Total Trader

Squawk Box Europe – Bill McLaren

Total Trader — Sun, 08 Aug 2010 22:51:28 +0000

LET’S LOOK AT THE S&P 500 INDEX DAILY CHART

There is a chance, a probability for a high today or Monday. When the July “False Break” low was hit I indicated three probabilities. A new leg up running to a minimum 1247 in 90 to 99 calendar days, a secondary high or fast rally that exhausts before a new high usually 7/8 of the range down in 60 to 65 calendar days. Or a lower double top and this is where the index is now located. So as the index moves into these time window we need to look at the wave structure, volume, price level and the pattern of the trend to confirm the probability. The index is at the “OBVIOUS” resistance of the previous high and now within the time window at 180 days.

There is a 5 wave structure up (5 or 3of 3), volume has been decreasing but not unusual if the trend were up at this stage, but the pattern of trend is not setting up well. Notice how small the daily ranges have become. High points and tops tend to have some volatility. Notice the expansion of ranges during the January top and the April top and in this case the ranges are narrowing. If there is a move down it is possible to see just one to three days down and resumption of the trend due to the resistance being “obvious.”

Running out cycles from the July low has 45 days on the 15th and if a low could indicate a 90 day move up. If this is a counter trend rally in a down trending market the highest probability is to run out 60 to 65 days or out to the first week in September. If there is a high point now it should not exceed 1134. I don’t like the odds for a top due to the small range days and the probability the move down could be a small counter trend down. The small range days leaves a possibility of a large spike up. If today can not advance following yesterday’s reversal up and a daily low is broken I’ll consider a short term move down to trade but I doubt the trend reversal. I hate those small range days as it usually indicates support coming in at high levels and an exhaustion up might be necessary to eliminate the buyers.

GOLD

The two weeks ago I said gold would go to 154 to 157 for a low at 50% of the last leg up. We are now looking for this rally to fail and confirm a downtrend into one of the major support. The move down to 50% of the last leg up to consolidated that leg up. I felt the entire trend since 2008 needed to be consolidated so we are looking for this rally to fail and run down to ¼ of the major range which is the minimum move down to correct or consolidate a major trend or 1122. Once gold establishes a downtrend there is a fast rally as occurred in this uptrend as noted with arrows and this occurs in almost all up trends. So we are looking for evidence this rally will fail at a price above 1212 and possibly on the 12th of August at 1220. If the index runs past 12 trading days there is no high in place and a new high is likely. The pattern of the downtrend was weak so we need solid evidence to conclude a lower high is in place. But that is what we are looking to occur.

Source: McLaren Report

Richard Russell: “A hard rain lies ahead”

Total Trader — Wed, 21 Jul 2010 23:32:36 +0000

Love him or hate him, 85-year old Richard Russell is the doyen of investment letter writers – having been at it for more than half a century – and his views as expressed in his daily Dow Theory Letters always make for stimulating reading. The paragraphs below summarize the R man’s “big picture” view of the U.S. stock market.

“I want to say that I have a number of reasons for being convinced we have been in an upward correction [referring to the rally that commenced in March 2009] in an ongoing primary bear market. Some of this is based on my interpretation of the 50% Principle, plus my analysis of the very poor action of the “internal market” [i.e. market breadth] over recent weeks.

“I envision the Dow dropping to test, and possibly violate, the 6,547 level. I don’t know whether this will take place this year, but I wouldn’t be shocked if it does. It would not surprise me if the Dow tests the 6,547 level. And if that happens, I can almost guarantee the US will have sunk into the much-feared “double-dip” recession.

“If the US begins to shrink into a double-dip recession, I expect the Obama administration to go ‘wild’ with new stimuli and ‘make-work’ programs, all of which will be financed with higher taxes (‘soak the rich’) and a further major expansion of the Federal Reserve balance sheet. I would also expect every central bank in the world to simultaneously open their money-printing spigots wide, wide, wide.

“Conclusion in a nutshell: the secret of the forthcoming picture lies with the action of the U.S. stock market. Again I’ll remind my subscribers that the function of the stock market is to discount the future, not to mirror the present. All news is history. Or as Wall Street puts it, “news known is news discounted”.

“One of the biggest mistakes amateurs make is to think something they know is unknown and not already discounted by the market. Despite this, the media insist on describing every move of the stock market as being a reaction to some current event or some new government statistic. They couldn’t be further off the mark. As I read it, the poor action of the current stock market is telling us that the future for the U.S. is bearish and a hard rain lies ahead.

“At this juncture, sophisticated, wealthy people are not concerned with increasing their fortunes, rather they are searching for ways to conserve what wealth they have.”

Source: Dow Theory Letters, July 19, 2010 & http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2010/07/21/richard-russell-%E2%80%9Ca-hard-rain-lies-ahead%E2%80%9D/

Guildford Coal Limited (GUF) – Listing Today

Total Trader — Wed, 21 Jul 2010 23:23:23 +0000

Guildford Coal Limited (GUF) is due to list today (22-July) at 11:00am.

Company Overview

Guildford has established a portfolio of coal exploration tenement areas in Queensland, Australia. Guildford’s tenements cover an estimated area of in excess of 21,000 square kilometres and are defined within project areas as follows:

• Hughenden Project (Galilee/Eromanga Basins);
• Sierra Project (Bowen Basin);
• Comet Project (Bowen Basin);
• Sunrise Project (Surat/Bowen Basin);
• Monto Project (Nagoorin Graben); and
• Maryborough Project (Maryborough Basin).

For more information, please visit http://www.guildfordcoal.com.au/

1929 Peak versus 2000 Peak?

Total Trader — Tue, 20 Jul 2010 22:31:48 +0000

In a post yesterday, we questioned whether the Dow was really in the midst of repeating a pattern it went through in the early part of the Great Depression. The post got a few comments suggesting that we make a different comparison:

You should really plot what Louise Yamada has been saying for a long long time. She says that the entire market episode from 1928 to 1945 is being repeated all over again if you start your clock in 1999. By that count, the current year corresponds to 1939. It will be great if you could plot these charts. If Louise is right, and past is the prelude, then we are in for choppy market action for another five or six years.
I agree with the comment about Louise’s assessment, especially if you use the Nasdaq composite from 1999 vs the Dow from 1929. I believe it’s a fairer comparison as our economy today is more technology based, whereas it was industrial based in the 30′s.
You’re comparing the wrong time frames. Compare starting at DOW at 1929 and DOW at 2000, then look at the chart.

For those that asked for the charts with the new comparisons, here you go:

Source: http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/7/20/1929-peak-versus-2000-peak.html

Jeremy Grantham: “I am merely fearful”

Total Trader — Tue, 20 Jul 2010 22:22:28 +0000

Jeremy Grantham has become a familiar and very popular face on this site. For those treasuring his insight, wisdom and prescient calls, the co-founder and chief investment strategist of Boston-based GMO has just published the July edition of his quarterly newsletter entitled “Summer Essays”.

Here are a few excerpts from Grantham’s newsletter.

“I am still committed to my idea of April 2009 that there would be a ‘last hurrah’ of the market, supported psychologically by a substantial economic recovery but then, after a year or so, that this would be followed by a transition into a long, difficult period that I called the ‘seven lean years’. I had, though, supposed that the economic reflex recovery – how could it not bounce with that flood of governmental help to everyone’s top line? – would last longer or at least not slow down as fast as we have seen in the last few weeks. And with unexpectedly strong fiscal conservatism from Europe and perhaps from us, this slowdown looks downright frightening. I recognize that in this I agree with Krugman, but I can live with that once in a while. However, where I am merely fearful, he is talking about another ‘Depression’.

“Despite growing nervousness and despite a slowing economy, I am so impressed by the power of low rates and Greenspanism (for lack of a better or shorter description) that I would still put odds of 45% (down from 50% last quarter) for the market to rise to over 1400 (down from 1500 to 1600 last quarter) by October of next year, accompanied by a speculative spin. On the other hand, I also have to recognize that the 21% I put on a quick and rapid decline to fair value looks even more likely today, perhaps closer to 30%.

“If the market does indeed continue down the current sell-off path, it should result in some unusual movement in the Russell 2000 (small cap index) and possibly even the junky stocks, which might give up their unusual relative strength in a real hurry. I can imagine a situation, for example, where the Russell 2000 gives up a relative 10% in two to three weeks as the aggressive investment world finally has second thoughts on the wisdom of continuing to speculate and changes its mind in its usual rapid way. (Remember, you read it here first.) High quality is perhaps not so promising in this respect, but could still win by several percentage points if the world becomes more circumspect. It would be more typical for quality to outperform over several years.”

Click here for the full report (registration is required).

Source – http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2010/07/20/jeremy-grantham-%e2%80%9ci-am-merely-fearful%e2%80%9d/

Booming Mac sales drive Apple’s best-ever quarter

Total Trader — Tue, 20 Jul 2010 22:10:21 +0000

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Record Macintosh and lighting-fast iPad sales made Apple’s latest quarter its best ever, the company said Tuesday.

Sales for the Cupertino, Calif.-based company rose to a record $15.7 billion, 61% higher than Apple’s sales in this quarter last year. Net income rose to $3.25 billion, up 78% from a year ago.

Apple sold 3.27 million iPads, which hit the market on April 3, and it sold 3.47 million Macintosh computers — more than it has ever sold before in a three-month stretch.

Read full article at http://money.cnn.com/2010/07/20/technology/apple_earnings/index.htm

Optimism on U.S. Wanes as Growth Outlook Drops, Merrill Says

Total Trader — Thu, 15 Jul 2010 23:02:52 +0000

Bloomberg – Investors were the most bearish on U.S. stocks in at least four years as money manager scaled back their outlook for global growth and raised their cash holdings, a BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research survey showed.

A net 14 percent of respondents, who together manage about $530 billion, said the U.S. was the region they would most like to have under-represented in their investments, a level not since November 2006. Last month, the same amount said America was the region on which they would most like to have an overweight stance.

Read Complete Article

12 Stocks Ready to Rip After Intel’s Huge Earnings

Total Trader — Thu, 15 Jul 2010 06:37:15 +0000

Intel reported monster earnings yesterday, and its shares are already rallying in the pre-market.

Then again, so are other key tech names as well.

Here are the key stocks to watch ahead of today’s market open.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

Source: Google Finance

Texas Instruments (TXN)

Source: Google Finance

Microsoft (MSFT)

Source: Google Finance

Motorola (MOT)

Source: Google Finance

Taiwan Semi (TSM)

Source: Google Finance

Applied Materials (AMAT)

Source: Google Finance

Commodity Snapshot

Total Trader — Thu, 15 Jul 2010 06:23:32 +0000

Below we highlight our trading range chart for ten major commodities. In each chart, the green shading represents between two standard deviations above and below the commodity’s 50-day moving average. Moves to the top or bottom of this range are considered overbought or oversold.

As shown, oil is trading pretty much in neutral territory at the moment after bouncing off of oversold levels a month and a half ago. Gold has moved down from overbought levels over the last week, and the metal is now closer to the bottom of its range than the top. Silver and platinum are in similar situations. Natural gas has pulled back some after moving into overbought territory a few weeks ago. Looking at some of the agricultural commodities, corn is attempting to break out of a long-term downtrend, while wheat already did so after spiking recently. Both coffee and orange juice have done pretty well lately.

Source: http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/7/7/commodity-snapshot.html

Doug Kass: Stocks Have Hit Bottom For the Year

Total Trader — Wed, 14 Jul 2010 14:10:00 +0000

New York City is in the midst of a serious heat wave, but on Wall Street the stock market is on a major cold streak. Stocks are down 9 of the past 11 sessions. Even Tuesday’s higher close was still well off the highs of the day.

Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners, famous for calling the market bottom in March 2009, isn’t worried. In fact, he’s bullish. “I think we’ve seen the lows of the year,” he tells Tech Ticker guest host Jon Najarian of OptionMonster.com. “The market’s are traveling on a path of fear and share prices have significantly disconnected from fundamentals,” he says.

Kass predicts stocks will rise 10%-12% by year’s end on the back of strong earnings and a better-than-expected economic recovery. He says positive trends in the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing index and improved labor market conditions point to “moderate domestic economic expansion, not a double dip.”

Trading at around 11 times earnings, stocks are fairly inexpensive, says Kass. He notes stocks generally trade at around 15 times future earnings, and even higher in periods of tame inflation and low interest rates, as we’re currently experiencing.

It may not be a V-shaped rally like that of 2009, but Kass says we’ve just started building a base, which could lead to a fundamentally stronger and longer-lasting rally in the future.

Source: http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/doug-kass-stocks-have-hit-bottom-for-the-year-517083.html

Learn Basics of Elliott Wave Analysis — FREE

Total Trader — Tue, 13 Jul 2010 10:18:46 +0000

Ralph Nelson Elliott discovered the Wave Principle in the 1930s. Over the decades, his discovery was kept alive by a handful of individuals. A few of those, such as Bolton, Prechter and Frost, educated investors on how to use pattern analysis in financial markets.

To help out Elliott Wave International’s readers in learning the basics of the method, we put together a free 10-lesson online tutorial. Here’s an excerpt. To get it in full, look for details below.

EWI’s Basic Elliott Wave Tutorial
Lesson 1, excerpt

At that time [of his discovery], with the Dow in the 100s, R. N. Elliott predicted a great bull market for the next several decades that would exceed all expectations at a time when most investors felt it impossible that the Dow could even better its 1929 peak. As we shall see, phenomenal stock market forecasts, some of pinpoint accuracy years in advance, have accompanied the history of the application of the Elliott Wave approach.

Under the Wave Principle, every market decision is both produced by meaningful information and produces meaningful information. Each transaction, while at once an effect, enters the fabric of the market and, by communicating transactional data to investors, joins the chain of causes of others’ behavior. This feedback loop is governed by man’s social nature, and since he has such a nature, the process generates forms. As the forms are repetitive, they have predictive value.

The market…is not propelled by the linear causality to which one becomes accustomed in the everyday experiences of life. Nor is the market the cyclically rhythmic machine that some declare it to be. Nevertheless, its movement reflects a structured formal progression. In markets, progress ultimately takes the form of five waves of a specific structure.

Three of these waves, which are labeled 1, 3 and 5, actually effect the directional movement. They are separated by two countertrend interruptions, which are labeled 2 and 4, as shown in Figure 1-1. The two interruptions are apparently a requisite for overall directional movement to occur.

At any time, the market may be identified as being somewhere in the basic five wave pattern at the largest degree of trend.

Read the rest of this 10-lesson Tutorial and see multiple charts now, free! All you need is to create a free Club EWI profile.

Read the rest of this 10-lesson Basic Elliott Wave Tutorial online now, free! Here’s what you’ll learn:

What the basic Elliott wave progression looks like
Difference between impulsive and corrective waves
How to estimate the length of waves
How Fibonacci numbers fit into wave analysis
Practical application tips for the method
More

Keep reading this free tutorial today.

Source: http://www.safehaven.com/article/17423/learn-basics-of-elliott-wave-analysis-free

CNBC Squawkbox Europe

Total Trader — Mon, 12 Jul 2010 15:18:14 +0000

LET’S LOOK AT THE S&P 500 DAILY CHART

This is the trend since the July low one year ago. This move down has shown three thrusts down or the classic Elliott wave configuration for a low. The retracements or rallies have been large during this downtrend indicating the pattern of trend has not been strong even though it has dropped over 15%. When retracements are large false breaks are possible. Fast trends and trend reversals come from “false breaks” or breaks to new highs or lows above or below “OBVIOUS” resistance or support that fail to follow through. In this instance the rally has moved well above the previous swing low and that is bullish. The low was a 1/8 extension down as show last report and that is the normal price for a “false break” low. The normal counter trend in a fast trend is one to four day and this has rallied 3 days with the last day a smaller range indicating some resistance. Exceeding the fourth day is critical. The calculated resistance at 1/3 to 3/8 of the range down is 1080 to 1090 and that is important. Exceeding 4 days of rally will indicate a low is in place and a selloff should produce a higher low. There is a turning point on the 13th and a higher low around the 24th would be bullish. There are still only four alternatives: a 30 or 45 day fast run to a secondary high around 1180 followed by a bear trend; a struggling move up to 1247 for a top in September or October followed by a two year bear trend. A struggling movement that stays inside the last range down creating a distribution pattern with 3 lower highs. Or a new low to around 950 followed by a 6 month rally and then a bear trend.

LET’S LOOK AT GOLD

Two weeks ago we forecast a top in gold between the 28th June and 3rd July and that high occurred on the 28th. We also indicated it would not be any higher in price since the price targets had been hit.

The objectives for a decline are 1122 at ¼ major range which keeps the uptrend in a strong position for another rally so there needs to be caution with that support. Then 1/3 to 3/8 at 1075 though 1051 as the ultimate objective. The only problem with my forecast is the last low was only 3/8 retracement of the last leg and that small retracement does keep the last leg up intact. But I expect that to be broken and test 1157, bounce to around 1183 and resume the downtrend. But it must break this current support which I didn’t believe would stop the move down. Timing dates are July 17, August 4th for a possible trend completion and August 16th.

Source: http://www.safehaven.com/article/17427/cnbc-squawkbox-europe

Goldman’s Global Leading Inidicator Rolls Over

Total Trader — Tue, 06 Jul 2010 23:00:18 +0000

“Our improved GLI comes at a particularly important time for assessing the cycle. Although our original GLI had not shown a clear peak, we have pointed out for some time that it has been distorted by trending issues in the past few months and that signs ‘under the hood’ have pointed to some slowing in momentum. The improved GLI shows that message more clearly, with a peak now visible there. This suggests that the pace of industrial growth is set to decelerate, although from extremely high levels, an outcome that would be consistent with our GDP forecasts.

Markets are increasingly focused on what this kind of slowing in momentum will mean. As usual at this point in the cycle, the key issue is the extent of deceleration. The acceleration phase in recovery inevitably ends and that point was always likely to come in 2010H1. But, as we show once again, while that shift means a more moderate picture for risk assets, the deceleration is generally only a clear negative event if the slowdown is severe. Although our US forecast is still firmly below consensus, our global forecast does not envisage a sharp slowdown. That said, we will continue to pay close attention to the incoming data on this front, starting with the new release of the GLI tomorrow.”

What does it all mean for the various asset classes? Not surprisingly, when the GLI is in decline equities tend to under perform, bonds outperform, volatility spikes and credit spreads widen:

“Within equities, the performance differentials between periods when the GLI is rising and falling are on average very large, although of course heavily influenced by the impact of serious downturns and recessions. The differences are strongest in emerging markets (EM) and in cyclical equities (our Wavefront growth basket shows that cyclicals tend to outperform strongly in ‘up’ phases and underperform strongly in ‘down’ phases).

Commodities show a similar pattern. But the relationship is strongest for industrial metals including copper (this is true even if they are excluded from the GLI), and least strong for gold and other precious metals. Interestingly, at least over the sample period here, oil has behaved with a strong cyclical bias too.

Bonds display the opposite behaviour, with a strong tendency for yields to fall when the GLI is falling and significant rises when the GLI is rising. That tendency is largest in the US market (front and back) but visible in other majors. There is also some tendency for the yield curve to steepen more when the GLI is falling.

Unsurprisingly, given the other results, credit spreads and equity volatility (as measured by the VIX) also tend to move significantly higher on average during phases when the GLI is falling and narrow when it is rising. These differences have been extremely pronounced in the recent downturn and—as we have described elsewhere—tend to be most dramatic at the ends and beginnings of cycles.

Experience in FX is more mixed. In general EM FX tend to perform better when the GLI is rising than falling and, within the G10, the commodity currencies are by far the most reliably related on the positive side to phases of the GLI. That said, the GBP, SEK and NOK are all confirmed to be more ‘cyclical’ in this simple analysis than the EUR. On the other side, the CHF is the least cyclical of the G10. Within the G3, the message is more mixed—and more varied over time—but there is a modest tendency over the long term for the USD to do better when the GLI is deteriorating.”

Source: GS – http://www.scribd.com/doc/33861708/GoldmanSachs-Global-Economics-Weekly-20100630

Investment Outlook July 2010 by Bill Gross

Total Trader — Thu, 01 Jul 2010 22:56:49 +0000

Alphabet Soup

Global financial market returns stand at the threshold of mediocrity. With bonds priced not for recession but near depression, most major global bond indices now yield less than 3%, surely a forerunner of returns to come. Stocks, long the volatile vamp of investor optimism, have not yet adjusted to the New Normal of half-size economic growth induced by deleveraging, reregulation, and deglobalization and have low single digit prospects as well. Yet, what has seemed obvious to those of us collectively at PIMCO for several years now is less than standard fare in the trading rooms of institutional money managers. While the phrase “New Normal” has been welcomed into the lexicon of reporters and commentators alike, the willingness of investors to accept its realities is fog-ridden and whispered, or perhaps softly whistled, much like midnight passersby at a graveyard. Our “New Normal” two-word duality seems to resonate more on the “normal” than the “new” to economists whose last names aren’t Roubini, Reinhart, Rogoff, or Rosenberg. It’s as if “R” has been eliminated from the financial alphabet, and “new” from investors’ dictionaries worldwide.

Perhaps the enigma arises from a multi-generational acceptance of debt as common scrip, available for the asking and seemingly forever productive in boosting living standards – until, that is, liabilities became so large that the interest burden and probability of repayment overwhelmed borrower and lender alike in near unison. To understand why debt may have become a burden instead of a boon it is instructive as Philip Coggan points out in a recent Economist article, to ask why people, companies and countries borrow in the first place.

They do so, he intelligently argues, to boost their standard of living, to bring consumption forward instead of languishing in the present. How could almost any of us have afforded a home without a mortgage? By the time we would have saved enough money we’d have been close to retirement with the kids grown and facing a similar predicament. And so we turned to the wizardry of borrowing on time to be able to purchase and then repay in full. Crucially, since debt is a handshake between at least two parties, the lender had to believe that it would be repaid, and that belief or “credere,” was based on several rather rational expectations when observed on a macro level from 30,000 feet.

First of all, capitalistic innovation fostered productivity, and an increasing standard of living through technology and innovation. Debts could be paid back via profits and higher wages if only because of rising prosperity itself. Secondly, the 20^th century, which fathered the debt supercycle, was a time of global population growth despite its interruption by tragic world wars and periodic pandemics. Prior debts could be spread over an ever-increasing number of people, lessening the burden and making it possible to assume even more debt in a seemingly endless cycle which brought consumption forward – anticipating that future generations could do the same.

But while technological innovation – much like Moore’s law – seems to have endless promise, population growth in numerous parts of the developed world is approaching a dead end. Not only will it become more difficult to transfer high existing debt burdens onto the smaller shoulders of future generations, but the overlevered, aging “global boomers” themselves will demand a disproportionate piece of stunted future goods and services – without, it seems, the ability to pay for it. Creditors, sensing the predicament, hold back as they recently have in Greece and other southern European peripherals, or in the U.S. itself, as lenders demand larger down payments on new home mortgages, and other debt extensions.

Aging and population change of course are just part of the nemesis. We could have “saved” for this moment much like squirrels in wintertime but humanity’s free will is infected with greed, avarice and in a majority of instances, hope as opposed to commonsense. We overdid a good thing and now the financial reaper is at the door, scythe and financial bill in one hand, with the other knocking on door after door of previously unsuspecting households and sovereigns to initiate a “standard of living” death sentence.

What is harder to understand in this demographic/psychological/sociological explanation of the crisis is why it should morph into a global phenomenon. There are 6.5 billion people in the world and will soon be 1 billion more. Many of them are debt-free and have never used a credit card or assumed a home mortgage. Why can’t lenders like PIMCO lend to them, allowing developing nations to bring their consumption forward, developed nations to supply the goods and services, and the world to resume its “old normal” path toward future profits, prosperity and increasing standard of living? To a certain extent that is what should gradually happen, promoting more rapid growth in the emerging nations and a subdued semblance of it in the G-7 – a “new normal.”

But they – the developing nations – are not growing fast enough, at least internally, to return global growth to its old standards. Their financial systems are immature and reminiscent of a spindly-legged baby giraffe, having lots of upward potential but still striving for balance after a series of missteps, the most recent of which was the Asian crisis over a decade ago. And so they produce for export, not internal consumption, and in the process leave a gaping hole in what is known as global aggregate demand. Developed nation consumers are maxed out because of too much debt, and developing nations don’t trust themselves to stretch their necks for the delicious leaves of domestic consumption just above.

It is this lack of global aggregate demand – resulting from too much debt in parts of the global economy and not enough in others – that is the essence of the problem, which only economists with names beginning in R seem to understand (there is no R in PIMCO no matter how much I want to extend the metaphor, and yes, Paul _Rugman fits the description as well!). If policymakers could act in unison and smoothly transition maxed-out indebted consumer nations into future producers, while simultaneously convincing lightly indebted developing nations to consume more, then our predicament would be manageable. They cannot. G-20 Toronto meetings aside, the world is caught up as it usually is in an “every nation for itself” mentality, with China taking its measured time to consume and the U.S. refusing to acknowledge its necessity to invest in goods for export.

Even if your last name doesn’t begin with R, the preceding explanation is all you need to know to explain what is happening to the markets, the global economy, and perhaps your own wobbly-legged standard of living in recent years. Consumption when brought forward must be financed, and that financing is a two-way bargain between borrower and creditor. When debt levels become too high, lenders balk and even lenders of last resort – the sovereigns, the central banks, the supranational agencies – approach limits beyond which private enterprise’s productivity itself is threatened. We have arrived at a New Normal where, despite the introduction of 3 billion new consumers over the past several decades in “Chindia” and beyond, there is a lack of global aggregate demand or perhaps an inability or unwillingness to finance it. Slow growth in the developed world, insufficiently high levels of consumption in the emerging world, and seemingly inexplicable low total returns on investment portfolios – bonds and stocks – lie ahead. Stop whispering (and start shouting) the words “New Normal” or perhaps begin to pronounce your last name with an RRRRRRRRRRRR. Our global economy, our use of debt, and our financial markets have changed – not our alphabet or dictionary.

Source: http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/IO/2010/Investment+Outlook+Gross+Alphabet+Soup+July.htm

Global investor confidence rises but North Americans remain pessimistic

Total Trader — Thu, 01 Jul 2010 00:32:31 +0000

Global investor confidence has risen by 1.3 points in June to 89.7. European (up 5.4 points) and Asian (up 1.7 points) confidence rose in June, according to the State Street Investor Confidence Index.

North Americans continued to be pessimistic, with confidence levels falling by 6.3 points to 92.2 compared with May’s 98.5

Question marks over the state of the US job market and overall US aggregate demand may have slowed the pace of economic recovery, according to Harvard University professor Ken Froot who together with Paul O’Connell from State Street Associates created the index.

There is “some evidence of stabilisation in risk appetite outside North America,” added O’Connell.

“A look at the underlying data confirms the strongest regional flows are into emerging markets, with the exception of emerging Eastern Europe,” he noted.

Globally, investor confidence has been slowly rising October 2008, after it hit its all time low after the collapse Lehman. Following a slight decrease in April and May 2010, the global increases give an optimistic tinge to the overall sentiment.

The State Street Investor Confidence Index measures investor confidence on a quantitative basis by analysing the actual buying and selling patterns of institutional investors. The index gives a precise meaning to changes in investor risk appetite, the greater the percentage allocation to equities, the high the risk appetite or confidence.

The Index shows the sentiment of institutional investors as it is based on actual trades rather than survey data.

Source: http://www.hedgefundsreview.com/hedge-funds-review/news/1720034/global-investor-confidence-rises-north-americans-remain-pessimistic

Don Coxe – Investment recommendations (June 2010)

Total Trader — Tue, 29 Jun 2010 10:56:21 +0000

The June edition of Donald Coxe’s Basic Points research report (subtitled “Summer’s Storms and Norms”) has just been published. His investment recommendations, as summarized in this document, are listed in the paragraphs below, but I do recommend you also read the full report.

1. Canadian bonds, equities and bank deposits are excellent investments for investors based in other currencies. Canadians should take advantage of the Loonie’s current weakness to borrow in greenbacks and otherwise hedge any risks they have to the outcome of a new global love affair with the Loon.

2. Resist the urge to buy the Macondo well-related stocks now that BP has somewhat capped the well. US trial lawyers cannot believe their luck: they will be able to sue, for treble damages, everybody involved in the well in the infamous “hellhole” courts of Louisiana and Alabama, where the judges’ electioneering costs are paid by plaintiffs’ lawyers. BP’s $20 billion payment will prove to be just a down payment. This is, for these predators, the equivalent of getting advance advice of the winning numbers in a multi-billion-dollar lottery.

3. The oil sands producers don’t benefit as much as the US trial lawyers from the BP disaster, but there are two ways their stockholders benefit: firstly, by reminding the public that the large-scale alternatives to oil sands petroleum involve much greater environmental risks, they will take some heat off the beleaguered companies; secondly, an offshore oil boom that might have followed from Obama’s cautious reopening of offshore drilling has become a bust. That frees up investor capital allocated toward oil stocks to buy oil sands producers’ shares as the least-costly way to acquire multibillion-barrel North American exposures.

4. Remain heavily overweight oil compared with natgas. Gas prices have climbed because of the cutoff of expected production from the Gulf, but this should be only a temporary price boost. As Macondo has tragically demonstrated, finding big oil deposits is a high-cost, high-risk business. Finding gigantic natgas deposits is a low-cost, low-risk business. Natgas risks becoming the hydrocarbon equivalent of political hot air: cheap, never-ending and ubiquitous.

5. Gold is more than the Bad News Bear’s New Favorite. It is the completely inverse investment to paper money and complex financial derivatives, making it the multi-millennial belief system to which modern investors can return from the financial system’s current excesses, misrepresentations, and bad politics. In a bull market for gold, the well-managed mines will outperform the bullion. A recommended alternative is the royalty companies.

6. Barring some war in the Korean Peninsula or the Mideast, or the collapse of some major European banks, this stock market pullback should continue to be a correction, not the first chapter in a new horror story. A new crash at a time of zero rates remains an unlikely outcome − but not as unlikely as it seemed two months ago before we found out about where all those trichinositic eurobonds were stashed.

7. Remain invested in companies that produce what China and India need. No matter what happens in the OECD, these economies will continue to grow faster than the US or Europe. Their public employees aren’t paid more than their private sector earns, and they don’t retire young. Their governments are not laden with debts that can only be serviced with economic growth at unachievable levels. In other words, they are doing the big things right − and the OECD collectively is doing them wrong. There is no reasonable doubt about which economies will grow most rapidly, with the lowest recession risk.

The full report follows below. (Click on “Fullscreen” for readable version.)

Don Coxe, Basic Points – June Reflections: Summer’s Storms and Norms 061710

Source: Scribd, June 2010.

The great Berkshire Hathaway index run-up

Total Trader — Mon, 28 Jun 2010 23:13:23 +0000

Now that Berkshire’s Class B shares have joined the Russell 1000, portfolio managers who paid a pretty penny can breathe easy again.

The runup this year in Berkshire Hathaway’s Class B stock (BRKB) is a good reminder of the power of an old kind of index arbitrage: buy high and sell higher, when the index-fund managers get in.

Usually, when fund managers engage in index arbitrage, they’re weighing the value of an index’s different stocks against each other, choosing the leaders and the laggards. But this year, there has been an easier strategy: cleverer hedge-fund managers or short-term investors just lie in wait until the announcement that a big stock will be added to an index; after the announcement, they buy up tons of the stock, driving up the price for the poor index-fund portfolio managers who are required to hold all the stocks in the index – so they pay exorbitant prices to own the shares.

Exhibit A: Berkshire Hathaway’s Class B stock has been zooming up for the past few days, most recently with a nearly 4% jump on Friday to close at $81.90. The reason: As of this morning’s open, Berkshire Hathaway has been added to the Russell 1000 Index. Berkshire is a giant, so it immediately ranked among the top 10 companies on the index, by size. Berkshire’s Class B stock alone will make up 1.1% of the Russell 1000 index. According to Goldman Sachs analyst David Kostin, 17.6% of the Russell 1000 holdings are now in financials, a full percentage point higher than they were before Berkshire joined.

The big jump in Berkshire’s Class B might cause some Russell 1000-following index managers to groan, but it’s probably a big relief to one group of investors: the portfolio managers who bought Berkshire’s class B stock at pretty rich prices after February 12, when it was added to the S&P 500 index. For those investors, who paid roughly $76 a share and up, things looked dark for a while in early June, when the stock dropped to $70 a share. Then, like Christmas in June, there was the announcement mid-month that Berkshire would join the Russell 1000, and all of a sudden the S&P 500 index-followers could breathe easy that the stock was worth something again. Overall, it’s hardly been a bad play: Over the course of seven months, Berkshire’s Class B stock jumped from around $65 a share in late January, around the time the stock took a 50-to-1 stock split, to $81.90 as of Friday’s close.

Of course, none of this could have happened until Berkshire’s leader, Warren Buffett, chose to compromise on his opposition to short-term investing. Buffett always liked to keep his company’s stock an exclusive playground for long-term holders — witness the Class A shares (BRKA) trading at $122,300 each these days — but the 50-to-1 stock split in Class B stock was reportedly spurred by Buffett’s need to find a wider universe of investors to help finance Berkshire Hathaway’s acquisition of the Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad. The stock split dropped the price of Class B shares from $3,275 each to more like $65 each.

The enormous growth in the trading volume of Berkshire’s Class B shares shows the success of Buffett’s populist move. Before the S&P 500 move, Berkshire’s Class B traded at around 5.5 million shares a day; now, it’s more like 10.18 million shares a day.

These boosts are temporary, of course; as of Monday morning, Berkshire’s Class B already started to pull back, dropping 1% in early morning trading to around $81 a share. Of course, if any of those Russell 1000 index managers find that the Berkshire Class B stock loses even bigger chunks of its pop after the index-buying games are over, they might just have to swallow their hard luck: there aren’t that many more indexes that the stock can list on.

By Heidi N. Moore, contributor – Source: http://wallstreet.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2010/06/28/the-great-berkshire-hathaway-index-run-up/

Comming Soon – webIress

Total Trader — Mon, 21 Jun 2010 06:29:30 +0000

Total Trader will be soon releasing the webIRESS platform which allows you to trade Shares, Options and CFDs all from the same web based platform.

The webIRESS software provides customers with a state of the art, browser based trading platform, combining outstanding speed, security and reliability to enable direct electronic market access to many of the stock markets around the globe.

webIRESS Benefits

Real Market Depth – view in real-time, the volume and prices offered on ASX listed shares and Options.
Live real-market tradable prices – webIRESS provides clients with straight through processing and Direct Market Access (DMA).
Participate in ASX Price Auctions – participate in the pre and post market price auctions at the open and close of the ASX market.
Alerts – Trade, News, Price and Volume alerts available by SMS, email or pop-up.
Real Time Charting & Tools – Charting timeframes from intra 1 min to yearly with in-built technical indicators including Moving Averages, Exponential Moving Averages, Bollinger Bands & Stochastic Oscillators.
Real-time portfolio updates – Monitor your positions in real-time. View your account equity, orders, positions, margin requirements and liquidation values.
Multiple order types – including Market, Stop (trailing, entry and exit), Limits and Contingent orders.
Company News – Access announcement and news on all ASX listed companies provided by Reuters and Dow Jones.

Guildford Coal Limited (GUF) Share Offer

Total Trader — Wed, 02 Jun 2010 23:37:53 +0000

To access this offer and for a copy of the prospectus including the application form, please contact Eden Hage at eden.hage@stonebridgegroup.com.au or on 07 5504 2141.

INDICATIVE KEY DATES
Prospectus lodged with ASIC 27 May 2010
Opening Date 10 June 2010
Closing Date 11 June 2010
Expected date for allocation of shares 18 June 2010
Expected date for despatch of holding statements 21 June 2010
Expected date for the quotation of the Company’s securities on ASX 24 June 2010

Company Overview

Guildford has established a portfolio of coal exploration tenement areas in Queensland, Australia. Guildford’s tenements cover an estimated area in excess of 21,000 square kilometres and are defined within project areas as follows:

• Hughenden Project (Galilee/Eromanga Basins)
• Sierra Project (Bowen Basin);
• Comet Project (Bowen Basin);
• Springsure Project (Bowen Basin) (acquisition to be completed on the date of successful close of the Offer);
• Sunrise Project (Surat/Bowen Basin);
• Monto Project (Nagoorin Graben); and
• Maryborough Project (Maryborough Basin).

According to the Independent Technical Expert:

“The projects represent a diversified portfolio of genuine coal exploration targets located in the premium coal basins of Queensland with potential for a variety of coals including export thermal, PCI and hard coking qualities. The projects are mostly located close to existing rail infrastructure and present the opportunity to access multiple port facilities. Guildford has proposed a two year program of exploration on each of the areas held by the Company. The program is designed to define the coal resources to at least Inferred status by year one, although in several cases it should be possible that resources may be defined to Indicated and Measured status by year two.”

ASX Stock Report 10-5-10

Total Trader — Mon, 10 May 2010 08:05:05 +0000

1. More volatility makes for busier times in the trading business. Last week we had a revision of 6% in our equities market, and today we’ve made back more than a third of those losses. All ords was up 114.8pts, all sectors up across the board with Resources and banks gaining >3% on ASX200.

ASX200 4599.8 +2.66%

SPI Futures 4610.0 +3.04%

DJIA Futures 10,621 +286pts

2. NAB business survey -3pts, to +13 (>l-term average of +7). Business conditions -5pts to +8 and capacity utilisation flat at around 82% in April. Proof the intention of tighter RBA policy coming to fruition in business as well as consumers, putting a halt to prices.

3. ANZ job ads survey -1.2% in April, +14.9% on a p.a. basis.

4. Clearly best performers of the day where those hardest hit from last week RIO +5.69% CBA +4.74% WBC +24.96% LNG +25% BMN +22.73%

5. IPL results today stock was up ~3% by 10.20am. despite falling revenue -27.6%, an ~50% fall in Raw materials and -34% in operating expenses was the reason for the substantial +33% rise in profits (market expected NP $152.8M vs. actual NPAT $132.4M). Over the period a complete turnaround in operating cash flows from -$112.8M to +$79.2M and less capex on PP&E without diluting issued equity points to a successful year for the company financially. They have endured a very strong Australian dollar, lower fertilizer prices, a soft US economy and challenging business conditions. EPS basis the company is better off +22.4% YoY 8.2c HY FY10 vs. 6.7c HY FY09, and then again on a NTA $0.27 HY10 vs. -$0.14 HY09. Fertilizers revenue -21.4% HY10oHY09, explosives -31.9%. IPL has shifted focus and will benefit off leverage into the US market. The focus has changed in primary product from fertilizer to Explosives after their US private subsidiary took over Dyno Nobel, 16th June 2008. Explosives earnings mix 58% vs. 47% over HY10 from HY09. So far the company has projected sustainable earnings for explosives by CY12 US$204M. Currently under their ‘velocity’ program has provided US$96.9M in sustainable revenue. Velocity being the program from acquisition of Dyno Nobel and their strategy to implement a sustainable earnings generating explosives business. For this HY Velocity has returned 43% of US$60M capital injection. Market has on average begun to factor in the US$204M projection with broker consensus upgrades puts the stock back on and up-trend. Market expects impact of Super profits tax on IPL to be a reduction to earnings by ~5% from FY13 on Phosphate Hill mine but still uncertainty resides on any material impact. IPL $3.17 +4.28%

6. Peabody blaming uncertainty around the resources SPT for reducing their Macarthur bid to $5. WHC looks like the market preferred Australian coal producer. Stock has been very resilient to news over the RSPT trading flat over the week from the 3rd of May. WHC $4.96 +2.69% MCC $13.38 -2.26% GCL $11.73 -0.59% COK $0.435 +3.57% CEY $4.51 +2.04%

7. Xstrata has suspended a $30M copper exploration project in central QLD due to the RSPT.

8. Gold Prices getting resistance at US$1200/oz since +US$50/oz last week, slip below US$1200 for the first time since last week. NCM $31.44 -0.16% LGL $3.90 EAU $18.10 +0.22% SBM $0.27 +5.88%.

9. GPT AGM: report >90% occupancy rates at all levels (wholesale & office), gearing Dec 09 23.5%, investing $220M p.a., distributing 3c/share or 80% of realised operating income. No clear guidance given for the FY. Jono Senior (our property analyst) has given a list of diversified office trusts that have compelling price discounts to NTA. CDI $0.53 NTA 69c, DXS $0.79 NTA $1.01, IOF $0.605 NTA $0.80. Given the MGR offer for WOT we may have begun moving out of the discounting cycle for Office REIT valuations. GPT $0.555 +1.83%

10. Transurban group buys rights to Sydney’s Lane Cove tunnel. TCL $4.92; AIO $1.65 +3.13%; CEU $0.40 -1.23% offshore exposure – ITO $1.115 +3.72%; MAP $3.01 -0.99%; TOL $6.56 -2.96%. One can expect that fiscal money injections into infrastructure will only further circulate money in the industry and impact revenues across the board, conditional on the individual company’s performance. TCL in trading halt as they move to give a share purchase plan.

11. Webjet confirmed HY profit guidance, $5.2M. Trades at discount traditionally to industry Wotif PE +20x, however at a premium to market PE FY10 ~15.5x. A very effective entrance to NZ marketplace has put the company in good stead, however to model this for further international expansion would be insufficient as the NZ market would have quite different dynamics to say that of the US. The other concern in the short term would be the revision in discretionary spending; however given a competitive AUD encouraging international travel this may offset such issues. Webjet expects ~$5.197M NPAT for the 2H of this year, by my calculations the stock is trading on a PE 15.75x. This is still a ~21% discount to Wotif. The consensus is that WTF is cheap at FY10 PE 24.9x, & FY11 PE 20.8x. These facts included we can expect the performance of WEB to the end of this FY to remain above $2. WEB $2.14 +3.38% WTF $6.48 +4.01%

12. Rhetoric in the federal budget tomorrow will provide further insight into the government’s intention with business and the overall financial health of the Australian economy. We can expect there to be impacts on future earnings figures post the release of the budget tomorrow.

ASX Stock Report 7-5-10

Total Trader — Fri, 07 May 2010 09:44:26 +0000

1. Plenty of action in the market today, poor offshore leads all ords -170pts after open. Seemingly the effect of resources tax now factored in as ASX200 material +>1% in mid trading but ended -0.5% as more selling came late afternoon.

ASX 200 4480.7 -2.02%

SPI Futures 4474.0 -2.16%

DJIA Futures 10478 +21pts

2. RBA Policy Statement global recovery, most noticeably in Asia (ex-Japan) yet north Atlantic economies output three percent below previous peaks. Particular notice of Europe. Which raises the question of what about investments in Emerging Market securities? Or has the benefit been exhausted, and then you have to manage the limitations of operating in emerging markets like China v Google example. In terms of the domestic economy the RBA are certain the economy will continue to grow, after enduring a relatively mild impact of the global downturn. They are happy with private sector demand and household sentiment. The business sector has still a little uncertainty running through it, according to them. They expect business to remain cautious in their spending plans despite their general optimism of the future. I suppose putting aside the short term impacts in Europe and US, the real concern for markets may have not had come to the fore just yet, the question surrounds the ability of developed nations to be able to finance their debt funding when they come due in 2012. What will happen to credit markets if developed economies are incapable of running surpluses to fund their debt issues? But that is still some time to come, however does strengthen the argument for emerging market exposure long term.

Brazil, China, and India probably the most developed of the emerging markets, picking out Aussie stocks operating in these parts of the world: NSL; BDR; CGM; AXA; WOR; SGT

Then the riskier nations south East Asia, Indonesia, Thailand stocks exposed to the greater eco growth potential: KRL; QAN Jetstar; ATB; CBD

3. Alumina AGM reiterated guidance for annual profit expected 10% for 2010. Sentiment for global aluminium demand is quite positive. Norwegian aluminium group Norsk Hydro have had better then expected first-quarter results and expect demand in the market would group by 12% this year, other sources forecast output 39mmT p.a. compared with 37mmT in 2009. Alumina would argue that their scale globally would contribute to the 10% expectation, which is still not equivalent to prior 2008 levels. Leads from LME aluminium prices overnight -0.8%. Lead, platinum and Nickel all better performing, gold -0.54% over the day. Gold/silver pairs trade on short Gold fundamentals. USD strength, risk transference to US treasuries. AWC $1.58 -0.32%

4. Bauxite Resources an alternative Aluminium trade. From the company’s quarterly activities report it is evident they are still establishing resources however have performed extremely well +643% from October 07 to Sep 09. They are winning contracts, continuing to drill and have begun shipment of bauxite and alumina or aluminium oxide. Both key components of aluminium production. BAU stock has come back from $1.30 25th Sep 09 when the company raised $57M equity to fund infrastructure development. BAU $0.365 +4.29%

5. Equinox quarterly production report strong net income and production results from their African copper & uranium mines despite bad weather. Market has already factored the results in however for a smaller mining play the company does have plenty of potential upside. Brokers are divided on their outlook with the stock is +187% since 27th Oct’08 EQN $3.93 -1.01%

6. Karoon Gas have struck a gas well, finding enough gas to justify production testing. Exploration well off coast of WA drilled by JV ConcoPhillips. KAR $7.99 +14.14%

7. Telecom NZ expect to be near the lower range of EBITDA Guidance -1 to +2%. Payout ratio approx 90% of adjusted net earnings, nil discount on DRP. NZ Reserve Bank Governor yesterday was reported indicating there may be a rate rise by mid-year. Domestic investment still remains subdued and credit markets are still tight, however his statement indicated business was bruised but not permanently scarred. Reflecting a more positive outlook on the economy, whether or not this has a material impact on Telecom NZ is debatable. TEL $1.695 -1.17%

8. JB Hi-Fi confirms soft sales guidance for March and April however has no implication on the stock. JBH defensive stock which has held up in a depressed market. JBH $18.98 +1.12%

9. It is evident that unhedging domestic equities is a mid-term theme, however in the short term a rebound in the equities market is likely once taxes, interest rates priced in. Tonight US nonfarm Payrolls data will further indicate the relative strength in the US economy, one would expect. Given these factors there would have to be a correction in the AUD which would make export driven companies including domestic resources companies quite attractive.

10. To conclude, enjoy the weekend and wish your mother a happy mother day from all of us at StoneBridge Group.

ASX Stock Report 6-5-10

Total Trader — Thu, 06 May 2010 08:45:31 +0000

1. Australian equities market is still correcting itself after the government’s proposal of a new mining tax and the sixth interest rate rise in eight months on Tuesday get priced in.

ASX 200 4573.2 -2.16%

SPI Futures 4559.0 -0.31%

2. Still plenty of volume in resources, banks also changing hands today.

3. ABS retail trade data March 0.3% < 0.5% expected. Aussie Dollar fell 40bps to 0.905/USD after release; AUD/USD was back to 0.9076 by 2pm. Factors contributing to consumer spending and the lower than expected retail sales data include rising interest rates, gasoline prices and the halt in government stimulus spending for the consumer.

4. ABS balance of goods as services, seasonally adjusted, March deficit $2.082B. Exports +2% imports +3%.

5. KPMG analysis of major banks’ results positive about the performance of our banks. The independent auditor attributes improvement in profits, reduced impairment charges and minimal impact of the global financial crises to their opinion of our banks. KPMG did note some have expressed disappointment with weaker-than expected interest margins from pricing competition in the mortgage market and admit wholesale funding costs remain a concern.

6. Big four banks have all passed on the 0.25% interest rate onto standard variable rates.

7. NAB the weakest of the banks reporting interim net profit -21.4% interim div 74c < expected 75c. The Company is in a better position when considering bad debts and is still quite optimistic on their outlook for the remaining of this FY.

8. Santos AGM – expects production for 2010 to be slightly below original forecast results in range 49-52Mbarrels of oil. They are confident of making an announcement for new customer on LNG JV in QLD, the company is happy to do away with 9% of an interest to attract a partner. Still happy with energy stock over hard assets, simply from the certainty of demand. STO $13.01 +0.77%

9. Aviva Corporation submitted an initial reserve report, offshore coal project in Botswana Africa. Probable reserve 895MT for run of mine. Completed required technical studies for registration as a sub-project of the Botswana Power Corp, as well as registering access to the Southern African Power Pool Network. SRK independent consultants RoM Coal reserve estimates 28yrs steady state production 10.02MTpa. “There is sufficient geological information to have the confidence to estimate the RoM Reserves in this manner.” AVA 0.094 +17.5%

10. Cougar Metals awarded a tender from Beadell resources for $2.5M 4-month drilling contract in Brazil. Beadell is operating an offshore gold mine, Ampari Gold mine in Brazil. Cougar’s existing diamond drilling rigs are brining in business worth now A$12M and gaining a solid reputation. The rig is expected to be on site at Ampari in two weeks. CGM $0.025 +8.7% BDR $0.16

11. Sims Metals positive outlook on scrap flows, subject to economic conditions. Expecting improvement in earnings, reported 3Q results scrap intake +3%. Have progressed from recording losses and writing off assets to making profits YTD 70.4M, 3Q Net Profit +30.4M. Global revenue -40% on poor scrap intake -4%, Sales in Europe also -2% a strong dollar also contributing to the offshore results. If you’re a believer in a turnaround especially in the US this may be a good stock to add to a portfolio, SGM $20.88 +2.6%

12. NBN Implementation study released to market today, still no clear outcome for Telstra. TLS +1% adding 1.78index pts to the all ords by lunch. The stock went up to $3.22 after the study was released the settled < $3.10. The independent study by McKinsey & Co and KPMG stated the $43B cost of the project is realistic. The study was based on the basis the government could build the network without the help of Telstra, but has recommended the government do a deal with Telstra to leverage off its vast infrastructure. The government will take public comment until May 27and expects to respond to the study mid-year. TLS $3.08 -1.6%

13. iiNet upgrades guidance range toward the upper end of previous range EBITDA $75-80M. Partnership with FetchTV, moving toward goal of 15% Market Share, 12.4% MS at present. IIN $2.74 +0.74%

14. Downer Telecoms secures first NBN contract to provide network design services for first release site pilot programme. More positive news for Downer, first set of Waratah trains to be delivered to NSW rail by the end of this CY. DOW $6.75 +0.45%

15. Myer is confident it will meet targets however cautious they may be about the 2H FY10. Target FY10 EBIT growth 10.7%, the stock has been heavily hit since floating last year at $4.10. MYR 3.16 -2.17% -5.36% MoM +1.27% QoQ DJS $4.46 -2.41% -5.6% MoM, -3.03$ QoQ. The majority of brokers are quite bullish the stock.

16. Brambles forecast flat full year revenue as it is yet to see sales growth from U.S. pallet pooling operations. A continued cautious outlook and concern over northern hemisphere economies that provide about 75% of revenue for the company lead the to finish BXB $7.13 -1.66%

17. Tomorrow the quarterly Statement of Monetary Policy will be released and should give away further rational for the rate rise earlier this week. Along with AI Group HIA performance of construction index, first quarter productivity figures will be released in the US overnight.

ASX Stock Report 4-5-10

Total Trader — Tue, 04 May 2010 08:11:24 +0000

1. This morning’s trade started with the remnants of yesterday’s resources selling but what really tipped the scales was the RBA decision to raise interest rates by a further 25bps, the six interest rate rise in eight months. Reflective of the strength in the Australian economy, however not helping the market gain any.

ASX200 4737.1 -1.01%

SPI Futures 4744.0 -1.06%

2. Stone bridge flow today in M2 Communications as the stock comes back on the board in late trade after raising $20M. Interestingly enough a lot of institutional buying in the market today.

3. The statement from Governor Glen Stevens on the RBA decision to raise the cash rate to 4.5% was based on better than expected global growth. Improved global financial market functions. Domestically the terms of trade have rebounded quicker than expected, credit conditions both at a personal level and business level have improved and inflation declining but not as much as earlier forecasts. The RBA maintain there 2-3% inflation target.

4. CBA-Australia Chamber of Commerce and Industry business expectations March quarter rose to 63.69pts from 62.7. +35pts YoY

5. Consolidation in the resources sector again a theme of today with Lihir directors have unanimously recommended shareholders vote in favour of the improved $9.5B Newcrest Mining deal. Peabody energy also demanded greater access to Macarthur Coal after having completed due diligence and admits the Governments planned tax changes could impact the deal.

6. Lihir have accepted a revised offer from Newcrest, entitling Lihir stock holders 1NCM share for every 8.75 LGL stock held. + Unchanged 22.5c/share cash. Represents a +6.4% improvement to the initial deal offered last month. LGL +3.8% NCM -3.99% post announcement. Interesting is the speed at which the offer was revised given the outcomes of Henry Tax Review outlined yesterday and their respective effect on revenue projections.

7. Westfield confirms distribution forecast 64c/share 70-75% of operating income after recording better than expected sales. Near full occupancy of 99.5% & reversing the decision to put development projects on hold, projecting $1B spend on investment projects going forward 80% of which will be Australian based. {WDC $13.14 +0.08%}

8. Tomorrow ABS buildings approval data along with the CBA performance of services index for April will provide further detail into the relative strength of the Australian economy. Also NWS and WBC will be reporting.

ASX Stock Report 3-5-10

Total Trader — Mon, 03 May 2010 15:29:51 +0000

1. Outcomes of the Henry Tax Review proposed by the government yesterday have had a knee-jerk effect on the equity market today. BHP and RIO where down by 2.73% and 4% respectively in London. Then WHC -7.52%, BHP -4.42%, FMG -5.24%, NCM -3.29% MCC -6.92% and kept going & WHC -7.33% just after the open. We would expect the case for implementation of the reform a little more difficult longer term; however this did not excuse the market for factoring it in today and for there to be trading ideas off the back of the proposition. There is a case for excessive selling just as there is a case for unhedging Australian exposed projects.

ASX 200 4785.5 -0.46%

Futures 200 4795 -0.5%

2. In an effort to redistribute wealth and improve national savings The Resources Super Profit tax will discourage foreign capital inflow, increase tension between corporate Australia and the government and may even miss the resource boom altogether by the time it is implemented so the government is really shooting themselves in the foot by attempting to implement the reform.

3. The other thing to consider with the compulsory super contribution increase by 3% just how much of a contribution that will make to fund managers FUM and where that will in-turn get invested? The SG increase to 12% from 9% is planned to take effect by 2020 and set to add $85B to the national savings pool over the next decade.

BT Investment Management +9.09% $2.76 likely to get a lift from directors’ announcement special div 12.5c/share. Also increased interim div income from 3c to 5.5c/share. Reported Net profit +58% YoY today, remain cautious on remainder of 2010. NAB $27.90 -0.36% CBA $58.93 +0.72% AMP $6.30 +0.64% AXA $6.22 +0.48%

4. Signs in the economy are still strong. Australia’s manufacturing sector grew in April at its fastest rate since 2002 driven by building and infrastructure. The AIG – PWC performance of manufacturing index +9.3pts to 59.8 MoM. Textiles, basic metal products, food and beverages helped drive the rebound while clothing and footwear dragged. A sub-index of employment rose 7.3pts to 55.2.

5. Transfield investor day did not give much away in terms of guidance, the company expecting flat to moderate profit growth for the FY10. However the company did confirm it won a tender for $185M JV 5-yr contract for maintenance to the AGL jointly owned Loy Yang Power station in Victoria State on Thursday. Some strong offshore contracts (35% of revenue for 1H FY10 offshore) and outlook to pursue expansion in Canada, Chile and US stock was +1.5% by 2pm. (TSE $4.04 +1.51% at close)

6. BLY $0.35 +6.06% Boart Longyear upgrades guidance citing global pickup in demand for drilling rigs and services. Revenue for Year to Dec.31 expected +33%. EBITDA forecast +76%, previously revenue growth 15%.

7. Crippled PPP train development deal for Downer EDI gets some certainty in it today with the company stating it is well underway for the waratah NSW rail set expecting the first full set to come into service by late 2010.0 (DOW $7.05 +0.71%)

8. WorsleyParsons Ltd 50:50 JV with US company Fluor Corp to provide services on the US$18.8B Alcoa and Saudi Arabian mining and refinery operation for aluminium. (WOR $26.68 +0.11%)

9. Orica HY NPAT $55M down 75% YoY. The reduced year-on-year half year profits had been anticipated, news that DuluxGroup will be split from the consolidated company into a stand-alone business and strong outlook on the remainder of the year helped to boost stock price +3.59% by lunch. (ORI $27.48 +3.89%)

10. House prices in capital cities +20% on the year to March. Melbourne +27.7%, Sydney +21%. Price index for established houses for the weight average of the eight capital cities +4.8% during the March quarter > expectations of 3%.

11. Elders write-downs in excess of $136.9M in forestry assets for FY 2010 (ELD $1.165 -2.51%)

12. Commonwealth property office upgrades distribution guidance +4.8%. (CPA $0.935 +0.54%)

13. M2 Communications completes acquisition of Clever Communications. Expects the deal to deliver a min additional to EBITDA of $2.3M or 2.2x.

14. Despite being the number one domestic budget carrier VBA downgrade guidance to earnings for FY10 stating weaker passenger demand the major factor contributing to the outlook. The airline’s strategic alliance with Air New Zealand adds value to their trans-Tasman traffic flow. Stock is down 6% given the guidance. QAN -0.7%. Domestic flight numbers where weaker than international for both companies so QAN may have a natural hedge on the fact they have a superior international flight paths. {VBA $0.55 -7.56% ; QAN 2.82 -0.7%}

15. TD Securities – Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge +2.9% for twelve months to April – rent, fruit & veg’s all contributing to the adjusted index reading. The jury is still out on the outcome of the RBA Board Meeting tomorrow. Financial markets have priced in the probability of a rate hike tomorrow from 25% to now 65% over the course of a week.

ASX Stock Report 30-4-10

Total Trader — Sat, 01 May 2010 16:50:18 +0000

1. Australian stocks where up +0.7% helped by strong equity markets abroad and fears of European nations’ fiscal woes subsiding. Some strong reporting from ResMed and Macquarie supported the days trade, property and financials the strongest sectors +1.94% & 0.81% respectively. Energy sector also performed well +1.14%,

ASX 200 4807.4 +0.46%

SPI Futures 4819 +0.31%

Futures 11122.0 -13pts

2. Private sector credit +0.5% during March > than expectations 0.4%. RBA results indicate Year to March private credit +2.1%. Housing credit +8.5% over the year other personal credit +0.5%, business credit 0.1%. This puts a little more certainty into markets.

3. Domestic Property Prices +4.2% in March Quarter in major cities. RP Data Rismark Hedonic Home Value index, released on Friday, said property prices in the capital cities rose by an average 12.5% in the year to March 31. Given independent directors of Westpac Office Trust have today recommended the offer from MGR to unit holders makes for interesting prospects. Jonathan Senior pointed out this morning the abundant better financially positioned office REITS to invest in.

The other thing was the smaller residential property REITS and developers, GPM is trading at 50% discount to NTA. Has Trojan Equity as major s/h who are winding up their fund, John Leaver has a big stake he is an x-broker. Our analysts values sum of parts ~45c. FKP is more liquid. Moving closer to fair value. Last valued at 73c, which was then ~43% discount to book value ($1.27).

4. MQG $50.29 +4.01% reported Net Profit $1.05B year to March 31. +20% YoY. In-line with expectations. Nicholas Moore expects operating conditions to continue into the remainder of the FY.

5. RMD up 5.83% at $7.08, hits record high of A$7.12 to be the top performer in the S&P/ASX 200 after 3Q results beat consensus expectations. EPS rose to 63 cents on revenue of US$287.7 million vs market expectations of 57 cents EPS on US$270.5 million revenue. We liked this stock on the fact that revenue streams where exposed to the US >70% EBIT FY10. Now there is even more reason to get behind the stock, expecting a break out over $7.00.

6. MAP $3.14 +0.96% bairports still reporting stronger traffic numbers and many expecting above trend traffic numbers to continue. ITO $1.125 was reporting solid traffic numbers as well. the stock’s strength representative of a recovering Canadian and Australian economy. Yesterday VBA $0.595 +0.85% noted they where in talks with Air New Zealand for a strategic trans-Tasman alliance which will add value.

7. Retailer Woolies $27.10 +0.71% have lowered forecast sales growth given cyclical impact of government stimulus payments twelve months ago. More competition in the market from Aldi and now Cosco will eat away at profits but in all honesty you will not be buying this stock long term on sales growth forecasts. You will buy this stock for solid div income, people will always go down to buy their groceries at Woolies & oil prices are also helping petrol sales +3.8%.

8. We are still very bullish NWS $19.44 +0.41%. Another pretty safe bet for consumer spending. Again US earner, superior content. Chart speaks for itself. Stock is a conviction buy.

9. Origin $16.38 +1.8% updating production and sales revenue for the March Quarter. Oil prices and currency forecasts have lifted broker forecasts.

10. The banks reporting season has been relatively consistent with market expectations thus far. Next week the RBA will meet to discuss rates, we don’t expect a change given conditions at present, unless there is some material impact on debt markets from the weekend we would anticipate no change to the cash rate. Over the weekend findings from the Henry Tax Review will be released, WBC and NAB will also report next week.

ASX Stock Report 29-4-10

Total Trader — Thu, 29 Apr 2010 14:08:52 +0000

1. Spot Gold, USD holding prices, as Euro begins to recover but late selling closer to European markets opening suggests something else.. Asian markets followed the same trend starting stronger but finishing down, Dow futures are +3pts. The Australian equities market finished -37.2pts. Australian stocks -0.5% in morning, European sovereign debt issues not settling, money flows away from our equities market and our dollar early but dollar finished stronger +0.04% to US. ANZ disappoints reporting distributions -3c than expected. Financials and materials down >1%. Macquarie Bank will report tomorrow, NAB and WBC next week.

ASX 200 4785.6 -0.77%

SPI Futures 4793.0 -0.19%

2. ANZ report cash profit for 1H FY10 A$2.3B, in line with expectations. To pay interim div of 52c/share, 3cents less than consensus expectations. Mike Smith is cautions on credit outlook, professing European sovereign debt issues have created volatile credit markets. The company is still willing to expand into Asia but expects lower global economic growth than was experienced last decade. Confident Can Meet Target Of 20% Revenues From Asia By 2012

3. Plenty of StoneBridge Group flow in BHP and TLS for retail clients.

4. Arrow Energy: reporting production no material impact considering corporate activity overshadowing the stock. Cash 3Q Total Sales A$42.2M, Down 11% QoQ, Year To Date Net Gas Sales -3.8% YoY, Y-t-Date Net Gas Output 15,288 TJ, +19% YoY, Electricity Sales -15% 533,006 MWh,

5. API confirms previously provided guidance of $24.6 million for the full year, net profit after tax for the six months to February 28, 2010 of $10.33 million, up 54.5 per cent on the prior corresponding period. Revenue grew 6.7 per cent to $1.85 billion. The company declared an interim dividend of one cent per share 5.3 per cent in Priceline health and beauty stores and comparable store sales growth of two per cent had been pleasing, given uncertain consumer confidence.

6. Coal Production reporting: Aquila Resources $10.25 +0.59% (no material effect): 3Q Year To Date Coal Sales 1.9M Tons, Eagle Down Feasibility Study To Start 2Q 2010, Cash Reserves A$342.6M At End 3Q no real deviation from expectations. Gloucester Coal $12.05 -0.41%: 3Q Coking Coal Sales Up 103% On Year again no material effect as market expected. GCL still had Peabody/MCC corporate activity outweighing performance on the stock.

7. ITO $1.125 +2.27% formally MIG Key results are: Year to date (YTD) underlying proportionately consolidated revenue and EBITDA from road assets increased 6.4% and 12.2% respectively. Weighted average traffic for the quarter ended 31 March 2010 increased by 5.0% to the prior corresponding period (pcp). YTD weighted average traffic increased 2.4% compared to pcp. Intoll owns and manages interests in two toll roads – 407 ETR, Toronto, Canada and Westlink M7, Sydney, Australia. March quarter revenue numbers where higher than market expectations reflecting improving economic conditions in Australia and Canada. Catalyst for further share price moves being the sale process for Ferriovial’s 10% stake.

8. Asciano $1.71 -0.58% port activity has indicated container volumes rebounding faster in the March quarter than previously expected: 3Q Pacific National Intermodal Haulage Up 10% On Year. Continue To Take Cautious View On Remainder Of This FY. 3Q Patrick Container Ports Container Lifts Up 1% On Year To 435,000, 3Q Pacific National Coal Haulage Up 33% On Year

9. Skilled $1.36 CEO Greg Hargrave will step down after taking responsibility for poor performance. Skilled likely to miss earnings by 15%.

10. VBA $0.59 0.85% has been voted best domestic airline in a poll by Choice a leading consumer group. Regional carrier Rex was ranked second on the strength of its old-fashioned and more personalised service, while Qantas came third overall. Budget airline Tiger took out last place criticised for flight delays and its slow check-in process. Jetstar, which was ranked second-last, also came under fire for flight delays, and for its cramped seating. VBA said yesterday they had been in talks “for several months” but the discussions had so far not resulted in an agreement. Three out of four larger broking houses have recommended a buy on the stock post the announcement. Reasons include economies of scale and cost saving produced by the alliance, stronger trans-Tasman relationship and a catalyst for further upside in the JV between V Australia and Delta airlines.

11. Atlas Iron AGO.AX fell 6.7 percent to A$2.51 after it said it was going to raise A$63.5 million with a share sale to institutions, priced at A$2.49 a share, to help fund a big increase in iron ore production and shipments.

12. Sedgman wins Narrabri Coal CHPP $50m plus contract

13. Transfield Services $4.02 +2.29%: WorleyParsons JV Awarded Loy Yang Power Contract anticipates $185M from the business. Loy Yang Power Maintenance Contract For 5 Years.

14. Biotech firm Biota Holdings -22.98% after warning that royalties on its flu drug Relenza would fall 70 percent in the March quarter.

15. Mirvac have offered 0.597:1stock or 86cents for friendly takeover of Westpac office trust. Jonathan Senior our property expert has outline best smaller player picks FKP $0.845 better liquidity, GPM $0.225 -6.25%, DVN $0.325 +1.52%. All trending upward, have institutional support (GPM Trojan, John Leaver DVN – LEI, & FKP Paradice), exposed to domestic residential housing market.

16. Following on from this morning and our discussion on gold stocks, Catalpa announced today its first gold production. The gravity and carbon recovery circuits were commissioned last week, resulting in the first production gold pour of 414 ounces of dore. The dore is an alloy of gold, silver and other metals and is expected to refine to approximately 85% pure gold. Managing Director, Bruce McFadzean said ramp-up to full production capacity of 2.8Mtpa is underway and will see Catalpa producing gold at a rate of more than 130 000 ounces per annum by July this year from Edna May and 30% Cracow.

17. Tomorrow we have House price & private credit data being released domestically, GDP and employment figures coming out of the US which will add to both the RBA & the FOMC conclusions on MP respectively. RBA meet next Tuesday. FOMC stated US rates will remain between 0-0.25% for some time to come. ResMed is a company we have touched on; who have global operations will also be reporting tomorrow. More specifically 50% of earnings from the US, & 35% from Europe so it will be interesting

ASX Stock Report 28-4-10

Total Trader — Wed, 28 Apr 2010 08:14:10 +0000

1. As the EU falls apart, international equity markets experience capital outflows as investors lose confidence in global markets. Gold $1,172.30 highest since Dec. 4th, USD & JPY started higher both perceived as safer currencies. By the end of trade today the Euro began clawing back as did other currencies, DJIA Futures +0.07%. We can hope for a better day’s trade ahead.

• ASX 200 4822.8 -1.17%

• SPI Futures 4826.0 -1.19%

2. Stonebridge flow for retail investors on the buy side for BSL and the sell side for RIO. Instos saw some good flow in gold stocks.

3. RBA assistant governor Guy Debelle argues the debt crises in Greece & Portugal has little effect on the Australian banking system, despite its effect on global sentiment and risk appetite. Our banks are all reporting results in coming weeks, starting tomorrow with ANZ. You can expect them to be better than expected, with money back in the economy and asset prices coming back, spreads on mortgage lending rates are still solid and there being a lack of competition in the industry meaning less profit sharing. The average s.v.m. rate 7.13% where they borrow in overnight cash market at a rate of 4.25%. A good margin. Our banks are perceived by the global investment community as operating on solid foundations and would be in most cases a solid buy at present.

4. ABS weighted median CPI used by RBA to track underlying inflation +3.1% on Year, +0.8% QoQ. Australia 1Q CPI +2.9% On Yr; Consensus +2.8%, 1Q CPI +0.9% On Qtr; Consensus +0.8% Australian 3-Year Futures Down 0.02 To 94.71 After CPI Data. Federal Treasure Wayne Swan commented this afternoon on the outlook for inflation remaining moderate in the near term as it was over 2009, with reference to the CPI figures. The government focus will be on building capacity and sustaining low inflation, Really what is he saying? Inflation is low – so interest rate risk fears may subside.

5. ROC $0.455 -1.09% Oil: Sales Revenue worse than expected US$49.3M In March Quarter, Down 3% From Previous Quarter; Operations Have Continued To Perform Well

6. Whitehaven Coal $5.46 -3.19%: 3Q Saleable Coal Output 853,000 Tons, Up 12% On Year, 3Q Saleable Coal Output 853,000 Tons, Up 12% On Year, 3Q Coal Sales 1.1M Tons, Up 5% On Year, Cash On Hand A$164M At March 31

7. MAP $3.09 -2.83%: Brussels Airport 1Q Revenue Up 4.5% On Year*DJ, Brussels Airport 1Q Underlying EBITDA Up 16.5% On Year, Brussels Airport 1Q EBITDA EUR37.6M, Up 19.4% On Year

8. Beach Energy $0.805 -1.83%: FY10 Output Guidance 7.4M BOE; Cut On Cooper Basin Flooding, 3Q Revenue A$102.3M, Down 24% On Quarter, 3Q Output 1.725M BOE, Down 11% On Quarter,

9. Macarthur Coal $15.90 -0.87%: Confident Of Meeting FY Sales Guidance Of 4.8M-5.0M Tons*DJ Macarthur Coal: Demand For Metallurgical Coal Strengthened During Quarter, 3Q Total Coal Sales 1.23M Metric Tons

10. David Jones $4.72 -0.63%: Quicksilver, Roxy Children’s Apparel To Be Sold

11. QBE $21.59 -1.19% Still Has Significant Allowance Of About A$810M For Remainder Of 2010, Estimated Large Risk, Catastrophe Claims For Year To Date A$470M

12. ANZ reporting tomorrow, MQG on Friday & WBC NAB next week. NWS is also reporting next Wednesday. Federal Reserve has started its first day of a two-day meeting for monetary policy making in the States. Austerity measures in the EU may still be a major concern for equity markets. We can only wait to see what will happen abroad tonight.

ASX Stock Report 23-4-10

Total Trader — Fri, 23 Apr 2010 16:38:22 +0000

1. Weak lead from Europe, early selling overdone as market gets some buying back into it throughout the middle of the trading day. Then post 1pm selling again into the later afternoon RBA Governor Glen Stevens’ commentary on economic outlook impacts on the dollar.

ASX 200 4881.5 -0.53%

Futures 200 4871 -0.16%

DJIA Index Futures 11,056 -12pts, FTSE 100 Futures 5,632.00-48pts

2. Portfolio managers heavy on the buy side with LGL $3.95 +0.77%, QBE $21.62 -0.83% & STO $13.83 -0.93%, insto support on GPM $0.225 +7.14% and good flow in NWS $19.86 -0.2%, FMG $5.01 -1.38%, ORG $16.42 -0.18%. Lihir reported production guidance today which was positive; QBE and NWS are internationally exposed plays. Something we believe will be a competitive advantage to business at present.

3. Glen Stevens has today disclosed to the market a more supportive stance on interest rates. Rates where now closer to the past 10-12yr average.

4. Inflation targeting is now on the agenda “The Board’s focus will be on doing our part to secure a durable expansion and on achieving the medium-term target for inflation,” he said. Demand for our natural resources has been putting price pressure on the market, Mr Stevens expects the terms of trade to revert back to average.

5. There has been 1.25% added to the cash rate since October ’09. Phrases like “sustaining durable expansion”, “pretty close to average” would suggest a more passive approach to monetary policy is imminent and the fact that the dollar slipped 15cents after his address at 1pm is a good indication that the market thinks so too.

6. We’re at the end of what seems to be a long cycle of extreme depressed economic sentiment. So what happens now? The argument for offshore trades is a good one we believe, as soon as growth and inflation filters into developed economies and their central banks begin to focus on contractionary monetary policy then foreign currency plays will be the go. For us especially in the US. We’ve already seen during the week the BoC become hawkish on policy stance in Canadian press interest rates suspected +50bps in June.

7. As discussed this morning NWS is the most striking US recovery play. UK mortgage approvals +2K over consensus suggesting greater demand in UK housing, Pound Sterling is trading at extraordinarily high rates, Californian house prices +23% from Feb09. LLC $8.81 -0.9% could be a good play here with 15% of earnings derived in the US and 28% in the UK.

8. We have an international focus but it does not mean that we lack the possibility to trade off opportunities down under, simply that the growth rate offshore will be marginally greater than what we experience in Aus. There is a time lag of recovery from more affected international developed nations.

9. Woodside Petroleum $46.31 -1.13%: 1Q Revenue US$1.03B, Up 43% YoY. Down 10% On 4Q09, 1Q Sales 18.7M BOE, Down 9% On Year, 1Q Sales 18.7M BOE, Down 9% On 4Q09, 1Q Output 19.2M BOE, Down 7% YoY, 1Q Output 19.2M BOE, Down 5% On 4Q09WOODSIDE Q1 PRODUCTION DOWN 5PCT ON PREV QTR AND 7PCT ON PCP,

10. Lihir +10% production guidance from 1MOz to 1.1MOz for full year guidance. 1Q Unit Total Cash Costs US$515/Oz, 1Q Aggregate Cash Costs US$118M, Down 5% On Prior Quarter, Lihir Island Expansion Continues On Schedule, Within Budget.

11. MCC $16.15 -0.19% opens doors for Peabody Due Diligence. Peabody have till May 3rd to carry out due diligence on their offer.

12. Housing Institute Australia blames skills shortages in housing sector for undersupply of residential property. HIA’s availability index -37.5% QoQ, trade prices index +1.1& in March.

13. Down under best smaller player picks FKP $0.855 better liquidity, GPM $0.225 +7.14%, DVN $0.335 +1.52%. All trending upward, have institutional support (GPM Trojan, John Leaver DVN – LEI, & FKP Paradice) and exposed to domestic residential housing market.

14. AMP NZ Office Trust: 3Q Rental Revenues +4.9%, 3Q Distributable Profit +11.9% On Year, On Track For Solid FY Performance After 3Q Result

15. Map $3.08 +0.33%: 1Q Sydney Airport Total Capital Expenditure A$30.8M, 1Q Sydney Airport Revenue A$228.6M, +12% YoY, 1Q Sydney Airport EBITDA A$187.1M, +13% YoY.

16. CSR $1.785 +5.62% Federal Court upheld appeal for them to split their sugar business –to be relisted as Sucrogen, from construction business carrying asbestos compensation liabilities. CSL $33.94 -7.27% discounted. Baxter International reports weakness on blood plasma-collection business in US. CSL is the second biggest provider of blood plasma products in the US, behind Baxter. CSL’s blood products business, CSL Behring, generates 42% of its revenue in the US, the US accounts for 37% of total earnings for CSL. CSL does not change guidance for FY.

17. In the week to follow hometrack housing survey from the UK & consumer confidence survey, US consumer confidence and mortgage apps could further add to developments on housing data below, as well as firm our views on international markets recovering. NAB business confidence survey, HIA home sales data and private sector credit could add to

ASX Stock Report 22-4-10

Total Trader — Thu, 22 Apr 2010 08:13:15 +0000

1. Falling Car Sales, skilled vacancies, leading economic indicators domestic growth greater than expected and subsequent interest rate fears consumer staples -1.32% Gold +0.08% Oil+0.35% materials –1.42%. Look to international economy’s growth rates catching up to our own suggest a theme on international recovery. NWS $1990 -0.05% the strongest, Aristocrat to US recovery – DXS $0.795 -1.24% and IOF $0.60 +0.84% property exposed to US also. Domestic Residential property market still is an option on supply shortages. DVN$ 0.33, FKP $0.855 +5.56% and GPM $0.21 +2.44% getting some institutional support, smaller players trading at discounts to Book and NTA. Or you could play it with materials Boral $5.85 -0.51%, Brickworks $13.43 -0.3%, James Hardie $7.19 -0.83% – exposed to US, FBU $6.47 -0.61% global operator.

ASX 200 4907.4 -0.95%

SPI Futures 4907.0 (-)

DJIA Index 11,045.00 -14pts

2. Wesfarmers: Retail Business Strategies On Track, Cautious On 4Q Outlook, Coles Experienced Deflation In 3Q Of Around 1%, 3Q results: Coles Sales +4.9% YoY A$6.92B Kmart Sales +4.0% At A$824M, Target Sales Steady At A$725M, Office Supplies Sales A$1.93B +7.9%, Bunnings sales +13% in 1H FY10.

3. ABS Car sales -2.7% (seasonally adjusted) in March YoY. Passenger vehicles +0.7%, QLD -5.5%. New Vehicle sales +19.2%.

4. Fletcher Building Scaling Back Production At Glasswool Insulation Plant In Melbourne, Confirms FY Guidance To Fall In Analysts’ Range Of NZ$278M To NZ$303M, FY Op Earnings For Australian Insulation Business Forecast At NZ$12M

5. Caltex $11.85 -3.42% 1Q profit $130M – STO $13.96 -1.76% long dated calls. Fundamentally on a switch from Metals to Energy.

6. NSL transitions to local management team in India; comprise of Country Manager, mines manager, Safety Quality Production Geology and Finance.

7. Coal of Africa $2.48 -0.8% AGM today – SDL $0.165 -2.94%. KRL $0.215 +7.5%

8. NewCrest $33.88 -0.26% cut annual Gold production forecast.

ASX Stock Report 21-4-10

Total Trader — Wed, 21 Apr 2010 11:19:58 +0000

1. Themes of today, investors move back into risk & stronger than expected growth down under.

ASX 200 4954.3 +0.58%

SPI Futures (-)

DJIA Index Futures 11090 +16pts

2. Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations skilled vacancies March index +18.6%. Internet vacancies +12.7% in March, -2.9% YoY. By group; Trades up 2.4%. Associates +0.8%, Professionals -1.7%. 11/18 skilled occupations +. Marketing and Advertising +7.3%. Vacancies in WA +6.1%. Vic +0.3%, NT -9.4%. YoY WA vacancies +73.9%

3. Westpac-Melbourne Institute leading index of Australian Economy indicator for likely growth three to nine months into the future 7.2% Feb, well above l-term 2.8% trend. Fastest since 1997. Risk to upside on growth profile. Coincident Index up from 0.7% six months ago to 3.6% now. Above trend for a second month in a row.

4. What does this mean? Despite interest rates being a lagging instrument, the threat of more rate rises is sincere, even as early as May. Short interest rate sensitive (to the downside) stocks and buy calls over the market after this months expiry and closer to May 4th to mitigate time decay.

5. Gold +0.35%; BDR 0.165 +3.13% YTC 0.31 +1.64%; Oil +0.66% Gas +0.73% Coal – KRL 0.20 NSL NCR 0.38 +18.75%

6. Macquarie Atlas Roads 0.985 -1.5% Traffic + 1.2% YoY. TCL $5.25 +1.55% ITO $1.15 +1.77%

7. SEK $7.70 -0.65% on track to improve 2H FY earnings with job market improvement. Major competitors FXJ $1.765 +0.86%, NWS $19.91 +2%. Consumer Discretionary’s +0.86%

8. Carsales $5.57 +3.34% ARB Corp +6.04 +1.34% AHE $2.75 +0.73% SUL $5.09 +1.8%. ABS motor Vehicle sales data released for March.

ASX Stock Report 20-4-10

Total Trader — Wed, 21 Apr 2010 11:15:50 +0000

1. Demand for risk comes filters back into our equities market today, still Gold spot +0.06%;

ASX 200 4925.8 +0.22%

SPI Futures 4929 +0.31%

2. RBA Board Meeting Minutes (rba.gov.au): “GDP growth 0.9 per cent in Q1 CY10, stronger than expected at the time of the February Statement on Monetary Policy. With some upward revisions to earlier quarters, growth in 2009 was 2.7 per cent. GDP growth supported by growth in public demand in 2009, with private spending quite subdued, but the staff forecasts envisaged a reversal in this pattern through 2010 and beyond

Developments in commodity markets meant that the increase in the terms of trade through 2010 was likely to be substantially larger than forecast in the February Statement on Monetary Policy. Increases in coal and iron ore prices, along with the developments in the LNG sector, were also contributing to a strong outlook for investment in the resources. Housing Market Conditions Remain Buoyant – capital city price growth was +1% p.a. in early 2010, and auction clearance rates had remained high in March, especially in Melbourne. Household credit moderate growth +0.7%p.m. Forecast 2010 inflation 2.5%. Consistent with the medium-term target, the level of interest rates in the economy would be expected to be close to average.”

Australian Dollar Rises To US$0.9271 from US$0.9256 After RBA minutes released immediate signal to markets of the relative strength in the domestic economy compared to trading partners.

3. Interest Rate outlook (90-day bill) expecting +0.25% rate increase. Despite interest rate climate, is there sufficient evidence to suggest retail spending will not recover into the new FY? Housing prices improving household wealth, even the RBA is expecting greater private spend. Investors coming back into the housing market indicative of this. Rising rates should put pressure on our dollar, & therefore term of trade, however power of prices rests with suppliers of commodities at present.

4. Interest rate sensitive stocks, to the downside those highly geared eg utilities generally from high levels of debt funding necessary to operate. REITs also however benefiting from rising rent prices especially around major cities, remember as interest rates rise all other asset classes will be required to rise at the same rate to be compensated for holding the risk. GPM $0.205 FKP $0.815 +3.16% WDC $12.36 +0.9% Westfield exposed to US recovery.

5. Wesfarmers $31.47 -1.22%: To Merge Chemicals, Fertilizers, Energy Divisions: Restructure Costs Not Expected To Exceed A$10M Wesfarmers reporting sales Thursday, Car sales out Thursday also.

Car retailers. SUL $5.00 ARP $5.96 +1.02% AHE $2.73 +0.74%

6. Harvey Norman $3.38 -5.32%: 9-Month like Sales +1.4% YoY, 9-Month Sales +2.2% YoY, 3Q FY10 sales flat.

7. iSOFT $0.585 +0.86% agrees on UK deals worth $8 million

8. Pike River Coal $0.80: On Track To Begin Hydro-Mining In July-September Quarter, Production For Year To July 2011 Forecast At Approx 620,000 Tonnes, 2nd Export Shipment Of Hard Coking Coal Pushed Out To July 2010

9. Macarthur Coal $16.68 +0.85%: Hasn’t Received Proposal From Xstrata, Unlikely Gloucester $12.20 +0.83%/Noble Transaction Will Proceed In Current Form

10. Nufarm $7.75 Launches $250 Million Equity Raising

11. Junior Coal Miners KRL $0.20 +2.56%, SDL $0.16 +3.23%; Junior Gold stocks YTC $0.305 +3.39% BDR $0.16 +3.23%

12. ACCC blocks NAB decision to takeover AXA AP on grounds a new generation of investment platforms would allow them to corner market. ACCC note there are too many barriers to entry for AMP to enter market.

13. AXA APH SAYS Q1 WEALTH MANAGEMENT INFLOWS IN AUST +2%. Total Group FUM Stable At A$80.7B In March Quarter, Q1 sales growth Asia +57% AXA Asia Pacific: Wealth Management Inflows Up 2% To A$1.5B In March Quarter

14. Gloucester Coal: Independent Shareholders Take No Action On Macarthur Offer

15. Western Areas $5.36 -1.52%: On Track To Meet Forrestania Nickel Project Mine Production Targets, 2,990 Tons Nickel Produced At Flying Fox In 3Q, 67,072 Tons Nickel Mined At Flying Fox In 3Q, Tim King Pit At Spotted Quoll Expected To Produce About 2,500 Tons Nickel In June Quarter

16. Lynas Corp $0.53 +3.92%: First Concentrate Feed To Kiln In Malaysia Expected Early In 3Q Of 2011, Cost Of Phase 1 Of Concentration Plant, Malaysia Materials Plant A$339M

17. Seven Network: 88% Shareholders Approve Merger With WesTrac In Proxy Vote.

ASX Stock Report 19-4-10

Total Trader — Mon, 19 Apr 2010 15:30:27 +0000

1. Contract wins & corporate activity are the only positives out of the market today as confidence spills out of US market over onto international equities market because of SEC Fraud charges to Goldman’s on mortgage related securities. USD index +0.26%, spot Gold +0.04%.

ASX 200 4915.1 -1.4%

SPI Futures 4914 (-)

2. Housing Industry Australia & RP Data research report, Median raw land price +2.2% to a record $185,222 4Q CY09 QoQ. Median land price +14%p.a. – fastest since Mid’04. New home price +2.8%, building material +1%, median prices by city/region: Sydney $275,000, Sunshine Coast $249,000, Gold Coast $241,000, Richmond Tweed $235,000 & Illawarra $197,500.

3. Flight Centre: $20.80 -2.8% Targets A$160M-A$180M Pretax Trading Profit For Year Ending June 30, Doesn’t Expect Temporary Airport Closures To Have Material Impact On Earnings, When European Airports Reopen Planes Will Operate At Full Capacity, Evidence Suggests Most Customers Want To Take European Holidays When Airports Reopen, Liaising With Airlines To Determine Holiday Options, Working To Accommodate Customers Who Were Enroute To Europe

4. QAN $2.92 -2.01% daily cost of grounding European flights $1.5M.

5. What should be factored into valuations’ growth rates when conducting business offshore are growth rates of international economies. Expected FY11 GDP growth issued by the Asian Development bank expect growth in India 8.7% (+0.5%), Indonesia 5.5%. Junior Mining stocks, despite the limitations of operating offshore – political and business practices discrepancies, move offshore to take advantage of underexplored resources.

KRL $0.195 Indonesian Coal, NSL Indian Iron Ore, In Africa SDL $0.155, CCC $0.57 +18.75%

Continental signs $US3B offtake EDF Trading over 20 yrs. First production 2H CY2011 2.4MTp.a. Thermal coal export

6. White Energy Company WEC $3.29 +21.85% bids $39.3M for takeover of South Australian Coal Ltd 500MT low grade coal reserve in SA. WEC specialists in converting low grade coal into high quality resource.

7. Excellence in Oil & Gas conference 1. Beach Energy $0.765 -1.92% – 2P reserves 66MMboe, FY 2010 production guidance 7.8M.Mboe, $118M cash no debt. Long-term growth Cooper basin resource, East African exploration acreage & Building LNG portfolio. 2.WestSide WCL $0.695 +6.92% $64.4M equity raising to fund acquisitions, CSG fields, Develop productions, and attain appraisals of further CSG tenements.

8. US rail is tracking +17% YoY March, +35% YoY for first two weeks of April. Dow Jones Transportation Index +1.7% Thursday 15th April. All indicators for distribution, logigistics and transportation stocks, those especially exposed to US.

AIO $1.80 -3.23% TOL $7.25 -2.42% ITO $1.105 -2.21% MRM $2.79 -1.06% TTI $0.034 +6.25% RIS $0.078

9. LEI $36.88 – 1.73% pulls out of Lane Cove tunnel bidding. Decmil Australia Ltd $1.79 +1.99% awarded $82Mil contract design & build 800-man accommodation village at Christmas Creek.

10. Teleco’s: aside from picking up contracts lie in a depressed market with share overhang over NBN issue. While the market overall absorbs confidence issues the Teleco’s space is already being discounted and holds prices. From the beginning of this CY daily returns:

ASX Stock Report 16-4-10

Total Trader — Fri, 16 Apr 2010 08:42:51 +0000

1. Energy stocks and resource stocks took a beating, leaving our market +0.2% for the week. Commodity & oil prices not helping hopes for another +5000point close. HFA $0.275 +10%, QTM $0.135 +17.39% MCC $16.54 +8.25% PVE 0.80 -31.33%. Info Tech +0.07% on IRESS $8.90 +1.14% speculated merger with ASX, healthcare +0.9% PRY $4.38 +2.82%, SIP -8.33%

ASX 200 4984.7 -0.34%
SPI Futures 4998.0 -0.38%

2. Macarthur engages Peabody, pushes back deadlines on other offers with GCL & Noble. Concession given to Peabody for discussions over the deal.

3. Qualified support from POSCO and ArcelorMittal has given Peabody bid legitimacy, welcomes Macurthur’s move to engage them.

4. FGE $2.92 +1.74% & CLO $0.93 +1.64% – IER not fair and not reasonable, recommending shareholders take no action on the proposal, yet execs passing on stock and options for CLO to have 31% interest to solidify relationship.

5. CoalConnect Alliance LEI $37.53 -0.32% Leighton contractors to deliver components of QR’s GAP expansion project $370M contract

6. Intol ITO $1.13 +1.35% 1Q Westlink M7 Average Daily Revenue +8.7% YoY, 407 ETR Average Daily Trips +2.2% YoY, 407 ETR Revenue +9.6% YoY

7. QBE $22.10 -0.45% to buy NAU Country Insurance Co. manages multi-peril crop insurance in U.S. for $US565M 2.6xNTA US$217M

8. QAN $2.98 +0.68% cancels flights from Volcanic Ash covering Europe.

9. Martin Kriewaldt & Cherrel Hirst retire from Board SUN $9.16 +0.11%, Gary Weiss retires as director of WDC $12.55 -0.16%.

10. ECSI $0.018+8.3% HYoHY, -$82K loss.

11. Enebba Gas ENB $0.23 +17.95% & Cougar Energy CXY $0.135 sign MOU to develop Sargon Coal Tenement in WA, 100% owned by ENB. Each to contribute $1M initially once pen is put to paper, Underground Coal Gasification project to fuel. Indicated 74MT, inferred 120MT JORC compliant resource 194MT.

ASX Stock Report 15-4-10

Total Trader — Fri, 16 Apr 2010 02:20:51 +0000

1. Consumer inflation and unemployment survey overshadowed by Chinese greater than expected double digit growth and the equities market down under pushes over the 5000point hurdle.

· ASX 200 5001.9 + 0.14%

· SPI Futures 5012 -0.1%

2. Melbourne consumer inflationary expectations +4.1% April from 3.2% March. Survey from Melbourne Institute, inflation expected to rise. Proportion of consumers expecting RBA CPI target 2-3% fell 2.7% MoM. U/E index -0.8% April, 43.8% below Feb 09 peak.

3. RIO operations review: 1Q Iron Ore production +39% YoY, 1Q results; Refined Copper 95,900 T, -8% YoY; Mined Copper 165,300 T, -16% YoY; Refined Gold 174,000 Oz +62% YoY; Mined Gold 225,000 Oz, +12% YoY; Uranium Production 2.7M Pounds, -20% YoY; US Coal Production 10.1M Tons, -53% YoY; Other Australian Coal Production 4.9M Tons, -8% YoY; Hard Coking Coal Production +1.9M Tons, +35% YoY; Alumina Production 2.21M Tons, +1% YoY; Aluminum Production 937,000 Tons, -1% YoY; Iron Ore Production 43.4M Tons, +39% YoY; Iron Ore Production 43,361 Tons, +39% YoY; Mined Gold Production +12% YoY; Mined Copper Production -16% YoY; Iron Ore Production +39% On Year Still Cautious About Short-Term Volatility; Most Operations Continued To Run At Capacity In 1Q, 2010 Capital Expenditure Expected To Be At Least $5 B; 2010 Share Of Mined Copper Production Expected 680,000 Tons; 2010 Global Iron Ore Production Guidance 234 M Metric Tons.

4. Coal and Allied Industries $98.00 -2%(Subsidiary of RIO $80.05 -0.06%) Q1 production -20% QoQ, equal to 1Q CY09. 1Q Sales 3.9MT -3.7% YoY and -27.6% QoQ, 1Q Production 4.22MT. Reasoning, low in-pit coal inventories, s-term geotechnical issues and higher rainfall.

5. MCC $15.28 -1.42% rec’d revised bid from New Hope $5.22 +1.36%. Scrip 2.7 to 1 offer, or $14.50/share conditional on cash available & capped $950M. Should shareholders elect cash alternative and the cap be reached, cash issued per share will be scaled back and scrip equivalent offered in its place. New Offer rejected by MCC board.

6. Peabody raises bid for MCC $16/share, values MCC $4.1B

7. Beadell resources $0.16 -3.03% finalises sale of Ampari Gold mine resulting vendor New Gold Inc{NGD NYSE &TSX} 19.5% stake.

8. OZL $1.265 +3.69% 1Q Gold output 41572Oz, Copper output 31,909T. Gold Outlook raised from 80-90KT to 110-120KT p.a. copper unchanged outlook.

9. BOQ $12.14 +0.75% increased net interest margins +13bp from 1H CY09. Or 0.13%. +96% HY NP $90.9M. 26c div fully franked. Retail Deposits $16.9B +9% p.a., tier 1 capital +9.2%

10. Property – ALZ $0.57 Chairman’s address @ AGM. Price growth evident in 09, expected to be moderate in ’10 with declining affordability. Operating profit -31.4% FY08 to 09, Paid almost 3x the amount of borrowing obligations from YoY gearing reduced to 25.4% from 36.2%. Despite rental income improving other income -39.76%. Market Cap $1.4B – More a REIT these days than developer with devt earnings ~15-20% of total. FY10 P/E 11.4x, 8.49% yield, 25% gearing, 28% discount to book – best value of the big caps. Temasek Holdings owns ~60% so a corporate angle here also. Target price 63c.

11. Wealth of articles in today’s FIN covering property sector growth. For sales signs up as confidence returns p45, Australia inspires confidence p46, AustSuper to add $500 into a direct property fund p49, yesterday’s FIN Rents surging +1.5% in capital cities 1Q CY10, property leading sector of economy on equities market today +1.61%.

12. GPM $0.215 +4.88% has John Leaver join the register and we are adding to its fundamental characteristics (50% discount NTA, yield 8%, PE 7x) the possibility of corporate activity

13. Retail: Discretionary’s perform again despite prices & interest rate environment. NWS $19.77 +1.8% FLT $21.04 +1.89% BBG $11.69 +0.95% PMV $7.65 +1.73% PBG $1.255 -2.33%

14. SIP $0.54 CEO Elmo De Alwis resigns

15. Tech Stocks: IRE $8.80 +1.85% keeps edging up as speculation arises ASX may move to take over the company after having been relieved of its role as market regulator.

16. Our analysts believe consolidation is always a key growth element of managing the business in the telecos space, however until NBN issues are resolved the competitiveness within the industry is not exposed.

ASX Stock Report 14-4-10

Total Trader — Thu, 15 Apr 2010 01:11:30 +0000

1. Recovering commodity prices, global demand for energy and reporting season in the US. Financial stocks+1.49%, discretionary +0.84% on consumer sentiment index & computer chip maker INTL results, and Utilities +1.3% leading the market. Financial company drivers in greater volume of fees and earnings as all asset classes move out of economic downturn, along with good variable mortgage spreads for the banks.

ASX 200 4994.7 +0.87%

SPI Futures 5005.0 +0.83%

2. Consumer sentiment index -1% MoM. Westpac-Melbourne Institute survey 116.1 from 117.3 in March. Since October last year when the RBA starting moving on rates, the index has +2.7%. average SVR +1.35%, market expects cash rate to e be at 5% in twelve months. Expected family finance next 12 months -8% sharpest fall in two years, family finance -0.6% from last year YoY. Economic conditions index next 12 months +1.3%, next 5 yrs +0.7%. Steady employment, improving business sentiment, rising home and commodity prices being key factors underlying the data.

3. Energy – Resources & Energy Minister Martin Ferguson states seismic data sets from gov have become available in an effort to promote oil & gas exploration on Australian shores. This after UN +2.56Mkm² of Australian Continental Shelf in ’08. “Our energy security will be greatly enhanced if we are successful in opening up new oil frontiers and can reduce dependency on imports” Ferguson. Crude deficit at present $16B p.a., will grow to $30B p.a. by 2015.

4. Re-iterating the International Energy Agency forecast for global Oil +2% YoY with increase 1.67Mbarrels/day. There has been a flurry of gas deals, however gas remains an alternative resources and demand for oil continues to > $80/barrel despite the effect this may have throughout the global economy from a cost-push pricing perspective.

Oil stocks: ROC $0.415 +1.22% PPP $0.295 +5.36% CTX $12.60 +0.8% OSH $5.91 +0.17%

5. MEO$0.455 +24.66% shares where +26% after informing market of partnership with Petroleo Brasileiro to drill Artemis WA offshore project. MEO to pay US$31.5mil cash and receive US$7.5M + US$41M drilling costs for first well. Petro takes 50% stake in exploration permit

6. ACCC allows Shell/PetroChina bid for CSG Arrow Energy $5.17 +1.17% acquisition.

7. Beach Energy $0.755 conditional agreement with Lakes Oil LKO $0.009 +28.57% to examine gas potential in Gippsland Basin VIC. Two phase term, possibility for Beach to receive 15% interest with expenditure of $10M first phase and 50% interest with expenditure $40M second. Beach essentially funding exploration.

8. Transfield $3.95 -0.5% HY FY10 sustainability review, NPAT +0.33%, record cash flow $130.1M, 5c div fully franked, Sales stable, Net Debt >-50%; continued contract wins globally TIMEC NSW Housing, North America Transport into Canada ~$1B.

9. Transurban $5.19 +1.37% toll revenue on Australian assets increased Q1 CY10, US revenue & traffic on Pocahantas parkway fell.

10. FGE $2.90 +12.4% target statement and IER for proposed proportional t/o by Clough $0.925 +0.54% deemed not fair and not reasonable.

11. APZ $0.515 +0.98% deal with Port of Brisbane for 1.8hc hopes to build 1,000 new homes. Initially 150 homes will be built for $11.1M & a share of revenue’s during project, options bought for the remaining 850 homes.

12. GPM $0.205 +2.5% has John Leaver join the register and we are adding to its fundamental characteristics (50% discount NTA, yield 8%, PE 7x) the possibility of corporate activity.

13. Rents surging +1.5% in capital cities 1Q CY10, may look to focus on companies who have more residential management books in their business. Depending on housing volumes and prices in rising interest rate environment. MGR

14. Elders $1.335 write down to $0 the $5.7mil investment 13.5% holding of Forest Enterprises FEA who have gone into voluntary administration.

15. NWS $19.42 +2.48% still the best quality content provider.

16. SXL $2.22 +3.74% and Aboriginal TV company Impraja has received government funding to provide to digital services.

17. IIN $2.88 -0.35% AMM $0.35 +4.48% taking profits, prices above Targets. Research see’s at present no real s-term fundamental driver in the teleco’s space until an outcome is reached on the NBN

ASX Stock Report 13-4-10

Total Trader — Tue, 13 Apr 2010 08:55:36 +0000

1. Early selling market -13.2points by 10.10am. Then again post 1pm, market lost any leads from yesterday as commodities lost value across the board.

ASX 200 4951.6 -0.66%

SPI Futures 4964.0 -0.86%

2. BHP $43.84 -1.37%; RIO $79.50 (-1.44%), Gold Spot –US$11.45/oz LGL $3.92 -1.51%; NCM $34.41 -1.49%, Oil spot –US$0.68/barrel STO $14.64 -1.88%; ORG $16.75 -1.41%

3. ABS lending finance data for February; commercial finance +5.6% – revolving credit commitments +13.7% and fixed lending commitments +2.9%, owner occupied lending -4.4%, personal finance +0.7% – fixed lending commitments +1% & revolving credit commitments +0.4%. Lease finance commitments +0.8%.

4. NAB business conditions index +6points to 13pts. Strongest since November 07, on improved employment forecasts, capacity utilisation and stronger eco growth forecasts. – WSJ

5. Energy: Coal – KRL $0.19 -2.56% Indonesian Coal resources; 1) Thermal Coal GPK project 84.82% owned. Commencing production 25KTp.m. Margin $20/T; expecting 1-2MT p.a.CY10 & +10MT p.a. within three years. 2) Mamahak Coking project inherited 30KT stockpile ready for immediate shipping, have exposed 15KT of fresh resource for mining. Initial production 30KTp.m. margin $50/T. Infrastructure capable of 1.5MTp.a. Production JORC resources 10.22MT. 3) New m’ment looking to unlock value.

6. MTE $0.305 -3.17% finding a level market after being up 40% over a week.

7. Santos signs Gas sale and Purchase agreement with Wesfarmers Energy WES $32.28 -0.28%. Five year contract for 60 Petajoules of gas, sourced from John Brookes gas field offshore WA. Commence 2H CY10

8. Energy: Uranium – EXT $7.83 -0.89%; BKY $1.52 +0.66%

9. ERA $18.52 -5.94%; -27% 1Q uranium output, expected from lower grade resource.

10. Over the past 12 months, the price of uranium has hovered between USD 55.00/lb and USD 40.00/lb, and is currently priced around USD 41.75/lb; the latest peak was seen in mid-2009 at around USD 54.00/lb.

11. The Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development paints a healthy growing demand for uranium, especially in the longer term, and the World Nuclear Association reckons that where mine supply was about 44,000 tonnes (about 20% each from Canada, Kazakhstan and Australia) in 2008, demand is likely to increase to 74,000 tonnes by 2015

12. OneSteel $3.96 -3.41% blast furnace failure leading to production stoppage.

13. Industrial Services: DOW $7.44 -2.75%; AAX $4.75 -0.84%; BLY $0.345 -2.82%; TOL $7.50 +0.4%

14. MAH $0.815 -3.55% awarded $90M rail contract, 16th March awarded $190M contract to operate Cameby Downs coal in QLD.

15. Leighton $37.85 -0.24% JV contract with Abigroup to upgrade Gateway motorway QLD. $240M contract extension. Also awarded $940M adjustment from Energy Resources to increase production at Ukhaa Khudag coal mine in Mangolia.

16. South Korean Hyundai Merchant Marine contract with Brazil and Australian iron ore shipment, translates to $315M in sales for 2010-2015. is a 15yr contract. 50:50 JV with Far East Marine Group.

17. Healthcare: SIP $0.515 (-0.96%) SHL $14.48 (+1.54%) ISF $0.58 (-1.69%) PRY $4.25 (+1.92%)

18. TLS $3.19 (+2.9%) drove up telecoms.

19. Utilities: EWC 0.50 +3.09%; APA $3.70 +1.65%; AGK 15.38 (+1.18%)

20. Retail: US based discretionary’s FXJ $1.775 (-1.39%) NWS $18.95 (-1.3%) ALL $4.55 (-1.09%) WDC $12.17 (+0.08%)

21. Retail auto sellers performing well off the back of rebounding industry. Car sales YoY March +25.2% (from last week). Super Cheap Auto $5.11 (+0.2%) Automotive Holdings $2.60 (-1.52%) ARB Corp $5.72 (+0.35%)

ASX Stock Report 12-4-10

Total Trader — Tue, 13 Apr 2010 08:47:16 +0000

1. Market was positive across all segments today which follows on from last week as we edge closer to 5000 points, +1.56% over the week. FGE$2.70 (-4.59%) after recommending to shareholders to “take no action” on the Clough Operations Pty Ltd proportional takeover, potential for 3rd party bidder over, FGE in the process of releasing a Target Statement to shareholders. NUF $7.86 (-4.96%); Tender offer for Nufarm shares by Japanese Chemical Company Sumitomo has had 81.45% acceptances. HFA $0.235 (+17.5%), COK $0.565 (+14.14%), DYE $1.30 (+13.04%), AGO$2.98 (+7.19%), MMX $2.93 (+6.55%):

ASX 200 4984.3 (+0.73%)

SPI Futures 5007.0 (+0.74%)

2. Materials and Industrials leading the market. DOW $7.65 (+4.08%); AAX $4.79 (+8.86%); TOL $7.47 (+1.22%); BLY $0.355 (+1.43%)

3. Downer speculated to be named preferred contractor for NSW Government $1.2bil electronic ticketing system for greater Sydney transport network. Through Pearl consortium Downer, US Cubic Corp (CUB) & CBA $58.40 (+0.45%). Historically NSW Government has a poor record in attempting to implement an electronic ticketing system, attempted in 2002 and still embroiled in litigations with ERG.

4. Ausenco addresses speculation of contract negotiations over project m’ment services in Australian resources, is in final stages of negotiation although nothing signed. AAX up 3% after 10.30am this morning.

5. Transurban $5.15 having due diligence conducted on failed Sydney tollroad operator Connector Motorways. A review is being launched by the ACCC.

6. Oil prices +$0.50 by midday Singapore time, $85.42/barrel crude May delivery. USD Stronger against the AUD and NZD, however still down on other major trading partners. EUR/USD +0.15%.

7. Consolidation in Resources: Xstrata interest in MacCarthur Coal $16.52 (+6.24%) has been denied by MCC. Newhope $5.49 (+3.58%) committed to participate with MCC board on merger. MCC + again today. GCL $12.11 (-0.74%), NCM $34.93 (-1.96%), LGL $3.98 (-0.25%)

8. MTE $0.315 (+3.28%) Metrocoal, $30mil QLD coal JV with Chinese coal producer still being factored into price. China National Coal group funding production terms min $4mil inflow within first two years with expectations 2.5-3.5BT of thermal coal, 100MT p.a.

9. Energy World $0.485 (+3.19%) looking to list in Hong Kong to broaden investor base.

10. GPT group $0.58 to follow on from Mirvac’s plans last week and undergo a $400mil equity raising for its Wholesale Office Fund. GPT looking to add value to its already established Sydney and Melbourne office asset. Suggests consolidation in the sector again, as MGR $1.43 (-0.35%) was rumoured to move on WOT $0.81 last week.

11. Sigma $0.52 (+10.64%) trading on a PE6.7x FY10. Healthcare getting a lot of fiscal spend focus globally. ISF $0.59 (+0.85%) have global operations and are up 17% over the month. Speculation private equity will move on consolidating SIP with iNova Pharmaceuticals – another Aussie prescription distributor. And re-list.

12. Primary Health Care $4.17 (+4.14%) share overhang from chief executive selling 10% of holding, +15% growth in EBITDA forecast, 2.3x prior distribution. However loosing market share in pathology to competition Sonic $14.26 (-1.52%) & Healthscope $4.53, hurting bottom lines from pathology’s volume leverage to margin.

13. IIN $2.86 (-0.35%) set to deliver digital TV service, partnership signed with Fetch TV. Is a DVR (digital video recorder) competing against Tivo & Foxtel IQ. It will offer free to air TV & subscription content, the combination being its competitive advantage. Content will come from Discovery Networks, National Geographic, MTV Networks, Fox International Channels, E! Entertainment Television, BBC World News, CNBC, ABC, Roadshow Entertainment, Disney Media Distribution, MGM, and Lionsgate. Subscriptions will cost under $30 a month and will be completely unmetered on iiNet.

14. Jetstar (QAN $2.96 (+3.14%) low-cost carrier) joint-venture with Air Canada links Hawaii route with Canadian carrier’s service into the country (Vancouver & Quebec) joint fare single booking. 12th interline deal, Canadian Air joins list of other partner carriers including Qantas, Etihad, Air Calin and Royal Jordanian.

15. Tiger Airways (low-cost carrier for Singapore) looking at moving a portion of flight paths from Tullamarine to Avalon airport in VIC.

ASX Stock Report 9-4-10

Total Trader — Fri, 09 Apr 2010 07:47:54 +0000

1. Strong performing resources & energy sectors lead out in front today as our market early, with the energy sector holding strung up almost 1%. All early gains where sold off throughout the day’s trade.

ASX 200 4948.1 +0.21%

SPI Futures 4970 (-)

2. New Hope Corp NHC $5.30 (-0.19%) has bid for MCC $15.55 (+8.29%) prompting further competition for the coal miner’s assets. This comes whilst Peabody has taken its revised bid to the Takeovers Panel after it was rejected by MCC. Offer prices have come from $13.00, $14.00 – Peabody. Now a scrip offer of 2.7shares in NHC for every one share in MCC, which prices the company at $3.71Bil or $14.58/share. The combined entity will have a combined equity market cap of $8bil & a cash resource of $1.5bil.

3. Gold: China’s biggest gold producer, Zijin Mining Group Co. (2899.HK), extends its offer to buy Australia’s Indophil Resources NL (IRN.AU) $1.20 (-0.83%) to May 14 from the original deadline of April 16. DJ

4. NCM $35.63 (+0.37%) to begin construction immediately on approved gold and copper deposit in NSW. Newcrest chief Ian Smith “demonstrates the strength of Newcrest organic growth pipeline” this after the company has had a bid for LGL $3.99 (+0.76%) rejected.

5. Macmahon Holdings Ltd MAH $0.82 (-3.53%) is likely to win a $90mil government contract and is unaware of any T/O moves by Leighton. LEI $38.23 (-1.55%)18.56% stake in MAH, & 901M cash reserves as at 31st December 09.

6. Industrial Services: BLY $0.35 announces May 11th AGM. Stock has rallied two days in a row, ended flat today however good volume and prices coming through VWAP>close.

7. TSE $3.94 (-0.25%) confirms 30-yr road contract worth CAD580mil.

8. LEI hold 49.66% in property developer Devine TP $0.63. DVN $0.30 (+9.09%) trading ~50% discount to book value (54c), with a PE 6x, target yield 10% and gearing comfortable at 30%. DVN project pipeline is ~A$3b vs. mkt cap $175m

9. Property: FKP $0.74 (+1.37%) Property Group TP0.93 book value ($1.27), with EPS 9.3c & PE 8x pipeline is valued ~A43.5b vs. mkt cap $848m.

GEO $0.19 Property Group GPM NTA (37c) and we have a 30c price target. Have a payout ratio of 50%, yielding 8% and PE 7x

10. Retail: no substantial flow on effect to retail figures from US. Early gains for retailers sold off. MYR $3.35 DJS $4.70 (+0.21%) JBH $20.22 (+0.35%) supporting our view that model of high volume low margin product will benefit stockholders value per share & some tech products have become staple KMD $1.94 (+0.52%) PBG $1.335 (-2.55%)

11. Retail auto sellers performing well off the back of rebounding industry. Car sales YoY March +25.2% (from earlier this week). Super Cheap Auto $5.14 (+1.18%) Automotive Holdings $2.65 (-0.38%) ARB Corp $5.65 (+2.73%)

ASX Stock Report 7-4-10

Total Trader — Wed, 07 Apr 2010 13:14:18 +0000

1. Biggest news of the day Macarthur rejects Peabody conditional revised bid, on grounds it is too inflexible. MGR looks to raise capital and fund acquisitional expansion. Surprisingly interest rate pressures seep into sentiment for the property sector despite rising prices, the property sector of the ASX200 worst performing for today -7.1 points. All other sectors finished better aside from the Energy sector which was sold off late afternoon as analysts shift focus onto demand fundamentals ahead of US Energy Information Admin report due out later this week. & after a significant rally in Oil prices over the week.

· ASX 200 4960.9 + 0.15%

· SPI Futures 4980.0 + 0.1%

2. On what is continuing to be a flurry of corporate activity it’s spilling over into the property sector. Mirvac $1.48 revealing today it will go to the market and raise equity in order to sure up balance sheets and fund acquisitional expansion. I suppose there are sceptics to the idea in such means of expansion and there will be two sides to the story. The key thing as it always is will be is the capital structure going into the investment given present circumstances on a stock specific basis and most importantly managing the return. Our analysts see short-term price stag ~10% to MGR share price post the raising with emphasis being on management to add value with a deal, TP l-term $1.55.

3. Iron Ore: AGO $2.82 (+2.17%) FMG $5.04 MGX $2.01 (+0.75%)

Pilbarra shipped 14.8MT of iron ore in March, +13.7% MoM and +13.5% YoY. We would expect the growth to taper off as offshore stock piles mount.

4. Steel: BSL $2.99 (-0.33%) OST $4.09 (+0.74%)

5. Sinosteel {formally SGX however entered into scheme of arrangement with Eldorado Gold Corp EAU. $13.58 (+0.3%)} begin full scale mining Mid-West Australian Ore project. First shipment of hematite ore is due early July. Expected production 1.5MT of hematite p.a. the commencement of production translates into additional trade for local businesses, non of which are listed, and once up and running will enable finalisation of feasibility studies on major project at Weld Range .

6. Energy: Coal – CEY $4.33 (-0.92%) NEC $1.40 (+1.08%) Gas – AOE $5.03 (-0.2%) LNG $0.525 (+0.96%) oil & gas – DLS 0.077 (-1.28%) STO $14.85 (-0.4%) Uranium – ERA $19.51 (-0.86%)

7. Macarthur MCC $14.31 (-5.23%) reject the Peabody offer $14/share on the basis of its inflexibility with other dealings, more to the point its r/t with Gloucester Coal. GCL $11.70 (+25.67%), and encouragement of a deal with Noble over GCL’s assets.

8. Westside Corp. WCL $0.71 (+27.93%) to raise $64.4mil equity funding acquisition of Anglo American AAL.LN coal seam gas acreage in QLD.

9. Property: MGR raising $500M equity institutional placement & SPP. Mirvac is positioning itself to raid some more assets and sure up balance sheets. Westpac office WTO is a suspected target.

TGP $0.81 (-1.22%) BWP $1.96 (+0.26%); CQO $0.28 (-3.45%); DXS $0.82 (-0.61%); SGP $3.95 (-1.25%); to get some real value ABP $0.395 GPM $0.185 TP 30cents; DVN $0.27 (+1.89%) TP $0.33; ALZ $0.54 (+3.85%) TP $0.63; FKP $0.735 (+1.38%) TP 0.93

10. Retail: Following on from what was discussed yesterday we are still very positive on the JBH $20.31 (-0.05%) model in the current market, and circumstances earlier today re-enforcing that fact, however JBH sold of late. MYR $3.34 (-0.6%) and DJS $4.74 (-0.21%)

KMD $1.915 (+0.26%) PBG $1.37 (1.86%) bonds redefining itself as a brand and really gaining market share, BBG 11.29 (+0.44%). HVN $3.69

11. Consumer Spend: Car sales down under reach record highs, +25.2% year to March. Car rentals adding to this as well +331%. VBA $0.72 (-0.69%) have added Hertz and Thrifty as car rental partners and will launch a new online car hire booking site. Partners on the site include already Thrifty and customers will receive velocity points from hiring attracting loyalty. Charlie Aitkin put VBA on a list of possible takeover targets in his note this morning. Something to think about.

Auto retailers: AHE $2.64 (+1.54%); A.P Eagers Ltd APE $12.55; ARP $5.54 (-0.18%) Super Cheap Auto SUL $5.15 (+3%)

12. NWS $18.77 (-0.48%): Twentieth Century Fox declines to comment over DVD release rights to rental movie stores. Blockbuster Inc. being the major deal maker and operating the majority of market share is poised to secure distribution rights for DVD rentals over the major box office hits from this most recent summer including Avatar. Deals are not finalised and Fox is in a powerful positions over negotiations, from the quality of their content.

Rupert Murdoch defends the charges for online content and expects that the online content market will tend to the practice of charging for their content. WSJ

13. Australian Industry group figures; Performances of Services index +0.1points for March, from 48.3 to 48.4. still <50point barrier separating contraction from expansion. Employment sub-index +1point indicating rate of growth of jobs decline easing. Degree of caution on the part of households saw fall in sales, new orders and deliveries for March at industry services. Accommodation, café and other consumer based sectors were particularly soft.

14. Australian Office of Financial M’ment (AOFM) sold $1.0Bil worth of July 2022 bonds with a yield of 5.75%, yet had to raise the yield to attract investment. The weighted average yield of bonds sold was 5.9642% meaning they did pay up for the issue. $2.142mil excluding transaction fees.

Direct Market Access CFDs

Total Trader — Fri, 26 Mar 2010 05:35:00 +0000

Learn about Direct Market Access CFD providers

Direct Market Access CFDs offer identical prices and liquidity to the underlying share market price for the stock. Direct Market Access CFD trading has each CFD order placed as an actual buy or sell order ticket on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) – an order which appears on the trade queue and follows typical stock trading rules.

Therefore your CFD order (unlike market makers) can influence the market and participate in the pre-opening trade (7am to 10am) and pre-closing (4pm to 4.10pm) price auction on the ASX and also receive partial fills.

Choosing Direct Market Access (DMA) over MM also depends on strategy. Direct Market Access gives you the opportunity to scalp because of the speed of the transaction and because you can see the real depth of the market – the actual buyers and sellers in the market -unlike a synthetic market provided by market makers.

With a quote-driven service the trader is simply presented with the company’s bid and offer. These are derived from the underlying cash market prices and, when dealing in normal market size, will generally be identical, with the company making its money from the commission on the transaction.

A direct market access CFD provider operates differently from a market maker. Whenever a share trader places an order to trade an Australian CFD, the CFD provider will instantaneously create the equivalent position in the underlying cash market to hedge the exposure.

ASX 200 Stock Trading Report

Total Trader — Wed, 24 Mar 2010 00:09:05 +0000

ASX 200 4874.8 (+0.92%)

SPI Futures 4899.0 (+0.93%)

1. S&P/ASX 200 +44.6 points today. Largest contributions from Financials +1.5% and materials/energy up >0.9%.

ASX 200 4874.8 (+0.92%)

SPI Futures 4899.0 (+0.93%)

Overseas Headlines:

1. Japanese CPI figures have not fallen as sharply as expected. Deflationary fears will be met with easing Monetary Policy MP below 0.1%. It is not quite clear just what sort of an impact the BOJ expects from prices in their minutes to the MP meeting, however Japan remains the text book example of how MP becomes a blunt instrument.

2. There are mixed signals over the pricing mechanism of the Yuan. Despite a lot of offshore pressure the Chinese do not seem to have a clear picture over their stance on the matter, or at least they are not publicising it. The Americans over the past week have been very vocal about the impact pegging the Yuan has on global financial markets. Within the walls, however, there is misleading indications from the Bank (People’s Bank of China), the ministry (ministry of Commerce) and state councils leading one to believe that they have not sincerely assessed the impact of pricing mechanisms on global demand for Chinese products. Reinforcing their reputation as a very internal looking, corporation influenced macroeconomic policy maker. Not to mention the wealth of empirical evidence on Exchange Rate Mechanisms (ERM) and how they have been attractive for extreme speculation, the perfect example being Soros and the British Pound. ERM over the Yuan pegged to the USD means that not only can China manage the price of exports relative to trading partners but they can mange prices they pay for imports and the value of debt held in foreign dollar terms. Debt held particularly US treasuries.

3. Chinese Steel demand expected to double by 2010. According to Iron Ore chief from RIO Sam Walsh. An important indication for Iron Ore producers. RIO and Chinalco continue to talk of pursuing projects despite Stern Hu being trialed over Iron Ore negotiations in a closed court. The event seems to have become a triviality for corporations. RIO and Chinalco confirmed today talks of a joint development for a copper and gold mine in Mongolia . Aluminium Corp of China announced it is likely to record a 500,000T surplus of Aluminium for this calendar year. Forecast to be 17.5milT in aluminium production and 17milT consumption.

4. US Gaming stocks exposed to Macau have done well overnight. Las Vegas Sands (LVS.NYSE) +7.49% MGM Mirage (MGM.NYSE) confirming what was suspected last week that hotel visits in Macau is encouraging signs for spending in casinos. CWN $8.30 is still recuperating from losses in Vegas however has a foot in Macau . Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd. (GXYE.Y) (HK:27) Wynn Macau Ltd. (HK:1128) (WYNM.Y) SJM Holdings Ltd. (HK:880) Melco International Development Ltd (MDEVF) (HK:200) Sands China Ltd. (HK:1928) are other direct investments in Macau.

Data Tomorrow:

1. Japan:

Merchandise Trades exports YoY survey 45.7 vs. prior 40.9

Merchandise Trades imports YoY survey 33.0 vs. prior 9.1

Merchandise Trades Balance survey ¥560.6bil vs. ¥prior 63.0B

2. HK:

February exports YoY survey 25.3% vs. prior 18.4%

February imports YoY survey 26.0% vs. prior 39.5%

Trade Balance February survey -32.8bil vs. prior -29.5bil

3. US:

Existing home sales February survey 5.00mil vs. prior 5.05mil

Existing home sales February MoM survey -1.1% vs. prior -7.2%

Futures Weekly Commodity Update

Eden — Mon, 22 Mar 2010 00:43:16 +0000

A sense of calm has descended on world financial markets, most noticeable stock markets where volatility on the S&P index has dropped to a two year low. During May of 2008 the S&P index reached a high of USD 1,440 which was followed by a major sell off in the months that followedThe VIX (volatility index) is a measure of fear for the unknown. During periods of market turmoil, the VIX spikes higher reflecting the increased cost of insuring (buying put options) against further losses. During bullish periods like the one we have had for several months now there is less fear and less need for buying insurance. Looking at recent history we have often seen that a VIX reading below 20%, currently 16.50%, has been followed by a major sell off shortly after.

This complacency is worth keeping in mind as we head towards the second quarter of 2010. With the economic outlook continuing to brighten there are only a few clouds on the horizon. The ongoing uncertainty about Greece’s sovereign debt problems and the potential risk of it spreading to other countries, risk about a bubble emerging in the Chinese economy and speculation about how the markets will react to the first round of Central Bank tightening when it occurs.

Against this background the major commodity markets have been trading calmly with an unchanged to higher bias. Crude Oil has been grinding higher over the past couple of weeks, reaching USD 83 which ahead of the important USD 85 level has been difficult to breach. OPEC decided to stick to their agreed production cuts and expressed satisfaction about current levels and also indicated that demand from OECD had begun to improve albeit at a slow pace.

Short term momentum can potentially carry prices higher but that will increase the risk of the market running ahead of itself and a sell off could be the result. The speculative long positions as measured by number of open futures contracts on NYMEX has once again moved back above 110,000 lots after reaching a low of 42,000 lots during the February sell off. In early January, when the winter rally was at its peak, the speculative long position reached a record 135,000 lots which was subsequently followed by a USD 15 sell off in prices.

Technically a break above the recent high will target USD 85.60 with a potential extension to USD 90 which is 50% retracement of the 2008 sell off from USD 147 to USD 33. Support can be found at USD 79 and USD 77.50.

The price of natural gas continues to fall out of bed reaching a five month low at USD 4 after having fallen by a third since the peak of the winter. The slower than expected draw of inventories this past few weeks has left the surplus 4.7 percent higher than the five year average. The market is facing weak fundamentals with increased production due to higher rig count and better efficiency. Companies are finding cheaper ways to produce and new areas to produce in.

Forecast for milder than normal weather in the coming weeks indicates that the U.S. will end the winter with plentiful stocks and the rebuilding of stockpiles will begin from a higher level than normal. The front month of April natural gas on NYMEX is near term primarily only supported by a much oversold RSI which indicates a bounce is imminent. How quickly that bounce will be met by new selling is currently the big question with major resistance now at USD 4.60.

Gold has spent the past few weeks consolidating above USD 1,100 but at the same time has failed to make any attempt on the recent highs at USD 1,145. The speculative long position on COMEX has begun to climb again reaching 21 million ounces with the December 2009 record of 26 million getting closer. We continue to watch the dollar for clues about the next move and are looking for the above mentioned range to hold.

Moody’s investor service this week said that the U.S. and the U.K. have moved closer to losing their AAA credit ratings. Should this materialize the demand for hard assets such as gold will continue as concerns about the indebtedness of most of the western world will lend support.

Platinum has seen a strong rally over the past three weeks reaching USD 1,643 on Wednesday. This is only a whisker away from the January high of 1,657 which was reached during the frenzy that followed the successful launch of the platinum ETF in London. The move has been primarily investor driven with physical traders balking at the prospect of having to pay above USD 1,600 which is now support followed by USD 1,555.

Most of the drama this past week unfolded in the world of sugar trading with the price at one stage almost going into free fall. Sugar has now dropped 30% in 2010 almost fulfilling one of our ten outrageous claims for 2010. April Sugar on ICE NYBOT at one stage fell to a 7 months low below USD 18 before buying emerged.

Sugar has been falling on revised production estimates from Brazil and India, the world’s largest producers. Fundamentals however still point towards tightness as supplies continues to be outpaced by demand and global stockpiles are heading towards a 20 year low. The CFTC data Friday evening will be watched closely in order to gauge how much the speculative long position has been reduced. Look for support on the May Sugar #11 at USD 17.55 with resistance at USD 20.50 needed to be cleared before a resumption of the rally can begin.

Are You Trading Forex Online For Income Or Wealth?

Total Trader — Mon, 22 Mar 2010 00:35:19 +0000

Many people see trading forex online as a way to make money without having much idea of what they want to do that for. Of course money is useful, but with other types of investment people are usually clear in their minds about what they are looking for in terms of a return: income or wealth building. But forex traders do not always think about this.

It is important. Even though you can make money with currency trading without having a clear aim in view, the ideal strategies and trading plan will be different depending on your aims for your investment. Something that a wealth builder considers to be a successful strategy could cause an income seeker to consider that he is failing at times. So let’s look at the differences and how to handle them in your online trading strategies.

If you are seeking profits for income, then your aim will be to live on the profits of your currency trading account. You may only have a small fund now but you will probably be hoping that in a few years you can give up your day job and pay all of the bills from your forex profits.

On the other hand, somebody who is building for wealth will not plan to take an income out of his profits. He will leave them in the account to grow. He may have the aim of building a retirement fund or some other plan where he will eventually use the money, but this is a long term goal and anything taken from the account in the meantime will be lump sums for a particular purchase rather than money to live on.

So someone who is trading for income has to make a certain amount of profit per month, or at least a certain average over a few months. You’d need your income to be reasonably stable and above a certain level, otherwise you risk not being able to pay the bills.

You would need some backup in the form of savings to cover you in the case of drawdown. You would also need extremely good money management and discipline to stick to your system in difficult times. Somebody who depends on trading forex online for their living expenses is under a lot more pressure and mindset will be crucial.

Traders who are building for wealth tend to trade less often because they do not feel this same pressure. Ironically, this can mean that they wait for clearer signals and make more consistent profits than the income trader. They do not mind if their money is tied up in a trade for weeks or even months. They do not need the profits right now.

Wealth builders are also able to accept a bigger drawdown. They take a longer term view and know that they will regain the losses and then some before they ever need to cash in. This means that, other things being equal, they can afford to take a bigger position with the associated bigger risk.

The bottom line is that if you are trading for income you should be looking for a system with low drawdown and your trading plan should be set for low risk. A system that provides frequent signals for small trades will probably suit you better than a system that waits for major trends and swings. If you have clear aims for your trading and understand the implications as set out in this article, you will put yourself in a good position to make profits from trading forex online.

Share Trading Tips – CFDs

Total Trader — Mon, 22 Mar 2010 00:31:29 +0000

TRADE THE FACTS – the same rules apply to CFDs as they do to share trading – In essence, they’re both about getting the direction of the instrument correct. Trading on rumours is a classic investor trait, which can often lead to losses as the event never materialises and the share price falls back.

DIVERSIFICATION -overexposure in one particular asset class can quickly lead to losses (and gains). Diversifying your risk is well regarded amongst the most successful investors as the best way to reduce risk. Reducing risk can come in a variety of guises from investing in different sectors, taking short as well as long positions – creating a market neutral portfolio and trading across different markets. The most popular way of diversifying is by taking a position in an index, as opposed to the individual constituents. This way the impact of a large movement in a particular share, or even sector, will have less of an impact. Although you should always place a stop on your positions, it is particularly prudent with more exposed portfolios.

DO YOUR RESEARCH-most CFD trading firms provide a range of research resources including charting, news and company information to keep you informed and help you make informed investment decisions. Keep yourself informed and up to date by making the most of the research centre.

DON’T OVER TRADE – every investor has their own style of trading and you must decide what works for you. Just because you have the ability to trade frequently, doesn’t mean you have to! With competitive commissions and a high liquidity, the FX market is a classic example of where there can be literally dozens of trading opportunities throughout the day. You don’t have to trade every one of them to have a successful day.

CUTTING LOSSES - you will have losing trades. Decide on the amount you are willing to lose before you place the trade and stick to it. If you haven’t got the self-discipline to trade out of a losing position, place a stop on the trading platform and let the system do the hard work for you. The most successful traders are those who are very regimental in their use of stops. Quite simply, they rarely lose more money than they were initially prepared to lose. There are plenty of more opportunities, as long as you have retained the capital to take advantage of them!

UNDERSTANDING YOUR MARKET – most CFD firms provide access to a range of global financial markets for you to trade. This wide selection is not an invitation to trade every market possible – it’s to provide a choice. As well as fully understanding the market and the news and data which impact its movements, make sure you fully understand how Barclays Stockbrokers offers the instruments and under what terms. Trade what you know.

CREATE TRADING TARGETS -every trade should be entered into with one clear exit target if the trade is profitable and another for a losing trade. Limit and Stop orders are crucial to helping you achieve this. Don’t let a short-term trade become a long-term investment by not placing a stop. Moving your stop loss closer to the market price as your position becomes profitable allows greater flexibility in setting targets. You don’t have to call the very top or bottom of the market to regularly make money.

DON’T BE EMOTIONAL – CFDs are a very exciting way of trading, but don’t let emotion take over. The market is never wrong – and don’t try to prove otherwise. Sometimes the greatest discipline is to avoid the trade altogether. Like any good dealmaker – if the price isn’t right, walk away. Plan your trade and trade your plan.

MANAGING YOUR MONEY – thrilling, exhilarating, gripping…. but these emotions will become few and far between without a sound, business-like approach to your CFD trading. Before you even start – only risk what you can afford to lose. Once you have established what proportion of your investment funds should be apportioned to CFDs you need to further break down your collateral into how much you are willing to lose on each individual trade. Then stick to this!

Basics For Every Forex Trading Beginner

Total Trader — Fri, 19 Mar 2010 00:10:10 +0000

There is a lot of information out there for Forex currency trading beginner. If you have decided that your ultimate goal is to become an expert foreign exchange trader, you should take a look at some must-have information. The first thing that should concern you is to find out what exactly Forex is all about.

The Forex market is one of the biggest financial investment markets in the world. Many think that the stock market is huge, but it can not quite measure up the size of the Forex market. Even if we add the futures market to the stock market, the Forex market would still have a bigger amount of money being traded every day.

In the past, only people with large capital are allowed to trade in the Forex market. Thanks to the presence of online trading companies, average investors can also have their share in this exciting field today. That being said, you still need to be able to afford the risk of financial loss.

When doing Forex Trading, people are actually buying and selling different currencies in the world. You buy one currency while sell another. As such, currency trading always involves pairs, and quotes of currencies also come in one currency against another. The major players include the U.S. dollar and the Canadian dollar (USD/CAD), the Euro and the U.S. dollar (EUR/USD), the U.S. dollar and the yen (USD/JPY) and the Australian dollar and the U.S. dollar (AUD/USD).

There are many advantages to trading in the Forex market. The transactions are fast because everything is electronic. You also are assured that there are often people who would want to trade with you. This is simply because there are so many people who are trading everyday and every hour of the day. You can buy and sell at anytime whenever you want to.

One other attractive aspect of currency trading is leverage. Your leverage capabilities are simply huge with a nearly unbelievable ratio of 50:1. With very minimal initial cash you can already manage a large amount of currency. This is probably the main reason why the market is quite attractive for those who want to increase their earnings impressively.

However, you should expect to get rich instantly in this market. People can lose too in currency trading. Those who do are often those who act impulsively with the hopes of getting rich instantaneously. If you do not take the time to learn the inner wheels of Forex trading and the technical aspects of leveraging, then you could lose everything you have put into currency trading.

As a Forex currency trading beginner, the best way to make sure that you have a rewarding and fulfilling experience with currency trading is to prepare yourself before diving into actual trading. If you are a small-time online investor, you can pick an online company that can help you learn. Many of them will allow you to first practice trading with imaginary currencies without any substantial cost or loss to you. Position yourself as a beginner and learn from the seasoned player, you will have a good chance of becoming an expert in this field.

Source: Jane MacRae

What’s all this CFD HYPE : CFDs Explained

Total Trader — Thu, 18 Mar 2010 23:54:07 +0000

Contracts for Difference are contracts between a trader and a CFD provider, who will at the close of the contract, exchange the difference between the opening price and the closing price of the underlying index, share, commodity, per the amount of specified CFD contracts.

A CFD is very different from the traditional trading techniques as it is not a purchase of the nominated investment, but trading on its speculated price movement. The main idea of CFDs is the power to be in a position to trade higher volumes than standard trading while using less initial capital.

The buyer of the contracts is needed to pay commission to enter the contract, and fixed interest on the remaining cost of the borrowed amount, till they decide to finish the contract, at which time they are paid the price difference. The purchaser may choose on either side – buy ) or sell.

Advantages of Contracts For Difference vs standard share buying

The key difference between conventional share buying and CFD purchasing is that purchasing a CFD is done on leverage ( generally between five pc to thirty five percent for actively traded stocks ), both shares and CFDs participate in all company actions, both purchasers receive dividends but only the purchaser of the share is able to vote and receive the franking credits.

With CFDs one isn’t entitled to these rights, which will enable CFD sellers to sell with ease. This makes CFDs a good trading product. The leverage and capability to short sell gives power and flexibility.

Unlike futures, CFDs don’t have an expiry date, so one can cling to them for as long as they desire. CFDs open up a completely new trading world, with the ability to trade shares, indices and commodities. CFD trading is the flexible new way to trade.

If you don’t have the cash needed to trade shares immediately trading CFDs can offer you the exposure needed to make a profit from tiny percentage moves on the base share price . The leverage level offered by the CFD provider magnifies the underlying movement of the stock. Most providers set differing leverage levels and you’ll find the best level that suits you trading style.

If you have ever traded, you know how vital it is to use stop losses for capital preservation, particularly when using a leveraged product.

CFDs let you cut your losses quickly and leave your profits to run. This ability to quickly exit at the prevailing market price allows for greater risk control.

CFD reflects the price of the underlying equity. Therefore , you will always know what the market price is of your shares and know what you can sell out at.

Placing automated Stop Loss orders can exit you out of ideas that go against you while you are busy in your everyday activities.

17-3-10 ASX Stock Report

Total Trader — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 00:28:20 +0000

ASX 200 4853.2 (+1.17%)

SPI Futures 4854.0 (+1.04%)

1. Commodity prices remained strong for the Asian trading day, crude futures still up. Our market was up 56 points so a good result all up. Best performing sectors where Energy up 2.34% and Info Tech +3.07%. Carsales CRZ $3.04 (+13.87%) who we had come in last week performed well.

ASX 200 4853.2 (+1.17%)

SPI Futures 4854.0 (+1.04%)

2. NSL & KRL $0.185 (+8.82%) tipped by AFR with major potential for investment of the domestic junior mining companies.

3. Industrials; FGE $2.65 (+5.58%); AIO $1.92 (+2.95%); BLY $0.32 (+1.59%); DOW $7.60 (+1.6%); DCG $1.60 (+0.31%); we are still positive the sector which is highly correlated with resource sector demand.

4. Corporate Express CXP $5.71 (+24.13%) has received an offer for the entire business from US company Staples Inc. The cash offer is for $5.60 per share for ordinary equity holders and a 12.5cent dividend which was announced March 2nd. This values equity for CXP at $1bil. The CXP board has unanimously recommended the offer to shareholders.

5. AWB $0.935 (-11.37%) has downgraded earnings for the full year after factoring in a tough grain marketing environment. Profit has been downgraded for FY10 to $85mil-$110mil, down from $115mil-$140mil.

6. Property; we all know the city of Melbourne is the pick of Australian property growth markets. Stock to keep investing in off the back of the residential property market buoyancy FKP $0.76 (+0.66%); CWP $2.52 (+0.8%); DVN $0.285 (+1.79%)

7. Retail; DJS $5.13 (+1.18%) off the back of good reporting for 1h FY10 results, MYR $3.53 (+0.57%) still has inherent leverage to regional expansion with their competitive advantage in attracting common consumers in times of limited disposable income could prove beneficial; PBG $1.32 (+3.13%); HVN $3.74 (-0.8%)

8. Teleco’s; TLS $3.13 (+0.64%); IIN $2.45; BGL $0.15 (+3.45%)

9. TLS there is still opposition between the senate and the Government over the legislation to split our country’s largest telecommunications provider with no real substance in identifying an outcome. Until that happens we would suggest there being a trading opportunity in the stock. The bill that was proposed by the government has had an implementation study written up over it, which is still yet to be released either to the public or to the senate. Until this study is reviewed the bill may be opposed in the senate. The proposition of creating a National Broadband Network will have significant implication on the infrastructure owned by TLS, however if it is overturned in the senate this could prove TLS be more valuable.

Overseas Headlines:

1. Interest rates in the US will remain at very low levels for some time to come according to the Federal Reserve Bank. The reduced participation rate, slowing capacity utilisation will discourage investment in the country and it is most likely that this will impact on their dollar as we saw this morning. A similar situation will transpire in the Euro Zone. For equity markets and the cost of debt this may be encouraging signs, but just how long the US can sustain their economy without changing rates is the question. Inevitably one would think that inflation would become a key concern and that rates would have to tend to more realistic levels in the mid to long-term.

2. Crude Oil prices rose this morning in anticipation of an outcome on supply ambitions post OPEC ministers meeting today in Vienna . With inventories rising it may be expected that OPEC who distribute 40% of the world’s oil will decide to continue cutting their output of barrels as it has since 2008.

3. Thai citizens are displaying some very unique rituals to overturn their existing government, creating political unrest.

Data Tomorrow:

1. HK:

U/E survey 4.8% vs. prior 4.9%

2. Japan:

Interest Rates on hold

3. UK

Major banks mortgage approvals February survey 54K vs. prior 49K

Public sector borrowing February survey 14bil vs. prior 4.3bil

Money supply MoM February survey 0.7% vs. prior 0.4%

Money Supply YoY February survey 4.3% vs. prior 4.9%

4. EU:

Italy trade balance January survey -€1650 vs. prior -€123.0mil

Netherlands U/E February survey 5.7% vs. prior 5.6%

5. US:

CPI MoM February survey 0.1% vs. prior 0.2%

CPI YoY February survey 2.3% vs. prior 2.6%

Jobless Claims March 14 survey 455K vs. prior 462K

Continuing claims March 7 survey 4522K vs. prior 4558K

Current Account (exports less imports) Balance 4Q survey $US119.3bil vs. prior $US108.0bil

Forex Trading and the Economic Calendar

Total Trader — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 00:16:49 +0000

Trading foreign currencies necessarily requires certain study disciplines. These may include, but are not limited to, studying the trend and average true range, studying the support and resistance levels, studying trading volume etc.

Of all of the various studies that the trader will make on a daily basis, one of the most important, and yet often overlooked, areas of study is that of the daily economic calendar.

The purpose of this area of study is to understand which fiscal releases are scheduled and what, if any, impact these releases will have upon our proposed or actual trades.

To assist us with this study we need to understand that it is much of what is contained in these releases that actually drives the forex market – interest rate changes, employment/unemployment figures , retail price index, GDP, balance of payments, inflation etc.

Then we need to understand that as each piece of fundamental information is released the market participants will react to that new information. This will often cause the market prices to become very volatile.

Where many traders make a mistake with trying to understand the information to be released, is that they look too closely at the information itself.

A much more effective strategy is in trying to gauge is how the market participants will react to this new information. This is known as market sentiment.

All good economic calendars will give not only the time and nature of the release, but also the previous figures (where appropriate) and an indication of what figures the market is in general expecting this time.

The type of calendar mentioned above also has a facility to allow the study of specific commentary for each of the releases, which can be particularly helpful in trying to assess how strongly the market may be impacted by the release, and a simple star rating to signal the expected significance of each release.

Some of the economic releases may affect just one currency pair, whereas some of the releases will affect many pairs, and it is crucial for the trader to understand the inter-relationship, or lack thereof, between the different currency pairs.

If you are short term trading then the daily economic releases will undoubtedly impact your trading more than would be the case if you were position trading, but even position traders should remain aware of what is due to impact the market.

In short, whatever your daily trading routine may be, make sure that it includes an in depth study of a reliable economic calendar.

Day Trading Profit Secrets – CFDs Contracts For Difference

Total Trader — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 00:09:01 +0000

In the category of derivatives i.e. A trading instrument which is derived from a fundamental asset, a stock or an index, is the CFD. CFD stands for “Contract For difference.” This is a regular growing sector in the trading world and perfectly suited to day trading.

The benefit is that a CFD is a leveraged method of trading stocks and many indexes. They are also of benefit because you can gain control over individual stocks without having to buy the physical stock.

You can buy (go long) i.e. you expect the stock price to go up. You can also sell (go short) i.e. you expect the stock to go down in price. Going short is something that stock traders are not usually able to do, and therefore they are left to watch the downturns in the market without being able to benefit. Short selling is one of the principal attractions of CFD’s

When a market, short selling may be stopped in order to prevent the severe fall in prices.

Like futures, options and Forex the leveraged nature of CFD’s allow you to hold a much larger position than would be possible if purchasing physical stocks. e.g. if you had $100,000 to spend you could buy that much worth of a blue chip stop or $2,000,000 of the same stock as a CFD. Assuming the CFD was offered at 5%. This varies according to the viability of the company. Some CFD’s will be offered at 20% or up to 50%, the latter being perceived as more speculative

If the market where to rise 10% you would make $10,000 from your physical shares, but you would make $200,000 from your CFD’s. You could have also bought just $5000 worth of CFD’s, which would have produced the same profit as the $100,000 of physical stock.

However if the market were to drop 10% then your $100,000 worth of stock is now $90,000. You could sell and take a loss or as most investors do, they lick their wounds and wait and hope for the market to return to higher levels.

Your $2,000,000 of CFD’s have now realised a loss of $200,000. And your broker will want that margin paid anytime as long as it is now. You have ceased to be buddies. So you have invested $100,000 and have a $200,000 loss.

Your $5000 CFD trade has now lost $10,000 i.e. 10% of 100,000! You are down $5000 beyond your original investment. Again this margin must be paid immediately.

There is a way to limit your loss with a leveraged instrument. By using a stop loss you could place an order to exit should the market move 2% against you (this is an example and stops have to be carefully considered) In the first instance the $2,000,000 trade would be down $40,000. So you risk $40,000 to make $200,000. Is that acceptable?

In the second instance your $100,000 CFD trade would be down $2000. You risk $2000 for a $5000 reward. Can you live with that?

Some brokers will allow a stop loss on a physical stock trade. If you lose $2000, by being stopped out but have access to the remaining $98,000 to use again, some would argue that this is a smarter use of your investment capital than waiting for who knows how long for the market to return.

16-3-10 ASX200 Stock Report

Total Trader — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 06:35:54 +0000

1. Domestic equities market was again relatively flat today, the ASX200 finishing up 13.1 points. Largest contributions where from the teleco’s lead by TLS which ended up 2.3% closing at $3.11 and looks to be in a good position to be trading off; remembering the share price will be sensitive to government intervention on the NBN split up of infrastructure assets.

ASX200 4797 (+0.27%)
SPI 4804 (+0.27%)

2. Minutes to the RBA meeting from Tuesday 2nd March, justification for their 0.25bp rate rise:

International economic conditions remain uncertain. The US reported mixed results; EU remains the weakest of all. Japanese reported relative strong GDP growth, India slightly negative reflecting declining production and China reporting little but evidence of strong property price growth and greater bank lending.

Global public debt levels remain an issue especially considering the widening of fiscal deficits.
Domestic economic conditions where faintly better than previously. GDP for Dec09 quarter was expected to be 0.75 – 1%, contributed to by primarily the public sector and household spending.
Improved business sentiment, improvements in labour market figures where on the upside
Business credit growth and retail trade improved over January.
The RBA noted Melbourne as the stronger city from the buoyant domestic housing market.
Building approvals notably higher from the year previous however loan approvals retracted as expected post MP tightening
CPI figures where not released, private sector wage growth remained low leading the RBA to suggest underlying inflation will fall further in the short term to 2.5%.
Sovereign debt issues are not feared by their magnitude but from the possibility of a flow on effect. Greek and German gov. bond spreads had increased, while other major developed nations bond spreads including our own stayed relatively unchanged.
The RBA admits that if the sovereign debt problems where not resolved this could have implications for our domestic economy.
Company profits for the 1H FY10 on the aggregate where vastly stronger than the year previous.

3. SEV $8.00 (+0.38%) in trading halt post Federal Court ruling post release of the IER for merger with industrial equipment business owned by Kerry Stokes. NWS $18.16 (+0.83%) is still our strongest content distributor.

4. MOL $0.895 (+1.7%) after Chinese Government approval for $US200mil investment in the company by Hanlong Mining, final approval rec’d today.

5. LNG $0.525 (+2.94%); AOE $5.23 (-0.38%) have signed a limited obligation extension to the terms of the agreement to buy LNG’s Gladstone project. The provisions for the agreement have been extended until June 30th. AOE still developing on an outcome from takeover offer from Shell/PetroChina bid.

6. RIO $75.50 (+0.16%) and Chinalco are entering into a joint-venture to manage political uncertainty and tap into west African country Guinea’s Iron Ore. The Simandou field is set to rival the globe in terms of size and quality of iron ore, comparable to WA Pilbarra mine or Carajas in Brazil . Chinalco has kept the door open for further co-operation between the companies both domestically and abroad.

7. RIO annual report for 2009, experienced difficult period in comparison to the year previous but the company is optimistic on prices going forward. Major highlights:

Underlying earnings down 38% to US$6.3bil
Net debt reduced by US$20bil to $US18.9bil
Cash flow from operations down 33% to US$13.8bil
Capex US$5.4bil

8. Property market; ALZ $0.515 (-0.96%); SDG $0.80 (+1.91%); DVN $0.28 (+7.69%); CDI $0.53 (-1.85%)

9. Engineering; BLY $0.315 (-1.56%) nature of business may mean that reporting season for them is not in line with their most productive periods for earnings over the year. They are forced to report in February despite a lot of their operations being offshore, especially in the Americas, making their reporting appear conservative and for their quieter months of Jan and Feb. BLY has begun readying rigs and hired more than 1000 employees. The stock will be included in the S&P/ASX 100 from March 19th.

10. UGL $15.02 (+4.23%) we see as overpriced but still an option in the sector with upgrades to industrial services forecasts, FGE $2.51 (+10.09%); DOW $7.48 (+0.13%) & AAX $3.99 (+1.27%) are good plays in the engineering and industrials space.

11. IIN $2.45 (+3.38%) investor presentation 1H FY10 results, focus on low price high bandwidth ISP, differentiating products.

Revenue $228mil (+11%)
Underlying NPAT $14.8mil (+30%)
Underlying EBITDA $37.4mil (+20%)
Underlying ROE 14% (+3%)

12. Australian Central credit union recorded $6.3mil profit – 55% increase in HY FY10 profit. 120% increase in retail deposits and 107% rise in assets under management.

Overseas Headlines:

1. The beginning of the global financial market descent was marked by the fall of IB Lehman Brothers. Could they also have something to do with the resurrection of global financial markets? The company has announced today that it has come out of receivership.

2. Fears of tightening policy in China entered the commodities market overnight with the majority of traders factoring into prices the effect this will have on domestic demand.

3. European Union officials have confirmed that a mechanism will be put in place to help the Greek government avoid default on debt. They did not confirm how much money would need to be pooled nor who would be contributing and to what extent they would do so, however after meeting yesterday they where protective of their vested interest in the sovereign debt within the region. Greece has committed to cutting their deficit by 4% to bring it below 4% by the end of 2012.

Data Tomorrow:

1. Canada:

Wholesale Sales month on Jan survey 0.5% vs. prior 0.7%

2. Japan:

BOJ Target Rate (MP) 0.10%

3. UK:

Jobless Claims change February survey 6K vs. prior 23.5K

Average weekly earnings 3months to January (YoY) survey 1.7% vs. prior 0.8%

U/E rate 3months to January survey 7.9% vs. prior 7.8%

4. US:

Producer Price Index February survey -0.2% vs. prior 1.4%

PPO exports Food and Energy survey 0.1% vs. prior 0.3%