Daily US Stock Market Fundamental & Technical Analysis

Typical Low Volume Day Ahead of Christmas

2009-12-22T19:03:00.000-08:00

The Dow gained 50 points today on recovering retail sales and existing home sales.

Investors looked past a lower than expected Q3 final GDP and placed their optimistic votes on a higher retail sales for the week and better than expected existing home sales (see Stock Market Calendar). I see today's market action as more of a follow up on yesterday's optimism and clearly, these are that few late comers to the party as trading volume is way lower than average today.

The Dow is once again at the top of its short term neutral channel, yes the moment of truth again. If the Nasdaq composite is going to lead a breakout, its going to be over the next couple of days. Otherwise, its back down to the bottom of the channel again at 10250. I am not picking up significant short term bullish momentum yet and the only thing going for a breakout scenario is the fact that the Nasdaq has broken out and has followed up higher today. As such, odds continue to favor a topside breakout on the Dow for the short term.

For now, the Dow remains in short term neutral trend within an intermediate and long term bull trend.

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Nasdaq Composite Leads Breakout!

2009-12-21T17:41:00.000-08:00

What an exciting start to Christmas week! The Nasdaq Composite led the way by staging a breakout of its short term neutral channel, gaining 25 points while the Dow gained 85 points.

Sure looks like Santa Claus rally in the making today as the Nasdaq Composite became the first of the 3 major indices to stage a topside breakout of its short term neutral channel. Yes, all 3 major indices have been trapped in a short term neutral channel for the past month and we have been keeping tabs on the Dow on this issue. The Nasdaq breakout today certainly does paint an optimistic picture and setup the possibility that the other 2 major indices would do the same over the next couple of days.

There were no major releases today, so its purely investors' and traders' votes. This surge in optimism was also echoed in the options market as CBOE total equities put call ratio ditched strongly in favor of call options transactions (see Put Call Ratio Graph). Overall, today is a decidedly positive day on average volume.

Such strong performance could almost certainly lead to a profit taking on Christmas eve itself so any short term profitable trades should be profit taking candidates by then.

For now, the Dow remains in short term neutral trend within an intermediate and long term bull trend.

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Welcome to Christmas Week!

2009-12-20T17:35:00.000-08:00

Welcome to Christmas Week!

Yes, this is a holiday shortened week with half day trading on Thursday and Christmas holiday on Friday. In fact, many people all over the world are already on holiday and won't be trading this week. Looking back into history, the SP500 has been up on 8 Christmas weeks over the past 10 years with significantly lower volume on most of them. So, will the santa claus rally come back this year?

On the news front, we have the GDP on Tuesday and Durable goods orders on Thursday, both are important economic numbers that will certainly provide a catalyst for a Santa Claus rally if they turn out better than expected (see Stock Market Calendar).

On the technical front, the Dow continues to trade within its short term neutral channel with no signs of a breakout. This short term neutral channel is a tight one bounded by 10250 and 10500. Since it is once again at the bottom of this channel, it will not be surprising to see the Dow go upwards this week back up to the top of the channel. The only question that remains is, will there be a breakout? I maintain that the probability of a topside breakout continues to be more probable than a bottomside breakout.

For now, the Dow remains in short term neutral trend within an intermediate and long term bull trend.

Feds Hold Rates Steady...

2009-12-16T18:06:00.000-08:00

The Dow closed marginally lower by 10.88 points today on profit taking following the FOMC Announcement.

The FOMC, short for Federal Open Market Committee, is when the members of the Federal Reserve headed by Bernanke, sit together to discuss monetary policy every month. It is a one day meeting that started on Tuesday and announced their decision today. Of course their decision was nothing out of the ordinary as they are expected to hold rates steady for a significantly longer period of time. Which could be why we saw that profit taking following the announcement. Market was up on great housing starts before the Fed announcement.

So what started as a pretty optimistic day, ended as a sideways day with the Dow still inside that congested short term neutral channel. As I mentioned yesterday, with so much volatility going on this week, I don't think we will see a decisive breakout this week.

For now, the Dow remains in short term neutral trend within an intermediate and long term bull trend.

Empire State Index Disappoints...

2009-12-15T21:53:00.000-08:00

The Dow corrected down marginally by 49 points today as the Empire State Index disappoints.

The Empire State Manufacturing Index is a survery conducted monthly on various aspects of manufacturing in the New York region and is believed to lead the all important ISM index, which is what gave it its importance. The Empire State Index's general business condition index is what investors and traders watch out for. Reading above 0 indicates expansion and below 0, contraction. The Empire State Index turned in a disappointing 2.55 vs consensus of 25. The wide gap between the consensus number and the actual number caused equities to open in the red and remained red for the rest of the session.

The Empire State Index may only be part of the reason for the sell off today and a spike in put options transactions as reflected in the total equities put call ratio today (see Put Call Ratio Graph). The other part may be due to the FOMC announcement coming up tomorrow, which will definitely rock the market as it always does as well as Quadruple Witching on Friday, making profit taking a more sensible thing this week.

On the technical front, the Dow failed once again right at the top of its short term neutral channel but it isn't a severe failure as bullish momentum still remains in the ultra short term trend. As such, I would consider today's move more sideways than downwards. With so much volatility going on this week, I do not see the possibility of a strong breakout within this week.

For now, the Dow remains in short term neutral trend within an intermediate and long term bull trend.

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Optimistic Start For The Week

2009-12-14T19:42:00.000-08:00

The Dow followed up today into its fourth consecutive up days, closing up by a marginal 29 points in a low volume trading day.

In a day without any economic releases nor market moving news, investors decided to remain optimistic. Today's move brought the DOW right on the top of its short term neutral channel with plenty of strength left to stage a breakout. Short term bullish momentum continues to rise today, increasing the chance of a topside breakout within this week. Tomorrow's Empire State index (see Stock Market Calendar) might also provide the catalyst should it turn out better than expected.

For now, the Dow remains in short term neutral trend within an intermediate and long term bull trend.

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Volatile Week Ahead...

2009-12-13T17:44:00.001-08:00

Welcome to one of the most volatile weeks of the year. This week, we have the FOMC Announcement on Wednesday as well as Quadruple Witching on Friday (see Stock Market Calendar). These events are extremely volatile and not for the faint of heart.

The Dow continued to move sideways within its short term neutral channel last week and is now once again at the top of the channel. However, there are 2 positive points at this point. First, the Dow rebounded off its 30MA nicely last week and everytime it does that, it usually rebounds to new highs. Secondly, the short term bullish momentum which was lacking last week appeared at last, providing fuel for a topside breakout. The negative this week would be volatility. I suspect that even if a breakout occurs, it would quickly be taken back by the end of the week.

For now, the Dow remains in short term neutral trend within an intermediate and long term bull trend.

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Stimulus Package Extended.

2009-12-09T17:48:00.000-08:00

The Dow gained marginally by 51 points today as the financial bailout fund is extended to October 2010.

Optimism returned to the market today as investors received word that the financial simulus package isn't going to end at the end of the year afterall. The $700 billion fund, which was due to end its work at the end of the year, was extended to October 2010. Many other nations also extended their economic stimulus plans in order to help this recovering economy stand firm.

This helped the Dow bounce right off its daily 30MA, which is its short term support level, intraday. However, there is still no signs of a return of short term bullish momentum from our short term indicators and I suppose it needs to build up over the next few days. This also makes the possibility of a topside breakout of this narrow short term neutral channel this week pretty remote.

For now, the Dow remains in short term neutral trend within an intermediate and long term bull trend.

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Store Sales Disappoints...

2009-12-08T17:36:00.000-08:00

The Dow dropped by 104 points today as store sales reported much worse than expected holiday sales.

Store sales (see Stock Market Calendar) reported in -1.3% today vs last week's -0.1%, indicating worsening consumer spending once again and poor holiday sales. In fact, year on year change fell from 3.1% to 2.6%, erasing much of the hope for the return of consumers this year. Yes, with lower accessibility to credit, we should not see holiday sales the way they were before the crisis. Almost everyone purchased on credit in the credit based society that has been created in the US and is what has been driving sales every holiday.

Market opened deeply red and stayed red throughout the session. However, little to no change was seen in the bonds and options market. The bond yield curve remained relatively still and total equities put call ratio remained completely still. This shows that speculators and traders are still mainly on the watch and could buy into the dip tomorrow when market opens.

On the technical front, whatever little short term bullish momentum built up by the Dow over the past week diminished all at once today. In fact, today's close is a dangerous one as it is the lowest close since 13 November. Yes, it is indeed unreasonable for the Dow to stage a topside breakout without first taking a break and retesting the 50MA like it has done over the past few months. Volatility is the order of the day with the market this toppy. In fact, even if traders do step in tomorrow, it will hardly change anything. Probability remains very low for a topside breakout as long as the Dow doesn't go back to a short term oversold condition.

For now, the Dow remains in short term neutral trend within an intermediate and long term bull trend.

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Unemployment Rate Reverses

2009-12-06T18:41:00.000-08:00

US unemployment rate reverses from 10.2% down to 10% and beat consensus of 10.2%. In fact, Nonfarm payroll change beat consensus by a mile, turning in at -11k against consensus of -100k. So, what does this tell us? That the economic recovery is real. All we need now is one more month of unemployment rate drop to confirm that this is not another "fake-out". The stock market moves ahead of the real economy and much of these has already been priced into the year long rally so far. This is probably why we did not see a breakout on this news last Friday. There was extremely heavy buying followed by extremely heavy selling, which resulted in a sideways day with extremely high volume, much like a quadruple witching day. The Dow continued to move largely short term neutral last week, closing the week up by a marginal 0.77%.

Yes, the charts tell us that the market is still under considerable pressure and that most likely much of these optimism has been priced in and profit taking may be underway to close accounts for the year before January. This is also the longest short term neutral trend the Dow has been in since this new leg up begun in July. Short term momentum looks balanced at the moment with no significant inclination to upside or downside.

For now, the Dow remains in short term neutral trend within an intermediate and long term bull trend.

Secret Bullishness Today

2009-12-03T19:05:00.000-08:00

The US market sold off towards the end of the day closing the Dow down 86 points.

There was no news to trigger the sell off we saw at the end of the day and it can only boil down to profit taking prior to an uncertain jobs report tomorrow (see Stock Market Calendar). Yes, unemployment rate is one of the best indicators of the end of the recession for the real economy and that is one indicator that has not turned yet. Certainly traders who has made a good profit so far would want to take some profit off just to be sure. However, unemployment rate has to turn one day and every jobs report brings us closer to that unemployment rate reversal which would certainly spark off a new rush of buying. I won't want to miss out. We have waited long enough, why bail out now?

Even though equities were largely negative today, options trading was unusually bullish as Put Call Ratio dipped by a huge 21 basis point, suggesting that speculators are actually rushing in on the bullish side. That makes us think that today's sell off may be a faker allowing big time traders to set up using call options for a recovery tomorrow, pocketing a huge profit (see Daily Put Call Ratio Chart).

For now, the Dow is still trapped within that tight short term neutral channel that I pointed out a few days ago. Short term bullish momentum took a hit and

does not look poised for a breakout. I suspect we would get clearer indications tomorrow when the market turns around.

For now, the Dow remains in short term neutral trend within an intermediate and long term bull trend.

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Happy Jolly Day!

2009-12-01T17:25:00.000-08:00

Investors cheered a better than expected store sale and auto sale today, closing the Dow up 126 points.

Index futures were already sky high prior to market opening today as store sales and auto sales (see Stock Market Calendar) beat expectations. Investors also came to the realisation that the Dubai World incident really isn't as big a deal as the media made it to be. The Dow zipped right up upon opening and traded flat for the rest of the day. In fact, investors were so optimistic that they looked past the ISM index which failed to beat expectations. Indeed, like I mentioned yesterday, some volatility in the ISM index at this level is to be expected and nothing to be made a fuss about.

Even through today's rally still kept the Dow within a narrow short term neutral channel, the probability of a topside breakout is now extremely high with the Dow way off short term overbought condition with short term bullish momentum rising. The 30MA is once again at a comfortably close proximity and could guide the Dow higher from here onwards.

For now, the Dow remains in short term neutral trend within an intermediate and long term bull trend.

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Chicago PMI Beats Expectations...

2009-11-30T17:30:00.000-08:00

The Dow gained marginally by 35 points today as the Chicago PMI beat expectations.

The Chicago PMI (Purchasing Manager's Index) turned in better than expected today at 56.1 vs consensus of 53. Readings above 50 suggest an expanding economy while readings below 50 suggest a contracting economy. What today's 56.1 tells us is that the US economy has stepped out of recession and is expanding at an accelerating pace. Tomorrow's ISM index would be the real heavyweight indicator of how the economy is doing. So far, the ISM index has recovered to almost pre-recession levels. Investors should be prepared for some volatility.

So far this month, the Dow has been trading largely sideways. I speculated that it will retreat back to its 30MA before moving higher but it seems like it prefers to wait for its 30MA to catch up on it instead. Still, we need to see the Dow break out of its current range before any short term trading is possible.

For now, the Dow has turned short term neutral trend within an intermediate and long term bull trend.

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Heavy Weight Week Again...

2009-11-29T16:21:00.001-08:00

Welcome back! Hope you had a great Thanksgiving weekend!

One reason why professionals like myself are reluctant to put on new positions prior to long weekends is because anything can happen over so many days. That was what happened this time time with the Dubai credit crisis. Dubai's sovereign fund requested for a suspension of debts just a few hours after issuing their new bonds in a move that tells the whole world that they have overspent like a lady in a Prada shop. Stock markets drop all over the world in fear of a new "financial crisis" arising out of this event. The Dow also dropped by 154 points in last Friday's half day trading.

Seriously, the Dubai incident isn't a big deal for two reasons; Firstly, not every country in the world are invested in Dubai in a big way. Secondly, its a debt suspension, not yet a debt default. In fact, the Dow is going to retreat down to retest the 10,000 points level again as I have mentioned before and it might as well have been on the back of an event such as this one. The Dow has been secretly wearing off most of its short term overbought condition last week over the weak trading volume which leads me to think that a retreat may be only down to the 30 MA instead of all the way down to the 10,000 level. Either way, the direction is still upwards for now on the intermediate and long term basis and I don't see anything that threatens it.

This is the first week of December and yes, a heavyweight week in terms of economic numbers (see Stock Market Calendar). Once again, we will get the ISM index and the Jobs Report this week which will certainly have much more impact than the Dubai incident.

For now, the Dow remains in a all out bull trend.

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Happy ThanksGiving!

2009-11-25T19:26:00.000-08:00

Its been a light trading week this week so far and I hadn't been writing as I am holidaying in Japan for this Thanksgiving. Will be back writing again next week.

HAPPY THANKSGIVING!

Suspicious Start for the Week

2009-11-23T17:39:00.000-08:00

What a great start to thanksgiving week with the Dow gaining 132 points on encouraging Durable goods order and Jobless Claims.

The US Market launched to a great start as Durable goods orders and jobless claims beat expectations (see Stock Market Calendar), fuelling the recovery scenario. This extreme optimism was echoed by the total equities Put Call Ratio ditching by 25 points today from almost par to extreme call options trading. However, what was lacking today was volume. Volume was light as expected of the thanksgiving week and such aggressive buying on both the stocks and options front tells me that perhaps some institutions are trying to create a rush in this thanksgiving week. Whether retail investors and traders take the bait is still left to be answered but there is no doubt that today's rally once again pushed the Dow back up to that uncomfortable, shaky, peak. From the trading patterns, I have no doubt that investors and institutions are still trying to take profit prior to the holiday but wants to do so in style.

From the lack of volume going into today's rally and sudden surge in call options trading, I have no doubt that the tide will turn and the 10,000 points level retested.

For now, the Dow remains in a all out bull trend.

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Thanksgiving Week!

2009-11-23T03:05:00.000-08:00

Welcome to Thanksgiving week!

Yes, its going to be a holiday shortened week this week with Thanksgiving on Thursday and a half day market on Friday (see Stock Market Calendar). Trading volume is expected to be light this week as investors and traders go on their seasonal holiday. Expect to see some profit taking ahead of Thanksgiving as traders traditionally take some profit to finance their holidays. Santa Claus rally? Doesn't exist anymore.

For now, the Dow remains in an all out bull trend.

Dow Starts Retreat

2009-11-19T20:25:00.000-08:00

As expected, the Dow started its retreat, closing down 93 points at 10332 points despite optimistic forward looking data.

Both leading indicators and Philley Fed data continue to support a recovering market going forward (see Stock Market Calendar). In fact, Philley Fed outlook has not been higher even during the pre-crisis years! However, as a technically driven toppy market, traders sold off into the news, setting the Dow up for a revisit to the 10,000 points region like I have been talking about for the past few days. Yes, this is a healthy and necessary retreat in order to set the market up for higher highs.

For now, the Dow remains in a all out bull trend.

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Options Expiration Week Ahead

2009-11-15T17:27:00.000-08:00

The Dow ended the week up a total of 247 points or 2.46% last week as investors take the Dow out of the 10,000 points blackhole.

But is it really safe now? On a long term basis, yes. We have announced a primary bull trend months ago and if you have followed on that, you would have made significant gains by now. How about the short term? Well, last week's rally left the Dow once again in short term overbought condition and short term bearish momentum is once again rising. I would expect a revisit to the 10,000 points again this week so that the Dow can get out of overbought condition again and also establish the 10,000 points as a new short term support level. Once that is done, the bull trend can continue.

This is options expiration week and leading indicators week (see Stock Market Calendar), so do expect a fair bit of volatility.

For now, the Dow remains in a all out bull trend.

Retreat Begins...

2009-11-12T16:43:00.000-08:00

The Dow ended its 6 days rally with a 93 points retreat today, forming a short term evening star signal. Yes, it seems like the retreat that I have been expecting is coming just that few days earlier than expected. Like I mentioned yesterday, this retreat is inevitable and healthy for the market and whether the 10,000 points area becomes the next short term support level is critical for whether the market moves higher.

Today's ditch came on the back of a better than expected jobless claims number (see Stock Market Calendar), further reinforcing the fact that it is a technically driven market right now. Markets become extremely technical driven when its bottomy or toppy. This is definitely an intermediate term toppy market where a lot of uncertainty and profit taking takes place.

For now, the Dow remains in a all out bull trend.

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Running Out of Short-term Steam

2009-11-11T20:02:00.000-08:00

Another largely sideways day for the Dow, closing up by 44 points, making it the 6th consecutive positive day. Not unusual for the market to trade largely sideways for a few days following huge single day rallies or ditches. Even though volume was seriously lacking today, today's market action remained largely bullish as the Dow made new highs for the year. The Dow also entered short term overbought condition today and with investors obviously being cautious, I would expect the Dow to actually go sideways for a couple of days more before actually turning downwards and retest the 10,000 points level again. This retest is extremely important in order to establish it as the new short term support level. That will also help ease the Dow out of its short term overbought condition for new highs.

For now, the Dow remains in a all out bull trend.

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Dow Breaks Out For REAL!

2009-11-09T19:11:00.000-08:00

The Dow broke out of the 10,000 points resistance zone as expected with a huge 203 points rally, closing the day at 10226 points.

Yes, this is the resolute, clean, breakout that makes a breakout. Volume was also encouraging and rally was broadbased. Not only did the Dow breakout of the 10,000 points zone cleanly, it also defeated last month's high all in one day (the 2 criteria I mentioned yesterday). This is an extremely important breakout that will promise more upside to come. The market broke out as G20 nations committed to continued support for world economy until recovery is certain. Obviously many people still think the recovery isn't certain. Well, we always need late comers to the party in order to throw leftovers to. We are certainly not one of them.

The Dow is still way off short term overbought and MACD has just crossed into positive territory, this gives plenty of room to upside before the Dow retreats and retest the 10,000 points again as I have mentioned yesterday. I expect this to be a strong positive week with some consolidation next week. Enjoy the bulls!

For now, the Dow remains in a all out bull trend.

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Quiet Week Ahead...

2009-11-08T17:24:00.000-08:00

Unemployment rate reported in higher than expected last Friday at 10.2%, beating consensus of 9.9%. In fact, that was the highest unemployment rate since 1983. However, that didn't stop investors from keeping the Dow above water on Friday, closing the week up by 310 points ( 3.20%).

Last week's market action has once again been largely technically driven with investors pouring in at the 50MA line, driving the Dow onto the 10,000 points level again. Other than a lack of volume, last week's market action has been extremely encouraging with the Dow still way off short term overbought level, giving it plenty of room to move to upside. So, is the 10,000 points over? It will if the Dow beats last month's high and then retreat to rebound off the 10,000 points level again. That will set the 10,000 points level as a support level and leave the Dow with plenty of upside. This is a quiet week ahead with no major releases (see Stock Market Calendar). Last week's numbers paint a clear picture; the economy is recovering but it takes time for firms to start hiring again, which still leaves plenty of good news for the future to drive the Dow higher. I actually think it is a good thing.

For now, the Dow remains in a short term bull trend within an intermediate and primary bull trend.

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Profit Takers Still In-Charge

2009-11-04T20:02:00.000-08:00

The Dow started the month optimistically, closing up by 76 points on better than expected ISM index.

The strong follow up that we are hoping to see did not happen,instead, all we saw was that profit takers were still very much in control of the situation, beating down the market right after today's FOMC Announcement. Yes, profit takers were merciless in securing positions in cash even though the Fed did everything right, destroying what is to be a strong follow up day. Yes, if the market ended as strong as it was before the Fed announcement, investors might have enough confidence to start coming back in again. That didn't happen. This puts the Dow in an extremely perilous position jammed sideways between its 30 and 50MA. The good thing about today's market action is that it left the Dow with a reversal of its short term bearish momentum so its pretty much neutral now. There are obviously bulls in the market but they are just not as shrewd as the profit takers.

For now, the Dow remains in short term neutral trend within an intermediate and primary bull trend.

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Great Start To The Month

2009-11-02T16:54:00.000-08:00

The Dow started the month optimistically, closing up by 76 points on better than expected ISM index.

The US economy continues to present optimistic report cards as the ISM index turned in far better than expected. ISM index released this morning turned in 55.7 versus last month's 52.6 and beating consensus of 53. In fact, this reading is now way higher than any of the ISM index readings back in the bullish 2007! Hold on, what is this ISM index anyway?

The ISM Index is the Institute of Supply Management Manufacturing Index. It is also known as the ISM manufacturing index with its sister ISM services index sometime later this week. The index is compiled from a survey of 300 manufacturing firms and is the first economic indicator released every month. Its correlation with real GDP is what made it a heavyweight economic indicator watched even by the Fed. In fact, an ISM index reading of 50 has been consistent with a real GDP growth of about 2.5% with every full point adding another 0.3%. Generally, a reading above 50 indicates economic expansion while a reading below 50 indicates economic contraction. That made today's 55.7 an indication of economic expansion without a shadow of a doubt.

Traders and investors obviously welcomed the great news, pushing the market up in the morning before once again succumbing to profit taking pressure in the afternoon. Even though there was obviously still much profit taking in the market, the Dow did once again bounce off its 50MA, strengthening it as its intermediate term support level. But lets not rejoice too early. We do need to see a strong follow up tomorrow before we can lean the edge towards the bulls. For now, sentiments remains more bearish than bullish.

For now, the Dow remains in short term neutral trend within an intermediate and primary bull trend.

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