Economic Calenders

When it comes to economic calendars you will find an assortment of them on-line. There are only two online calendars that I use on daily basis. They are the Forex Calendar @ Forex Factory and Bloomberg Calendar the screenshots of these calendars shown below:

Out of these two calendars my favourite would have to be the Forex Calendar it has more features and has a much easier workflow then Bloomberg. 

Forex Calendar Features

The first thing you will want to do with both these calendars is adjust your time zone. After I have done this I like to get out my trading notebook and I enter  the announcements that will be relevant to me on that given day. To get more detail about a specific announcement simply click on the detail button. The detail window gives you the following information:

• Source
• Measures
• Usual Effect
• Frequency
• Next Release
• FF Notes
• Why Traders care
• Derived via
• Acro Expand
• History
• Related items

The screenshot below shows the Forex Calendar detail feature in action:

The other unique feature the Forex calendar has is the ability to chart historical release data. Like the detail feature you simply click on the chart icon and an interactive chart will be generated within the same window.  The image below shows the chart feature in action:

Software Tools

I use the free tool FF Calendar to news software as it provides an easy way for me to build a database of future and historic news events on my local computer. This is very handy for some system design work I do. The screenshot below shows my news events history database:

Once my database is populated I can then run a script that overlays each of the economic events on the appropriate chart. This allows for me to graphically view the impact if any on the underlying markets. The screenshot below shows the auto generated chart content on the EUR/USD 1 minute spot chart:

In my next post I will talk about the classic reference book that I often refer to surrounding news releases The Secrets of Economic Indicators: Hidden Clues to Future Economic Trends and Investment Opportunities.

eSignal OnDemand Software

After signing up at eSignal OnDemand you will then be able to download and install the software. After installation the first screen most of you will see is this:

Under Windows 7 it is simply a matter of allowing the eSignal data manger access through the firewall and you will be downloading historical data in no time. I really like the integrated browser within eSignal and the extensive getting started guide. The screenshot below shows the browser running in eSignal:

eSignals extensive documentation makes learning eSignal a less daunting process. I strongly recommend anyone starting out in eSignal to not skip this documentation.

eSignal onDemand Symbol Search

One of the first things you will want to do is find a stock, index, future or option contracts symbol. This is easily achieved using eSignal OnDemand symbol search window. The symbol search tool is very powerful and you will often need to narrow your search criteria. Once again eSignal OnDemand makes this an easy process through the use of drop down lists.  The search feature allows you to quickly add the symbol to the quote board, open up a chart or perform other analysis tasks with the click of a button. Below are some screenshots of eSignal OnDemand symbol search in action.

eSignal OnDemand Quote Window

The quote window allows you to gain a quick snapshot of how a financial instrument is performing. From the quote window you can quickly open charts and analysis tools by right clicking the instrument. You can also take a snapshot of the current quote window and save it as an image file locally or on a ftp server. The image below shows a brief snapshot of my current eSignal OnDemand quote window:

eSignal OnDemand Quote Board

The Quote Board is very similar to the quote window however it provides a little more data on individual financial instruments. You can very quickly visually track how a stock or financial instrument is travelling at a given point in time. The Quote Board is colour coded and shows the open, high, low, close and percent change of a given instrument. An example of my Quote Board is shown below:

eSignal OnDemand Advanced Chart

This is the area that eSignal OnDemand really advances in their charting. The charting features are so extensive it would take two maybe three post just to do them justice. Instead I will go over a quick run down of the features.

Chart Types

1. Bar Chart
2. Candle Stick Chart
3. Line Chart
4. Area Chart
5. PNF Chart
6. PB Chart
7. Renko Chart
8. Kagi Chart

Some of these Chart types shown below (Click to Enlarge):

Chart Drawing tools and Indicators

eSignal OnDemand has an extensive array of drawing tools and built-in chart studies, rather then go through them all the screenshots below show some of the available options.

eSignal OnDemand Page Layout

Using the page layout feature it is very easy to create a specific screen setup for a given workflow and then switch between layouts quickly. This allows for increased productivity and allows you to quickly change perspectives. The layout below is a simple one I created for quickly looking at stocks.

Other Excellent features include:

• The ability to export data to csv or html format.
• The ability to replay bars of a given security.
• The ability to back test trading strategies. (I will cover this in a future post as the features are so extensive).
• Price filtering of bars.
• Portfolio tools.
• Extensive keyboard customisation settings.

Bottom Line

I am very impressed with the range of features and data coverage at such a low monthly cost. I have found the software to be stable and after the initial learning curve fairly easy to use. The charting features and data coverage make this a truly fantastic package for a retail trader who only makes a few trades in a week or month. It is also a good starting point for someone who wishes to get into trading but might be at work during market hours. The bar replay feature allows for you to get a feel for some market dynamics.

In an upcoming post I will detail what eSignal OnDemand has to offer for the quant or algorithmic trader. Overall eSignal OnDemand allows you to start analysing the market at a low cost and when you are ready to move to a real time service you will be able to transfer skills learned. eSignal will also integrate with most brokers so you can make trades directly from eSignal.

A Final Note

eSignal OnDemand will not offer to much to the high frequency trader or day trader. For these practises real time data is essential. eSignal OnDemand does not have free market scanners and some advanced features are sold as an add on service.

The Install Process

As with any operating system install, I backup all my data and get a list of programs and application that will need to be installed. I always choose to do a clean install and reformat all my hard drives as I find this can increase performance. The install process is pretty much a one click affair just grab a cup of coffee and the install for most people will be done in about 30 min. below are a few grainy shots (taken with my phone cam) of some installer screens:

After a few restarts you will be presented with a login screen.

Getting Started in Windows 7

The first thing you will notice in Windows 7 is the graphics text appears sharper windows are vibrant and overall there is a brighter feel to the GUI.  One of the big changes in Windows 7 is the taskbar. If you are familiar with any Windows operating system from Windows XP onwards the switch to Windows 7 will not cause to many headaches.

Windows 7 Taskbar and Start Menu

The taskbar has increased functionality allowing you to quickly launch programs from it, switch between applications and individual application windows with ease. Taskbar shown below:

The application tray area as also had an overhaul allowing for increased customization. It is now possible to hide notification and icons from the tray area. One of the standout features of the new taskbar is the ability to preview open tabs and application windows by simply mousing over the application as shown in the image below:

Another very useful feature is the quick show desktop function located at the end of the taskbar. This allows you to quickly see all of your desktop widgets without leaving the application you are currently in. The start menu is very similar to Windows Vista with a few minor tweaks and no ability to restore the classic start menu .The image below shows the standard Windows 7 Start menu.

Appearance and Themes

Windows 7 allows for easy customization of desktop backgrounds sounds and window colours through the use of themes. You can create a customised theme yourself or download one from the net. The screenshot below shows how straightforward appearance customisation is in Windows 7:

You will also notice Calculator, Word pad and paint have gotten a makeover in this windows 7 release. Screenshots shown below:

Calculator and Paint

Windows media player has also been overhauled and supports many more file formats out of the box, however most people use VLC anyway. To read more about the new features in Windows Media player head over to Gizmodo.

The bottom line

This is by no means a complete review as there are just to many features and new components to discuss. Really Windows 7 is everything Windows Vista should have been. I have noticed increased stability, simplified networking settings and my overall workflow is faster. My PostgreSQL databases are running much quicker. The User Access Controls are much less permissive and as far as compatibility goes I have not had an issue. If you are still in the dark ages and have put off upgrading Windows XP now is definitely the time to do it.

Moving from Vista to Windows 7

This is a much harder proposition to quantify.Vista is now a mature offering, most issues have been ironed out with the last service pack release. Coming from Windows Vista Business edition myself I have found Windows 7 to be quicker, easier to use and I have not had an issue with my wireless networking like I did in Vista. For me the choice was simple to go with Windows 7 as I like to run the latest software. 

If you were disappointed with Vista or are looking to upgrade from Windows XP then Windows 7 might just be the operating system for you. Or if you are like me and like running the latest version of any software look out for this October 22 release. In the coming weeks I will post more about my Windows 7  experiences.

23457

There are three drawing rounds and four betting rounds. The game flow shown below:

Five cards dealt to each player
First Betting round -Starting with player to left of big blind player will choose to bet, check or raise if pot is not already capped.
Draw One – Player will choose to keep or discard any number of cards if he likes his hand he will change none and Stand Pat.

Second Betting round -Starting with player to left of big blind player will choose to bet, check or raise if pot is not already capped.
Draw Two – Player will then choose to keep or discard any number of cards if he likes his hand he will change none and Stand Pat.

Third Betting round -Starting with player to left of big blind player will choose to bet, check or raise if pot is not already capped.
Final Draw – Player will choose to keep or discard any number of cards if he likes his hand he will change zero and Stand Pat.

Final Betting round -Starting with player to left of big blind player will choose to bet, check or raise if pot is not already capped.
Showdown- Provided bets are called a showdown will occur and the lowest hand wins.

I know all this seems a bit complex but once you sit down at the table it will all make sense. Below is my equity graph from my last 10,000 hands, nothing impressive but I am still a student of the game.

Learning 2-7 Triple Draw

If you want to learn more about triple draw there are some great resources online and a chapter in the Super System two which should help you hit the ground running.

1. Triple the Gold Video Series on Deuces Cracked (Great training site subscription required).
2. Daniel Negreanu’s chapter on Triple draw from the Super System II. (Read online free).
3. Lowball guru’s excellent collection of articles on lowball.
4. Smack software- Free software that will overlay mucked cards on screen to save you going through Hand History.
5. Rubbish cards Troutulator -  Free software for equity calculations

“I never looked at the consequences of missing a big shot… when you think about the consequences you always think of a negative result.”

Michael Jordan

“I’ve missed more than 9000 shots in my career. I’ve lost almost 300 games. 26 times, I’ve been trusted to take the game winning shot and missed. I’ve failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed.”

Michael Jordan

“Every adversity, every failure, every heartache carries with it the seed on an equal or greater benefit.”

Napoleon Hill

“Don’t be afraid of missing opportunities. Behind every failure is an opportunity somebody wishes they had missed.”

Lily Tomlin

What is The Risk of Ruin?

In it’s simplest form the risk of ruin involves losing so much of your trading capital that you can not recover or trade your way out of a draw down. To make this more concrete I used a few different risk levels to see how many consecutive losing trades one would have to make at each level before losing all there trading capital.

Note: Approximate numbers based on a $15,000 account size, assume ruin occurs when account balance less then $500.

A graphical view of the risk of ruin is shown below:

Money Management – Avoiding the Risk of Ruin 

I know you have heard it all before that the key to successful trading is money management. As you can clearly see from the above you could have the best trading instincts or system in the world, but without money management you could be out of the game in ten trades. An excellent resource on money management can be found  at Turtle Trader.

Don’t shoot the speculator.

A tale of two bailouts.

Forecasters Overpredict GDP and Employment.

The social life of financial bubbles.

Catching false breakouts.

Largest Sovereign Wealth Funds.

Company Seeks Return of Seized Poker Winnings.

15 rites of passage from around the world.

Why creating jobs is so hard.

Cats do control humans.

Would you trust a scientist.

Pictures of the year.

Possible Failures

Note: We will ignore server or broker side failures.

Power failure

Loss of power supply would render computer, router and some telecommunication system unusable.

Hardware Failure

• Multiple components could fail leaving computer unusable.
• Router or modem could fail.

Telecommunication Failure

• Phone line fail
• Internet Service provider fail

This is offcourse a very simplified list of possible failures, however it encompasses the most probable failures you will encounter.

The Solution

Laptop + Wireless Internet Plan

The solution is very simple you need to ensure you have a backup computer that has an independent power supply and a wireless Internet connection with a second Internet service provider and communication line.

Well that is pretty obvious I here you saying. The reason I am writing this post is it is relatively cheap and easy to include this redundancy in your general trading strategy, however few do.

How much does this cost ?

For approximately AU$1000 you can purchase a laptop and wireless USB Internet plan. This is in Australia I am sure options would be available to my overseas readers. 

The Laptop

A cheap Dell Inspiron 15 should be sufficient for our needs features include:

• 2.16 Ghz Celeron processor (not fast but sufficient)
• 2 gig RAM
• 160 GB hard drive
• Windows Vista Home Basic

In Australia 3 offers very affordable prepaid wireless broadband I am sure similar offers are available overseas. 

Keeping  your Backup Computer in Sync

The easiest way to keep both computers synchronised is with the use of SyncToy.  This tool allows you to mirror your working environment on two computers. This can be achieved either over a network or by using an external hard drive.

Download and install SyncToy on both computers.

Setup the folders you wish to synchronise, making sure on the second computer you reverse the right and left folders.

Choose the settings for the  folder pair.

After running SyncToy on both computers you should see a screen similar to the one above.

You may have to play with SyncToy and the folders you choose to synchronise for optimal results.

1. The claim fact or statement is verifiable.
2. Multiple non related entities verify the claim or fact.
3. There is a published or peer reviewed work relating to the claim or fact.
4. The source is trust worthy.
5. The source is not trying to sell me something.

You can be anyone you want online

On the internet you can claim to be anything you want. You can use a false name change sexes, get an instant degree or Ph.D, be a master trader, find a cure for cancer, lose 1000 pounds from eating grape fruit and the list goes on. The one crucial thing all rip off scammer sites have in common is a great story. It doesn’t matter if this story is completely false as long as it sells. The stories told usually involve a great achievement and frame the intelligence of the promoter who created the product course or E-book. They will usually use images to evoke an emotional response. These images will include the promoter next to an expensive car, In a large house and next to or in a boat.

Freedom???

Wealth???

Status???

Are you being sold a Lemon? Site layout can be an early warning sign

There are seven components that most internet marketers use to sell there wares online, these are highlighted below. My guard is instantly raised when I come across a page with these features. I should note not all pages with these characteristics are scams.

Squeeze Page

This is the first part of the sales process and is a very important part. You will arrive at a page offering you a free report, ebook or service for merely providing your email address. This allows the promoter to contact you in future about new offers.

Loooooooong Sales Page

The page you visit next will be the sales page. This page will generally be extremely long and scrolling to the bottom will take some time. Rather then having multiple pages everything is shown on the one page.

Sales copy

Everything written on this page is designed to convince you to buy the product. First the sales copy will clearly define the problem and will then take you on a textual journey showing you the ONLY way to solve the problem will be to purchase the product.

Important take action key words will be highlighted through colour and font size. Don’t suffer any longer XYZ product is here to help. But wait there is more……

Buy NOW

A Story that will sell

Sometimes the story will come first but usually you will find the story in the middle of the sales copy or to the right hand side. The stories usually have a similar theme and are designed to frame the promoters intelligence or take us on a journey from rags to riches. Sometimes they involve a Dr., Harvard graduate or genius discovering the meaning of life and sharing it with the world (for a small fee off course ). Other times a stay at home mum will discover she can accurately predict the stock prices of companies by the time it takes the washing to dry on the line.

Positive testimonials

Have you ever seen a negative testimonial on a sales page? No, neither have I. This must mean that this is either the best product in the world or the testimonials are not an accurate representation of the customers experience. These days most testimonials are fake anyway, there are companies which only exist to provide marketers with fake testimonials.

Alleged limited time offer (perceived scarcity)

This is one of my favourite techniques marketers use, the act now or miss out. There are different variations depending on the product or service being sold. The include:

1. Buy Today and receive an extra gift.
2. Limited copies left.
3. X places left.
4. The signup process will close at X.

This creates the illusion of scarcity and as we don’t want to miss out we will purchase it right now.

Badges of Credibility

Most sites use the badge technique and offer a money back guarantee or a satisfaction guarantee. You notice an image similar to the one below in the copy, however the stipulations of the guarantee will be in fine print and you may find it hard to get your money back.

E-Book Scamming

Maybe I am just old fashioned but before I buy a book I like to open it up see what it contains,skim through and see if it something that I would like to purchase. With eBooks you don’t know what you are going to get until you purchase it. Some eBooks are of high quality while others aren’t worth the space they take up on your hard drive. Anyone can write an eBook and generally the quality of information provided is low. The business model eBook writers use is shown below:

1. Identify a niche with strong demand that is not saturated with eBooks.
2. Write out a general outline for the book.
3. Buy a domain name and Hosting. Average cost US$150
4. Hire a writer from India, Philippines or another country that will write the book. Average cost US$200.
5. Use a pre-packaged squeeze/sales page.
6. Use an auto-responder to soft sell email addresses captured.
7. Write sales page.
8. Open an affiliate program so other people can sell your book.
9. Sell 150 eBooks @US$29.95 each and make a quick US$4142.5 profit.

Trade System Scamming

This is another scam that is prevalent and right now usually involves the Forex market and MetaTrader. This scam is particularly easy to spot.  These trading systems are never tested on real money accounts as the creator now they are heavily curve fitted and are designed to show good performance for a specific historical period. You will almost always see in fine print down the bottom this CFTC risk disclosure:

“HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE:
RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL, OR IS LIKELY TO, ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN TRADERS OPINIONS AND FOLLOWING SPECIFIC TRADES THAT AN INDIVIDUAL MAKES. THERE ARE ALSO DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS ‘PAPER TRADING’ AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM, IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES, ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS, IN GENERAL, OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.”

Ask yourself this: If you create a trading system that makes you large profits would you sell it? or would you keep it to yourself?.

Education provision Scamming

Trading is hard and for the most part there is no course you can sit that will guarantee you will be a successful trader. I have heard from countless people who have paid upwards of $10,000 for training only to be left with remedial knowledge they could have gained from a good book.  My advice to anyone considering trading is to start be reading a few classic books:

1. A Random Walk Down Wall Street.
2. The Black Swan.
3. Investment Analysis & Portfolio Management.
4. Money, Banking and Financial Markets.
5. Using Econometrics a Practical Guide.

These five books give you the fundamental knowledge required to understand the market.

Links

• Australian Securities and Investment Commission Scam Watch.
• National Futures Association
• U.S Securities Exchange Commission.
• Better Business Bureau.
• Scam Watch.
• Snopes.

The Links

Buisness week article learning and profiting from online friends.

Google squares an interesting new offering from Google.

Yaro from Entrepreneurs Journey looks at what motivates a purchase.

Life hacker comments on The BRW Rich 200 On How Not To Lose Your Money.

Problogger gives us 13 Tips for Marketing Your Business With Your Blog.

The EMH a dead parrot?

Monty Python’s Dead Parrot Sketch

Why Motivation doesn’t matter.

Confessions of a recovering spendaholic.

Your credit score V the United States.

Would you work without pay?

No wonder California is broke.

1984 need I say more?

World resources map.

IRS Taxing your work mobile.

The 50 best C64 Games.

Your dad does what?

Not Cute.

Enjoy your weekend.

Internet Tools

• Firefox (Free) – Open source web browser. Download Firefox.
• FlashGet (Free) – Free Download accelerator. Download FlashGet.
• COMODO Firewall (Free) – Simple easy to use free firewall. Download COMODO Firewall.
• Windows Live Writer (Free) – A excellent free tool to compose blog posts. Download Live Writer.

Trading Tools

• Rapid Miner (Free) – Free data mining toolkit. Download Rapid Miner.
• QuantLib (Free) – A free finance programming library. Download QuantLib.
• Octave (Free) – A free MATLAB implementation. Download Octave.
• MetaTrader (Free) – A free FOREX application. Download Metatrader.
• Microsoft Visual Studio 2008 Profesional (Commercial) – Programming suite. Visit Site.
• Trader XL Pro (Commercial) – An all in one trading solution. Download Trial.
• Microsft Excel 2007 (Commercial) – A must have for any trader. Visit Site.

System Tools

• NotePad++ (Free) – A free feature packed replacement for notepad. Download Notepad++.
• AVG antivirus (Free/Commercial) – Easy to use virus scanning solution. Visit Site.
• PDF Creator (Free) – Easily create PDF files from any application. Download PDF Creator.
• 7-zip (Free) – Open any compressed file you should come across. Download 7-Zip.
• Sync Toy (Free) – Backup or sync your files to a storage device. Download Sync Toy.
• CCleaner (Free) – Clean and optimize your system. Download CCleaner.
• VirtualBox (Free) – Create a sandbox for testing apps on production system. Download VirtualBox.
• KeePass (Free) – A simple tool for managing login credentials. Download KeePass.

Image and Video Tools

• Paint.Net (Free) – A free Image editing application. Download Paint.Net.
• IrfanView (Free) – Open any image file. Download IrfanView.
• VLC (Free) – Play any format video file. Download VLC.

Poker Tools

• PokerStove (Free) – A free poker equity calculator. Download PokerStove.
• PokerHands (Still in Beta Testing Free) – Good draw poker tracking software. Download PokerHands.
• PokerProLabs Tools (Commercial) – A suite of useful tools. Visit site.
• Hold’em Manager (Commercial) Tracking software for hold’em. Visit site.