ZEITGEIST from RUSSIA

2009-07-02T14:05:00.001+03:00

M. Khazin. Crisis theory. Report for the conference in Modena, Italy, 9 July 2008.

1. Introduction.

Today everyone is speaking about world economic crisis, however inaudibility takes place as soon as conversation drifts to plain reasons explanation of crisis, predictions and, most of all, results of it. At the same time plenty complete theory about this crisis had been developed by Russian economists O.V.Grigoriev, A.B.Kobyakov and M.L.Hazin in 1997-2001. It is more or less fully stated in “The end of dollar empire and Pax Americana”, but this book was produced in 2003, it is long enough and specific knowledge (not significant) is required for its understanding. Therefore I decided to correct above mentioned disadvantage in this report and more or less shortly (without unnecessary details and references) describe this theory for ordinary listener (reader) and analyze as exactly as possible the ways of crisis development and its main consequences. Statistical graphs, which are attached to this report, are relative to weekly embracing markets reviews made by “IT-Invest” analyst S.E.Egishyanz, and author expresses his gratitude for useful discussions during this report preparation.

2. Theory foundations.

2.1. Labor and capital. Crisis theory is based on two main statements. First of them was intensively developed by XIX century political economy within the limits of labor cost theory, according to which labor product is distributed irregularly between 2 production factors – labor and capital.
Capital, according to the fundamental principles of capitalism, considers labor product as its private property, and therefore labor owners don’t get for it appropriate remuneration. So constant accelerated capital increase is immanent, inherent problem of capitalism.
Problem is in particular linked with capital existence not only in monetary, but also in assets form. Asset cost is usually defined by market desire to buy it, and through the chain of buyings it will come to final customers or state demand. But both of them represent directly labor side in frames of production relations. So demand increase in terms of capitalism lags inevitably behind capital increase, which can devalue capital (without taking specific actions) in goods form or because of efficiency decrease. It is caused by decrease of demand growth volumes relative to capital increase, which leads to decrease of earnings volume to the unit of new capital. Drawing 1 illustrates this thesis (because of proof given in XIX century).

This problem solving was always very important for capital and has been realized by three main methods during all the human history. First method arised in period of classical capitalism, during which crisises of overproduction took place regularly. This method worked effectively but as world economy advanced crisises became more and more tough, so it was necessary to find something new.
Capital export to not mastered territories became the second method: respective policy derived name of imperialism in the end of XIX century. This method caused inevitably an intense competition not only for market channels of goods, but also for markets of capital export and was ended by I and then II World War. Because of USSR and then socialism formation caused alert for all capitalistic system, it was necessary to create much more consequent policy. Finally capital export was institutionalized under Bretton-Woods agreements, which created as institutes, regulated this process (WTO, IMF and World Bank), as world finance regulation system on the base of American dollar, linked to the gold and controlled respectively by Federal Reserve System.
2.2 World division of labor.
World division of labor became second basic element in our system because of its important role in scientific and technological progress model, which was formed in the end of XVIII – beginning of XIX centuries and is distributed all over the world today. The fundamental peculiarity of this model is in fact that each another stage of scientific and technological progress is always supported by enhancement of labor division processes, which in its turn required increase of market channels volumes. Therefore development of each country on the way of scientific and technological progress in last 250 years required market channels extension, i.e. markets under its control.
Quantity of technologically independent countries constantly reduced in last two centuries in connection with this fact. If in the middle of XIX century it was possible to find 10 really independent countries (with possibility to develop individually full spectrum of technological production), by the beginning of XX century we could talk about only 5 countries (Russian Empire, Germany, Austria-Hungary, France and Great Britain) and in the middle of XX century there were only two really independent countries in all world – the USA and USSR.
However political and social models in USSR and the USA were fundamentally different, scientific and technological processes developed there almost in parallel, and this fact confirmed identity of development and STP models. Both of them tried to rely on necessity to pay for the next STP stage by market channels extension, but their technologies of markets the USAge were absolutely different. At the same time process substance, STP financing, using load on customers as in the USA or using centralized social funds redistribution as in USSR, was unaffected.
But these two world economic leaders must have met real difficulties with next STP stage financing by the last quarter of XX century in view of rapid development of science and technique.
3. 70s crisis and “Reiganomics”.
Crisis of capitalism in 70s of XX century was caused, in the context of above mentioned circumstances and considerations, by two reasons. Firstly, surplus capital utilization problem has arised again by this time in connection with exhaustion of regions for capital export. Secondly, stoppage in market channels increase complicated significantly processes of STP development. It was impossible to admit tough crisises of overproduction or war in the terms of socialistic world system, so capital efficiency started its decrease. This fact has been just reflected on the customers (we can see this on Drawing 2, where average salary in the USA since 1950 is shown). It is important to note, that data for the last 10 years must be valuated critically because of significant understating of official inflation indicators in comparison with real indicators.

Therefore tough crisis was started, and it had not local, but system-wide character. Dollar default was announced by the USA in 1971, oil crisis was started in 1973. The same processes took place in USSR (they are now called as “slack”), and both of them must have looked for way out exactly in frames of capital efficiency increase problem, which must provide the next stage of STP. This problem had not been solved by USSR and this led to well-known results.
Depression (i.e. production decrease) and high level of inflation (i.e. stagflation), combination of which was impossible in terms of classical capitalistic economy, became the most important part of this crisis (see Drawing 3). It was concerned with necessity of the USA obligation to continue STP race with socialistic system and so to finance by all means innovation processes.

This problem decision had been found by the end of 70s and concerned with the names of head of FRS of that time Paul Walker and councilors group of American president J. Carter. The decision was in paradoxical conclusion: not to decrease monetary “pumping” using emission dollars, but to increase it. However to direct it not to the capital support (for this purpose private central bank - FRS – was created in 1913), but to straight final demand stimulation (not only state, but also private). This decision in view of above mentioned labor division mechanisms can be described as following: it is important to increase each market participants’ consumption, if market channels extension is impossible.
This plan realization certainly could let us make another stage of STP, but it was necessary to solve several cocurrent problems for it: firstly, to decrease considerably inflation in consumption sector, because of increase absence for this sector otherwise (customers’ expenses increase would have been compensated by prices increase); secondly, it was obligatory to provide customers’ expenses direction to the hi-tech sector, because of its great importance for tight race with USSR; thirdly, it was very important to provide mechanism of investment process stimulation because of redundant liquidity entry to the market (in other words customers’ money were mostly directed to development, not to financial speculations).
And all of these 3 problems has been solved. Inflation was beat by unique in history credit cost growth. Interest rate was increased to 20% (see Drawing 4); this fact changed fundamentally economical situation in the USA, and strengthened considerably dollar positions at World market (these positions had been strongly weakened by 1971 default). Moreover redundant liquidity was “utilized” using financial bubbles distension, i.e. rapid financial assets share increase. For this reason, the share of profit of the American corporations received for the account of financial sector, began to grow since 80s of the last century sharply (see Drawing 5).

For this reason, «reiganomics» has led to essential transformation of world capitalistic system, its transition in the third stage after the classical period and imperialism – stages of financial capitalism. But, as it is clear, the increase in a share of financial actives inevitably demanded increase in the credit multiplicator, that is the relation of wide monetary weight, for the USA – М3, to narrow monetary weight, cash, unit M1. Corresponding process is well visible on Drawing 6. We pay attention to recession on the graph in 90s, connected with "development" of the resources arriving, basically, from territory of the former USSR.

Let's notice that corresponding "bubbles" regularly burst (the share market in 1987, the market of dotcoms in 2000), however till some moment this process was under the control, in particular, inflation grew in a commodity part of a consumption sector rather poorly.
Direction of consumers’ expenses has been provided with the massed propagation, having provided unprecedented increase of those sectors of economy which have been connected with an information technology from the beginning of 80s. Besides, additional resources on purchase of the highly technological results of a domestic production have been received using an export manufacture of the consumer goods in the countries of the "third" world, first of all China and other countries SEA.
As to the third problem it has been solved just because of fact that in the early 90s the discount rate has been tired out on inaccessible height. As it is well visible on Drawing 4, from the beginning 80s rate, gradually falling, the monetary policy was softened and this stimulated the credit offer. We must notice that it also facilitated increase in the monetary multiplicator that provided use of financial sector of economy as "sponge" which accumulated redundant liquidity, without starting up it in a consumption sector.
Thus, in the mid-term period necessary problems have been solved. Certainly, on a long-term interval problems of the hypertrophied growth of financial sector should affect (we can see proof of this fact today), but at that moment problems facing to capitalism have been solved and even there was a destruction of world system of a socialism. We must notice, that if resources which have been “extorted" from its territory, would have been directed on repayment of debts created in frames of reiganomics, it is not excluded that its negative consequences would have been compensated. But the system of income reception from emission by the largest banks was so nice, and their role in a state policy was so great (we will remind that traditionally a position of the secretary of exchequer, i.e. the Minister of Finance and the main councilors of the White house in the USA is occupied just with representatives of bank community, not to mention FRS management), that it was impossible to refuse from it.

4. “Financial” capitalism consequences.

The main consequence of this system introduction was the fact that throughout several decades the American economy existed in the conditions of the constant overestimated demand. It could not create under itself corresponding system of manufacture of the blessings requested by the consumers, both material and services. In 2001 the author of the present report has carried out calculation of the American economy according to intersectoral balance for 1998 which purpose was to find the sectors of the American economy receiving "additional" (not having source within the limits of intersectoral resources turnover) source. It was revealed that sector of "new" economy, in which the branches connected with informational economy have been included, and also wholesale and retail trade, occupying approximately 25% of economy of the USA on consumed resources, "gives out" back into economy about 15% (see Drawing 7).

It is clear that the structure of economy of the USA should be changed since then, however "the warp" shared problem remained: the essential part of economy of the USA exists only so far as there is a noneconomical, issue stimulation of demand. To see it is possible on many indicators for example we can on Drawing 8.

As it is well visible, the situation in the American economy began vary strikingly in the early 80s of the last century. But the main indicator of structural crisis of the USA economy of is the following graph (see Drawing 9).

Financial indicators should grow in any normal economy equally – as was observed in the USA economy prior to the beginning of 80s. And then indices have have been divided in two groups, which started to separate from each other with linear speed on the graph with a logarithmic scale, i.e. with exponential speed in practice. The economy with such parametres cannot exist longly – as it demands constant additional resources on rupture "covering".
We will notice that after 2000, when the positive effect of the markets expansion on territory of the former socialistic Commonwealth, apparently, has come to the end and there was a crisis in the share markets, one of two clasters on the graph was again divided. Most likely, it is connected by the fact, that the USA have begun non-market support of separate sectors of the households, directly, passing a consumption sector.
It is simple enough to estimate scale of such support. If we would take a situation of 1998, rupture, as we saw, made at least 10 % from gross national product of the USA, that is, for that period, about 800 billion dollars per year. If we would add growth of state expenses, and also consider all other effects it will be necessary to multiple this figure by about 1.5-2. Thus, the monthly resource thrown to the American economy, should make for this period of 1.3-1.6 billion dollars per year or 110-140 billion per month. As this throw occurs in the USA on the debt mechanism, it should be clearly visible on graphs of a cumulative debt of subjects of the American economy, debts of households and the federal government of the USA (see Drawing 10):

We can see that the order of debt loading growth approximately corresponds to the specified figures received according to intersectoral balance, thus we have received the additional proof of structural crisis in the USA – rates of increase of a debt steadily exceed rates of the American economy increase. Certainly, using the graph analysis it is necessary to consider that at the first stage the effect of depreciation of the credit was significantly more important, than growth of a cumulative debt.
We must also notice that since then the economy of the USA has grown at least in 1.5 times, so today it is necessary to invest approximately 200-250 billion dollars per month to maintain system in rather stable condition.
5. Crisis development mechanisms.
Which consequences may the fact, that 10 % of the economy function only due to emission bring? In case of ceasing the emission, no matter if it is objective or has a special purpose, this part of economy will no more exist. But not only it, because in the course of intersectoral balance this part transfers its extra resource to other sectors of the economy, which should also vanish in such situation. Their size can be evaluated using a coefficient which changes depending on the type of economy and in our case it is around 2,5. So, a significant part of the American economy, not less than 25% according to optimistic estimates and around 35% to pessimistic, exists solely due to the fact that there is an emissional cash flow to support it.
Over the 30 years of the existence of this system the performance indictors of the financial part of the economy have rise significantly, and the financial bubbles and structural disproportions have reached such a scale that the economy could not bear them any more. This fact is expressed in many effects, for example in the fact that recently the market crediting rate stopped reacting on the changes in the discount rate (see Drawing 4). There are serious reasons to believe that the slack in the US economy began some time ago, but it would not be correct to call this slack a recession, as this word is usually used for the definition of cyclic processes in the economy and the contemporary depression has a strong structural character.
But the main thing is that the inflation started growing rapidly including the consumer sector. The official figures are not quite illustrative here as the inflation in the US is lowered significantly both by manipulating the basis for it and by introducing financial “innovations” (hedonistic indexes), and this can be clearly seen from Drawing 12. The real year end figures of the inflation rate are not less than 15%.

Such situation automatically cuts the real consumption in the US for the same 15% as a minimum, which stands for the 10% decrease in GDP (taking into account the fact that around 70% of the US GDP is formed by consumer demand and consumption). And such a fall will continue as long as the emission increase rates will be greater than the economy growth rates, up to the date when the “unnecessary” part of the US economy will be eliminated. And the emission, which is the reason for the inflation, is also impossible to stop as it will lead to immediate death of the corresponding part of the economy.
Attempts to struggle with inflation in style of Paul Walker, i.e. using discount rate increase, are also doomed to accident as in terms of overheated financial part of economy and debt crisis, it will almost immediately lead to repetition of the 1929 scenario. We are to notice that this crisis will be much stronger in comparison with that because in the middle of XX century there were not structural warps in American economy, and now rapid destruction of the structural "outgrowth", which scale would vary from 25% on optimistic to 35% on pessimistic estimations, will precede to similar on scale depressive falling (see Drawing 13).

Let's notice that consumers’ demand observation allows to state an independent estimation of falling of the USA gross national product following the results of the first, tough part of crisis. For this purpose it is necessary to estimate annual growth of a cumulative debt of households (10% from 14 trillion, which is about 1.5 trillion dollars) and to add to them part of demand falling which will occur because of growth of savings. Today their level is about 0, and historical average value makes about 10% (actually, in the conditions of crisis this indicator will be even above), please see Drawing 8, that is still at least 0.8-0.9 billion per year (the tenth part of 70 % of real gross national product of the USA equal approximately to 12 trillion of dollars). Thus, even without falling of real demand from outside budgets of all levels which are also exposed to inflationary pressure, cumulative reduction of annual demand should make at least 2.1-2.3 trillion dollars, or approximately 15% from gross national product of the USA. If to apply to this value the same multiplicator 2.5, we will receive figure on the scale of top border of the range defined above at the rate of intersectoral balance. As at our calculations we used the balance for 1998, it is possible to assume that this growth is caused by deepening of structural crisis over the last 10 years.
We deliberately did not add the effects connected with budgetary consumption to an estimation of potential falling of cumulative demand because compensated by this part of a consumers’ demand which goes on purchase of the import goods for the USA. However, all these specifications influence rather limitedly on the final result.
It is already impossible to stop this crisis – as demand falling, either inflationary, or resource (refusal of emission) will proceed. Thus the scale of structural falling will make at least 25% of present gross national product of the USA (it is already scale of "Great" depression), and it will be followed by depressive falling volume of which can be estimated by Russian experience of the beginning of 90s and the USA beginning of 30s of the last century, which makes 30-40% from gross national product, but already reduced.

6. Conclusion.

As we can see, the fundamental problem of the American economy is presence of a "redundant" part, which «outgrew» for last 30 years due to constant and all time increasing emission stimulation of a consumers’ demand. Today the USA cannot neither finance this part of economy, nor "close" it because it became too great. Theoretically, it would be necessary to recognize this situation and begin a direct anti-recessionary policy, but it is absolutely impossible in view of purely political reasons as such scale of falling of the largest economy in the world makes absolutely impossible for the USA to keep not only role of the unique world leader, but also continuation of existence of a world financial system on the basis of dollar and the American banks. It can cause also rather and rather serious consequences for all world economy (including Russian), in particular, falling of world cumulative demand will make about 20% as result of a tough stage of crisis, however these consequences are beyond a theme of the present report.

Vladimir Rijkov, Alexey Salmin "state Remodelling as a national commitment"

2009-02-27T01:09:00.001+02:00

By development of the constitutional design of a formation sample of 1993 the then political superstrain aspired to the assertion of the domination by means of three practical measures:

- Making fasts of a to dominating role of the president in power system;

- Abductions to parliament and political parties of the subordinate, an auxiliary role;

- Grantings of large powers to regional superstrains in exchange for their political loyalty.

These principles consolidated in the Constitution, have predetermined political developing of Russia in 1990th years.

Having demonstrated readiness for rigid operations, the maiden president of Russia has managed in own way to solve a problem of provision of political stability. The country more did not worry political crises, comparable that happened in August of 1991 or in September - October of 1993. The government formed individually by the head of the state, became loyal to the president an instrument of control over economy and character of reforms. Capabilities of parliament and political parties to influence a policy and to threaten the power of dominative bunch have been considerably diminished. Regional superstrains in moments of rupture (as during campaign for B.Yeltsin's choices on the second presidential term) basically lent support to dominative bunch. Their representing Federation Council successfully blocked unacceptable initiatives basically oppositional to the president of the State Duma.

At the same time at a selected sample piece of political system faults have fast emerged essential, and thus system:

- Potentially complete presidential check over the government formed disregarding results of parliamentary elections, largely was devaluate lack of the propresidential majority in the maiden and second State Dumas. As a result many reforms by years did not receive legislative veneering and were spent (if at all were spent) by means of presidential decrees, and federal budgets were accepted with the significant stock shortage that has largely predetermined a financial collapse in August, 1998;

- Domination in political system of the executive authority (is more exact - separate offices and bureaucracy as a whole) at delicacy of the parliamentary check, a parliament non-participation in government making up, at a restricted freedom of speech, no-after Reformed judicial and law-enforcement systems, aggressive interference in a political life of financial and industrial bunches has predetermined corruption bloom;

- The wide autonomy in many respects forcedly granted regional superstrains, has ensured their political loyalty to the president (rather unfast as have demonstrated events of 1999), but has thus led to shattering of unified legal and economical room of the country, multiple contradictions of the regional legislation federal, widely spread practice of privileges which one received separate regions to the detriment of to national concerns.

Teared domestic, first of all interpanel and interdepartmental, contradictions "executive" (in practice - bureaucratic) the power incapable in such status to come to the consent concerning a development strategy of the country. Weak so the populist and irresponsible parliament consisting generally from the same stem of party fractions. Allout corruption when separate officers and even offices maintain concerns not the states and companies, and separate bunches of influencing and corporations. The wide orgy of a regional legal, political and economical outrage - such sort was acquired by the Russian state to exod of the second presidential term of B.Yeltsin.

As a result the economy worried perennial wane, Russia promptly lost competitiveness and items on international scene, and the reputation of the country in the world became is intolerable the bad.

COMPREHENSION by COMPANY and political class of penetrating crisis of the generated sample piece of political and economical developing has called requirement for vicissitudes. V.Putin became an embodiment of hopes of them. The majority of superstrains and the population as a whole "has trusted" in it, seeing in him of simultaneously guarantor of preserving of political stability, and the person who is not bearing responsibility for the most odious events 1990 (crash of the USSR, a painfull economic reform, events of 1993, a lesion in the maiden Chechen war, a financial collapse of 1998, etc.). The mode of "the retiring and fair explorer», «the effective officer», «the order adherent, but not the enemy of legitimacy and democracy» has not been bundled to the repellent sides of the Soviet season and was alien to the style of a new epoch calling the increasing condemnation, not associating with one of its characteristic social phylums (not "politician", not "democrat", not the communist, not «new Russian» etc.).

The main slogan of new presidency became and there is «a state hardening». Leaning against extremely high popularity, V.Putin and as a whole the political class which has undergone only minute personal fluctuations, have fast and successfully decided a number of commitments on hardening of the political items:

- During parliamentary elections in December, 1999 (and also successful political shunting subsequently) it was possible to gain the majority places in the third State Duma of the Russian Federation. So one of main contradictions 1990 - the contradiction between the presidential cabinet council and oppositional to the president parliament has been removed;

- In 2000-2001 basically the wide political autonomy of regional superstrains and their leaders has been liquidated. Seven federal districts have been for this purpose created and the Federation Council is reformed. There was the significant reconstituting of budgetary funds in favour of federal centre. The large part of agreements and agreements between the federal and regional authorities, yielding to regions those or diverse special privileges, has been terminated. Besides, federal government bodies have acquired the right to dismiss regional parliaments and to release from a post of heads of regions. Last furthermore have lost immunodefence from prosecution in the criminal order.

Two fundamental problems of a preceding period - destructive for the country as a whole the disloyalty of parliament and beyond legitimacy and common sense "state of exercising sovereignty" of regions - were, thus, successfully and are operatively overcome. Basically, the main political promisings, obviously or "by default" V.Putinym's data on choices of 2000, have been executed.

As a result, during the maiden term of presidency of V.Putin in Russia the new political regulations as a matter of fact were generated. Formally - on the basis of the same Constitution of the 1993 which has not undergone any textual fluctuations. For these regulations are characteristic:

- Power focusing in arms concerning the consolidated dominative bunch led by the president;

- A "technical" role of both chambers of parliament, as a whole loyal to this bunch;

- A "technical" role of the government, at high stability of its regular personnel (the cabinet council does not regenerate almost);

- The increased check from dominative bunch over national mass-media (first of all television channels), judicial and law-enforcement systems;

- Fall of a political role and capabilities of regional superstrains, their high loyalty to dominative bunch almost excluding independent politics tricks against a Center.

All these factors together taken, have allowed:

- To bolster high popularity of the working president (including at the expense of active propagation of achievements of the power which has become by a substantial part of the Russian political reality);

- To spend through parliament the major acts earlier blocked by the oppositional majority of the Duma (ground, judicial, labour, pension, tax, energy and so forth the legislation), that has allowed to accelerate economic reforms to create more comfortable conditions for economy revival;

- To ensure recovery of unified legal and economical room of the country, to fracture inter-regional parting layers, to recover the surveillance of federal frames on the places, lost in a preceding period;

- To consolidate foreign policy, having attached it more logical and more consecutive character in the strategic attitude.

Roadability the country as a whole has increased. The chaos and instability remained behind. Better steels to be observed laws, to be going to taxes, to be performed the budget. Economical growth was restarted. All it together with active foreign policy has considerably hoisted international authority and has enriched reputation of Russia in the world.

The new political regulations have appeared much more capable and effective, than former. Nevertheless in its nature and the organisation a number of system defects which one conservation is capable to entail slowdown of rates of growth of the country, and in more long-term future - political crisis with unpredictable consequences is still mortgaged.

Among these defects the cores are:

- The unfinished and opaque gear of continuity of the higher authority. The handover of power from the maiden president of the Russian Federation to the second had spontaneous character, the solution was accepted in a narrow circle of persons, public discussion of policy of the new leader missed. Such sample piece of a handover of power spawns the significant policy risks, making coming to power of each new president by the phenomenon similar to penetrating political crisis. Special though also a private problem there is a lack in the indicating Constitution on the second by turns "fellow-heir" of the president in case something happens to the fellow-heir maiden, - the prime minister, becoming (as it actually and has happened in 1999) fulfilling responsibilities of the president to choices, but not having the right to nominate the head of the government. This circumstance is is especially relevant, that the prime minister in the Russian Federation not only is the heir of a main body of authorities of the president under the law, but also is routinely accepted by public opinion as natural "fellow-heir" of the chief of state;

- In Russia there is no the high-grade political competitiveness which is basic principles of democracy and the relevant stimulant of social development. On changeover of a pseudo-democratic, dangerous competitiveness between "party in power" and «a batch of the former power», in a fever the country in 1990, contest of the democratic parties tendering the alternative designs economical and social development does not come. The role of chambers of Federal assembly, regional legislative assemblies was notably diminished. The significance of political parties, and also mass-media was reduced. Actual degradation of institutions of local government, marginalised local government problems in public and political debates was observed. The company, as a matter of fact, is discharged of discussion of legislative leadership in this range;

- Domination of offices (bureaucracy), characteristic and for a preceding period, was saved and has in some respects strengthened. Process of interdepartmental coordination has emasculated and prolongs to geld many of the declared transformations. The significant corruption at many levels of the power is saved. Growth of a fraction of costs of the state concerning gross national product became one of by-products of domination of bureaucracy. Departmental concerns prolong to dominate over national, that bates the efforts routed on putting in order in the major ranges of life;

- The commitment of compartment of public authority from concerns of the integrated business bunches (IBB) is not decided yet, or of so-called oligarchs. Last now are not so strong systematically to dictate the will of the federal authority or to its separate branches and members. But still it is enough their influencing successfully to lobby the specific concerns and to block any severe attempts of demonopolization of economy. In a number of regions role IBB even has increased, and as a whole for the past three years cores IBB became even richer and more powerful;

- Judicial and law-enforcement systems did not become less corrupt, but thus their administrative dependence has grown. It makes inconvenient a provision task solution in the politician and economy of "fair game rules».

The sample piece of the political system which have arisen for last three years, undoubtedly, is more effective, than previous. However it remains unmodern and still is not capable to ensure fast and translational developing of Russia.

All it predetermines congestive character of a political life at lost capability of the state to respond to calls of time and to be a motor of remodelling of the country. If the Russian political class and company seriously going to respond to calls of the present and to prolong business of remodelling of Russia, rising of competitiveness of the country the problem of inadequacy of the existing state to standing commitments should be realised in all its completeness. As well as necessity of its remodelling. Our state - is not so much today agent of the solution of problems of the country, how much one of these problems, and besides the major.

DIVERSE And the WIDE EXPERIENCE which has been accumulated almost for decade of existence of the reacting Constitution, allows to come to some conclusions and to attempt to tender reference directions of remodelling of the state. Thus a main purpose of tendered reforms are disassembly of those its devices which one slow down country developing, and blanket rising of competitiveness of the Russian state as guarantor of the right and supply contractor of public services.

Speech does not go exclusively about the constitutional reforms. Laws on a broader scale, and in particular laws the cores, it is necessary to change not when it probably and when it is absolutely necessary. Besides it is not necessary to forget, that in the country with enough discordant tradition of the attitude to the right immutability of the basic law - independent value for the sake of which one it is possible to go on specified a victim.

As the main defects shown the past decade (blanket both for maiden, and for the second presidency) and thus enough traditional in a context of the Russian history, it is possible to designate the following:

- Such focusing of the power at «imperious centre» which one assigns to it and excessive responsibility, not always reinforcing its real, and not just the declared authorities;

- Personification of this power which one puts its efficiency in too high dependence on such ephemeral substance as "rating" that forces the power to pay excessively major attention to technics of its keeping up;

- Stock shortage of a political competitiveness at all levels the authorities;

- Stock shortage public and political, including parliamentary, the check over sovereign and the executive authority, in particular over bureaucracy;

- nondivided political and administrative functions in enforcement authorities;

- Blanket institutional delicacy of representative bodies and political parties;

- Chronic stock shortage of national discussion about real problems of the country, alternatives of its developing;

- Incompleteness of building of attitudes in system «a Center - regions - a local government», that spawns dash asided from superdecentralization to supercentralization;

- Lack of the effective gear of "self-attuning" of these attitudes, result ining to that their correction in practice looks as any «blanket pulling» between a Center and regions at silence of institutions of local government;

- Insufficiently accurate isolated public authority members (in all its branches) from the business bunches, result ining to ubiquitous unfair extirpation with competitors with the help of "administrative resource» and in the issue - to collapse of competitive medium, to economy monopolisation.

All it abandons the Russian state (despite indisputable progress of the last years) unmodern, non-after reformed, inefficient and in the end insufficiently competitive in acute extirpation for capitals, technics, human and geopolitical resources.

AT DETERMINING of ROADS of overcoming of system defects it is necessary to solve first of all a question on fate of the reacting Constitution of a formation sample of 1993. Whether it is possible to perform indispensable remodelling of the state without significant constitutional fluctuations?

The answer as a whole - positivegoing. The reacting basic law, at all defects, allows to upgrade the state, not leaving for the frameworks, and, is besides, modern enough for provision of guarantees of basic rights and freedom of citizens, effective activity of government bodies and economical subjects.

Overcoming transferred above defects of existing political system probably by implementation of following measures and the reforms requiring wide and unbiassed discussion:

- One of key questions of remodelling - remodelling of institute of presidency. Many analysts regard necessary to return to V.Putin's which has been put forward in the annual Message to Federal assembly in 2000 the initiative, - about a telescoping of candidates on a post of the head of the state from political parties. Membership of the president in political party could create necessary conditions for a real political competitiveness between batches, enhance a role of batches in political system, deliver the head of the state under effective public control. Such walk could approach essentially the Russian political system to the standards accepted in developed democracies where heads of the states (governments) all without exception are terms of batches and are pushed by batches;

- In order to avoid making up in the latter case (including the heads of all ranks and businessmen from leading sectors of economic activity) it is necessary for authoritative "party in power" of "east" phylum to harden embargoes on membership in batches of officers (state employees);

- It is necessary to ensure legislatively more accurate "delution" of functions, authorities and modes of the president, the government, Management of the president, Security council. For this purpose to elaborate and pass laws on Management of the president and Security council. Rather minor at a high rating of the head of the state, this problem can become crucial under the variated circumstances. Probably, it is necessary to base on these laws following principles: the president - the guarantor of the constitution, the arbitrator, a supreme commander in chief, main "intercessor" for the people which have elected it in the power, its advocate from bureaucracy; the one who forms a government on the basis of political philosophy dominating at present and logic even if personally it not up to the end devides them etc. The government expresses these philosophy and logic, investing them in system practical operations. The management of the president and Security council - its civil and power "headquarters" producing policy of the presidential power and helping it to state political (and not just and not so much administrative) philosophy and areas of activity;

- It is required to yield the concrete answer to the principal points bundled to bridling of offices and the Russian bureaucracy, rising of general efficiency of the executive authority. How to transmute ministers from officers, lobbyists of the offices, into the politicians, aspiring to educe both the branch and the country as a whole, including contrary to will of the officials which are under their kickoff? How to overcome ancient illness of our statehood - impossibility to produce a consecutive government deal in the conditions of continuously going interdepartmental war?

To many in Russia for a long time it is obvious, that the solution of these problems probably only by government making up in unison the president and parliament. The major, it is desirable - at determining of makeup of an office results of the next parliamentary elections should play a main role. The government of the parliamentary majority can be formed within the limits of the reacting Constitution (the conforming design of the federal constitutional law is present in the Duma). Ministers should be exclusive (or as a rule) the politics transited through choices and belonging to this or that batch. Practice of "ministers-professionals" (that is departmental lobbyists without political colouring and motivating) should be finished. Thus it is necessary to introduce institute of professional chief deputies of the ministers ensuring continuity of operating performance of the ministries at political fluctuations.

Essentially new principle of making up of the government of the Russian Federation could help to devide concerns of the ministers-politicians interested in success of the batch on the regular election, from corporate concerns of offices. Politically uniform government could overcome departmental dissociation, produce the genuine governmental policy (on the basis of the party program). Ministers-politicians would struggle with corruption, than present ministers-bureaucrats without delay. Responsibility for effects of the governmental policy would be born by a concrete batch (coalition) that would help originating of normal parliamentary opposition, developing of a political competitiveness. The president in this case would execute a role of the guarantor of stability, having the constitutional capability to generate a presidential ("technical") office in case of any parlamentsko-governmental crisis. Simultaneously with it follows political methods to shun a situation of opposition of the president and the head of the cabinet council. The constitution maintains the conforming gears and authorities of the president:

- For building of more predicted and transparent gear of drive of a sovereign power it is possible to tender the working president in case of its successful re-election for the second term to make the basic statement not only that this term is for it last, but also to invite leading political forces of the country to severe opening-up for a following selective cycle, for the organised and responsible discussion of problems of the country, a telescoping of the balanced alternative development programs, as well as party candidates to the maximum post in the country;

- It is necessary to "make secure", having put into action size standard about a consecutive handover of power in case of disability of the head of the state, its heir etc. To fulfil the responsibilities. To make it basically it is possible, not changing the Constitution, - for example on the basis of a rule educing it federal constitutional or even the usual law;

- It is necessary to encourage a political competitiveness in every possible way. For this purpose, in particular, it is necessary to harden limitations on employment of posts more than on two terms successively. It is necessary to rectify an error enabled by the State Duma and the president which one has allowed the majority of heads of regions to hold the posts to four times successively. It is necessary to encourage in every possible way formation of large mass democratic parties, including oppositional. Probably, it is necessary to return for a while to anonymity of instalments to party cash desks, to warrant to the batches introduced in parliament, wide access to a tele-and to an air on national state teleradio channels;

- System correction of the legislation on batches is required. Conditions for building of fresh consignments should be as much as possible liberalised, and capabilities of the administrative surveillance of this process - are shown to a minimum. Recently accepted political parties law preserves present party system and the characteristic sidesways for it, folds or hinders a runout on a political arena of new political forces;

- Accelerated privatisation of national channels of TV is necessary. This commitment is intoned, but not decided. Behind the state it is possible (though and it is undesirable) to abandon only RTR and "Culture", thus and in them to enhance a role of the public supervisory boards, to remove real steering of ports from under administrative frames. Other national television channels should be privatised or converted to the present public TV warranting peer access to an Aether as party in power (coalition), and opposition. The conforming administration bills are already designed and are in the Duma;

- Was relevant also to encourage a freedom of speech at regional and aboriginal levels. It is necessary to confine legislatively (or at all to embargo) the right of government bodies of all levels to found the mass media, as well as the right subsidize mass-media from budgets;

- To make amendments to the law about Returning to chamber of the Russian Federation, dilating authorities of this main member of the parliamentary check. To dilate capabilities Returning of chamber on realisation of factfindings of queer transactions including the states. To make fluctuations to the legislation on the organisation of government bodies in subjects of Federation and about a local government, considerably dilating supervisory powers of representative bodies in regions and on places;

- It is necessary to return to a question on federal act accepting on parliamentary factfindings, having dilated thereby State Duma and Federation Council supervisory powers. It will allow to create, in particular, the effective gear of reacting on the facts of abuses and the corruption, published in the mass media, today more often remaining without the answer;

- Fluctuation of approaches for administrative reform which one while is reduced to half measures (and even to separate rather dangerous measures) is necessary and is prepared by a state machinery. It is indispensable penetrating and a radical reform of the state members and machinery of state with simultaneous audition of all current legislation about "cleaning" of authorities of the state members and officers. The new legislation on public service should delimit clearly professional work of officers, free from a policy and economic interests, from a line of leading ministries and offices of politicians. Politicians vary with each choices, officers should prolong to work at any political management. All these principles and the new legislation should be designed under the guidance of the public politicians who have transited through choices. The national commission on administrative reform from 10-15 known politicians, on a multi-party ground, led by an authoritative political figure (by analogy with Zhiskar d'Estenom in the European convent) can be for this purpose generated. The commissions should be attached all indispensable authorities and means with simultaneous determining of term of its job (for example calendar year). There are no doubts, that tenders of the commission will get support in the State Duma and can be fast accepted and introduced;

- Consecutive finishing to practical effect of so-called federal reform which one purpose is clear split of authorities and responsibility between a Center, regions and a local government. Thus behind each level of the power the natural profitable radiants allowing in main in full to implement the made fast authorities should be consolidated on a longtime ground. The significant reduction of a fraction of the federal budget in the consolidated budget of the country and drive of the significant volume of incomes to regions and on places should become a necessary condition of it;

- The present Federation Council does not respond commitments of remodelling of the country owing to the weak legitimacy and excessive loyalty of the executive authority. A feedback with regions is as a result lost, the hazard of rasping legislative errors has grown. It is necessary to accept as soon as possible the novel about the order of making up of the Federation Council, providing its election by direct vote by citizens (the conforming designs are in the Duma more narrow);

- The question of amalgamation of regions should be decided very cautiously. Really speech can go about several most obvious events when the attached subject of Federation pronouncedly cannot is high-grade to execute the conforming authorities and when consolidating with stronger the neighbour in practice will bring the blessing to citizens;

- The solution accepted in 2000 on building of seven federal districts was the severe indent pertaining to possible fluctuation of administrative territorial division of the country, and also reduction of the regional legislation in conformity with federal. However the declared purposes are implemented only particulate, including in the field of the legislation (significant contradictions between the legislation of Tatarstan and Bashkortostan and the legislation of the Russian Federation are for example saved). The concept of federal districts and has not received legislative making fast, and functions of ambassadors remain scoured. Moreover, for the last one and a half year in activity of plenipotentiary representations bureaucratic tendencies have strengthened, there is an apparatus growth, ambiguous interference in an economic life of regions and the separate companies.

Now it is necessary to be specified, to the extent practicable preserving of system of federal districts and whether can contribute it in practice in a task solution of remodelling of the state. Otherwise this gear can is definitive to become a constituent of federal bureaucracy, completely having lost the initiating significance;

- For institutialisation the difficult and diversiform attitudes on a line «the state - business - company», first of all in a sector of the economy and social development, it is possible to consider a capability of building of national Advice on economical and to social development where on the parity basis quoters of the state would enter, business associations and trade unions. Discussion of strategic questions of social and economic developing, galling of wide social compromises could become the Advice commitment. Building of such institute could help balance looking up with the solution of such challenges, as the bias between thermal power station and a manufacturing industry, between exporters and the companies oriented on home market, and also problems of the monstrous social lamination which have become by a whip of the up-to-date Russia.

Comprehension of system defects of existing political system and implementation of a complex of longtime measures on their overcoming will allow the Russian nation to receive more up-to-date, open, democratic and in the issue the competitive state.

2009-02-11T04:06:00.007+02:00

Simple and clear cartoon film explaining the elementary terms and economy principles.

To keep, press the right button the reference and choose "to save object as"

RUSSIAN OLIGARCH: necrophage OR THE HEALER?

2009-01-27T00:15:00.000+02:00

When the great revolutionary, the philosopher and anarchist Pierre Zhozef Prudon in 1840 has shocked Paris and the world by the slogan blasting ground «the Property there is a theft!» - yes... So he generally did not mean that property which one the thief has just filched at other citizen and has pronounced the. He meant breaking of "natural death" and legitimised the state assignment of another's materialised labour. (Interested persons can read it «That such the property».)

How among fellow tribesmen and fellow citizens very rich and even shockingly rich person at all times was formed?
Mode maiden. The most healthy collected fighters and went to plunder the enemy. In case of good luck returned with a property pile, and the abrupt chief by the right of an arm, character and command dragged most, sometimes - it is much more. If the tsar - so on a broader scale could become rich from an aggressive campaign. But also warriors who is alive remained, things got hold. More shortly, there was an oligarch or some oligarchs, but blanket material level of the population also rose a little. Gold, tissues, slaves, flocks, upkeep sphere educes also art echoes for money.
Mode of the second. The most healthy collected pioneers (without ties, but with the weapon) and went to run in incult and long-fallow lands. India, either Siberia, or America. These trailblazers were cut with local population, die from a fever, dug gold and melted together a precious arbour. And some lucky mans and toughness-mans wildly grew rich. Drove on the old native land argentum and furs caravans and asked humbly. Became governors, deputies, princes of new lands. And, besides, the material standard of well-being round them and on the old native land rose. Well - there was a gold not were earlier, argentum, an ebony, pies sable abrasive cloths and diamonds, not speaking about overseas tissues and tobacco.
Mode the third. The most enterprising, vigorous, clever, greedy, strong-willed - longly sniffed up air, bowed to a sovereign and borrowed money from merchants. And then put in Urals Mountains production plants, poured copper and cast iron, got weapon manufacturing, burnt a lump charcoal, achieved affixion of peasants to production plants... The bloodsucker! But to it - there was a level ground and peasants with wooden ploughs on margins. And after it, millionaire in gold towers, there was a city, business, production plants, power of growing power.
Mode the fourth. To devise something such that all used, and to you from that on copeck millions dripped. Here so, say, the colonel the Colt has patented and has untwisted a six-warhead revolver. Or Singer, the sly fellow, longly thought - and has patented only a needle with an eye not in heel, and in a spont at an edge. But without it any sewing-machines are impossible! And in the world producers and sellers of sewing-machines unfastened all to Singer, and there was it the multimillionaire. But they, devil take it, hoisted progress: soldiers in the low-cost moulding box burnt sheafs from low-cost revolvers! A civilisation! And all round it worked, were fed, money received!
Mode the fifth. To become an aster in the field of something, that the people like and agree for show to pay. Well-known charioteers in Ancient Rome were richer and most famous than present pop stars: it gold statues sometimes put! But these singers and sportsmen - yield people show, round them huge commands of organizers and service staff are fed, and spectators should exert to earn money for the ticket! That is: they create a kind of business and also life raise the level. Perhaps foolish, but raise: entertain and boost.
Mode sixth. To be hired to a sovereign (to the governor, the president, the government) on a large post for fulfilment something large and necessary. To conquer Crimea. Either caucasus. Or Egypt. Or Armenia. Or to depress revolution in Austro-Hungary. Or in Poland. Thus the commander routinely acquires trophies as the sparrow would acquire the peacock plumes. I.Vo-pervyh, a sovereign and the senate favour to the winner and the multiplier of our lands and our glory many money and good things. Secondly, it is accepted to look through dactyls at the man of courage who has handed over in treasury mass of good, but also not forgotten. Well, the honey flow has given away. But - and itself has become rich, and in treasury and power lost head.
Count Potyomkin was the oligarch! But to Russia ministered and stand smb in good stead!
Menshikov was the thief and the oligarch! And on the emperor and power growth ploughed also the blood did not feel sorry!
Drake has plundered the Spanish colonies so, that the ship from gold in water sank. But a fraction to the queen and treasury has unfastened as it is necessary! England grew rich together with it!
Well and so, when we speak today "oligarchs", we mean people who at us are transferred under the discharge to the third. Captains and holders of the industry, economy.
Here Andrew Carnegie. The king of a steel. At him the American steel industry became heavy-lift and forward in the world. It has organised it, has twirled, has adjusted, co-ordinated. Without it there could not be in any way what he possessed.
Here Krupps. It they have made the German artillery and the German armour awesome and well-known. To them this industry at Germans was on a broader scale in a germ.
Here Nobels. They have found it and have placed money in reconnaissance and development of the Baku petroleum placers, they have organised construction of refineries and petrol carriers, they have created a net of kerosene benches across all Russian empire. And blasting gelatine Alfred Nobel has devised itself! Though than engineers and hard workers under it was more narrow to line. Without Nobel - to Nobel - on site their empires there was an empty place. Nobody worked there, was not fed, nothing operated.
And here the Ivanovo print manufactories. And here the Tula small-arms factories. And here Lensky gold placers. Their holders became oligarchs. So after them business remains.
And all these businessmen - operated hired workers. Also pocketed a surplus value unit. And without them hired workers at all would not have where to be hired and sucked a pad, sitting on a palm tree.
THE BUSINESSMAN IS A SINERGETICHESKY DEVICE OF ECONOMY
Means it is unique the mind, character, capabilities - the businessman will organise people so, that they start in an organised way to work, creating a manufacturing resource base, giving away a yield, raising a material standard of living and the adjoining population of region, and at one with all it enriching the businessman.
Not always at one. Oh not always! And English "walling in" remember, when «sheep have eaten people»? Let the peasants driven from land will take rest, but the wool will bring in the income to new ground landlords. And beggars sharecroppers, and poor almost dead bodies-miners? Wherefore the main law of the businessman - the law of the max lost head, yes?
But - people stained. And economy hoisted!
All all already have perceived.
Let's address to our native Russian oligarchs.
And what they have created? What has arisen for fifteen years such that to them - was not? Did not stand? Did not work? Did not feed people?
ANYTHING!.
And so, misters.
It is that event when the property is theft.
Always was, that the rich man has acquired the oof: let it is severe, artful, bloodsucker, but it made something on the organisation of the business, was a bracing small screw on which one all business was kept, it was it housekeeping a plan, its sending on errands will, its ability to interweave such system of stimulants that people worked to it on advantage.
Russian oligarchs have not created anything.
Russian oligarchs have come on the ready.
They are variags. Aggressors. A landing from Mars. Impostors.
Always the oligarch acted as the organizer of the relations of production producing its status. At us: there were no relations of production, and the future oligarch in producing the future status did not participate in any way.
And when fulfilling money of the parent-oligarch the little fool-pseudo-democrat from the next newspaper tries to tell, that «the good oligarch» «has created the transparent company», «feeds the people», «pays the greatest salaries» and «attends to philanthropy», I would like to ask it: so that the oligarch has created, except papers? Wherefore «campaign building» is in our event purely term of law meaning transition of the property from one arms in others, from one steering in other, only and all.
Therefore it is not a pity to me of Khodorkovsky.
It is a pity to me, that together with it all Russian "oligarchs" do not sit.
It is a pity to me of those whom they have plundered.
It that - walked with geological prospecting on a taiga? It was guzzled by biting insects, he dragged half a year a backpack in forty kilogrammes, slept in tent, took samples?
It pushed the go-anywhere vehicle through a mud, put tubes, bored driven wells, got tank cars? Put a piece of iron, dug the beds under houses? Designed tube rolling, discovered rates of arc welders? It punched reconnaissance and development plans, knocked out funds?
The Russian petroplacers at the Soviet power yielded more naphthas, than today. Also have been worn less out in the equipment. Also substantiate in itself work of all people, and lay in the land which conquered and has been run in by all people.
It concerns and to Norilsk nickel. And to Krasnoyarsk aluminium. And so on.
If Khodorkovsky has organised reconnaissance of fields, both boring, and the equipment of placers, both a transportation network, and delivery of hard workers, - is shorter, would create what to it was not, let naphtha in land is hidden and was, of course, is there would be an another matter. It is its work has twirled business, it he has managed to create to itself (himself) a status.
Allow? And if tomorrow annihilate all oligarchs - that, naphtha to go will cease? And if they and at all were not - that, naphtha without them would not be?
What is in Russia today such that would not be without oligarchs? And anything.
Misters. Their "property" existed to them and without them, is created irrespective of them, and all its founders, all is absolute those who anyhow the work participated in building of "property" of present oligarchs, at this building about the future oligarchs did not suspect, in a sort no them had, under their slightest influencing were not.
Also note: anywhere in an open press, never, on how much - the information on how have created statuses our oligarchs did not slip. Whence a seed capital? How gained money? How participated in auction?
If you the talented and fair businessman - that to be ashamed: present and tell, how you, the simple Soviet engineer or the doctor, became the billionaire. Admire the world with the genius and good luck! If you the swindler in the world of swindlers and in days of swindlers - so not to you to sing about the right and morals: you have gone to games where only one right and only one morals - to snatch the most major chunk. Has snatched? - Well done Now it at you have snatched together with cogs? - Means, any more the good fellow.
Reformers and oligarchs wanted so: we steal only once, and we will live then fairly. A horse-radish to you. It is enough to steal once to become the thief. Obscurely? You steal single-passly, and the thief for life.
Misters oligarchs. All of you thieves. Dexterity and cynicism you have stolen that is a materialised labour of all - all - the people.
«It is impossible to scrap privatisation results» - means in transfer on colloquial Russian: who that has stolen - yield all we will abandon the stolen. I iterate: to seed not that people have created - and that to collect back - back to collect! - that thieves to themselves have pocketed! The odds is, impudent idiots?
Reformers thought that? What is the oligarchs will start to manage in a market way, more rationally, efficiency and is civilised, than at the sphacelated socialism. But reformers in the illiteracy have mixed liberalism with anarchy, and the market with vulgar sotsial-Darvinism.
Oligarchs, in full accordance with objective laws of economy, have jerked on a straight line to the max lost head. Also began to tear and guzzle that remains from the USSR.
He is Henry Ford - Maiden could create the civilised market, a formation in a complex production plants with pipelines, hospitals and kindergartens for children of the hard workers. Behind Ford there were the decades of class battles shot by national guards of strike, the lock-outs broken by crow bars of an arm of finks, a working career from the bottom, business building by the arms and a condanguinity continuity with a native land.
If you compare 1990 with 2004 on all main economic indicators it is clearly visible, that manufacturing wears out, the equipment does not regenerate, bowels are exhausted, delivery capacity more low, than was, and mad money merges from domestic economy abroad.
Who there was fed by liver Prometey?
The oligarch is without delay fed by a body of the USSR, rather than resuscitates it.
Its manufacturing was to it, both worked better, and was maintained more carefully.
Workers with whom the oligarch "feeds", actually feed him: to it and without it they worked too, and lived better.
"Philanthropy" to which one the oligarch attends is an insignificant percent of money which one the oligarch has stolen at the state as a tax dodging.
That is. The oligarch as has created nothing that, but was the genius of consumption.
RUSSIAN OLIGARCH - NOT CREATOR, BUT THE CONSUMER READY
Its essence is destructive, destructive, dismantlinge.
It has been called and created by an epoch and system of disassembly of the Soviet socialism. To change for itself former system! - here there was its first purpose. And further supposedly itself somehow will go.
As has gone - you observe.
THE ESSENCE OF RUSSIAN OLIGARCHY IS CRIMINAL, -
Because any oligarch will not tell, where it has taken money for purchasing of the milliard operations below a market price, and to whom has bribed in what moulding box to receive a tidbit. Etc.

The oligarch likes Native land, and this love a constituent includes love and a capability of its robbery. So the predator can invite in restaurant the rich lady on at it select money.

Autumn colours western EDEM

2009-01-25T00:52:00.000+02:00

Some Ukrainian politicians and, first of all, the president, try to convince «small Ukrainians» that the West is something like Paradise, or Edem as still it is accepted to name a mythical place where to eat and drink it is possible «on requirements», as in the CPSU program. And, that is especially important for our inhabitant, not especially troubling itself thus job. Know, lay to itself under a cherry, look, how bees bear nectar, and curds and pile contents by itself fly to a mouth. Do not forget only in time it to open. Whether so it?

Capitals have moved on the East

Really, many at us, and in neighbouring countries have got used to look at EU and the USA as to the Earth Promised, forgetting, that there there are many unpleasant things: unemployment, poverty, criminality etc., etc. And rather a life high level is paid by intensive work in which there is no place to smoke breaks and, especially, absences «on a beer irrigator». But the main thing, appears, at all in it.

Today in economic there are shifts which on the effect on all planet can be compared unless to opening of America and followed after this «revolution of the prices» in Europe. The greatest colonial empires Spain and Portugal, originally having won on a robbery of stocks of gold and silver, have soon appeared poor and broken, for centuries having left with a world scene, and on the foreground there was Holland and the Great Britain.

Today we observe a picture, paradoxical image having something in common with that which was born in XVI-XVII centuries. The West expected, that the main prize from globalization's processes will get to it. But now other appears. The capital in a pursuit of profit has moved on the East.

And how not to move, if there, especially in China, enormous resources enough the formed, disciplined and cheap labour. And the ruling handheld computer ensures stability. As a result Celestial already today it is possible to name new «world workshop», and Shanghai on eyes turns to the third, after London and New York, the financial centre of the world.

When one of acting deputies of the Chinese parliament at the last International economic forum in Davos have asked, why Chineses do not purchase more than the American goods (as is known, on the average the Chinese postpones, not spending, half of incomes) the Chinese deputy has answered: «Chineses save up the today's expenditure for tomorrow, and Americans spend the tomorrow's savings today». Differently, the Chinese member of parliament has said that at many for a long time already in mind: China has the future, and the United States it have lost.

To the "Chinese" and the "Indian" Asia consumer goods and home appliances manufacturing has left. Many branches of mechanical engineering, including manufacturing of cars leave. As Russian expert Sergey Karaganov speaks, the large part of labour-consuming industrial production of the world, and also manufacturing of new technologies and knowledge will continue to move there. That is there will pass still ten years and many traditional industries in the USA and Europe almost does not remain.

As a result the West will have a mass of social and economic problems. More correctly, they have already appeared. In economy of the developed countries the large part of old branches does not maintain a competitiveness to the cheap Chinese goods, visible Russian economist-neoliberal Evgenie Yasin marks. People, clearly, purchase that is cheaper, but, simultaneously, qualitative enough.

Fast rates India, which national economy in greater degrees, than Chinese increases economic power, is focused on manufacturing of services in high technologies, in particular, in the field of modern telecommunications and the software. In Bangalore, for example, where large Indian IT Contractors are possessed, switching on Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services and Wipro Technologies, and also many western IT Companies, in technological sector is now taken more than 200 thousand persons. In India consider, that on quality of scientific and technical developments Bangalore any more does not yield to the well-known Silicon Valley in the USA.

It is not necessary to forget about economy of Japan also. Besides, Taiwan and South Korea concern number powerful economically the countries.

The big possibilities the format of the states «АСЕАН + 3», consolidating members of Association of the states of South East Asia opens, China, Japan and South Korea. This organisation has a potential to become the greatest trading block of the world, having eclipsed the European Union and North American association of free trade. Deepening of communications between the countries «АСЕАН + 3» as observers mark, is a large diplomatic defeat of the USA, hoping to use the organisation of Asian-Pacific economic complementation ( for restriction of growth of the Asian economic regionalism at the expense of America.

The West has lost historical prospect

The centre of world capitalism as it is visible, moves from the North America and Europe to Asia. If in 2005 the western countries manufactured 50 % of world gross national product by 2020 40 % are expected. Power of economy of the West has considerably weakened. Changes are already visible, as they say, an unaided sight. We consider till now, that economic "motor", are the USA, Germany, the Great Britain and France. At us it is accepted to consider acquisition any mean small companies in the West as the higher criterion of success. We with pride calculate every day, on what share of percent the turnover with the EU countries has increased. We consider, at all not being interested, that there we sell. And it would be necessary, as it, mainly, at all production with a high share of an added value.

But the most terrible roots that we do not wish to see that the West has lost historical prospect. That is we meaningly try to "attach" Ukraine, and on the second and even the third roles, to the system which does not have special chances even in foreseeable prospect, let alone the greater.

Actually, to be again "motor", it is necessary for western countries to be overhauled, make new innovative break. As, for example, was with transition from a steam-engine to an internal combustion engine, or with the advent of the Internet. But to tell, when it will happen and whether will happen in general, very difficult. After all such transition can be born and in the east. At least in the same India, with its Bangalore.

«Burden of the white person» the USA any more under force

While unique "innovation" of the West is frankly imperialistic policy of management of George Bush. And special changes it is not expected. As is known, John McCain - the best friend Miho Saakashvili, and Sarah Peylin admits, that could use the nuclear weapon for the sake of protection of Georgian "democracy".

However "innovations" such have led to what not on Senka there was a cap. Costs for the aggressive policy have exceeded country financial possibilities. For military needs in 2009 financial year which begins in the USA since October, 1st, it is designated by 612,5 billion dollars that constitutes more than half of military costs of all other world.

It is the hugest sum even on scales of the USA. Especially, if to consider, that real manufacturing departures from the country. As a result the goods are delivered from China and other Asian countries. Clearly, capitals there leave, and world claims still are in Washington. But «burden of the white person» the USA any more under force.

Actually, the present financial crisis originating from the USA is connected with these processes also. It was necessary is artificial to support reeled economy. Have for this purpose made cheaper the credit. Americans have rushed to a whirlpool of acquisition by the real estate. When there were evidences of inflation, and the euro began to supersede dollar in the world markets, a discount rate has been decided to hoist. As a result the credit became expensive, and those who has received it earlier, could not settle up. So the hypothecary crisis which has smoothly outgrown in financial and covered, in different degree, all world was born.

Of responsibility of the USA for present crisis has reminded on September, 22nd German chancellor Angela Merkel. She has declared, that the USA and the Great Britain tolerated financial markets which did not wish to undertake voluntary control obligations. Then in many European Union countries the decision was accepted to accept administrative actions in bank sector, in particular to enter certain rules of administration of loans. To support such measures promised also Washington. But when business has reached their realisation, in America have reversed.

«There was an arrangement, - Angela Merkel has told. - Europe enters such measures, and America too. All of us have honesty made, and Americans have told: without us. So it is impossible to act in the international relations». To disentangle it is necessary now to tax bearers not only in the United States, but also in many other things the countries as the world financial market is a uniform organism.

And, if the index Ukrainian PFTS since May of this year has fallen to 70 % to blame for it it is necessary, first of all, the gone too far American capital. Instead, president Victor Yushchenko has gone to Washington as the People's Deputy from the Batch of regions Vadim Kolesnichenko suspects, to ask from the American establishment "kindly" on a power variant of the decision of present political crisis in Ukraine. Obviously to found in Ukraine the dictatorial regulations similar to volume which has established in Georgia Miho Saakashvili.

But not only with an index it became bad. Here the citation from German «Frankfurter Аllgemeine» from September, 18th: «Basically the country possesses numerous agrarian and industrial resources, but industrial production in the last months in the uniform image has failed. In August in an annual basis it was reduced to 0,5 %. The market counted on a gain in 4,7 %. Besides it, there is a big problem with inflation. Consumer costs in an annual basis have grown in August on 26 %, purchasing - on the whole 47 %, and trade balance in July has appeared sharply negative. The country currency has against the dollar depreciated for the last weeks on 9 %».

Certainly, the policy is got mixed up in an event also. However today it would be desirable to ask: and who has thought up so-called «third tour» presidential elections in 2004? The answer is simple: those who wished to give power «silent American» to Victor Yushchenko, and are all of them in the same place - in Washington. The same misters "have taken care" of parliament dispersal in 2007 and realisation of early election therefore the country was loaded in deep political and social and economic crisis.

«To deliver America into place»

«In 1998 US State Secretary Madeleine Olbrajt has told about the country: ‘ We the irreplaceable state ’. However the USA have appeared quite replaceabler the state. Europe, China, Russia, Latin America both other regions and the countries on the sly undertake measures, effect if not the unique purpose which will deliver America into place», - the Chinese newspaper «China Daily» wrote. In turn the American research fund «RAND Corporation» claims, that China by 2020 considerably will amplify and will turn to the key player on global space.

In a more comprehensive sense it is necessary to speak about break and in economy and the politician which happens in the countries of East and Southern Asia. And, if we wish to live normally, strategy of "the Euroatlantic choice», on which crazy about the president, and strategy of advancing economic and political rapprochement with the advanced East which on eyes turns as Sergey Karaganov notices, in «the new West» is necessary to us not. Certainly, maintaining thus at sufficient level of the relations with the European countries.

And not to forget, that the spring and summer of the West have already passed. Now western Edem it is painted in sad colours of autumn. Behind it the winter … will come

Etudes on macroeconomic.

2009-01-23T12:15:00.001+02:00

When I read textbooks on macroeconomic, to me the course of lectures on psychiatry which I have heard in a youth is recollected, being the student of medical college. More often to me the classical kind of infringement of cogitative activity under the name "paralogic thinking" is recollected. It is such way of a reasoning as in a known joke: "the box square, means in it the round lays. Time round, means the orange. Well and time orange, means it an orange!"

Do not trust? Then I will result well-known all a vital situation: in one country have made for example one million cubes of business wood, have cast one million tons of pig-iron and have rolled up billion jars pork canned stewed meat and dairy condensed milk on a hunger case. We will admit, that all it costs billion dollars and makes gross a national product. Through pair tens years of GNP of this country has increased five times. Notably, on four billion it has been made erotic massages, manicures, pedicures, packings of hair and make-ups and on billion it is served visitors in peep-shows and top loess-cafe. Pig-iron, condensed milk and canned stewed meat have imported from abroad in wooden boxes which used instead of wood that have not cut and have not sawed. Have paid as usually dollars. Dollars have printed much that has sufficed on all.

What does the author of the normal textbook of macroeconomic in this case should explain to me? It should me show on fingers why in the country became unprofitable to make wood, pig-iron, canned stewed meat and condensed milk; why instead of them began to make erotic massages and why trading partners still accept for payment paper dollars and give for them canned stewed meat and condensed milk though these dollars except erotic massage are not provided by anything not so.

Instead the macroeconomic textbook explains to me, that the national income makes set of the goods made in the country and services in dollar expression, and erotic and make-upes dollars differ nothing from pig-iron, wood and meat-and-milk. And any children on the Internet tell to me about Bretton-Vudsky system about which in the textbook gu-gu, and swear mum, that if not it anybody these dollars would not take for any money.

Well it is fine, the author of the textbook - the diplomaed economist and the big scientist, we will believe to it and it is esteemed further. And further the big scientist writes about the offer of money, the mechanism of creation of a cash, the credit animator and obligatory norms of reservation for liquidity maintenance. We will admit, that when all country regularly pours pig-iron, saws wood, grows up pork and choped it in a canned meat, the obligatory norm of reservation would make like as 10 percent from the deposits of commercial bank put on the interest-free contribution in Central bank of the country.

Now we will imagine, that in the course of rendering and reception of erotic massages, manicures and make-ups the country population has fairly got hungry and wishes to have dinner nourishingly. But canned stewed meat and condensed milk from Greece as ill-luck would have it have not delivered, because Greeks have eaten her. And the too have not twirled, because Greek for the time being sufficed. And then under laws of the market the grub sharply raises in the price. Hungry managers, brokers, striptease performers and visagistes headlong rush in bank and without remainder take down all reserve cash to buy to devour. Naturally, according to the logic of the author of the textbook of a cash suffices only ten percent of the investors, come running the first. Other crowd drive away, while Central bank quickly will not print out of the missing sum somehow to feed the population - if not canned stewed meat though резаной with a paper with the image of the guarantor and watermarks.

All described above happens actually, is called as macroeconomic and it is possible.

There is a question to the author of the textbook: what mechanisms are somehow to counterbalance available GNP structure, that is to create comprehensible balance between real sector of economy and erotic? And here it appears - and authors of the textbook state it as an axiom - that any special mechanisms at all and are not necessary, because there is a universal mechanism under the name "market". The market is a mechanism of a global equilibration of a supply and demand, in which result the population makes that uses the greatest demand to receive the maximum profit. The enterprise profit appears the unique purpose of its existence is like already just as twice two four. Who with it does not agree - that clinical idiot.

Well it is fine still, it is good when the market has counterbalanced structure of economy with accent on pig-iron moulding, wood and canned stewed meat and with a damage for the erotic massage, which everyone can make to itself (himself) houses independently if very much will press. And what to make if an erotic component of economy has brought to nothing all real sector? And after all you will not forbid! For in a free society freedom of each manufacturer to make that to it will take in head, when will take in head and in any places legislatively taken away for this purpose is it the first and an inalienable law, and is not simple so, and according to the constitution. All that contradicts the constitution, is illegal. Accordingly, if in the textbook on macroeconomic will write, that the market law is a fiction, and that the manufacturer is obliged to make that that is required to a society not only today, but also tomorrow and in ten years, instead of that for what can be cut down grandmas directly now such textbook will unequivocally start up under a knife in all circulation.

But how to be in a situation when the deep sexual satisfaction stimulated the raised appetite, and to satisfy it there is nothing, for all population has taken a great interest in rendering of expensive and profitable sexual services, and the cheap popular meal in the Chinese buffet suddenly has unexpectedly ended? It appears, very simply. Such situation designate a word "crisis". At occurrence of this situation all start to panic amicably, nobody knows what to make, and all pretend, what even did not assume, that the such can happen.

Is useless to search also in the macroeconomic textbook such backbone for economic concept as bullshit. I will short explain an essence. We will admit, I live in five-storey building, and on the ground floor there lives the drunk by name of Petrovich with two daughters. Petrovich makes sour every day, on what lives not clearly. Once Petrovich comes to me and asks to lend to it on a wedding dress with a veil and three boxes of vodka with snack - the daughter in marriage to give out. With the promise to give within three years with monthly payment, under 20 % annual. Certainly, knowing Petrovich, I politely refuse to it, for I know, that neither a debt, nor percent on it to me сроду not увидать in a kind of the specific biography of the client.

Then Petrovich goes to commercial bank, and there it is given out easily by the desirable credit, the truth any more under 20, and under 40 percent, and Petrovich leaves in deep hard drinking. In the meantime the commercial bank packs promissory notes of five thousand such Petrovich in to a highly remunerative valuable paper and throws out it on a securities market where it buys, well for example, Banquo Tsentrale Italjano.

The chairman of this bank Chezare Lohanuchchi knows nothing the nobility about credit history of five thousand not drying out Petrovich. Therefore it, of course, a little chicken out for its Italian liver prompts to it, that correlation between profitableness of the financial tool and its risk rightholding opposite that which is thirsted by all other parts of an organism. But eventually greed wins, and a desired paper place in an investment portfolio with hope of that that the manager of credit department Mosintsestbanka has checked up credit history Petrovich and was convinced, that the debt with percent will be returned in time.

For Petrovich to start to pay under the credit, it is necessary to recollect at first, that it it in general once took, and for this purpose it would be good to sober up a little at least to begin with. But this question excites the chief of credit department Mosintsestbanka Kidalova and the chairman of same bank Razvodilkina least because they had time to remove the grandmas in Italian liras, lyres have translated in dollars, and it is possible already and not to search for dollars. After a while we learn from news about financial crisis in Italy. All above described process well-known in scientific circles under the name "financial globalisation" which is a part of the general globalisation of economic.

And here we again face paradox for the essence of the given macroeconomic phenomenon quite precisely speaks the term "bullshit", but this term as it is sad, at all does not belong to the dictionary of a macroeconomic science. And how it can belong to it even if the word "globalisation" to it not still belongs? In one textbook you will not read about the one who and as it is capable to supervise globalized economy in which the most powerful subjects of the market do business in the heterogeneous legislative environment, and their business just and was built so that this heterogeneity has helped them to leave from the governmental control and from tax obligations to receive superprofit. If such possibility was not available, all this globalisation would be not necessary to anybody, traditional international trade would suffice.

Certainly, in economy there is such concept as "investor's risk". But here again somehow - it is not written in the macroeconomic textbook, that risks happen very different. For example, happens, that all fairly ploughed, but business has not gone. But during the latest times it appears is much more often, that all business of the counterpart initially found room in a set of procedures, on which at you it is possible to borrow with the promise to return much more then to be washed off with money. Such business transaction is called in popular speech by a word "have thrown". That circumstances, that one participant of transaction is in Senegal, and another in Toronto, strongly facilitates process and causes by a life of weight of imitators. Therefore in this case it is necessary to speak "have not so simply thrown", and "have thrown globally".

If only bunko was an annoying exception to the rules then it is still fine. If at Mosincestbank have withdrawn the licence, to the Italian bank have paid damages, and Kidalov and Razvodilkin have sent on a tree felling together with Petrovich I would not write this article. But when manufacturing bullshits is put on an industrial stream in the stronghold of capitalism, in Connected, it is terrible to tell, States of America when impudent a bullshit is called as "a financial product", and its continuous sale by a dense stream is built in in world economic system should find this mechanism though any reflexion in economic textbooks?

For example, commercial bank Washington Mjuchual gives out the hypothecary credit under house purchase to the hard-working Mexican with excellent credit history. The bank is assured, that José-Carlos will not pump up and will pay all sum, therefore the credit to it stands out under 6 difficult annual interest rates (that means approximately two costs of the house paid for twenty years) and such credit is called as top-quality.

And then the smoked negress comes to the same bank from a ghetto by name of Shanikva, not working in the life day, short of prostitution and buying up of the stolen. She is a single mother of four children, and the State of Louisiana to it pays the grant to each child separately because at them different daddies from whom three are imprisoned for a long time, and have killed one one year ago. Shanikva the credit too wants. As the borrower does not have either credit history, or brains, and in all organism only genital bodies the risk of nonpayment considerably increases regularly work. In bank it understand, but the credit all the same give, but any more under 6 Mexican percent, and under 17 Negro. This credit also is called as not so top-quality, and second-grade. Certainly, Shanikva it is especially violet, under what percent it will not pay money under the credit - under 17 or under 117. She simply wants поплатить couple of months, then quickly refinance the house, to pull out from under it эквити in pair thousand, to buy gold earrings and the old car and to go to mum in Mississipi, and further though the grass not to grow.

In the meantime, Washington Mjuchual l which has issued Shanikva the second-grade credit, packs all second-grade credits into highly remunerative securities (well and чё there, after all seventeen, a pancake, percent!) also sells them Cheiz Manhattan to Bank. And already from it they are bought by our old acquaintance Chezare Lohanuchchi who is assured that Cheiz Manhattan bullshit does not trade. And it on the of the rights because in textbooks of economy neither about Shanikva, nor about second-grade credits it is written nothing. In textbooks all participants of a market exchange are guided by the Protestant ethics, all the extremely fair and decent, on that all system and costs. Will not fall Yet.

Naive Chezare has faced rather severe rule "caveat emptor", which everyone learns on own skin. This rule says that let the buyer thinks of how not to run on a bullshit. Therefore before each purchase he should to itself order as in army: "to Stand! To be afraid!". But the manufacturer has the right to make anything you like, whether it be the commercial credit, the hypothecary loan, erotic massage and other "financial products" and to sell the rights to reception of dividends on these in the form of securities. And as the buyer of these papers will be the rights to realise, it it, the buyer, a problem. Therefore and caveat emptor. And if it in time not "caveat" it already any and not "emptor", and natural loser, also have dissolved it correctly.

All would be not so badly if the above described subtleties were fairly and are in detail described in textbooks on economy. Rules have the right to be the most rigid but if they are iron registered on them all the same it is possible to play and somehow to predict a situation.

But unfortunately, concepts "bullshit", "loser" and "distributing" do not meet in economic dictionaries because regular check of conscientiousness of intentions of participants of the market does not keep within the conceptual device monetaristic economy, and its some apologists even now piously believe, that the fat layer of speculators in the market never can cause an economic crisis, especially planetary scale, that the market settle and all will feed all.

Certainly, procedures of check of conscientiousness of intentions of participants of the market are established federal and USA's by the legislators which most part never in a life opened textbooks on macroeconomic. But as they and their close relatives - people rather well-founded also the procedures regulating the market, are under construction rather in unusual way. They are under construction so that I could not throw the bank belonging to the brother of the senator. Therefore the senator spends the law on which I can receive on credit without pledge no more than 400 dollars. 400 dollars are that black did not shout, that them discriminates on colour of a skin. You want the credit without pledge - here yours 400 dollars, you want more - give as a deposit the house. And if you will not pay, the bank will select at you all house, and not just the sum of not paid debt.

But the bank belonging to the brother of the senator, can put off Shanikva's debts in the form of a highly remunerative paper to everybody, though to the same Italian bank. Let then unfortunate Chezare goes to Louisiana to sell Shanikva the house at half price.

Here so somehow also it turns out, that poor people cannot make on rich copecks, but rich gain money on poor without problems. At first lend unfortunate, killed by god Shanikve, and then Shanikva debts without problems sell. As a result there is such unpleasant thing as inflation. The word "inflation" is translated as "inflation". Well, it is correctly translated, after all the clear has put - have inflated, and repeatedly, that is for all length of the credit animator.

And how the macroeconomic textbook suggests to struggle with this fatal phenomenon? And here, all right:

1. Change of a discount rate of loan percent Central bank;
2. Change of norm of reservation;
3. Release of the state securities (anybody yet has not forgotten state credit obligations?);
4. Central Bank operations in the open market;

If all previous has not helped the patient, the press of the above-named office (in this plan causes interest there is no time to provide the sounded offer a missing dollar cash with forces of Perm printing house Goznaka) joins on all power.

There is still, of course, a state tax policy, but it already as a matter of fact not macroeconomic, but the political regulator which it is frequent can worsen only a situation, definitively having finished real sector.

Well and on snack, nationalisation of financial institutions and a part of corporations after which the macroeconomic textbook can be thrown out safely in a garbage can together with adherents of a monetary paradigm, its written.

But earlier than all these not palatable things have happened, really it was impossible to make the elementary analysis: to look, what rates commercial banks give out credits? With what speed capitalisation of financial institutions is inflated? And if these rates five times as much exceed growth of real sector of economy for previous year after all it is clear, that 80 % of credits will not give never, and just for these percent capitalisation somewhere will be blown off. Where exactly it will be blown off, beforehand it is not known, how in game "musical chairs" it is not known, in what sequence of an ass of participants will fly by between seats.

Surprisingly, but until when in air the ominous silence hangs, all feverishly give out and receive credits and do not believe, that music will sometime come to an end. And can be and trust, but after all the senator the hand cannot spend the law on which its brother-banker cannot make good grandmas on Shanikva and Petrovich!

Such feeling results, that in the world there are two realities.

One are macroeconomic textbooks to which it is written as to provide uninterrupted circulation of money and an exchange of the goods and services during rather quiet times. In them the make-up lays an equal layer on all face, and the market - well pure panacea and paradise on the Earth.

And the second - in which really there are both bilks, and louts, and distributings, and bullshits, and speculators. But after all - what nevertheless force of a printing word! While bunko has not entered into textbooks as a part of modern economy, all for some reason think, that it - the exception to the rules, and collisions created by it have private character.

And even when circles on the water, started up by speculators, grow till the sizes of a tsunami, passing from private character in global, anybody still does not call things by their proper names, for it is equivalent to loss of the person. Instead of shouting "Have thrown! Have plundered! Return our money! To the answer of thieves!", shout "Crisis! Save! Help!". And the state redeems at financial institutions puffed up papers for cash dollars to continue crediting process without which all economy will stop. And than puffed up the cash which has been laid out by the state, one леший knows. It would be desirable to hope, what not debts Shanikva and Petrovich.

But an essence of my article at all in that to talk about macroeconomic, and in discussing basic principles which define it. These principles are individualism and a competition. Individualism means the right of the businessman to make all that is not forbidden under the law exclusively for the sake of own profit. The competition means struggle against other businessmen for a place under the sun and money of the customer.

The last means, that in a prize there will be that subject of the market who takes on it a ceiling price at the minimum investments, that as a result will give the maximum profit. Certainly, sale a bullshit, that is bunco is that business which gives a maximum have arrived to the shortest time. The following on profitableness business is already mentioned erotic massage. It is a high time to write it is unique the true economic formula reflecting a modern condition of economy:

Individualism + the Competition = Bunco with erotic massage

When at the closing stage of reorganisation the descendant of the author of "Destiny of the drummer" offered Russia market system in that kind in which it exists in the liberal countries, he has for some reason forgotten this formula to draw on a board, and Russians had to remove it empirically.

The market and individualism are private displays known Marx dyads "life and consciousness". Individualism is a consciousness, ideology of the person living in the liberal country. The market is a social and physical mechanism by means of which the individual psychology and general ideology of individualism is realised. If it is short, it is arrangement of people to sell each other products of the work, and success of sales and purchases is the unique purpose of existence of the individual and a unique measure of its vital success and the public status.

The market which has affirmed as consciousness of the person is a condition of soul when the person hides from others and even from itself, that it - a ruthless predator whom the profit interests only. Instead it convinces itself (himself) and others, that it works for the blessing of the consumer and all society as a whole.

In this myth long time Americans trusted, this myth without a moment's hesitation was accepted by Russia in the end of reorganisation in quality of a new ideal, and only when "bunced economy" has led to global crisis, Americans have understood, that it is necessary to change something urgently. Meanwhile to begin with, they have changed the white president on black, and many seriously hope, that it will help them to solve all problems.

What for the trade secret is necessary.

Trade secret it is not simple custom of business dealing. It is a creed of any businessman, an integral part of a cult of private business. Time-honoured custom to hide the business from extraneous eyes gives superfluous confirmation to that fact, that the satisfaction of requirements of the buyer who has come on a commodity market and services, is only the collateral purpose of a market mechanism. Its main purpose as Charles Makrs has proved, the satisfaction of requirement of the businessman in reception of the greatest profit is, it is unimportant in what way and what price for a society as a whole...

Recently the Internet annals has replenished with such heart-breaking history:

In one computer firm of an average manner there was a practice to put in a box with the computer the short description of its characteristics on a simple language - for sellers (have typed teapots). And here the spiteful client once rushes, with the computer bought recently and demands immediately to return money, showing the piece of paper which has been found out at the bottom of a box. The piece of paper said: "Motherboart a shit, video adapter a sediment." Slip into lout ".

In this case the enterprise trade secret - real characteristics of its goods - primordially Russian невзначаем became known to the buyer and has caused its just anger. The case, of course, funny and outstanding but if to rummage in an essence it is possible to draw a conclusion, that the trade secret is the law rather respected by a society, on which those who humbug smb, under the law is no by the rights to learn who and as them humbug smb. Legitimacy of this law still it was never called into question as everyone always hopes faster, adroitly and is the deepest move up near , and thus to save from an encroachment own vulnerable part, carefully keeping as fiduciary its diameter, a step of a carving and orientation in space.

It is possible to object certainly, that trade secret observance has also a positive side. That it is necessary in competitive struggle. We will admit, any firm has groped good price strategy and has learnt to buy more cheaply raw materials, to sell the goods more expensively and does not hasten to share this knowledge with competitors that is why wishes to keep as fiduciary the sums of transactions.

Whether but this company makes the best production on a price and quality parity? After all if the market economy purpose really is the best and uttermost satisfaction of requirements of the buyer the competition should proceed in the tideway of open struggle for the cheapest and qualitative goods, instead of through impudence of the shopkeepers, which results it is impossible to advertise before public that have not thrown stones, especially to show to competitors that they from fury not cheeky and have not started to arrive precisely also.

Legal and sacral a trade secret deprives of fair businessmen of possibility to catch the dishonest competitor who has swindled the supplier or the buyer or has bribed the authorities to leave from taxes or has done still any dirty tricks which have allowed it to receive more than profit than on the average on branch. Thus, competitors too are compelled to make dirty tricks under cover of a trade secret if they wish to be kept in business.

To hide fair transactions in general there is no need. After all if any party does not abuse trust another or a lack of its knowledge, the price and conditions of any transaction will be close to averages on branch. And the competition in the market will be not war on destruction, and only constant signal that it is necessary to behave in a tone, not to be lazy and work, if wish to be kept in business. And after all more rigid competition, as a matter of fact, also is not necessary: it causes only problems, such as unemployment and social intensity.

And now we will admit, that any firm has managed to lower production costs and for the account of it can reduce the price and thus to receive superprofit. If the market really worked for the blessing of the buyer the innovation would be picked up by all branch and has turned back the big economy as a whole on the country. But at subjects of the market absolutely other purposes. Each of them tries to use technical innovations to crush under itself all market and to banish from it competitors. Therefore innovations are doomed to remain for ever a trade secret if only they will be not not stolen by competitors. In the state with a planned economy of such problem, certainly, does not exist.

The trade secret directly specifies in individualistic, injurious spirit of business and simultaneously with it is sanctimonious character of the morals feeding capitalist business. Firmness of a trade secret is a firm confidence of businessmen that they will manage to swindle under its cover adroitly and is more impudent than competitors. If they doubted it or did not wish to dodge, they would erect for a long time a transparency of transactions in a law rank.

Under cover of a trade secret bank Washington Mjuchual can is easy slip into not given Shanikva debts Чейз to Manhattan, and they be to sell them further on a chain of musical chairs. The idea of trade badly smells as another's debts even at full clearness who to whom should, and than will give. And to buy and sell debts which it is not known as have been cooked up are an employment on venerability degree about same as насрать in the letter, to stick in an envelope and to send by mail.
The global crisis of economy created hush up by speculators that the fact has gradually started to reach the world community was necessary, that secret character of business dealing in planetary scales - means bullshit. Anybody for some reason did not guess it, while "the letter luck", pretending to be a valuable paper, has not flown about a terrestrial orbit one million times and not засрало from height of the flight all world financial institutions.
And only now, when to bullshit already has more or less come and has seemed in all indescribable beauty, the command of liquidators bullshit (it is not known still the truth who whom liquidates), hastily run together in Washington on the "twenty" summit, has accepted the total declaration with the plan which assumes, I quote:
"Level increase transparency and the accountability, strengthening of qualitative regulation, coordination encouragement in the financial markets, strengthening of the international cooperation, reforming of the international financial organisations".

Well here still you will tell?

Game on land

2009-01-22T21:06:00.001+02:00

There is such country - Ukraine. It is had - remarkably - and to Europe it is close, both to Russia, and to Asia. And the runout is in world ocean through Black sea, and black earth in it are, and forests. In a word, a titbit after dissolving of the USSR.

Question - how to appropriate Ukraine? To conquer? Silly. And it is expensive. Around all will be alarmed, and what for it is necessary? Easier - to purchase. Even easier - to purchase separate people who will sell Ukraine for low-cost or for nothing.

Let's enable, you wish to purchase the ancient house in the middle cities. But there it is a lot of tenants who, strangely enough, do not wish to move down and if sell dwelling units for some reason want for them many money. Well, what to make, the house would be desirable. We organise a fire on an attic floor because of old posting, the clogged sanitary piping, we write in a press the indignant articles how awfully to live in the emergency house. Towards the winter - we cut off heating and we "save" tenants, settling them in new-built quarters detached. Also we redeem "Stuff" for reconstruction.

It - not imaginations, is a reality. Discordant more often simply do not find. And with the country - all same methods.

Still D.I.Mendeleyev in the work «the Sensible fare, or Exploration about an industrial development of Russia in connection with its blanket custom tariff of 1891» justified necessity of a protectionism for the young states with weak economy. And it is not unfounded, and leaning against the facts, on developing of England and its metamorphosis from the undeveloped and dependent country in heavy-lift power with natural fleet and colonies worldwide. It has been reached by practically complete embargo of import and support of the national producer. In English fleet it was forbidden even to use foreign manufacture courts! The same economist Fridrih wrote also the Leaf in the book «National policy of political economy», validly claiming, that the free market only hardens advantages of the developed countries, exhausting resources of the countries of the second echelon.

Also what Ukraine makes? - «Forward to the open market!». What for? Correctly, because we need not economy magnification, and dipping of a market value of the country on an international market. By degrees, that have not noted. Low-cost import and own production fall is as a result had. The economy weakens, and that it it was not appreciable - it as a dope, it is fed up by credits.

According to the official statistics, from the moment of ward of the national "orange" power annually the economy received injections about 20 billion bucks. And if you think, that these credits were eaten"not by you be mistaken. They are mortgaged in the prices for meal with which one you ate, and on the goods which one you purchased. Because these prices were possible thanks to credits.

Further - it is just necessary to overlap credit valve, and we the increased appetites will finish eating sick economy, having sold for this purpose manufacturing and a national resource.

And here there is a perfect causing - World Crisis! Credits - should be donated. And any more in low-cost bucks in which one the credit took, and in expensive which one it is had now thanks to crisis. And if the last years we lived as lived only thanks to annual credits on 20 billion following year we should be donated 30 billion you did not muse, how?

The debt frame is that, that from 100 billion debt only 14 billion - a debt state, the rest - debts corporate. And to collect backlogs always it is easier from one large creditor, than from many small. And here comes to rescue the last anti-recessionary credit of IMF. Which one is referred on refunding of external liabilities of banks and major concerns. That is this money cum interest will leave at once Ukraine, and the state remains "should", having restacked outage anticipation notes of banks and corporations on the population.

«According to the law on minimisation of influencing of a world financial crisis on the Ukrainian economy, accepted on October, 31st, recapitalization banks it will be performed at the expense of agents of international financial organisations» - reports agency "RIA Novosti news agency".

Total, the operations and owe banks to IMF (raspingly speaking), IMF yields the credit to the country, the country redeems problem credits which one are returned in IMF. International monetary fund - white and nappy, "helps" the country. The country owes IMF money, and on arms - only problem credits and the loosened economy, fairly fallen in price national currency, falling demand and manufacturings. In the country - a default.

And to donate there is only or geopolitical concessions, such as housing in the terrain of datums of NATO (to the detriment of to attitudes with the proximate neighbours and accordingly economy), or remained material resources - minerals, lands and manufacturing.

The moment for this purpose - a song - buck grows, and the prices for the real property, land and shares fly downwards. Means - it is time.
We take out the moratorium for sale с\х lands. Also we sell on cheap stuff who has money, - in their Ukraine practically does not remain - have left on repayment of external debts.

«Moratorium putting off for sale agricultural purpose lands will allow in 2008 is warranted to avoid an external payments deficit» - as tendered on September, 30th 2008г already. The chairman of advice NBU Peter Poroshenko, acting at the meeting of a circular table organised in the press centre of RBC-Ukraine. And the president, of course, for: «It is assured, that I can convince the Ukrainian parliament to liquidate the moratorium on land traffic, on the organisation of a commodity market of land», - Yushchenko on 5th assembly of worldwide movement for democracy has told.

Further - we will nationalise the operations-bankrupts. But, as to run at national level we are not able - besides denationalize and we donate who has money.

Only to make all is necessary fast, while buck in the price. That is in the maiden half of 2009. Because in Ukraine the world a bevelled block has not converged, it is necessary to purchase still other countries, and then - the main country, where most of all resources - the USA. At first, having hoisted buck concerning small currencies - the small countries, then, having dropped buck or on a broader scale it having killed, - to crush under itself resources of States. About these tendencies - a separate subject, in a format of this article not finding room.

Whether it is possible to make something? Whether it is possible to try to make something? Time a little. It would be possible, come to power new force and the new leader, strong and charismatic, having variated the legislation so that to overlap reflux of resources. But these measures will appear unpopular. After all our children will lose chupa-chups and kola, and at ourselves will disappear from consumption of more half of yields, clothes, footwear, home appliances. Only to overcome consumer moods of company not hefty charism is required. And boldness. Because such person will try to purchase; it will blacken in mass-media; will put or will physically eliminate.

BUT, if all it - only game of those it is boring to whom to float on a luxurious yacht, can be it is necessary to try to perceive rules of this game at least?

The true reasons of world financial crisis

2009-01-22T13:24:00.001+02:00

The true reasons of world financial crisis

The basic and unique reason of landslide crisis of economic is overproduction of the basic world currency - US dollar.

Since 1971 when the binding of dollar to the gold content provided with gold reserves of the USA has been cancelled, dollars began to be printed in unlimited quantities. Purchasing capacity of dollar was provided not only gross national product of the USA (as it occurs in each normal country), but also gross national product of the countries of all world.

All anything, but those states, which economy began to provide force of dollar, never had and have no control over volume of issue of dollar. This control really has also no government of the USA. Such right possesses only FRS the USA.

The federal Reserve system of the USA (differently the Central Bank of the USA) is the private organisation belonging to 20 private banks of the USA. It is their main business - to print world money. To reach it, present owners FRS have spent much and time - decades, to be exact - centuries, and efforts - here 1st and 2nd World wars and Bretton-Vudsky agreements 1944 etc. and, of course, creation ФРС in 1907.

Thus, the group of private persons has definitively acquired the right to release dollars, to define volume, release terms etc. Since 1971 on 2008 volume of dollar weight in the world has grown in tens times, having surpassed many times over real volume of commodity weight in the world.

Such state of affairs was exclusively favourable, first of all, to owners FRSas the private organisation, in the second turn - the USA as to the state. We will tell about benefits of owners ФРС hardly later, and possibility concerns number of benefits of the USA in general since 1944, and especially since 1971, i.e. within last 37 years to live beyond the means, i.e. appreciably at the expense of other world.

So gross national product of the USA makes 20 % from world gross national product. The truth this figure is not completely correct since in volume of gross national product the United States set off a number of indicators, for example cost of some versions of the services, which other countries in gross national product to itself do not set off. If to count by the general rules from 20 % this indicator will decrease approximately to 15 %. Well it is fine, let there will be 20 %. And consume the USA - 40 % from annually made in the world. The question for able to think: if someone makes 20 % (or 15 %?), and consumes 40 % after all someone should pay for it?

Really pays, this someone - other world which gives to America the goods in exchange for poor pieces of paper. Thus there is a huge redistribution of world riches in favour of the USA.

By the way, the more you look at an event in the world, the you are more convinced, that nothing is new in this world. All or was in history, or is described in fairy tales. For example, the exchange of real actives for candy wrappers is similar to how for a beads and other rubbish 24 dollars at Indians have been bought by total cost Manhattan. And ability to live at the expense of others and to be thus the strongest, has been described in a fairy tale about Fillipok which sucked juice from other, weaker plants.

My problem does not include condemnation FRS, the United States of America, as the states or still somebody. It is not necessary to condemn anybody, it is just necessary to see the world such what it is actually. The truthful picture of the world will allow to understand, that occurs actually, that will occur, and that it is possible to make, that crisis or at all has not touched you, or would touch as small as possible.

There is a question: and what for FRS it was necessary to make dollars more than it is necessary for normal functioning of economic?

Really, if all countries which "have voluntary built in" the economy the mechanism of maintenance and maintenance of purchasing capacity of dollar, would have the right to carry out the control over dollar issue anything the bad world with economy would not happen. The real dollar weight would correspond to that real volume of actives which should be provided with dollars.

But in that all counter, that if you the private person also have the right to print the dollar provided with economy of all world, if you are final not sacred, and bankers FRS not sacred you are simply obliged to begin dollar overproduction as it gives you fantastic possibilities. For this purpose ФРС also it was created, everything that the dollar became world currency for this purpose became. Your overproduction of dollar, is yours and only your goods. And the best goods in the world. It surpasses any other kinds of earning money in profitableness. Drugs, prostitution, traffic in arms - simply entertainments лохов in comparison with possibility to let out dollar.

This possibility FRS has received, has not received more precisely, and has earned by right.

The intelligence large quantity has been spent for this right (magnificent brains), the large quantity of efforts, money and years of intense work, for this purpose have been organised some crises and pair of world wars.

We go further.

Dollar overproduction is necessary to be enriched (and what for it still it is necessary?). On this practically virtual money it is possible to buy up completely not virtual, very much even the real liquid property (the companies, factories, gold, other actives).

The part of money needs to be spent for maintenance of force of the USA. Owners ФРС is a brain. But the brain, even with money, is practically defenceless before a brute force. Therefore the brain needs very strong, but not simply strong, and the strongest in the world a body. Such body also is the USA. For this reason did not regret money for that the body had the strongest army in the world, the most full in the world the people.

Therefore always volumes of consumption of the goods were paid by the people of the USA additional, not earned by economy of the USA.

By the way, considerable means were spent for surety of "accessible" credits - consumer, including on habitation. I.e. you yet have not earned anything, but to you have already given the house, car etc. However, under obligation to work on repayment of the credit of 30 years. To pay all it (to give out huge volumes of credits) it was possible only at the expense of poor issue of dollar. Thus those who «in a subject» (owners ФРС) fine knew what to return this money in full it is not necessary to the consumer, since there will come a stage of "a controllable collapse» and all will change, including the dollar will fail also.

But it will be then, for now: in 1970., in 1980, 1990th years - very well, to a controllable collapse still are time.

By the way, often I hear, how many zloradstvujut: - Ur! The dollar will fall, the economy of the USA will fail also it will be crash of the USA! It is necessary to understand one - to a brain by and large deeply to spit on a body.

The brain has created for itself a body, but it is not cardinally connected with a body, he can create some more bodies. The Brain never will lose, if one of bodies be destroyed, or strongly to weaken. Yes, the brain only partially is based in the USA, other parts of a brain are in England, France, Italy etc.

By the way, now the brain, instead of one body, will create still bodies - the multipolar world. Russia will be one of new bodies. Probably, what is it the new body will exist in the form of the allied state of Russia, Belarus, Ukraine and, maybe, Kazakhstan.

That strengthening and integration of Russia will be carried out is almost for certain since, to each new pole of the world (body) the brain has certain objective requirements - on a population, on territory, on capacity of economy, on a military power. In forthcoming strengthening of Russia, unfortunately, there is no merit of the Russia, but it is a separate subject.

Let's return to ФРС.

That the poor part of issue of dollars did not press on the commodity market and did not conduct to dollar depreciation that will be inevitable to occur if dollars in circulation will be much more, than commodity actives in the world, ingenious minds of owners ФРС have thought up magnificent by efficiency ways of linkage, freezing of a considerable part of dollar weight in the virtual goods.

First of all the share market has been for this purpose used. From usual, normal, it has been transformed substantially the virtual. Really, actions of the enterprises stand money. But main and almost unique investment value of actions in the normal market is defined by profitableness of the enterprise, i.e. possibility to receive the income in the form of a part have arrived the enterprise, distributed between shareholders. Cost of actions that above, than above annual profit on the invested capital. So business in the normal share market is.

In the virtual share market the situation will be another. To you will explain, that the profit has insignificant value. Those of 20 or 50 % of this profit of special value have no of 2, 3, 4 or 5 % of profit which is earned by corporation and distributed between shareholders 10.

The main thing - capitalisation growth, and, accordingly, growth of cost of actions. It is important, that cost of your share holding grew. In it the main income of the investor. Actually, in it the main counter for лохов. Also it is not necessary to be upset, that in number dupes there were very clever and strong people. Actually us deceive so, how much ourselves wish to be deceived. Unfortunately, this rule universal, operates bar none and extends, including on the cleverest people.

In the virtual share market there is a following:

Here the businessman has earned one or several millions dollars. He starts to think where to put up money: for example, to construct new factory. For this purpose it is necessary to think up qualitative production which will be in demand, find the earth for building, to construct directly factory, to employ the personnel, to train it, to buy raw materials, to make production, to advertise it, to sell etc. These are the big expenses of personal work, time, nerves in summary some percent of profit on the put up money will be received. Thus work and forces needs to be invested constantly, every day, every month and every year. But here there is an alternative - the "sweet" share market. It is necessary to make nothing. It is necessary to pay only money and the bought share holdings will annually grow in the price, and, more precisely, to you will annually "draw" 10-15 % to the initial price. Any special "head" pain, any special expenses, forces, energy and mind.

All is simple and clear, as free cheese in the known technical device. Well how here not to be deceived and to start to believe any economic "gurus" explaining, that the main thing not profitableness of the enterprise, and growth of course cost.

Really, for those who has transformed the share market in virtual, it actually the main thing since the share market based on an estimation of shares, proceeding from the valid profitableness of the enterprise, can "utilise,"connect"dollar in volumes in tens times smaller, than the market based on growth of course cost of shares. For organizers of the virtual share market it is rather important, since the bill goes on ten billions dollars.

By the way, options, futures and to that similar share rubbish - from the same performance under the name «the virtual share market».

Therefore, facilitating itself a life, it was favourable to be deceived even to very fairly clever businessmen and to believe in the share market. Actually, in such market money really earned by hard work turned to the virtual.

For the same who has thought up this counter with the share market, except a problem of "procrastination" of dollars, such market simultaneously solved also other extremely favourable problems, gave possibilities of huge earnings.

Because if you supervise the key moments of this market, have considerable means (if you print dollars, with money at you problems are not present - always it is possible to give to itself of any size credits for practically unlimited term), itself will organise news to which the market will react both itself define time and an order of giving of these news you will earn fantastic money. Thus, for you this money, unlike dupes too trying to play a stock exchange, will be completely not virtual and real profitableness at you will be not 10-15 virtual percent, and real 40, 50, 60, …, 100 %. And so from year to year.

The main thing is that you precisely know, when you will bring down this market, before it having deduced the money. For now you will buy up from year to year control packages of rather profitable enterprises, that when all will fail very much the most part of real actives remains at you in hands.

For other players the share market is comparable with game in Russian roulette, only in more rigid variant: when from 6 cells in a revolver drum it is occupied by cartridges five. It too game, and in it even will be won dupes, but them will be very little since results are defined by initial conditions of game.

Really share market is provided by money only on 1-2 %. I.e. only investors can remove 1-2 % of money lost-free since this market virtual and from the moment of its creation it was not provided, that investors can leave and remove in large quantities from it at least that they really paid at an entrance.

It as bank from which investors have decided to take away money. Such bank becomes at once on a bankruptcy side. But, the normal bank should have the actives exceeding him of the obligation and when the bank does not have no cash to return money to clients, for the missing sum the bank is obliged to give means from realisation of actives to carry out of obligations to clients. In any case the bank will return to investors at least 80-90 % of money.

And in the share market it is not present anything, here anybody should nothing to anybody, give is going to nothing and never nothing will give.

The bottom of the share market is the real cost of shares defined by real profitableness of the enterprise. This cost in tens times is less than cost of shares in the virtual market.

Therefore, when say, that the USA will direct 700 billion dollars on rescue of the share market, and experts say, that it should suffice - it calls a smile me.

To save the virtual share market it is necessary to print 100 bln. dollars, on all cost of this market. But if them to print, the dollar will fail time in 10. Therefore, to save the share market in such kind in what it existed last decades, nobody is going to. It simply physically is impossible.

He has already played the role, has carried out of problem which were put before it and is not necessary any more to its founders.

Certainly, founders of this market people very clever also will be to show till the certain moment, that in the market there is a struggle for its rescue, and it sometimes, for some days will grow (by the way, on it again and again it will be possible to earn to founders of this virtual market since they define time and growth volumes). So in this game of strangers won cannot be.

By the way, you never reflected, what from screens of TVs "clever" experts and not less "clever" analysts actually speak about the reasons of growth or falling of share price or oil quotations to you?

For example, someone with a clever kind says to you on channel "VESTI« (or on any other western channel) that the price for oil has grown on 10$ for barrel since the information that oil stocks in oil storages of the USA have appeared on 1 million barrels less has been promulgated, than it was expected. Who and in what volume "expected", and why level of these "expectations" should be a starting point for an estimation of the published stocks? Nobody tries to respond to it, but it is other question from the same performance.

At first about most it 1 million barrels. For stamp Brent it approximately 131 thousand tons (it is rough - about 2500 Ry tanks of oil). Actually it is that volume of the oil, which USA consume for 1 hour. In 2005 a day the USA consumed about 21 million barrels of oil. Now - about 24 million barrels. 1 million barrels is equal 1/8760 parts from annual consumption of oil by the United States or approximately 0,012 % of annual consumption. In money this one million costs to 100 million dollars (at the price of 100 dollars for barrel). And, these 100 million dollars are not lost, they anywhere do not share, have not disappeared. Them simply had not time to take to oil storages. By the way, not the fact that had not time to take, and them really for the present is not present in storehouses. Simply there is an information news to the market. This «shocking news» calls growth of cost of volume extracted for a year in the oil world on 228 billion dollars (10 dollars × of 7,6 barrels in ton × of 3 billion tons).

Can estimate intellectual qualities of the "experts" explaining to you why the price for oil for 10 dollars for barrel has grown. Same 99 % of any other news from financial experts from the share markets concern. And now can estimate, who and how much has earned on this news.

Now about the high price for oil. Last 8-10 years the unique reason of the high prices for oil was only that the high prices during this period solved the same problems, as the share market - to connect dollar weight, but, unlike the share market, in the real goods.

Oil - an ideal choice for linkage of huge weight of money. It is possible to make the wrong choice object and to rise the price for the goods which in case of unduly high increase of the price buyers will refuse to buy. Oil is practically unique goods which purchase anybody never will refuse. Even the ordinary citizen going by the car, practically, cannot be put again on a tram or by the underground. He will prefer to remain half-starved, but on the saved money he will buy gasoline and will continue to use the car. By the way, 69 % of oil are processed in gasoline and diesel fuel. Thus, oil money not only the big companies, but also simple citizens as last 10 years and simple citizens had too many money for hands communicates, and these means too began to represent premature danger to dollar - the basic goods of owners ФРС.

Except direct linkage of several billions dollars, the high prices for oil are also ideal means of a rise in prices for all other groups of the goods (the foodstuffs, mechanical engineering production etc.) since everywhere in the prices there is a power and transport component.

Such additional rise in prices annually gave the chance to connect some more billions dollars.

So, direct interest in it the USA was the unique reason of the highest prices for oil last decade, is more correct than those who printed dollar. It was necessary to delay a collapse of a pyramid for some years and well to be prepared for «a controllable collapse» economic.

And highly to lift up the prices and to give it a convincing explanation and war in Iraq ostensibly for reception of "cheap oil» has been organised. Americans there have come at all for the control over its oil and that oil of Iraq some years did not get on the market, and instability in this region promoted growth of the world prices for oil.

We go further.

Was very ridiculous to observe in the spring-summer 2008г. Behind messages, that the special commission in the USA searches for speculators at stock exchanges which are guilty in unduly high prices for oil from which the economy of the USA suffers. By the way, speculators and have found.

It is not necessary to condemn owners FRS the USA. Simply it is very clever people, big big, simply fantastic possibilities (both financial, and political, and military men) to influence our world. They are not obliged cares of all mankind. They did not subscribe for it also such obligations have no before anybody. They simply do the business and create to itself mechanisms for growth and prosperity of this business. The purpose of this article not condemnation somebody, the purpose - to show the world such what it to eat and help to save up money that who the heavy work has earned and has saved up small enough money to present measures: from 100 thousand to 1-2 million dollars. Under a pillow to save up this money it will not be possible. But about it hardly later. For now we will continue.

By the way, whether you how the so-called "exchange" prices for gold are defined know?

You think, what there are auctions at a gold stock exchange and the balance of the prices of the offer and demand is a stock quote? Be mistaken. The price for gold is defined by very clever and dear people (I write it without gibes, absolutely seriously since people who have created this mechanism, it, certainly, very clever and influential).

The gold price is defined by members of family of Rothschilds who are going to in the London private residence and on the basis of the exchange demands which "origin" is known only by them, define how much should there is a gold. By the way, I mentally applauded them about 6-7 years ago when they have on the sly lowered the price for gold to 250 dollars for troy ounce. Then, as on magic wand wave, there was a weight of articles that gold has ceased to carry out function of treasure and support of a part of gold and exchange stocks that the central bank it is necessary to get rid of gold. As a result the central banks of Switzerland and England have sold to investors on half of gold reserves if I am not mistaken - something about 2 500 tons, (try to guess who bought up them). And, apparently, business has not managed only the central banks of England and Switzerland. I then not so could watch a situation since I did not have an Internet, and in newspapers and magazines about it wrote a little.

Then, within 3th years, the price for gold has grown more than to 1000 dollars for ounce.

Now it fluctuates about 750-800 dollars, but do not worry, when it becomes necessary, she will quickly grow both to 2 and to 3 thousand dollars for ounce. More correctly not dollars, and any other money which will come in the stead of dollar.

Everyone can present, that would be for it in respect of personal well-being if it had the right to define the price of gold for all world. Whether it was necessary for it to be engaged still in any business or this business costs all other kinds of business of together taken?

Now it is necessary to tell that occurs now in the world and that will be further.

Now there is «a controllable collapse». It is necessary to understand, that for founders of the virtual share market no trouble does not occur. All goes under the plan. This stage of "a controllable collapse» also should bring huge profits and strengthen positions of owners FRS all over the world. The collapse stage is inevitable, since nobody cancelled laws of physics, and any financial pyramid will necessarily fall. These are the Egyptian pyramids can stand centuries, and financial pyramids necessarily fall.

It would fall hardly later, in 2-3 years itself but then process would become uncontrollable and could harm interests of founders of a pyramid. To a controllable collapse there was an active preparation many years. All the matter is that during this stage will be necessary to buy up for nothing the major and most profitable enterprises, and for this purpose it will be necessary to supervise rigidly all financial streams and to have possibility to stop those from them which will threaten interests of buying up of the enterprises (for example which can help to hold on before crisis end to the enterprise interesting to buyers).

Whether there was such preparation? Whether we can see its traces? Was. In the middle and second half 90th years the bank secret has practically disappeared. An official occasion of struggle for cancellation of bank secret - necessity of struggle against non-payment of taxes. Under the threat of that for banks of Switzerland and other countries where presence of bank secret was declared, the bank markets of the USA, Canada and other countries, practically all states will be closed have refused bank secret, as that.

But easier to know, that any money somewhere and whence goes insufficiently. It is necessary to have an opportunity, if necessary, actively to influence a situation. Following step became - on September, 11th, 2001. Events, happen then, solved variety of problems, but we now will allocate only one, interesting us in respect of a subject of our article. As a result of these events laws on struggle against terrorism financing have been passed. Generally it is easy to understand, that terrorists are almost always financed at all through banks, and for the organisation of acts of terrorism the ridiculous sums - usually to several tens thousand dollars are necessary.

Actually, an overall objective of acceptance of these laws was creation of the mechanism of blocking without decisions of courts for any term (though for 20 years) any sum if there are suspicions, that it ostensibly intends finally to terrorists. Legal proceedings in this case are inconvenient are long, it is necessary to present proofs, what is it really terrorist money, and it is difficult to supervise huge weight of courts all over the world. So the real tool for influence if necessary on a situation has been received at the future «a controllable collapse».

I will show also other elements of preparation (on an example of Russia):

For this purpose it is necessary to understand the following: you have paid attention, where Russia held all these years 90 % of the means obtained from sale of oil under the high prices? Where money of stabilisation (reserve) fund of Russia took places?

Correctly - in the USA. This money has arisen at Russia because of actions of the USA in the name of owners FRS and, on justice, i.e. on "concepts", Russia generally did not need to use them. It is obvious, that the main thing here was not that all knew as to arrive "fairly", and that the management of Russia, had and has only one possibility - implicitly to make, as it is necessary to owners FRS. Why it so - a separate subject.

Remember, how the Russian politicians and "experts" explained some years successively what at once to spend oil money for needs of Russia it is impossible, since it will call "awful" inflation? It is necessary to think some years as them to spend, define presidential programs, priorities and only then very cautiously it is possible to start to take away money from the USA and to spend.

Why the USA could spend decades billions poor dollars for the consumption and it has never called "awful" inflation are "experts" to us did not explain.

Certainly, whence to "experts" could come to mind, that if not to eat this money and to spend them for building of factories and factories which will make the goods, i.e. to fill the commodity market no additional inflation in Russia will exist. Too difficult problem for "experts" to realise it. To say easier, that lip: about dangers of "awful" inflation which will result from "rating" of economy of Russia money. It was necessary to carry out a problem, real sense which "experts" did not understand - to prove, why Russia holds in the USA all earned as a result of the high prices for oil.

When last year Russia has started to spend money for presidential programs, I have told to the friends: «All children to wait remains not for long: Russia have already allowed to spend money».

Well, and when in August of this year the prices for oil began to fall, it became clear, that the problem on their maintenance at high level is solved and now the basic events in the virtual share market will begin.

Let's continue how there was a preparation for a controllable collapse to Russia.

For forthcoming realisation of successful buying up of the important actives it was important, that the large interesting enterprises have not saved up by the moment of a collapse of the markets considerable monetary stocks in volumes which could help to hold on it afloat that period of time in which «the controllable collapse» should come to the end.

The possible mechanism of creation of such latent reserves for the enterprises - through non-payment of taxes, through cashing in.

As you remember, since 2000, and especially since 2003, in Russia "ruthless" struggle against the oligarchs who are not paying taxes has begun. Have frightened them so, that some Russian oligarchs have allowed rigid instructions to the financiers to pay all taxes, to pay even when the accounting situation really allows to interpret doubly, whether it is necessary to pay the tax in a concrete case. Those superprofits which could be formed at the oil companies from the high prices for oil, were withdrawn about the help of excises and other taxes. To the companies left no more than 20 % from a gain so that was on what oil to extract and absolutely slightly to grow fat. Therefore support of the most severe control over payment of taxes was very important problem. It was necessary to collect them as it is possible more full.

And where there were collected taxes (except financing of expenses of the budget)? Correctly - in the USA as a part of various reserve and other funds. There in a different kind huge annual proficiency of the budget went also.

Last 3 years to Russia also there was very rigid struggle against cashing in of means. It was killed two strategic hares. The first - nobody will create too large stocks of a cash which could provide that its business "has not died" during crisis, and the second - those of 11-12 % which cashing in cost - these huge sums overworked, besides, those who has the right of them to earn.

On the one hand it is possible to assert, that struggle for taxes are that does any civilised state and it is not a preparation element to «a controllable collapse». Yes, it so, but it is necessary to pay attention, that in the conditions of Russia when in the beginning of this decade for the first time since 1991 the budget began to be filled, this struggle has begun practically simultaneously with the beginning of a rise in prices for oil. It is necessary to pay attention and to forms of this struggle: the chosen indicative victim (Khodorkovsky), its communication with the mighty of this world and the main object of struggle - the companies of oligarchs. Also it is necessary to look, where the money received as a result of this struggle (the share market of the USA, hypothecary papers of banks of the USA etc.) went. All it allows to draw that conclusion which is made.

Then in the world there has come long-awaited day - crisis has begun.

The true reasons of world financial crisis (continuation)

2009-01-22T10:28:00.001+02:00

As the hole in liquidity has been made and the western and Russian banks to tell there is no the sense, all it and so know.

On magic wand wave (a rod know, in whose arms) it has ceased to be purchased metal products, have fallen petroleum prices, it is sharp - in times have fallen capitalisation of the companies, banks began to withdraw credits, any crediting has ceased hypothecary and practically. Oligarchs have started to perceive, that they any more absolutely oligarchs.

Now it is a little how in Russia the patriotic rhetoric and patriotic processes are combined with an implicit dirigibility of a management of Russia in questions of following to rules and indicatings from «a control centre flyings». Here it is necessary to recognise the following: unfortunately, there is no special merit of the people and a management of Russia in developing of patriotic processes of the last years. To me it is final, as to the person, pleasantly, that all it takes place, but here we see simply embodying of one of devices of the plan of opening-up for a new configuration after the crisis world. The plan on building of one of new poles of the multipolar world.

Goes joining the people of Russia, and owing to historical and national features of the people of Russia, is better and to rally most effectively it for patriotism. Because other alternatives in Russia do not transit. Therefore the last years duplicity of the West is very well and effectively demonstrated, etc. Here it is not necessary to speak its dual standards much, all and so know how much efficiently moves to the population the real information that from itself introduces the West in moral sense.

Joining other unit of the people - officers and oligarchs of Russia goes under other scenario. America suddenly unexpectedly starts to make foolish, is strategic errors harmful to it: seizes Russian officers correctly working on the American concerns and oligarchs. Of them, entry, accordingly in the USA and to France etc. is forbidden to some.

As a result the world outlook of the Russian officers sharply varies. Before they considered, that fair ministering to concerns of the USA, country plundering, economy disorder on dignity will be estimated behind ocean, that for them (officers) of the USA is the present maiden native land, that they on completion of the mission in Russia will leave on the West, and will easy use the stolen. As at the majority of monogynopaedium and so have already been sent to America. And here suddenly all was inverted in their pattern of the world. It has appeared, that America throws out them as the used rubber goods designed for prevention of unwanted pregnancy.

Americans simply had no right to make it pertaining to the Russian officers even if those would steal a unit stored in Forte-noks gold holding of the USA. Anybody is better and more effective, than that breed of officers, Russia did not blast. No war could be compared to effects of their activity. And here suddenly unexpectedly the USA have hit on the fifth string in Russia.

How on this background the behaviour of a management of Russia looks? Ideally from the point of view of the frightened, confused officers and oligarchs. Russia and gives away to nobody anybody. The Cossack slogan reacts: «With Don distribution are not present!» From Ukraine the former Minister of Internal Affairs Belokon and the former chief of the department businesses of the president of Ukraine Bakay run to Russia. Yushchenko spurt out a saliva, requiring to give away them, but Russia to anybody does not give away them and even America here cannot do anything. Such examples of ten.

All is sign cues for officers. The USA hand over the, and Russia does not hand over the.

All at once it became clear, that the main thing - to execute game rules: to steal in smaller gauges, than earlier and something to make for the state - and everything, you in security, you - the. When the state starts to struggle ruthlessly with oligarchs for a tax dodging, but is simultaneous with it easy nominates in the power of governors which one stole always and prolong to steal after a job assignment is not contingency. It is an operation device on joining official-oligarchical assemblage. Officers start to feel protected and in security in this state and, on the whole, cease to work on another's states. The same - and oligarchs. The state, in turn, starts to lobby and protect concerns of the businessmen in the world markets, to help to perform expansion of the Russian business to Europe, in the USA and other regions.

About it it is possible to say, reconcile many many examples of that Russia are going to to make one of new enough the strong poles in the world of a new configuration which one will be created in the proximate year-two.

But before still there will be a series of important events, and such events which one it is severely affected all of us.

Now, as we have already told, at full speed there is a process which one conditionally it is possible to name «a controllable breaking-down».

The stock market has failed, huge problems with embodying of production at metallurgical, automobile, building, chemical and other companies were formed. There is no sense to transfer all those problems which one have arisen - such reports news lines dazzle.

But here there are interesting features: the stock markets have failed instantaneously (within 1-2 days) and at once on such volumes of fall to do severe, practically deadly holes in liquidity of the operations and banks.

And banks were the maiden target. For example, the Russian banks, easying themselves life, not especially liked to credit a real occupational sector, for them much more interestingly without any headache to play the stock market was temporary the free money of clients. In Russia the virtual stock market the last years of dews "confidently and fast. And here it is unexpected for one day has fallen to third. In transfer on usual tongue - banks have lost third of client money from with what they played the market. To sell shares on new, more to low prices, meant to record huge losses and to lose hope, what is it only casual fall and in a week of the price ratoon and all is normalised. All began to wait, when the prices will return. And they, for some reason, a week later have fallen to third. Volumes of loss became catastrophic (as of today the prices for the virtual stock markets in Russia have fallen already almost in 5 times).

As a result at banks huge holes in balances were formed, banks cannot yield anybody credits since there is no money. The western banks because of problems in the countries start to withdraw the credits which have been given out to the Russian banks and the companies, that catastrophically aggravates a situation.

At the largest Russian companies the capitalisation expected proceeding from exponents of the prices for the shares of the companies on the virtual stock market slumps. It is one more establishment on which one the western banks began to require automatically the recall of a unit of credits, and rating agencies began to depress ratings of these companies. The volume of credits depends on a rating and the capitalisation total also. At dipping of these exponents there is almost automatic recall of a unit of credits and possibility for the company disappears to take still somewhere new credits, to hold on during difficult times.

In the aggregate, for banks and the large companies which one sit on a credit needle, the apocalypse situation has come.

By the way, that in that economical sample piece of the world which one has been marshalled in the last decades, without credits any major concern, any bank could not work. As availability of credit resourses in the West was simply shocking, and rates per hundred - simply sweet for business. But all sweet instantaneously vanishes, as soon as at the operation or of bank start to require preschedule backstock of the credit. And, the causes very "objective", registered in the credit agreement - «fall of capitalisation of the company on 10 %». As we know, capitalisation has fallen at all. In Russia in 5 and more times, and in the West - on 30-50 % and more.

By the way, whether resembles you it with what crisis of 1929 - "Great depression" began. There too on conditions of credits under buying shares, the creditor had the right to require, that the borrower has returned the credit within days (so-called marginal the loan). Such requests have been simultaneously and unexpectedly presented, and borrowers had to sell urgently shares that has called the instant breaking-down of the share market.

If this scheme has fine worked in 30th years why it with some paravariations not to apply today? As happens.

Now there is a necessity to solve commitment to buy up for nothing the most interesting and paying concerns. How it to make? Easier to come to the holder and to tender it any ridiculous enough total for its business? Most likely, it will despatch far away such visitor even if to it and its business it will be very bad. He will try to wait somehow times of trouble, will be broken off from actions at law from creditors, to delay litigations (they can be delayed for 2-3 years).

It not that road, which one can suit CCF («a control centre with flyings») on behalf of FRS.

Not looking at all power (both intellectual, and financial) at it is not present a sufficient resource to lead thousand the difficult litigations with the people protecting by hook or by crook the business. And the time factor here plays very relevant role. All operation should be finished during certain, not so major span because post termination buying up there will come other, even more relevant stage. But about him hardly later.

As to buy up the operations and the whole branches of business so that both the prices were comprehensible and buying up terms short?

Very simply: it is necessary, that the state has started to save "drowning" oligarchs, their banks, their companies. The state will tender credits «on salvaging» is strategic the relevant companies for the state. For example, in Russia it to 4,5 billion bucks on the company.

The oligarch will face to a difficult select:

- Or smashup of the business will begin already now when nobody yields credits, when there is no production sales, and costs for the company content (production plants, blast furnaces etc.) even in the conditions of blowing-down of manufacturings are huge and in 2-3 months simply up to the end "will eat" the company,

- Or to take the credit from the state and to try to hold on, especially, all "analysts" and "experts" say, that enriching in the spring will begin, all is normalised also the oligarch, started to doubt, that it the oligarch, becomes again the present oligarch as it was in July, 2008.

However, drawing upon a credit conditions are hardish and are generally similar to signing of waiving of business in favour of the third person. But after all we hope for the best. All will transit as a bad sleep and again will be as earlier: the low-cost money (credits), the growing virtual stock market, the world swells from bucks, production sales increases. Yes like and the credit undertakes at the native state with its friendly tuned and well familiar selling officers. In case of what, they for "recoils" will help to prolong credits for so much time, how much it is necessary, that all in the world has returned to size standard. Here if the credit was tendered by the rigid businessmen it would be extremely hazardous. Actually, the capture of credits on such conditions would be voluntary waiving of business in favour of yielding the credit.

But a counter here that when all to whom it is necessary, will take credits and thus will sign all rigid guarantees of backstock of credits, here then with the finance it becomes rather bad. When term will approach to return credits, to return them really there will be nothing. The prices for shares still will fall, petroleum prices - too will fall bucks to 20 for barrel, production seller's markets will be zero. So, there will be a global reconstituting of the property which one «the controllable breaking-down» is one of stage main purposes under a name title. Certainly, at first business will transfer to the state (officers will unexpectedly take a hard line pertaining to oligarchs - where you will trample against the order from what order to default - morses look-alike), well and then business from the state will transfer to to whom it is necessary.

Now about "strong" buck.

The buck will be "strong" all time until oligarchs and other companies will need to return the credits nominated in bucks. The "strong" buck to return much more difficult, and it will be bought up more hardly in the necessary volume for settlement for «softly devaluate» by rouble and for «is strong devaluate» grivna. A situation for Russia and Ukraine in this sense same, as well as for practically any other state (for example, in August-October the Mexican peso has fallen against the dollar more, than to 30 %, the euro has fallen to buck to 25 % etc.). This huge, even "terrible" fall in conditions when profitability of the majority of the operations compounds 10-15 %, and is not present possibility be loaned up to wait times of trouble. Thereby that oligarchs cannot return the credits taken from the state is follow-up warranted.

Besides, the buck will be "strong" until this "strong" buck will not pay with from whom business will not collect the state and from whom it will purchase. Such too will be. It concerns at whom business more shallow, but too very interesting and profitable. When to businessmen it becomes absolutely bad, and they will be on the verge of complete loss of the business when to them will tender the quite good total, moreover and in the "strong" bucks, they, of course, with pleasure will agree to sell business.

Here when these two stages will be performed, there will come the most interesting and rather hazardous stage.

Once again wished to pay attention, that all it is written for simple people with absolutely small caretakings, the small and medial businessmen who have accumulated from 100 000 bucks to 2 000 000 bucks fair or rather fair and, without any doubt, persistent work. Global processes which one happen now, can have destructive impact on effects of their work. That it has not happened it is necessary to perceive, that happens in the world actually and that will happen further. Knowing a real pattern, it will be easier to you to make in time the correct solution and to save up effects of the long service.

There is a global reconstituting of the property, there is a new configuration of the world with new centres of force. Though a reconstituting main purpose are the largest companies, banks, the operations, and not so small and medial business, but blow is necessary on all and it is necessary to be saved, have time to leave from it from under blow or at least severely to loosen it.

How to fall into to this crisis? Was difficult onevalued to tell. I think, precisely it is not necessary to exult mischievously, that many oligarchs from agendas «Forbes» will disappear from it for ever. Normally, simply stronger and clever predators "will eat" it more weak and less clever.

By the way, one indirect example bears to force of mind at least. In the agenda «Forbes» it is a lot of billionaires from Russia:

-Deripaska-28 billions bucks;

-Mardashev-24milliarda bucks;

-Abramovich - 24 billion bucks etc.

But in the world agenda «Forbes» there are such bankers, as Rockefeller and Rothschild, at maiden all about 800 million bucks, and at the second about 750 million bucks. Even to billion do not hold out. Though, on my estimations, each of them really "weighs" on 9-10 billion bucks. So was able to position itself is the best exponent of their intelligence. They ostensibly at all do not hold out to billionaires.

Here also compare Rothschild and Rockefeller's intelligence on the one hand, and the Russian oligarchs on the other hand. It thus, that our oligarchs have intelligence much above, than at overwhelming majority of people. But it appears, that there are people, it is many times cleverer than them, that, by the way, it is visible and on an event now to world crisis.

Let's prolong the story that will be post termination property reconstitutings.

Further will come imminent - the buck default will follow. It inevitably at any alternative of succession of events since overproduction of buck by the Federal Reserve System is very clever, jumbo on volumes and scope, but all the same a pyramid. This pyramid has served the, has brought to the founders and organizers of its building fabulous lost heads and to save it, on the one hand, it is impossible, with other - there is no sense. It is necessary to transfer to the new scheme of earning money, to new Bretton-Vudsky agreements.

Transition to new world system smoothly from the previous world currency - buck - is impossible.

In the world there are no so much goods and real assets, how much it is printed bucks. Cumulative mass of the released bucks of times in ten more than cumulative tangible value.

There is no alternative of succession of events at which one America could be refused from default buck.

Therefore the default and buck waiving will happen the proximate months that various "experts", "analysts" etc. spoke

All question as it will happen since this very severe event and very hazardous to everything including for organizers of a dollar pyramid. After all many lost all will start to muse, and as how has happened, where caretakings who in it is guilty have got to? The strongest course for the solution of this problem for provision of secure alternative for itself is a realisation of a default through «major blood».

I think, that huge "state of emergency" of a world scale from hundreds thousand victims will be organised. And blow is necessary on terrain USA, or across Israel. Blow across the Western Europe is less interquartile. Can be for the company with the USA and Israel, but not separately. Blow only across the Western Europe to bring down buck much more hardly. Blow will be put, most likely, with use of the kernel weapon, or of "dirty" charges since are required hundred thousand victims and radioactive infestation of considerable terrains (the analogue with its three thousand victims is not necessary on September, 11th, 2001, the gauge is too small for a default).

It seems to me, that Russia or Ukraine for blows do not suit, since even if Russia and Ukraine and more something in addition will be completely erased, with all their population it will not call a breaking-down of buck. Americans and Europeans from such news (from killing of Russia and-or Ukraine) will shudder, will tell, - «what horror» and … will easy go to prolong to drink the beer.

Who and how will strike a blow?

I think, that the kernel weapon of Pakistan, as the unique Muslim country having the kernel weapon will be for this purpose used. The strong president Musharraf (by the way, biased it with the active help of the USA) has been for this purpose biased from a post in August, 2008, by several months before has been killed Benazir Bhutto (it too was the strong chief from under which one check the kernel weapon could not leave). In the power has been reconciled Зардари - the husband of dead B.Bhutto. It still that shot. One year ago it was severely treated at the psychiatrist. The person picturesque, has managed two times when Бхутто was the prime minister of Pakistan, влипнуть in such corruption scandals, what even his wife the prime minister could not it отмазать, and once it even has stayed in prison. The ideal chief of the country that the kernel weapon could get to terrorists or that it secretly Iranians ostensibly could "purchase or"steal"and use for blows across the USA or Israel.

I resemble, that Zardari have delivered at the head of Pakistan the USA hardly more two months ago. By the way, now the USA make everything to excite the most serious Antiamerican moods in Pakistan. That there are weekly blows of the Air Forces of the USA on pakistani villages on border with Afghanistan, ostensibly during prosecution of Talibs. Each time perishes 20-40 persons, basically women and children. Or to take Bush's at least recently promulgated confidential decree from July, 2008 that armed forces of the USA are authorised to traverse border with Pakistan and to strike blows to pakistani terrain for extirpation with terrorists-Talibs, not asking the consent of the pakistani authorities.

All it specially recovers against the USA all in Pakistan and is final first of all armed forces of Pakistan where there is on arms a kernel weapon.

Certainly after blows across the USA (or to Israel) will begin the whole war, with complementary millions victims. It will be necessary to "punish" attacked America. Who will particularly attack - or the Iran which somehow has taken possession of the kernel weapon of Pakistan, either Pakistan, or both states at once, or Ben Laden stolen a charge - is is not so relevant. Was relevant, that there will be such events after which one the question will be not pertinent - and whether it was possible «to save buck». To us will respond, that certainly it was possible, if not these «damned terrorists» or «the damned states - derelicts», etc. Will tell - you see - all of us for this purpose made: have designated 700 billion US dollars on stock market keeping up, and the market even "reacted" to our operations (already month the Dow Jones average goes for a drive there-here from 8100 to 9600 items). We have conducted the summit 20 states and have decided to reform IMF and the World Bank, it is better to monitor main parties in fault of crisis - unduly "greedy" bankers, and have made more many that to plaster and anew to paint a facade of a building of a world financial system (buildings at which one the bed actually was completely blasted and have burst all load bearing walls). After all the plastering and painting are two main means of salvaging at such problems.

Here it is necessary to perceive one - the mankind deals with the ingenious, extremely strong bunch of the people which have marshalled that frame of the world in which one we live. But for understanding of those or their diverse operations it is necessary to allow accurately, who they on an occupation. Only it will give the chance to perceive their operations and to prognosticate succession of events.

They are accountants, by training, on outlook, on calling. Sometimes consider, that a word the banker more noble, than the accountant. But it not so. The present accountant is a professional, and overwhelming majority of bankers so administered over the banks that have put them in a puddle. Therefore the accountant is stronger determining, than the banker.

In the conceptual apparatus of the accountant such concepts not allowed in book-keeping, as "humanism", "kindness", "compassion" etc. are weakly introduced

The main thing - digits, the main thing - lost head, the main thing - arithmetics of bargains.

In a situation when it is necessary to offer people but to receive major lost head, for them there are no special doubts how to act. The lost head can be unique rather significant effect only.

In it huge force of these people, but in same and their strategic delicacy, a vulnerable point. Simply the situation is that, that hundreds years these principles of their activity by it bring huge lost heads and work as their force. But sometime these principles will work, as delicacy and either will ruin them, or will cause an irreplaceable damage to business to which one they have devoted the life.

Concomitant account costs of speed keys performed by them sometimes compound ten millions life: the First World War - 20 million, the Second World War - 60 million life.

You ask, what such operations were performed in the Maiden and Second world wars? Correctly to answer this question it is necessary to apply the universal principle: to respond itself to a question - who from it has scored, to whom it was favourable? For example, in the Second world, has beaten Soviet Union, but benefit from war with a huge abruption from other participants have received the USA. In Maiden world - too they.

All is correct - "brain" has performed operations on resolute augmentation of the possibilities and on a sharp build-up of forces "bodies" (USA).

And the price in millions life of the special significance had no, even to the contrary - it was indispensable, since it there were life of citizens of other states which one should be loosened.

Very much it would be desirable to hope, that for a buck breaking-down other road, i.e. not through blood of innocent people and war will be elected.

To think up other road it is much more difficult, but actually, it only a question of intelligence of those who thinks out. All is possible, all is real.

Alternatives can be from the most stupid, phylum, that the USA are simply refused from buck, pronounce a default, referring that because of a world financial crisis, because of recession of economic the buck cannot and to be world currency further. Here "experts" and "analysts", and a large quantity of mass media controllable by holders FRS, will very fast explain and will din into all world, that so was historically stacked, that the buck was on 90 % world currency, and only on 10 % - domestic currency of the USA. And as the buck cannot be more world currency (because of very objective circumstances, because of the most serious world crisis in which one nobody is guilty) it cannot and remain domestic currency of the USA further. For the sake of the noblest purpose of preserving from shattering of major of economics - economy of the USA (that the bucks which have rushed from all world have not wiped off the face of the earth the USA without which one in the world it becomes empty and is sad) - only for the sake of this highest and гуманнейшей the purposes of the USA are forced to be refused from buck and in the country to introduce «new buck».

And if month three after the declaration of such solution, through world mass-media to iron brains to all world 99,9 % of people will start to consider sincerely, that really it was unique and most "noble" of possible runouts, of a situation stacked because of objective, the strongest for all world history, crisis.

Has sat, has thought half an hour and has thought up 2-3 more not so such stupid alternatives of escaping of a situation. I will not begin to set up them since already tired to write, I do not like to write, and it is time to complete.

In any event, there are much more humane means of achievement of an object in view (without blood of innocent people of Israel, the USA, Iran etc.)

And by an account unit (only payment of mass-media) they are more low-cost, than war.

But it is all only in that event it is comprehensible to those who makes of the solution, if after liquidation of the unipolar world, they at building of the multipolar world, will mortgage in its scheme others, not such, as now, principles of reception of the lost head, principles of provision of the influencing in the world and, accordingly, principles of build-up of a world financial system.

Meanwhile to me it is handed over, that they are prepared to recreate all as before: the virtual stock markets, building of financial pyramids (it is simple not from one currency, and from several), and further under the agenda.

Though there are also other sample pieces of the world at which one they can save the influencing, but they them for some reason do not see or, maybe, do not wish to see.

If so, practically unique alternative of developing of the further events - blood. Wherefore only she allows to tell, that all has been correctly organised and only damned "terrorists", "enemies" etc. have spoilt all and have not yielded all to patch.

In other events it is necessary to call things by their proper names, and after that it will be much more difficult to justify, what for and who should build again the same pyramids as earlier.

In the aggregate, a buck breaking-down, waiving it the USA and its metamorphosis into ashes inevitably. Inevitability is specific by that the present financial system of the world is constructed by a financial pyramid principle.

That to you did not speak, the pyramids hired by founders "experts", it should this time will fall also has come. It is a question of several months.

Be assured, that there will be it on 100 % unexpectedly for everything, except chiefs of this process. Till the last moment the buck will be strong, all will be stacked not bad.

Then, in one day, all will be transmuted into ashes. As one clever person has told: «Now for buck yield 27 roubles, and will soon yield in a nose».

The euro, rouble etc. Though will simultaneously fail, on these currencies there will be no default as on buck, but they because of the hugest hole in the world finance will instantaneously fall in the price of times at 10-15.

When at all money will practically disappear, slow building of a new world economic system will begin.

Main items will be at those who possesses the most profitable assets (the real operations etc.). They most fast and more than all begin to earn new money. The others will remedilessly lag them.