Previously I wrote at Apna Watan that if Manmohan Singh decides not to fight Lok Sabha elections then the opposition parties will legitimately make an issue out of it. Chances are that MMS will not fight elections and Advani et al are attacking him on the issue.

While the Indian Prime Minister could be either from Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha, historically all the PMs have been from Lok Sabha. Even the most insignificant Indian PM, Inder Kumar Gujral, went ahead and fought Lok Sabha election from Jalandhar. Rajya Sabha, on the other hand, is generally associated with political retirement. Recenly when George Fernandes was denied a ticket from Muzaffarpur, his party colleagues argued that he would be nominated for Rajya Sabha instead.

Fighting Lok Sabha election will prove that Mr Singh has truly arrived as a politician. He ruled India for the past 5 years and it makes sense for him to go to the public and sell his government’s achievements. Mr Singh has done a decent job as PM and can win from one of the many “Congress” constituencies across India if winnability is a concern. He continues to maintain a very clean image and has never been involved in corruption or nepotism. Mr Singh entering the fray will boost the morale of party cadres and instill confidence among other Congress candidates. He should actually lead Congress’s re-election campaign. It was his government afterall. Heck, he should fight from the South Delhi seat and win that seat for Congress just to get back at BJP.

If Mr Singh does not indeed fight elections then this issue has the potential of becoming a “Varun Gandhi” for the Congress and UPA. Manmohan Singh should take cue from Meera Sanyal who took time off from her day job to take the plunge in South Mumbai. For Mr Singh, this IS his day job and he should show up for work.

Lalu Prasad Yadav has been the most dependable ally of Congress and and his party Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) the biggest constituent of UPA with 22 seats. Mr Yadav supported Sonia Gandhi when she was under attack by Sharad Pawar et al on the foreign origin issue. RJD is the one of the few parties within UPA that never has had any truck with BJP. Mr Yadav was given the plum Railways portfolio when UPA came to power in 2004 and has been one of the most visible faces of the alliance. He took his new job as Railways Minister with diligence and turned the loss making PSU into a cash-surplus ministry. His management style earned wide publicity and Mr Yadav held interactive sessions with students from IIM, and even from Harvard.

Therefore it was a bit surprising to see Mr Yadav putting everything at stake and unilatelly announcing a seat-sharing deal with Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) and left only three seats for Congress out of the 40 seats in Bihar. That was one less than what the Congress contested for in 2004. Worse still, the announcement was made by Mr Yadav and Mr Paswan with Congess being kept out of the loop. Unsurprisingly, the Congress refused the RJD-LJP “take it or leave it” offer and decided to contest in 37 seats on its own. To Mr Yadav’s chagrin, Congress also decided to field Sadhu Yadav, estranged brother-in-law of Lalu Prasad Yadav, who was denied a ticket by RJD. Mr Yadav then decided to field candidates in the three seats which were earlier allocated to Congress and which were won by the party in 2004: Madhubani, Sasaram and Aurangabad. Congress placed 2nd on the fourth seat it contested in 2004.

Now with the announcement of a “secular alliance” by RJD, LJP and Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party (SP), the possibility of seat-sharing between RJD-LJP and Congress is almost zero. Strangely Mr Yadav continues to contend that RJD is still a part of UPA.

Neerja Chowdhury in an article argues that Mr Yadav’s decision was due to changing political configuration in Bihar. Nitish Kumar, the current chief-minister of Bihar, enjoys positive ratings with the public and has strengthened his image as an independent person by demanding action against Varun Gandhi. He did not allow Narendra Modi, the Hindutva icon, to campaign in Bihar during the 2005 assembly elections. A small percentage of Muslims voted for Mr Kumar’s JD (U) party during the polls and more are willing to give the party a chance in the upcoming general elections. Mr Kumar is also trying to build new alliances with the backward Muslims and send two pasmanda (backward) Muslim leaders to Rajya Sabha. Even though highly unlikely, there is a possibility that JD (U) might break away from NDA before the assembly elections of 2010. Therefore it serves Mr Yadav’s interests to deny the Congress any foothold in Bihar politics and thus making the opportunity cost really high for JD (U) to break away from BJP and a possible alignment with Congress.

Mr Yadav, a shrewd politician that he is, knows very well that the Congress and UPA would welcome him with open arms after the elections. Notably he hasn’t said anything against Sonia Gandhi or Manmohan Singh. In the meantime the more seats he can win, the better bargaining position he will be in after the elections. The problem with regional parties like RJD is that it is very difficult for them to expand base beyond their respective states. With the creation of Jharkhand as a separate state, where RJD has been reduced to a nonentity, Mr Yadav is much more keen to safeguard his turf in Bihar. His wooing of Ram Vilas Paswan and his alliance with Mulayam Singh Yadav is to be seen in this context only. Rather that them sharing any core ideology, it is a marriage of convenience, wherein SP will not field any candidates in Bihar and RJD-JLP not fielding any candidates in UP. Not that RJD-LJP would have won any seats in UP and SP in Bihar, it would have been more of an annoyance for one another. If anything, RJD-LJP have more to gain as SP’s vote share in 2004 elections in Bihar was 2.33% while RJD-LJP had less than 0.5% in UP.

Muslims have been one of the biggest supporters of RJD in the past, the growing popularity of Nitish Kumar among a segment of Bihar Muslims is forcing Mr Yadav to look for other electoral possibilities, notably with those Dalits that form the core base of LJP. There are atleast 15 seats in Bihar where LJP might play a significant role. Mr Paswan, after the electoral setback during Oct 2005 assembly elections, has realized that it still is not a dominant force in the state and needs to fight elections with another big party and RJD seems to be the best option for now. It must be noted that LJP when fought the Feb 05 assembly elections with Congress won 29 seats but got just 10 when fought essentially alone in Oct 05. Mr Paswan was so much against Mr Yadav that he refused to ally with RJD after the Feb 05 elections in Bihar leading to dissolution of assembly and fresh elections in Oct 05. That he has joined hands with Mr Yadav now just shows that the politics in India has been reduced to electoral arithmetics alone. Every party is going for opportunistic pre-poll alliances that will allow them to play a dominant role after the elections. In fractured verdicts, as will likely be case this time too, every seat counts.

It is difficult to understand why BJP is still standing by Varun Feroze Gandhi. The party seems to have been brought into by Mr Gandhi’s contention that the CDs are doctored. However there is little evidence to suggest foul play. If the BJP really believes that the CDs are tampered with then it can get them analyzed from a third-party independent agency and publicize the results. It may not be the last word on the issue but it will seriously dent the arguments being made out against Mr Gandhi. Furthermore the issue will be off the 24×7 news cycles and stop political hemorrhaging for BJP. It will also allow BJP to sharpen its arguments against UPA and the Congress.

As it is, the Varun Gandhi issue is causing serious harm to NDA’s chances of returning to power. For one, BJP can’t attack Congress on the “dynasty” issue as the party itself has given tickets to not one but two Gandhis – Varun Gandhi from Pilibhit and her mother Maneka Gandhi from Badaun. Narendra Modi can claim all he wants that one family has been responsible for India’s plight but the argument wouldn’t find any takers if his own party is promoting two Gandhis for no other reason than their surnames.

Secondly, BJP has been pounded in the media for its inaction on the hate-speech issue. All the major newspapers have been critical of BJP’s stand. Even the Election Commission had to issue a rare advisory to BJP to not to nominate Mr Gandhi from the Pilibhit seat. BJP’s own allies are getting increasingly critical of party’s stand. Nitish Kumar, the chief minister of Bihar, publicly came out against Mr Gandhi. The only outside support Mr Gandhi has found so far is from Shiv Sena and its chief Bal Thackeray – not because of Mr Gandhi’s stand that the CDs are doctored – but apparently because he was speaking for the “Hindus” and against the Muslims.

Thirdly, a lot of Indians are getting queasy with BJP and its hard line Hindutva approach. BJP lost TDP in Andhra Pradesh and recently BJD in Orissa for various reasons but hard line Hindutva being a major reason. JD (U) is also getting increasingly critical of BJP’s Hindutva line. BJP’s flip-flops and winks at the violence perpetuated by its off-shoots in Kandhmal and Mangalore and its non-stand on the Varun Gandhi issue has made more people distrustful of the party and its agenda. And then there is always Gujarat.

May be BJP is hoping that the case against Mr Gandhi would not be proven by some legalities. Or maybe it will take 12 years for EC to come to a decision as it did in the case of Bal Thackeray. May be the party thinks that it will lead to Hindu mobilization of late 80s and early 90s in the Hindi heartland. May be BJP doesn’t want to cede even an inch to its opponents just before elections. May be it is just about winning the Pilibhit seat and try to reach double digits in Uttar Pradesh. May be BJP’s stand on the issue emanates from political calculations alone. Whatever the reason, it is not working in BJP’s favor so far, and will continue to cause problems to the party for a long time to come.

A letter of reference written by the “Sister Of Prime Minister” Yusuf Raza Gilani. She is also “W/o Additional Secretary National Assembly” just in case if the first title didn’t work.

I am not sure if this is authentic but such fun!

A complaint was lodged at Teradal (Bagalkot, Karnataka) police station on 12th Feb 1999 against Pramod Muthalik and 20 others for “unlawful assembly” and “creating trouble to the police and the public”. Another complaint was filed in the same police station (PS) on 12th July 1999 against Mr. Muthalik and 32 others for “unlawful assembly” and “violating prohibitory orders”. On 10 Oct 2000 Mr. Muthalik and 27 others were charged with burning Samyukta Karnataka newspaper copies in public at Aigali PS (Belgaum, Karnataka). On 15th Sep 2001 a complaint was lodged at the Hubli New Town PS (Hubli, Karnataka) against Mr. Muthalik and 55 others for “assembly at Idgah Maidan with lethal weapons”, “pelting stones”, “damaging property”, “using filthy language against a community” and “obstructing the police to do their duty”. On 21st Dec 2001 a report was filed at Madakere PS (Coorg, Karnataka) against Pramod Muthalik for making a “provocation speech”. On 6th Feb 2002 Mr. Muthalik was charged with “creating trouble between Hindus and Muslims by provoked shouting and creating L&O problem” in Bilagi PS (Bagalkot, Karnataka). On 18th Dec 2002 he is again charged for making “provocation speech” in a complaint lodged at Chikmagalur Town PS (Chikmagalur, Karnataka). Some other complaints against Mr. Muthalik:

• 1st Mar 2003 – Hubli Rural PS (Dharwad, Karnataka) – “Provocation speech in a public meeting”
• 11th Aug 2003 – Javavgi PS (Gulbarga, Karnataka) - ”Provocation speech in a public meeting”
• 26th Sep 2004 – Vidhyatanapura PS (Bangalore, Karnataka) - ”Provocation speech in a public function”

So on and so forth.

These are just few of the 41 odd police complaints against Pramod Muthalik in Karnataka going back to 1999. Most of these relate to “provocation speech” or in other words “spewing hate and abuse against Muslims”. Unfortunately it took a public assault of women in the heart of city of Mangalore for the media and administration to recognize the menace posed by Mr. Muthalik and his gang of hooligans. However Mr. Muthalik has been spewing venom towards the the Muslim community for more than a decade under successive governments in Karnataka including Congress, JD (S) and BJP. His cronies even tried bombing a magistrate court in Hubli but unluckily for him, even that was blamed on SIMI and Islamist terrorists. Was it anger at not getting recognition as a hard-line Hindutva leader that explains Mr. Muthalik’s modus operandi lately?

After the Mangalore pub attack, Mr. Muthalik did try to bring his favorite punching bag, Indian Muslims, in play as the women were not only drinking but also allegedly mingling with Muslim boys. But even before the pub incident, Sri Ram Sene (Sena), disrupted a fashion show in Mangalore on 20th Dec 2008 as “Muslim boys were enjoying vulgar displays of Hindu girls”. Then on 26th Dec they stopped a bus carrying coaching students and beat them up for traveling in a mixed group of Hindus and Muslims.

It is difficult not to see what Mr. Muthalik is trying to do here: divide the society on religious lines with one community as transgressor and the other as victim, and then feed upon the sense of victimhood of his favorite community. It is wrong to assume that Mr. Muthalik chanced upon this “golden goose” only recently. He was the state convenor for Bajrang Dal and then the state president for Shiv Sena before forming his own Sri Ram Sene as the other organizations were too soft for his liking! It is also incorrect to say that he is a nobody as Rajiv Pratap Rudy argues in an interview. While Mr. Muthalik is no popular public leader, his ability to whip up communal sentiments and gather thousands for his “Hindu causes” is well established.

Perhaps Mr. Muthalik was just too frustrated to see his fellow Hindutva hooligan Pravin Togadia rise through the ranks or his ideological twin across the border Raj Thackeray hogging all the limelight. Perhaps he was just enamored of Uma Bharati who could lead a rampaging Hindu mob to tear down a medieval mosque and go on to become the chief minister of Madhya Pradesh. Or Narendra Modi who not only failed to protect 58 Indians in Godhra but over a thousand throughout Gujarat later, and still went on to be elected chief minister. Twice. Perhaps Mr. Muthalik has been following the career of Babu Bajrangi closely who is free and outside prison even after accepting his role in killing of scores of Muslims. Perhaps this is just a beginning for Mr. Muthalik.

One of the good things to happen after the Mumbai attacks was the unity and the sense of purpose with which India responded to the crisis. Congress and BJP – albeit briefly – rose above the political bickering and for some time it seemed that India would be finally able to convince the international community to force Pakistan to act.

However LK Advani – presumably the statesman in the party after AB Vajpayee – went to Mumbai alone even after agreeing for a joint visit with Manmohan Singh. In Mumbai he laid to rest any hope of bipartisanship with this gem:

 “It now appears that a mobile phone with a terrorist is of Pakistani origin. This reinforces the fact that intelligence agencies’ energy is being diverted to nail the so-called Hindu terror, which evidently enabled the Mumbai attackers’ plot to go undetected.” [Business Standard]

Couldn’t Mr. Advani at least have waited for the NSG operations to finish before pandering to the Hindu extremist elements of his party? Narendra Modi also turned up at Mumbai looking for political capital and offered lofty tributes to ATS chief Hemant Karkare when just days before he was castigating the same Hemant Karkare for his “biased” role in investigating Malegaon blast. Mr. Modi in his criticism of the ATS went on to say Jo kaam Pakistan bees saal tak nahi kar paya, Hindustan ne bees din me kiya (What Pakistan has not been able to do in 20 years, India has done it in 20 days). By Mr. Modi’s skewed logic, the arrest of Lt Col Shrikant Purohit for his role in the Malegaon blasts demoralized the Indian army!

Then AR Antulay jumped into the fray arguing that some people might have sent Mr. Karkare in the wrong direction for which he was rightfully and in some cases, severely criticized. The argument was that when GOI was in the process of developing a strong case for Pakistan’s involvement in the attacks, Mr. Antulay’s remarks, made as a cabinet minister, severely undercut Indian position. If he had any doubts then the best place to discuss it would have been the cabinet.

Now Narendra Modi has gone one step further Mr. Antulay and made comments that severely undermines the credibility of Indian position on Mumbai attacks. By arguing that the statement of Ajmal Kasab has no legal validity Mr. Modi allowed one more excuse to the Pakistani government to wishy-wash Indian position. No extradition, no trial and now no evidence. No wonder Yusuf Raza Gilani, prime minister of Pakistan latched on to Mr. Modi’s statement claiming it to be validation of their own position:

“Gujarat Chief Minister Modi has said that mere information cannot be evidence. He agreed with my stand that information is not evidence.” [PTI]

Mr. Modi very well understands that even though India has presented before Pakistan a whole dossier of evidence, including names and address of the terrorists involved, details of Karachi-Mumbai sea journey, satellite phones, call records and Pakistani made arms and ammunitions, Kasab’s testimony is one critical piece that ties everything together. India was, in a way, lucky to catch Kasab alive else Pakistan would have discredited everything as hogwash. Then why was Mr. Modi so keen to deflate Indian position on the attacks? Apparently because the anti-terror legislation that was recently passed in India does not have a provision – which BJP has always insisted upon – wherein a testimony given in presence of a senior police officer is admissible as evidence. Mr. Modi is definitely not naive enough to think that if India had such a provision then the Pakistani government would be any more willing to accept Indian contentions that what it has done in its absence. However, by bringing it up, Mr. Modi has undoubtedly weakened the Indian position.

Now Mr. Modi is well within his rights to criticize the new anti-terror bill not having this provision. His party could have made it a poll plank if India’s case was thrown out by the international community by the lack of this very provision. But to talking about it now is neither advisable nor required. This “pre-emptive strike” by Mr. Modi should have been avoided and the central BJP leadership needs to distance itself from Mr. Modi’s statement lest it might cause further damage than it already has.

Rohit lists down prime ministerial candidates for the upcoming general elections in India. Basically there are three: Manmohan Singh, LK Advani and Mayawati. While Singh and Advani are the declared candidates of their respective coalitions, Mayawati might emerge as the candidate of the third front if either UPA and NDA fail to garner enough seats for government formation.

Congress very cleverly floated the name of Rahul Gandhi as a prime ministerial candidate just to test the waters. Pronouncements of support for Gandhi came from party leaders and senior ministers. It was helped with the ascension of Omar Abdullah as the chief minister of Jammu & Kashmir who is also young like Gandhi and scion of a political dynasty. Once satisfied that the idea has got enough traction Sonia Gandhi herself came out to confirm that Manmohan Singh would indeed by the Congress nominee and Rahul “can wait”.

Manmohan Singh hasn’t yet confirmed if he will fight the general elections. Singh has only fought general elections once in 1999 when he lost the South Delhi seat to VK Malhotra. Singh currently is a Rajya Sabha member from Assam and his tenure will expire in 2013. It will be interesting to see if he actually decides to fight Lok Sabha elections and if he does, which state and which seat. If he doesn’t then the opposition parties will legitimately make an issue out of it.

LK Advani having waited for this moment for so long and having moderated his stance through years to be more acceptable had his position unexpectedly challenged by a 85 year old BS Shekhwat. Then there were the industrialists who came out in support of Narendra Modi and Modi took four days to deny that he isn’t a candidate this time around. BJP also is facing a revolt from Kalyan Singh who switched parties to join hands with Samajwadi Party and partnership with Shiv Sena is under threat on the Belgaum issue. And all this following less than stellar performance of the party in the recenly concluded state elections!

Mayawati is one of the smartest politicians in India. IMHO one of the reasons she broke her alliance with the Congress was to hedge her bets for the 2009 elections. She tested BSP’s mettle on its own in the assembly elections and performed decently at the hustings. Also, had she fought general elections as part of UPA then she would have to kiss her prime ministerial ambitions good-bye. UPA, as Manoj Tiwary strongly rebuffed NCP’s shout-out for Sharad Pawar, already has the position filled. Mayawati is keeping her options open and her best bet is to emerge as the consensus leader of the third front in case of a really hung parliament. Parties that might go with her are TDP, either AIDMK or DMK, AGP, either JDS or JDU, TRS. Possibly Left front with outside support. Parties that will not go with her are RJD, LJP, SP and Shiv Sena. NC and Akali Dal seem unlikely.

We sure are in for a few very interesting months.

I object to violence because when it appears to do good, the good is only temporary; the evil it does is permanent.

- Mahatma Gandhi

Activists belonging to a Maharastra youth organization, Chhava Sanghatana, have torched a Karnataka State Road Transport bus in Latur. A cab bearing Karnataka registration plate was also stoned in the bordertown of Kamalanagar injuring one person. In a related development two Bangalore-bound trucks carrying goods from Mumbai were stopped and torched by activists allegedly belonging to Karnataka Rakshana Vedike.

These incidents follow days of rising tensions between Maharastra and Karnataka on the Belgaum border dispute. Shiv Sena chief Bal Thackeray has been shaperning his rhetoric over the past couple of days on the issue and now they plan to take a delegation to the Prime Minister and President to apprise them of the situation. Karnataka chief minister, BS Yeddyurappa, is also urging center’s intervention on the issue.

Mob violence has been the bane of contemporary Indian society. Mumbai and Maharastra has seen many of such incidences in recent history. Bhandarkar Oriental Research Institute (BORI) was attacked by the members of Sambhaji Brigade for helping an American author James Laine to write a biography of Shivaji. Incidentally BORI, the victim in this case, now is demanding a ban on the book (which reminds me of Salman Rusdie confessing his “sin” and proclaiming himself to be a true Muslim after the death fatwa was issues against him). There was violence against Dalits in Khairlanji where four people were killed and women were paraded naked and then allegedly gang-raped.

Then there have been shameful incidents of violence in Mumbai and elsewhere in Maharastra targeting North Indians leading to many deaths. And finally there have been riots, the most gruesome being the post-Babri Masjid demolition riots in 1992-93.

One of the reasons people can attack public or private property with impunity is that there is no fear of legal reprisal. The government lacks the will to deal with such miscreants. Even though six people were sentenced to death in the Khairlanji in September 2008, largely the culprits go unpunished.

We should understand that what goes around, comes around. If the people of Maharastra tolerate violence against people in their state then it will come back to haunt them. People like Raj Thackeray are playing with the emotions of people and now with two Senas, there is a competition for the most “hardline” advocate of the Maharastrian cause, whatever that means. Coming on the heel of 26/11 Mumbai attack when the entire nation responded as one, Maharastra politicians are in danger of losing the goodwill that was created for the state. It is hard to find parallels in other states of India where hate-mongers like Bal and Raj Thackeray have been tolerated for so long. 

The Karnataka government should also act against the miscreants that are causing disturbance in the state and perpetuating violence against Maharastrians. It is also an opportunity for the BJP leadership to show some spine and do away with their alliance with Shiv Sena. Regional satraps such as Thackerays whose entire careers are based upon inciting hate and violence against other Indians have no place in contemporary Indian polity. Let 2009 be the end of such divisive politics.

Indian Express in their story celebrating the birthday of Javed Akhtar starts by:

If Goddess Saraswati is called as the ‘Goddess of Education’, then, Saturday’s Birthday boy can be aptly called as the ‘Lord of the Poetry’. No prizes for guessing as to we are talking about the one and only ageless wonder of the literary world as well as Bollywood…Shri. Javed Akhtar, who celebrates his birthday on Saturday. [IE]

I can understand the need to come up with fresh comparisons but what is the need to compare Javed Akhtar (an avowed agnostic/atheist and a Bollywood icon) to Goddess Saraswati? Such stupid comparisons doesn’t help anyone and give credence to the claim that Hindu religious beliefs are fair game whereas you can’t criticize other religions.

The lack of knowledge of the writer is apparent from the fact that s/he claims that Goddess Sarwaswati is the Goddess of Education when actually she is the Goddess of Knowlege. Subtle difference but very important. Also Javed Akhtar might be a great lyricist but no way he is the Lord of Poetry. He is an average poet at best.

I am all for freedom of expression but I am also against stupidity and this article falls into the latter category.

Aman Rehman, the eight year old son of a scooter mechanic from Dehradun, is hoping to get into the Guinness Book of World Records. Aman makes animation films and so far has made over a thousand. He is now teaching those skills to adults and is hoping to get listed under the “Young Achiever” category of Guinness Book.

Khushboo Mirza is another young achiever who was associated with the successful Chandrayan-1 project for ISRO. When asked if her being a Muslim girl is an hindrance, she replied:

“I am just like any other Muslim girl who follows Islam and its traditions, fasts in the month of Ramzan and celebrate Eid. My religion never came in the way of my profession. I am very proud that I am an Indian Muslim.”

Kudos to young Aman and Khushboo and may their tribe increase!

It is a widely held misconception that Indian Muslim prefer sending their children to madrasas. This falsehood is usually used to promote another insinuation that madrasas are breeding ground of terrorism. In reality only about 4% of Indian Muslim students go to madrasas. Most madrasas are residential and a majority of students are from the poorest of the poor families that can’t afford to bear expenses of their wards on their own. Most of these madrasas are community supported and very few actually get any foreign contributions.

Now as far as their actual purpose is concerned Indians still are observant to one particular religion or the other. And they would need some religious figure to preside over ceremonies from birth to marriage to death. Even though in Islam clergy has not been especially ordained to preside over such events it just is convenient. Many of them go on to become imams of mosques and lead prayers while getting a pittance as a salary. However they have a moral authority which is respected by most of their congregation.

Instead of ignoring them as uneducated medieval relics we need to engage these people because by engaging them we will have the ears of the entire Indian Muslim community. Javed Akhtars and Shahrukh Khans definitely have a role to play but the role of these imams is no less important.

As far as the charge of breeding terrorism is concerned, that is another post but I am yet to Terrorism 101 listed in madrasa curriculum in India.