WebSurfinMurf's Financial Blog

We are all fleas on an elephant

noreply@blogger.com (WebSurfinMurf) — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 04:12:00 +0000

In our day to day, I forget sometimes how truly out of control life is for everyone. Sure, I think I have some control over my job, my home life, my play time. But really, I owe my entire life on some basic structures that dictate my entire living standard.

The largest one is cheap energy. For without it, I couldn't have a career in Computing software. The energy it takes to make one PC is amazing, my car, everything that is complex. Without cheap energy, these items just wouldn't exist. Not to mention my 99 cent burger at McDonalds. Every aspect of my life depends on this building block, cheap energy.

I have posted before about peak oil, and it is REAL issue. People can dismiss it, but those who look at the facts, that every production of a limited resource hits a bell curve. It's a mathematical reality, it can't be escaped. I was bouncing around on the web when I hit the wikipedia article on peak oil. I highly recommend reading (or skimming it).

I cannot for the life of me even understand what we face, and how we will cope. Think I am over-hyping? Read the quotes below. The greatest hope is if we can accelerate alternative fuels we can sit at the top of peak oil for years as new demand, and shrinking supply, is offset from reduced net demand. So it is possible we can avoid a severe economic calamity. This isn't a crazy far-fetched possibility. Peak oil was originally predicted to be in 1995, but has been pushed out by increasing efficiencies.

All the easy oil and gas in the world has pretty much been found. Now comes the harder work in finding and producing oil from more challenging environments and work areas.
— William J. Cummings, Exxon-Mobil company spokesman, December 2005

It is pretty clear that there is not much chance of finding any significant quantity of new cheap oil. Any new or unconventional oil is going to be expensive.
— Lord Ron Oxburgh, a former chairman of Shell, October 2008

In Feb 2010 the US Joint Forces Command issued the Joint Operating Environment 2010[114] warning US military commands "By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day."

"A severe energy crunch is inevitable without a massive expansion of production and refining capacity. While it is difficult to predict precisely what economic, political, and strategic effects such a shortfall might produce, it surely would reduce the prospects for growth in both the developing and developed worlds. Such an economic slowdown would exacerbate other unresolved tensions, push fragile and failing states further down the path toward collapse, and perhaps have serious economic impact on both China and India. At best, it would lead to periods of harsh economic adjustment. To what extent conservation measures, investments in alternative energy production, and efforts to expand petroleum production from tar sands and shale would mitigate such a period of adjustment is difficult to predict. One should not forget that the Great Depression spawned a number of totalitarian regimes that sought economic prosperity for their nations by ruthless conquest."

"Energy production and distribution infrastructure must see significant new investment if energy demand is to be satisfied at a cost compatible with economic growth and prosperity."

"The discovery rate for new petroleum and gas fields over the past two decades (with the possible exception of Brazil) provides little reason for optimism that future efforts will find major new fields."

This week in charts, market decline ahead?

noreply@blogger.com (WebSurfinMurf) — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 05:24:00 +0000

I have been working since November 60+ hour weeks. This is the main reason I have not been posting more.
I am not going to do my usual chart roundup, but instead redirect you to Gary of the smart money tracker.

I missed him telling dump miners last week. I encourage you to read his post from Sunday on market warning.
Click here to read his post Dangerous Times Ahead.

The other reason why I am nervous I heard comments at work today that their 401k was improving.
Once the rank and file feel good about the market, probably a good time for a punch in the face by the market.

Capitalism and Austerity

noreply@blogger.com (WebSurfinMurf) — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 03:42:00 +0000

In Capitalism, there are suppose to be winners and losers, in a sort of evolutionary game of business. In business if a company can't hold up it's end of an obligation, it defaults, and the lender takes the hit as well as the borrower getting a black eye on credit worthiness.

That is how it used to work. As it is well known now, most larger institutions are allowed to avoid taking losses, through changing of accounting rules in place since the great depression. (mark to market). Also by quasi government institutions setting up special funds and funding. (Federal Reserve Bank).

What we are seeing in Europe is similar, but since there version of Federal Reserve bank and their governments can't just print money at will, they are shifting in the other direction. Asking debtor nations to cut back. What this really is the lenders wanting to avoid taking hits from the borrows inability to pay back.

So instead of taking the hit, they want everyone to take the hit...for decades...or however long it takes to get their payment back.

Below is great video to explain all of this. I don't agree with every sentence here, but 90% is on the mark. Well worth the watch.

Alternate News Sources Important

noreply@blogger.com (WebSurfinMurf) — Sat, 04 Feb 2012 18:00:00 +0000

Yet another example of how important alternate news sources are. Granted, the issue below is super small, stupid and nothing to get up in arms about.
But how many other items don't we hear about, because its killed early?

The Mythbusters show encouraged to not show an episode answering how secure are RFID in credit cards. If Myth busters can find out information that shouldn't be shared, I am pretty sure Russians, Chinese, organized crime, and a determined hacker could.

I'd have some respect for stopping airing the show IF the companies promised RFID 2.0 by January 2014 that covers all the security holes. And they want less information on how to hack RFID in the mean time. But I am in the camp of silence will result in slower action.

Anyway, I digress.

A society and economy is best served with clear laws, enforcement for all, and transparency to ensure corruption doesn't become entrenched. In such an environment investment can be made with higher confidence and corporate growth increased.

Notice how no legal action was taken, the threat of being friendly to its advertisers was enough.

Great News Sources

noreply@blogger.com (WebSurfinMurf) — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 05:01:00 +0000

Mish yet again has a great post listing great news sources. I encourage everyone to read the blogs and find one they like. If you have time to read only one blog, read Mish and stop reading mine. This post is a great follow up to "The Media News Bias"

The first slide is the above block quoted (indented) text.

Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis

The Epicurean Dealmaker

Pragmatic Capitalism

Economonitor's Edward Hugh

Ludwig von Mises Institute

Minyanville

Abnormal Returns

Distressed Debt Investing

The Media News Bias

noreply@blogger.com (WebSurfinMurf) — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 13:18:00 +0000

Mish has a great rant on his blog about mainstream US media vs other sources such as Russia Today.
I think of myself as open minded, but I also recoil a little about getting news from Russia Today. I guess my childhood of being told over and over that Russia is the enemy (and they are!) has me on the guard.

But the US media also is the enemy, for if we pull back for the last 20 years, the media has NOT been on the attack and helped the masses understand the important issues and keep their focus on the ball. Instead its "Entertainment News", and less news, more opinion/spin.

So how can I trust US news to give me the current important news if the media has not been focused on core political and economic issues?

This doesn't mean I trust Russia Today, but the coverage I have seen rings more informative than many other news sources in the last few years.

I encourage you to read Mish's Rant Privatizing of Gains and Socializing of Losses; You Want the News? From Where?, and a good episode of Russia Today below. It is full of opinion, and not facts, BUT it is very apparent when opinion is being given, unlike fox news.

Gold Miners - A buy?

noreply@blogger.com (WebSurfinMurf) — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 05:56:00 +0000

My friend John contacted me about gold miners today. When a frugal investor is looking at miners, its worth buying. Then I jumped onto Gary of the Smart Money tracker site, he is turning bullish too.

Worth starting to jump in here, with some stops. Keep in mind GDX has been in a range for a while, if it can build up and break out, this may go on for a bit.
Good luck.

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

Thomas statement on White House absence

noreply@blogger.com (WebSurfinMurf) — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 13:16:00 +0000

Bruins goaltender Tim Thomas released the following statement Monday evening regarding his absence from the Bruins' visit to the White House this afternoon:

"I believe the Federal government has grown out of control, threatening the Rights, Liberties, and Property of the People.
This is being done at the Executive, Legislative, and Judicial level. This is in direct opposition to the Constitution and the Founding Fathers vision for the Federal government.
Because I believe this, today I exercised my right as a Free Citizen, and did not visit the White House. This was not about politics or party, as in my opinion both parties are responsible for the situation we are in as a country. This was about a choice I had to make as an INDIVIDUAL.
This is the only public statement I will be making on this topic. TT"

I have mixed feelings about refusing to attend as a political statement. But his statement is directly on target. And we haven't seen nothing yet. Thanks John for the link.

The long march to US Currency Crisis

noreply@blogger.com (WebSurfinMurf) — Sat, 21 Jan 2012 14:48:00 +0000

I have heard many people say the US dollar can't have a crisis like other countries due to fiscal irresponsibility. The US is needed too much by the world for them to allow the US dollar to have a crisis.

While I still agree that 2012 is too early for such an event, 2013 to 2017 is the target I am watching.
Since the US dollar has been the world reserve currency since the end of World War 2, there has to be steps first to allow for the US dollar to enter into crisis mode.

We already saw the first step, when countries selling oil started accepting other currencies. The event itself did not cause any issue for the US dollar, but it is a step in a long list of steps of the world decoupling from US dollar dependency.

In the last year we have now seen China, India, Russia, Iran and Japan are exchanging their currencies directly to resolve debt. The US dollar used to be the 3rd party clearing house for such exchanges. These events are a natural outcome of the global currency war raging right now, that gets little press. This started in earnest back in 2009, and continues to this day. The last time this happened, the Great Depression hit the world.

Again, I do not expect any issues with the US dollar valuation due to these moves. It is only a technicality that these countries used to take currencies and go from Country A to USD to Country B currency. But each action of eliminating the USD from world financial transactions enables the day when the US Dollar will have it's own crisis. For once the world is sufficiently (but never completely) insulated from USD valuation change, we may pass the tipping point for the world accepting USD as the world class currency.

The actual opinion shift of USD currency is likely to be resolved with the next president. This is why this election is going to be the most important in my lifetime. Ron Paul, although not a well rounded candidate, is the best option to avoid this event. Such an event exceeds almost any other topics being discussed by the candidates, and this ONE topic is not being discussed.

I am adding this to my Financial Ground Zero series, for the on-going decoupling of USD is a key setup for the larger crisis ahead.

Years 2013-2017 will be nothing like we ever seen before. At least life won't be boring.

This week in charts

noreply@blogger.com (WebSurfinMurf) — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 13:06:00 +0000

Another week has passed, time to look at the charts for what is the trend.

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

Thirty story building made in 15 days video

noreply@blogger.com (WebSurfinMurf) — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 13:10:00 +0000

I have knocked China a bit on the fraudulent construction and real estate valuations. For a country so large, and so populous, it only stands to reason that with massive influx of construction, would be massive gains in construction productivity.

The video below is a great illustration how truely efficient the Chinese have become at construction, not only in ability to create in record time, but to make energy efficient buildings.

With such capability and so much land, I wonder how anyone thought real estate prices would continue to go up forever. If 30 story buildings can be created every 15 days by one company! I have to imagine China has 1,000 companies just like this, creating new buildings at an amazing pace.

Market Trending

noreply@blogger.com (WebSurfinMurf) — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 16:59:00 +0000

I posted last week of optimism getting extreme, and a market decline follows. The post explains why the herd mentality creates such a reaction.
Today on Gary of Smart Money Trackers paid premium service, he quoted the same statistics. However his post had a more refined measurement of optimism than my post. Using his data, the peak should happen in the next 8 business days.
So by January 22nd, the market should already be heading lower.
I stand by my original post last week, just may have been a little too early.

This week in charts

noreply@blogger.com (WebSurfinMurf) — Mon, 09 Jan 2012 02:42:00 +0000

In spirit of the new year, posting charts with a longer historical view.
The charts don't scream anything really. The most interesting is how low Fed 30 year bond rates have fallen without a market crash.
Overall, still bearish because of this signal (click).
To the charts!

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

Brutal Truth of the source of the World Financial Crisis

noreply@blogger.com (WebSurfinMurf) — Sat, 07 Jan 2012 05:01:00 +0000

Since paying attention to the financial disaster in the making since August 2006, this has to be the best video by far to speak clearly and specifically at the root of the financial cancer the western world faces today.

Simple put, enforce laws, and change behavior that brings failure.
Best 8 minutes on the source of the world ongoing financial crisis.

Until we as a society correct our behavior, the situation will continue to degrade.

I have added this to my Financial Ground Zero series, for this video encompass the overall problem the US faces.

Take control of your finances with mint.com

noreply@blogger.com (WebSurfinMurf) — Sat, 07 Jan 2012 02:42:00 +0000

The number of accounts I have between checking, savings, investing, as well as debt accounts like credit cards, car loan, mortgage, etc is daunting to track and fully understand your finances.

A web site offers for free to track all your finances, help categorize, and automatically monitor spending. In under an hour, you can easily have a full view of every transaction and your total net worth. The web site is called https://www.mint.com/ . They use high encryption, and represent bank level quality protections.

So make it your new years resolution to get organized, track, and tighten those budgets. For a penny saved adds to your 0.1% savings account earnings.

:)

Market crash immanent based on peoples optimism

noreply@blogger.com (WebSurfinMurf) — Tue, 03 Jan 2012 05:01:00 +0000

Market declines do not begin when people are pessimistic, but rather optimistic.

It is actually easy to understand why. First, lets dismiss the fundamentals of stocks. Dismiss you say? How?
What is more important is the wave of buying or selling, and the herd mentality.

Lets look at the overall market. When the market hit lows in March 2009 with S&P 500 hit 666, why was that the bottom?
Did some sort of news make it the bottom? There was quite a few events that happened (including adopting fantasy accounting by changing mark to market accounting in place since 1930's.), but none that have been pinpointed to cause a market reversal that day in March.

What is more likely what happened is when the S&P 500 went from 1550 down to 666, by then, who was left to sell?
What I mean is the vast majority of people who did panic, or open to selling, did by then. I have a hard time believing that there was SIGNIFICANT amount of people left to sell as a percent of stock holders waiting for S&P 500 to hit 600 or 550 before selling. The point is, those who saw losses and weren't committed to hold did in fact sell.

So on that day, we had a swing, from not enough sellers to over-run the buyers. From that day on, overall there was more buyers than sellers. The pessimism that day was at a all time high on market view. The market does not turn around with optimism, but when MAXIMUM pessimism is reached.

We now have a dangerous situation. We have a high in LACK of pessimism. I dare not call it optimism, but people are not concerned of a market decline. We are seeing the highest lack of pessimism - optimism - in a year, and at levels seen in early 2008.

This trend of market levitation and lack of pessimism to me puts more fear about a market decline than any fundamentals.

2012 Predictions

noreply@blogger.com (WebSurfinMurf) — Mon, 02 Jan 2012 05:44:00 +0000

Last year, I think I scored pretty good on the predictions. For full list of scoring click here. Scored better than 2010 predictions, but I didn't fare that bad either that year. 2009 predictions was funky, i wasn't very clear on the predictions, making it hard to judge.

So here we are, lets see how I do this year. Let me state this upfront, my assumption that Ron Paul will NOT be the republican candidate. If he gains support, my entire prediction scheme will be way off. The reason is simple, Ron Paul, although not exactly mainstream or well balanced, does represent fiscal prudence. Even if he cannot accomplish much without congress backing, the mere electing (or thread of being elected ) should move markets in 2012.

Its a pretty big opt-out for my predictions this year. But Ron Paul generally speaking doesn't look like he will gain public support, so its probably not going to come into play.

2012 predictions
1) The market will end LOWER on Dec 31st 2012 than Jan 1st 2012. Last year I waffled and said couldn't tell, and the market did end about flat. This year I am not going to hazard how low the market goes. It could move higher before lower. But with the election over by November, pretty much the hype of the next president will be over, and the market can take a nice dive, like it did in 2008.

2) Commodity prices will bottom in 2012 - there will be a pattern of a low hit in 2012, with the CRB index moving up from that low set in 2012 at the end of 2012. This will be the setup for a hell of a 2013 that no one will forget. This index represents commodity prices in USD terms. (This includes Gold, Oil, and food.) This will be key setup for the inflation issues ahead.

3) The worst of China's financial crisis will come to pass in 2012. A new regime will take over, and plans for creating the worlds largest consumer nation will be center stage. China's stock markets will bottom in 2012. In effect, China will throw down the gauntlet at replacing the USA as world economic driver. The transition will take years. This setup by China will move from the corners of blogs to mainstream media. Expect China to take shots at USA like trade tariffs etc. It will be all positioning for them to take the upper hand in the world arena. The issue won't be why the tariff is justified or not. The issue will be China can do it and the USA can't respond in kind. It will in effect be a test.

4) The Euro will NOT be the same as it entered 2012. The nations bankrupt will be either kicked out of the euro, or a new two-tier model created, or a new Euro model that allows printing to finance debt emerges. The facade of all nations must adhere to fiscal responsibility will in effect be gone. The nations that need to print, can, either through the euro or on their own.

5) US, and Europe will be declared in a recession. The media has hinted, but this hasn't come to pass. Although this may be a "gimme" on my part, it is still an important event for the 2013 lineup.

6) US 30 year bond rates will NOT break out of the channel in effect since 1986. This is critical, for if we do break out of this, chances are most of my other predictions will be wrong.

7) US dollar will NOT break below the low in 2011 until after August of 2012 (or may not at all in 2012). With the election, there will be enough political spin to keep the dollar from crashing until close to the election. This is related to, but not tied to the previous item, Euro, China, and the market movements.

8) State and Town bonds will continue to deterioration as high quality choices for investments. I am pulling back from my 2011 prediction of a significant shift. Instead for 2012, predict more issues, more bankruptcies, and some interesting court rulings.

9) Since this is an election year, there will be a few TOKEN prosecutions around financial wrongdoing, but overall, we won't see the law enforced like we did back in the Savings and Loan crisis. Lack of law enforcement continuing is crucial for the 2013 crisis setup.

10) The end of the world will not happen, China will not declare WW3, and mass riots in USA will not happen. In a nut shell, 2012 won't be chaos erupting, but 2012 will be the layup for 2013+ for issues heating up. My 2013 predictions will make all previous years look tame. :)

There ya have it, 10 predictions. I covered the market, commodity prices, currencies (US and Euro), interest rates (bonds), corruption trend, China, and a tongue in cheek of end of the world stuff. If the end of the world does hit, then you can email me about such a failed prediction. :)

Recommend reading Mish's predictions that can be found here.

Karl Denninger's 2012 predictions below

2011 Prediction round up

noreply@blogger.com (WebSurfinMurf) — Fri, 30 Dec 2011 05:01:00 +0000

A fun tradition I have on this blog is making annual predictions and reviewing the outcome. I say fun guessing the timeline of reality unfolding does seem to be much more chaotic than I ever though possible. It is impossible to predict the extreme ways people will delay reality.

Original post 2011 predictions
2 Fail, 6 score, 2 partial score

2011 Predictions

1) Entering 2012, the public won't look at state and township bonds the same as they do today.
The State and City budget crises are here and now. We cannot get into 2012 without some precedents being set. Due to courts and the kick the can, we will have cities and states entering into bankruptcy-type scenarios but likely not resolved in 2011. The exact prediction is multiple cities and states will enter into financial heart-attack type crisis mode. The Municipal bonds will be in turmoil. Due to kick the can, I don't know if the federal government will step in and back everything or let this play out as it must. Because of these crisis, government unions will get attacked on multiple fronts.

Fail - Can kicked. We have the largest failure in US history unfolding right now, but the crisis in state and towns did not happen in 2011.

2) European Union will enter into crisis mode in 2011.
The world of international finance smells blood in the water, and they are biting at Ireland, Greece, and eventually Spain. The European union will have to face an all in by Germany and others to stop their collapse in 2011. This of course, will not work. But in 2011, we will have our answer if there is one more big kick the can attempt or not. I don't think the European union will fold in 2011. and the euro will stay in tact. The main reasoning is, there is plenty of options for more can kicking.

SCORE! 2011 played out to a T on above.

3) China will have some turmoil beyond what is expected.
China's policy of currency manipulation and not allowing their fiat currency to float is already backfiring. This policy allows America to do whatever they want, and China has to buy US debt. The severe inflation pressures China is already facing is starting a put-out-the-fire game, where new fires pop up as the central China planners try to put out old ones. I don't think China will melt down in 2011.

Again, plenty of room to kick the can for them also. The stage will be set in 2011 for the main event in 2012-2013. Prediction: The world view of China as leader into the next decade will get tarnished in 2011 as their massive fraud creates havoc for their financial bubble.

SCORE! China is imploding, and setting the stage for change OR more troubles in 2012-2013.

4) Canada, Australia, and other countries that avoided a real estate blow out in 2008-2009 will now get their turn.
The cracks are already forming. The world will learn that Canada is not different, and is more like other western countries for financial fraud and reckless loans. Australia and Canada will enter 2012 joining the western world financial turmoil, and lose their status as "better than the rest". At least one major bank in each country will have a crisis moment, resulting in their governments following America in socializing the private debt with public debt.

Partial SCORE! Australia property is bursting along with economy. Canada hasn't shown clear bursting, but does have clear bubble!

5) Gold, oil, and other resources will see unbelievable turmoil in prices in 2011.The price volatility will be amazing to look back this time next year. Individual commodities will get insane spikes as crisis occurs.

I actually have zero prediction if gold will end higher into 2012. By end of 2012, gold will be significantly higher. But since this is a 2011 prediction, I am going with higher, but I won't say 100% or 1%. The politics of 2011 will determine that.

SCORE! Look at copper, corn and other commodities, bubbles blown and burst. Gold started 2011 at about 1350 and is now around 1580

6) Food riots in certain countries will occur in 2011.
As resource prices destabilize, there will be civil unrest as the masses barely able to keep up with their bills have problems buying basic resources such as food and energy. Again, no global apocalyptic predictions. Just setting the stage for 2012-2013 with destabilization.

Triple Score! - Just look at all the countries that have changed hands and food prices also issue. Also some that haven't such as Greece but are teetering on implosion.

7) US bond rates stay within tolerance in 2011 as a guess, but if not all bets are off.
If US bond rates break out of the range established since Volcker in the mid 80's all bets are off. Once the US government loses control of it's credit worthiness, the entire shebang is thrown in the air. Anyone who knows how the politics will play out is fooling themselves or you. 2011 will be defined by the ability for the US government to keep its debt rating in this channel. Click here to view. The optimism comes into play as other countries have issues, making the US situation look less-bad.

SCORE! - US bond rates did heat up a little, but collapsed second half of the year.

8) The best place to be, all things considered, will be commodity stocks or related investments for 2011.But I am not committing to a buy and hold until 2012. Just that as this unfolds, there will be spikes higher before the game changes. The percent gains from now until the "top" in 2011 will be best in commodities.

Fail: Stocks entered and exited about the same on S&P 500 (flat) CRB (commodities) ended down. Safe to say most commodity stocks hammered last two months of 2011. Fixed income clearly won, congrats John! (Case for USD article)

9) US Dollar and stock market pricing I can't make a prediction on this time. There is so much at stake, so much at risk, so much global tensions building. I can't even guess at how the dollar and the market fares. I can say both will see significant volatility, and the market won't march up back to old highs UNLESS it is accompanied by resource prices soaring. If the market makes new all-time highs, in nominal terms of living standard, it is really a new low.
SPX won't go lower than 500, or higher than 2,000 in 2011. Best I'll do for a prediction. ;)

I'll take a score. I was wishy washy on this prediction. 2011 stocks and USD ended about flat!

10) More countries will fail or enact protectionist measures, exasperating volatility.

Partial SCORE: China has started just recently protection acts. Plenty of countries that have changed hands. But there hasn't been widespread failures or protectionist acts to the degree the line implied.

Greatest Crimes are publicly known

noreply@blogger.com (WebSurfinMurf) — Thu, 29 Dec 2011 05:01:00 +0000

The greatest crimes in human history are often perpetrated for all to see. The reason that these crimes are so egregious is they occur in a social environment that permits them by the public. (either overtly or lack of opposition)

Genocide is often committed openly with full knowledge of the population of the country and the world, as recent as Darfur.

After World War one, Germany openly attempted to pay off it's debts using it's printing presses until it's own currency imploded. That act eventually lead to Nazi leadership, and yet more genocide and invasions without repercussions from the west. (initially)

And in America, we have widely publicized acts of financial games without any opposition from the public (or world) in significant numbers.

Before my rant runs a muck in this post, let me get to the point. Don't assume that laws are being enforced, and that America is somehow guaranteed to be land of the free, with fairness to all. Without strict law enforcement for everyone, the US will slip into anarchy.

I have documented many of these games being played in my series Financial Ground Zero, with additional recent headlines below.

Attempting direct theft of serialized, documented, known property of account holders to pay off bad debts by MF Global. I have yet to see Former Governor Corzine have charges against him in the 10th largest fraudulent corporate default in US history! (or ANYONE! MF video on acts)

Enacting laws to effectively shut down news blogging by congress. - Quoting articles can be considered piracy. I for one will stop quoting articles, as my freedom is more important to me that my free speech. I suspect vast majority will conform like I will, to remain out of jail to be 'free'.....

Goldman Sachs offering products that on the face of it, should be predatory or fraudulent are OK.

Years after 2008 collapse, there have been ZERO prosecutions against any wrongdoing. I posted this before, compared to the S&L crisis in the early 90's with 1,000's of prosecutions with far less fraud!

Repeat direct violations of Capital One pursuing funds against lawfully bankrupt citizens without significant legal ramifications.

JPMorgan’s Swaps Occupying Cassino Prove Curse Like World War II

Federal Reserve bank lends 586 Billion to organizations it doesn't know. Illegal if US citizens foot the bill on bad loans! The US constitution clearly states only congress can appropriate funds.

Allegations by Elliot Spitzer that over 7.7 Trillion in loans given in secret, and uncovered years later thanks to persistence of Bloomberg. Bloomberg thanks for wasting your time, no one cares.

There is plenty of open evidence that the USA is headed for an unbelievable crisis. The issues are quite publicized even if no one is paying attention. When this comes to a head in the future, there is no excuse for Americans to be surprised. We have plenty of access to information through the internet, and all of these items have been published (not loudly) in the press and TV. Lack of law enforcement leads to consequences, as we are starting to see from MF Global.

Pay less attention to pop culture, more to what is happening in this country, and vote for true change, Ron Paul, before its too late.

This post has been added to Financial Ground Zero, for the success of Ron Paul may be the final political destiny of the 2013-2017 events.

Ron Paul

noreply@blogger.com (WebSurfinMurf) — Thu, 29 Dec 2011 02:35:00 +0000

Since the start of this blog, and before, I have held the conviction that the financial issues of the USA are a result of American politicians. And the politicians are a reflection of the population. For the citizens of the USA could choose leadership for true change.
Obama ran on a platform of change, but from my position, I don't see change from George W bush on a political level. Granted President Obama is more charismatic, well spoken, and does a great job of giving motivational speeches.
But from a financial stance, or law perspective, I haven't seen anything different that GW bush, with exception of a health care bill that doesn't start until past his (first?) term.

So what does this after to do with investing? Well, my stance that USD will hit problems in 2013-2017, and gold as good long term investment directly rest on the next president. For my view can completely change if the US elects a president who enforces laws, attempts to curtail spending, and laws affecting the Federal Reserve Bank.

From my perspective, there is only one candidate that could be elected that could provide true change, and that is Ron Paul. Sure, you can find something I don't like about Ron Paul. (Ron, gold is NOT MONEY!)
But that is BETTER than a candidate who tries to appease everyone, and doesn't provide true leadership.

So if Ron Paul does get elected, I have hope for the USD, and actually afraid gold collapses. For if the US becomes more fiscally sound, gold will lose it's fear play.

I'd still be bullish on natural resources, but not nearly as hard core.

I encourage you to watch the "third chapter" in this video, when Ron Paul speaks on the Jay Leno show.
For we the people can change the future, if we truly want change.

As Mish covered, the media is of course slanted against Ron Paul, as he is not the candidate of appeasement. To read more see Ron Paul Did Not "Walk Out" of CNN Interview; Blatantly Biased Headline by Time Magazine; Six Reasons to Vote for Paul

Further Ron Paul in some polls dominates over other republican candidates, but is marginalized by the republican party.

To donate or find out more about Ron Paul, visit http://www.ronpaul2012.com/

This week in no charts

noreply@blogger.com (WebSurfinMurf) — Mon, 26 Dec 2011 06:23:00 +0000

This week I don't bring any charts. First, I am being lazy. Second its the last week of the year, and I suspect charting this next week is pretty much useless.
So lets look forward shall we?
If gold etf GLD fails to break below 150, there is a very good chance that this is a near term bottom. Seeing that Oil has not collapsed is not encouraging.
Hedging into gold is not a bad idea here, as 2012 may bring unintended consequences from this money printing party started in 2009.

The worst case for this economy isn't a market drawdown back to SP500 at 800 or so.
The worst case is a rising costs in commodities.

This is the last thing that should happen right now. China's economy has popped. So has Australia.
And its no secret that Europe hasn't had a good time of it as of late.
Further, the public news media hints at a new recession in the USA.

All of this combined spells falling commodity prices as the major countries contract.
Therefore if the USD starts to fall, and/or commodity prices fail to lower, we could be starting to see some hangover from free money.
Gary of the Smart money tracker is calling for gold to go much higher if this is the case. I encourage readers to pay for his services to read his thoughts.

I am not so sure. If Ron Paul actually gets some traction as I previously posted, we may have some USD optimism.
I think the moment Ron Paul is being sidelined in the nomination, we'll have out answer.

Gold up, USD having a hard time keeping its level, and markets mixed or down.
All we need is Peak Oil, USD issues to drive oil higher and that should really put a strangle hold on the USA.

If we d start to see Gold firm up, this will likely be the last reasonable entrypoint, gold thereafter will look crazy to buy at levels at that time.
This is why i encourage everyone to buy some gold (GLD).

Oh, and this week, my best guess is up. Why? Who could possibly be left to sell going into this not so good outlook for christmas.
if there isn't sellers, by definition, there are more buyers than sellers.

OK...I Lied...here is a chart EVERYONE should pay attention to. I'll likely reprint this again in another post.
Food for thought about commodities.

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

Mr Bean Merry Christmas

noreply@blogger.com (WebSurfinMurf) — Sat, 24 Dec 2011 20:49:00 +0000

There is plenty of time to resume my doom posts on December 26th. :)
For now happy holidays, a Mr. Bean clip, and a clip of the classic fireplace.

Buy Low, Sell High

noreply@blogger.com (WebSurfinMurf) — Thu, 22 Dec 2011 13:41:00 +0000

I have mentioned natural gas as a resource that has been beaten up. Previously I dabbled in buying the ETF UNG. (natural Gas).

Well that didn't work out as planned, granted i didnt buy at 120 a share, closer to 10 bucks a share, but here we are touching 6.75 a share.

Timing is everything of course. But the question is, how low does this go? At 6.75 a share, every 50 cents is a major swing, percent wise. Also it is possible that this ETF is simply broken. (mechanics of the etf).

I see opportunity, at this price I am thinking a bottom has happened or will be seen in the next few months. Unlike many other resources natural gas flows 24 x 7, and there is no "savings" by producers to not sell. So amid any demand weakness vs supply the price drops, to sell all production.

It is one commodity I think is pretty hard to manipulate. If you like the idea of buy low, sell high, well, I think everyone agrees looking at this chart, we are in the low zone. The only question is, will it ever be high?

I think so, just a matter of time.
Click here for latest UNG chart.

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

The End Game

noreply@blogger.com (WebSurfinMurf) — Thu, 22 Dec 2011 06:22:00 +0000

Looking ahead to next year, I see a few big drivers.
First is Europe, can they keep it together to not fall apart until after US elections.
Second is the US economy, China, and Europe, how deep does the next deflationary rabbit hole go?
And last is American politics.

If we get more Obama/Bush, its more huge deficits and a race to the bottom for the US currency. The only candidate where that is not the outcome is Ron Paul.
Ron Paul is many things, but one thing he is beyond a doubt, pro-fiscal responsibility.
I will ignore the whole "gold is money thing", for I hope that is a complete non-starter if he is elected.
Other than that, him cleaning house means a SOARING USD, also a market collapse as reality is brought back, by restoring fake accounting rules instituted in 2009 under "emergency" conditions.
Apparently the emergency will last forever, unless Ron Paul is elected to re-instate sane accounting.

Either way, I really cant see a soaring market in 2012. I also can't see a collapsing dollar into the election IF Ron Paul gains legitimate status for president.

And I can't see gold soaring if Ron Paul is a contender, for if there is fiscal discipline, gold is not a required hedge.

Anything could happen, there are so many factors. But the end game for this entire debacle is with the next president of the USA. For that president won't be able to kick the can like Obama did "one last time" for 4 years..

The dirty secrets are out, the banks, governments, and financial corporations are under scrutiny. The people are awaking to what I realized back in August 2006. And once they get to where I have been for years, the can kicking will be called BS, and reckoning day will finally arrive.

No, we won't die en mass, and there won't be mad max, but there will be an "adjustment" to the realities of the serious topics pressing the world.

For now, CASH is still king, and some gold is OK, until it crosses below the uptrend line.

This Week In Charts

noreply@blogger.com (WebSurfinMurf) — Mon, 19 Dec 2011 05:01:00 +0000

Gold is a buy, with a stop loss, market still indecisive.

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2