Talk to me $ABSI – you gonna get through long term resistance (spec play on watch). pic.twitter.com/gCP659cj8K

— Ryan (@ryanmathews) February 16, 2025

$RXRX volume over the last few months should have caught my eye. no position: pic.twitter.com/dyelnWa0Z5

— Ryan (@ryanmathews) February 16, 2025

sell off a little more please $RDDT

— Ryan (@ryanmathews) February 16, 2025

I love the $SPY tightening bollinger bands? strong leg coming? who knows, but looks good. pic.twitter.com/3OGEyQpeaE

— Ryan (@ryanmathews) February 16, 2025

$SMCI finished week strong. I sold on Friday, but want back in on pullback. pic.twitter.com/P0cfzxLUXj

— Ryan (@ryanmathews) February 15, 2025

love $UI products . filled my house with it and have a medium position: pic.twitter.com/eokbxFDqK2

— Ryan (@ryanmathews) February 5, 2025

Adding trailing stop to $HIMS . Overbought, but nicely comes back to support ranges for long-load-up pic.twitter.com/Nvsl6CmDue

— Ryan (@ryanmathews) February 5, 2025

I continue to add $DUOL on all pullbacks. Near full position. DUOL speaks my language and blasting through all time highs pic.twitter.com/XvtM7FzcR9

— Ryan (@ryanmathews) February 5, 2025

also sold a little early $BROS pic.twitter.com/PjuRvFGLHg

— Ryan (@ryanmathews) February 5, 2025

Watching for $AAPL for possible move through horizontal resistance. pic.twitter.com/qNxrEYvF3p

— Ryan (@ryanmathews) February 12, 2025

From Perplexity:

Key Events Likely to Impact the U.S. Stock Market This Week (February 10–14, 2025)

The U.S. stock market is poised for a critical week as investors navigate a mix of economic data releases, corporate earnings reports, and policy developments. Below is a detailed breakdown of the most significant events that could shape market movements this week.

Inflation Data: Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI)

CPI Report – Wednesday, February 12
The January CPI report will be released midweek and is expected to provide crucial insights into inflationary pressures:
– Core CPI (excluding food and energy) will be closely monitored to assess underlying inflation trends.
– A higher-than-expected CPI reading could signal persistent inflation, potentially leading the Federal Reserve to maintain its current interest rate levels for longer. This would likely weigh on growth stocks.
– Conversely, a softer inflation print could boost equities by raising hopes for future rate cuts.

PPI Report – Thursday, February 13
The PPI report will follow on Thursday, offering a glimpse into producer-level inflation:
– Rising PPI figures could indicate cost pressures for businesses, potentially impacting profit margins.
– A decline in PPI may ease concerns about inflation, supporting market sentiment.

Retail Sales Data – Friday, February 14

Retail sales data for January will be released at the end of the week. This report is critical for gauging consumer spending trends, which account for about 70% of U.S. GDP:
– Strong retail sales figures would suggest resilient consumer demand, which could lift consumer discretionary stocks.
– Weak sales data might raise concerns about slowing economic growth and its potential impact on corporate earnings.

Corporate Earnings Reports

This week marks a pivotal period in the Q4 2024 earnings season, with several high-profile companies set to release their results:

Key Reports to Watch
– Monday, February 10: McDonald’s (MCD), ON Semiconductor (ON), Monday.com (MNDY).
– Tuesday, February 11: Coca-Cola (KO), Shopify (SHOP), BP (BP), Lyft (LYFT).
– Wednesday, February 12: Cisco Systems (CSCO), Super Micro Computer (SMCI).
– Thursday, February 13: Airbnb (ABNB), Roku (ROKU), DraftKings (DKNG).

Key Themes
Tech and AI Investments: Companies like Cisco and Super Micro Computer are expected to provide updates on AI-driven infrastructure investments.
Consumer Spending Trends: Reports from McDonald’s and Coca-Cola will offer insights into consumer behavior amid elevated inflation.
Market Volatility: High-beta stocks like Coinbase and DraftKings may experience sharp post-earnings price swings.

Investors will analyze these reports for guidance on sector performance and broader economic trends.

Federal Reserve Commentary

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress this week:
– On Tuesday, Powell will appear before the Senate Banking Committee.
– On Wednesday, he will testify before the House Financial Services Committee.

These appearances will be closely watched for any signals regarding the Fed’s future monetary policy stance. With interest rates currently held at 4.25%–4.50%, Powell’s comments on inflation and labor market dynamics could influence market expectations about potential rate cuts or prolonged pauses in monetary easing.

Geopolitical Developments

Geopolitical risks remain a wildcard for markets this week:
– Trade Policies: President Trump’s recent tariff announcements on Mexico, Canada, and China have rattled markets. While some tariffs were temporarily rolled back last week, ongoing trade tensions with China remain a concern as retaliatory measures are expected.
– Energy Prices: Volatility in oil prices due to geopolitical instability could affect energy stocks and broader market sentiment.

Market Sentiment and Technical Levels

Last week saw all major U.S. stock indexes close in the red:
– The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.54%.
– The S&P 500 declined by 0.24%.
– The Nasdaq Composite dropped by 0.53%, while the Nasdaq-100 managed a slight gain of 0.06%.

Investors will monitor key technical levels this week as markets react to economic data and earnings reports.

Conclusion

This week presents a high-stakes environment for the U.S. stock market as critical economic data releases, corporate earnings updates, and Federal Reserve commentary converge. Inflation reports will likely set the tone for interest rate expectations, while retail sales data and corporate earnings will provide insights into consumer behavior and sector-specific trends. Investors should brace for heightened volatility as markets digest these developments.

Citations:
[1] https://pune.news/market/3-key-economic-events-that-could-impact-markets-this-week-feb-10-14-2025-303753/
[2] https://www.dallasfed.org/news/speeches/logan/2025/lkl250206
[3] https://pune.news/market/most-anticipated-earnings-releases-for-the-week-of-february-10-14-2025-303755/
[4] https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/3-economic-events-that-could-affect-your-portfolio-this-week-february-10-14-2025-1034330233
[5] https://tradingeconomics.com/earnings-calendar
[6] https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20250129a.htm
[7] https://www.marketscreener.com/news/latest/Week-Ahead-for-FX-Bonds-U-S-Inflation-Data-Fed-Comments-in-Focus-49003270/
[8] https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/most-anticipated-earnings-this-week-%E2%80%93-february-10-14-2025-1034330258
[9] https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/20250207_mprfullreport.pdf
[10] https://www.riotimesonline.com/economic-calendar-key-market-events-for-the-week-from-february-10-to-to-14-2025/
[11] https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0011

Although 2024 was strong, the back half of December showed weakness with multiple down days on strong volume. Now we sit at a fairly significant inflection point.  The trading range is tightening up horizontally and SPY is sitting on horizontal support.  Do we roll over and take the next leg down?  Maybe.  Let’s see how the rest of the week plays out.  In the meantime, I’m looking for discounts on quality stocks.

SPY: Watch 584 for support

SPY Daily

The SPY weekly chart paints some underlying weakness that has been there for a while.  Although we’re still in an uptrend and holding above EMA21, RSI and MACD have been weakening for quite a while.  The RSI peak was in April with another in July that was slightly below April.  Since then, SPY has been up, but RSI has drifted flat to down (divergence).  The same can be said for MACD.  Also note the volume has weakened, as well.  I interpret this as a fairly strong break of the uptrend to the downside more likely than a continued move up.  I’m not ready to go to cash, but my positions all have trailing stops so I don’t get caught bag-holding. 

SPY Weekly

Vertiv Holdings Co. engages in the design, manufacture, and service of critical digital infrastructure technology that powers, cools, deploys, secures and maintains electronics that process, store and transmit data. It also offers power management products, thermal management products, integrated rack systems, modular solutions, and management systems for monitoring and controlling digital infrastructure. It operates through the following segments: Americas, Asia Pacific, and Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA). The Americas segment offers critical infrastructure and solutions, integrated rack solutions, and services and spares. The Asia Pacific segment includes products and services sold for applications within the data center, communication networks, and commercial or industrial markets throughout China, India, and the rest of Asia. The EMEA segment sells products and services for applications within the data center, communication networks and commercial/industrial markets. The company was founded on February 7, 2020 and is headquartered in Columbus, OH.

I like VRT over 121.25

Eaton Corp. Plc is a power management company, which provides energy-efficient solutions for electrical, hydraulic, and mechanical power. It operates through the following segments: Electrical Americas and Electrical Global; Aerospace, Vehicle, and eMobility. The Electrical Americas and Electrical Global segments engage in sales contracts for electrical components, industrial components, power distribution and assemblies, residential products, single and three phase power quality, wiring devices, circuit protection, utility power distribution, power reliability equipment, and service. The Aerospace segment produces aerospace fuel, hydraulics, and pneumatic systems for commercial and military use. The Vehicle segment deals with the design, manufacture, marketing, and supply of drivetrain and powertrain systems and critical components that reduce emissions and improve fuel economy, stability, performance and safety of cars, light trucks and commercial vehicles. The eMobility segment designs, manufactures, markets, and supplies electrical and electronic components and systems that improve the power management and performance of both on-road and off-road vehicles. The company was founded in 1911 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.

I like ETN over 348

GE Vernova, Inc. is a electric power industry. Its products and services generate, transfer, orchestrate, convert, and store electricity. The firm operates through the following segments: Power, Wind and Electrification. The Power segment includes design, manufacture, and servicing of gas, nuclear, hydro, and steam technologies, providing a critical foundation of dispatchable, flexible, stable, and reliable power. The Wind segment includes wind generation technologies, inclusive of onshore and offshore wind turbines and blades. The Electrification segment includes grid solutions, power conversion, electrification software, and solar and storage solutions technologies required for the transmission, distribution, conversion, storage, and orchestration of electricity from point of generation to point of consumption. The Company was founded November 09, 2021 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

I like GEV over 348

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc engages in the provision of semiconductor businesses. It operates through the following segments: Computing & Graphics, and Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom. The Computing and Graphics segment includes desktop and notebook processors and chipsets, discrete and integrated graphics processing units, data center and professional GPUs and development services. The Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom segment includes server and embedded processors, semi-custom System-on-Chip products, development services and technology for game consoles. The company was founded by W. J. Sanders III on May 1, 1969 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, CA.

I like AMD over 127.69

— Ryan (@ryanmathews) June 15, 2024

Good interview with Lori Calvasina:

Life Expectancy by income level. Pretty shocking:

Eye-opening chart, what explains such large difference in life expectancy between England and the US? pic.twitter.com/hSpTiVahcT

— Michael A. Arouet (@MichaelAArouet) June 22, 2024

Good for next Apple iPhone cycle?

How many phones out there are due for an upgrade or how many models behind are the majority of iPhones?

Look at all the models 11, 12 and 13. That’s 77% of iPhones users who have a model that will be 3-5 years old. pic.twitter.com/92PqC3pcsN

— Eric Soda (@EricSoda) June 17, 2024

Bitcoin has been a beast:

Various sectors and investment assets back to the pre-COVID peak up until today. Take a look at some of these returns. Far outperformance from Bitcoin and the Mag 7. Look at the fall non-profitable tech has taken from mid-2021 to now. pic.twitter.com/jxHqJVTJAg

— Eric Soda (@EricSoda) June 17, 2024

Future of Biological Computing:

Does this say anything about housing market? Maybe outside of US.

90 days of carnage in lumber markets. pic.twitter.com/uDO8L4PXql

— Stinson Dean (@LumberTrading) June 21, 2024

This seems bad:

We are now at 459 consecutive days (and counting) of record global sea surface temperatures, beginning March 14, 2023.

This mayhem started well before last year's El Niño had any influence. Expecting ocean temperatures to return to their pre-2023 levels this year is a fantasy. pic.twitter.com/qY4xgUyJ6l

— Prof. Eliot Jacobson (@EliotJacobson) June 16, 2024

Hopeful news:

I’m late with this post, but it’s better late than never to talk about India and its undeniable growth.  I’ve always been a U.S. centric investor and probably always will.  However, my neighbor is from India and many of the teams I work with throughout the week live in India.  The message from all of them is clear and aligned – although India has a long and bumpy road ahead, their economy is growing and a rising number of citizens are improving their economic status and purchasing power.

A recent article from Goldman Sachs identifies three takeaways that make India an attractive investment opportunity:

• Growth Momentum
  India continues to outperform major economies. Its strong growth story is underpinned by reform efforts across sectors, favorable demographics, and supply chain shifts.
• Investment Appeal
  Increasing digitization and maturing capital markets, supported by technical tailwinds like global bond index inclusion, are strengthening its appeal as an investment destination.

• Opportunity Amid Complexity
  Investors should be selective and use on-the-ground expertise to navigate India’s complexity, including an upcoming general election, and rapid economic and societal change.

As you can see from the chart below, India’s economy is on a strong, upwards trajectory after many decades of minimal growth.

Is now the time to take on some India exposure in my investment portfolio?  I believe so.   The easiest way to do this is through a broad ETF.  The most traded ETF is INDA.  The expense ratio is a little high (.65%), but INDA is still probably the best way to dip your toe into India equity markets.

From iShares:

• Exposure to Indian equities: Gain exposure to large- and mid-capitalization companies in India.
• Targeted access: Seek to express a granular view on Indian stocks and growth of a major developing economy.
• Complement your portfolio: Use to customize your emerging market exposures with a targeted exposure to India.

A look at the weekly chart shows that INDA has had a strong run over the last year – really wish I had picked it up in 2023, but oh, well.   However, I’ll likely add a small position as soon as this week and see where it goes from there.  This will not be a trade, but instead a long-term buy and hold.

India Weekly Chart

 NOTE: For informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services.

Auction Date: 5/30/2024

Issue Date: 6/4/2024

US 4 Week Bill Yield

Friday’s Core PCE Price index was better than expected as inflation numbers came in cooler than estimates (.3% vs .4% estimate).  Personal Income was higher than estimates and Personal Spending was lower than expected. Does this mean the Fed’s actions are working?  Are we finally going to tame inflation?  Is the bank scare out of the way?  Hard to say, but it does feel like inflation numbers are headed in the right direction without significant damage to employment.

Regarding banks, I’m not sure the problems are behind us.  It’s possible we’ve seen a little under the hood of what could be a less than stable banking sector.  We’ll see, but if there are more cracks in the banks, I’ll short the hell outa this market.

United States Core Pce Price Index MoM

source: tradingeconomics.com

So last week was great and all, but it’s about to get real.  This week’s economic calendar is packed and will make or break lots of risk-on trades.

Monday: ISM Manufacturing PMI

Tuesday: JOLTs job openings

Wednesday:  ADP nonfarm Employment Change, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims

Friday: Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate  (Market Holiday)

My focus this week will be to avoid giving back the gains from last week.  No need to be greedy.  I’m still largely in cash, although more exposed long than I was a month ago.  I’ll probably leave it that way and look for day trades and momentum stocks on earnings, etc.   There are a LOT of beautiful long chart setups, but unless upcoming data is strong, it seems more likely that these setups will fail in the short term.  However, some consolidation here would be constructive.

I added more VCSH last week and played a good number of long and short side SPY options for good gains.  Other than that, I’m exposed more long in my 401k and added more VOO to brokerage long-side account.

Trade ’em well.

Inflation continues to surprise to the upside, but consumers continue to brush it off.  Two things will likely play out here – either the consumer is able to spend their way out of a high inflation environment (inflation goes down to acceptable levels before consumer looses strength), or the economy will see a nasty fall off the cliff when consumer finally give up and stop spending. I’m still somewhere in the middle and admit I have no idea where we go from here. Data looks like crap to me, but the market continues to hold up, as does the consumer.

Look at this nonsense…  MoM CPI went up .6% vs .4% consensus.  Fed will not take their foot off the gas anytime soon and that data point confirms it.  Sure, .25% represents lowering the rate of Fed rate increases, but the latest numbers likely push out pauses or reversals further than anticipated just a month ago.

United States Core Pce Price Index MoM

source: tradingeconomics.com

Really, nothing has changed in the economy and most of my positions haven’t changed either.  A few themes I’m watching, however, included:

• There will be a good time to buy bond ETFs when the market numbers actually indicate an end to Fed hikes.  It may be a few months out, but I have BND, VCSH and SHY on my watchlist.
• Pullbacks in AI stocks should be interesting soon.
• Dividend payers are still a big focus point for me.

Big dates on the U.S. calendar this week:

• Durable Goods Orders on Monday morning
• ISM Manufacturing PMI on Wednesday morning
• IS Non-Manufacturing PMI on Friday morning

Trade ’em well.

The power of the consumer continues to hold up the market.  We are still spending and that’s great for the economy, but SOOO much of this spending is going into debt instruments like credit cards.  This is odd – the public generally feels that a recession is more likely than not in 2023, yet the spending is still strong.  Shouldn’t we be saving? Do we just not care or believe that debt has consequences?

Consumer Spending:

source: tradingeconomics.com

Retail Sales: 

Unbelievable

source: tradingeconomics.com

United States Debt Balance Credit Cards:

source: tradingeconomics.com

Personal Income:

So consumers are still spending, but the growth in personal income is slowing.  I don’t get it.

source: tradingeconomics.com

The following chart likely explains why, despite recessionary consumer data, consumers continue to spend and drive the economy forward.  For some reason, the consumer is growing in confidence.  Do we anticipate a short recession, a soft landing, or maybe no recession at all?  Regardless of the why, we’re collectively trying to ignore the reality – at some point, the American debt and inflation will come back to haunt us.

Consumer Confidence:

source: tradingeconomics.com

Last week, inflation data came in hotter than expected which adds to the narrative that the Fed will NOT stop rate hikes for some time and even longer to cut. The good news is that the rate of inflation continues to go down and maybe this is what the market (not economy) is focused on.

Inflation Rate:

source: tradingeconomics.com

So, where do we go from here?  I wouldn’t be surprised if we run up or if we crash into a heavy recession.  When the market data confuses me, I tend to spend more time as a technical trader/short term investor.  Lines and charts provide direction and strategies that I can follow and apply capital to.  Although I’m still very heavily in cash, I’ll continue to bounce in and out of short-term trends until I feel more confident in going long.

Trade’em well.