A Conservative Councillor from Dover who earlier this year was condemned for publishing racist jokes on the internet has re-published an article suggesting Apartheid in South Africa should have been extended.

Councillor Roger Walkden copied onto the DoverForum website a story supposedly written by a Nigerian saying that prosperity evident in South Africa today is attributable to “the white man” and asks “why were the Nelson Mandelas of this world complaining?”

Liberal Democrats have called on the Conservative Party to expel Councillor Walkden.

Antony Hook, Chair of Dover & Deal Liberal Democrats, said,

“The Apartheid regime tortured and murder its opponents and violently segregated people on racial lines. The idea that it might be excused on economic grounds or any other basis is outrageous.

“Africa’s future is not between white rule and black rule but between democracy and dictatorship. To say that some dictatorships are less bad than others because of their racial composition is dangerously close to the politics of Nick Griffin and the BNP.

“David Cameron must expel Roger Walkden from the Conservative Party. Not doing so would effectively condone his pro-racist views. Liberal Democrats will make sure that every voter in our area knows that local Conservatives are soft on people who promote violent racism.”

Piers Morgan: Why didn’t you, as a former chancellor,
smell a rat before the system collapsed?
Gordon Brown: Because I didn’t know that the AAA-rated subprime
mortgage assets being sold to us and the rest
of Europe from America were valueless.
And nor should I have been expected to know.

My answer to this is he should have been expected to know as he was the bloody chancellor of the exchequer for 7 years, it was his job to bloody know. If Labour can’t replace him with some one who can at least empathise with the great British public then roll on Dave.

You may find the opening contains an electoral statistic which sounds rather familiar. I wonder if this post will make it to national TV next…

And when I saw TV coverage of the Commons being told by Speaker Bercow that Sir Ian Kennedy, who is to chair the new Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority, is to receive an annual salary of at least £100,000, I fretted that my colleagues’ jeering response might not strike the right note with the watching electorate.

Which just goes to show how misleading TV coverage of the chamber can be. This afternoon I spoke with a colleague who had been present. He was utterly bemused and frustrated by media reports of the response, described by at least one journalist as “a derisive groan”. It was nothing of the sort, said my friend. Rather, the Speaker’s announcement was met with genuine hilarity and amusement, as if months of pent-up anger, fear and stress found voice in an odd kid of catharsis.

There was no jeering, no contempt, just a straightforward acknowledgement of the entertaining irony of Sir Ian being paid significantly more than an MP’s basic salary. But MPs’ reaction just had to be derisive in order to fit in with the media’s current narrative. A genuinely good-natured and humorous countenance doesn’t make good copy.

But I’m glad I wasn’t there to share in the joke.

On voting intention, the numbers are:

Comparisons are with the YouGov poll of earlier this week; the UK Polling Report Swing Calculator computes these numbers into a Conservative majority in the Commons of 92.

YouGov polled 1,021 people yesterday and today - once it was clear that David Cameron would not be hold a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty.

Jonathan Isaby

CON 41%(nc)
LAB 27%(-1)
LD 17%(+1)

And 73% want the troops out of Afghanistan

A new 1,021 sample YouGov poll for Channel 4 where the fieldwork took place yesterday and today has a slightly increased Tory lead the result of Labour slipping a notch to 27% and the Lib Dems increasing by one point.

The total for “others” is at 16% but we do not know what the breakdown of that figure is. Even the detailed data released this evening does not specify what UKIP and the BNP, in particular, were recording. So all within the margin of error but from Labour perspective the trend is in the wrong direction.

The firm’s online polling panel filled in their questionnaires when the political news was dominated by the Tory change on the Lisbon referendum, the charges that they had broken a “cast iron guarantee”, and of course the tragic news from Afghanistan of the five killings by a policemen within a secure compound.

So the first conclusion is that the Tories don’t seem to have been damaged by the abandonment of the Lisbon treaty pledge in spite of fierce criticism being reported both from within their ranks and outside - perhaps reinforcing the point that very few voters regard Europe and EU-related issues as central to their view of the coming election.

The big news from Channel 4’s point of view is the response to the Afghanistan question. A total of 35% said all troops should be brought home immediately, 38% wanted withdrawal in “the next year or so”, and just 20% saying that they should continue there as long as the Afghan government wants them there.

Amongst the 55+ age group 77% wanted withdrawal either now or within the next year or so. There wasn’t that much of a split between party supporters on the question.

Normally YouGov polls have a sample of about 2,000. This latest survey is very much akin to the tracker polls carried out during the party conferences.

Update: Rounding and the “Others” total The figure for others was taken from the detailed data. The reason this does not add up to 100% is because of rounding.

Mike Smithson

1. The Treaty of Lisbon lives from December 1st after President Klaus bows to domestic an international pressure and ratifies.
2. The Tory MP and grassroots activists are in disarray over a coherrent European policy.

My God!

1. If Cameron does what his party will make him, the UK sovereignty act will cut us off entirely from the EU, leading to further political isoliation of the UK within the European Union by – for all intents and purposes white-washing over the EU.

And…

2. The French European Minister: Pierre Lellouche calls the Tories “autistic” and says that they have “castrated the UK in Europe”. William Hague has clearly made enough enemies of foreign goverments as shadow foreign secretray.

PS. – With any luck sovereignty act will be a meaningless piece of watered down drivel with no actual power.

LLS

Not so fast. According to Seattle Interview Coach, you'll have to answer these interview questions first...

- You are shrunk to the height of a nickel and your mass is proportionally reduced so as to maintain your original density. You are then thrown into an empty glass blender. The blades will start moving in 60 seconds. What do you do?

- How much should you charge to wash all the windows in Seattle?

- Every man in a village of 100 married couples has cheated on his wife. Every wife in the village instantly knows when a man other than her husband has cheated, but does not know when her own husband has.

The village has a law that does not allow for adultery. Any wife who can prove that her husband is unfaithful must kill him that very day.

The women of the village would never disobey this law. One day, the queen of the village visits and announces that at least one husband has been unfaithful. What happens?

- How many piano tuners are there in the entire world?

- Why are manhole covers round?

 - A man pushed his car to a hotel and lost his fortune. What happened?

- You need to check that your friend, Bob, has your correct phone number, but you cannot ask him directly. You must write a the question on a card which and give it to Eve who will take the card to Bob and return the answer to you.

What must you write on the card, besides the question, to ensure Bob can encode the message so that Eve cannot read your phone number?

- What is the probability of breaking a stick into 3 pieces and forming a triangle?

- You're the captain of a pirate ship, and your crew gets to vote on how the gold is divided up. If fewer than half of the pirates agree with you, you die.

How do you recommend apportioning the gold in such a way that you get a good share of the booty, but still survive?

Looks like the Tories aren’t the only blues to see their Euro hopes destroyed. From the Everton FC site:

The Prime Minister will be cheering Everton on tonight as the Blues face Benifca. Gordon Brown visited the North West earlier and was asked about the nation’s favourite topic, football. The PM said he was hoping for a home win at Goodison. “I want to see all British teams do well when they are playing against European opposition,” said Mr Brown. “Everton of course play tonight. I hope they do well in the Europa League and I hope they get through this stage of the competition.”

Guido broke the news to Dizzy, a lifelong Everton fan. His exact words were “That’s it we’re f****d, that f*****g c**t has really f****d us now.”

Absolute madness.

Thankfully, the rules have finally changed, and once a child reaches the age of 15 their parents will no longer have the right to remove their children from those classes. With the age of consent set at 16, the logic behind this revision of the rules is self evident.

But whilst this revision of the rules should be welcomed, it doesn’t go far enough. For sure, the age of consent is 16, but as we know all too well there are far too many children engaging in sexual activity much sooner. With that in mind, we must surely turn our minds to making sex education compulsory younger children as well.

Liberal Democrat MP David Howarth today announced that he would be standing down from Parliament at the next election to concentrate on his career as an academic.

David Howarth said:

“After nearly 22 years of elected public office, the time has come for me to concentrate on my other life, as an academic. It has been a privilege to serve the people of Cambridge over that time, both in local government and in Parliament.

“I would like to thank the very large number of people who have helped me in politics over the past two decades, and especially those who have worked for me during my time in the Commons.

“I will continue enthusiastically to support the Liberal Democrats and Nick Clegg and I wish the party all success in the future. I also look forward to continuing to play a role in the party’s policy making process.”

Commenting, Liberal Democrat Leader Nick Clegg said:

“David will be sorely missed. His colleagues here in Westminster – across all parties – recognise him as a politician of huge integrity and intellectual ability. The Liberal Democrats have benefited greatly from the powerful lead in Parliament he gave on a number of touchstone liberal issues such as climate change and the right to protest.

“As the leader of Cambridge City Council and a key member of our Federal Policy Committee before being elected an MP David has a long history of helping to shape the party’s policy making.

“I wish him every success in his career in academia. Academia’s gain is very much politics’ loss.”

See for yourself HERE, but the tone of many of the comments is not exactly supportive.

They range from the "disappointed" to the outright furious. Maybe CCHQ see this as an inevitable hiccup on the march to power. But I suspect they could do without it.

Here's a selection:

Comment by Josie Hughes on November 4, 2009 at 10:04 pm

I was going to vote for your party as you promised a referendum, now I am disappointed and will not be voting for anyone.

Comment by tezza on November 4, 2009 at 10:05 pm

Yet another politician not keeping a promise

Comment by Mark Shelton on November 4, 2009 at 10:09 pm

Yes, a referendum on Lisbon would now be futile. But a referendum to define the national attitude to the EU, as suggested today by David Davis, would not only be a negotiating card in Europe, but would also help the party to define its attitude. And is overdue.

Comment by gary powell on November 4, 2009 at 10:10 pm

I am disapointed but not surprised that yet another politician is breaking a promise.Give us a referendum so we can show the EU what we really think.I saw bill cash on gmtv and can only agree with everything he said.Ithought you were going to be different from what we have had in the past so dont spoil it now

Comment by David Thomson on November 4, 2009 at 10:13 pm

I had a gut feeling all along that you would renege on your promise, so I’m afraid that as a life long Conservative member I have no option but to now vote UKIP along with millions of other supporters who are also sick of being taken for a ride by politicians that cannot keep their promises.

David Thomson

Comment by Roy Chamberlain on November 4, 2009 at 10:14 pm

We have heard all the EU promises many many times and it seems to be that Mr Cameron is getting more like Tony the Spin every day.

Comment by Val Duncan on November 4, 2009 at 10:16 pm

Mmmm the Lisbon Treaty does NOT allow the British government to make their own laws… so how are we going to have United Kingdom Sovereignty Bill ? Will we ask the EU and expect them to say…Yes, of course you can…?
we want to negotiate three specific guarantees with our European partners over powers that we believe should reside with Britain, not the EU
And you expect 26 other Heads of State to say…Yes, of course you can…?
Don’t talk rubbish! Why should they when the EU have spent nearly 30 years getting ALL our power and rights screwed down?
This is waffle and you know it.

Comment by P Nichols on November 4, 2009 at 10:17 pm

Your current position will cost you many votes and may rightly rob you of any majority you hoped to have in the next election. It is a disgrace to treat this country in this manner.

Comment by mickdx on November 4, 2009 at 10:17 pm

How on earth can you not give us a say on who runs our country, I think you should vote UKIP, because I honestly believe them on the EU.
This make do and mend will not wash, we have had 12 years of liars over all this.
Stand up for this country or stand aside for someone who will.
Give us the vote over the EU…..

Comment by Dick Schrader on November 4, 2009 at 10:17 pm

It simply isn’t good enough, whilst being aware that the treaty has come into force a more robust approach may still have been possible.

I have little hope that Cameron will see sense and the lost votes to UKIP at the next election will most likely bring a hung parliament.

Whilst Labour is to blame Mr Cameron, the shame is on you for being so weak.

• Jonathan Capehart in PostPartisan: Fed-up nation
• John Guardiano in FrumForum: Find your inner policy wonk
• Richard Posner in The Becker-Posner Blog: Fiscal Imprudence, Distributive Injustice
• Amy Davidson in Close Read: Magical Thinking
• Michael Herman in Law Central: Cabin crew take BA to High Court over work changes

Will the Lisbon compromise mean the Tories are up or down?

It’s welcome back to PB’s cartoonist, Marf, with a new drawing this afternoon neatly linking linking the Tory polling position with all the publicity about the plinth in Trafalgar Square.

For the next round of surveys, including the latest exclusive poll for PB from Angus Reid Strategies, might set key pointers to the eventual general election outcome.

Will the Cameron switch on the Lisbon referendum, as Labour hopes, lead to a decline in the Tory position or are we going to be more or less back to where we were before the conference season?

And what about the Lib Dems? The two most recent polls - from YouGov and ICM - both ended their fieldwork on the same day and reported very different fortunes for Clegg’s party. The former had them going to 16% while the latter put them on 21%.

The critical numbers, though, are the Labour shares. Can they start to get out of the mid-late 20s and even touch 30% as they did briefly during and immediately after their conference?

The Angus Reid numbers should be out at some point on Monday and I’m expecting Populus in the Times on that day as well. I’ve no specific knowledge about the weekend but it’s pretty likely that we will see something.

Mike Smithson

So how did I do on the Cameron Strategy prediction front?

I’m calling it a 5 and half out of 6. (Here’s the text of his speech, so you can check for yourselves). The details are below the jump.

Before that though, two points.

There will be people in the Labour party who think that this is a huge political opportunity for Labour. That’s not the case, at least, not now.

Europe matters for Governments, not oppositions. What’s happened this week is that Cameron has switched his parties euroscepticism for pragmatism with a sceptic tinge. If you like, it’s a return to the Status Quo Major. The majority of the tory party will buy this for now. Their problems will come later.

This means that the coming Tory internal strife is what’s really interesting here.

If the Tories win the next election, the Tory sceptics who are now putting their faith in Cameron will have to choose between loyalty to his government and real euroscepticism. Cameron clearly hopes to put this debate off for a full parliament, so plans to send Hague round the houses to demand things back for four or five years. When he returns with this or that minor concession, how will the party deal with that?

The hard core eurosceptics, the Hannans, Helmers and Carswells and the frustrated big beasts (Davis) can see the hospital pass coming, and have already bolted or are preparing the cry of betrayal. The majority of Tories are hoping that none of this will happen and Cameron will be able to deliver.

The problem for them is that what Cameron is promising to deliver is inconsequential. The referendum lock is meaningless, the sovereignty bill won’t make a difference (Did having to put a bill through parliament stop Maastricht?) and of the powers Cameron says he wants back ,one is already opted out, one is carefully muddy and vague, and the final one, the social chapter, is about the only popular piece of European legislation.

Basically all this means Cameron can declare victory in Europe if he gets an opt out on the Working Time directive and a couple of other things.

At that point the Tory party will have to decide whether they’re OK with that. 

For now only two sorts of people have an interest in pointing all this out. The first are the Eurosceptic true believers, who are furious. The second group are people like me, who are cynical about David Cameron.

Perhaps understandably, the main swell of the Tory party have no interest in hearing this and would rather pretend that what David Cameron says means what they want to hear, not what he actually, and very carefully says. 

All of which means there won’t be a huge Tory split over this, and so, since Europe is usually a non issue in electoral politics, this won’t give Labour any huge fillip.

Of course, It does mean trouble for some putative future Tory foreign Secretary, but I suspect that’s a bet Cameron’s more than happy to lay off on William Hague.

Anyway, here’s how my patended Predict-a-cameron did.

1. Blame Brown. Check

“The decision to promise, and then deny, a referendum was taken by Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. The betrayal was backed and matched by the Liberal Democrats.”

2. Say he wanted a referendum, but impossible now - Waaah! Check.

“Of course I wanted a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty.

I’ve argued for it, campaigned for it, put it front and centre in our European election campaign…

…And if the Treaty had not been ratified by every European government when we came to the election, we would have held a referendum on it. But now it has been ratified”

3. Say he’s opposed to the current directon of the EU. Check.

“…the problems we are facing today, which will now be made worse by the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty. In essence, these problems boil down to the steady and unaccountable intrusion of the European Union into almost every aspect of our lives.”

4. Say a Tory government could make it all better. Check

” If I am elected Prime Minister, the British Government I lead will be an active member of the European Union. On energy security, on climate change, on growth, on global poverty, we will look forward to working with our European partners to make progress on those issues…

…We will stand for open markets, and a strong transatlantic relationship; an EU that looks out to the world, and that builds strong and open relations with rising powers like China and India.”

5. Say he’ll start negotiating powers back ,with some very careful language. Check

“A Conservative Government will address some of these problems by negotiating three specific guarantees with our European partners guarantees over powers that we believe should reside with Britain, not the EU.”

6. Announce a referendum for afterwards. Sort of. He basically threatens one if he doesn’t get his way.

“ if those circumstances were to occur, we would not rule out a referendum on a wider package of guarantees to protect our democratic decision-making, while remaining, of course, a member of the European Union”

Dan Hannan isn’t doing interviews currently because he wants to take some of the heat out of the Lisbon issue and make sure that hostile media can’t spin things into a Dan versus Cam story. He still maintains more cordial than you might expect relations with David Cameron. As he says in his post-ratification blog post:

I shall continue to campaign for a referendum on the EU and, in the mean time, for the election of a Cameron-led government.

He will not be doing an Enoch and telling people to vote for any party other than the Conservative Party – tough luck UKIP. Informed sources say that he is planning to set up an infrastructure to support a long-term campaign not just for a referendum, but for a decentralised style of government from local level to the supra-national level.

This isn’t a short-term campaign and he accepts that this may require him embarking on a Keith Joseph style long march politically. He aims to make the case for localist ideas that will separate the referendum issue from Little England thinking and frame it as a question of democratic legitimacy. His aim, he says, is to build a broad movement within the Conservative Party that will push for referendums, citizens’ initiatives and the rest of the paraphernalia of direct democracy. In The Plan Hannan and Carswell outlined how technological advances, the internet in particular, makes direct democracy feasible. Hannan and Carswell really do get it that the internet can change how we do politics...

Meanwhile the broken banks are regulated in such a way that they cannot lend more to the private sector. We limp on with a two tier economy. We have a public sector awash with printed cash, and a private sector squeezed by broken banks.