The past week or so has not been particularly good for the Obama Administration. There are now three potential scandals, which still do not directly involve the White House. As long as that is the case, then over time these scandals ultimately will work out for the Administration. The major problem for the Administration is their lack of providing all of the information, accurately and quickly. The lack of dealing with each issue accurately, completely and quickly may ultimately create many further problems.

There are so many allegations some of which are clearly going to be false. As an example, arnold read about an allegation that 15 of Romney supporters were audited. Well, if only 15 of his supporters were audited that seems to be way below the normal audit percentage. So there will be allegations which are essentially shifting the blame for audits or whatever from the specific taxpayer to the IRS. Remember that in allegations against the IRS, the IRS can not respond due to the confidential issues, so any claim can be made without any response. And thus some of these allegations will be whoppers (and I do not mean the hamburger).

The other interesting issue involving the markets is that the markets are completely indifferent to the Obama “scandals”. In this kind of environment with multiple allegations, the markets should be falling. Instead the markets are continued to rise, and this is still without any real reason other than the Fed stimulus. This at least at this point would suggest that there is nothing that would cause a serious impact to the Obama Administration.

The DJIA should be correcting but is not. At some point we will see a correction of between 8% and 12%, but of course this could be ?
Gold had a big day yesterday and now as this written is falling again. Gold could still rise to may $1800, but that still does not seem likely.
Oil is still trading in the $90’s, and could rise into the $100s.
Interest rates are still in a tight trading range.
The dollar is still trading water.
Real estate pricing is rising in many markets to levels that are too aggressive. There is a lack of supply with the foreclosures generally off the market and this is fueling the up market.
The economy continues to look up or down 1%.

arnold

Disclaimer: (found at http://www.arnoldsramblings.com/homephp/testpage/).

This has been a bad week for the Obama Administration. Even if all of the allegations are true, nothing illegal has been done, so it seems to arnold to be a great deal of effort expended for little result. Should the American people really know what happened in Benghazi? Yes. But from a tactical standpoint, a lesson or learning experience for future benefit. Nothing can undo what happened. Nor can my mother be brought back to life. We need to accept the reality of the situation. The IRS refusal to confer non-profit status to “conservative” organizations was also not illegal.

Speaking of reality: what is reality? Last week arnold was having a conversation with a close friend who was explaining that Tesla (electric cars) have a six month waiting list. Rolls Royce and Bentley’s are having record sales years, and that multi-million dollar homes are selling like, well, really well. The more expensive the cost, the better it is selling, my close friend stated. He chastised poor defenseless arnold for not recognizing that the record Dow Jones Industrial Average and the record S & P 500 was because everyone is doing so well. To paraphrase him, “you are the only negative person in the United States.” arnold attempted to explain that the situation we are experiencing in the United States is not quite as good as he portrayed it. You know with a real unemployment rate of 14% (those are the government’s own figures) and 3 million foreclosures and the low GDP growth and the manufacturing indexes at are near to recession levels. Yet, his answer was, “you are so negative”. Well, you need to judge for yourself.

The DJIA continues to move higher and higher. At some point we will need some correction of between 5% and 12% and then rise to new highs.
Gold has fallen again. We may see $1600 or so, but new highs are extremely unlikely.
Oil has been holding in the $90’s, so $105 to $110 is quite possible.
The dollar is still treading water and should continue to do so.
Interest rates on the 10 year Treasury have risen to 1.91% and is still in a trading range. If the ten year breaks up over 2.05% and stays there this would suggest that long rates are going to start to rise.
Real estate pricing is getting crazier and crazier. This suggests that another bubble may be forming.
The economy continues to look to me to be in the plus or minus 1% range.

Arnold

Disclaimer: (found at http://www.arnoldsramblings.com/homephp/testpage/).

The unemployment numbers that drove the stock market surging up do not even reflect the minimum numbers of jobs needed to create each month so that the unemployment rate would stay even. We need to create about 240,000 jobs per month just to stay even (with population growth). And the reported numbers such as manufacturing, which is just slightly better than a recessionary reading, and consumer spending, GDP, etc. All of these numbers are either getting worse and in recession territory or just above recession territory. The only reason that the stock market is soaring to new highs is because of all of the money from the Federal Reserve. When the Federal Reserve reduces liquidity back to pre-September 2008 levels, the US stock market will crater.

With all of the talk about immigration, arnold believes that we should go back to the good old days. Those days when arnold’s ancestors came to America. The deal then (in the 3rd century BC) was that in order to enter the United States, someone or some organization had to “vouch” for you. This meant that the immigrants were all self sufficient and not able to receive any assistance from the government. So, to clarify what arnold is saying, we the United States should encourage all immigration with a criminal background check in which the immigrants will each be self sufficient and not receive ANY government assistance (except Social Security and Medicare when earned). On that basis immigration is the only solution to solving the Social Security and Medicare underfunding and growing our economy again.

The DJIA, which has been making more and more new highs, does not appear to cooperating with arnold’s forecast. It would appear as though we are going higher than arnold had expected. That will mean whenever the correction occurs, it (the correction) will be worse than originally expected.
Gold had been rising towards the high $1500’s. If we stop here, then we are looking at the highs in place and the probability that we are heading lower.
Oil is still in a trading range up to $100.
The dollar has been soft and should continue to be so.
Interest rates are still in a trading range. The 10 year Treasury dropped to 1.63%, and has now risen back to almost 1.8%.
Real estate valuations are continuing to rise. It has been reported that defaults are back to 2007 levels (that of course ignores the 3 million plus foreclosures on the side).
The economy continues to look to be plus or minus 1%.

Arnold

Disclaimer: (found at http://www.arnoldsramblings.com/homephp/testpage/).

This week arnold had a medical test which he was told would be no big deal until after he had the test, and the test wasn’t a big deal - the pain is a big deal. So, it seemed appropriate (at least to arnold) that this would be a big opportunity to discuss doctors. Doctors are complaining about reimbursement rates from insurance companies, Medicaid and Medicare. These complaints have validity, yet doctors need to be more responsive to their patients. In all of arnold’s years, he has only had two doctors who he felt were concerned with their patients first, and considered themselves second. Now arnold is seeking another doctor like that and he has been unsuccessful.

**These are the rantings of arnold. I am forced to take them down and relate them to you. He (arnold) said that’s what I get paid for. - Michael

The economy clearly is not doing well. The early indicators are at best mixed. If you are like most people, you are concerned with earnings and sales versus expectations. But that is not what matters. Now in those cases, roughly 60% are beating earnings expectations and about 40% are beating sales expectations. But the real comparison is to the prior year, and in that category sales are down more than 60% and earnings are down about 50%. The economy is not really growing, not withstanding the last GDP report of up 2.7%. Most likely the final numbers will come in at 1% or less.

Last week, it was announced that Blackstone (a major private equity firm with major real estate holding in hotels, office buildings, etc) purchased 110,000 residential homes in and around Atlanta, Georgia. Blackstone is a lot smarter than arnold, but it still does not make sense. But what does arnold know?

The DJIA should be correcting but has not done so in a significant way, so it would seem that we will soon reach a top or that we will be rising to further highs. We need to wait and see.
Gold is recovering towards $1500. Gold looks higher for now, but we will have to wait to see if gold can rise above $1600 the ounce.
Interest rates are starting to fall again on the 10 year Treasury.
Oil has risen above $90. We will need to see if oil surpasses $100 the barrel.
The dollar is still treading water.
Real estate pricing is still rising in most of the worst hit markets, and holding or rising somewhat in the other markets.
The economy is looking to be plus or minus 1%.

arnold (as told to Michael)

Disclaimer: (found at http://www.arnoldsramblings.com/homephp/testpage/).

This has been quite a week or so. The Boston bombings and the response by the people of Boston - I (arnold) am really impressed. While I went to college in and around Boston, the never die attitude of the Bostonians was quite impressive. The alleged perpetrators have been either killed or apprehended. We as Americans should feel proud of metro Boston police, Massachusetts state police and the FBI.

The markets on the other hand are quite confusing. The DJIA have declined, but still seems to want to go higher. Gold is down almost $200 in less than two weeks and has started to rally, but clearly not sufficiently to suggest that the bottom is in for now. Oil has been down, but natural gas is rising (in price). Treasuries have dropped yield, but not by much. It is very confusing.

It seems to me that the markets are still focusing almost exclusively on the Fed(eral Reserve), and nothing else really matters (significantly).

The DJIA has corrected some. It should correct more, but it is not acting like it.
Gold had dropped to the mid $1300’s and is now back over $1400. It seems that gold will need to test the low in the mid $1300’s before any real rally can take place.
Oil is still in the high $80’s and looks to be in a trading range between $80 and $100.
Interest rates are down some to 1.7% or so. We may drop further before rates start to rise.
The dollar is still floating lower, and should start to stabilize and rise later in the year.
Real estate pricing is still rising in most markets primarily due to the 3 million plus properties in foreclosure being held off the market and the large scale investors.
The economy continues to be treading water.

Arnold

Disclaimer: (found at http://www.arnoldsramblings.com/homephp/testpage/).

The President finally issued his 2014 budget, only 2 months late. It appears that the President’s solution to our fiscal mess is that we need to spend our way to prosperity. President Obama has proposed spending trillions more on spending items, while at the same time OVER 10 years raising income by $600 billion and cutting spending by about the same. Hum, let me see. I (arnold) can spend $1 million today and then (maybe) pay it back over 10 years. How is that possible. If I spend $1 million today, I have to either already have the million dollars or at least know that I will be able to repay that million dollars on some reasonably assured basis. That does not seem the case with our government. For mere mortals, typically if you owe in non-mortgage debt more than you earn per year, you are considered insolvent. Our government owes $17 trillion in this kind of debt, with income of only $3 trillion or less. And that does not include the up to $75 trillion in underfunded social security, medicare, medicaid and pensions. Oy veh!

The President’s proposed budget reduces the Social Security COLA (cost of living adjustment increases) by switching the formula. Further, the budget has reductions in Medicare payments to doctors, hospitals and drug companies. As it is before this proposed change, many doctors, hospitals and drug companies were already opting out of Medicare and or seriously considering no longer accepting Medicare. Further cutbacks will ultimately lead to fewer and fewer choices for patients.

Gold dropped over $60 on Friday April 12, 2013, and over $100 on Monday April 15, 2013 providing what would appear to be a sell signal. What is definite is that gold should now not be a $2000 the ounce possibility anytime soon. Gold is rallying somewhat today, but this would appear to be insufficient.

The DJIA still looks lower first before breaking through to 1600 plus on the S & P 500.
Gold looks as though it may test $1200 or even lower.
Oil has not been doing well either, struggling to stay above $90.
Interest rates have been falling for the 10 year Treasuries back to 1.69%.
The dollar is still falling, but not significantly.
Real estate valuations are still rising in the worst markets and stabilizing in most other markets.
The economy still appears to be plus or minus 1% GDP.

Arnold

Disclaimer: (found at http://www.arnoldsramblings.com/homephp/testpage/).

We have experienced another frustrating week. When I say we, I mean the American people. The more information available about Obamacare indicates that there are more and more unresolved issues. As I understand it, there are list of required items that are mandatory coverage items with zero deductibles on the policies taking effect on January 1, 2014; and yet as I understand it, the list is still not available. And the law passed over 3 years ago! And then there is the issue that from the lowest premium for young adults to the highest premium for 64 year olds, the difference cannot be more than three times. This means that the premium the young adults will be astronomical - and more and more of the young adults will refuse coverage. Without the young adults paying with few claims, ultimately the premiums will soar even further since the older a person is typically the higher the cost of medical expenses. Uck! And then there are the state exchanges which was how small businesses were supposed to receive great pricing on health insurance. These state exchanges were supposed to be operational on January 1, 2014. But this past week, the administration delayed the exchanges for another one year. It does not make sense why it takes more than four years to set the state exchanges up. Yet, yesterday the early indications came out that premiums for “young adults” will be up as much as 189% in 2014. Those indications come from Congressional committees. The insurance companies themselves announced yesterday premium increases of at least 100% for “young adults.” Oy!

All this tumult regarding gun control. President Obama is demanding a vote, which he says is being blocked by Republicans. The Republicans will mostly vote against it. The real problem is that many Democrats will vote against gun control who live in moderate to right leaning districts. If those Democrats vote against it, then they will be defeated in primaries to Progressive Democrats who will lose the general election.

The DJIA should still correct further to maybe 1400 to 1450 on the S & P 500, then rise to new all time highs near 1600 to 1650.
Gold appears to be starting (finally) to move up. Will we see $2000 the ounce? maybe.
Interest rates are still in a tight range. The 10 year Treasury reached 1.69% and looks to be going lower, first.
The dollar is still flopping around, not finding a suitable comfort zone, yet.
Oil is still floundering around as well, and should attempt a run maybe to $110 or so.
Real estate pricing in the worst markets is rising to insane levels. This action clearly is unsustainable.
The economy is in a plus or minus 1% range for the foreseeable future.

Arnold

Disclaimer: (found at http://www.arnoldsramblings.com/homephp/testpage/).

Now that Cabinet Secretary Sebelius has finally admitted that Obamacare will raise health insurance premiums by (at least) 32% rather than cutting premiums by more than 20%, maybe we as a nation will actually look at what the Obamacare legislation really is. Well, as I understand it, that is still not entirely possible since parts of the law (passed over three years ago) are still not written. Then, we need to determine what it is that we want to do, and if this is the best way to do it, fine, if not then we should make whatever changes are necessary to improve (or eliminate) the legislation. Clearly, there are various aspects of the legislation that even the harshest critics would have to agree with, but then there are aspects to the legislation that even the most favorable disagree with, consequently these changes need to be made.

The comment on MSNBC’s Al Sharpton program by guest Mike Barnicle that the only reason people oppose Mike Bloomberg’s advertisement program against guns is because those who oppose gun control are anti-semitic, and I as a Jew find particularly offensive. We seem to be at time in the United States when one opposes a policy issue by President Obama, you are a racist. If you oppose a policy issue of Mayor Bloomberg, you are an anti-semite. This is extremely unhealthy and will in the end most likely in increased racism and anti-semitism, since the real issue is policy disputes.

The possibility of new immigration legislation now is interesting in that the legislation whatever it is will be very similar to what President Bush proposed during his administration. The reason that the legislation did not pass was that the Democrats did not want the Republicans to receive the credit for passage. This harkens back to the Civil Rights legislation passed during President Johnson’s administration. The Civil Rights legislation was passed by a Republican Congress, yet all of the credit went to the very Democrats, who at the time opposed the legislation. Now, should an immigration bill pass, since it will be signed by President Obama, the Democrats will receive all of the credit.

The DJIA should correct about 10% or so, then rally to new highs around 15000.
Gold should have reached $2000, but it is not acting as though it will reach $2000. The Cyprus banking debacle should have driven gold higher and did not. So, it would appear that gold will not reach $2000.
Interest rates are in a trading range still and will continue to be in a trading range for a while yet.
Oil does not appear to have much upside; maybe the low $100’s.
The dollar is still choppy and will remain so for the time being.
Real estate valuations are soaring in the worst markets; stabilizing in the rest of the markets. There appears to be another bubble forming in real estate.
The economy clearly is at plus or minus 1%.

Arnold

Disclaimer: (found at http://www.arnoldsramblings.com/homephp/testpage/).

The attempt by Senators Warren and Harkin to raise the minimum wage to $22 an hour is being promoted as benefiting the 3.6 million people who work at minimum wage. But $22 an hour paid for in 40 hours equals about $46,000 per year, which is actually ABOVE the median income of individual Americans. Consequently, this would suggest that at least half (or more) of Americans will be effected by this plan. That is the good news. The bad news is that businesses are failing now with a minimum wage under $8. The direct result of a $22 minimum wage would be 20% (plus) unemployment rate. Many businesses will shut down rather than sustain ongoing losses. Others will have to dramatically reduce staffing. Restaurants, as an example, would be forced to double (or more) their prices. So, that $42 filet will be $75 or $100. That fast food lunch which is now $6 or $7 will be $12 or $15. No one will pay these prices! Any business that employees minimum wage or near minimum wage employees will go broke. Virtually every single job for teens will end, since teens would not be able to justify a $22 per hour valuation.

My attempt at discussing cost savings approaches that would have no adverse affect on your life have so far been relatively unpopular. All of my suggestions were such that they would have not have deprived you or anyone else from anything which you already purchased. And it is in that vain that we will continue to operate. My next suggestion is relatively obvious, but to my surprise and horror a large number of people do not do it: When purchasing any product which sells by the pound or ounce, you need to compare weight point. So, if you are buying salmon and one choice is say $10 per pound and another choice is say $6 for eight ounces. Then the $10 per pound is cheaper by $2 a pound. If you are unable to do these calculations quickly, bring a small calculator with you and you will save big time.

The DJIA should be in the process of an 8 to 12% correction, say 10%, followed by new all time highs at between 14800 and 15200, say 15000, followed by much lower pricing.
Gold should still rise to $2000 the ounce before July 31, 2013 or so.
Interest rates are still in a tight trading range.
Oil looks somewhat higher to the low $100’s the barrel.
The dollar is still treading water and will continue to do so until the third or fourth quarter.
Real estate pricing in the worst markets is rising fast, other markets are rising, but not as fast. It appears to be another bubble coming this year or next.
The economy still looks to be plus or minus 1% for 2013.

Arnold

Disclaimer: (found at http://www.arnoldsramblings.com/homephp/testpage/).

When purchasing private label items, I use a two simple rules: first if it is less expensive than the prevailing brand(s) and secondly, if I can not distinguish the difference. As an example, I can not tell the difference between private label pasta and brand name pasta, except freshly made pasta. So, when we purchase pasta, we purchase based upon price. But in many categories I can tell the difference, and in those cases, we buy the brand. Many private labels are really good, others not so. You will need to experiment to determine which you like and don’t. You should not load up on private label products until you determine that you actually like them.

The announcement over the weekend is that the depositors in Cyprus are set to take about 10% haircut on their deposits. In New Zealand their Reserve Bank (the equivalent of our Federal Reserve Bank) is implementing a scheme whereby any bank failures would paid by the depositors. New Zealand does not have an equivalent to FDIC, so this would be their answer.

arnold believes that penalizing depositors for the sins of their bankers is completely wrong. It is unjust, it is simply wrong, but more importantly, if the depositors have to pay for the mismanagement of the banks, more and more depositors will choose not to put their money in a bank, and instead use cash. This would significantly and adversely affect that countries economy. There would be far less money in banking system, which means there is far less money to lend, far less money to invest, etc. This is not a good plan!

The DJIA should be correcting up to 10% or so, then followed by a rise to new highs at about 15000 plus or minus.
Gold should still reach $2000 the ounce; but is not cooperating.
Oil is still in a trading range and is unlikely to reach $125.
Interest rates are in a tight trading range and the 10 year Treasury has returned to under 2%.
The dollar is treading water.
Real estate is still rising and is behaving like a bubble.
The economy appears to be plus or minus 1%.

Arnold

Disclaimer: (found at http://www.arnoldsramblings.com/homephp/testpage/).