Hello, my name is Bob, and I may be the only University of Maryland Graduate who never took Psych 101 at CP.  Despite knowing nothing about psychology, I’m going to attempt to make some sense, but please take it with a grain of salt.  I don’t have near the expertise that some of my fellow alumni’s may have on the subject.  With that tongue in cheek endorsement, it seems to me that it is human nature to seek out patterns.  To tie independant events into related occurances.  It is why we as a people are such sticklers for superstition. 

Think back in the day.  A farmer out toiling in his field walks back to his hut, and in his path is a black cat.  Two days later his family gets the plague and all die.  It must have been the black cat right?  We just can’t grasp that things are sometimes randomly determined.  There has to be a cause and effect, and if there isn’t we’ll dig around until we find one.  Now here we are 700 years later and we still fall into the same traps!  Should we be wiser…YES, are we?  No!

And here is why.  The last few years of Maryland Football have been pretty prosperous (relatively speaking) and as a result a majority of our home football games have been played in pretty ideal conditions.  No one can ever prove this, but I think a few years back I went two straight seasons wearing shorts to every home game.  I remember because I was stupid enough to wish for a cold weather game.  Anyway, human nature..good times…good weather.  They are related.

Flash forward to 2009, we have had a few decent weather games, but overall each tailgate/home game has been an adventure.  Even the nice weather ones have been touch and go (trust me I’ve been doing these forecasts for a long time, never have I seen so many 3 day forecasts change as drastically as they have this year).  So bad time begets bad weather.  Makes perfect sense right?

Well this Saturday could be the ultimate example of how the weather and Maryland Football are related.  Earlier in the week this was looking like an awesome day, not a cloud in the sky, not a drop of rain in the forecast, but each day that outlook has grown a little more questionable.  Thousands of miles to our South a tropical wave started to gain some rotation, then it became a little better organized, and then it developed winds of over 45 mph and was named Ida.  It brushed the Yucatan Pennisula and headed north.  It gained wind speeds to over 100 mph but was torn apart by less than ideal upper atmospheric conditions.  It limped to shore, luckily as a Tropical Storm.  And then it decided to head to the Mid Atlantic.

Whenever there is a wild card like a tropical system, it makes any kind of long range forecast a guess.  Will it move this way, or will it move that way.  As much as we’ve learned about Hurricanes in the last century we still don’t know exactly where they want to go, but we are getting closer.  For Ida, she wants to come to College Park.  Not for a brief 12 hour visit, but for a lingering annoying house guest length of time.  Will she be out of here by Saturday, who knows.  The forecast yesterday for VT was all sun, now it’s cloudy with a 20% chance of rain.  If I know my superstitions, and I know my 2009 Football season, don’t look for sunny skies on Saturday, just yet.

With that, lets get on to the forecast.  The average high on November 14th in College Park is 58 F.  The average low is 40 F.  The record high is 77 F which means we are now to a point in the year where it has never been 80 F or higher.  So long early to mid fall.  The record low is 19 F.  The forecast is for 63 F which is actually pretty good, and the forecast low is 50 F, again not bad.  But our once sunny cloud free day is now mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain.  With so much uncertainty this may be a forecast that bears watching over the next few days.  Because whatever does happen on Saturday, isn’t going to be what was predicted on Wednesday morning.  But based on our football season, I think we know which way it’s going to go. 

Extra Droppings:

Due to the combination of Ida’s remenants and a low off the coast, the National Weather Service is predicting Ocean City could see waves up to 20 feet high later this week.  If we didn’t have the game, I think I might head down to check that out.

Greivis Vasquez

When you think of Maryland Basketball these days, the first player that pops into your mind is Greivis Vasquez.  And as well he should.  If the Terps make a decent run in the ACC tournament and NCAA tournament, there is a very likely chance Greivis will leave Maryland as the school’s #2 all time scorer.  If you notice on the side bar of this website, we will be tracking Greivis’ climb through the ranks game by game.  Entering this season, he has been mentioned nearly everywhere, including the Naismith Watch list and the Wooden Award watch list.  There is no doubt that the Terps will only go as far as Greivis can lead them.  Vasquez led the Terps is scoring, rebounding, and assists last year.  Vasquez reigned himself in a little bit last season, and it showed.  He made much better decisions with the ball and did not force the action if it wasn’t there.  By doing that, he cut his turnovers down by almost half.  I don’t see any reason, Greivis doesn’t repeat where he left off last season.  He spent the summer playing for the Venezuelan National Team after going through the draft process.   I expect to see him out there 32 minutes or more per game, and to lead the Terps in scoring again.

Eric Hayes

Fellow Senior Eric Hayes returns, and likely will return to the starting point guard position this season after coming off the bench for most of last season.  Eric was a major reason the Terps were able to win a couple games in the ACC Tournament, and the victory over Cal in the NCAA Tournament.  He showed a confidence in himself, he hadn’t shown during his career.  There was no doubt he could shoot the open jump shot (39 % from 3 for his career), but late last season he really began attacking the basket and getting into the lane.  If he becomes the consistent player he was late last year, the Terps could have the top back court in the ACC.  Hayes,and Vasquez for that matter, will likely finish their career in the top 5 free throw percentage leaders in school history if they shoot at or near the levels they have up to this point in their careers.  In fact, if Hayes graduated last year he would have the top spot.  Hayes is getting a bit of a slow start this preseason as he is recovering from turf toe that kept him out of some of the off season workouts.  I expect Hayes to be out there 26-30 minutes a game.  He is really a steadying force for Grievis at times, and gets the team into the offensive flow.

Sean Mosley

There was no doubt Sean Mosley knew his role last season.  That was to defend, and rebound, even though he moved into a starters role.  This year, all reports indicate he is ready to show why he was the number two all time scorer for Maryland high school basketball.  He has one year under his belt, and it almost sounds like he truly believes he belongs now.  Not that this means much, but he was the leading scorer in the Terps exhibition game.  He doesn’t need to be the leading scorer, but if he can score enough to keep the oposing defense honest, it is going to help the other players on the floor.

Adrian Bowie

Bowie is going to most likely be the first guard off the bench.  With the versatility of Hayes, Vasquez, and Mosley, when Bowie enters, he will run the point.  He has more speed than either Hayes or Vasquez, and has shown he can easily get into the lane or to the basket.  The problem is there were plenty of times where he steam rolled a defender on the way.  The reports out of the preseason workouts say that Bowie has really worked on his outside shot.  He has stated he is trying to get more arch on the shot so he can get it over the front of the rim.  If he shows any kind of improvement on his shot over last season, his defender will have to respect his shot more, and give Adrian an advantage to get to the basket.  He should see close to 20 minutes a game off the bench, and if things are slowing down he can provide a spark offensively and defensively.

Cliff Tucker

Cliff could really be the “X factor” for this team.  At times last year he showed his explosive scoring ability that showed while he was so highly regarded when he came into Maryland.  At other times he appeared to be in Gary Williams’ doghouse.  I don’t really get it.  He seems to play more defense than Mike Jones, so I can’t see that being the problem.  I honestly think the real problem is purely numbers at the guard/small forward positions.  This is very unlikely, but if certain situations don’t pan out the way the Terps would like in terms of Dino Gregory, Tucker could be part of a true four guard lineup for a few minutes here and there if any of the bigs are in foul trouble, and someone needs a breather.  I don’t really know where Cliff is going to fit in the rotation.  There is no doubt he could come off the bench and light it up, but Gary seemed reluctant to give him consistent minutes last year.  I think that will be different this year, and he will provide some big scoring games off the bench.

There you have a look at the scholarship guards.  They have the talent and experience to really help the Terps be among the ACC’s elite teams this year.  I think the starters are pretty well set, the question will be how will Gary use the guys off the bench.  There are only so many minutes and Vasquez is not going to leave the court for expended periods of time.

Check back tomorrow for a look at the big men.  There will be a look at the walk-ons at a later time.

Even with Turner in the game the Terps were kept in the game in the first half thanks to a 70 yard TD return of an interception by Alex Wujciak.  It was the first defensive TD in over three years.  In the second half, Torrey Smith helped keep the game close with an 82 yard yard kick return for a TD.

Though the defense did allow 482 yards of offense, they did force three turnovers today.  That is two weeks in a row they have done that, but the results remain the same.  This weeks killer was the yellow lingerie on the field.  The Terps committed  10 penalties for a  season high 91 yards.  Several were killers, including a hold on a would be TD by Davin Meggett, and an offensive face mask on a 30 yard pass to Torrey Smith.

I am tired of recapping losses, so just know they did.  What we can take from this game is Jamar Robinson might be a capable QB after all.  He showed he has the arm to throw deep, though he did over throw a pretty wide open Isaiah Williams that could have been a touchdown.  He certainly showed he can take off and run with the ball when he is under pressure.  He did manage to lead the team in rushing with 38 yards.  Most importantly, with the inexperienced offensive line allowing him to get pressured any time he dropped back, he did not look scared, and made his throws even knowing he was about to get hit.  He has the athleticism I think we  have all been waiting for since Ralph Friedgen took over at Maryland.  He has one thing Turner doesn’t have, the ability to keep a play alive when pressured.  Sure he had a couple of throws that weren’t on target, but I wouldn’t mind see him getting a start next week, the only problem is that Virginia Tech comes to town, and I would hate for him to get his first career start against him.  At this point if Turner is not 100% healthy, I think they need to go ahead and give him starter reps in practice and see if what this kid has.  Even if his stats weren’t great today, he showed me a lot of toughness, when he took those hits in the pocket, and lowered his head on a run to pick up the first down.

So with the all the season’s goals out the window, it will be interesting to see if there is a shift in playing time for more of these younger kids.

The offensive play calling was a little more imaginitve today.  I did like some of the calls, and had Williams been able to get a little more on that WR pass, Adrian Cannon would have had a TD, and maybe we are talking about a win, but the way this season has gone, it does not surprise me.  The one thing I liked, was the quick screens to Cannon and Smith.  There is no doubt they can make some people miss once they get the ball.  That has to help spread the field for the running backs.

Well there are three games left, and there is a real chance this could be a 10 loss season for the Terps.  A number I never really thought I would see under Coach Friedgen, but with games against VT, and BC at home, and a trip to Florida State, it could very well happen.  So with that good news, I will remind you the Basketball season tips off on Friday!!!

The irony is that growing up I’ve thrown thousands of bales of hay, yet whenever I hear the word I think of the NC State Game.  The Clay AIken reference is from him being the Grand Marshal of the Christmas Parade in Raliegh that closed our hotel off as if it were the Marriot Waterfront in Annapolis the day after Hurricane Isabel.  The point is, there are countless memories from these match-ups, but 2009 isn’t going to be one of them.  Even if we have a “The Band is on the Field” finish, it still won’t make any difference in the long run, and that’s sad for both loyal fan bases. 

I’ll probably get crap for this from my Maryland Friends, but I have always seen a lot of similarities between us and NC State, outside of the similar color scheme.  In fact a little known fact, I was actually accepted to NC State, I wonder how different my life would be had I choosen to go there?  Anyway, I’m getting away from the point of this post which is to look at this weekends weather.

In Raleigh, on November 7th the average high is basically a comfortable 65 F.  The average low is 42 F.  On this particular November 7th, the predicted high is 65 F (right on the average) and the predicted low is 31.  Not exactly average.  In fact that is below freezing.  I’m not even sure we’ve hit 31 yet at my house this year, but we might have a few weeks ago.  The moral of the story is those who are tailgating for this one are going to be cold.  

Now the good news is that it should be sunny.  I guess it only rains for our home games.   With the 1 pm start (I think we play at one, or should I say we all need to log on to our computers at 1:00) that means the tailgate is going to be cold for those hanging out for the full 6 hours.  But by the time the Football team takes the field it should be pretty comfortable for this time of year. 

So there you have it.  A nice sunny late fall North Carolina Day.  Ironic considering the unsettled atmosphere surrounding both programs.

Extra Droppings:

Well my nightmare has come true.  The Yankees have won the World Series.  Worst of all the ratings for this years WS were excellent.  Of course Bud Selig will see this and deduct “Hmm the larger market teams draw better in the World Series” and any hope of baseball becoming anything other than a Free Market nightmare will be swept away forever.  Congratulations Yankees, your 220 Million Dollar Payroll bought the World Series.  But if you want to be considered a great franchise, try winning it all with the Twins payroll.  Then I’ll be impressed.

Georgia Tech- The Yellow Jackets lead all ACC Teams with a 5-1 record.  In fact as I mentioned in the other post, no other ACC School has 4 wins, so the fact that Tech has 5 really says something.  In a year where parity seems to be king, the Yellow Jackets are doing their best to stand out.  Looking ahead for Paul Johnson and his crew, the Jackets finish up taking on Wake Forest, and then finishing out the ACC Schedule with Duke.  Both games I can see Georgia Tech winning.  At this point they are clearly the team to beat, but what is scary is that GT vs. Duke in two weeks could have a drastic impact on the ACC Season.  Who would have circled GT-Duke in August as a must see game (Well hypothetically, I’ll probably watch something else).

Duke- Believe it or not, the Blue Devils are 3-1 in conference and actually hold their own destiny since they play Georgia Tech still.  I don’t know what to think of this Duke team, but it’s hard not to think they have peaked and are about to be exposed.  They take on UNC next which isn’t exactly daunting, but I can’t see them topping Georgia Tech.  Assuming they do, they have Miami and Wake waiting on the other side, so if they were to beat the Jackets, any celebration would be entirely pre-mature. 

Miami- I say this a lot about ACC schools, in fact I just said it in the last paragraph, but the Dr. Jekyl and Mr. Hyde award for 2009 has to go to the Canes.  Some weeks I find myself thinking “Oh crap, Miami is back” and then other weeks they look like the team we’ve grown accustomed too since we brought them into the league.  At 3-2 I can’t rule out Miami, and their schedule seems to match up well for them.  The Cane’s finish against UVA, UNC, and Duke.  Literally a Wine and Cheese Buffet.  If GT does stumble, I would give Miami the nod for the team who’d pick up the ball, but their loss to VT earlier in the year could be their achilles heel.

Virginia Tech- Speaking of the Hokies, here they are.  VT is sitting at 3-2 which I’m sure they are not happy about, but the Hokies hold an important card.  The beat the Hurricanes, which could be key.  Unfortunately though, the Jackets hold that same card over VT, so GT will have to stumble, not once, but twice to revive VT’s chances.  The good news for the Hokie fans (who probably have someone reading this to them) is that Michael and Marcus Vick didn’t really go to VT afterall, oh wait yes they did and they both proved to be huge embarrassments, so that isn’t good news.  But all kidding aside VT has a nice finish to their schedule.  They play (only looking at the ACC games) Maryland, NC State, and UVA.  Not exactly murder’s row.  So keep the faith Hokies, you could still get to Tampa, but anytime you are counting on Wake and Duke to come through for you (to beat GT) you can’t like the spot you are in.

UVA- Nothing is impossible, but UVA has a tough row to hoe if they want to remain in the hunt for the Conference Championship.  UVA is currently 2-2 which isn’t THAT bad, but look at how the Cavaliers finish up.  Miami, BC, Clemson, and VT.  The Wahoo’s would have to run the table to remain afloat, and I would bet that 2-2 out of those four would be a bit optimistic. 

UNC- The Tarheels are bringing up the rear in the Coastal Division.  I thought the Heels were going to have a strong year, so that shows what I know.  They are currently 1-3 and mathmatically out of the running.  The best they could do is 5-3 and the worst GT could do is 5-3 and GT holds the tie breaker.  On to basketball season for you all.  For those die-hard fans UNC will finish against Duke, Miami, BC, and NC State.  The NC State-UNC game has to have ESPN 360 written all over that barn burner (not that we can talk).

So there you have it.  Still plenty of time left, but my early lean is Clemson will take on Georgia Tech in Tampa for the right to play in a BCS bowl.  If I had to pick now, I’d say GT would win, but after watching them play Clemson the first time around, you know it’d be a hard fought battle.

Extra Droppings:

I’m not sure if I have said this or not, but with the Terps once again being on ESPN 360 and with me traveling to California, I may not see the Terps play on TV once this year!  That is an embarrasment.  If I have mentioned this before, well I don’t care.  It’s worth mentioning again.  I guess the FSU game could be televised, but at this point, I’d doubt it.

In the action on the court, the Terps, were able to hold off Division 2 foe, Indiana (PA) (something #25 ranked Syracuse can not say) 75-54.  Leading the way scoring for Maryland were Sean Mosley and Landon Milbourne, with 14 points a piece.  Greivis Vasquez chipped in 13 points, 6 boards, 5 assists, and 4 steals.  It seems, the do everything senior is ready to pick up where he left off.  With the absence of Gregory and Goins, the freshman bigs fared fairly well, with Padget scoring 8 points while getting the start, and Williams added 7 (5-6 from the line).  Granted the competition isn’t what they are going to see in the ACC, I will take those kinds of numbers out of them.  The best news is they seemed very active out there, especially on the boards.

With one week to go until the season opener, it will be interesting to see how the Gregory story unfolds.  It is also going to be worth noting how Steve Goins’ injured knee is healing.  If Gregory is out for an extended period, Goins could really provided a couple of minutes, and maybe more importantly some fouls for the Terps.  Last night, Jin Soo Choi got the back up minutes at the 4.  Let the fun begin!

I almost forgot I wanted to mention the Without Bias show from ESPN last night.  It was pretty much as I expected.  The one thing I had never seen before was anything with Terry Long.  That was the first I had ever heard anything from him.  It was always from Brian Tribble, and I never really believed his side of the story, but it seemed to go hand in hand with Terry Long.  Overall, it is just a sad story, and it didn’t go into as much Maryland bashing as I expected.  There are only 3 people who really know what went on that night, and there is probably one person (Tribble) who really knows how deep Bias was into drugs.  Any thoughts?

The first game airing on ESPN Classic is at 2:00 PM and is the 1984 game at UVA.  The second game is the 1984 game against Duke in the ACC Championship game.  The final game starts at 6:00 and is the game for which Bias may be remembered most, the 1986 game at UNC, where the Terps handed Dean Smith his first loss in the new Smith Center.

That will take you right up to the start of the documentary on ESPN, where you will get to relive the pain that quite possibly lasted until that fateful night in Atlanta when the Terps won the National Championship in 2002.

For me I was only 10 at the time of his death, and I remember watching it on ESPN in the morning.  I wasn’t necessarily a Maryland fan at the time, but I do remember seeing Bias highlights.  The sports side of it was small when you consider all the press it got every night, and single handily helped President and Nancy Regan start the “War on Drugs”.

I like to think my parents brought me up so I would never want to do coke, but if I ever needed any reinforcement, Len Bias certainly provided that for me.  When it comes time to have kids, and have that talk about drugs with them, you can bet Len Bias will be part of the speech.  In fact, if I could figure out how to record from a DVR to a DVD on my computer, I think the Carolina game, and this documentary might be part of the speech.

There are people who have been involved in Maryland Athletics far longer than I, and to this day, they still talk about the impact Bias’ death has had on the Athletic Department, and the campus for that matter, on how things are done.  While this is not going to be a happy tale, it is one every Maryland fan who wasn’t around on that day should see, to see where, forget about the basketball team or athletic department, how far the school has come.

Today I am going to look at the Atlantic Division, and hopefully follow up with a Coastal Division breakdown later in the week.  I’ll take a look at each team in the Division, their current record, who they finish up against.  I’ll also give my take on how they will finish, but I must say 2009 is not a good year to be predicting who beats who in the ACC.

Atlantic Division

Boston College- The team picked last in the Division is currently in the lead.  I don’t think you can ever write off the Eagles.  BC is sitting at 3-2 which is good enough for the lead, but hardly a record that is going to have any BC alum booking flights to Tampa, at least not yet.  BC is tied with Clemson, and Clemson actually beat BC, so I’d have to ask theacc.com where they get off putting the Eagles at the top, but that’s for another day.  BC finishes against UVA, UNC, and Maryland (que Soap Opera Organ Music).  Could they run the table?  I say yes, will they, well I don’t know.  But you have to say they are in a good spot.

Clemson- Next up are the Tigers, who as I mentioned above should techincally be in first.  Clemson is 3-2 and just has to be sick in their stomach everytime they think of their trip to College Park.  Without that head scratcher, this team would be 4-1 and in fine control with a win over the team in sole possesion of 2nd.  But you can’t go back.  Clemson is still looking like a strong Candidate to represent the Atlantic Division, they do finish against FSU, but if they can beat a mediocre FSU team, they will then finish against NC State, and UVA.  Both of which I believe they can handle.  If someone pointed a gun to my head and made me pick (and please don’t, I freighten easily) the Tigers would be my choice for the Conference Championship game.

Florida State- The Seminoles just can’t seem to get it together.  I just watched them scrap by a very poor NC State team with a half empty Doak Campbell (very funny…I had a brain fart and couldnt’ remember the name of their stadium so I googled it real quick, and someone did a photoshop of Doak Campbell on top of Alcatrez Island!).  But all that being said, the Noles are 2-3 and very much alive.  They do have a few more hurdles to jump however.  They face Clemson, Wake, and Maryland.  I’m guessing they need to go 3-0 in those three to have a real shot, but stranger things have happened.  My gut feeling is saying FSU out.

Wake Forest- Another team that looks like world beaters one day, and a Monty Phython film the next.  Unfortunately the day we stopped by Winston-Salem, they were the former.  Wake is in FSU’s shoes (that were probably stolen by the way).  They sit at 2-3.  They also have a tough two game stretch playing Georgia Tech (The Jackets have 5 wins, no one else has more than 3) and FSU.  The FSU game for all purposes will be an elimination game.  Then after that Wake will finish against Duke.  Only Duke and GT still only have 1 loss, but if Wake plays their best, Duke won’t be able to stop them.  Wake though is going to need some help getting to Tampa, and I’m not talking about “Travel Agent” kind of help.

Maryland- Can you believe we still have a shot?  Now granted my math could be wrong, but assuming (and this is a BIG assumption) that Clemson or BC are the only other 5 win teams, we would have beaten them both (BC because we would have run the table to get to 5-3)!  However, in order to do that we need to knock off NC State, then Virginia Tech, then FSU, and then BC.  I haven’t seen a line yet, but I’m guessing we are the underdog going into Raliegh, and NC State has yet to win a Conference game.  And that sentence right there sums up our odds.   For all intensive purposes, we are dead in the water. 

NC State- But at least we aren’t the Wolfpack (HHHoooowwwwwwlllll).  NC state, thanks for coming out.  You aren’t technically eliminated (they can still finish 4-4 and no one has a 4th win  yet).  But any 5-3 team will make your shot at the title impossible.  The good news for the Wolfpack is…..well when Maryland has a better shot than you in 2009, there isn’t any good news.  But you can still catch the Terps in the battle for last place, and the pivotal battle in that war will occur in Carter Finley.  So cheer up!  Oh yeah, NC State finishes against Md, Clemson, VT, and UNC.  Okay, maybe they are mathmatically eliminated.

So there you have it.  I’m giving the inside track to Clemson.  I can’t say I’m in love with that pick and I’m almost certain Novemeber will be just as crazy as October, which makes predicting anything in the ACC almost impossible, but I think Clemson has the best road.  I guess we’ll see in a few weeks. 

Extra Droppings:

A reminder to please check out Chris and I on Raycomsports.com.  If you leave a comment on either of our posts you are eligible to win a $250 or $100 dollar giftcard.  And any post you leave increases the popularity of our posts and really helps us out, so even if you don’t win, you would still be doing us a solid.  Also all people who post are eligible to win a $38 T-shirt from any ACC school of your choice.  So far everyone I know who has posted for us, has eventually won one.  Just saying.

Where I do think it is advantage, is it gives Gary Williams a reason to have a chip on his shoulder.  You know he will be ready to show everyone his program is back and to be reckoned with again.

One other note regarding the Terps Basketball team is, Patrick Stevens reported Steve Goins sat out today’s scrimmage with a knee injury.  It appears to be related to the knee surgery he had in August.   Happy Halloween!