Unto the Dogs

Bosh Article (excruciatingly long for a blog post, but mercifully short for a Russian novel)

2010-05-07T11:52:00.002-04:00

Below is a sampling of trade scenarios involving Chris Bosh. The selection of teams which have been included is based on a scan of media reports, indicating possible destinations for Bosh. Based on the assumption that these reports have some degree (at least minor) of reliability, Bosh’s actual interest in each given team is not discussed in this article.

Obviously, there are likely millions of possible trade permutations involving Bosh. Here they have been distilled to one per team; this is in no way to suggest that these are the only ways a trade involving Bosh could work out. That said, every variation that is shown here would work under NBA roster and salary regulations.

Say Hello, Waived Goodbye

2010-03-25T13:26:00.000-04:00

The new MLS CBA has had a significant affect on the annual fun that is Roster Compliance Deadline day. In addition to the usual collection of bodies cut to trim roster numbers to 24, a few notable high-salaried players have also fallen under the axe. The new salary cap level could not accommodate veteran goalkeeper Jon Busch in Chicago, or Pat Noonan in Colorado.

Does the raft of waived players contain anyone Toronto FC might pull aboard their own listing ship?

Argos to BMO Field: Editorial Response

2009-11-29T15:13:00.001-05:00

Reports of the renewed interest of the Toronto Argonauts in a move to BMO Field have been met with near universal distain within the Toronto soccer community.

Personally, I do not suffer the reflexive apoplexy that most Toronto soccer fans do at the mere mention of the concept. BMO Field is owned by the City of Toronto. As a resident of that city, I would, theoretically, find it hard to object to another team contributing to the already impressive income generated by the facility.
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MLS Expansion: Mock Draft

2009-11-24T15:28:00.000-05:00

The following mock draft is based solely on what I would do were I making the choices, and has nothing whatsoever to do with what Philadelphia Union boss Peter Nowak will do tomorrow afternoon when the team selects its first ten players (unless, of course, he happens to read this blog, and has a keen eye for a true work of genius).
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2014 World Cup Cycle Player Pool – November 2009 edition

2009-11-22T17:40:00.000-05:00

The notion that there is a peak age for player performance in soccer, or any sport, is not a neat and tidy one. Whatever peak age is suggested – most often in the range of 27 or 28 – there are many exceptions. And yet, support for the notion of a peak age is not difficult to find. World Cup winning sides almost invariably have a disproportionate cluster of peak or near-peak players. The 2006 cup winners, Italy, fielded twelve players who were within two years of their 28th birthday.
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Canada 0 - 1 Poland: Game Notes

2009-11-18T14:31:00.004-05:00

Given what came before, it is hard to not be happy with Canada’s effort against Poland. This match was a largely evenly played until the final twenty minutes, when Canada slumped noticeably – understandable for a side with so many players either out of season or struggling to find first team football with their clubs. Ultimately, the two teams were separated by the one moment of brilliance on offer, a perfectly worked 19th minute goal by Poland’s Maciej Rybus.
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Growing (Old) Pains

2009-11-14T10:56:00.001-05:00

The careers of Canadian national team players have rarely ended gloriously – few, if any, have received a send off befitting their service to the team. It appears that Stephen Hart wants to change that: he wants to give Paul Stalteri the chance to retire as the all-time caps leader, and he wants the curtain to come down for Tomasz Radzinski in the country of his birth. This is laudable stuff, and very unlike the national team program of the past.

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TFC’s Playoff Hopes (If Any)

2009-09-01T12:16:00.002-04:00

Over the past month, the playoff hopes of Toronto FC have quietly faded. The results have not been terrible – in August, the team was level on goals in league play. Nevertheless, on the first of September, the club sits outside of the playoffs and looks likely to stay that way.

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Toronto 3 - 1 San Jose

2009-07-12T10:22:00.001-04:00

I wasn’t planning to blog about last night’s Toronto FC match – there are several hundred bloggers who provide match reports for every TFC match and I’m not in a great rush to be the several hundred and first – then Toronto scored its third goal, and the match rose to a level of comedy/ineptitude that I felt needed to be commented on.

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The Raptors: God Bows to Math

2009-07-09T11:31:00.000-04:00

The trade to be finalized today has not yet made the Raptors a better team; the two players the team added when the Hedo Turkoglu signing became a sign and trade are marginal at best. Neither is even as likable a player as Kris Humphries – the key extra player now departing in this four-team deal.

Instead, it is the sheer mathematical precision of the deal that is notable – and, it is the free agent options now back on the table that will give the Raptors a chance to become a better team.

The math is pretty breathtaking.

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2009 Gold Cup Group Stage – Canada 1 - 0 Jamaica: Game Notes

2009-07-03T23:00:00.001-04:00

- It was frustrating to see so many holdover players. In some far off – almost beyond the realm of the imagination – world, come Brazil 2014, is Paul Stalteri going to be the 36-year-old right back of the Canadian World Cup team? Is Patrice Bernier (a marginal player in his prime) going to start in midfield at 34? Will we see 37-year-old Richard Hastings warming on the sidelines? It’s time for the gold watch treatment for these, and other, noble servants.

The Long (Though Possibly Short) Goodbye

2009-07-02T08:41:00.000-04:00

I don’t follow the Raptors Fan Forums very closely (they are too numerous and too populous), so this may be old news in Raptorland, but, it’s time to start planning the farewell parade for Chris Bosh.

The Jays and Young Pitchers

2009-04-25T20:54:00.002-04:00

This week the Toronto Blue Jays pitching situation tipped past tragedy into comedy – a team that could have eleven solid pitchers has been reduced by six. For most teams this would be a freak occurrence – almost unimaginable – for the Jays it is just a few steps further down a familiar road. Jays pitchers, particularly young ones, suffer injuries with striking regularity.

The MLS Schedule and FIFA Match Dates

2009-04-24T06:50:00.006-04:00

No single element of the MLS world is as widely derided as the schedule – not the Beckham affair; not the consistently poor performance of MLS clubs in continental competition; not the absurd salary structure. The refrain – heard on many a podcast, read on countless blogs – goes like this, no serious league, anywhere on earth, schedules league matches on FIFA match dates: MLS is bush league.

This season, despite wide criticism and pressure from FIFA, MLS clubs will play (have already played) matches on FIFA dates. Unfortunately, with an odd number of clubs taking part in the 2009 season – greatly complicating scheduling – this could not be avoided. Could MLS right this wrong in 2010? The short answer is yes, but it wouldn’t be pretty.
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Chris Bosh: Can he be a Centerpiece Player?

2009-04-21T21:58:00.003-04:00

There has been much talk of late about the future of Chris Bosh in Toronto. With one year remaining on his current contract, this time next year (at the latest) he is sure to draw a new contract of maximum length and maximum salary. Which raises the question, can he still become a dominant player and the central figure of a competitive team?

What does a dominant Power Forward have that Chris Bosh does not? In the recent past, the league came through an era dominated by Power Forwards – according to 82games.com, the top three players in 2002-03 were Power Forwards – so there are no shortage of recent comparisons. Those three players – Kevin Garnett, Dirk Nowitzki and Tim Duncan* – have consistently been centerpiece players on successful teams.
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2009 Fantasy Projections

2009-04-20T21:11:00.002-04:00

Follow the link for fantasy projections for the 2009 Major League Baseball season. Obviously, these are posted later than would be ideal - the spreadsheets and formulae were much more complicated than initially expected, and adapting them for posting here was also a complex process - but, they are free.
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USL-1: Time for a Canadian Takeover?

2009-03-25T21:05:00.009-04:00

The title of this article is (as always on this blog) hyperbolic, but it does touch on a reality; outside of the Canadian contingent, this has been a difficult year for the USL First Division. The confirmation that Vancouver and Portland will move to MLS in 2011 was just the most recent bit of bad news for USL-1. In the past year, the league lost another keystone franchise in Seattle, faced the suspension of club operations in Miami and Atlanta (as of March 18th, one was in, one out for 2009), and had another key franchise, Rochester, face financial uncertainty. Contrasted against these problems, the runaway success of the USL in Canada begs the question, could the USL benefit from more Canadian content?
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TFC: State of the Roster

2009-02-10T21:02:00.007-05:00

So, I’ve been holding off writing this post for six weeks at least. Every time I sit down to write about the state of the Toronto FC roster, I find a fresh article quoting Mo Johnston, claiming that new players are on the way, “Aye, we got two more boys we’re looking at…”.

TFC: State of the Roster

Looking at the Toronto FC roster, it is important to remember that an ideal roster would offer four options at most positions, and five options at striker and central defense – since these are often two spots. In its short history, TFC has borne this out; lacking proper depth, they have often been left short due to injury and international absence.
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So, how bad was it?

2008-11-22T12:46:00.006-05:00

Obviously, this goes without saying - but this qualifying round was not a great success for Canada. They gained two points from six matches. They went the full group round without a win. Overall, they finished level on points with Suriname, although they did edge them on goal difference – a worthy accomplishment indeed. And yet, despite the ugly numbers, those who portray the campaign as five hundred and forty minutes of consecutive blunders are mistaken – less went wrong than most believe.
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2014: Could It Be Worse?

2008-10-15T18:18:00.004-04:00

Since long before this qualifying campaign began, I have had a great sense of impending doom. This was not just because all of my past experiences told me I should; it was also because of the feeling that this was it; this was the window of opportunity. If Canada were to miss out this time, the Greatest National Team ever assembled would go to waste, and the personnel losses would mean that we would be back to square one.

Was I right to feel this way? How is the player pool going to look come the 2014 cycle. Will Canada be forced to start Chris Pozniak at attacking midfield? Will Canada need to call Garret Kusch back from the training table to strike the ball?

As it turns out, no. I may not have been right to tear my hair. It may be too early for many Canada fans to try to think positive; but there really is no reason to suspect the 2014 team will look much weaker on paper than the current one.

Who is likely to return and who is as good as gone?

Here is the current pool; every player Dale Mitchell called (ex. Martinique).
- Included is the approximate age of the player in 2014.
- In brackets is a player of similar age during the 2010 cycle (or before).

Very Likely to Return
Julian de Guzman, 33 (same age as Daniel Imhof, circa. 2010)
Marcel de Jong, 27
André Hainault, 28
Atiba Hutchinson, 31 (Patrice Bernier)

Likely
Iain Hume, 30 (Bernier)
Issey Nakajima-Farran, 30 (Bernier)

Probable
David Edgar, 27
Lars Hirschfeld, 35 (Pat Onstad, circa. 2003)
Dejan Jakovic, 29
Will Johnson, 27
Mike Klukowski, 33 (Jim Brennan)
Nik Ledgerwood, 29
Jaime Peters, 27

Possible
Asmir Begovic, 27
Dwayne De Rosario, 36 (Tomasz Radzinski)
Rob Friend, 33 (Corazzin & Peschisolido, circa 2004)
Kevin McKenna, 34 (Randy Samuel, circa. 1998)
Josh Simpson, 31 (Bernier)
Joshua Wagenaar, 29

Unlikely
Patrice Bernier, 34
Adrian Cann, 33
Rhian Dodds, 34
Ali Gerba, 32
Kevin Harmse, 30
Olivier Occean, 32
Tam Nsaliwa, 32
Chris Pozniak, 33
Adrian Serioux, 35
Kenny Stamatopoulos, 34
Greg Sutton, 37

Very Unlikely
Jim Brennan, 37
Richard Hastings,37
Daniel Imhof, 36
Ante Jazic, 38
Pat Onstad, 46
Tomasz Radzinski, 40
Paul Stalteri, 36

Using only the players Probable or better, this would be a potential lineup.

------------------Hirschfeld

----------Hainault-----------Edgar

Ledgerwood-----------------------------de Jong

---------Hutchinson--------de Guzman

--Peters---------------------------Nakajima-Farran

------------Hume------------Johnson

Adding Possible players to the above, this would be a potential lineup.

-----------------------Hirschfeld

---------------Hainault----------McKenna
--Ledgerwood------------------------------de Jong

--------------Hutchinson--------de Guzman

Nakajima-Farran-------------------------De Rosario

---------------Johnson
---------------------------------Friend

Hume
Peters
Simpson
Edgar
Jakovic
Klukowski
Begovic/Wagenaar

Interestingly, even without adding any new recruits, the 2014 squad looks fairly complete, though not stellar.

Obviously, there would be room for improvement, but the only true shortage is at Centre Forward. Olivier Occean and Ali Gerba will be both be thirty-two before the 2014 World Cup. Rob Friend will be 33. Canada has rarely, if ever, had an effective striker of that age. Paul Peschisolido and Carlo Corazzin were both 33 when they ground to a halt with Canada in 2004. Dale Mitchell played fairly effectively to 35, but largely played in midfield toward the end of his career. John Catliff and Alex Bunbury were long retired from internationals by 32.

It is true that Canada may have wasted the prime of Julian de Guzman and Dwayne De Rosario, but both are decent bets to carry on to the next cycle. It is comforting to note the comparables: de Guzman will be the age in the 2014 cycle that Daniel Imhof is now; De Rosario will be the age that Tomasz Radzinski is now. Both will likely change as players, but neither should be written off.

Possible Additions: early candidates

Dale Mitchell has maintained a veteran squad in this cycle, rarely including younger players in his selection. Despite that, his pool included 4 players from the 2007 U-20 squad and several more from the 2005 team. It is next to impossible to project the future of players who will not turn 20 until 2011, but one has to assume that several players will be added to the squad between now and 2014. Ages are as of 2014.

Nana Attakora, 25 D
Brandon Bonifacio, 25 M
Mike D'Agostino, 27 M
Ethan Gage, 23 D/M
Tyler Hemming, 29 D/M
David Hoilett, 24 F
Simeon Jackson, 27 F/M
Paris Nakajima-Farran, 25 D/M
Andrew Ornoch, 29 F/M
Tosaint Ricketts, 27 F/M
Tyler Rosenlund, 28 M
Adam Street, 23 K

2014 Squad: early estimate, very early estimate

As nice as it would be to imagine that great young players might fall from the sky, very few players who are not already on the radar at this moment (October 2008) will be involved in the next qualifying cycle. This time out, Mitchell called in 29 players for qualifying matches, and virtually all of them were kicking around 4 years ago. Coming into 2008, 19 had played in previous qualifiers; 1 had debuted for the Senior Team before the last cycle, but was not used in qualifiers; 2 had played for previous U20 teams (1 in 2001, 1 in 2003); and 3 were involved in a series of U20 friendlies in 2003 and 2004.* That leaves only three of 29 players who had yet to be involved in a National Team program by 2004. These were Adrian Cann, Dejan Jakovic and Issey Nakajima-Farran. So, I wouldn’t stake my life on calling the entire future lineup; but, I also wouldn’t expect 30 new players to appear.

Keepers
Asmir Begovic
Lars Hirschfeld
Adam Street
Joshua Wagenaar

Defenders
Central
David Edgar
André Hainault
Dejan Jakovic
Mike Klukowski
Kevin McKenna
Wide
Nana Attakora
Marcel de Jong
Tyler Hemming
Nik Ledgerwood
Paris Nakajima-Farran

Midfielders
Central
Julian de Guzman
Ethan Gage
Atiba Hutchinson
Tyler Rosenlund
Mike D'Agostino
Wide
Dwayne De Rosario
Simeon Jackson
Issey Nakajima-Farran
Jaime Peters
Josh Simpson

Forwards
Rob Friend
David Hoilett
Iain Hume
Will Johnson
Andrew Ornoch
Tosaint Ricketts

Off the top of my head, this pool looks very promising. I would say – just spit-balling – that: the wide midfielders and keepers look like a wash compared to this year’s squad; the wide defenders and central midfielders look weaker; and the forwards and central defenders could be significantly stronger. At the very least, I think we can imagine being in with a fighting chance in the next cycle. Some comfort, though not much.

The imperative is to cut ties with the older generation of players, those Very Unlikely to be around, as well as several of the Unlikely set. Especially since friendlies will likely be hard to come by for the next two years at least. The CSA can set the tone for the next four years by dimissing with thanks – or not – the old guard in advance of the Jamaica match.

*
- 1 debuted for ST before last cycle, was not used in qualifiers = Rob Friend
- 2 played for previous U20 teams = 2001, Ali Gerba; 2003, Nik Ledgerwood
- 3 in U20 friendlies 03&04 = Marcel de Jong, Andre Hainault, Josh Wagenaar

Canada v Honduras: Thoughts in Advance of the Match

2008-10-11T12:07:00.002-04:00

It is a little hard to blame Dale Mitchell for his selections this time out – given the raft of forced absences to the squad. No team in CONCACAF save Mexico (but including the US) would look great with this many absences in midfield; arguably Canada is missing six of its ten top midfielders*. It is a little hard to blame Mitchell for his choices, but not impossible.

The problem comes down to the choice to include Kevin Harmse, Chris Pozniak and Dejan Jakovic. Obviously, under normal circumstances, none of these players would have been included – but, given the circumstances, Mitchell has genuinely been forced to move this far down the depth chart. In fact, in dire circumstances, it is not too hard to come up with a case for including each player. Harmse brings some steel and has performed decently of late in central-defence. Pozniak is a Swiss-Army Knife (or the off-brand-dollar-store-Chinese-import equivalent of a Swiss-Army Knife). Jakovic is likewise flexible, and additionally could step into central defence in a pinch/disaster. Ultimately, Mitchell has chosen all three players because he has rightly seen a severe shortage in the centre of midfield, and wrongly over-compensated for the shortage.

The upshot of this over-compensation is that Canada is left short at attacking midfielder, centre forward and on the wings (though, one must keep in mind that, despite reams of evidence to the contrary, Mitchell does still believe Patrice Bernier is a winger.)

Another (read: A qualified) Head Coach would have made the glaringly obvious choice to include Will Johnson in place of Harmse or Jakovic, and thus shored up all of the shortages in Mitchell’s selection. Which means, once Mitchell has made his standard like-for-like substitutions (ie Iain Hume for Tomasz Radzinski and Ali Gerba for Rob Friend) Canada will once again be left without a single attacking substitute.

- As dire as the midfield situation will be against Honduras, it will be interesting to see if Atiba Hutchinson can step up and become a dominant force. He sees little of the ball when he shares the centre with Julian de Guzman; and often seems lost when Dwayne De Rosario joins them, playing centrally. With neither in the lineup Hutchinson has a real chance to stamp his influence on the match. A dominant performance from him is Canada’s best chance of taking three points in Honduras.

For what its worth, here are the chances that Canada can qualify for the hex:

With a victory at Honduras, 23 of 81 possible outcomes would see Canada level on better on points; 14 of 81 permutations would see Canada ahead, 9 level (making goal differential key).

With a draw at Honduras, 3 of 81 possible outcomes see Canada level or better; 1 ahead, 2 level.

With a loss at Honduras, chances are nil.

Ideal Lineup (Assumes McKenna understudies at Striker)

---------------Hirschfeld

-------Hainault-----Hastings

Stalteri-------------------Klukowski

-------Hutchinson--Bernier

Ledgerwood-------------Radzinski

----------Gerba------Friend

Mitchell-being-Mitchell Lineup

---------------Hirschfeld

---------Hainault-----Hastings
Stalteri---------------------------Klukowski

-------Hutchinson----Harmse

--------------Radzinski
Bernier------------------------de Jong

----------------Friend

* The obvious absentees are: Julian de Guzman; Dwayne De Rosario; Josh Simpson; Issey Nakajima-Farran; and Daniel Imhof. The sixth, arguably is Adrian Serioux, though one could certainly argue the merits of Tam Nsaliwa (not Jim Brennan).

Thoughts in advance of Canada v Mexico

2008-09-09T23:18:00.001-04:00

- So, occasionally doing research is a mistake. Here I was trying to feel better about Canada’s chances on Wednesday night. Sure, they must win in Mexico – but at least the match isn’t at Azteca. Well, as it turns out, upon closer inspection, Canada is no better off at Tuxtla Gutierrez.

In the last five years, Mexico has 17 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss on home soil (with 70 goals for; 12 goals against). At Azteca, 6 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss (16 goals for; 4 goals against). Elsewhere in Mexico, 11 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses (54 goals for; 8 goals against). If anything they’ve performed better away from the big city. Away from Azteca, they’ve had an average goal differential of 3.5, more than double their average differential at Azteca. (Of course, they tend to save Azteca for tougher opponents; the average FIFA rank of their opponents there was 20 spots higher.)

Worse news: Mexico has pounded on middling teams like Canada everywhere they’ve hosted them. Against teams ranked 56 to 106 (25 spots either side of Canada’s current rank) they are 7-0-0 (22 goals for, only 4 against).

- I was amused by Dale Mitchell’s comment, that he is, “contemplating getting [Dwayne De Rosario] out on the wing to try to get him in a 1-v-1 situation”. Like the Titanic’s Captain was contemplating steering around the iceberg.

Luckily, Mitchell may have no choice but to improve his squad choices against Mexico. As far as I know (as of 11 pm Tuesday) he will need to add Issey Nakajima-Farran and Oliver Occean to the match day squad in place of Patrice Bernier and Tomasz Radzinski. By my count, that is two attacking players added and one subtracted (I’m sure Mitchell would prefer fewer, but I digress).

- The real coffin nail from the debacle on Saturday was that Honduras gained 3 road points. In a sense, Canada would have been better to lose to Jamaica and draw Honduras. In all likelihood Jamaica would never have reached 9 points regardless; whereas, Honduras is now virtually guaranteed 8 points, and with even a little luck they’ll take ten.

- The lineups are pretty speculative: they assume Issey is healthy and Mitchell is an idiot.

Ideal Lineup

---------------Hirschfeld

--------Serioux------Klukowski

Stalteri----------------------Brennan

-------Hutchinson--de Guzman

Issey---------------------De Rosario

---------Gerba------Friend

Mitchell-being-Mitchell Lineup

---------------Hirschfeld

--------Serioux------------Hastings
Stalteri---------------------------Klukowski

-------Hutchinson----de Guzman

------------- De Rosario
Issey------------------------Brennan

---------------Friend

What Can A National Team Head Coach Do?

2008-09-07T11:59:00.001-04:00

Let’s be honest, a national team head coach cannot do a lot to affect his team’s success. With limited time and limited access to his players, he is not going to have a great effect on the quality of players on the pitch. In fact, even the tactical instruction that he imparts will not have a huge impact given these constraints. For the most part, his players will only have the quality and the tactical knowledge they bring with them from their club experience. This is doubly true for a Canadian coach, given that he will have greater time and access limitations than most.

What does that leave? The only cards the international coach has to play are squad selection, substitution, and inspiration. These are the limited tools available to him to separate his squad from the fray. It is Dale Mitchell’s total failure in use of these tools that warrants his immediate removal as the Head Coach of the Canadian National Team.

Against Honduras, Mitchell’s squad choices – both starters and bench – were poor, and were exposed to disastrous effect. The tandem of Adrian Serioux and Richard Hastings was ineffective throughout. Mitchell should not really be blamed for performance: Serioux repeatedly lost the plot completely, and both were terrible closing players down. However, had Mitchell asked himself, ‘who are my best defenders’ or ‘who is most important to their club’, he would have landed on Jim Brennan alongside Mike Klukowski, with one playing centrally. He was stuck with Serioux, perhaps, but including Brennan would have been a marked improvement.

Mitchell’s selection of Patrice Bernier, and, more vitally, his positioning on the right flank was ultimately ruinous. Bernier is simply not effective as a true winger – he rarely plays outside of central midfield for his club – and, as a result, the right side was a black hole, narrowing the Canadian attack, and allowing Honduras to slide its left-sided players more to the centre in defence, disrupting Canada’s dominant central players. Mitchell could easily have chosen Bernier and played him centrally, moving Julian de Guzman forward, sliding Dwayne De Rosario to the left, and swapping Radzinski to the right. He didn’t, and the error was compounded when Tomasz Radzinski was removed due to injury, and Iain Hume – the only winger on the bench – was forced into the match early into a rare, awkward stint on the left.

This pointed to the worst mistake Mitchell made against Honduras: the substitutes bench. Mitchell was always going to make a striker for striker swap, and Radzinski and Hume essentially share one spot, so for all intents and purposes Canada did not even have one extra attacker or midfielder. When Canada went down a goal in the 56th minute, they did not have a single card to play for offence. True, the camp squad didn’t offer many options – since Issey Nakajima-Farran was clearly out of form – but if Mitchell had selected Oliver Occean for match day, he could have subbed Occean in for Bernier and moved to a 4-4-2 with De Rosario and Hume on the wings. The obvious additional question is why Nakajima-Farran wasn’t replaced in camp. True, Josh Simpson has yet to return from injury, and Jamie Peters is in no man’s land, but Will Johnson could have been brought in a moment’s notice, and, as it turned out, could have filled a vital role.

Finally, it would be difficult to imagine a less inspirational figure than Dale Mitchell. Before the match Dale Mitchell was visibly the most nervous man in the building; high in the running for most nervous man in the country. During the match, he shuffles impassively, but does nothing to rally or embolden his team. The contrast between Mitchell and Stephen Hart, who was so forceful and animated when he led Canada in its only recent positive form, could not have been more stark.

Yes, there are terrible institutional problems, both at the CSA and at CONCACAF, that make the job difficult, perhaps impossible, for a Canadian coach. The consistently arbitrary and unfair group draws; the lack of friendly matches; the lack of funds; the poor venue selection: these, and other, challenges may make it impossible for Canadian squads to qualify. At the same time, it is hard not to imagine that a Rene Simoes-led Canada would have banked four or six points by now.

Give Dale Mitchell a shot to pull off a miracle in Mexico. After he fails there, fire him, promote Stephen Hart to head coach, and bring John Limniatis – currently the only successful Canadian-born coach in football not named Frank Yallop – into the program as an occasional assistant coach.

Personal Reflections: Before Canada v. Honduras

2008-09-06T09:56:00.003-04:00

This must win match (and make no mistake, it is a must win) has me a little stressed. That may be why, today, I am questioning the tried and true; or a least, the tried and somewhat factual.

I think – despite past successes in the formation – it is time for Canada to take a one match hiatus from the 4-5-1. Given the decent form (either for club or country) of three strikers, the lack of good options for the fifth midfield spot, and the need to play to win, Canada should employ a 4-4-2 versus the Hondurans.

With Daniel Imhof unavailable, Issey Nakajima-Farran out of form, Iain Hume reserved for late-match use, and Patrice Bernier worsening by the day (I know this is harsh, but my heart sank a little when his name was announced before the Jamaica match) it is time to see what Ali Gerba and Rob Friend can do as a tandem force.

Moving beyond the midfield, my second source of stress is at the back. Against Jamaica, my heart sank further when Richard Hastings was announced. As the match wore on this feeling did not lessen as the opponent had an uncomforting amount of success inside the 18. I know that CONCACAF opponents are not generally known for their quality in the air (and Jamaica was no different) but the Canadian central defenders were notably weak on balls played to heads. Again, I know Germany is not on the qualifying schedule, and this weakness might not affect Canadian’s chances, but it may affect the health of my heart tissue.

I understand, and appreciate, that coach Dale Mitchell likes how Hastings moves the ball – and this is a nice quality to have – but not at the expense of sound marking. Given Kevin McKenna’s club status, I would call for an 85% chance of Hastings around 8pm in Montreal, and a 70% chance of a Hastings - Adrian Serioux combination. I will understand the choice, but I sure won’t love it.

Source of stress number three is the keeper situation. This could easily be source of stress number one, but I am trying not to think about it. Ultimately, I don’t think Mitchell can be faulted for his selection no matter who he chooses. There are no perfect options here. Prayer is likely the one I’ll choose.

Source of stress number four was added to the mix just this morning. Through the Voyageurs board I was linked to a YouTube video of goals from past Honduras – Canada matches; I was stuck with terror by more than just the hairstyles. Honduras has been good for at least one penalty kick per match. I had to stop watching before seeing Amado Guevara do his thing. Not a good feeling.

So, now that you’ve read all of this, have a good day, and a great match. For what it’s worth, and on the upside, I genuinely feel that eight points will be good enough to advance in second from this group. Check out group 1 from 2006 qualifying for a comparable situation: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_(CONCACAF)

Ideal 4-4-2 Lineup

---------------Hirschfeld

--------Serioux------Klukowski

Stalteri----------------------Brennan

-------Hutchinson--de Guzman

Radzinski------------------De Rosario

---------Gerba------Friend

Less than Ideal 4-5-1 Lineup

---------------Hirschfeld

--------Serioux------Klukowski
Stalteri----------------------Brennan

-------Hutchinson--Bernier

--------------de Guzman
Radzinski------------------De Rosario

---------------Friend

Mitchell-being-Mitchell Lineup

------------------Onstad

--------Serioux------------Hastings
Stalteri---------------------------Klukowski

-------Hutchinson----de Guzman

------------- De Rosario
Bernier ---------------------Radzinski

---------------Friend

Canada v. Jamaica: Thoughts on the Selections

2008-08-14T17:17:00.003-04:00

Little to quarrel with here; the team looks very good. In the long term, it would be ideal for Lars Hirschfeld to get back into his club side – and back into the national team pool – but, since Greg Sutton and Pat Onstad have been in decent form, that is not pressing.

Ideally an 18-man squad would offer three options at each position, in case of disaster. For the most part this selection meets that requirement – if you allow that Kevin McKenna could fill in as a target forward in a pinch. The only minor shortage is at right-back. Adrian Serioux has performed well there with his club of late, and Paul Stalteri is solid, but both have a certain proclivity for red cards. If Tam Nsaliwa were available he would be a worthwhile alternative to Patrice Bernier, and would shore up the right. The best available option, Nik Ledgerwood for Iain Hume, is less attractive. Given the givens, Dale Mitchell has settled on the best possible squad.

Forwards

Rob Friend is the obvious favourite to start here; against Brazil he finally brought his improved club form to Canada. Despite his club issues, Ali Gerba could hardly be left off given his recent scoring rate for Canada.

Adding Olivier Occean, Andrzej Ornoch and David Hoilett to the mix, Canada could soon have quality depth up front for the first time since Alex Bunbury joined Dale Mitchell and John Catliff.

Midfielders

A wealth of good options present themselves in midfield. Dwayne De Rosario, Julian de Guzman, Atiba Hutchinson and Tomasz Radzinski are all givens, and, the question of who the fifth midfielder will be has four decent answers. Patrice Bernier or Daniel Imhof could be added to the central midfield or Iain Hume or Issey Nakajima-Farran could play out wide. Hume is best suited to the substitutes’ bench and Bernier took a step back last season, leaving the likely choice between Imhof and Nakajima-Farran.

Issey Nakajima-Farran has yet to impose himself on a Canada match, and has not shown flair to rival De Rosario on the left, but he is a streaky scorer for his club. Daniel Imhof is a safe, trustworthy choice who plays at a high level. Since this is a home game – and should be played to win – expect to see Nakajima-Farran make the start.

Defenders

The back four holds the only potential for Dale Mitchell to make a major misstep in his selections. He has been too loyal to Richard Hastings, who lacks the height to justify his inclusion given his lack of pace. Hastings should be seen as a depth player.

Mitchell should find room for both Jim Brennan and Mike Klukowski. This would involve shifting Klukowski to central defence, where he played several times for his club this past season. Both players tackle well and are good on the ball, and Brennan is strong on set pieces – not an abundant skill in this squad. Since Mitchell has yet to attempt this arrangement do not expect to see it for this match.

Ideally, Mitchell would pair Klukowski with McKenna, who has rarely appeared for Canada under the Mitchell. This would be a good pairing of a fast player with a tall one. However, given his recent selections, it would not be a surprise to see Hastings and Serioux start the match.

Paul Stalteri is a given to start at right-back.

Goalkeepers

Its a bit of a toss-up between Greg Sutton and Pat Onstad, but Onstad and the Houston Dynamo have been on a tremendous defensive run, having conceded only 2 goals in their last 8 league matches.

Ideal Lineup

---------------Onstad

--------McKenna------Klukowski
Stalteri----------------------Brennan

------Hutchinson------Imhof

--------------de Guzman
Radzinski------------------De Rosario

---------------Friend

Mitchell-being-Mitchell Lineup

------------------Onstad

--------Serioux------------Hastings
Stalteri---------------------------Brennan

-------Hutchinson-------de Guzman

---------------De Rosario
Radzinski------------------Nakajima-Farran

---------------Friend