Tischendorf Letter

Tischendorf Letter Interview By Mike Swanson’s WallStreetWindow

Olivier — Tue, 18 Jun 2013 16:52:57 +0000

Veteran trader Mike Swanson from WallStreetWindow recorded an audio interview with me. He has been trading actively for quite some time and is a very experienced trader who has gone through many bull and bear market cycles. You can learn more about him here: http://www.wallstreetwindow.com/aboutus

Listen to the interview:

http://www.wallstreetwindow.com/node/8376

The interview covers topics like trend following, risk management, stock selection, staying in control and a few sectors worth monitoring going forward.
Hope you enjoy it!

Here is FNV, a stock I mentioned during the interview:

Up-to-date FNV – Franco Nevada Chart on my public list.

“Everything you want is on the other side of fear.” ― Jack Canfield

AVD – American Vanguard Agriculture Stock With Strong Bullish Chart

Olivier — Thu, 14 Mar 2013 19:48:18 +0000

Another trading idea as I am always looking for great set-ups within the Agriculture sector. I still think this could be one of the strongest sectors in the years to come. In any case, my beliefs don’t matter. I stick to the charts. They need to confirm my beliefs.

AVD – American Vanguard is a good example. It is trading near its all time high and is worth putting on a position from a purely technical perspective. The recent shakeout below the moving average 200 should ultimately turn out to be a picture perfect false move. The stock is now powering higher and on its way to take out the second pivot point around 35. I believe AVD has the potential to behave exactly the same way ONXX – Onyx Pharmaceuticals recently did. My annotated charts exemplify what I am talking about. I have a position in AVD.

AVD - American Vanguard

Up-to-date Agriculture Sector Overview Chart on my public list.
Up-to-date Agriculture II. Sector Overview Chart on my public list.

ONXX - Onyx Pharmaceuticals

Do not trust your opinions… But let the action of the market confirm your opinions. – Jesse Livermore

Charts: http://stockcharts.com/public/1109839/tenpp

OAS – Oasis Petroleum Position Trade Opportunity Bullish Chart Pattern

Olivier — Mon, 11 Mar 2013 12:32:51 +0000

Quick chart post with a trade idea I consider to offer good potential. The way I see it, the chart is well suited for true position traders. OAS – Oasis Petroleum has broken out above long-term horizontal resistance and is now consolidating and building out a bullish flag pattern. A conservative price target looks to be 47$. The technicals ultimately imply an even higher price target. The stock shouldn’t dip back below the recent swing low at 34.53. A stop loss below that level offers protection if price action invalidates my technical analysis assumptions. I have a position.

Real movements do not end the day they start. – Jesse Livermore

Charts: http://stockcharts.com/public/1109839/tenpp

FAN – Wind Energy ETF Stock Trade Idea

Olivier — Tue, 12 Feb 2013 10:18:28 +0000

Quick post with a beaten down sector trade idea. I have recently charted FAN – First Trust Global Wind Energy ETF as several German listed individual stocks within that sector sparked my interest. FAN would be a diversified approach without exposing yourself to single stock risk. The ETF also makes sense for US based investors who want exposure to wind energy as most of the biggest players are not listed in the US. Top holdings of the FAN ETF:

China Longyuan Power Group-H
Nordex AG
Vestas Wind Systems
Iberdrola S.A.
EDP Renovaveis SA
Gamesa Corporacion Tecnologica, S.A.
China WindPower Group Limited
Greentech Energy Systems
Infigen Energy
PNE Wind AG
Arise Windpower AB
Japan Wind Development Co., Ltd.
Theolia SA
Eolus Vind AB

Here’s my technical analysis take on FAN.

FAN - First Trust Global Wind Energy ETF Technical Analysis Chart

Up-to date Wind Energy Sector Overview Chart on my public list.

The chart looks like a potential bottom formation. If the stock can take out the 8.00 $ level a conservative measured move completing the inverted head and shoulders pattern would imply a price target around 10 US$. A wider stop loss below the weekly moving average 30 makes sense as it would give the stock enough room to breathe. I have a position in FAN.

Recently I have come across a lot of picture series showing the incredible air pollution levels in China. One series that comes to mind would be the Atlantic’s ‘China’s Toxic Sky‘. I have no idea how to solve that kind of problem. One thing is for sure though. This is unsustainable and China has to change something as the situation is slowly starting to get out of control in some big Chinese cities. Renewable energy sources could very well be part of the solution.

Es ist nicht gesagt, daß es besser wird, wenn es anders wird. Wenn es aber besser werden soll, muß es anders werden. - Georg Christoph Lichtenberg

Charts: http://stockcharts.com/public/1109839/tenpp

Quick Market And Sector Thoughts

Olivier — Thu, 24 Jan 2013 02:08:22 +0000

A few quick thoughts on the market and some select sectors.
Here we go:

Overall market as in S&P 500: This is one of the most hated rallies I have witnessed in quite some time. A lot of ‘rational’ arguments you can come up with in order to justify not participating. One would be that it’s late in the bull market cycle. Looking at price alone though the conclusion to come up with is very simple: The market wants to go up. In my main watch list that contains roughly 400 charts almost every one looks constructive and wants to go up. I also see healthy rotation going on. That being said there is always the risk of a correction and a swing top. As of yet I would rule out a long-term market top for the following two reasons: 1. Topping processes need time to play out. 2. Sector rotation is healthy.
Gold: Gold needs more time. I simply cannot see any kind of immediate buying pressure.
Gold and silver mining stocks: Abysmal performance and technical behaviour. One indicator I am watching is how strong leaders like FNV – Franco Nevada are acting. FNV has started to break down from the bullish wedge / flag pattern. Lots of miners going down hard today. The way I see it lots of miners have been holding up or have been moving down in a controlled fashion for quite some time based on hope, perceived low valuation, catch up potential etc. If the miners go down more from these levels I think a flush out is likely. This could get very ugly as a lot of weak hands might be forced to finally throw in the towel. I am still avoiding this sector for now.
Biotech: True bull market. The majority of the biotech stocks I am watching simply wants to go up. That’s especially the case with small to mid-cap biotech stocks. My public list contains 5 Biotech sector overview charts. More than enough to find interesting trading ideas.
Agriculture: An investment theme I am still very bullish on going forward. MON – Monsanto would be one example of a stock I have been monitoring for quite some time on my public list. The trend is up and accelerating.
Commodities: Paper and pulp related stocks are looking good. CUS.TO – Canexus is acting well and would be one way to play that trend using a picks and shovels approach. Coal stocks are trying to put in a bottom. It is still very early days to call for a turnaround. Small-cap oil and natural gas related stocks are doing well. Lots of trading ideas you can find on my public list charts.

It’s much easier to learn what you should do in trading than to do it. – William Eckhardt

Charts: http://stockcharts.com/public/1109839/tenpp

CUS.TO – Canexus Chemical Stock Trading Idea At All Time High

Olivier — Thu, 10 Jan 2013 02:14:58 +0000

Chemical stock CUS.TO – Canexus Corporation is a trading idea for a chart trading at an all time high. The stock has staged a break out to the upside out of a long-term bullish rectangle pattern. It looks like it is now consolidating in a tight and narrow bullish flag pattern. You know the usual drill. No overhead resistance. If volume kicks in and the stock keeps printing new highs it won’t encounter selling pressure as everybody holding the stock will be profitable. One to keep on the radar. I have a position.

CUS.TO Canexus Corporation Rectangle Pattern Bullish Flag All Time High

I’ve recently added CUS.TO – Canexus to the Chemicals Sector Overview Chart on my public list.
That is an easy way to compare and keep track of relative strength with some of CUS.TO’s peers.

Company description from the Canexus website:

Canexus produces sodium chlorate and chlor-alkali products largely for the pulp and paper and water treatment industries. Our four plants in Canada and two at one site in Brazil are reliable, low-cost, strategically-located facilities that capitalize on competitive electricity costs and transportation infrastructure to minimize production and delivery costs. We also provide fee-for-service hydrocarbon transloading services to the oil and gas industry from our terminal at Bruderheim, Alberta.

The market does not know you exist. You can do nothing to influence it. You can only control your behavior. - Alexander Elder

Charts: www.stockcharts.com/public/1109839/tenpp

Weekend Reading

Olivier — Sat, 05 Jan 2013 05:27:44 +0000

Some interesting stuff worth reading or listening to.
Hope you like the selection. Have a great weekend!

Burning Desire – Trading Steps India – Sudarshan Sukhani
Global Macro Trader – Solar Cycles UK – John Hampson
Pay Attention To Price Action – Joe Fahmy
You Don’t Need To Know The Future – Ivanhoff Capital
Gil Morales + Chris Kacher Interview – Michael Covel
Music: ‘Me And My Drummer’ – Berlin Sessions

Le secret de la liberté, c’est la librairie. – Bernard Werber

Charts: www.stockcharts.com/public/1109839/tenpp

FNV – Franco Nevada Leading Precious Metal Stock

Olivier — Thu, 03 Jan 2013 22:43:31 +0000

Quick follow up post on precious metal mining stocks and what to expect down the road. As you can see in my KGC – Kinross Gold chart analysis a few weeks back, I drew your attention to potential stop buy levels that would indicate sound technical entries. Price hasn’t even tried to touch these levels so far. This goes to show how using stop buy orders can protect you from your opinion. It’s OK to be bullish based on whatever reason you might come up with. It’s not OK to commit money if price doesn’t confirm your opinion. That being said I have been avoiding exposure to mining stocks since March 2011. I believe it will soon be time to get aggressive again, but my opinions do not matter. Until price tells me to go for it I do stand aside.

On to FNV – Franco Nevada a royalty company which is part of my public list. FNV is one of the best looking stocks within the precious metals sector. It has a very smooth trading personality and it is trading close to its all time high. A stock trading near its all time high is a sign of strength. Basically one doesn’t need to know more.

FNV - Franco Nevada Precious Metal Leader Technical Analysis

Up-to-date FNV – Franco Nevada Chart on my public list

FNV hasn’t broken out of its bullish flag yet. Until it does I am avoiding mining stocks and am standing aside. As the market adage goes:

“Leaders need to lead.”

When FNV breaks to the upside it will be the signal to commit funds to that sector. The most beaten down stocks will initially lag but some will ultimately outperform because they will try to catch up. Again, only some will catch up. Most probably won’t. If in doubt, the safest and easiest bet is to go with the leaders that offer price appreciation potential without overhead resistance.

A trader should have no opinion, the stronger your opinion, the harder it is to get out of a losing position. – Paul Rotter

Charts: www.stockcharts.com/public/1109839/tenpp

KGC – Kinross Gold Potential W-Bottom Chart Formation

Olivier — Thu, 13 Dec 2012 00:36:19 +0000

As I’ve mentioned KGC – Kinross Gold quite a few times in the past posts now is a good time to take a closer look at KGC’s chart formation. The daily chart shows a bullish flag pattern in the making with an obvious pivot point that could be used as the price level for a technical entry using a stop buy order. The weekly chart shows a potentially very bullish W-bottom formation. This clearly looks like KGC is trying to turn around. Kinross Gold has put in a much more pronounced higher low than most of its senior gold mining peers. Still, the problem with KGC is that it has built up massive overhead resistance. The stock will have to fight constant selling pressure for years to come as traders will unload stock on the grind higher in order to sell their under water positions for a break even trade. As a general rule a stock within the same sector without overhead resistance usually is the better choice as it offers blue sky potential. FNV – Franco Nevada is one such stock that comes to mind that fits that description. You can find FNV on my public list. That being said, KGC should be good for a 14 $ price target once it starts moving. Only then will it have to fight through the first serious resistance level.

KGC - Kinross Gold Daily Chart Bullish Flag Pattern

KGC - Kinross Gold Weekly Chart W-Bottom Formation

Conclusion: Today’s move in gold and the gold miners was a good start but it was not convincing enough yet. Most mining stock charts look very sick to put it mildly. Do not trade your opinion. Instead, focus on finding good technical buy entries and above all stay disciplined. As I have preached numerous times in the past years the best insurance you can buy is to go for stocks without overhead resistance. The reason is simple. You are getting exposure to a situation where buyers are in control. It takes time until such a situation changes and control shifts to sellers. Therefore such a stock usually offers enough time to exit without getting crushed.

To follow the good principles and not fear, greed and hope is tough. You’re swimming upstream against human nature. – Richard Dennis

Charts: www.stockcharts.com/public/1109839/tenpp

Nassim Nicholas Taleb – Antifragility Antifragile Videos

Olivier — Thu, 06 Dec 2012 13:54:44 +0000

Must watch videos. The first one is a recent interview with Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of ‘The Black Swan’ and ‘Fooled By Randomness’. The second one is a lengthy video that explains his anti-fragile / anti-fragility concept in a much more detailed way. One problem is that artificially suppressing volatility weakens the system. The main problem though is really simple. In plain English: If you have no skin in the game you profit from the upside of a risky investment. If things go wrong somebody else pays for your bad decisions. As long as this problem is not addressed the whole system will stay fragile. Enjoy the videos.

Update 01/03/13: Added a third video with Taleb from Authors@Google.

Too many people buy things they don’t need with money they don’t have to impress people they don’t know. Don’t be one of them.

Charts: www.stockcharts.com/public/1109839/tenpp