 puts on Nifty but have not taken profit on my 2800 and 3000 calls as yet.<br />
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There is still a perception that the downtrend can be halted or atleast ameliorated...this is not to be...India missed the boat with its weak response to the crisis...the external shock is cascading through the economy... be prepared to exit the markets...Leehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04963564672968575642noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8648857688110938671.post-63011234832678284772009-03-15T08:11:00.000+05:302009-03-15T08:11:34.672+05:30India Markets: Idiotic Analysis to the Fore...<a href="http://www.business-standard.com/india/storypage.php?autono=351817">Bottom Forming: Stupid Analysis</a><br />
<blockquote>In simple terms, these low P/E ratio figures show that an investor who was willing to pay Rs 22-25 for every rupee an individual share earned a year ago, is willing to pay only Rs 8.71-10.15 for the same rupee-earning now</blockquote>I want to yell at this idiotic analysis...IT IS ABOUT THE <i style="color: red;"><b>E</b></i> YOU FOOL...THE <i style="color: red;"><b>E</b></i>...earnings are dropping, they are not constant....As long as analysts like these are calling a bottom, the bottom is nowhere in sight...<br />
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I think this market is going to have more problems as we confront the real possibility that we will get some really poor earnings for the first and second quarters. The economy is simply weak, and that weakness is hitting more and more companies. From exporting companies to the big international firms, a global slowdown is hitting almost everyone. We could see a real bear market rally lure investors back in, just to crush their hopes this summer.<br />
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And Protectionism is rearing its ugly head, From Bloomberg: <br />
<blockquote>“American exports have slumped at a 44% annual pace in the most recent six months of data, with imports shrinking 51%, probably the most since the Great Depression, according to Morgan Stanley analysts. The figures may add to pressure on the Obama administration to rework international agreements and include protections for US workers and the environment.”The US steel industry is planning to bring anti-dumping charges against foreign steel. India just raised steel tariffs. It seems like every day I read that someone somewhere is calling for their particular industry to be protected, bailed out, or subsidized. And it is not just the US. It is happening all over the world.</blockquote>Enjoy this rally while it lasts...the G-20 is happening and will do nothings..hopefully. Prepare for the next down leg and have full confidence in our politicians...to do the worst thing possible.Leehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04963564672968575642noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8648857688110938671.post-52739814924148994542009-03-14T16:11:00.000+05:302009-03-14T16:11:56.842+05:30India Markets: Rally to continue, No News is ...Expect this technical rally to continue...2800+ target...but slowly the clouds are gathering..<br />
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<a href="http://www.business-standard.com/india/storypage.php?autono=351771">RBI verifying solvency of Realty firms</a><br />
<blockquote>The companies identified for assessment are DLF, Indiabulls Real Estate, Unitech, HDIL, Mahindra Lifespace, Peninsular Land, Ansal Properties, Phoenix Mills, Anantraj Industries and Akruti Citi Ltd.</blockquote><blockquote>Large-scale borrowing has distorted the normal debt equity ratio for most of the companies and made them highly leveraged. RBI is of the view that the debt is being camouflaged in cases where the ratio meets standard norms.</blockquote>Even a whiff of problems will send the market tumbling....the Banks and mutual Funds could be in serious trouble. As I have kept saying for months, a liquidity event because of the Realty sector exposures should be expected.<br />
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<a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/03/13/53594/cds-update-rally-notwithstanding-its-bleak-out-there/?source=rss">Rally nothwithstanding, it's bleak out there</a><br />
<blockquote>“As I grow older I pay less attention to what men say. I just watch what they do.”</blockquote>US Bankers say that their problems are behind them; the economy and their credit exposures say the opposite. Stop listening...Leehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04963564672968575642noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8648857688110938671.post-58771935805700981312009-03-13T07:37:00.000+05:302009-03-13T07:37:17.289+05:30India Markets: Rally Caps...But be nimbleThere is absolutely no good news from reliable sources...every economic statistic is pointing down...all forward looking indicators are pointing down...<br />
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A perfect time for a big Bear Market Rally...complete confusion.<br />
<br />
Citi and B of A are saying they are profitable and will not need any help...anybody believe these guys...<br />
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I expect the Nifty to continue to rally...2800+ target...this is what I call "Buy the Rumour" and "Sell the fact" Rally.<br />
<blockquote><span style="color: red;">Rumour</span>:<br />
We are making a Bottom<br />
<span style="color: red;">Fact</span>:<br />
Q1 results estimates and reality will belie the rumour and destroy the market </blockquote> Be Nimble....we will see much lower levels on the Nifty, so be prepared to cut all positions while you enjoy the rally... Leehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04963564672968575642noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8648857688110938671.post-4689752082900913122009-03-12T18:09:00.003+05:302009-03-12T18:36:35.204+05:30Market Round-upInflation at 2.43%...wasn't it over 12% recently....worries of Anorexia...Deflation<br /><br />Industrial Production <span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">-0.5%</span>...negative for second consecutive month...<br /><br />RBI is worried that we will not meet growth targets...REALLY...wonder what they will say when GDP print has a 4 and then 3 handle...<br /><br />Pakistan Unraveling or evolving or whatever....nothing good will come from the current crisis...expect India sovereign risk to ratchet upwards...Rupee weakness will continue...<br /><br /><a href="http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Bharti-Airtel-falls-as-CEO-sells-entire-stake/rssarticleshow/4254253.cms">Bharti Airtel</a> CEO sells entire shareholding....stock sinks...<br /><br /><a href="http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Pessimism-too-high-time-to-buy-Mobius/rssarticleshow/4255347.cms">Mobius</a> says buy equities...pessimism too high in emerging markets...(Mark there are bargains in the Indian realty sector...)<br /><br /><a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123672965066989281.html">Greenspan</a> says financial crisis is the fault of China and emerging market economies...SocGen's <a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/03/12/53516/criminal-negligence-or-just-insane/?source=rss">Albert Edwards</a> says Greenspan is either incompetent or criminally insane...<br /><br />Throwing shoes at Important Hated people has been judged at 18 months per shoe by Iraqi courts...Reporter who threw two shoes at Bush is sent to jail for THREE years...<br /><br /><a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/faf1a6fe-0ee8-11de-ba10-0000779fd2ac.html?ftcamp=rss&nclick_check=1">World Bank</a> says Global output will shrink 1 to 2% in 2009...<br /><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">And the beat goes on</span><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">the beat goes on</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Market Comment</span>: Expect this technical rally to continue....everyone expects it to fizzle out..markets hurt the most number whenever possible....Leehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04963564672968575642noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8648857688110938671.post-21437511823742055872009-03-11T22:39:00.001+05:302009-03-11T22:46:01.250+05:30Humour...Laugh and all will be well<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><br />
Too Funny: (<i>click on pictures for clearer image</i>)<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/SbfvFVSO3OI/AAAAAAAAA1I/B4p8l73OGwM/s1600-h/Obam-o%27s.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><br />
</a><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/Sbfxk3hxD_I/AAAAAAAAA1Y/NUNh-Q10PiU/s1600-h/Obama2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/Sbfxk3hxD_I/AAAAAAAAA1Y/NUNh-Q10PiU/s320/Obama2.jpg" /></a><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/SbfxqRhD2pI/AAAAAAAAA1g/Jb09_HrWMmg/s1600-h/Obama1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/SbfxqRhD2pI/AAAAAAAAA1g/Jb09_HrWMmg/s320/Obama1.jpg" /></a></div><br />
What do the buildings in this picture have in common?<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/SbfvKeBqXfI/AAAAAAAAA1Q/l5OI3q_zfNo/s1600-h/VegasStrip.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/SbfvKeBqXfI/AAAAAAAAA1Q/l5OI3q_zfNo/s320/VegasStrip.jpg" style="cursor: move;" /></a></div>1. They are all on the Las Vegas Strip<br />
2. They are all in default of their debt covenants.<br />
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Even Sin city is in a depression...Leehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04963564672968575642noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8648857688110938671.post-25301767136229678872009-03-11T21:11:00.000+05:302009-03-11T21:11:17.432+05:30Indian Markets: Another Dead Cat, Tempted?As I said a few days ago, expect a sharp rally...<a href="http://dhabatalk.blogspot.com/2009/03/india-markets-selling-exhaustion-rally.html">Selling Exhaustion</a> ...but it is another dead cat bounce...but this one will seem the most real...VERY TEMPTING.<br />
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If you must take a position then be long with puts...or just do as I did and buy some 2800 and 3000 calls on the Nifty.<br />
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Here is the picture:<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/SbfadDYzniI/AAAAAAAAA04/aL8JvPbZyVs/s1600-h/March112009Nifty.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Iv6pYFpt6jM/SbfadDYzniI/AAAAAAAAA04/aL8JvPbZyVs/s400/March112009Nifty.png" style="cursor: move;" /></a></div><br />
The market is in an oversold position so expect it to trade towards the upper half of the blue band above...(2496 to 3053)...so 2800 + ...<br />
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The euphoria will give way as the next earnings estimates and then results come out...expect continued downwards revisions and consequent downleg in the market.<br />
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In the meantime, enjoy the ride...upwards.Leehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04963564672968575642noreply@blogger.com0