The problems manifest themselves in zero search results like you see here.  It's interesting that eBay chooses this behavior instead of a page saying the site is down.  You'll notice that the sponsored listings and other advertisements are all doing just fine.

This is a bad buyer experience IMO because it makes it seem like eBay has zero (ipods, xbox, etc.)

There was a similar, but shorter outage last in in October.  There are four general buckets of problems that will impact a search engine like this:

• New software has bugs - Hopefully they haven't rolled new software this time of year, but if they did it would be a likely culprit.
• New hardware causing problems - Perhaps they slipped in some last minute new hardware that is having problems
• Existing hardware problem - Search engines require lots and lots of storage and lots of machines to hold the indexes and serve them quickly.  There's a lot that can go wrong in there. eBay invests heavily to make sure they don't have any Single Points of Failure (SPOFs in our world), so I doubt this is it - it would have to be pretty massive to see the impact we are seeing here.
• Existing software/system  bug/corruption - As the holiday sales period ramps up, software systems are put under pressures they don't see in other time frames. This can cause hidden bugs and problems to pop up. 

Judging by the hint given in the AB post - "errors in our  backend systems", I'm going to go with the 'existing system bug' theory, but it's all speculation at this point until we learn more.

One thing is clear, this doesn't give anyone in the eBay ecosystem confidence that the site will be up and robust for the critical next 30 day prime time holiday selling period.

Impact on sellers

Sellers are asking us if there will be some form of compensation from eBay.  I believe eBay has to declare it an outage first and then they automatically extend listings 24 hours as compensation.  You could theoretically argue that this isn't an outage as the front end of the site is up.  That's an empty argument as it's like saying your car is starts fine even though it has four flat tires.

The 'extend listings 24hrs' thing is a kick back to the auction orientation of the site and doesn't really apply to today's fixed price world where a days worth of sales have been effectively lost and extending listings won't bring 'em back.

Speaking of SPOFs, we've been guiding sellers that putting all of your eggs in one basket isn't prudent.  Today is one of those days that amplifies that message for eBay-only sellers.

What's the impact on you?

eBay Strategies readers, did you experience the outage?  What was the impact on your business?

SeekingAlpha Disclosure - I am long Google and Amazon.  eBay is an investor in ChannelAdvisor where I am CEO.

Anthony Mussucci has an article over at Daily Finance that you can find here, that nails that view better than I have been able to.  Here's a snippet that I found very succinctly summarizes what I think most of us in eBay-land feel and worry about:

The more eBay morphs into an online retailer and gets away from its roots as an online auction site, the more likely it's fighting a battle it's going to lose. While it's important to establish trust among sellers and buyers on eBay, trying tocompete with Amazon or Walmart and their online guarantees is a waste of time. Even if eBay can match the services offered by other retailers, why would a buyer chose to shop there? 

EBay's strengths are in the variety of old, hard-to-find collectible and discounts on new items. That's why people shop at eBay, and if the company moves too far away from that core identity, it may never rediscover its mojo.

SeekingAlpha disclosure - I am long Google and Amazon.  eBay is an investor in ChannelAdvisor where I am CEO.

This figure shows the results for 2009 so far graphically: (click to enlarge)

• Amazon led the pack (as usual) with 61% y/y growth - up from Septembers 55%
• Overall at ChannelAdvisor we saw things pick up overall very nicely from the high single digits to 17% y/y.
• eBay had a slight tick down to 4.73% from Septembers 5.1% - that's small enough that I don't think it's cause for any concern.
• Comscore hasn't put out their October numbers, but I suspect they will be flat to down slightly.

17 days to Black Friday!

SSS data disclaimer:

The ChannelAdvisor SSS data represents the combined results of over 3000 retailers.  ChannelAdvisor's mix may be materially different from that of eBay, Amazon or other channels.

SeekingAlpha disclosure: I am long Amazon and Google. eBay is an investor in ChannelAdvisor where I am CEO.

We'll wrap with 10 last-minute strategies that you can implement BEFORE BLACK FRIDAY / CYBERMONDAY and get that last little bit of juice out of your holiday sales.

For you eBay Strategies readers, there will be lots of eBay coverage as well as other channels you maybe on/interested in. (Amazon, Buy, CSE, Search).

I hope you are able to make it, registration is open here:  and if you aren't able to make it, the recording will be available on the same page about 24hrs after the webinar in the 'Webinar Library' section.  The webinar is at 2pm EDT.

Today, eBay has a microsite up here, that shows off all of the new holiday ad campaigns.  Here's the blurb used to introduce the campaign:

eBay isn’t just a marketplace for quirky old lamps.  It is a fertile shopping ground full of deals on both premium-used and brand-new items.  The mission of this campaign is to prove that eBay is THE place to get a deal.  We did this in a compelling, funny, stand-out kind of way to get people thinking of eBay in a new way: as the smartest place to shop for deals on the new and old, high-end and bargain.

They are split into categories: TV, Web Videos, Print, Rich Media banners and Other banners. Let's briefly tour each.

Talent

There are three, well four, folks in the ads that are all up and coming comedians from Comedy Central.

• Jim -Jim Gaffigan, has some CDs and DVDs out. He's got a dry sense of comedy and a good delivery.
• Michaels - Michael Ian Black and Michael Showalter.  You can find their Comedy Central show details here and bios on the links.
• Kevin - Kevin Hart - Stand up guy that tends to talk about his relationship stuff.  This is a great video (safe for work). 

Here's a funny sketch from the Michaels that will prime you for the eBay ads:

TV

There are three TV ad 'flavors':

• Kevin - this is the guy who's wife got last years dress at 40% off and now he's in chicken nugget hell.  He has two ads - Dress and TV.  Does anyone know if Kevin is a comedian or his full name?
• • Dress - we've talked this one to death
  • TV - I actually like this one, the cut to the TV is pretty darn funny (notice it covers the door frame),  and I think all guys can relate to the wife saying: "why didn't you get a bigger one?"  Tag line: "For deals on everything, big or small...Come to think of it, eBay"
• Jim - There are four Jim spots.
• Snowboard - pretty funny, guess he won't use it though as he doesn't even know what bindings are.  Tag line: "For deals on sporting goods, come to think of it, eBay."
• • Gift -This one kind of slams homemade gifts - funny shot of him in the store with the snow mobile. Tag line: "For a better deal on better gifts, come to think of it, eBay." P.S. Granny smells bad.
  • Treadmill -I don't get this one, he got a treadmill he's not going to use?  "For used stuff that's as good as new, come to think of it, eBay."
  • Vest - Vests are the thongs of coats. Tag line: "For new clothes for a lot less, come to think of it eBay."
     
• The Michaels - There are two Michaels spots - they are both called Michael and seem familiar, but I can't place them - anyone know them?
• • Camera - This one is the funniest by far - I won't spoil it for you - it's about a digital camera, but that plays a supporting role.  Tag line: "For the same stuff at better price...Come to think of it eBay."
  • Scuba - Pretty good, but not as good as other one. Tag line: "For a good price on great gear...Come to think of it, eBay. 

Personally, I'd have to rate Michaels/Camera #1, Kevin/TV #2 and then they fall off from there.  What do you think?

Web Videos

The web videos feature the same three folks (Kevin, Jim and the Michaels):

• Kevin - Talks about kids love gadgets.  Tag line: "Baby-proof your wallet, see great electronics deals" - note, no Come to think of it tagline, maybe it's in the surround or front/tail of the ad though that we don't see here.
• Jim - Boat, DVD, Gifts, Toaster, Toothbrush - a series of 5 where Jim sits in a chair and rifs on various topics. These are pretty good if you get his dry sense of humor.
• The Michaels - Bike, Mini fridge, headphones, gifts, video games - 

Print

There are seven different print ads - each featuring a product picture with a tag line in the bottom left with the 'come to think of it' tag at the end.  For example, Jeans says "New designer jeans for fifty percent off still make your butt look completely amazing." Other products are purse, cookware, tv, mp3 player, drill and crib.  The most snarky is the crib: "Your baby won't know it's last year's model.  Babies don't know anything."

Rich Media banners and other banners (online)

The three rich media banners are pretty clever- this fashion one features a walking model and you can see pop outs of all the clothes she is wearing and then find that stuff on eBay. The other two are cookware (Mark Sullivan is chef) and  mp3 player plays a Sydney Wayser song on a nondescript mp3 player.

The other banner ads are categorical and target: apparel, cameras, gifts, golf and cutlery with some clever little animations - for example you cut a tomato and pear with the virtual knife.

Conclusion

After seeing the complete campaign, the whole thing is growing on me.  I'm still not a fan of the 'come to think of it' tag-line, but I do like they are are showing a very wide range of things here from new to used to refurb and golf, cutlery, apparel, etc.  The comedians for the TV commercials were a nice touch and add some personality to things which should help get attention.  The ads started running on 11/3 so we'll report in if we see any bump in traffic or transactions from the campaign.  Readers, share your thoughts in comments.

SeekingAlpha Disclosure - I am long Amazon and Google. eBay is an investor in ChannelAdvisor where I am CEO.

• eBay still has some perceptions to fight - Maria introduces eBay as an 'auction site'
• They spend a lot of the interview talking about m-commerce.  FYI - I just finished a two part series on m-commerce and reviewed two application that do UPC scanning - check that out over at sister-site, CSEStrategies.com here.
• For feed readers, the video is embedded here so you may need to click through.

SeekingAlpha Disclosure - I am long Google and Amazon. eBay is an investor in ChannelAdvisor whee I am CEO.

• eBay still has some perceptions to fight - Maria introduces eBay as an 'auction site'
• They spend a lot of the interview talking about m-commerce.  FYI - I just finished a two part series on m-commerce and reviewed two application that do UPC scanning - check that out over at sister-site, CSEStrategies.com here.
• For feed readers, the video is embedded here so you may need to click through.

SeekingAlpha Disclosure - I am long Google and Amazon. eBay is an investor in ChannelAdvisor whee I am CEO.

A brief history of eBay TV campaigns

This is the first eBay campaign in 18+ months and the history of the pre-Donahoe era campaign has been less than stellar. Here's a quick synopsis with links were still on-line and the general feeling out there in the eBay seller base about the campaign.

• 2004 - The Power of All of Us - Too touchy feely - nothing about selling things.
• 2005 - Find IT on eBay - Pretty decent, hit on the variety that eBay offers.
• 2006 - Do it eBay - Fun, but probably too kitschy. 
• 2007 - Shop Victoriously - The last effort of the Meg era - we were 100% focused back on auctions and this was an attempt to talk about how fun that is (well, was).
• 2008 - No ad
• 2009 - Come to think of it, eBay

Come to think of it...

I've embedded the first video here in the blog for your viewing enjoyment:

eBay is saying there's another video on the way and that there are two print ads with these themes:

• "Get the same new bag as celebrities with money left over for a tiny dog." - hits on the 
• “last year’s music player will still play this year’s music." - hitting on the eBay secondary marketplace theme.

Initial thoughts on the concept

The idiom dictionary describes "Come to think of it" as "I just remembered".   When I first watched the ad, something bothered me about it that didn't click until I saw that definition.

There are lots of great stories that I think eBay could be telling as they come through this turnaround like:: "We should be your first destination", or "we are the source for the best deals" or "we had trust problems and we've solved them", or "Hey you know us for auctions, now we have some great fixed-price deals!", they are saying - ", but instead, eBay is saying: "hey please don't forget us" or even worse, "You probably have already forgotten us.

So while I like the ad content (his wife gets a dress for 40% off), the tag line is kind of weak to me.  eBay is a $60b marketplace and their big come back ad campaign positions eBay as an afterthought.

The jury is still out, but I'm surprised at the weak positioning of the campaign.  Come to think of it, you'd think they could have come up with something a little stronger?  What do you think - let us know in comments.

SeekingAlpha Disclosure - I am long Amazon and Google.  eBay is an investor in ChannelAdvisor where I am CEO.

Q3 - the turnaround in marketplaces seems to be working.

The metrics we watch most closely showed continued positive trends in Q3.

• Y/Y GMV (ex-autos) grew 10% compared to a trend that was as low as -16% in Q1
• Fixed price GMV is now 56% of GMV - up from 51% last Q  46% in the year ago period
• Sold items were up 30% y/y

The only concerning marketplace datapoint is the active user data which remains anemic - still topped out around 89m users.  This is up only 2% y/y.

Other interesting tidbits:

• eBay is previewing a diamond ring builder at http://diamonds.ebay.com
• Management seemed pretty up-beat during the call
• Donahoe mentioned they are going to launch a substantial Q4 campaign this year which sellers will like to hear.

Q4 - Hmm - storm ahead or conservatism?

So this sounds pretty good, what could be wrong?  Analysts were forecasting eBay's Q4 revenue to be $2.26b and eBay's guidance released today suggests a $2.25b mid-point.  This is clearly below expectations (albeit slightly) and some expectations were hoping to raise that mid-point which clearly won't happen.

Additionally margins came down due to a change in mix between the core business, BML and other lower-margin lines of business (Skype).

The big question from today's results are: Is eBay being conservative and managing expectations or are they seeing a grinchy holiday ahead?

We'll report the Amazon results via sister-site Amazon Strategies.

SeekingAlpha disclosure: I am long Amazon and Google.  eBay is an investor in ChannelAdvisor where I am CEO.