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This coming week investors will likely focus on consumer credit and jobs in the holiday-shortened week ahead. Some economists say the numbers are an indicator of the future behavior of the stock market on the grounds that an expansion of credit translates into growing corporate sales, earnings and stock price. Analysts are currently looking for consumer credit to decline by $2.5 billion in July after falling $1.3 billion in June.

Better-than expected unemployment figures Friday helped boost the Dow and other indexes to their first weekly gain since early August. For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 2.9% at 10,488; the S&P 500 rose 3.7% for the week to 1104; and the Nasdaq Composite Index ended at 2234, up 3.7% for the week. U.S. markets will be closed on Monday for the Labor Day holiday.

Currencies:

The U.S. dollar pared gains against the Japanese yen and extended losses against the euro Friday, with stronger levels for the greenback reduced after a report of slowing in the U.S. services sector last month. The dollar had gained ground against the yen earlier in the session after better-than-expected monthly jobs data from the U.S. Labor Department. But the dollar’s advance was softened after the Institute for Supply Management said its U.S. services-sector index hit 51.5% in August, down from 54.3% in July.

Commodities:

Gold futures pared some of its losses as the session progressed, and notched gains of 1% on the week. That’s gold’s fifth consecutive weekly gain. Gold for December delivery lost $2.30, or 0.2%, to $1,251.10 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

On the week, silver soared 4.8%. That follows gains of nearly 6% the week before. Silver on Friday settled at its highest price since March 2008, and gold futures came off their two-month high, posting losses as a drop in U.S. payrolls didn’t turn out as steep as forecast and thus reduced demand for the precious metal as an investment safe haven.

Stocks mounted a modest afternoon rally to close near the day’s highs as investors awaited monthly jobs data on Friday that will shed more light on the economic recovery. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 50.33 points, or 0.49%, at 10319.80. The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.06% to finish at 2200.01 while the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index gained 0.91% to 1090.08.

Currencies:

The U.S. dollar moved lower in Asian trading Friday afternoon, losing ground against the yen and euro with traders wary ahead of the release of U.S. nonfarm payrolls later in the global day. The EURUSD stood at $1.2824, up from $1.2820 in late North American trading on Thursday.

Commodities:

Silver hit a multiyear high on Thursday, riding the coattails of gold, and copper settled at a four-month high after encouraging housing numbers.

Gold futures on Thursday closed less than half a percentage point away from their record high, resuming their climb as investors continued to use the metal as a means of safeguarding wealth. Gold for December delivery added $5.30, or 0.4%, to $1,253.40 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. That’s 0.4% away from the June 18 record high of $1,258.30 an ounce, and a fresh two-month high for the metal.

U.S. stocks surged Wednesday after a reading on manufacturing activity climbed in August, defying expectations of a decline and helping to calm worries about the direction of the economy. The Dow Jones Industrial rose 254.75 points, or 2.5%, to 10,269.47, with all 30 of its components tallying gains.

Currencies:

The dollar declined against the euro and other major currencies on Wednesday after a measure of U.S. manufacturing activity unexpectedly improved last month, adding to evidence of pockets of strength in the economy. The euro rose to $1.2799, up from $1.2679 late New York trading on Tuesday. It touched as high as $1.2855 earlier.

Commodities:

Gold futures shed earlier gains Wednesday, as stronger U.S. and Chinese manufacturing data quieted fears the global recovery was stalling, increasing investors’ appetite for risk. Gold for December delivery settled down $2.20, or 0.2%, to $1,248.10 an ounce at the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier it had risen as high as $1,256.60 an ounce, within $2 of a record high settlement of $1,258.30 an ounce set in June.

Crude-oil futures posted their biggest one-day gain in nearly a month Wednesday, after U.S. and Chinese manufacturing surveys sweetened the outlook for global oil demand after petroleum’s sharp tumble last month. Crude oil for October delivery ended floor trading up $1.99, or 2.8%, to $73.91 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the biggest one-day rise for the most actively traded contract since August 2.

U.S. stocks see worst August since 2001. U.S. stocks finished a lackluster session little changed on Tuesday but finished the month with their worst August performance since 2001 as concerns about the economy continued to pile on. The Dow Jones Industrial Average  on Tuesday rose 4.99 points to end at 10,014.72.

Currencies:

The Australian dollar seized the Asian spotlight Wednesday, posting strong gains after economic data showed that country’s April-June growth beat forecasts. The Aussie was up 1.3% at 89.95 U.S. cents, after the Australian Bureau of Statistics said gross domestic product rose 1.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis in the quarter, topping economists’ consensus forecast for 0.9% growth.

Commodities:

Gold futures rose to a two-month high Tuesday, pushing August gains past 5%, and silver hit a three-month high as investors sought out both metals to protect against a faltering economic recovery. Gold for December delivery added $11.10, or 0.9%, to $1,250.30 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest since late June and less than 1% from bullion’s record settlement high of $1,258.30 an ounce on June 18. Gold rallied 5.6% in August. That compares to a decrease of 5% in July and is gold’s largest advance since April.

Crude futures finished lower Tuesday, adding to steep monthly losses, as plentiful inventories and concerns about an economic soft patch prompted investors to shift into gold and bonds. Oil for October delivery ended down 3.7% at $71.92 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange Tuesday, with declines accelerating toward the close of the session.

U.S. stocks fell sharply Monday, adding to losses for August so far, as investors worried about the economy at the start of a data-riddled week, which culminates with the monthly employment report. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 140.92 points, or 1.4%, to end at 10,009.73, near session lows. The Dow is currently off 4.4% for August, with only one trading session left in the month.

Currencies:

The dollar advanced against the euro and most other major currencies Monday as U.S. stocks extended losses, failing to derive any support from economic data on consumer spending and personal incomes or from merger news. The Japanese yen registered broad gains, erasing early weakness after an emergency easing by the Bank of Japan failed to dampen the currency’s recent strength.

Commodities:

Copper hit a 4 month high. Copper futures December contract adding 5 cents, or 1.3%, to $3.43 a pound. Gold for December delivery added $1.3, or 0.1%. Crude-oil futures declined Monday as stocks fell and investors waited to see whether key economic data this week would reaffirm their fears about the pace of the economic recovery.

This week’s major economic reports include consumer-spending on Monday, ISM data on Wednesday and the Non-Farm Payroll report on Friday. The ISM (Institute for Supply Management) survey of manufacturers is expected to fall slightly to 53.5% from 55.5%.

Affecting the Australian (AUD) dollar on Monday are Building approvals (month over month) and retail sales (month over month) to be issued 9:30pm US EST.

On Tuesday the Canadian (CAD) month over month GDP figures will be released before the market opens.

Wednesday will see the British pound (GBP) affected by the UK manufacturing report and homes report issued by Halifax Bank of Scotland.

Thursday keep an eye out for the ECB press conference, surely to affect the EUR/USD pair.

The major news for the week will naturally be focused on Friday’s Non-farm Payroll Report (NFP), which has produced disappointing results over the last two months.  Investors will continue to focus on meager job growth in the US, with a jobless rate ticking up to to 9.6% from 9.5%, following the layoff of temporary Census Workers. That number would also look far worse if it included the people who are too discouraged to look for work.

Job concerns to weigh on the markets

Lets look at how this will affect the major markets:

Stocks:

Last week stocks shot higher as investors searching for confidence were reassured by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s vow to do whatever it takes to revive the shaky economy.  Let’s see if that momentum continues this week.

Following his speech The Dow Jones Industrial Average vaulted 125 points, or 1.3%, to 10111 during early afternoon trading.

Currencies:

Japan’s yen erased its early losses against major rivals Monday, after an emergency easing by the Bank of Japan failed to stem the currency’s strength for long.

The dollar slipped to ¥84.94 from ¥85.39 yen in late North American trading on Friday, after rising as high as ¥85.88 after the special meeting was announced.  The yen hit a 15-year high versus the dollar last week.

The euro also slipped against the yen, buying ¥108.06, down from ¥108.75 late Friday and from a Monday high of ¥109.55.

Commodities:

Crude futures were little changed in Asia Monday, supported by a weak dollar, but lacking any upward momentum from supply-demand fundamentals.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in October traded at $75.11 a barrel at 0655 GMT, down 6 cents in the Globex electronic session.  October Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell 10 cents to $76.55 a barrel.

Oil has bounced back from a trough of $70.76/barrel reached Aug. 25 as investors renew their appetite for risk and sell the greenback.  The ICE Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, was down 0.02 at 82.74.

U.S. stocks fell Thursday as a fall in new claims for unemployment benefits offered only slight consolation to a market hammered by a recent spate of largely dismal economic reports.   The question on everyone’s mind now is whether US Federal Reserve Governor Ben Bernanke will call for further stimulus dollars to keep the recovery going on a sustainable path.   He will be speaking to the US congress on the matter today, which the markets will be following closely.

In trading the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 74.25 points to 9,985.81, with all but two of its 30 components ending in the red.

The S&P 500 declined 8.11 points to 1,047.22, with health-care companies and consumer staples weighing the most among its 10 industry groups.  Material and industrial firms fared the best.

Currencies:

The Euro has tested support at 1.2695 session low right at European opening, which held firm and the pair bounced up to reach session high levels at 1.2740, approaching Thursday’s high at 1.2765.

On the upside, above 1.2735 session high, the pair could face resistance at 1.2765 (Aug 26 high) and then 1.2795/00 (Intra-day resistance).  On the downside, immediate support lies at 1.2695 (session low), with next levels at 1.2650 (Aug 26 low) and 1.2585 (Aug 24 low).

The yen fell against the dollar and euro in Asian trading Friday after reports that Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan plans to hold a press conference later in the day to deal with the yen’s strength sparked selling on hopes that government may undertake some sort of concrete steps.

More Stimulus to Come?

Commodities Outlook:

Crude oil futures were slightly lower Friday in Asia against a backdrop of mixed regional equities, but were finding support ahead of a speech by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke in which he may suggest more stimulus measures for the world’s largest economy.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in October traded at $73.31 a barrel at 0629 GMT, down $0.05 in the Globex electronic session.  October Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell $0.18 to $74.84 a barrel.

U.S. stocks finished higher on Wednesday, after a late reversal helped the Dow Jones Industrial Average end a four-session losing streak, with investors buying up stocks of home builders and other consumer issues following further round of disappointing housing news.

In Asia shares traded mostly higher Thursday, with several indexes moving in and out of negative territory.  Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average returned from an afternoon lull to trade 0.4% higher, and the Topix up 0.2%, as the yen remained little changed from its morning levels.

Currencies:

The dollar regained its earlier advance versus the Japanese yen but stayed lower against the euro on Wednesday as stocks turned up after being weighed by softer-than-predicted U.S. economic data.  Still, investors started looking for real value and the trend is expected to continue in today’s trading.

The  strong dollar was supported by U.S. data showed durable-goods orders rose last month but at a pace far less than analysts anticipated.

The euro was also caught between Portugal’s strong bond auction and Standard & Poor’s downgrade of Ireland’s bond rating, while the yen fell back somewhat.  The yen tends to be the biggest loser when stocks decline, which currency traders take as an indication that investors are more comfortable taking risks and moving out of the safety of the low yielding yen.  The dollar also often loses against the euro when risk appetite increases.

Commodities:

Crude-oil futures ended Wednesday in positive territory, despite a surprise increase in inventories and weak economic data that offered little hope for a real surge in demand.

Crude for October delivery rose 89 cents, or 1.2%, to settle at $72.52 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after setting an 11-week low on Tuesday.  Earlier in the session, oil had posted an intraday low of $70.69 a barrel.

Crude prices have fallen nearly $10 a barrel in just over two weeks following weaker equities and a stronger U.S. dollar amid growing doubts about the strength of the global economic recovery.  While the bearish undertone prevails, analysts say crude might be set up for a technical bounceback in the near term with strong support around $70 a barrel.

U.K. stocks were broadly flat Wednesday, as losses for Tullow Oil were offset by well-received results from BHP Billiton and insurer Admiral Group.

The U.K.’s benchmark FTSE 100 index rose 0.1% to 5,158.60, helped by a 1% gain for heavyweight miner BHP Billiton after it said fiscal-year profit more than doubled to $12.72 billion.

A broad decline in U.S. stocks that sent the Dow Industrials briefly below 10,000 ended sharply Tuesday, after poor data on the housing market intensified worries about the global economic recovery.

Currencies:

The Japanese yen eased against its rivals during Asian trading Wednesday after hitting multiyear highs the previous day, with the market watching for possible intervention by Tokyo to curb the currency’s rise.

In East Asian afternoon trading, the U.S. dollar changed hands at ¥84.38, recovering from its 15-year low of ¥83.57 Tuesday.

Commodities:

Crude oil futures rose slightly in Asia trading Wednesday as fresh buying emerged after prices closed at their lowest levels in more than two months.

A weaker U.S. dollar against the euro helped support buying interest, but gains were limited by a fall in regional equities.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in October traded at $71.87 a barrel at 0653 GMT, up $0.24 in the Globex electronic session.  October Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange rose $0.36 to $72.74 a barrel.

Crude prices have fallen nearly $10 a barrel in just over two weeks following weaker equities and a stronger U.S. dollar amid growing doubts about the strength of the global economic recovery.  While the bearish undertone prevails, analysts say crude might be set up for a technical bounceback in the near term with strong support around $70 a barrel.