Trading Forum and Blogs http://www.traderslog.com/forum/ Trading and Investing Forum Stocks Futures Forex en Fri, 25 May 2012 09:51:15 GMT vBulletin 60 http://www.traderslog.com/forum/images/misc/rss.jpg Trading Forum and Blogs http://www.traderslog.com/forum/ <![CDATA[June '12 10 Year T-Notes: Neutral Digestion]]> http://www.traderslog.com/forum/showthread.php?t=20660&goto=newpost Fri, 25 May 2012 07:33:36 GMT - The MKT is in a sideways digestive position with a slight positive bias.

- On the SELL side avoid DP BREAKOUT strategies but rather FADE a positive reaction against the DIR after a negative breakdown signal. UP and UT1 REVERSAL strategies are recommended over FADE strategies as "sloppy" trading conditions are expected. Any UP FADE trades should get confirmation first.

- On the BUY side UP BREAKOUT strategies are valid but should expect a laborious trade. Work any position, selling into emotional surges and re-entering on any sharp pullbacks. Expect a choppy trade and be aggressive on minimizing profit give-back. DP and DT1 FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended.
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]]> Futures and Commodities Trading JS Services http://www.traderslog.com/forum/showthread.php?t=20660 Daily Forecast: May 25 http://www.traderslog.com/forum/showthread.php?t=20659&goto=newpost Fri, 25 May 2012 07:04:39 GMT *EURUSD Forecast* The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.2618 but whipsawed to the downside and closed at 1.2534, keep the bearish bias remains strong. We have seen strong bearish pressures in the last four weeks broke some important supports and now price is testing another... EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.2618 but whipsawed to the downside and closed at 1.2534, keep the bearish bias remains strong. We have seen strong bearish pressures in the last four weeks broke some important supports and now price is testing another important support around 1.2500/30. A clear break and daily close below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.2400 region or lower. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.2620/41. A clear break above that area could interrupt the current strong bearish trend. CCI and MACD in oversold area but we know that in a strong trending market indicators can be in extreme oversold/bought condition in a long time. I remain bearish and still prefer to sell on rallies.



GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.5725 but whipsawed to the downside and closed at 1.5656. There are no changes in my technical outlook. The bias remains bearish in nearest term 1.5600 – 1.5550/15 support area. Immediate resistance remains around 1.5735. A clear break above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.5800 but as long as stays below 1.5850 I still prefer to sell on rallies.



USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY failed to continue its bearish momentum yesterday, unable to stay consistently below 79.35/52 support area and hit 79.81 earlier today. The bias is neutral in nearest term with a little upside bias especially if price able to make a clear break and daily close above 80.00 testing 81.00 – 81.80 resistance area. On the downside, nearest key support remain around 78.98. A clear break and daily close below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 78.27 even retesting the record low at 75.56. Price has been moving sideways without clear momentum and direction in the last two weeks. Technically, the record low at 75.56 is a strong candidate for a bottom so I still prefer a bullish reversal scenario. However, on fundamental point of view, the risk aversion sentiment seems to drive the market now, pushing so-called safe haven currencies like Yen and US Dollar stronger.



USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bullish momentum yesterday and slipped above 0.9600 earlier today. There are no changes in my technical outlook. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 0.9700 – 0.9800. On the downside, only a clear break and daily close back below 0.9500 could interrupt the current strong bullish outlook but as long as stays above 0.9320 I still prefer to buy on dips.



Have a great day! ]]> Forex Trading FxInstructor http://www.traderslog.com/forum/showthread.php?t=20659 EURUSD: Extends Downside Momentum (Technical Alert) http://www.traderslog.com/forum/showthread.php?t=20658&goto=newpost Thu, 24 May 2012 20:23:06 GMT EURUSD: With EUR taking out its key support at the 1.2620 level and weakening, the risk is for it to extend that weaken in the days ahead. This will open the door for a run at the 1.2479 level, July 04’2010 low with a cut through there allowing for further declines towards the 1.2300 level, its... EURUSD: With EUR taking out its key support at the 1.2620 level and weakening, the risk is for it to extend that weaken in the days ahead. This will open the door for a run at the 1.2479 level, July 04’2010 low with a cut through there allowing for further declines towards the 1.2300 level, its psycho level and then its distant support located at the 1.2149 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Alternatively, the pair will have to break and hold above the 1.2824 level to annul its present downside and bring further upside gain towards the 1.3000 level. Father out, resistance resides at its April 14’2012 high at 1.3146. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside medium term.
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]]> Forex Trading Mohammed Isah http://www.traderslog.com/forum/showthread.php?t=20658 Junior Gold Miners ETF at Resistance http://www.traderslog.com/forum/showthread.php?t=20657&goto=newpost Thu, 24 May 2012 17:42:01 GMT The Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) has popped above key resistance at 19.50/55 to hit an intraday high at 19.80. However, so far it has not been able to sustain the strength as we see the price structure has returned to test the upside breakout plateau. Inability to hold in and around 19.50... The Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) has popped above key resistance at 19.50/55 to hit an intraday high at 19.80. However, so far it has not been able to sustain the strength as we see the price structure has returned to test the upside breakout plateau.

Inability to hold in and around 19.50 likely will trigger a press into the 19.00 next support area prior to my expectation of a pivot reversal that initiates a new up-leg.
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]]> Stock Market Trading Mike Paulenoff http://www.traderslog.com/forum/showthread.php?t=20657 EURGBP: Bearish Medium Term, Eyes The 0.7949 Level. http://www.traderslog.com/forum/showthread.php?t=20656&goto=newpost Thu, 24 May 2012 14:24:54 GMT EURGBP- We continue to hold our downside bias on EURGBP as we look for it to decline further towards the 0.7949 level. A breach of here will turn focus to the 0.7840 level. A decisive clearance of this level will open the door for a run at the 0.7750 level with a cut through here paving the way for... EURGBP- We continue to hold our downside bias on EURGBP as we look for it to decline further towards the 0.7949 level. A breach of here will turn focus to the 0.7840 level. A decisive clearance of this level will open the door for a run at the 0.7750 level with a cut through here paving the way for a move lower towards its Oct 2008 low at 0.7691. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Alternatively, the cross will have to break and hold above the 0.8101 level and the 0.8197 level to resume its recovery. This will pave the way for push higher towards the 0.8218 level and then the 0.8275 level followed by the 0.8423 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.8504 level, its Feb 2012 high. All in all, the cross continues to hold on to its medium term bias despite its recovery attempts.
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]]> Forex Trading Mohammed Isah http://www.traderslog.com/forum/showthread.php?t=20656 Daily Forecast: May 24 http://www.traderslog.com/forum/showthread.php?t=20655&goto=newpost Thu, 24 May 2012 05:04:20 GMT *EURUSD Forecast* The EURUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.2544 and closed at 1.2560. There are no changes in my technical outlook. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 1.2500 area. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.2641. A clear break above that area... EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.2544 and closed at 1.2560. There are no changes in my technical outlook. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 1.2500 area. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.2641. A clear break above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term but any upside correction now is normal and overall I remain bearish as a part of the bearish scenario after fell below the descending triangle and 1.3000 support area.



GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.5674 and closed at 1.5678. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 1.5650. A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.5600 – 1.5550 area as a part of the bearish scenario after broke below the trend line support and movement below daily EMA 200. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.5735. A clear break above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term but as long as stays below 1.5850 I still prefer to sell on rallies.



USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY failed to continue its bullish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 79.20 and closed at 79.44. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 78.98. Immediate resistance is seen around 79.70. A clear break above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 80.00 region. Medium and nearest term direction is unclear after bounced from the record low. I prefer a bullish reversal scenario but a clear break and daily close below 78.98 could trigger further bearish pressure testing 78.27 even retesting the record low at 75.56. On the upside, we still need a consistent movement above 80.00 to have further bullish momentum.



USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 0.9571 and closed at 0.9560. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 0.9600. A clear break and daily close above that area could trigger further bullish scenario testing 0.9700 – 0.9800 area. Immediate support is seen around 0.9500. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 0.9462 but overall I remain bullish and still prefer to buy on dips.



Have a great day! ]]> Forex Trading FxInstructor http://www.traderslog.com/forum/showthread.php?t=20655 EURUSD: Bearish, Threatens Further Downside Momentum. http://www.traderslog.com/forum/showthread.php?t=20654&goto=newpost Wed, 23 May 2012 13:56:41 GMT EURUSD: Having reversed its corrective recovery, the pair is on the verge of resuming its broader weakness. This will open the door for a run at the 1.2620 level, its Jan 2012 low. Further down, support stands at the 1.2587 level followed by the 1.2479 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing... EURUSD: Having reversed its corrective recovery, the pair is on the verge of resuming its broader weakness. This will open the door for a run at the 1.2620 level, its Jan 2012 low. Further down, support stands at the 1.2587 level followed by the 1.2479 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Alternatively, the pair will have to break and hold above the 1.2824 level to annul its present downside and bring further upside gain towards the 1.3000 level. Father out, resistance resides at its April 14’2012 high at 1.3146. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside medium term. ]]> Forex Trading Mohammed Isah http://www.traderslog.com/forum/showthread.php?t=20654 <![CDATA[June '12 10 Year T-Notes: Neutral Digestion]]> http://www.traderslog.com/forum/showthread.php?t=20653&goto=newpost Wed, 23 May 2012 08:47:41 GMT - The MKT has a slight negative bias in a difficult "choppy" trade. On the SELL side DP BREAKOUT strategies are valid but should expect a laborious trade. UP and UT1 FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended but profit should be taken at initial targets. The probability is to the downside today but is not a day to press it.

- On the BUY side avoid UP BREAKOUT strategies but rather FADE a negative reaction after a positive breakout signal at the DIR. DP REVERSAL strategies are recommended over FADE strategies as "sloppy" trading conditions are expected. Any DP FADE trades should get confirmation before executing. Position management adjustments should be anticipated for all longs as sideways trading conditions can quickly erase profits.
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]]> Futures and Commodities Trading JS Services http://www.traderslog.com/forum/showthread.php?t=20653 Daily Forecast: May 23 http://www.traderslog.com/forum/showthread.php?t=20652&goto=newpost Wed, 23 May 2012 05:48:27 GMT *EURUSD Forecast* The EURUSD had a bearish momentum yesterday after broke below the rising wedge formation as you can see on my hourly chart below, bottomed at 1.2650 and hit 1.2644 earlier today. This fact could end the bullish correction especially if price able to make a clear break below... EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD had a bearish momentum yesterday after broke below the rising wedge formation as you can see on my hourly chart below, bottomed at 1.2650 and hit 1.2644 earlier today. This fact could end the bullish correction especially if price able to make a clear break below 1.2641/25 support area testing 1.2550 - 1.2500 region. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.2750 (former support). A clear break back above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term but overall I remain bearish and still prefer to sell on rallies. On longer time frame perspective, the strong bearish outlook can only be stopped by a movement at least above 1.2875 – 1.3000.



GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD had a bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.5741 and closed at 1.5755. The bias is bearish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break below 1.5731 testing 1.5650. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.5800. A clear break above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term but as long as stays below 1.6000 I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase with sell on rallies strategy.



USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday, slipped above 80.00 but fell quickly and hit 79.50 earlier today. Nearest term outlook is neutral with a little bit upside bias and we still need consistent move above 80.00 to give the bullish reversal scenario another chance. On the downside, another clear break back below 79.35 could trigger further bearish pressure testing 78.98 and give the bearish scenario another chance challenging the record low. On the upside, a clear break and daily close above 80.00 could trigger further bullish pressure testing 81.00 – 81.80 resistance area.



USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF regained its bullish momentum yesterday and now seems ready to retest 0.9500 – 0.9600 resistance area. The bias is bullish in nearest term. Immediate support is seen around 0.9435. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term but as long as stays above 0.9320 I still prefer to buy on dips.



Have a great day! ]]> Forex Trading FxInstructor http://www.traderslog.com/forum/showthread.php?t=20652 AUDUSD: Reverses Gain, Set To Recapture The 0.9663 Level. http://www.traderslog.com/forum/showthread.php?t=20651&goto=newpost Tue, 22 May 2012 23:11:46 GMT AUDUSD: The pair has reversed its one-day recovery and now looks to resume its broader medium term downtrend. This development now leaves AUDUSD targeting further declines towards the 0.9750 level where a violation will call for more weakness towards the 0.9663 level, its Nov 2011 low. A cut... AUDUSD: The pair has reversed its one-day recovery and now looks to resume its broader medium term downtrend. This development now leaves AUDUSD targeting further declines towards the 0.9750 level where a violation will call for more weakness towards the 0.9663 level, its Nov 2011 low. A cut through here will extend weakness towards the 0.9485 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Alternatively, the pair will have to break and hold above the 0.9934 level to annul its present declines and bring further upside gains towards the 1.0000 level, its psycho level. A turn above there will turn focus to the 1.0143 levels and then the 1.0216 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside in the medium term on further declines.
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]]> Forex Trading Mohammed Isah http://www.traderslog.com/forum/showthread.php?t=20651 Eye on Yen http://www.traderslog.com/forum/showthread.php?t=20650&goto=newpost Tue, 22 May 2012 17:47:39 GMT Negative macro fundamentals once again have bit the entrenched holders of long Yen (short USD/YEN) in the rear end. My near, intermediate, and longer term chart work indicate that going forward, the derriere's of Yen bulls will continue to experience pain. If the ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS) pulls back a bit in the next day or so, I will attempt to add to our long model portfolio position.
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]]> Stock Market Trading Mike Paulenoff http://www.traderslog.com/forum/showthread.php?t=20650 EURGBP: Holds On To Recovery Tone. http://www.traderslog.com/forum/showthread.php?t=20649&goto=newpost Tue, 22 May 2012 15:07:29 GMT EURGBP- With the cross continuing to hold on to its upside recovery, there is risk of further correction higher. However, the 0.8197 level and the 0.8218 level will have to give way to suggest a bottom is in place for a run further upside towards the 0.8275 level and then the 0.8423 level. Further... EURGBP- With the cross continuing to hold on to its upside recovery, there is risk of further correction higher. However, the 0.8197 level and the 0.8218 level will have to give way to suggest a bottom is in place for a run further upside towards the 0.8275 level and then the 0.8423 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.8504 level, its Feb 2012 high. On the downside, a return below the 0.7949 level will annul its present upside attempts and bring further weakness the 0.7840 level. A decisive clearance of this level will open the door for a run at the 0.7750 level with a cut through here paving the way for a move lower towards its Oct 2008 low at 0.7691. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further declines. All in all, the cross continues to hold on to its medium term bias despite its recovery attempts.
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]]> Forex Trading Mohammed Isah http://www.traderslog.com/forum/showthread.php?t=20649 <![CDATA[June '12 10 Year T-Notes: Bull Trend]]> http://www.traderslog.com/forum/showthread.php?t=20648&goto=newpost Tue, 22 May 2012 08:32:55 GMT - The MKT has just produced a big positive technical signal. On the SELL side DP BREAKOUT strategies are a low probability but valid. Risk little and go for a lot. If the MKT is going to turn sour, it should be quick and relentless. Avoid UP FADE strategies as the MKT has just produced a major buy... - The MKT has just produced a big positive technical signal. On the SELL side DP BREAKOUT strategies are a low probability but valid. Risk little and go for a lot. If the MKT is going to turn sour, it should be quick and relentless. Avoid UP FADE strategies as the MKT has just produced a major buy signal and fresh gains are expected. UP REVERSAL strategies as well are not recommended, as any resistance level violation that cannot be held is more likely a squeeze for the longs, which can quickly turn positive.

- On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL are recommended as the MKT is aggressively bid and all buy signals are valid opportunity. If stopped out at or near the low tic of a reaction and the MKT is not following through to the downside, leverage up using the squeeze low as a stop, expecting a quick reaction back above your original entry. De-leverage unless you have confluence with other indicators or like MKTs.
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]]> Futures and Commodities Trading JS Services http://www.traderslog.com/forum/showthread.php?t=20648 Daily Forecast: May 22 http://www.traderslog.com/forum/showthread.php?t=20647&goto=newpost Tue, 22 May 2012 04:56:23 GMT *EURUSD Forecast* The EURUSD was volatile yesterday but overall still able to maintain its bullish correction intraday bias. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 1.2875 but the major outlook remains to the downside and I still prefer to sell on rallies. We have a rising wedge formation... EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD was volatile yesterday but overall still able to maintain its bullish correction intraday bias. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 1.2875 but the major outlook remains to the downside and I still prefer to sell on rallies. We have a rising wedge formation and CCI bearish divergence on hourly chart and I expect the current bullish momentum is to be short lived. Immediate support is seen around 1.2750. A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.2700 – 1.2625/41 key support area. On the upside, a clear break and daily close above 1.2875 could trigger further bullish pullback testing 1.3000 area.



GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD was indecisive yesterday. There are no changes in my technical outlook. The bias remains neutral in nearest term but as long as stays below 1.6000 I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase with sell on rallies strategy as a part of the bearish scenario after broke below the trend line support. Immediate resistance remains around 1.5885. A clear break and daily close above that area could trigger further bullish pressure testing 1.6000 key resistance. Immediate support remains around 1.5780. A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure retesting 1.5731 before testing 1.5650 support area.



USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY bearish momentum was stopped yesterday but we have no significant movement so far with low volatility. There are no changes in my technical outlook. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 78.27/50 area. Immediate resistance remains around 79.52. A clear break above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term but we need a clear break and daily close at least back above 80.00 to give the bullish reversal outlook another chance with a false breakdown scenario. The current bearish outlook may lead price to retest the record low at 75.56 but any movement near to the record low might give a good buying opportunity.



USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF was volatile yesterday but overall still able to maintain its bearish correction intraday bias. There are no changes in my technical outlook. The bias remains bearish in nearest term but as long as stays above 0.9320 I still prefer to buy on dips with stop loss below 0.9320. Immediate resistance is seen around 0.9437 (yesterday’s high). A clear break above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term retesting 0.9500 which need to be broken to continue the bullish scenario testing 0.9600. On the downside, a clear break and daily close back below 0.9320 would activate my wait and see mode as direction would become unclear with a bearish intraday bias.



Have a great day! ]]> Forex Trading FxInstructor http://www.traderslog.com/forum/showthread.php?t=20647 Dollar Index: Halts Upside Momentum, Triggers A Correction. http://www.traderslog.com/forum/showthread.php?t=20646&goto=newpost Mon, 21 May 2012 23:31:05 GMT US Dollar Index: With the Index halting its strength and triggering a corrective pullback for a second day in a row, the risk is for more downside to occur.However, the Index continues to hold its broader medium term upside bias suggesting its present weakness is temporary. An extension of the... US Dollar Index: With the Index halting its strength and triggering a corrective pullback for a second day in a row, the risk is for more downside to occur.However, the Index continues to hold its broader medium term upside bias suggesting its present weakness is temporary. An extension of the mention declines will call for a run at its May 14’2012 high at 80.35 level with a cut through here targeting its psycho level at 80.00 level. Further down, support lies at its Feb 06’2012 low at 78.36 level followed by the 77.97 level. On the upside, the 81.78 level, its Jan 2012 high comes in as the next upside with a clearance of here setting the stage for more strength towards the 83.55 level, its Aug’2011 high and possibly higher targeting the 84.55 level. All in all, the Index continues to retain its medium term upside bias though backing off higher prices. ]]> Forex Trading Mohammed Isah http://www.traderslog.com/forum/showthread.php?t=20646