Supposedly the exuse to move up big was that traders cheered G-20 promises of additional fiscal stimulus. Equity markets moved higher first across the Asia/Pacific markets and then in Europe after the central bankers and finance ministers agreed to “continue to provide support for the economy until the recovery is assured.” Who cares about all the unemployed, just keep pumping, or is that printing money until things are better.

My little double bottom I had on the VIX 15 minute chart didn’t materialize and continued down, reducing volatility and showing the markets to the upside. I didn’t trade much today nor twitter much, as I was moderating the Hit & Run Candlesticks trading room. But I did take some half profits on half positions in CHIP and SPPI, which I have been nursing for a week. Here’s hoping that both positions continue to the upside.

The Dow made new highs today::
But the S&P500 did not confirm that:so either the S&P gets repelled by the double top or confirms a break thru to new highs. We’ll see on Tuesday how that works out. Lookout for “Turnaraound Tuesday” though.

Futures are really blah tonite and working on a 2 point range. Thought they would be a bit more excited than that, but the night is young. See you on the field tomorrow….good luck.

Unemployment was up to 10.2%, a rate not seen since 1983. Of course 10% in 2009 is a lot more unemployed than 10% in 1983! Jobs are not coming back soon…and some not at all.

Some other “good” news that must have fueled the bulls:

Buy a $15,000 Policy or Go to Jail

Consumer credit decreased in 3rd Qtr.

And remember, every Friday the FDIC closes some failing banks — There were 5 banks that the FDIC took over this weekend. The United Commercial Bank of San Francisco, CA became the 120th bank failure of 2009. It’s fun to break records…even when they’re bad news.

I was looking at some charts this weekend and the VIX caught my eye. We had a little spurt up in volatility, but has returned to where we were before the markets ran down 2 weeks ago. So we’ll need to see if this double-bottom shows the start of some up move.

The really next big excitment trading day is options expiration Friday, 2 weeks away. That will also coincide with the end of the President’s trip to China. Earnings season is winding down and there isn’t much in economic data coming out the next week. So…we may be stuck in a range here for several days if not weeks….unless of course some geo-political event takes place.

Now for the bad news….an increase in productivity means there is no need to hire more people, so the job picture to get better will be delayed a bit. And continuous claims decrease is probably from the long unemployed falling off the insurance rosters. Such comforting news.

I played the same repretoire today as yesterday: ES TNA and TZA. I had TNA from yesterday and was happy to see the markets open to the upside. In my jubilation I cashed out too soon. If I had held on to TNA for another hour I could have doubled my money, but a profit is a profit! Better than chancing a reveersal. Oh well.

This week’s big kahoona report, the Non-Farm Payroll report comes out Friday morning. It’s not very often that the NFP comes out just 2 days after an FOMC meeting, and it has a wild reputation as well for making crazy markets. So watch out

Some articles to explain the day:
U.S. Worker Productivity Jumps

Jobless Claims in U.S. Decrease More Than Forecast

Small stocks poised to outperform

Here’s some interesting reading: Market Moving Closer to Its First Significant Pullback Since Last Spring

Watch out for the Initial Claims report in the morning. Futures are saying we continue the down move. Going to bed….maybe Phillies will rally.

Oh well, beside that, it was a fairly boring market day…another up move on a lower volume day, and not giving us any idea of what it’s doing. Tomorrow at 2PM we get the FOMC announcement. Now that should shove some volatility up our arses

I’m looking for some downside moves, but, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, November is the #1 month for S&P, #3 month for Dow, #2 for NASDAQ. So history says we may go up.

Remember….As Keynes famously once said “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”. So be careful.

Here’s the 15-minute chart of the S&P500. The 1-hour dive at noon was awesome, if you caught it. I’m glad I chose to eat at my desk today!

The eco reports were all positive today, with a pop in home sales and a real good ISM report. Tomorrow we have Factory Orders and Auto / Truck Sales later in the day. Oh yeah, and the FOMC meeting starts Tuesday with a conclusion on Wednesday. So we’ll get an announcement from them on Wed. with similar announcments from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank on Thursday.

Speaking of banks….Last Friday, 9 banks were closed by the FDIC, bringing the total number of banks closed this year to 115. Which brings up some funny anecdotes about banks: “The economy is so bad, when you buy a toaster your free gift with the purchase is a bank!” And another: “The economy is so bad that if the bank returns your check marked “Insufficient Funds” you can call them and ask if they meant you or them.” heehee.

Okay, trade well everybody

Remember that many mutual funds had their year end take place on Friday, which surely contributed to the selling pressure as they locked in gains and reallocated their portfolios. But Monday starts the historically strongest 3 months of the trading year. Of course last year wasn’t very inspirational.

Reading articles and blogs over the weekend, it sounds ominous out there. But, when everyone gets scared, it may be time to pick up some cheap stocks. Looking at some charts, we look to be close to support in the S&P500, around the October lows.

The Russell has already cut through its October lows, after putting in a double top, and is approaching its September lows.

FOMC meeting this week and lots and lots of economic data with the monthly Non-farm Payroll report on Friday topping it off. The futures this evening have already put in a 10-point range and looking up. Should be the start of an exciting week. I’m going to concentrate on the ES futures this week and also watch the 2x and 3x ETFs like TNA / TZA, BGU / BGZ, QID / QLD. I’ll let you know how that pans out.

The TNA held overnight last night worked as planned. My only regret was I cashed out too early, but a profit is a profit. All the indexes bounced of their 50ma, except for the Dow, which hasn’t made it down there yet. But they all made up yeasterday’s losses plus more.

We’ve got Personal Income/Spending reports on Friday, the Chicago PMI and Michigan Sentiment…all out by 10AM. You can check in to see how the Asian markets are shaping up this evening: Asian Stocks Rise on Japan Jobless Data, U.S. GDP; Rio Advances. And ES futures have had a narrow range of less than 3 points. So let’s hope the markets don’t get scary tomorrow.

Happy Halloween!

We’re down about 6% from the top just 6 days ago, which is the largest correction since this bull started back in March. It’s also one of only 3 times since then when we have had 4 down days in a row. We haven’t had 5, so tomorrow may be a “special” day. I’m thinking it is time for a bounce…maybe not a big one, but a bounce…thus my holding some TNA.

Some other ominous moves were GS breaking thru its 50ma, as did the S&P, Nasdaq, QQQQ. The Dow is still hanging tough, or at least tougher than the rest. This all started when GS lowered it’s GDP estimate, so Thursday morning will be exciting. And don’t forget Initial Claims!

So let’s get ready to rumble into the end of October. If we don’t move up in the next 2 days, we’ll finally have a down month, the first since February. Keep your finger on the mouse and happy trading.