Travis' Forex Blog

EUR/USD: Standing Aside

noreply@blogger.com (Travis's Blog) — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 21:10:00 -0400

As I am writing this post price is breaking through neckline of Head And Shoulder pattern. I will go long after a retest of this level with a target of 1.4260 which is the 161.8 Fib level. If price fails to hold above the 1.4118 after a break I will look to take a small short. Stay tunes for live trade updates on twitter.

EUR/USD: Long @ 1.4003

noreply@blogger.com (Travis's Blog) — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 23:31:00 -0400

I have been out of the market for some time. I took a long position in the EU after the upper trend line proved to be strong support with two four hour candles failing to close below it (see H4 chart). I also noticed a Head and Shoulders reversal pattern depicted in H4 chart. I will take some profit if and when price reaches the neckline. If price violates and retests the neckline as support I will move my stop up about 30 pips below the neckline. Alternatively, I will be looking to go short if price breaks and retests 1.3747 level. Stay tuned to twitter for live trade updates.

EUR/USD: Standing Side with short term bullish bias; -42 pips last trade

noreply@blogger.com (Travis's Blog) — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 22:52:00 -0400

Economic data out of the Eurozone and the United States weighed the dollar down today. US existing home sales increased for the second month in May. European purchasing manger indexes shrank by the least amount since the inception of the recession. As a result, risk appetite increased which always hurts the dollar. I was stopped out on my last trade for a -42 pip loss. I will be looking to go long, as long as price finds support at the 1.400 level which corresponds with the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement level at 1.4001. The bullish triangle reversal pattern played out today with a break of the upper trend line of that formation (See 1 hour H1 chart). My target if this plays out will be 30 pips below the 138.2 Fibonacci extension level at 1.4186. I will be looking to short the Euro at this level. Stay tuned on twitter for real time trade updates.

EUR/USD: Short @ 1.3863

noreply@blogger.com (Travis's Blog) — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 20:22:00 -0400

I waited to go short until I got more of a signal from price action. I entered at 1.3863 and my overall target will be 1.3500. I plan on taking some profit at 1.3760 and brining my stop down if price makes it there. I may add more to the position after a break and retest of 0.0 Fibonacci level at 1.3745. The weekly and daily stochastics are currently in bearish cycles, which support bearish bias at the moment. Stay tuned on Twitter for live trade updates.

EUR/USD: Standing Aside

noreply@blogger.com (Travis's Blog) — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 21:18:00 -0400

I haven’t posted for the last two days because I was sick. I am standing aside for now because it has been pretty tough to determine a clear direction in the EU. The EU is currently trading in a bullish ascending channel depicted on 1 hour chart (H1) and a hammer just printed on H1. My plan is to short EU at 61.8% retracement (1.4012) with a target of 1.3750. The daily chart stochastics have begun a bullish cycle but price remains below the 21 exponential moving average (EMA). I would suggest “sitting tight” until price reaches upper trend line of triangle depicted on H4 and daily stochastic finish current bullish cycle. I plan on adding GBP/JPY analysis to my blog posts as soon as I become more comfortable trading this pair. Stay tuned on twitter for real time trade updates.

EUR/USD: The Bears are in control!!!!

noreply@blogger.com (Travis's Blog) — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 17:27:00 -0400

I closed first trade for +172 pips and reentered after the neckline of head and shoulders was broke and retested. Today there was plenty of data and comments that were USD bullish. The Russian Finance minister said the dollar was in “good shape” which started bullish momentum of the dollar. In addition, the number of people working in the eurozone declined by 1.2% which didn’t bode well for the Euro. Furthermore, data released out of the US today was worse than expected which encouraged the market to be risk averse giving the dollar a boost.

The neckline of the Head and Shoulders was violated before noon EST. Price has been able to remain under the neckline for now. If price remains below the neckline I will use the 261.8 Fibonacci extension level for my final target at 1.3589. If not, I will redraw a Fib and wait to see where price retraces to define my target. Stay tuned on twitter for real time trade updates.

EUR/USD: Weekly Technical Outlook

noreply@blogger.com (Travis's Blog) — Sun, 14 Jun 2009 12:50:00 -0400

My last trade didn’t work out -36 pips. I am cautiously bearish. The EU seems to be losing steam to the upside, as evidenced by the Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern on the four hour chart (H4), diminishing volume as price rises, and the confirmed bearish divergence (price making higher high; indicator failing to make higher high) in OSMA (H4). In addition, stochastics on the weekly chart are about to start a bearish cycle. Furthermore, price failed to break through the 50.0 Fibonacci level of the (1.6036 – 1.2321) Fib depicted on weekly chart. If we get a break and retest of the neckline of the H&S pattern around 1.3820 my overall target will be 1.3600 which is the 138.2 Fibonacci extension level of the (1.4337 – 1.3809) Fib depicted on daily. I expect price to find a lot of support around the 1.3800 level so you may want to break this trade up just to be safe.

Alternatively, if price manages to break the 1.4143 level and retests this level as support I will be looking long, with an overall target of 1.4500.

EUR/USD: Long @ 1.4107

noreply@blogger.com (Travis's Blog) — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 19:02:00 -0400

I took a small long @ 1.4110 after I noticed that price found a lot of support right around 38.2 Fibonacci level and 200 day(red) simple moving average (SMA). My target is 20 pips below the 138.3 Fibonacci extension level @ 1.4248. I got a good risk reward on this trade and plenty of technical reasons to enter. Daily stochastics are currently in a bullish cycle and the daily OSMA just printed dark red bar. Nevertheless, I did place a tight stop because there is plenty of resistance for price to break through.

The fundamentals are also supporting this trade at the moment. All of the economic data that came out today supported that the economic contraction may be subsiding. As a result, the risk appetite of the market increased which hurts the value of the dollar.

EUR/USD: Neckline of Head & Shoulders Retested

noreply@blogger.com (Travis's Blog) — Tue, 9 Jun 2009 20:37:00 -0400

I am short @ 1.4070 as I planned last weekend. I placed my stop above the neckline of the Head and Shoulders (H&S) depicted in the one hour charts (H1) that I attached to this post. I attached the H1 chart from the weekend to show what a retest looks like. When a significant technical level like a neckline of a H&S is violated it is usually retested. Well, that it was we got today and if it holds as resistance my target will be 1.3820. If this trade works out I will post to twitter when I move my stop down.

I want to thank everyone that has provided me with feedback. It is greatly appreciated and it has helped me improve my trading and this blog. I hope my commentary has helped.

EUR/USD: Standing Aside +61 pips today

noreply@blogger.com (Travis's Blog) — Mon, 8 Jun 2009 20:43:00 -0400

I am standing aside for now. I will be watching how price behaves as it retests bottom trend line of ascending channel. I am still looking to short but am remaining cautious due to the possible hammer bottom forming on daily. I will feel more comfortable shorting as long as price remains below the 21 exponential moving average (EMA) on daily chart. I am posting my trades in real time on twitter so stay tuned.

EUR/USD: Weekly Technical Outlook

noreply@blogger.com (Travis's Blog) — Sun, 7 Jun 2009 17:00:00 -0400

I closed out my last trade of the week on Friday for +80 pips. I will be looking to short EU early in the week. Price may retrace up to the 1.4050 or the 1.4100 zone before continuing with the bearish correction. I will be paying close attention to how price behaves around the 200 day simple moving average (SMA) on the 1 hour chart (H1). The 200 SMA is also hanging around the 50.0 Fibonacci retracement level. I really like to trade that level because many traders pay attention to that Fibonacci level. Price is approaching a critical level in the 21 day exponential moving average (EMA) on the daily chart, which almost corresponds with the bottom trend line of the ascending channel. Volatility increases around critical levels like this so it may be prudent to stay on the sideline until price demonstrates where it is headed from there. We may get the upside correction from there to the 1.4050 or the 1.4100 level.

Trade Idea: Wait for upside correction to 1.4050 – 1.4100 level Short EU with target of 1.3815

EUR/USD: +26 pips today; Standing aside for now

noreply@blogger.com (Travis's Blog) — Thu, 4 Jun 2009 20:49:00 -0400

I am standing aside for now. I am still looking to short the EU. Notice the Head & Shoulders reversal pattern I have highlighted on 1 hour chart (H1). If and when we get a break of that neckline EU should gain bearish momentum. If EU doesn’t break the neckline and heads north I will be looking to take a small short when price reaches 1.4326 level. I would also like to mention that the ECB stated that “Euro rise is not welcome.” The ECB also “left the door open for further rate cuts.”

EUR/USD: The Power of Fibonacci Retracement/Extensions +78 pips Today

noreply@blogger.com (Travis's Blog) — Wed, 3 Jun 2009 19:33:00 -0400

I wanted to use the latest ABCD move the EU made in the last couple of weeks to explain how I use Fibonacci retracement/extensions to set my profit targets and to demonstrate just how useful Fibonacci levels can be. Take a look at the daily chart. As you can see, after price reached the 1.4050 area on 5/24 (A-B) it retraced to 1.3812 (B-C) which is the 38.2 retracement level. A 38.2 retracement means that if price breaks the 0.0 fib level after the retracement and retests this level your target (C-D) is the 138.2 extension level which is 1.4295. Price did exceed the 138.2 fib level by about 40 pips but that is a pretty big move.

I am standing aside for now. I don’t like to have any positions open before rate announcements unless I have locked in some profit because of the volatility before, during and after the announcement. I will continue to look short as long as the 21 exponential moving average (EMA) holds as resistance on the H4. I am now posting my trades in real time on twitter.

EUR/USD: Short @ 1.4318 last long +120 pips

noreply@blogger.com (Travis's Blog) — Tue, 2 Jun 2009 20:50:00 -0400

I demo traded counter trend trades successfully for 6 months and just recently started taking live counter trend trades. I have been updating my trades in real time on twitter so you can follow them there. Price reached top of ascending channel on daily which also corresponded with the 138.2 Fibonacci extension level. There are bearish divergences in OSMA in Daily and H4 charts and stochastics look set for a bearish cycle. I got plenty of reasons to take this short. Target is 1.4250. I will not be taking any longs any time soon and may look to take another short if price reaches December highs around 1.4460 area. I will keep you posted.

EUR/USD: Weekly Technical Outlook; Buy on Pullback to 1.4050

noreply@blogger.com (Travis's Blog) — Sun, 31 May 2009 17:03:00 -0400

I am going to stand aside for now and wait for a pullback to 1.4050 before going long. I have got many questions asking how I determine overall direction. I use moving averages (21 EMA, 50SMA, 200 SMA) and where there are pointing on "the clock" on the daily chart to determine whether price is in a downtrend, uptrend, or trending. If you look at the daily chart I attached to this post, you will notice that I drew the numbers 1-6 as they would be on a clock. When the 21 EMA(yellow) and 50 SMA(blue) are pointing to the 1:00 - 2:00 area of "the clock" price is in a uptrend. If trend lines were pointing at 3:00 region of "the clock" I would determine that price is in a range. If trend lines were pointing 5:00 - 6:00 area of "the clock" price is in a downtrend. And notice how the 21 EMA is above the 50 SMA, which is above the 200 SMA; this is also an indication that price is in a uptrend. As a result of these indications, and the fact that EU broke through a lot of technical resistance last week, I am bullish EU and have determined that EU is in a uptrend. This means I am looking only to take long positions. I do consider counter trend trades when I see bearish divergences forming on upper time frames and stochastics are overbought/oversold on all time frames, but this is rare.

Weekly Strategy: Buy on dips with overall target at the 138.2 FIB extension level @ 1.4290

EUR/USD: +30 pips last trade

noreply@blogger.com (Travis's Blog) — Fri, 29 May 2009 05:55:00 -0400

I went long at 1.4019 and exited at 1.4050. I am going to stand aside for now and wait for the 1.4050/60 area to be tested as support. Stochastics on H4 and M30 charts are in overbought territory and there are bearish divergences (price making higher highs, OSMA failing to make higher highs) developing on both M30 and H4. If the 1.4050 area holds as support I will take another long position and my target will be 1.4290 which is the 138.2 FIB extension level.

EUR/USD: Why wait for the retest?

noreply@blogger.com (Travis's Blog) — Thu, 28 May 2009 22:31:00 -0400

The EU broke the 1.3980 level finally after several attempts throughout the day. Does this mean you jump in so you don't MISS THE MOVE? Absolutely not! 70% of breakouts fail so it is critical to wait for a level that is broken to hold as support. Notice the M30 chart where price breaks that level and gains strong momentum as this level is violated. The reason this happens is because some people are looking to buy there but many short sellers have their stops just above that level. Waiting for the retest is giving you a level of insurance and helps improve you risk reward ratio.

EUR/USD: last trade -2 pips: Will EU break 1.4000?

noreply@blogger.com (Travis's Blog) — Thu, 28 May 2009 20:29:00 -0400

The EU tried to break the 200 SMA M30 several times without success. This is why waiting for the retest is critical. If you would have jumped in on those breaks without waiting on the retest you would have felt a lot of pain several times. I am waiting for the 1.3980 level to be broken and retested before going long. If that 0.0 Fib level is broke and RETESTED my initial target will be 1.4055 which is a few pips below the 161.8% retracement level. I will be looking to go short if we get a break and retest of the 1.3880 area.

EUR/USD: Long @ 1.3964

noreply@blogger.com (Travis's Blog) — Thu, 28 May 2009 11:09:00 -0400

EUR/USD: EU gets a boost from better than expected economic data

noreply@blogger.com (Travis's Blog) — Thu, 28 May 2009 10:13:00 -0400

The EU got a boost after German unemployment change data came out better than expected. In addition, core durable good orders and unemployment claims data out of the U.S. came out better than expected. The EU rally was halted when U.S. new home sales data disappointed the market. I am waiting to see if the 21 EMA H4 (purple dashed line on M30 chart) holds as support. If it does i will maintain my bullish bias and will look to go long.

EUR/USD: Closed 1.3925 +35 pips

noreply@blogger.com (Travis's Blog) — Thu, 28 May 2009 10:08:00 -0400

I closed this trade after housing data came out. I am going to stand aside for now. I just recently increased my position sizes so I am adjusting to that. I add to my position sizes as my account balance allots for it.

EUR/USD: Long @ 1.3890

noreply@blogger.com (Travis's Blog) — Thu, 28 May 2009 09:42:00 -0400

I waited for the retest this time. I will move my stop up below the 200 SMA (red) once it is broken. I moved my stop to break even shortly after the 21 EMA (yellow) was broken and retested.

EUR/USD: WAIT FOR RETEST!!!!!!!

noreply@blogger.com (Travis's Blog) — Wed, 27 May 2009 20:51:00 -0400

The market was tough today. My trade today was a prime example of why it is critical to wait for the retest. I got impulsive and was enticed by the spike around 8:00 AM this morning that blew through the 21 EMA on the H4. That is a significant level that hasn't been broken since the 18th. Shortly after taking the trade price bounced right off daily S1 and went right up and broke back through the 21 EMA and daily PP and took me out quickly. If I would have waited for the retest I would have still went short but not until the 21 EMA was broken and retested after this reversal. I break this rule much less often now, but it is a rule that I should follow 100% of the time. I will be looking to short EU as long as price remains below 21 EMA H4. Right now price is meeting resistance at the weekly PP (1.3822). Stochastics on H4 and M30 are in oversold territory right now so EU may be due for a pullback before declining further.

EUR/USD: Stopped -40 pips

noreply@blogger.com (Travis's Blog) — Wed, 27 May 2009 09:23:00 -0400

EUR/USD: Short EU @ 1.3927

noreply@blogger.com (Travis's Blog) — Wed, 27 May 2009 08:54:00 -0400

I started feeling some pain on this trade almost immediately after taking it. If I get stopped out, I will examine what I did wrong later. Headed to the office.