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		<title>Tuesday links:  broken equity culture</title>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Feb 2010 17:32:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>abnormalreturns</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[$GS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BRKB]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[TIP]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USO]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://classic.abnormalreturns.com/?p=6650</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Rydex market timers are getting bearish.  (The Technical Take)
The stock market is as oversold as it was back in March 2009.  (Bespoke)
What is mutual fund cash telling us about the market?  (Marketwatch)
Is America&#8217;s &#8220;broken equity culture&#8221; ultimately going to lead to lower returns down the road?  (Barron&#8217;s)
Distressed debt and arbitrage strategies had positive returns in [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>Rydex market timers</strong> are getting bearish.  (<a title="The Technical Take" href="http://thetechnicaltakedotcom.blogspot.com/2010/02/rydex-market-timers-becoming-more.html" target="_self"><em>The Technical Take</em></a>)</p>
<p>The stock market is as <strong>oversold</strong> as it was back in March 2009.  (<a title="Bespoke" href="http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/2/8/percentage-of-oversold-stocks-at-highest-level-since-march-2.html" target="_self"><em>Bespoke</em></a>)</p>
<p>What is <strong>mutual fund cash</strong> telling us about the market?  (<a title="Marketwatch.com" href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-mutual-fund-cash-level-is-telling-us-now-2010-02-09" target="_self"><em>Marketwatch</em></a>)</p>
<p>Is America&#8217;s &#8220;<strong>broken equity culture</strong>&#8221; ultimately going to lead to lower returns down the road?  (<a title="Barrons.com" href="http://online.barrons.com/article/SB126540091219841427.html" target="_self"><em>Barron&#8217;s</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Distressed debt</strong> and arbitrage strategies had positive returns in January.  (<a title="FINalternatives.com" href="http://www.finalternatives.com/node/11325" target="_self"><em>FINalternatives</em></a>)</p>
<p>Marking the top in the <strong>high yield bond market</strong>.  (<a title="Distressed Debt Investing" href="http://www.distressed-debt-investing.com/2010/02/was-that-top-in-high-yield-market.html" target="_self"><em>Distressed Debt Investing</em></a>)</p>
<p>Are investors piling into the <strong>BlackRock iShares TIPS ETF (<a title="StockTwits.com" href="http://www.stocktwits.com/t/TIP" target="_self">TIP</a>)</strong> going to be disappointed?  (<a title="IndexUniverse.com" href="http://www.indexuniverse.com/blog/7219-etfs-to-worry-about.html" target="_self"><em>IndexUniverse</em></a>, <a title="IndexUniverse.com" href="http://www.indexuniverse.com/blog/7225-duration-the-looming-scandal.html" target="_self"><em>ibid</em></a>)</p>
<p>Does <strong>Pimco</strong> have a better way of weighting a global bond index?  (<a title="Morningstar.com" href="http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=325242" target="_self"><em>Morningstar</em></a>)</p>
<p>Investors are pulling back from the <strong>emerging markets</strong>.  (<a title="The Money Game" href="http://www.businessinsider.com/citi-investors-fleeing-emerging-markets-on-european-crisis-concerns" target="_self"><em>The Money Game</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Five themes</strong> that play off of the divergence between industrialized and emerging economies.  (<a title="market folly" href="http://www.marketfolly.com/2010/02/hedge-fund-woodbine-capitals-five.html" target="_self"><em>market folly</em></a>)</p>
<p>Exotic ETFs do not have the <strong>tax efficiency</strong> of plain vanilla index ETFs.  (<a title="DailyFinance.com" href="http://www.dailyfinance.com/story/investing/exotic-etfs-may-hide-an-unpleasant-tax-surprise/19350402/" target="_self"><em>DailyFinance</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Institutional money managers trade more</strong> than they tell clients they will.  (<a title="WSJ.com" href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704820904575055282803395068.html" target="_self"><em>WSJ</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Berkshire Hathaway (<a title="StockTwits.com" href="http://www.stocktwits.com/t/BRKB" target="_self">BRKB</a>)</strong> is entering the S&amp;P 500 on Friday.  What to expect?  (<a title="Barrons.com" href="http://online.barrons.com/article/SB126566250169742899.html?mod=googlenews_barrons" target="_self"><em>Barron&#8217;s</em></a>)</p>
<p>Don&#8217;t overlook the benefits of <strong>portfolio rebalancing</strong>.  (<a title="Capital Spectator" href="http://www.capitalspectator.com/archives/2010/02/there_are_count.html" target="_self"><em>Capital Spectator</em></a>)</p>
<p>In defense of the management of the <strong>United States Oil Fund (<a title="StockTwits.com" href="http://www.stocktwits.com/t/USO" target="_self">USO</a>)</strong>.  (<a title="FT Alphaville" href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/02/09/144896/the-uso-says-it-is-innocent/" target="_self"><em>FT Alphaville</em></a>)</p>
<p>Apparently the coast is clear for <strong>private equity dividends</strong> again.  (<a title="NYTimes.com" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/09/business/09sorkin.html?" target="_self"><em>NYTimes</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Goldman Sachs (<a title="StockTwits.com" href="http://www.stocktwits.com/t/GS" target="_self">GS</a>)</strong> responds to its critics, blog-style.  (<a title="Huffington Post" href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lucas-van-praag/goldmans-response-to-the_b_454296.html" target="_self"><em>Huffington Post</em></a>, <a title="Reuters.com" href="http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2010/02/09/goldman-sachs-joins-the-blogosphere/" target="_self"><em>Felix Salmon</em></a>, <a title="FT.com" href="http://blogs.ft.com/gapperblog/2010/02/the-goldman-sachs-narrative/" target="_self"><em>Gapper Blog</em></a>, <a title="Deal Journal" href="http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2010/02/09/goldman-v-ny-times-doth-goldman-protest-too-much/" target="_self"><em>Deal Journal</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>The US dollar is going down,</strong> on an inflation-adjusted basis, whether Bloomberg says it is or not.  (<a title="Finance Trends Matter" href="http://financetrends.blogspot.com/2010/02/bloomberg-weak-dollar-inflation.html" target="_self"><em>Finance Trends Matter</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Howard Simons</strong>, &#8220;Just because the value of paper money is declining doesn&#8217;t mean the value of a static asset has to be increasing at an equal and opposite rate.&#8221;  (<a title="Minyanville.com" href="Just because the value of paper money is declining doesn't mean the value of a static asset has to be increasing at an equal and opposite rate." target="_self"><em>Minyanville</em></a>)</p>
<p>Is the Fed making it too easy to <strong>borrow short and lend long</strong>?  (<a title="The Money Game" href="http://www.businessinsider.com/want-to-create-jobs-then-its-time-for-the-fed-to-raise-interest-rates-2010-2" target="_self"><em>The Money Game</em></a>)</p>
<p>The good news coming from the <strong>temporary job market</strong>.  (<a title="Atlantic Business" href="http://business.theatlantic.com/2010/02/why_to_celebrate_more_temp_jobs.php" target="_self"><em>Atlantic Business</em></a>)</p>
<p>How <strong>the Federal Reserve</strong> plans to mop up the excess liquidity sloshing around the financial system.  (<a title="WashingtonPost.com" href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/02/08/AR2010020804042.html" target="_self"><em>WashingtonPost</em></a> also <a title="Fox Business" href="http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/markets/feds-bullard-fed-rates-low/" target="_self"><em>Fox Business</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Elizabeth Warren</strong> takes Wall Street to task for throwing away their customer&#8217;s trust.  (<a title="WSJ.com" href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703630404575053514188773400.html" target="_self"><em>WSJ</em></a> also <a title="Baseline Scenario" href="http://baselinescenario.com/2010/02/08/elizabeth-warren-calls-out-wall-street/" target="_self"><em>Baseline Scenario</em></a>)</p>
<p>Are the<strong> wise old men</strong> back in charge of fiscal policy?  (<a title="Guardian.co.uk" href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/feb/07/warren-buffet-george-soros-paul-volker-us-recession" target="_self"><em>Guardian</em></a>)</p>
<p>Given its relative size why are we so worried about <strong>Greece</strong>?  (<a title="Economist.com" href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2010/02/european_debt_worries" target="_self"><em>Free exchange</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Venture capital</strong> went from &#8220;cottage industry&#8221; to &#8220;asset class.&#8221;  What now?  (<a title="Institutional Investor" href="http://www.iimagazine.com/today/Articles/2388474/Back-to-the-Future-for-Venture-Capital.html" target="_self"><em>Institutional Investor</em></a>)</p>
<p>On the relationship between <strong>fear and loss aversion</strong>.  (<a title="Reuters.com" href="http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0823962020100208" target="_self"><em>Reuters</em></a> also <a title="Scientific American" href="http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=amygdala-loss-aversion" target="_self"><em>Scientific American</em></a>, <a title="TraderFeed" href="http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2010/02/trading-and-brain-trauma-and-amygdala.html" target="_self"><em>TraderFeed</em></a>)</p>
<p>How is <strong>neuroeconomics </strong>changing economics?  (<a title="The Psy-Fi Blog" href="http://www.psyfitec.com/2010/02/neuroeconomics-revolution.html" target="_self"><em>The Psy-Fi Blog</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Morningstar (<a title="StockTwits.com" href="http://www.stocktwits.com/t/MORN" target="_self">MORN</a>)</strong> acquires the excellent <strong>footnoted.org blog</strong>.  (<a title="footnoted.org" href="http://www.footnoted.org/urge-to-merge/morningstar-acquires-footnoted/" target="_self"><em>footnoted</em></a>)</p>
<p>What induces people to<strong> e-mail a New York Times story</strong>?  (<a title="NYTimes.com" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/09/science/09tier.html" target="_self"><em>NYTimes</em></a>)</p>
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		<item>
		<title>Monday links:  global margin call</title>
		<link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/abnormalreturns/~3/JCOoQnMjQtE/</link>
		<comments>http://classic.abnormalreturns.com/monday-links-global-margin-call/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 08 Feb 2010 17:30:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>abnormalreturns</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CIT]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://classic.abnormalreturns.com/?p=6636</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&#8220;(A)ny timer of the U.S. stock market who did not beat the market during 2000-2009 has some explaining to do.&#8221;  (CXO Advisory Group)
&#8220;It may be hard to believe, but 35% of the S&#38;P 500&#8217;s gains since the start of 2009 have now been erased over a span of less than 14 trading days.&#8221;  (Bespoke)
Is the secular bull [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;(<strong>A)ny timer of the U.S. stock market</strong> who did not beat the market during 2000-2009 has some explaining to do.&#8221;  (<a title="CXOAG" href="http://www.cxoadvisory.com/blog/internal/blog2-08-10/" target="_self"><em>CXO Advisory Group</em></a>)</p>
<p>&#8220;It may be hard to believe, but <strong>35% of the S&amp;P 500&#8217;s gains since the start of 2009</strong> have now been erased over a span of less than 14 trading days.&#8221;  (<a title="Bespoke" href="http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/2/8/up-in-smoke-one-third-of-the-gains-since-the-start-of-2009.html" target="_self"><em>Bespoke</em></a>)</p>
<p>Is the <strong>secular bull market in bonds</strong> coming to an end?  (<a title="Big Picture" href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/02/end-of-the-bond-secular-bull-market/" target="_self"><em>Big Picture</em></a>)</p>
<p>Why haven&#8217;t <strong>higher sovereign CDS rates</strong> been reflected in bond yields?  (<a title="FT Alphaville" href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/02/08/143806/when-g7-bond-yields-tell-you-nothing/" target="_self"><em>FT Alphaville</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>PIMCO</strong> favors emerging market (and German) bonds.  (<a title="WSJ.com" href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703630404575052602314858646.html" target="_self"><em>WSJ</em></a>)</p>
<p>Peaks in <strong>leading economic indicators</strong> are not great for market returns.  (<a title="The Money Game" href="http://www.businessinsider.com/morgan-stanley-heres-two-economic-indicators-flashing-a-huge-sell-signal-2010-2" target="_self"><em>The Money Game</em></a> also <a title="FT Alphaville" href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/02/08/143856/some-surprisingly-disappointing-global-metrics/" target="_self"><em>FT Alphaville</em></a>)</p>
<p>Why is <strong>lumber</strong> continuing to power higher?  (<a title="The Pragmatic Capitalist" href="http://pragcap.com/lumber-futures-surge-before-housings-last-gasp" target="_self"><em>The Pragmatic Capitalist</em></a>)</p>
<p>Listening <strong>Nouriel Roubini</strong> would have been a mistake last year.  (<a title="Telegraph.co.uk" href="http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jeremywarner/100003332/shock-nouriel-roubini-gets-it-wrong/" target="_self"><em>Telegraph UK</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>The volatility of the VIX</strong> has surged.   (<a title="Daily Options Report" href="http://dailyoptionsreport.com/blog/post/back-to-the-vix-futures1/" target="_self"><em>Daily Options Report</em></a> also <a title="WSJ.com" href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704880804575050392251718552.html" target="_self"><em>WSJ</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>ETFs </strong>have joined the rest of the mutual fund complex in a battle of branding.  (<a title="New Rules of Investing" href="http://newrulesofinvesting.com/2010/02/07/overindexing-and-the-power-of-financial-brands/" target="_self"><em>New Rules of Investing</em></a>)</p>
<p>Some <strong>Bogleheads</strong> are anxious that Vanguard is getting into alternative investments.  (<a title="FT.com" href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7711f854-1287-11df-a611-00144feab49a.html" target="_self"><em>FT</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Roger Nusbaum</strong>, &#8220;Investment products aren&#8217;t greed-causing or speculative in and of themselves. They may create the means with which to express those behaviors.&#8221;  (<a title="TheStreet.com" href="http://www.thestreet.com/story/10675987/3/theres-no-such-thing-as-an-etf-bubble.html" target="_self"><em>TheStreet</em></a>)</p>
<p>&#8220;For all the concern over the $1.6 trillion U.S. budget deficit and record debt load, <strong>the dollar is as valuable now as 35 years ago</strong>.&#8221;  (<a title="Bloomberg.com" href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&amp;sid=aVbhDaStbA1Q" target="_self"><em>Bloomberg</em></a>)</p>
<p>Where will <strong>the Euro</strong> bottom?  (<a title="VIX and More" href="http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2010/02/chart-of-week-where-and-when-will-euro.html" target="_self"><em>VIX and More</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Simon Johnson</strong>, &#8220;The euro depreciates, the dollar strengthens, and our path to recovery starts to run more uphill.&#8221;  (<a title="Baseline Scenario" href="http://baselinescenario.com/2010/02/07/euro-falling-us-recovery-under-threat/" target="_self"><em>Baseline Scenario</em></a>)</p>
<p>Is Greece the first step in a &#8220;<strong>global margin call</strong>&#8220;?  (<a title="naked capitalism" href="http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/02/is-greek-crisis-a-precursor-to-a-global-margin-call.html" target="_self"><em>naked capitalism</em></a>)</p>
<p>John Thain takes over <strong>CIT Group (<a title="StockTwits.com" href="http://www.stocktwits.com/t/CIT" target="_self">CIT</a>)</strong>.  (<a title="NYTimes.com" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/08/business/08thain.html" target="_self"><em>NYTimes</em></a>, <a title="naked capitalism" href="http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/02/how-the-mighty-are-fallen-thain-to-head-cit.html" target="_self"><em>naked capitalism</em></a>, <a title="FT Alphaville" href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/02/08/143706/more-bonus-neurosis-thain-and-how-times-have-changed/" target="_self"><em>FT Alphaville</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Felix Salmon</strong>, &#8220;It’s crucial, in financial markets, that investors walk into risky asset classes with their eyes open, rather than kidding themselves that they can simply hedge those risks away by buying a fancy financial product from Citigroup.&#8221;  (<a title="Reuters.com" href="http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2010/02/08/citi-reinvents-end-of-the-world-insurance/" target="_self"><em>Reuters</em></a> also <a title="Risk.net" href="http://www.risk.net/risk-magazine/news/1590861/citi-plans-crisis-derivatives" target="_self"><em>Risk</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Bryan Caplan</strong>, &#8220;None of this means that mood is the <em>whole</em> story.   Mood, market conditions, and policy all interact.&#8221;  (<a title="EconLog" href="http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2010/02/mood_and_macro.html" target="_self"><em>EconLog</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Deflation</strong> is back on the table.  (<a title="Econbrowser" href="http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2010/02/reactions_to_la.html" target="_self"><em>Econbrowser</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Males aged 25-54</strong> are increasingly not employed.  (<a title="Brad DeLong" href="http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2010/02/something-is-going-wrong.html" target="_self"><em>Brad DeLong</em></a>)</p>
<p>Is a <strong>value-added tax</strong> or VAT the inevitable fix to the budget deficit?  (<a title="CNNMoney.com" href="http://money.cnn.com/2010/02/05/news/economy/vat_deficit.fortune/index.htm" target="_self"><em>CNNMoney</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Economic populism</strong> is a function of the poor economy.  (<a title="NewYorker.com" href="http://www.newyorker.com/talk/financial/2010/02/15/100215ta_talk_surowiecki" target="_self"><em>New Yorker</em></a>)</p>
<p>Is <strong>Canada</strong> facing its own housing bubble?  (<a title="WSJ.com" href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703808904575025100730017666.html" target="_self"><em>WSJ</em></a>)</p>
<p>&#8220;I take issue with <strong>Krugman&#8217;s &#8220;partisanization&#8221; of economics</strong> &#8211; if I could coin a new word&#8221;  (<a title="Kid Dynamite" href="http://fridayinvegas.blogspot.com/2010/02/partisan-economics.html" target="_self"><em>Kid Dynamite</em></a>)</p>
<p>&#8220;Despite all my jurisprudential research, I have been unable to locate a statutory basis for the right to <strong>cheap insurance</strong>.&#8221;  (<a title="finem respice" href="http://www.finemrespice.com/node/82" target="_self"><em>finem respice</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>How winning streaks end</strong>:  &#8220;Winners become sinners when confidence turns into complacency and arrogance.&#8221;  (<a title="HBR.org" href="http://blogs.hbr.org/kanter/2010/02/why-winning-streaks-end.html" target="_self"><em>HBR</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Jeff Jarvis</strong>, &#8220;If you are selling a scarcity — an inventory — of any nonphysical goods today, stop, turn around, and start selling value — outcomes — instead. Or you’re screwed.&#8221;  (<a title="Buzz Machine" href="http://www.buzzmachine.com/2010/02/08/stop-selling-scarcity-2/" target="_self"><em>Buzz Machine</em></a>)</p>
<p>Ten reasons <strong>Sherlock Holmes is the ideal VC</strong>.  (<a title="peHUB.com" href="http://www.pehub.com/63025/10-reasons-sherlock-holmes-is-the-ideal-vc/" target="_self"><em>peHUB</em></a>)</p>
<p>Check out who made this &#8220;<strong>all star team of online finance</strong>.&#8221;  (<a title="New Rules of Investing" href="http://newrulesofinvesting.com/2010/02/08/superbowl-team-online-finances-best/" target="_self"><em>New Rules of Investing</em></a>)</p>
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		<title>Sunday links:  symbiotic investments</title>
		<link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/abnormalreturns/~3/cgYVvGCWr-c/</link>
		<comments>http://classic.abnormalreturns.com/sunday-links-symbiotic-investments/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 07 Feb 2010 13:45:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>abnormalreturns</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://classic.abnormalreturns.com/?p=6619</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Joshua Brown, &#8220;China and Brazil are quite possibly the most symbiotic investment story going right now.&#8221;  (The Reformed Broker)
More oversold readings.  (Bespoke)
Investment sentiment at week-end.  (Trader&#8217;s Narrative, The Technical Take)
Doug Kass thinks it might be time to start getting greedy again.  (TheStreet)
Nobody&#8217;s perfect. Paulson&#8217;s gold-focused hedge fund reportedly lost 14% in January.  (BusinessWeek also Clusterstock)
David [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>Joshua Brown</strong>, &#8220;China and Brazil are quite possibly the most symbiotic investment story going right now.&#8221;  (<a title="The Reformed Broker" href="http://stocktwits.net/thereformedbroker/2010/02/06/you-cant-like-brazil-if-you-dont-like-china/" target="_self"><em>The Reformed Broker</em></a>)</p>
<p>More <strong>oversold readings</strong>.  (<a title="Bespoke" href="http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/2/5/sp-500-now-3-standard-deviations-below-50-dma.html" target="_self"><em>Bespoke</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Investment sentiment</strong> at week-end.  (<a title="Trader's Narrative" href="http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-february-5th-2010-3565.html" target="_self"><em>Trader&#8217;s Narrative</em></a>, <a title="The Technical Take" href="http://thetechnicaltakedotcom.blogspot.com/2010/02/investor-sentiment-are-we-there-yet.html" target="_self"><em>The Technical Take</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Doug Kass</strong> thinks it might be time to start getting greedy again.  (<a title="TheStreet.com" href="http://www.thestreet.com/story/10675647/1/kass-greed-might-get-good-again.html" target="_self"><em>TheStreet</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Nobody&#8217;s perfect</strong>. Paulson&#8217;s gold-focused hedge fund reportedly lost 14% in January.  (<a title="BusinessWeek.com" href="http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-02-05/john-paulson-gold-fund-said-to-tumble-14-in-its-first-month.html" target="_self"><em>BusinessWeek</em></a> also <a title="Clusterstock" href="http://www.businessinsider.com/paulsons-gold-fund-isnt-doing-well-but-it-took-a-year-before-his-cds-strategy-paid-off-2010-2" target="_self"><em>Clusterstock</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>David Merkel</strong>, &#8220;(Y)ou can’t take illiquid assets and make them liquid.&#8221;  (<a title="Aleph Blog" href="http://alephblog.com/2010/02/06/what-is-liquidity-iv/" target="_self"><em>Aleph Blog</em></a>)</p>
<p>More iShares <strong>country ETFs</strong> are coming.  (<a title="ETF Trends" href="http://www.etftrends.com/2010/02/ishares-readies-expand-single-country-etf-offerings.html" target="_self"><em>ETF Trends</em></a>)</p>
<p>Is this the beginning of a wave of fund conversions into <strong>actively managed ETFs</strong>?  (<a title="WSJ.com" href="http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100205-712798.html" target="_self"><em>WSJ</em></a>)</p>
<p>Where <strong>Burton Malkiel</strong> puts his own money.  (<a title="DealBook" href="http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02/05/dowdy-index-funds-win-a-notable-endorsement/" target="_self"><em>DealBook</em></a> also <a title="Random Roger" href="http://randomroger.blogspot.com/2010/02/sunday-morning-coffee.html" target="_self"><em>Random Roger</em></a>)</p>
<p>Why your <strong>time frame matters</strong>.  (<a title="A Dash of Insight" href="http://oldprof.typepad.com/a_dash_of_insight/2010/02/weighing-the-week-ahead-one-persons-risk-is-anothers-opportunity.html" target="_self"><em>A Dash of Insight</em></a>)</p>
<p>Fund companies now realize their <strong>target date funds</strong> were a tad too aggressive.  (<a title="WSJ.com" href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704094304575029351645010246.html" target="_self"><em>WSJ</em></a>)</p>
<p>How can faith be restored in <strong>Wall Street</strong>?  (<a title="WSJ.com" href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704878904575031442147996562.html" target="_self"><em>WSJ</em></a>)</p>
<p>An awesome idea.  <strong>Pay bankers with subordinated debt</strong>.  (<a title="Clusterstock" href="http://www.businessinsider.com/heres-an-awesome-idea-pay-bankers-with-subordinated-debt-2010-2" target="_self"><em>Clusterstock</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein</strong> only earns a $9 million bonus in 2009.  (<a title="FT.com" href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/49aa5448-12a4-11df-9f5f-00144feab49a.html" target="_self"><em>FT</em></a>, <a title="Deal Journal" href="http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2010/02/05/blankfeins-9-million-bonus-is-pr-genius/" target="_self"><em>Deal Journal</em></a>, <a title="Reuters.com" href="http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2010/02/06/blankfeins-seven-figure-bonus/" target="_self"><em>Felix Salmon</em></a>)</p>
<p>&#8220;It’s a hell of a lot harder to build a new set of <strong>railway tracks</strong> than it is to set up a new website.&#8221;  (<a title="The Psy-Fi Blog" href="http://www.psyfitec.com/2010/02/from-railroad-to-internet-and-back.html" target="_self"><em>Psy-Fi Blog</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Short-selling bans</strong>, at best, had a neutral effect on stock prices.  (<a title="voxEU.com" href="http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/4567" target="_self"><em>voxEU</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Five ways to improve your trading</strong> including;  &#8220;Improving risk-adjusted returns is as important for a long-term career as improving absolute returns.&#8221;  (<a title="TraderFeed" href="http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2010/02/five-ideas-for-improving-your-trading.html" target="_self"><em>TraderFeed</em></a>)</p>
<p>The <strong>US dollar </strong>is still king, for now.  (<a title="Real Time Economics" href="http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/02/06/despite-carping-dollar-is-still-king/" target="_self"><em>Real Time Economics</em></a>)</p>
<p>The three (not so great) ways out of <strong>the PIIGS problem</strong>.  (<a title="Reuters.com" href="http://blogs.reuters.com/rolfe-winkler/2010/02/06/spiking-greek-cds-2/" target="_self"><em>Rolfe Winkler</em></a> also <a title="The Money Game" href="http://www.businessinsider.com/europes-sovereign-debt-disaster-is-great-news-for-americas-debt-binge-2010-2" target="_self"><em>The Money Game</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Can the US stand by</strong> while Europe deals with its own fiscal problems?  (<a title="Baseline Scenario" href="http://baselinescenario.com/2010/02/06/is-tim-geithner-paying-attention-to-the-global-economy/" target="_self"><em>Baseline Scenario</em></a>, <a title="Baseline Scenario" href="http://baselinescenario.com/2010/02/07/europe-risks-another-global-depression/" target="_self"><em>ibid</em></a>)</p>
<p>Can there be <strong>investment banks</strong> without conflicts of interest?  (<a title="HBR.org" href="http://blogs.hbr.org/fox/2010/02/can-there-be-investment-banks.html" target="_self"><em>Justin Fox</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Oh, the irony</strong>.  (<a title="DJ Market Talk" href="http://markettalk.newswires-americas.com/?p=8576" target="_self"><em>DJ Market Talk</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Floyd Norris</strong>, &#8220;A global recovery in manufacturing appears to be accelerating.&#8221;  (<a title="NYTimes.com" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/06/business/economy/06charts.html" target="_self"><em>NYTimes</em></a>)</p>
<p>An unprecedented contraction in <strong>consumer credit </strong>continues apace.  (<a title="Calculated Risk" href="http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/02/consumer-credit-declines-for-record.html" target="_self"><em>Calculated Risk</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>David Altig</strong>, &#8220;What are we to make of the productivity gains in the United States relative to other countries?&#8221;  (<a title="macroblog" href="http://macroblog.typepad.com/macroblog/2010/02/good-news-in-bad-employment-numbers.html" target="_self"><em>macroblog</em></a>)</p>
<p>Five myths of <strong>job creation</strong>.  (<a title="WashingtonPost.com" href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/02/05/AR2010020501445.html" target="_self"><em>WashingtonPost</em></a>)</p>
<p>What David Wessel (and Daniel Gross) learned from <strong>Hank Paulson&#8217;s book</strong>.  (<a title="Real Time Economics" href="http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/02/06/what-i-learned-from-hank-paulsons-book/" target="_self"><em>Real Time Economics</em></a> also <a title="WashingtonPost.com" href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/02/05/AR2010020503960.html" target="_self"><em>Washington Post</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Gregor Macdonald</strong>, &#8220;21st century energy prices overlaid on a 20th century economy? That’s no fun at all.&#8221;  (<a title="Gregor.us" href="http://gregor.us/debt/seven-states-of-energy-debt/" target="_self"><em>Gregor</em></a>)</p>
<p>The returns to writing a book, aka <strong>Bookonomics</strong>, are pretty dismal.  (<a title="Big Picture" href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/02/bookonomics/" target="_self"><em>Big Picture</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>The economics of supermarkets</strong> prior to a blizzard.  (<a title="EconLog" href="http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2010/02/a_puzzle_from_t.html" target="_self"><em>EconLog</em></a>, <a title="Marginal Revolution" href="http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2010/02/the-economics-of-supermarkets-in-snow-storms.html" target="_self"><em>Marginal Revolution</em></a>)</p>
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		<item>
		<title>Friday links:  shadow banking</title>
		<link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/abnormalreturns/~3/e4zuf0_Tl-o/</link>
		<comments>http://classic.abnormalreturns.com/friday-links-shadow-banking/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 05 Feb 2010 17:49:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>abnormalreturns</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[$BRK-A]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[$GS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[$MSFT]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BLK]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[KFT]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://classic.abnormalreturns.com/?p=6598</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The percentage of stocks trading above their respective moving averages are getting close to solidly oversold levels.  (Trader Mike, Bespoke also Quantifiable Edges)
Bearish sentiment is on the rise.  (The Pragmatic Capitalist)
Pullback or new bear market?  (VIX and More)
Adam Warner, &#8220;Well, you don&#8217;t need a chart to tell you volatility is percolating.&#8221;  (Daily Options Report, ibid)
Post [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The percentage of stocks trading above their respective moving averages are getting close to solidly <strong>oversold levels</strong>.  (<a title="Trader Mike" href="http://tradermike.net/2010/02/february_4_2010_stock_market_recap" target="_self"><em>Trader Mike</em></a>, <a title="Bespoke" href="http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/2/4/percentage-of-stocks-above-50-day-moving-averages.html" target="_self"><em>Bespoke</em></a> also <a title="Quantifiable Edges" href="http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/2010/02/extremely-negative-breadth-days-in-long.html" target="_self"><em>Quantifiable Edges</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Bearish sentiment</strong> is on the rise.  (<a title="The Pragmatic Capitalist" href="http://pragcap.com/bearish-sentiment-spikes-to-a-3-month-high" target="_self"><em>The Pragmatic Capitalist</em></a>)</p>
<p>Pullback or <strong>new bear market</strong>?  (<a title="VIX and More" href="http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2010/02/largest-pullback-since-march-2009-rally.html" target="_self"><em>VIX and More</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Adam Warner</strong>, &#8220;Well, you don&#8217;t need a chart to tell you volatility is percolating.&#8221;  (<a title="Daily Options Report" href="http://dailyoptionsreport.com/blog/post/now-what1/" target="_self"><em>Daily Options Report</em></a>, <a title="Daily Options Report" href="http://dailyoptionsreport.com/blog/post/beyond-the-vix1/" target="_self"><em>ibid</em></a>)</p>
<p>Post BGI, <strong>Blackrock (<a title="StockTwits.com" href="http://www.stocktwits.com/t/BLK" target="_self">BLK</a>)</strong> is now the largest money manager in the world.  (<a title="Morningstar.com" href="http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=325160" target="_self"><em>Morningstar</em></a>)</p>
<p>Some interesting discussion about how <strong>multi-strategy</strong> was the best hedge fund structure to take advantage of alpha opportunities.  (<a title="market folly" href="http://www.marketfolly.com/2010/02/hedge-fund-panel-is-there-alpha-in.html" target="_self"><em>market folly</em></a>)</p>
<p>Which <strong>Nassim Taleb</strong> &#8220;investment advice&#8221; should we listen to?  (<a title="Reuters.com" href="http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2010/02/04/taleb-vs-treasuries/" target="_self"><em>Felix Salmon</em></a>)</p>
<p>Just what <strong>the MAVINS</strong> all about? (<a title="Wall St. Cheat Sheet" href="http://wallstcheatsheet.com/knowledge/interview-knowledge/joe-weisenthal-explains-the-mavins-countries-as-investments/?p=6410/" target="_self"><em>Wall St. Cheat Sheet</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Ten investment trends</strong> including:  &#8220;Diversification will remain key.&#8221;  (<a title="Capital Spectator" href="http://www.capitalspectator.com/archives/2010/02/what_are_the_to.html" target="_self"><em>Capital Spectator</em></a>)</p>
<p>The Burlington Northern acquisition costs <strong>Berkshire Hathaway (<a title="StockTwits.com" href="http://www.stocktwits.com/t/BRK-A" target="_self">BRK-A</a>)</strong> its AAA rating. (<a title="24/7 Wall St." href="http://247wallst.com/2010/02/04/the-death-of-aaa-ratings-sp-and-berkshire-hathaway-brk-a-brk-b-bni/" target="_self"><em>24/7 Wall St.</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Jeff Matthews</strong> on how the Burlington Northern deal will transform <strong>Berkshire Hathaway (<a title="StockTwits.com" href="http://www.stocktwits.com/t/BRK-A" target="_self">BRK-A</a>)</strong>.  (<a title="tech|ticker" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/burlington-deal-%22transformative%22-for-buffett%27s-berkshire-but-is-it-good-418780.html" target="_self"><em>Tech Ticker</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Kraft (<a title="StockTwits.com" href="http://www.stocktwits.com/t/KFT" target="_self">KFT</a>)</strong> had no problem raising funds via debt to close the Cadbury acquisition.  (<a title="NYTimes.com" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/05/business/05views.html" target="_self"><em>Breakingviews</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Commission-free trading of ETFs</strong> IS a great deal for smaller investors.  (<a title="IndexUniverse.com" href="http://www.indexuniverse.com/blog/7212-yeah-dave-who-cares-about-the-little-guy.html" target="_self"><em>IndexUniverse</em></a>)</p>
<p>Can <strong>Microsoft (<a title="StockTwits.com" href="http://www.stocktwits.com/t/MSFT" target="_self">MSFT</a>)</strong> become a &#8220;very different company&#8221;?  (<a title="GigaOm.com" href="http://gigaom.com/2010/02/04/3-surprise-scenarios-for-microsofts-future/" target="_self"><em>GigaOm</em></a>)</p>
<p>Does <strong>GlaxoSmithKline (<a title="StockTwits.com" href="http://www.stocktwits.com/t/GSK" target="_self">GSK</a>)</strong> have the right formula for improving research productivity?  (<a title="FT.com" href="http://blogs.ft.com/gapperblog/2010/02/glaxo-shows-the-way-in-making-research-pay" target="_self"><em>Gapper Blog</em></a>)</p>
<p>A new paper argues that <strong>high frequency traders</strong> need to have controls in place to avoid high-speed errors.  (<a title="Real Time Economics" href="http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/02/04/chicago-fed-weighs-making-high-speed-trading-safer/" target="_self"><em>Real Time Economics</em></a>)</p>
<p>Neat graphics on <strong>the shadow banking system</strong> and what the Volcker Rule might cover.  (<a title="Rortybomb" href="http://rortybomb.wordpress.com/2010/02/05/a-roadmap-of-the-shadow-banks-plus-targeting-the-volcker-rule/" target="_self"><em>Rortybomb</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Goldman Sachs (<a title="StockTwits.com" href="http://www.stocktwits.com/t/GS" target="_self">GS</a>) </strong>continues to claim it did not need government assistance.  (<a title="Atlantic Business" href="http://business.theatlantic.com/2010/02/did_goldman_need_a_bailout.php" target="_self"><em>Atlantic Business</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Tim Duy</strong>, &#8220;In this environment, I don&#8217;t see how the Fed is interested in substantially tightening policy &#8211; but I can see how some policymakers could perceive that their hand was forced if they see a string of upside surprises in growth indicators..&#8221;  (<a title="Economist's View" href="http://economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/2010/02/devils-advocate.html" target="_self"><em>Economist&#8217;s View</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Anal_yst</strong>, &#8220;We must accept the fact that the crisis wasn&#8217;t caused just by bad actors on Wall Street, but by Main Street, as well.&#8221;  (<a title="Atlantic Business" href="http://business.theatlantic.com/2010/02/since_the_beginning_of_the.php" target="_self"><em>Atlantic Business</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Carmen Reinhart</strong>, &#8220;..historically, following a wave of financial crises especially in financial centers, you get a wave of defaults. <strong>You go from financial crises to sovereign debt crises.</strong> I think we’re in for a period where that kind of scenario is very likely.&#8221;  (<a title="Real Time Economics" href="http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/02/05/qa-carmen-reinhart-on-greece-us-debt-and-other-scary-scenarios/" target="_self"><em>Real Time Economics</em></a>)</p>
<p>No wonder the <strong>US CDS prices </strong>have risen so much.  (<a title="Fund My Mutual Fund" href="http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/02/sovereign-risk-chart-where-would-us-fit.html" target="_self"><em>Fund My Mutual Fund</em></a>, <a title="Bespoke" href="http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/2/5/sovereign-debt-default-risk.html" target="_self"><em>Bespoke</em></a>)</p>
<p>Drop in unemployment rate aside, this has been <strong>the worst post-War employment recession</strong>.  (<a title="Calculated Risk" href="http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/02/employment-report-20k-jobs-lost-97.html" target="_self"><em>Calculated Risk</em></a> also <a title="The Reformed Broker" href="http://thereformedbroker.com/2010/02/05/a-tripling-of-those-unemployed-for-half-a-year-or-more/" target="_self"><em>The Reformed Broker</em></a>, <a title="The Pragmatic Capitalist" href="http://pragcap.com/u-s-economy-loses-20k-jobs-unemployment-rate-9-7" target="_self"><em>The Pragmatic Capitalist</em></a>, <a title="EconomPic Data" href="http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2010/02/unemployment-drops-to-97.html" target="_self"><em>EconomPic Data</em></a>, <a title="Economix" href="http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02/05/finding-hope-in-the-jobless-numbers/" target="_self"><em>Economix</em></a>, <a title="Big Picture" href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/02/dissecting-the-nonfarm-payroll-data/" target="_self"><em>Big Picture</em></a>)</p>
<p>Will <strong>5%+ mortgage rates</strong> scare off potential home buyers?  (<a title="24/7 Wall St." href="http://247wallst.com/2010/02/05/as-mortgage-rates-move-above-5-a-new-normal-for-home-buyers/" target="_self"><em>24/7 Wall St.</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Brett Steenbarger</strong>, &#8220;Market technician Joe Granville famously asserted that if it&#8217;s obvious, it&#8217;s obviously wrong.  <strong>That&#8217;s the salience principle</strong>, and it&#8217;s why impulsive trades so often are losers.&#8221;  (<a title="TraderFeed" href="http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2010/02/salience-principle.html" target="_self"><em>TraderFeed</em></a>)</p>
<p>On the difference between <strong>process and outcome</strong>.  (<a title="Farnam Street" href="http://1440-68131.blogspot.com/2010/02/hindsight-foresight-and-pure-luck.html" target="_self"><em>Farnam Street</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Bonuses affect activity</strong>, not necessarily performance.  (<a title="Wired UK" href="http://www.wired.co.uk/wired-magazine/archive/2010/03/start/dan-ariely-bonuses-boost-activity,-but-not-quality.aspx" target="_self"><em>Wired UK</em></a>)</p>
<p>A review of <strong>James Picerno&#8217;s</strong> new book &#8220;Dynamic Asset Allocation: Modern Portfolio Theory Updated for the Smart Investor.&#8221;  (<a title="CFA Institute" href="http://www.cfapubs.org/doi/full/10.2469/br.v5.n1.3" target="_self"><em>CFA Institute</em></a>)</p>
<p>This season what <strong>NFL teams</strong> generated the most &#8220;alpha&#8221;?  (<a title="Analytic Investors" href="http://www.aninvestor.com/pdfs/NFL_Alphas_2009-2010_final.pdf" target="_self"><em>Analytic Investors</em></a> via <a title="InvestmentNews" href="http://www.investmentnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/gallery?Site=CI&amp;Date=20100204&amp;Category=FREE&amp;ArtNo=204009999&amp;Ref=PH&amp;Params=Itemnr=1" target="_self"><em>InvestmentNews</em></a>)</p>
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		<title>Thursday links:  performance persistence</title>
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		<comments>http://classic.abnormalreturns.com/thursday-links-performance-persistence/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Feb 2010 17:31:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>abnormalreturns</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[$MSFT]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[VXX]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://classic.abnormalreturns.com/?p=6580</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Investor sentiment took a hit during the market correction.  (Bespoke)
What the timber market is telling us about the housing economy.  (Minyanville)
Mutual fund investors are still positioned quite conservatively.  (The Pragmatic Capitalist)
Altman says bond default rates could fall but 2011 could be trouble if the economy doesn&#8217;t turn.  (DealBook)
Can you base an investment strategy on the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>Investor sentiment </strong>took a hit during the market correction.  (<a title="Bespoke" href="http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/2/3/investor-sentiment-turns-significantly-less-bullish.html" target="_self"><em>Bespoke</em></a>)</p>
<p>What <strong>the timber market</strong> is telling us about the housing economy.  (<a title="Minyanville.com" href="http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index/a/26678" target="_self"><em>Minyanville</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Mutual fund investors</strong> are still positioned quite conservatively.  (<a title="The Pragmatic Capitalist" href="http://pragcap.com/mutual-fund-flows-support-a-bullish-thesis" target="_self"><em>The Pragmatic Capitalist</em></a>)</p>
<p>Altman says <strong>bond default rates</strong> could fall but 2011 could be trouble if the economy doesn&#8217;t turn.  (<a title="DealBook" href="http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02/03/defaults-could-fall-by-half-this-year-altman-says/" target="_self"><em>DealBook</em></a>)</p>
<p>Can you base an investment strategy on the <strong>turn-of-the-month effect</strong>?  (<a title="Crossing Wall Street" href="http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2010/02/the_entire_stoc.html?" target="_self"><em>Crossing Wall Street</em></a>)</p>
<p>Should investors take a more active approach to <strong>commodity investing</strong>?  (<a title="IndexUniverse.com" href="http://www.indexuniverse.com/sections/features/7209-geert-rouwenhorst-the-case-for-active-commodity-investing.html" target="_self"><em>IndexUniverse</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Adam Warner</strong>, &#8220;But pick virtually any timeframe and you will come to the same conclusion. VXX is a terrible portfolio hedge.&#8221; (<a title="Daily Options Report" href="http://dailyoptionsreport.com/blog/post/volatility-as-an-asshat-class/" target="_self"><em>Daily Options Report</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Market volatility</strong>, as measured by 1% days, is on the rise.  (<em><a title="Bespoke" href="http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/2/4/the-return-of-the-1-day.html" target="_self">Bespoke</a></em>)</p>
<p>Investors don&#8217;t spend enough time <strong>thinking as opposed to doing</strong>.   (<a title="the research puzzle" href="http://researchpuzzle.com/blog/2010/02/04/thinking-about-doing/" target="_self"><em>the research puzzle</em></a> earlier <a title="Abnormal Returns" href="../2010/01/trading-sabbaticals/" target="_self"><em>Abnormal Returns</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>John Bogle&#8217;s simple investing message</strong> has remained consistent over time.  (<a title="Morningstar.com" href="http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=324895" target="_self"><em>Morningstar</em></a>)</p>
<p>Lower (or free) commissions make <strong>higher turnover strategies</strong> more attractive.  (<a title="VIX and More" href="http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2010/02/fidelity-offering-25-ishares-etfs.html" target="_self"><em>VIX and More</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Mutual fund performance persistence</strong> is scarce except for bottom quartile losers.  (<a title="SSRN.com" href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1543364" target="_self"><em>SSRN</em></a>)</p>
<p>The active vs. passive debate reaches <strong>Norway&#8217;s &#8220;petroleum fund.&#8221;</strong> (<a title="Economist.com" href="http://www.economist.com/businessfinance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15453041" target="_self"><em>Economist</em></a>)</p>
<p>Using interest rates to help <strong>explain currency returns</strong>.  (<a title="SSRN.com" href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1542342" target="_self"><em>SSRN</em></a>)</p>
<p>Apparently <strong>short-sellers</strong> know what they are doing.  (<a title="CXOAG" href="http://www.cxoadvisory.com/blog/external/blog2-04-10/" target="_self"><em>CXO Advisory Group</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Felix Salmon</strong>, &#8220;The point is that it’s pretty much impossible to have a bubble in something which doesn’t have a liquid asset class supporting it. &#8220;  (<a title="Reuters.com" href="http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2010/02/04/how-financial-innovation-causes-bubbles/" target="_self"><em>Reuters</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Simon Johnson</strong>, &#8220;The Fed is apparently, at last, moving the right direction on the issue of “too big to fail”.  But how long will it take to get there?&#8221;  (<a title="Baseline Scenario" href="http://baselinescenario.com/2010/02/04/kevin-warsh-“no-firm-should-be-too-big-to-fail”/" target="_self"><em>Baseline Scenario</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Andy Kessler</strong>, &#8220;Increased [bank] reserves may be the best financial reform we can hope for without politicians mucking it up. &#8220;  (<a title="WSJ.com" href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703699204575017462822204340.html?" target="_self"><em>WSJ</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>The FHA</strong> is kidding itself about default ratings.  (<a title="Clusterstock" href="http://www.businessinsider.com/sorry-folks-the-fha-is-still-going-to-meltdow-2010-2" target="_self"><em>Clusterstock</em></a>)</p>
<p>There is no <strong>wage inflation</strong> on the horizon.  (<a title="EconomPic Data" href="http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2010/02/dont-worry-about-inflation-for-now.html" target="_self"><em>EconomPic Data</em></a>)</p>
<p>Growing financial woes beset <strong>municipalities</strong>.  (<a title="Clusterstock" href="http://www.businessinsider.com/it-begins-cash-strapped-cities-begin-to-crumble-2010-2" target="_self"><em>Clusterstock</em></a>, <a title="Clusterstock" href="http://www.businessinsider.com/financial-disaster-looms-larger-as-los-angeles-city-counsel-delays-budget-reform-for-another-30-days-2010-2" target="_self"><em>ibid</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Floyd Norris</strong>, &#8220;Can the world economic recovery continue with a stumbling Europe?&#8221;  (<a title="NYTimes.com" href="http://norris.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02/04/crumbling-europe/" target="_self"><em>NYTimes</em></a>)</p>
<p>Why the world remains so dependent on <strong>coal as an energy source</strong>.  (<a title="Economist.com" href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2010/02/energy_transition" target="_self"><em>Free exchange</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Large pharma </strong>needs new business, scientific and organizational models.  (<a title="Knowledge@Wharton" href="http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=2424" target="_self"><em>Knowledge@Wharton</em></a>)</p>
<p>Just what is <strong>Prozac</strong> and other SSRIs actually good for?  (<a title="The Frontal Cortex" href="http://scienceblogs.com/cortex/2010/02/prozac.php" target="_self"><em>The Frontal Cortex</em></a>)</p>
<p>Why <strong>Microsoft (<a title="StockTwits.com" href="http://www.stocktwits.com/t/MSFT" target="_self">MSFT</a>)</strong> ceased innovating.  (<em><a title="Farnam Street" href="http://1440-68131.blogspot.com/2010/02/microsofts-creative-destruction.html" target="_self">Farnam Street</a></em>)</p>
<p>An interesting interview with value investor <strong>Mariusz Skonieczny</strong>. (<a title="Simoleon Sense" href="http://www.simoleonsense.com/miguel-barbosa-interviews-mariusz-skonieczny-of-classic-value-investors-llc/" target="_self"><em>Simoleon Sense</em></a>)</p>
<p>A profile of StockTwits CEO <strong>Howard Lindzon</strong>.  (<a title="Globe and Mail" href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/howard-lindzon-star-of-the-virtual-trading-floor/article1454262/" target="_self"><em>Globe and Mail</em></a>)</p>
<p>Why <strong>Twitter</strong> is a &#8220;vital part of the information economy..&#8221;  (<a title="NYTimes.com" href="http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02/03/the-twitter-train-has-left-the-station/" target="_self"><em>Bits</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Copycat companies are everywhere</strong>.  Execution is what matters.  (<a title="Andy Swan" href="http://andyswan.com/blog/2010/02/03/copycat-companies/" target="_self"><em>Andy Swan</em></a>)</p>
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		<title>Wednesday links:  low yield conundrum</title>
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		<comments>http://classic.abnormalreturns.com/wednesday-links-low-yield-conundrum/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Feb 2010 16:43:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>abnormalreturns</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[$AAPL]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[$GS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[DOW]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MS]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Why are government bond yields so low?  (Mandel on Innovation and Growth also Trader&#8217;s Narrative)
Would a stock split move Apple (AAPL) stock higher?  (A Dash of Insight)
Commodities had had a rough start to the year.  (StockCharts Blog)
Another oversold metric.  (VIX and More)
A very long run view of the stock market.  (Crossing Wall Street)
What you exclude [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Why are <strong>government bond yields so low</strong>?  (<a title="Mandel on Growth" href="http://innovationandgrowth.wordpress.com/2010/02/03/conundrum-revisited-why-are-govt-interest-rates-so-low/" target="_self"><em>Mandel on Innovation and Growth</em></a> also <a title="Trader's Narrative" href="http://www.tradersnarrative.com/the-bubble-in-fixed-income-3563.html" target="_self"><em>Trader&#8217;s Narrative</em></a>)</p>
<p>Would a stock split move <strong>Apple (<a title="StockTwits.com" href="http://www.stocktwits.com/t/AAPL" target="_self">AAPL</a>)</strong> stock higher?  (<a title="A Dash of Insight" href="http://oldprof.typepad.com/a_dash_of_insight/2010/02/embracing-a-good-idea.html" target="_self"><em>A Dash of Insight</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Commodities</strong> had had a rough start to the year.  (<a title="StockCharts.com" href="http://blogs.stockcharts.com/dont_ignore_this_chart/2010/02/commodity-etfs-under-pressure-in-2010-dbb-gld.html" target="_self"><em>StockCharts Blog</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Another oversold metric</strong>.  (<a title="VIX and More" href="http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2010/02/mamis-overbought-oversold-indicator.html" target="_self"><em>VIX and More</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>A very long run view</strong> of the stock market.  (<a title="Crossing Wall Street" href="http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2010/02/the_very_long_v.html" target="_self"><em>Crossing Wall Street</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>What you exclude from an index </strong>may be just as important as what you include.  (<a title="Random Roger" href="http://randomroger.blogspot.com/2010/02/jason-zweig-on-country-selection.html" target="_self"><em>Random Roger</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Japan</strong> is ripe with stocks trading below liquidation value.  (<a title="WSJ.com" href="http://blogs.wsj.com/source/2010/02/03/gordon-gekko-looks-east/" target="_self"><em>The Source</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>A sector momentum strategy</strong> is less reliable than previously believed.  (<a title="CXOAG" href="http://www.cxoadvisory.com/blog/internal/blog2-03-10/" target="_self"><em>CXO Advisory Group</em></a>)</p>
<p>Can you guard your personal finances against <strong>the costs of higher deficits</strong>?  (<a title="WSJ.com" href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704022804575041461919200320.html" target="_self"><em>ROI</em></a>)</p>
<p>Why a <strong>buy and hold investment strategy</strong> may be the least worst option.  (<a title="The Psy-Fi Blog" href="http://www.psyfitec.com/2010/02/buy-and-hold-least-worst-option.html" target="_self"><em>The Psy-Fi Blog</em></a> earlier <a title="Abnormal Returns" href="http://classic.abnormalreturns.com/2009/10/buy-and-hold-the-best-of-a-bad-lot/" target="_self"><em>Abnormal Returns</em></a>)</p>
<p>What <strong>Dow Chemical (<a title="StockTwits.com" href="http://www.stocktwits.com/t/DOW" target="_self">DOW</a>) </strong>is telling us about the global economy.  (<a title="Value Plays" href="http://www.valueplays.net/2010/02/the-global-economic-picture/" target="_self"><em>Value Plays</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Beware Russians bearing IPOs</strong>.  (<a title="DealBook" href="http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02/03/a-word-of-caution-on-new-russian-ipos/" target="_self"><em>DealBook</em></a>)</p>
<p>Some REITs now have the problem of having <strong>too much cash</strong>.  (<a title="WSJ.com" href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB20001424052748703338504575041441730042712.html" target="_self"><em>WSJ</em></a>)</p>
<p>The chances of <strong>homeowners walking away</strong> from their mortgages increases as negative equity rises.  (<a title="Calculated Risk" href="http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/02/nytimes-more-homeowners-just-walk-away.html" target="_self"><em>Calculated Risk</em></a>, <a title="naked capitalism" href="http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/02/is-the-us-reaching-a-strategic-default-tipping-point.html" target="_self"><em>naked capitalism</em></a>)</p>
<p>Disentangling the many <strong>causes of the mortgage/financial crisis</strong>.  (<a title="Big Picture" href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/02/causes-of-the-crisis/" target="_self"><em>Big Picture</em></a> also <a title="DJ Market Talk" href="http://markettalk.newswires-americas.com/?p=8480" target="_self"><em>DJ Market Talk</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Goldman Sachs (<a title="StockTwits.com" href="http://www.stocktwits.com/t/GS" target="_self">GS</a>)</strong> and <strong>Morgan Stanley (<a title="StockTwits.com" href="http://www.stocktwits.com/t/MS" target="_self">MS</a>)</strong> will be able to evade the Volcker Rule.  (<a title="naked capitalism" href="http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/02/goldman-morgan-stanley-can-escape-volcker-rule.html" target="_self"><em>naked capitalism</em></a>, <a title="Reuters.com" href="http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2010/02/03/the-volcker-rules-loopholes/" target="_self"><em>Felix Salmon</em></a>)</p>
<p>Round 2 of the <strong>AIG bonus</strong> controversy.  (<a title="WashingtonPost.com" href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/02/02/AR2010020203036.html" target="_self"><em>WashingtonPost</em></a>, <a title="DealBook" href="http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02/02/aig-plans-100-million-bonus-payout/" target="_self"><em>DealBook</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>The Fed</strong> quietly ends some of the lending facilities launched in the midst of the crisis.  (<a title="Real Time Economics" href="http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/02/02/rip-cpff-pdcf-tslf-amlf-et-al/" target="_self"><em>Real Time Economics</em></a>)</p>
<p>A scary chart depicting <strong>subprime mortgage loss severity</strong>.  (<a title="Alea Blog" href="http://www.aleablog.com/scariest-chart-ever-loss-severity-subprime-first-lien/" target="_self"><em>Alea</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Core inflation measures</strong> are falling even though few believe it.  (<a title="Economist's View" href="http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2010/02/deflation.html" target="_self"><em>Economist&#8217;s View</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Jim Chanos</strong> on the &#8220;malinvestment&#8221; problems in China.  (<a title="Credit Writedowns" href="http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/02/jim-chanos-still-bearish-on-china-talks-malinvestment.html" target="_self"><em>Credit Writedowns</em></a>, <a title="designing better futures" href="http://nickgogerty.typepad.com/designing_better_futures/2010/02/chanos-on-china-krugman-on-asia-1994-ussr-1960.html" target="_self"><em>designing better futures</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Michael Pettis</strong>, &#8220;The idea that massive levels of reserves are a guarantor of economic stability is, in other words, based on a profound misunderstanding both of history and of the nature of reserves.&#8221;  (<a title="China Financial Markets" href="http://mpettis.com/2010/02/never-short-a-country-with-2-trillion-in-reserves/" target="_self"><em>China Financial Markets</em></a>)</p>
<p>Findings from the inaugural &#8216;<strong>Economic Outlook: A Quarterly Survey of Top Economics Bloggers</strong>.&#8217;  (<a title="Kauffman Foundation" href="http://www.kauffman.org/newsroom/economics-bloggers-share-bleak-outlook-according-to-kauffman-foundation-survey.aspx" target="_self"><em>Kauffman Foundation</em></a>)</p>
<p>An interview with <strong>Ed Thorpe</strong>.  (<a title="Infectious Greed" href="http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2010/02/ed_thorpe_speak.html" target="_self"><em>Infectious Greed</em></a>, <a title="The Pragmatic Capitalist" href="http://pragcap.com/an-interview-with-ed-thorpe-the-godfather-of-quants" target="_self"><em>The Pragmatic Capitalist</em></a>)</p>
<p>More on the <strong>online brokerage price wars</strong>.  (<a title="WSJ.com" href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704022804575041221638983884.html" target="_self"><em>WSJ</em></a>, <a title="24/7 Wall St." href="http://247wallst.com/2010/02/02/electronic-trading-price-wars-amtd-schw-etfc-ibkc/" target="_self"><em>24/7 Wall St.</em></a>, <a title="NYTimes.com" href="http://bucks.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02/02/fidelity-cuts-trading-fees-waives-commissions-on-25-etfs/" target="_self"><em>Bucks</em></a>)</p>
<p>Free ETF trading is not a boon to investors.  (<a title="IndexUniverse.com" href="http://www.indexuniverse.com/blog/7206-fidelitys-free-etf-trading-bad-for-investors.html" target="_self"><em>IndexUniverse</em></a> earlier <a title="Abnormal Returns" href="http://classic.abnormalreturns.com/2009/08/the-true-cost-of-cheap-calories-and-commissions/" target="_self"><em>Abnormal Returns</em></a>)</p>
<p>Some resources for those of you interested in &#8220;<strong>piggyback investing</strong>.&#8221;  (<a title="New Rules of Investing" href="http://newrulesofinvesting.com/2010/02/03/top-6-resources-for-piggyback-investing/" target="_self"><em>New Rules of Investing</em></a>)</p>
<p>A spreadsheet analyzing the <strong>profitability of the Oscar nominees</strong>.  (<a title="WSJ.com" href="http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/st_BestPicture_20090202.html" target="_self"><em>WSJ</em></a>)</p>
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		<title>Tuesday links:  missing micro-caps</title>
		<link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/abnormalreturns/~3/Phs__75nAZc/</link>
		<comments>http://classic.abnormalreturns.com/tuesday-links-missing-micro-caps/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Feb 2010 17:41:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>abnormalreturns</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://classic.abnormalreturns.com/?p=6545</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Richard Ferri, &#8220;What is the problem with micro-cap index funds and ETFs? The problem is that there are no true micro-cap index funds or ETFs. They don&#8217;t exist.&#8221;  (Forbes)
Fidelity&#8217;s lower commissions and commission-free trades in 25 iShares ETFs advances the online broker price war.  (Marketwatch, ETF Trends, Morningstar)
What is the &#8220;third generation ETF platform&#8220;?  (FT [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>Richard Ferri</strong>, &#8220;What is the problem with micro-cap index funds and ETFs? The problem is that there are no true micro-cap index funds or ETFs. They don&#8217;t exist.&#8221;  (<a title="Forbes.com" href="http://www.forbes.com/2010/02/02/microcaps-funds-etfs-russell-bridgeway-personal-finance-indexer-ferri.html" target="_self"><em>Forbes</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Fidelity&#8217;s lower commissions</strong> and commission-free trades in 25 iShares ETFs advances the online broker price war.  (<a title="Marketwatch.com" href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fidelity-cuts-online-trading-commissions-2010-02-02-104300" target="_self"><em>Marketwatch</em></a>, <a title="ETF Trends" href="http://www.etftrends.com/2010/02/hot-off-presses-fidelity-slashes-prices-etf-trades.html" target="_self"><em>ETF Trends</em></a>, <a title="Morningstar.com" href="http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=324643" target="_self"><em>Morningstar</em></a>)</p>
<p>What is the &#8220;<strong>third generation ETF platform</strong>&#8220;?  (<a title="FT Alphavillle" href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/02/02/138541/etf-providers-of-the-third-kind/" target="_self"><em>FT Alphaville</em></a>)</p>
<p>Another <strong>oversold reading</strong> for the stock market.  (<a title="Bespoke" href="http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/2/2/upside-volume-hits-extreme-oversold-levels.html" target="_self"><em>Bespoke</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Hedge funds</strong> had a quiet January.  (<a title="FINalternatives.com" href="http://www.finalternatives.com/node/11203" target="_self"><em>FINalternatives</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Ten largest hedge funds of 2009</strong>.  (<a title="HedgeCo.Net" href="http://www.hedgeco.net/news/02/2010/the-top-ten-hedge-fund-launches-of-2009.html" target="_self"><em>HedgeCo.Net</em></a>)</p>
<p>Mixed results from a couple of <strong>economic bellwethers</strong>.  (<a title="MarketBeat" href="http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2010/02/02/ups-earnings-readthrough-us-economy-still-slug-like/" target="_self"><em>MarketBeat</em></a>, <a title="DealZone" href="http://blogs.reuters.com/reuters-dealzone/2010/02/02/manpower-deal-a-sign-of-economic-strength/" target="_self"><em>DealZone</em></a>)</p>
<p>Is <strong>Norway</strong> risking an asset bubble?  (<a title="FT.com" href="http://blogs.ft.com/money-supply/2010/02/01/roubini-says-norway-risks-asset-price-bubble/" target="_self"><em>Money Supply</em></a>)</p>
<p>Has <strong>China</strong> switched from bull to bear?  (<a title="The Pragmatic Capitalist" href="http://pragcap.com/is-this-the-beginning-of-a-new-bear-market-in-china" target="_self"><em>The Pragmatic Capitalist</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Australia</strong> decides to hold rates steady.  (<a title="FT Alphavillle" href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/02/02/138681/the-rbas-shocker-down-under/" target="_self"><em>FT Alphaville</em></a> also<em> <a title="Mish" href="http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/02/pool-of-greater-housing-fools-in.html" target="_self">Mish</a></em>)<em><br />
</em></p>
<p>&#8220;Can one devise a way of spotting<strong> those countries which are most at risk from a debt crisis</strong>?&#8221;  (<a title="Economist.com" href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2010/02/debt_crisis_-_how_countries_rank" target="_self"><em>Buttonwood</em></a>)</p>
<p>&#8220;<strong>Investor misreaction to crises</strong>, not economic fundamentals, appear to drive stock return predictability.&#8221; (<a title="CXOAG" href="http://www.cxoadvisory.com/blog/external/blog2-02-10/" target="_self"><em>CXO Advisory Group</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Ten year venture capital returns</strong> continue to slide.  (<a title="TechCrunch.com" href="http://www.techcrunch.com/2010/02/01/ten-year-venture-capital-returns-continue-to-slide/" target="_self"><em>TechCrunch</em></a>, <a title="FT.com" href="http://blogs.ft.com/techblog/2010/02/why-long-term-vc-returns-are-about-to-crater/" target="_self"><em>techblog</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Roy Smith</strong>, &#8220;We need to do something about firms that are too big to fail. These firms have become loss transmitters and accelerators to the rest of the system.&#8221;  (<a title="Time.com" href="http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1958294,00.html" target="_self"><em>Time</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>The FHA</strong> has got itself a bit of a delinquency problem.  (<a title="WashingtonPost.com" href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/02/01/AR2010020103527.html" target="_self"><em>WashingtonPost</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Home ownership rates </strong>are down to levels last seen in 2000.  (<a title="Calculated Risk" href="http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/02/q4-homeownership-rate-declines-to-early.html" target="_self"><em>Calculated Risk</em></a>)</p>
<p>Comparing <strong>US and EU unemployment</strong> rates.  (<em><a title="EconomPic Data" href="http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2010/02/comparing-us-and-eu-unemployment.html" target="_self">EconomPic Data</a></em>)</p>
<p><strong>Large pharmaceutical companies</strong> can shrink only so much.  They now need new financial and scientific models.  (<a title="Atlantic Business" href="http://business.theatlantic.com/2010/02/shrinking_pharma_-_again.php" target="_self"><em>Atlantic Business</em></a>)</p>
<p>The madness behind <strong>the Tesla IPO.</strong> (<a title="The Big Money" href="http://www.thebigmoney.com/blogs/shifting-gears/2010/02/01/tesla-mother-all-2010-ipos" target="_self"><em>The Big Money</em></a>)</p>
<p>How are we going to charge of these <strong>new electric vehicles</strong>?  (<a title="Economist.com" href="http://www.economist.com/sciencetechnology/displayStory.cfm?story_id=15434416" target="_self"><em>Economist</em></a>)</p>
<p>What is &#8220;<strong>cognitive fluency</strong>&#8220;?  (<a title="Street Capitalist" href="http://streetcapitalist.com/2010/02/01/cognitive-fluency-easy-true/" target="_self"><em>Street Capitalist</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>An online finance wishlist</strong>.  (<a title="New Rules of Investing" href="http://newrulesofinvesting.com/2010/02/02/online-finance-wishlist-can-you-show-a-brother-some-love/" target="_self"><em>New Rules of Investing</em></a>)</p>
<p>Good reason to wait for <strong>iPad version 2.0</strong>.  (<a title="TechCrunch.com" href="http://www.techcrunch.com/2010/02/01/apple-tablet-os-x-ipad/" target="_self"><em>TechCrunch</em></a>)</p>
<p>Hedge funds got crushed by the problems at <strong>MGM</strong>.  (<a title="Gawker.com" href="http://gawker.com/5461416/the-mgm-follies-how-hedge-funds-got-taken-for-a-billion-dollar-ride-in-hollywood" target="_self"><em>Gawker</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Oscar nominations announced</strong>.  How Oscar campaigns work.  (<a title="IMDB.com" href="http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2010/oscars" target="_self"><em>IMDB</em></a>, <a title="WashingtonPost.com" href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/02/01/AR2010020103710.html" target="_self"><em>WashingtonPost</em></a>)</p>
<p>Talk about a lost decade.  <strong>The music industry</strong> saw its sales get cut in half in the past ten years.  (<a title="CNNMoney.com" href="http://money.cnn.com/2010/02/02/news/companies/napster_music_industry/index.htm" target="_self"><em>CNNMoney</em></a>)</p>
<p>The debate over <strong>multi-tasking</strong>, attention, laptops and the classroom.  (<a title="Chronicle.com" href="http://chronicle.com/article/Scholars-Turn-Their-Attention/63746/" target="_self"><em>Chronicle of Higher Education</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Giant squid</strong>=lower calamari prices.  (<a title="The Reformed Broker" href="http://thereformedbroker.com/2010/02/01/giant-squid-attack-california-coast-finance-blogger-resists-urge-to-make-goldman-joke/" target="_self"><em>The Reformed Broker</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Your coffee sucks</strong>.  (<a title="DaliyFinance.com" href="http://www.dailyfinance.com/story/why-america-cant-get-a-great-cup-of-coffee/19340771/" target="_self"><em>DailyFinance</em></a>)</p>
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		<title>Monday links:  nuanced returns</title>
		<link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/abnormalreturns/~3/6wMnBueppUs/</link>
		<comments>http://classic.abnormalreturns.com/monday-links-nuanced-returns/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 01 Feb 2010 17:45:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>abnormalreturns</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[$AAPL]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AMZN]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CME]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[VXX]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://classic.abnormalreturns.com/?p=6525</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Where&#8217;s the bubble:  bonds or equities?  (Big Picture)
The junk phase of the rally is over.  What next?  (The Reformed Broker)
2010 will be a year of &#8220;nuance&#8221; in asset class returns.  (Capital Spectator also Investment Postcards, EconomPic Data)
How much stock should we put into the small cap effect?  (MarketSci Blog also New Rules of Investing)
The bulls [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Where&#8217;s the bubble:  <strong>bonds or equities</strong>?  (<a title="Big Picture" href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/02/wheres-the-bubble-stocks-or-bonds/" target="_self"><em>Big Picture</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>The junk phase of the rally is over</strong>.  What next?  (<a title="The Reformed Broker" href="http://thereformedbroker.com/2010/01/31/wait-why-am-i-in-aig-again-the-buy-anything-phase-is-over/" target="_self"><em>The Reformed Broker</em></a>)</p>
<p>2010 will be a year of &#8220;<strong>nuance</strong>&#8221; in asset class returns.  (<a title="Capital Spectator" href="http://www.capitalspectator.com/archives/2010/02/the_age_of_nuan.html" target="_self"><em>Capital Spectator</em></a> also <a title="Investment Postcards" href="http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2010/01/31/global-stock-markets-performance-round-up/" target="_self"><em>Investment Postcards</em></a>, <a title="EconomPic Data" href="http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2010/02/asset-class-performance-its-been-all-em.html" target="_self"><em>EconomPic Data</em></a>)</p>
<p>How much stock should we put into <strong>the small cap effect</strong>?  (<a title="Marketsci Blog" href="http://marketsci.wordpress.com/2010/01/31/small-cap-outperformance-debunked/" target="_self"><em>MarketSci Blog</em></a> also <a title="New Rules of Investing" href="http://newrulesofinvesting.com/2010/02/01/smallcap-performance-does-size-matter/" target="_self"><em>New Rules of Investing</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>The bulls</strong> are nominally still in charge in the US equity market.  (<a title="Investment Postcards" href="http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2010/02/01/bullish-percent-index-still-in-positive-territory/" target="_self"><em>Investment Postcards</em></a>)</p>
<p>By this measure <strong>the correction has more to go</strong>.  (<a title="Big Picture" href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/02/aaaaaaaaaa/" target="_self"><em>Big Picture</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>February </strong>has not been that a great a month for the Dow historically.  (<a title="Bespoke" href="http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/2/1/average-monthly-performance-of-the-dow.html" target="_self"><em>Bespoke</em></a>)</p>
<p>Does<strong> sector performance </strong>have anything to do with happens in January?  (<a title="Kirk Report" href="http://www.thekirkreport.com/2010/02/january-barometer-portfolio.html" target="_self"><em>Kirk Report</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>The market&#8217;s mood turned in January</strong>.  Is that an opportunity?  (<a title="Deal Journal" href="http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2010/02/01/mean-street-the-stock-market-stinks-thats-why-im-buying-it/" target="_self"><em>Mean Street</em></a>)</p>
<p>One year of the<strong> iPath S&amp;P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (<a title="StockTwits.com" href="http://www.stocktwits.com/t/VXX" target="_self">VXX</a>)</strong>.  (<a title="VIX and More" href="http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2010/01/chart-of-week-vxx-celebrates-one-year.html" target="_self"><em>VIX and More</em></a>)</p>
<p>Why the<strong> CME Group (<a title="StockTwits.com" href="http://www.stocktwits.com/t/CME" target="_self">CME</a>)</strong> should buy the Dow Jones index business.  (<a title="MarketBeat" href="http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2010/02/01/why-it-makes-sense-for-cme-to-buy-the-dow/" target="_self"><em>MarketBeat</em></a>)</p>
<p>Check the <strong>spreads on an ETF</strong> before trading.  (<a title="WSJ.com" href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB20001424052748703837004575012772071656484.html" target="_self"><em>WSJ</em></a>)</p>
<p>What<strong> implied volatility </strong>tells us about future returns.  (<a title="CXOAG" href="http://www.cxoadvisory.com/blog/external/blog2-01-10/" target="_self"><em>CXO Advisory Group</em></a>)</p>
<p>On the link between <strong>preparation and performance</strong>.  (<a title="TraderFeed" href="http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2010/01/preparation-performance-and-look-of.html" target="_self"><em>TraderFeed</em></a>)</p>
<p>Disentangling the effects of a <strong>CFA or MBA</strong> on investment performance.  (<em><a title="SSRN.com" href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1458219" target="_self">SSRN</a></em>)</p>
<p>Finally some one found <strong>a bull on the economy</strong> and markets.  (<a title="Clusterstock" href="http://www.businessinsider.com/steve-mandel-its-game-on-in-the-equity-market-2010-1" target="_self"><em>Clusterstock</em></a>)</p>
<p>Will <strong>merger arb hedge funds</strong> benefit from a pick up in MA&amp; activity?  (<a title="All About Alpha" href="http://allaboutalpha.com/blog/2010/01/31/a-favorite-going-into-the-games-of-2010/" target="_self"><em>All About Alpha</em></a>)</p>
<p>UK and US <strong>natural gas prices diverge</strong>.  (<a title="FT Alphavillle" href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/02/01/138321/the-ukus-natgas-divergence/" target="_self"><em>FT Alphaville</em></a>)</p>
<p>Will <strong>Goldman Sachs (<a title="StockTwits.com" href="http://www.stocktwits.com/t/GS" target="_self">GS</a>)</strong> thumb its nose at the government by paying Lloyd Blankenfein $100 million?  (<a title="naked capitalism" href="http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/02/lloyd-blankfein-100-million-man.html" target="_self"><em>naked capitalism</em></a>, <a title="Deal Journal" href="http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2010/02/01/a-100-million-bonus-for-goldmans-blankfein/" target="_self"><em>Deal Journal</em></a>, <a title="Reuters.com" href="http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2010/02/01/blankfeins-eight-figure-bonus/" target="_self"><em>Felix Salmon</em></a>, <a title="Dealbreaker.com" href="http://dealbreaker.com/2010/02/goldman-sachs-spokesman-lucas.php" target="_self"><em>Dealbreaker</em></a>)</p>
<p>Is <strong>private equity </strong>consolidation coming?  (<a title="WSJ.com" href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704107204575038860888549530.html" target="_self"><em>WSJ</em></a>)</p>
<p>Traders are fleeing <strong>the Euro</strong>.  (<a title="The Money Game" href="http://www.businessinsider.com/investors-ditching-the-euro-2010-2" target="_self"><em>The Money Game</em></a>)</p>
<p>Are <strong>Greek bonds </strong>the new subprime?  (<a title="MarketBeat" href="http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2010/02/01/are-greek-bonds-the-new-subprime/" target="_self"><em>MarketBeat</em></a>)</p>
<p>Obama plans a <strong>$3.8 trillion budget</strong>. (<a title="WashingtonPost.com" href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/31/AR2010013101377.html" target="_self"><em>WashingtonPost</em></a>)</p>
<p>Confusion reigns as <strong>the deficit</strong> continues to balloon.  (<a title="24/7 Wall St." href="http://247wallst.com/2010/02/01/finanacial-confusion-reigns-on-record-1-6-trillion-deficit-forecast/" target="_self"><em>24/7 Wall St.</em></a>, <a title="Atlantic Business" href="http://business.theatlantic.com/2010/02/is_2010s_budget_deficit_really_a_record_high.php" target="_self"><em>Atlantic Business</em></a>, <a title="Reuters.com" href="http://blogs.reuters.com/rolfe-winkler/2010/02/01/obamas-blowout-budget/" target="_self"><em>Rolfe Winkler</em></a>)</p>
<p>&#8220;The financing backbone of <strong>the American mortgage market </strong>has effectively been transferred from the banks to the government.&#8221;  (<a title="FT Alphavillle" href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/02/01/138311/of-vacuums-and-central-bank-policies/" target="_self"><em>FT Alphaville</em></a>)</p>
<p>&#8220;The British screwed us,&#8221; <strong>Henry Paulson</strong> stated in regards to the British stance on a Lehman Brothers rescue.  (<a title="WSJ.com" href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704722304575037230802598298.html" target="_self"><em>WSJ</em></a> also <a title="Clusterstock" href="http://www.businessinsider.com/lehman-author-bashes-hank-paulson-2010-2" target="_self"><em>Clusterstock</em></a>, <a title="DealBook" href="http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02/01/paulson-blames-uk-for-lehmans-demise/" target="_self"><em>DealBook</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>CIA agents </strong>are moonlighting for major financial institutions.  (<a title="Politico.com" href="http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0110/32290.html" target="_self"><em>Politico</em></a> also <a title="Farnham Street" href="http://1440-68131.blogspot.com/2010/02/deception-detection.html" target="_self"><em>Farnham Street</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Katie Fehrenbacher</strong>, &#8220;If investors actually respond positively to Tesla’s public offering, to me, it will mean that in this media-saturated day and age, branding is truly everything.&#8221;  (<a title="earth2tech.com" href="http://earth2tech.com/2010/02/01/what-a-successful-tesla-ipo-would-mean-branding-is-everything/" target="_self"><em>earth2tech</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>A new monthly options magazine</strong> from the blogosphere&#8217;s best options bloggers.  (<a title="Expiring Monthly" href="http://www.expiringmonthly.com/" target="_self"><em>Expiring Monthly</em></a>)</p>
<p>Take <strong>journalist&#8217;s stock picks</strong> with a big grain of salt.  (<a title="The Big Money" href="http://www.thebigmoney.com/articles/money-trail/2010/01/31/my-rotten-apple-mistake" target="_self"><em>The Big Money</em></a>)</p>
<p>The &#8220;disposition effect&#8221; shows up in <strong>NFL betting markets</strong>.  (<a title="SSRN.com" href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1540313" target="_self"><em>SSRN</em></a>)</p>
<p>The<strong> e-book business </strong>is getting all shook up.  (<a title="NYTimes.com" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/01/technology/companies/01amazonweb.html" target="_self"><em>NYTimes</em></a>, <a title="GigaOM.com" href="http://gigaom.com/2010/02/01/has-amazon-won-or-lost-the-e-book-war-both/" target="_self"><em>GigaOM</em></a>, <a title="Barrons.com" href="http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2010/02/01/amazon-tumbles-as-e-book-pricing-model-unravels/" target="_self"><em>Tech Trader Daily</em></a>)</p>
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		<title>Sunday links:  January hangover</title>
		<link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/abnormalreturns/~3/RxeCeDBH9G4/</link>
		<comments>http://classic.abnormalreturns.com/sunday-links-january-hangover/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 31 Jan 2010 13:33:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>abnormalreturns</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[$AAPL]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[$MSFT]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://classic.abnormalreturns.com/?p=6511</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The market pullback is getting a bit nasty.  (VIX and More)
The so-called January indicator in perspective.  (dshort)
The state of investor sentiment at week-end.  (Trader&#8217;s Narrative, The Technical Take)
Your equity portfolio allocations are all off.   (WSJ)
In praise of home bias.  (Aleph Blog)
Why are so many companies hoarding cash instead of paying out dividends?  (Barron&#8217;s)
Some much needed [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The <strong>market pullback</strong> is getting a bit nasty.  (<a title="VIX and More" href="http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2010/01/spx-pullback-now-second-largest-since.html" target="_self"><em>VIX and More</em></a>)</p>
<p>The so-called <strong>January indicator</strong> in perspective.  (<a title="dshort.com" href="http://dshort.com/articles/2010/january-indicator.html" target="_self"><em>dshort</em></a>)</p>
<p>The state of <strong>investor sentiment</strong> at week-end.  (<a title="Trader's Narrative" href="http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-january-29th-2010-3534.html" target="_self"><em>Trader&#8217;s Narrative</em></a>, <a title="The Technical Take" href="http://thetechnicaltakedotcom.blogspot.com/2010/01/investor-sentiment.html?" target="_self"><em>The Technical Take</em></a>)</p>
<p>Your equity <strong>portfolio allocations</strong> are all off.   (<a title="WSJ.com" href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704343104575033103904554046.html" target="_self"><em>WSJ</em></a>)</p>
<p>In praise of <strong>home bias</strong>.  (<a title="Aleph Blog" href="http://alephblog.com/2010/01/31/in-defense-of-home-bias/" target="_self"><em>Aleph Blog</em></a>)</p>
<p>Why are so many companies hoarding cash instead of<strong> paying out dividends</strong>?  (<a title="Barrons.com" href="http://online.barrons.com/article/SB126481817546137663.html" target="_self"><em>Barron&#8217;s</em></a>)</p>
<p>Some much needed perspective on what it takes to become <strong>a successful trader</strong>.  (<a title="SMB Training" href="http://www.smbtraining.com/blog/the-failure-rate-of-a-proprietary-trader" target="_self"><em>SMB Training</em></a>)</p>
<p>On the need for and benefits of <strong>a trading sabbatical</strong>.  (<a title="Abnormal Returns" href="http://classic.abnormalreturns.com/2010/01/trading-sabbaticals/" target="_self"><em>Abnormal Returns</em></a>)</p>
<p>A look at <strong>Whitney Tilson&#8217;s larget positions</strong> (long and short).  (<a title="market folly" href="http://www.marketfolly.com/2010/01/whitney-tilsons-hedge-fund-t2-partners.html" target="_self"><em>market folly</em></a>)</p>
<p>Why exactly is <strong>Warren Buffett </strong>buying Burlington Northern.  (<a title="Contrarian Edge" href="http://contrarianedge.com/2010/01/31/a-few-thoughts-on-the-burlington-acquisition/" target="_self"><em>Contrarian Edge</em></a>)<em><br />
</em></p>
<p>Who is going to buy the <strong>Dow Jones index business</strong>?  (<a title="New Rules of Investing" href="http://newrulesofinvesting.com/2010/01/31/the-cme-industrial-index-cme-in-the-lead-to-buy-dow-jones-indexes/" target="_self"><em>New Rules of Investing</em></a>)</p>
<p>How your <strong>political leanings</strong> may affect your investing.  (<a title="NYTimes.com" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/31/your-money/31stra.html" target="_self"><em>NYTimes</em></a>)</p>
<p>A closer examination of the intended and unintended consequences of <strong>leveraged and inverse ETFs</strong>.  (<a title="SSRN.com" href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1539120" target="_self"><em>SSRN</em></a>)</p>
<p>More reactions to the <strong>4Q GDP</strong> estimates.  (<a title="Marketwatch.com" href="http://blogs.marketwatch.com/fundmastery/2010/01/29/can-we-trust-this-economy/" target="_self"><em>Fundmastery Blog</em></a>, <a title="Calculated Risk" href="http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/01/real-gdp-declines-from-prior-peak.html" target="_self"><em>Calculated Risk</em></a>, <a title="Bespoke" href="http://www.bespokeinvest.com/bespoke/2010/01/contributions-to-real-gdp-growth-in-q4.html" target="_self"><em>Bespoke</em></a>, <a title="Economist's View" href="http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2010/01/gdp-growth-grows-at-an-estimated-57-annual-rate-in-the-fourth-quarter-of-2009.html" target="_self"><em>Economist&#8217;s View</em></a>, <a title="Atlantic Business" href="http://business.theatlantic.com/2010/01/dude_wheres_my_job.php" target="_self"><em>Atlantic Business</em></a>)</p>
<p>According to <strong>ECRI</strong> the recovery is humming along.  (<a title="The Pragmatic Capitalist" href="http://pragcap.com/ecri-recovery-to-keep-going" target="_self"><em>The Pragmatic Capitalist</em></a>)</p>
<p>The<strong> Restaurant Index </strong>turns higher in December.  (<a title="Calculated Risk" href="http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/01/restaurant-index-improves-in-december.html" target="_self"><em>Calculated Risk</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Robert Shiller</strong>, &#8220;In reality, business recessions are caused by a curious mix of rational and irrational behavior. &#8220;  (<a title="NYTimes.com" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/31/business/economy/31view.html" target="_self"><em>NYTimes</em></a> also <a title="Economist's View" href="http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2010/01/hearts-and-minds.html" target="_self"><em>Economist&#8217;s View</em></a>)</p>
<p>The laws of supply and demand at work in <strong>the housing market.</strong> (<a title="NYTimes.com" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/30/business/economy/30charts.html" target="_self"><em>Floyd Norris</em></a>)</p>
<p>No matter how you look at it <strong>the deficit picture</strong> is ugly.  (<a title="The Money Game" href="http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-so-how-do-you-think-this-movie-will-end-2010-1" target="_self"><em>The Money Game</em></a>)</p>
<p>Is the &#8220;<strong>Build America Bonds</strong>&#8221; program becoming permanent?  (<a title="WSJ.com" href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704343104575033661103022790.html" target="_self"><em>WSJ</em></a>)</p>
<p>A story of cynicism and <strong>institutional failure </strong>in corporate America.  (<a title="cdixon.org" href="http://cdixon.org/2010/01/30/institutional-failure/" target="_self"><em>Chris Dixon</em></a> also <a title="The Reformed Broker" href="http://thereformedbroker.com/2010/01/30/dixon-the-stock-market-as-greek-tragedy/" target="_self"><em>The Reformed Broker</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Tesla Motors</strong> files for an IPO.  (<a title="24/7 Wall St." href="http://247wallst.com/2010/01/29/its-here-tesla-motors-files-for-ipo/" target="_self"><em>24/7 Wall St.</em></a><em> also</em><a title="DealBook" href="http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/01/29/ipo-market-begins-to-regain-its-luster/" target="_self"><em> DealBook</em></a>, <a title="Deal Journal" href="http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2010/01/29/the-great-ipo-race-tesla-vs-gm/" target="_self"><em>Deal Journal</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Kevin Kelleher</strong>, &#8220;After 15 years, the evidence is pretty clear. The web is just not a part of Microsoft’s DNA.&#8221;  (<a title="GigaOM.com" href="http://gigaom.com/2010/01/30/admit-it-microsoft-you-suck-at-the-web/" target="_self"><em>GigaOM</em></a> also <a title="The Reformed Broker" href="http://thereformedbroker.com/2010/01/30/the-windows-royalty-trust-why-microsoft-should-convert-already/" target="_self"><em>The Reformed Broker</em></a>)</p>
<p>Why are so many people, so interested in reading about <strong>Apple (<a title="StockTwits.com" href="http://www.stocktwits.com/t/AAPL" target="_self">AAPL</a>)</strong>?  (<a title="MarketBeat" href="http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2010/01/29/its-time-to-step-away-from-the-apple-machine/" target="_self"><em>MarketBeat</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Peter Kafka</strong>, &#8220;Apple has yet to sell its first e-book, but it is already engaged in a bruising battle with Amazon for control of the market.&#8221;  (<a title="All Things D" href="http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/20100130/the-apple-amazon-book-war-heats-up-and-claims-macmillan-as-a-casualty/" target="_self"><em>All Things D</em></a>)</p>
<p>How investors can combat <strong>confirmation bias</strong>.  (<a title="The Psy-Fi Blog" href="http://www.psyfitec.com/2010/01/confirmation-bias-investors-curse.html" target="_self"><em>The Psy-Fi Blog</em></a>)</p>
<p><strong>Felix Salmon</strong> talks with <strong>Nouriel Roubini</strong>.  (<a title="Reuters.com" href="http://blogs.reuters.com/davos/2010/01/30/watch-felix-salmon-interview-nouriel-roubini/" target="_self"><em>Reuters</em></a>)</p>
<p>Geography is destiny when it comes to <strong>Europe&#8217;s &#8220;alcohol belts.&#8221;</strong> (<a title="Strange Maps" href="http://strangemaps.wordpress.com/2010/01/30/442-distilled-geography-europes-alcohol-belts/" target="_self"><em>Strange Maps</em></a>)</p>
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		<title>Trading sabbaticals</title>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 29 Jan 2010 20:22:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>abnormalreturns</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Behavioral Finance]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://classic.abnormalreturns.com/?p=6507</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[An investment in knowledge pays the best interest. - Benjamin Franklin
Have you ever taken a structured break from your trading, not unlike that of an academic sabbatical?
For some one who spends their time tracking and trading the markets it seems like there is never enough time to do the reading and research necessary to advance [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>An investment in knowledge pays the best interest. -<strong> <a title="Brainy Quote" href="http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/b/benjamin_franklin.html" target="_self">Benjamin Franklin</a></strong></p></blockquote>
<p>Have you ever taken a structured break from your trading, not unlike that of an academic <a title="Dictionary.com" href="http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/Sabbatical" target="_self">sabbatical</a>?</p>
<p>For some one who spends their time tracking and trading the markets it seems like there is never enough time to do the reading and research necessary to advance one&#8217;s trading knowledge.  In this situation stagnation, or burnout if you like, is a likely outcome.</p>
<p>This was point was driven home this week when we read that <strong>El Bulli</strong>, the famed Spanish restaurant known for its widely creative cuisine announced it was going to close in two years time.  The chef/owner <strong>Ferran Adria</strong> plans to take time to re-balance his life, invest in R&amp;D and find new ways of doing business.  (<strong>Matt Goulding</strong> in the <a title="WSJ.com" href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704094304575029580782188308.html" target="_self"><em>Wall Street Journal</em></a> has an interview with Adria.)</p>
<p>Most people would agree that cuisine as practiced by the likes of Adria is a highly creative endeavor.  We would argue that same thing could be said about trading as well.  However the relentless desire to be in front a trading screen can detract from the time needed to have some balance in one&#8217;s life and generate some measure of creativity.</p>
<p>Where one looks for that regeneration is a highly personal decision.  Academics take sabbaticals to study, write and sometimes teach.  For some it may mean physically going some place else.  For others it may mean holing up with a stack of books, or Kindle, you have been neglecting. The point being that traders are unlikely to do their best thinking in front a bank of monitors.</p>
<p>If Ferran Adria can close El Bulli, which has been named <a title="Economist.com" href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/gulliver/2010/01/el_bulli_takes_breather" target="_self">the best restaurant in the world</a> by <em>Restaurant</em> magazine for four years in a row, you can take a few days away from trading to as Benjamin Franklin puts it to &#8220;invest in knowledge.&#8221;</p>
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