Daily US Stock Market Fundamental & Technical Analysis

Past the Halfway Point

2018-06-25T05:41:00.000-07:00

Jason's US Market Analysis & Forecast - 25 June

Welcome to the final week of June 2018!

We will be crossing into the second half of 2018 very soon and it has certainly been a really rough year so far but fortunately a very predictable one (I know sooooo many people who would think otherwise hahaha). Yes, all year long the market has been predictable down to the daily movements just like my prediction for a negative close last Thursday! So who says the market is "unpredictable"?

Here was what I said last Thursday morning:

"...chances favor the market resuming its bullishness even though it would not be unusual to see today end up slightly negative as some skeptical bulls take quick profit before the really committed buying come in."

(I only publicly post my reports every once in a while. To receive all my daily reports by email, please subscribe by clicking on the yellow button on the right below my photo)

Yes, and exactly it was so! The market closed negative on Thursday and rebounded on Friday, every step exactly how I predicted it. (Its not magic nor intuition. there's a method behind all these and I am still not too enthusiastic about launching that protege program I spoke of before just yet) So, how about the trade war thing again? Well, it has been going on and on for a long time and what happens each time? Market goes higher cos Trump always finds a way.

In fact, the market really isn't just about Trump or some trade argument. Its much more than that and everything else other than those twitter posts are supporting the current bull trend in both fundamentals and technicals, as such, I don't see why the market shouldn't resume upwards from here with the next major challenge being around the 2800 level.

However, one thing I don't like is how the Nasdaq 100 is behaving... struggling at all time high, it could actually return to the mean a little to a more reasonable level like what the S&P500 (which pretty much means the rest of the market) is at right now... it has just gotten a little ahead of itself and is REALLY overbought right now.

For now, the market remains in short term neutral trend within the framework of an intermediate and primary bull trend.

Danger Ahead...

2018-06-18T04:57:00.003-07:00

Jason's US Market Analysis & Forecast - 18 June

Welcome to a new options trading cycle, the July cycle!

Like I said in my report last week, an options traders' month start from the 3rd Friday of one month to the 3rd Friday of the next month rather than follow the typical calendar month due to options expiration cycle. Last Friday was Quadruple Witching June, which is options expiration for June options. What a month June cycle has been! Market moved almost exactly how I expected it every step of the way and I made in total over $50,000 in profit in just one month. Amazing month and thank God for such a month!

Today starts July cycle for me, my students and my managed accounts clients. So, how might the month be?

Well, technicals and fundamentals have never been better in the world for a very long time, pushing the Nasdaq into new historical highs, leading the S&P500 along with it, still somewhere down there, a distance from new historical highs. This is when it gets VERY dangerous.

A sharp bearish divergence suggest short term overbought condition supported by the rounded top formation created by the S&P500 even though the Nasdaq has been making new highs. This relunctance to follow will ultimately drag the Nasdaq down with it to a more reasonable level which both indices can agree on. Its not data mining, its logic. When a small group of stocks seem to outperform day after day while 500 other stocks doesn't quite follow, those investors of that 100 stocks will start to have second thoughts and eventually sell off to join in with the mass. Its just common sense there.

As such, I won't be surprised to see a very very volatile week ahead as the market continues on the outlook that I have made all these while: slow volatile climb to the January high before everything goes to..... H?

For now, the market turns a short term neutral trend within the framework of an intermediate and primary bull trend.

Welcome To Week 3 June!

2018-06-11T06:23:00.000-07:00

Welcome to Week 3 of June, the Quadruple Witching Week! (Read about what Quadruple Witching Means at http://www.optiontradingpedia.com/quadruple_witching.htm )

Had a really nice vacation weekend after last week's really profitable options trading due to having accurately called the market all week long. In fact, my managed accounts clients and I are looking forward to a nice 10% gain on our overall portfolio this coming Quadruple Witching Friday!

The US NK summit is taking place in Singapore right now and results of the summit has yet to be confirmed but so far, Trump seems to be positive about how. However, even though Trump may be positive about it, the fact that the market is at a short term overbought position where a short term retreat like how I suggested last week should take place along with investors being very cautious about how the summit plays out and this Wednesday's FOMC announcement and Friday's Quadruple Witching, do tend to put people on the defensive and the odds in favor of the short term pull back continuing this week.

My subscribers and I took profit on the profitable SPY call options last week and yes, I did make some good profit out of that as I have shown you guys last week and this week we focus on largely delta neutral trading to scrap some theta profit off the table no matter how the market and all of the uncertain events of the week turn out.

So, how might everything turn out eventually?

Everything will turn out well of course! How else would my continued bullish outlook be fullfilled? Indeed, with the open attitude of the NK Chairman, the FOMC having no surprising move to make and Quadruple witching days tending to be just small volatile days, there's nothing really to be worried about as we await the fulfilment of the return of the bulls. If its that obvious, tend why would investors be cautious? Well, they just might decide not to be too cautious! I won't be surprise to see the market resume bullishness sooner than expected, as such, my money would be on the resuming of the bulls rather than on the pullback as it just might already have ran its course.

For now, the market remains in all out bull trend.

Bulls Return!

2018-06-04T04:55:00.003-07:00

Welcome to a new week in the US market!

What did I say last week about how Friday's economic indicators are going to turn out? For those of you who could not remember, here it is:

"Friday is going to be a big one with 2 of the most important economic indicators releasing on the same day! That may cause some cautiousness today causing the bulls to slow down a bit but from the looks of the trend of both indicators, odds are that they are going to turn out well and push the bulls ahead"

And it was EXACTLY so!

Both ISM index and jobs report last Friday, the 2 most important economic indicators every month, turned out better than expected (well, perhaps only I expected them to turn out this well), acting as the catalyst for the market to power upwards, thus completing the bullish reversal pattern of last week. The S&P500 gained 1.08% on Friday itself and with both the technicals and fundamentals lined up so strongly, as well as the US NK summit confirming once again, there are no reasons at all I can find to doubt this new bull leg! In fact, the Nasdaq has already reversed its intermediate trend from neutral back up to bullish and from the way it usually leads the way for the rest of the market, I don't see why the S&P500 won't be joining in soon!

Enjoy the bulls while it last!

For now, the market turns a short term bull trend within the framework of an intermediate neutral trend and primary bull trend.

CLIFF AHEAD!

2018-05-29T05:44:00.001-07:00

Welcome back from the Memorial Day long weekend!

Memorial day always reminds me of something and no, its got nothing to do with American history since I am not American. Memorial day reminds me its another half a year once again. Yes, the Memorial day long weekend marks the final weekend of May and the start of June and that means we are already at the halfway point of 2018. Yes, something about 2018 makes time pass really fast.

Last week, after I said that the "next two days" is going to be dangerous, the next two days, which was Thursday and Friday turned out to be volatile sideways days with minimal day to day difference but huge intraday range indeed. Investors were clearly cautious ahead of the long weekend and that begs the question, are they going to continue that way this week?

Well, so far, the intermediate trend returning to a bullish stance still seem very much intact but the short term outlook seems a little shaky at this moment. The 2750 level seems to be exerting a bigger pressure on the minds of investors than I initially expected and now, it seems like investors are still selling on the green. As such, I would say the outlook this week is neutral uncertain because from here, investors could return and attempt to break the 2750 level or let the market breathe a little, pull back for a week before trying. Either way, I still do see a 2750 level break because theres no reason why it should not.

However, I am skeptical that the market is capable of breaking the January high this year before the real market crash hits.

Yes, if you guys still remember my overall outlook for the year, I expect this year to be the final bullish year before the real market crash (When most other analysts in the world expected 2018 itself to be that year), just like 2007. One thing about those years before a market crash is this: a new high made somewhere early in the year followed by a failure to challenge and break that level and then its down down down. I now believe the January high to be that unbreakable high that would lead on to the market crash in 2019. As such, I am expecting a somewhat slow crawl towards that level for the rest of the year. Yes, what I am saying is, the best times of 2018 is very likely... OVER.

It is once again the kind of market condition for the most nimble and sophisticated traders to play in. If you are not that kind of trader, you need to find help on how to profit under such conditions.

For now, the market remains in short term and intermediate term neutral trend within the framework of a primary bull trend.

DANGER AHEAD!

2018-05-24T05:19:00.001-07:00

I received an email today telling me how he was "in complete awe" over my market analysis yesterday. This was what I said yesterday:

"All in all, even if the market opens negative today, I am more inclined to think that today is going to be a low open high close day"

(I only publicly post my reports here every few days. To receive my reports daily by email, please subscribe by clicking on the yellow button on the right beneath my profile photo.)

Being able to be as accurate as to correctly call a day a negative open and positive close day when the media yesterday was rattling away at how badly Trump supposedly screwed up. Of course, to be able to make such a call I give thanks to God who has guided me along this path for so long and given me tools and the right eye to tell what is going on and ultimately bring it to fruition. Apart from that, it has been my decade long practise not to be distracted by the news and stick only to my own research and experience and it has since paid off.

Even though I would normally say that this is when the market completes a turn around pattern and challenge new highs, I am more hesitant today. Why? Because yesterday's positive day was actually a bearish positive day with professionals rushing out of the market rather than in to it. Something about the 2750 level seems to be scaring people away and I won't be surprised to see yet another failure around this area to go back and retest the 200MA.

As such, the next two days is going to be very dangerous.

The next two days is going to determine if the market is ready to break this intermediate neutral framework for real or retreat and continue to bounce along within it. At this time, from how investors are reacting, I would say its a 50/50 chance and therefore a great time to take some short term bullish profit off the table if you have any.

For now, the market remains in short term and intermediate neutral trend within the framework of a primary bull trend.

I was WRONG!

2018-05-21T04:48:00.000-07:00

Welcome to Week 4 of May!

So, I was wrong at last!

The US Market did not challenge the 2750 level last week like I expected it to. In fact, I was so grossly wrong that the market actually closed negative last week by 0.26%!

So, does that mean everything I said was wrong? Was the past 2 weeks just a fake out and the market is just ready to turn around, crash and take everything back leaving us looking like idiots?

Well, not really...

Even though last week was a negative week, it was what I call a "Bullish Negative Week". Why is that? Well, last week's pullback is the kind of typical pullbacks in every bull trend that not only isn't dangerous, but sets up better prices for investors to jump in on and therefore resulting in new highs! In fact, without such healthy pullbacks, the market could get dangerously overbought, resulting in investors not knowing when to jump in anymore. In fact, the way the S&P500 rest on the 10SMA last Friday, which is a powerful short term bullish support, I expect to see the market actually jump on Monday, completing a bullish continual pattern.

Lets look forward to a great week ahead!

For now, the market turns a short term neutral trend within the framework of an intermediate neutral and primary bull trend.

Bulls Return

2018-05-17T05:24:00.001-07:00

Exactly on the dot and like a tame little puppy, the US market rallied yesterday exactly how I said it would yesterday morning in my report for paid subscribers. No surprises there at all (even though I can imagine the surprise of almost all the analysts in the world who disagreed with me yesterday).

Here was what I said yesterday:

"As such, even though I expected this week to be a dangerous negative week, I would think that we could see this turn around within these 2 days"

(I only publicly post my report here every 2 or 3 days. To receive my reports daily in your email, please subscribe by hitting the yellow button on the right below my profile photo)

More than just a positive close day, it was a truly bullish day with bond yields rising in response to to investors returning to equities and total equities trading in favor of call options. The S&P500 is also back down near to its 10SMA which is traditionally its strong short term bullish support especially when interpreted within the framework of a primary bull trend. All in all, I can't see any reason the market won't continue upwards from here and possibly test the 2750 level this week.

For now, the market returns to a short term bull trend within the framework of an intermediate neutral trend within a primary bull trend.

Bear Crossing Ahead...

2018-05-14T05:29:00.004-07:00

Welcome to Week 3 of May!

This is also expiration week for the May options so me and my RTF students are all standing by to take profit on our strategy this coming Friday! NICE!

Last week was just pristine. US Market did everything exactly what I said and closed its strongest week since March. But, like I said last week, this is when it all gets DANGEROUS. (Yes, so if you are late to the party, this could be a terrible time to be newly long) Yes, the market is now short term overbought from last week's huge gains and it is time now for some profit taking. In fact, investors and options traders echoed that sentiment last Friday by depressing bond yields as investors rush back to the safety of bonds and options traders returning total equities put call ratio to par from a call options inclined trading posture, DESPITE it being a positive day last Friday.

In fact, the Nasdaq did close negative last Friday and the Nasdaq usually leads the way for the rest of the market. As such, I would be very cautious about going newly long this week. In fact, my subscribers and I took profit on our profitable call options on QQQ last Friday. If you are going to be newly long, you really want to buy in on the dips instead as the way ahead still looks very bullish.

Yes, I expect to see a short, perhaps 1 week pullback, before the bulls return again. Trump continues to work extremely important global trade ties like how he reached out to China today as economic data continues to improve. Everything still looks good to fulfill my positive 2018 but market crash 2019 prediction.

For now, the market remains in short term bull trend within the framework of a neutral intermediate trend and a primary bull trend.

End Of Run... For Now...

2018-05-11T04:45:00.003-07:00

No surprises in the US market yesterday as the S&P500 continues to reach for that 2750 points level I predicted on Monday.

However, what I don't like is how the market has moved so much so quickly that it is once again on short term overbought condition. In fact, investors smelt this scent of overbought-ness yesterday and actually sold out of equities and returned to the safety of bonds, depressing bond yields as the late herd took over... late to the game as always. As such, this is once again not time to be newly long or newly on calls but a great time to take profit on your existing profitable longs and calls. If you are my student or subscriber, you would be taking profit with me today as well.

For those of you who have waited and waited and only thinking of getting in now that you see the bulls are "kinda real", you belong to the herd taking over from the clever money getting out now.
I am not saying the market is going to be negative today. No. In fact, chances are still good the S&P500 is going to try to reach the 2750 level. But, I won't bet on a very bullish next week.

As for me, its time to take profit and enjoy the weekend!

For now, the market remains in short term bull trend within the framework of an intermediate neutral and primary bull trend.

Bull Will Run... Why?

2018-05-09T05:43:00.002-07:00

2 weeks ago, a lot of my subscribers acted against me and many even unsubscribed only because they think the market is going to crash while I kept going on the bullish side.

2 weeks later, one of them emailed me how he regretted betting against me and hope to get back in on my program. That's the reason why only a few win and most will lose. Because the opinions of the few always sound like nonsense to the many and the past 2 weeks completely proved my point.

Market continued upwards, following up on the rising bottom formation breakout of last week with all internal signs and fundamental economic indications supporting this bullish reversal. No surprise to me at all and yes, I profited from it. Why was I right and so many wrong? Because most people think they have to wait and see what Trump say or do before they know where the market is going.

WRONG.

The market is driven on MUCH MORE forces than just one man's words! That is how I have been able to CONSISTENTLY predict what the market is going to do down to daily trends! Because there are A LOT more to look at to know what investors and the stock market is going to do and in fact, I don't even follow what Trump says! LOL! Yes, I don't at all! One man does not influence the market the way the news have all of you believe. If that is so, the market would truly be unpredictable and I would not have been able to make a living over the past 16 years predicting and trading in the market!

So yes, the market is still on track upwards, even though the market closed marginally negative, its still bullish by all accounts and internal indications still point strongly bullish. As such, I don't see why the market won't challenge the 2750 points level like I predicted on Monday.

For now, the market remains in short term bull trend within an intermediate neutral trend and within the framework of a primary bull trend.

Smart Money To Reverse The Market!

2018-05-02T05:45:00.001-07:00

The week so far has continued to be volatile! Even though I mentioned on Monday that the market should be ready to fly this week but having the FOMC announcement today and BIG FAT economic data like yesterday's ISM index and Friday's Jobs report, this week proved to be more volatile than I expected. However, that did not stop the market from being overall bullish the way I have expected it. This was especially apparent in yesterday's market action as the market reached down deep red before staging a huge come back during the final hour or so.

And what do market veterans call this kind of market action?

They call it the "Smart Money".

Smart money comes in towards the end of the day and food for the market comes in towards the beginning and yesterday was definitely textbook smart money pouring in. Smart money pouring in late, forming a huge hammer candle at this junction, almost rebounding once again off the 200MA intraday, is an EXTREMELY bullish signal that continues to support my bullish recovery outlook. This is especially so when yesterday's ISM index actually turned in worse than expected and even that didn't stop investors from getting back in on the better prices, which makes this recovery an even stronger one.

I have no doubt that from here, the market is going up and up.

Bullish Breakout Looming!

2018-04-30T05:17:00.003-07:00

Welcome to the final trading day of the first 1/3 of the year!

Yes, what a lot of people don't get it is that not only do quarters mark major milestones in the market, 1/3rds do too and usually marks big changes in the market as well. And this time round, as the first third of the year comes to a close, I do expect some big changes in the market as well. And what is that?

A major bullish breakout!

Yes, the first third of the year has been the most volatile in years and it has come to a point where both the technical pattern and the general market sentiment is crying out for a bullish breakout. Yes, just like what I said at the start of the year, I expect this year to be like 2007, a run up year before the market crash which, from how the bonds market and global economic data is lining up, seems to suggest some time around 2019. As such, I don't see this intermediate correction end in any other way but a resuming of the previous bull trend.

On the technical front, the S&P500 formed an clear, textbook styled, bullish wedge formation with bottom raised by its 200MA (or some call symmetrical triangle, I personally don't see why its symmetrical), a bullish formation which is so textbook styled that any half decent professional investor would have noticed it and would be acting on it. As such, I personally do not see the market going any other ways either.

So, lets enjoy the ride upwards!

For now, the market remains in short term neutral trend within an intermediate neutral trend and primary bull trend.

Things Get Dangerous...

2018-04-18T04:56:00.000-07:00

US Market closed a strong day EXACTLY how I said it would yesterday! Here was what I said:

"Even so, I and expecting and won't be surprised to see today close a very strong bullish day, taking the S&P500 above its 30SMA before things get really dangerous"

(I only publicly post my reports here every other day. To receive all my reports by email, please subscribe now by hitting the yellow button on the right below my profile photo!)

So yes, the SP500 has managed to close above its 30SMA strongly like I said it would and, like I said it would again, this is when it can get very dangerous. From here a strong opening typically leads to a negative close and a failure of the reversal. In fact, even if this reversal holds, moving down to retest the 30SMA for support before moving higher is high probability pattern as well. As such, all in all, at this point in time, I see more short term downside than upside and a reassessment of the coming short term downside will be necessary to ascertain its nature, whether a retest of the 30SMA or yet another failure to breakout for real.

For now, if you have profitable longs, you should really look towards taking profit on them today when market opens positive.

For now, the market remains in short term bull trend within an intermediate neutral trend within the framework of a primary bull trend.

Bulls Will Go On...

2018-04-16T05:43:00.000-07:00

Welcome to week 3 of April, which is expiration week for April regular options!

Last week unfolded exactly how I said it would, UPWARDS. This was what I said last Monday morning:

"In fact, from the higher lows that have been formed throughout the whole of last week, I am actually more convinced than ever that this IS a bullish reversal point! :)"
(I only publicly post my reports here every other day. To receive all my reports by email, please subscribe now by hitting the yellow button on the right below my profile photo!)

And so it was. The US market pivoted and turned upwards despite economic numbers being worse than expected generally. Last Friday, the US market closed down strongly but is really just a neutral candle that did a higher high and a lower low while bond yields and total equities put call ratio remain unsupportive of its bearish movement. As such, I would call last Friday a cautionary profit taking day after a good week's run. Also, the Monday following such a Friday tends to be a strong bullish one as well. As such, I do continue to see more upside possibility than downside possibility this week.

The only big event of the week is Friday's options expiration which typically do not significantly affect equity prices. As such, I do not see any reason why the market won't continue upwards in realisation of my bullish reversal prediction.

For now, the market remains in short term bull trend within an intermediate neutral trend within the framework of a primary bull trend.

What Did I Say?

2018-04-10T01:28:00.000-07:00

What did I say about the US China trade war in my report yesterday?
(I only publicly post my reports here every other day. To receive all my reports by email, please subscribe now by hitting the yellow button on the right below my profile photo!)

Check the news now and see what happened?

China just have to make one statement and everything is defused! That's the way it has always been. News and policies like this NEVER results in a market crash or an economic crisis. Policy makers ALWAYS find a win win solution, that's exactly the job that they do! Everything exactly as I have expected, including how the US market was already really bullish yesterday even before such a turn of events today. Why? Because investors are generally bullish at this point and only need a little push or a bit of an excuse to buy! Today, we shall see the market surge in fulfillment of my prediction!

For now, the market remains in short term and intermediate term neutral trend within the framework of a primary bull trend.

US China Trade War Market Crash?

2018-04-04T05:06:00.004-07:00

Exactly as I said it would yesterday morning in my report to paid subscribers, the US market turned around on Monday's oversold condition and closed positive.

(I only publicly post my reports here every other day. To receive all my reports by email, please subscribe now by hitting the yellow button on the right below my profile photo!)

However, it is again in my opinion, not a truly bullish day because the market traded well within the trading range of the Monday sell off. This makes it just another neutral sideways day. However, there is still not reasons nor indications to believe that the market is going to turn around south today Wednesday. In fact, it looks mostly like its going to be a low open high close kind of day, setting the motion for that high probability reversal I mentioned on Monday morning. This is especially so with the market futures already pointing sharply lower. Whenever the market futures overreact like that, the day usually ends up in the reverse way.

As such, even though the market still looks very volatile and at a very critical junction with news of a US China trade war blasting away hoping the market crashes, it just doesn't look like its going to work out that way.

For now, the market continues in short term and intermediate neutral trend within the framework of a primary bull trend.

Start Of A Market Crash?

2018-04-02T05:20:00.001-07:00

Welcome back from the Easter Weekend!

I hope everyone had lots of fun because I certainly did, viewing cherry blossoms in Jeju island of South Korea! :)

Even though its a beautiful spring with flowers in full bloom right now, things are not looking all that rosy in the US Market at all. One thing I did get right last week though was that, as usual, Easter week closed sideways / positive. One good thing about the positive day last Thursday is that it set the market up nicely in a rising peak, rising bottom formation which places the odds going forward from this point UPWARDS, rebounding off the February low as I have said last week.

Yes, the market is very very close to a market crash but not JUST yet.

I know a lot of people who thinks this is the start of that crash but I still don't think so because the necessary pieces are just not in place yet. Just like everything else in life, there is a chain of events that must happen before something big can happen, that's the same thing in the stock market as well. Even though a lot of people think the stock market just crash with no timing and no reason, that's just not true. Its only true for people who don't know what to monitor and what signs to look out for. For those people, even the weather seems random (I hope you guys know the weather ISN'T random).

Yes, the pieces for the market crash is coming together but not just quite in position yet. As such, there is no reason for me to believe that the market is going to suddenly go much lower and crash at this point without reason. So, if that scenario is not possible, then the only reasonable way forward is a recovery out of this intermediate correction and back into the primary bull trend. So, lets see what happens.

Even in this kind of market condition, money can still be made easily! If you wish to learn how to make 5% to 15% a month without guessing the market direction, sign up now for my RTF options residual income trading course intake 5 starting today here: http://mastersoequity.com/MOE_ridetheflow.htm

For now, the market turns a short term neutral trend within an intermediate neutral trend and primary bull trend.

How's Easter Week Like in the US Market?

2018-03-26T05:53:00.003-07:00

Welcome to Easter Week!

Yes, this is going to be a holiday shortened week with Good Friday holiday on Friday, going into Easter weekend!

So, how was Easter week typically like? Well, its typically a positive week, even within a bearish market. Even those times the US market did not close positive on Easter week, it didn't quite close a significant negative week either, mostly a sideways kind of week. As such, going by historical characteristic, I would say odds of the market closing positive this week is very high.

Indeed, a positive close is very likely due to how much the US Market was hammered down in a single week last week. Yes, I didn't see that coming. The brewing trade war between US and China has historically sparked severe volatility in the US market and once again, it is repeating that same pattern right now. However, such things has always ended in some kind of compromise that allowed all parties to move on positively... is that going to be the case this time round with hard handed Trump?

Looking at the technicals, what was shaping up as a classic bullish reversal out of an intermediate correction failed miserably, sparked first by the sudden implication of Facebook in the election scam and then the trade war thing. This failure is a very critical and dangerous one. A failed reversal tends to lead to more severe downside tests which rekindles the intermediate correction. Yes, we are officially back in the correction. The February low is going to be very very critical. If the US market fails to hold up and breaks the February low, this could lead to a very extended intermediate correction the kind we saw back in end of 2015. But no, I do not think this is the start of the long overdue market crash as its still too early and the pieces are still not totally in place yet.

However, due to how short term oversold the market was last week, I do not see why this week, coupled with the Easter week tendency, not be a positive week. However, I would be very very careful not to take this opportunity to go on the long side yet... this is still no time for high probability directional trading. This is of course when multi-directional trading shines the most, options strategies that works in all directions at the same time without having to pick one direction. If you wish to learn one such strategy, check out http://mastersoequity.com/MOE_ridetheflow.htm where I teach you how to make 5 to 15% A MONTH in residual income under all market conditions.

For now, the market turns a short term bear trend within an intermediate neutral trend within the framework of a primary bull trend.

Bulls Are Back!

2018-03-12T05:44:00.002-07:00

BULLS ARE BACK!

Welcome to Week 3 of March!

Week 3 of March, June, September and December are Quadruple Witching weeks, meaning, 4 different derivative instruments all expire together on the same Friday on these months, creating an exceptionally volatile day on the day itself and some abnormally bullish tendencies on large cap stocks.

This tendency continues to support the bullish breakout last Friday, which happened exactly as I have predicted last week, breaking out on the back of the Jobs Report!

This week's bullish tendency on Quadruple Witching week continues to support this bullish reversal! However, I won't be surprised to see some profit taking on Monday and / or Tuesday as some short term traders take profit off the table on their correct short term bet. Even so, the reversal pattern has been completed and there simply isn't any reason to believe that the bulls are back and that we should see new highs soon. In fact, both the bond yields and the total equities put call ratio are moving together at last once again.

All in all, exactly as I have predicted last week, the intermediate correction has officially ended and the bulls are back again.

Were you prepositioned to take advantage of this like we did? If not, you should really join me for just $1 at http://mastersoequity.com now!

For now, the market turns a short term bull trend within an intermediate neutral trend and primary bull trend.

Is This Intermediate Correction Ever Going To End?

2018-03-05T04:35:00.003-08:00

Welcome to week 2 of March 2018!

Spring time is here and no, it barely feels like Spring in the US market as the market continues to struggle with the February intermediate correction after a failed attempt to test and hold the 30MA for support early last week.

Even though the market has so so so sluggish and so so so disappointing for missing the last rebound point, it still does look on track for recovering the bull trend so far. In fact, like I said early in February, I don't see this intermediate correction ending easily with a V shaped reversal. That was why I was actually quite surprised to see the S&P500 reach up and close beyond the 30MA after a sharp V bottom. However, from the looks of it, my initial expectation was correct and that the bears just aren't giving up like that. However, that still puts the market pretty much on track on my initial expectation; reaching up and then failing before finding strength again for a real reversal. This seems to be just about when that is going to happen.

However, that being said, the next few days still look extremely dangerous as even though last Friday was a positive close, it was still a day with a lower high and a lower low, making it more of a bearish continuation day rather than a bullish reversal day. Options traders are obviously not onboard with that positive close as they continued to trade in favor of put options, keeping total equities put call ratio above 1.0 in favor of put options trading.

This week, the market awaits the grandfather of all economic indicators; the jobs report, on Friday. Consensus is expecting a slightly better reading which isn't hard to beat given the position of the non-farm payroll being at around the mid point of the last 12 months. As such, looking at how the market is positioned in relation to this report, we might see the bears continue through the week before finding strength from the jobs report for a real reversal.

For now, the market remains in short term bear trend within an intermediate neutral trend and primary bull trend.

End of Intermediate Correction

2018-02-26T03:42:00.001-08:00

Welcome to the final week of Feb and the first week of March 2018!

How time flies!

2 months of 2018 has gone by and so so much have happened in the US market and economy that seemed to draw a very clear line between 2017 and 2018; The biggest intermediate correction in 2 years with the biggest 2 days drop in 8 years along with yet another US government shutdown.

Even though the US government is still in shutdown, the US market has actually continued its recovery off the bottom of this intermediate correction exactly as I have predicted it. Indeed, when it comes to the market, sentiments, which is how things "feels" matter much more than what exactly happened. Even though a US government shutdown sounds really serious, investors just don't think its that big a deal and investors continue to be more technical oriented, which makes the recent market behavior so predictable.

On the technical front, I really like how the S&P500 rebounded right off its 30MA on the weekly chart. This strongly supports my outlook that we have seen the bottom of this intermediate correction and that things are ready to get better. Why can't the market just turn around and crash? Well, because market don't just crash without reason and there are pieces that needs to be in place to generate a market crash, something which so far has been developing but just not quite in place yet. This is why I suspected that this is going to be a 2007 style kind of year, building up to the market crash in 2018 as the pieces fall into place through the course of the year.

However, even though I expected this intermediate correction to put up some kind of fight on the S&P500 front while the Nasdaq lead the way for now, it seems like the S&P500, consequently the US market in general, is ready for the kind of V shaped reversal that I never expected. It is now up against its daily 30MA once again and if it breaks this level today and follow up on it tomorrow, it would almost confirm the end of this intermediate and that the market isn't going to make a double dip. Why did I say "almost confirm"? That's because it still needs to test the 30MA for SUPPORT after breaking it in order to confirm the reversal.

Like all first weeks of each month, the ISM index gets released. This is one of the most important economic indicators and how it does usually sets the pace and mood for the month. Consensus is expecting a lower showing and if it beats, it could truly provide the reason behind this recovery and therefore the engine for new highs.

So far, me and my Master's Stock Options Picks Subscribers as well as my Star Trading System students have taken advantage of this reversal with strategically placed call options early last week and we are sitting already sitting on profits. If you missed making a profit this time round, please don't miss the next opportunity to profit with me... sign up now for just $1 at http://mastersoequity.com/

For now, the market remains in short term bull trend within an intermediate neutral trend and primary bull trend.

Volatility Ahead!

2018-02-20T04:58:00.000-08:00

Welcome back from the CNY holidays and coincidentaly, its was also President's Day long weekend in the US Market! Hope everyone had a lot of fun and is ready for action again!

AND Welcome to the Week 4 of February 2018!

How time flies! Before we knew it, even February is coming to an end soon! So far, February worked out EXACTLY how I predicted it to in my 2018 prediction report at the start of the year!

It has been an extremely volatile February so far, starting from the intermediate correction I predicted at the end of January and then I correctly predicted once again, the bottom of this intermediate correction 2 weeks ago. However, as I said before, I don't expect this intermediate correction to give up so suddenly, leading to a sharp V shape reversal. With how steeply the market has climbed since that bottom, making 6 straight positive days, I would expect this week to be very volatile as the market take back those gains and then reach a point where it finds real strength to bring this intermediate correction to a close.

Supporting this outlook is also how the S&P500 retreated back down after touching its 30MA intraday last Friday. The 30MA is a critical resistance level in every intermediate correction and this one looks like it is going to hold.

In fact, investors also secretly returned to the safety of bonds last Friday, depressing bond yields, even though the market closed a positive day.

For now, the market remains in a short term neutral trend within an intermediate neutral trend within the framework of a primary bull trend.

Bottom Reached?

2018-02-12T06:19:00.001-08:00

Welcome to week 3 of February 2018!

The past 2 weeks unfolded exactly as I have predicted it to every single step of the way as the long long long overdue intermediate correction plays out at last. The S&P500 lost 142 points or 5.16% just last week alone and lost a combined MASSIVE 9% over the past 2 weeks alone.

This is the kind of intermediate correction that has been overdue since 2015.

However, as I mentioned in my report for paid subscribers last week, I also think that this is just about as far down as the market can and should drop. Here was what I said last Thursday:

"However, I do believe that this is as far as the market is going to drop and that Friday might be a big come back day for the bulls."

(I only publicly post my reports here every other day. To receive all my reports by email, please subscribe now by hitting the yellow button on the right below my profile photo!)

And indeed it was so.

The bulls took back a massive 86 points or 3.4% intraday last Friday to take the S&P500 from a deep negative territory back up to closing positive for the day, forming a strong dragon tail formation on strong volume, which usually marks the bottom of such intermediate corrections.

Indeed, even though I do not think that this intermediate correction is done just like that and that last Friday would be the magic pivot point to turn the market back upwards in a grand V shaped reversal, I do think that at least this is where the S&P500 is most likely to trade largely sideways in a volatile pattern until the weekly 30MA catches up again, which could be completed as soon as this week.

This is also February options expiration week and with the tendency of large cap stocks gaining value going into options expiration, this could also provide the possible fuel for the end of this intermediate correction.

Yes, I do not think that this is a market crash!

This is a classic intermediate correction off an an extremely overbought condition, that's all. Its a healthy thing to happen in order to set up better entry prices for investors to come back in and push the market to new highs.

Yes, new highs...

Even though I think we should see a massive market crash towards the end of the year and in 2019, the pieces just aren't in place yet. This is still the classic run up to a market crash, just like what we saw back in 2007. So, enjoy it while it last!

For now, the market remains in short term bear trend within an intermediate neutral trend within the framework of a primary bull trend.

Market Is Tame As a Puppy...

2018-02-07T05:01:00.005-08:00

Yes, even though everyone thinks the market is like a raging bear, it is more like a tame puppy to me because it is so predictable.

Can the US market be any more predictable than it is now?

First I predicted the plunge and then yesterday, just like a tame puppy, it closed positive strongly like I said it would in yesterday's report.

So, how about today? Is the bulls going to continue?

Well, I really don't think so.

From the cautiousness in the total equities put call ratio, I just don't see enough conviction in the market to say that this is a turning point

back upwards. In fact, going from past behavior, the market usually do that tug of war thing around this area before a new direction can be

decided upon. A tug of war of one big up day followed by another big down day and then up day etc in a largely sideways volatile pattern.

Yes, a plunge of such magnitude just isn't going to go away easy.

Lets be patient.

For now, the market remains in short term bear trend within an intermediate neutral trend within the framework of a primary bull trend.