Thoroughbred Chat

1/29 Derby Top Five

2012-01-29T18:40:00.000-05:00

It's been over a month since I introducted the Top 5, and there are some changes to the list. In mid-Feb, the list will expand to Top 7 and by March will be at the Top 15. The goal is by the begining of the final preps to really have the Top 20 set up and ready to go. For now, here is the first Top Five list of the new year.

1. Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway)- Dad was so close of winning the Classic as 3yo 12 years ago this year. Mom was an amazing horse, and with some buzzy horses coming out of California, I'm actually liking his chances more.

2. Algorimthms (Bernardini)- Defeated the 2yo Champ Hansen today in the Holy Bull. Here's the thing, he might not be Todd Pletcher's strongest bullet.

3. Dullahan (Even the Score)- There's just something that I love about him that I didn't about his brother. I'm very excited to see what he does down in FL.

4. Gemologist (Tiznow)- This horse could be a freak. Why is he ranked so low? I'm too scared that I will curse him if I put him higher then 4th.

5. Union Rags (Dixie Union)- Alot of people are rooting for this guy, six years after his trainers most famous and beloved charge won the Run for the Roses (today is the fifth aniversary of Barbaro's death).

Dropped off: Hansen (Tapit), Liasion (Indian Charlie)

Others Considered: Sabrecat, Out of Bounds, Midnight Transfer

It's a shame that the Shackleford's little bro, Stephanoatsee is injured and off the TC trail (would have loved to see what Oatsee did with a distance stallion). The Oaks Top 5 will be released later this week.

Finally, San Pail was named HOY last night and a very happy 6th birthday to Rachel Alexandra! (She and baby is currently at Rood and Riddle, but could be going home soon).

Will San Pail get his crown?

2012-01-27T19:42:00.000-05:00

Yes this is a Thoroughbred blog, but for one night I want to talk about Standardbreds. One horse in particular in matter of fact. Who may that be? Why it's the one and only San Pail! Tomorrow night is the O'Brien Awards which is the Canadian Standardbred version of the Soverign Awards (which in turn are the Canadian Thoroughbred version of the Eclipses). It has already been announced that San Pail was the unanimous winner for Older Male and is the heavy favorite to be named Horse of the Year. There is also a huge chance that he could be named the Dan Patch (US Standardbred Awards) HOY as well. Here are some of his races:

His third Maple Leaf Trot in a row

The Nat Ray on Hambo day

Credit Winner nailing Lucky Jim on the wire and setting a new track record in the process

The crowing achivement of his year defeating two Europeans in the Breeders' Crown

The OBrien's are tomorrow night at 9pm, I'll be watching online and rooting for San Pail to be named HOY!

Breeders' Cup returns to it's roots

2012-01-26T20:46:00.000-05:00

After spending the past couple of years on ABC and ESPN, the Breeders' Cup is returning to it's orginal television home. NBC who had shown the BC up to 2005 (with ESPN starting in 2006) will be the "new home" for the BC. Well technically speaking, NBC will be showing just the Classic, with the NBC Sports Network (formally known as OLN and Versus) will be showing the rest of the races. This is the big boost for a network whose been struggling lately with it's scripted shows (the very much hyped Playboy Club was a bust, Whitney isn't funny and Up All Night hasn't lived up to it's early high ratings).

So what went wrong at ESPN? The producer who had brought the BC to the station left shortly afterwards. I also think that putting Football specialist Chris Fowler and then Boxing specialist Joe Tessitore instead of Basketball specialist Reece Davis as the main anchor also hurt (before Chris and Joe where part of the racing coverage, Reece was the second host behind Kenny Mayne). It didn't help that Jim McKay (RIP) and Al Michaels, both who worked racing on ABC where no longer part of the Disney family. Lastly, many people don't like Trevor Denman.

While many people are happy that the BC is returning, NBC Sports Network is not as well known as ESPN. The station is a baby (started in 1995), and up until a few years ago was not really that well known station (at the time Comcast's OLN (which now owns NBC, but didn't at that time) and NBC teamed up to secure US tv rights for the NHL). However, thanks to the success of last year's Saratoga meet (ratings where good) and the fact that NBC's crew will be used is a win (although someone will have to fill in for Tom Hammond that weekend at Notre Dame as the Irish are home).

As for ESPN, it's obvious that they have moved on to focus on football, basketball, baseball, tennis and soccer (although for the latter they will also have comp. from the said NBC Sports Network). As disapointing as that is, the hit on losing viewers for them won't be great.

The biggest plus of all though? No more Hank!

Early 2015 TC Favorite!

2012-01-22T20:25:00.000-05:00

He's here!!!!! The product of 2 time Horse of the Year Curlin (Smart Strike) and 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra (Medagalia d' Oro) was born this afternoon at Stonestreet Farm in KY. Here is a picture that was posted on both Twitter and Facebook.

Of course the stakes will be high for him considering who both his parents are. Since the announcement on Derby day last year, that Rachel was carring a colt, I had pegged this little guy to be the early favorite for the 2015 Triple Crown. If all goes according to plan, he will be making his first start sometime in 2014 when he is 2.

Of course right now the most important thing is that it appears that both son and mother are doing well. Rachel will be bred to 2006 3yo Champion Male Bernardini this year. This is the second major mare announced to visit him this year in the past two weeks. Blind Luck will also be visiting him for her first foal, and of course Zenyatta is currently in foal to him and will be due shortly.

Eclipse Recap

2012-01-17T14:31:00.002-05:00

Here are the results for the Eclipse, as well as my thoughts.

2yo Male: Hansen- Say what you may about him, the right horse won the award. He beat Union Rags on the track where it counts.

2yo Female: My Miss Aurelia- Nice that we heard from her namesake, but Barbara Banke was just as bad as her late husband when it comes to length.

3yo Male: Animal Kingdom- Three votes separated him and Caleb's Posse, and becomes the first Derby winner since Big Brown to win the award. However, I didn't agree with the decision (I was saying on both Twitter and Facebook that it was BS). Caleb won 2 G1's over a BC race winner from the year before and a TC race winner. Plus he defeated Archarcharch earlier in the year. Animal Kingdom got a great ride in what turned out (at least to me) the worst Derby in quite a while. I'm hoping that Caleb kicks butt this year while I believe Animal Kingdom will struggle. Especially with where he's going.

3yo Female: Royal Delta- No surprise, she deserved it, but Awesome Feather got a few votes? Really?

Older Male: Acclamation- In the end his win in a G1 nullified his G3 last place finish. Deserved it over the two other candidates who had good, but not great seasons. HOY Finalist

Older Female: Havre de Grace- Was there ever a doubt? Was very surprising that Maria got a vote instead of just Grace and Clover. HOY Finalist

Turf Male: Cape Blanco- Another not surprising choice, I had heard some people voted for Acclamation, so I figured that the vote would be close, but it wasn't. HOY Finalist

Turf Female: Stacelita- Did her owner really have to give her life story? Another non surprise, but I somewhat hoping that Perfect Shirl would have pulled off the upset.

Male Sprinter: Amazombie- I feel bad for Caleb, he didn't have a chance in this category and he lost his other category by a very slim margin. This was the biggest cheer I heard all night, at least to me it was.

Female Sprinter: Musical Romance- Honestly this was the award that I wasn't a 100% who would get it, but I'm not sure if the right horse won. Then again I was hoping that Sassy Image would be the winner.

Owner: Ken and Sarah Ramsey- Really glad they won and not Team Valor. Hopefully Stephanie's Kitten does well for them this year.

Breeder: Adena Springs- This. Is. BS. Really, I can't name a single Adena bred who won a stakes race this past year (not saying there where none, just at the top of my head I can't think of any). I find it funny that when the awards are on his station, Frank Stronach actually shows up (he usually lets his wife handle the awards).

Trainer: Bill Mott- The right person won, you can't take away who Drosselmeyer and Royal Delta did this year in the BC. Just like in 1995, he wins the Eclipse for Trainer.

Apprentice Jockey: Kyle Frey- The most heartwrenching as he was griving the loss of his grandfather. A superstar could be born at Phila, I mean Parx.

Jockey: Ramon Domingez- The Mid-Atlantic is the place to be. Sure he's based in New York now, but he dominated Delaware for years and rode Grace in all, but 1 of her wins in 2011 (Obeah was ridden by Gabriel Saez since it was the same day as the Belmont, Gabe rides her in morning workouts).

HORSE OF THE YEAR: There where three finalists, all deserving of the accolade to make it to this list. Acclamation, Cape Blanco and Havre de Grace. All three of them had the same amount of G1 wins, 3. All three had faced the best of their division, and all three where the winners of their division's Eclipse. In the end though only one horse could win, and that horse was....

Grace!!! Say what you may about who she ran against, and that she didn't win the Classic. However, she defeated the Ladies Classic winner and the F/M Sprint runner up. Plus her final duel with Blind Luck In the end, the right horse won the Award.

ESPN's Jeannine Edwards was the host, and considering the circumstances she did an okay job. HRTV on the other hand, did a poor job with making it look like a rush job, although it turned out to be a last minute addition as Jason Shandler writes. I do disagree with him about making it look like how the MLB, NFL and NBA does it. I feel that they do a poor job by stretching it out since we have to wait for a certin award to come if we don't care about the rest of them. NHL, I feel is the only one that does it correctly in holding a ceremony right after the Stanley Cup Finals are over. Maybe that is something that the NTRA should look at for future years down the road is to hold it right after the Breeders' Cup at a nice hotel near the host track.

In the end, awards are now over and we don't have to think about them again... until this upcoming November.

Eclipse Chat 1/16

2012-01-16T18:30:00.001-05:00

Rules and Housekeeping will be announced in the chat. Enjoy!

<p>&amp;lt;a href="http://www.coveritlive.com/mobile.php/option=com_mobile/task=viewaltcast/altcast_code=a22c688446" &amp;gt;Eclipse Live Chat&amp;lt;/a&amp;gt;</p>

On Fire Baby takes on Boys

2012-01-15T16:26:00.000-05:00

Tomorrow's Smarty Jones at Oaklawn is not only the prep for the three big races at the track, but could be the begining of what could be an interesting year for On Fire Baby as she takes on the boys in this race.

8th Race - Oaklawn Park - Monday, January 16th, 2012
STAKES. 1 Mile Dirt. Purse $100,000. Smarty Jones S.. THREE YEAR OLDS. No nomination fee. $750 to pass the entry box and $1000 additional to start, Supplementary nominations may be made by the closing time of entries at a fee of $2,500 which qulifies to starts. $100,000 Guaranteed of which 60% to the Owner of the winner, 20% to second, 10% to third, 5% to fourth, 3% to fifth and 2% to be divided equally between remaining starters. Weights: 122lbs. Non-winners of $40,000 twice allowed 3 lbs.; $30,000 once 5 lbs.; $15,000 once 7 lbs. (Maiden and Claiming races not considered.) In Allowance Stakes starting preference will be given to horses that have accumulated the highest earnings excluding money won in restricted races. Starters to be named through the entry box by the usual time of closing. The Owner of the winner to receive a trophy. Closed Wednesday, January 11, 2012 with 31 nominees. (04:33 PM) (12)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Laurie's Rocket 3 C L 117 Hernandez, Jr. Brian Joseph Stewart Dallas
2 Junebugred 3 C L 115 Bravo Joe Hobby Steve
3 Prince Cheval 3 G L 115 Kuntzweiler Greta Allen Gene
4 No Spin 3 C L b 119 Hill Channing Ice Tim A.
5 Fastestwhogetspaid 3 C L 117 Ocampo Israel Williamson Brian
6 Optimizer 3 C L 115 Thompson Terry J. Lukas D. Wayne
7 Copus 3 G L 117 Felix Julio E. Rainwater Bradlee
8 Jake Mo 3 C L 119 Berry M. Clifton Milligan Allen
9 Hard Nosed 3 G L 115 Santana, Jr. Ricardo Moquett Ron
10 On Fire Baby 3 F 117 Johnson Joe M. Hartlage Gary G.
11 King Coral 3 G L 117 Saez Gabriel Milligan Allen
12 Reckless Jerry 3 C L 117 Laviolette Shane Smith Kenny P

Jake Mo, No Spin, and Optimizer could be the ones to challenge her the most. Laurie's Rocket and Hard Nosed also have faced high quality horses. This won't be an easy race for On Fire Baby, especially since with those horses who I talked about. That being said, she is the class of the field and is undefeated on dirt. My one concern for her going forward is how far she really wants to go, but for now at a mile she is my pick for tomorrow. Should be the start to a fun year at Oaklawn!

Don't forget that the live chat is tomorrow night at 7:30 as the Eclipse Awards get underway at 8 on HRTV.

Charly, Soaring, Flat oh my!

2012-01-13T17:59:00.001-05:00

All three horses who are in my title are in action tomorrow at Gulfstream. Charly and Flat in the Ft. Lauderdale, while Soaring tries to defend his Hal's Hope title.

9th Race - Gulfstream Park - Saturday, January 14th, 2012
STAKES. 1 Mile Dirt. Purse $100,000. Hal's Hope S. (Grade 3). FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. Free Nomination by Saturday December 31, 2011, $1,000 to pass the entry box and $500 additional to start, with $100,000 Guaranteed. All fees shall be paid prior to the start of the race. The owner of the winner to receive $60,000; $20,000 to second, $10,000 to third, $5,000 to fourth, $3,000 to fifth and $2,000 to sixth. Supplemental nominations may be made at time of entries at a fee of $5,000, which includes entry and starting fees. Weight : 123 lbs. Non-winners of a grade I in 2011 allowed 2 lbs; a graded stakes or $60,000 twice at a mile or over in 2011 4 lbs., $45,000 twice at a mile or over in 2011 6 lbs. Starters to be named through the entry box by the usual time of closing. This race will be limited to 14 Starters, with Also Eligibles. If more than fourteen (14) entries pass the entry box preference will be given to graded stakes winners, then highest 2010-2012 earnings. Trophy to winning owner. Nominations Closed Saturday, December 31, 2011 with 21 Nominations. (04:17 PM) (9)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Jackson Bend 5 H L 123 Velazquez John R. Zito Nicholas P.
2 Sky Venture 5 G L 117 Leyva Juan C. Paul Cecil
3 Sangaree 7 H L 117 Maragh Rajiv McLaughlin Kiaran P.
4 Successful Mission 6 G L 121 Trujillo Elvis Plesa, Jr. Edward
5 Decisive Moment 4 C L 121 Madrid Sebastian O. Arias Juan D.
6 Our Dark Knight 5 H L 117 Bravo Joe Zito Nicholas P.
7 Soaring Empire 5 H L 121 Leparoux Julien R. Gambolati Cam M.
8 Cool Blue Red Hot 4 C L 117 Cruz Manoel R. Penna, Jr. Angel J.
9 Will's Wildcat 4 G L 117 Borel Calvin H. Baker James E.

This will be the Sangaree's first race in his new barn since Godolphin decided close it's US operations (he will still be running in Godolphin colors though). Soaring Empire is the defending champ, but stretching out to a mile is what Jackson Bend has been asking for. Our Dark Knight could suprise people as well.

10th Race - Gulfstream Park - Saturday, January 14th, 2012
STAKES. 1 1/16 Mile Turf. Purse $100,000. Ft. Lauderdale S. (Grade 3). FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. Free nomination by Saturday December 31, 2011, $1,000 to pass the entry box and $500 additional to start, with $100,000 Guaranteed. All fees shall be paid prior to the start of the race. The owner of the winner to receive $60,000, $20,000 to second, $10,000 to third, $5,000 to fourth, $3,000 to fifth and $2,000 to sixth. Supplemental nominations may be made at time of entry for a fee of $5,000, which includes entry and starting fees. Weight: 123 lbs. Non-winners of a gradeI or II stakes on the turf in 2011 allowed 2 lbs.; of a sweepstakes at a mile or over on the turf since July 1, 4lbs., $45,000 at a mile or over since August 1, 6 lbs. Starters to be named through the entry box by the usual time of closing. This race willl be limited to 14 Starters, with Also Eligibles. If more than fourteen (14) entries pass the entry box preference will be given to graded stakes winners, then highest 2010-2012 earnings. Trophy to the winning owner. Nominations Closed on Saturday, December 31, 2011 with 38 Nominations. (If deemed inadvisable to run this race over the turf course, it will be run on the main track at One Mile and One Sixteenth). (04:45 PM) (14)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Uptowncharlybrown 5 H L b 117 Maragh Rajiv Coletti, Sr. Edward J.
2 Santiva 4 C L 117 Castanon Jesus Lopez Walsh Brendan P.
3 Guys Reward 5 H L 117 Centeno Daniel Romans Dale L.
4 Yummy With Butter 8 G L 121 Lopez Paco Belsoeur Yvon
5 Mutual Trust (GB) 4 C L 123 Lezcano Jose Mott William I.
6 Mambo Meister 7 G L 117 Bravo Joe Gleaves Philip A.
7 Teaks North 5 G L 123 Leyva Juan C. Sallusto Justin
8 Flat Out 6 H L 119 Solis Alex O. Dickey Charles L.
9 Hollinger 5 G L 117 Velazquez John R. Attfield Roger L.
10 Silver Medallion 4 C L 121 Castellano Javier Pletcher Todd A.
11 Hoofit (NZ) 5 G L 117 Prado Edgar S. Motion H. Graham
12 Kindergarden Kid 5 G L 121 Leparoux Julien R. Tagg Barclay
13 Cool Blue Red Hot 4 C L 117 Cruz Manoel R. Penna, Jr. Angel J.
14 Flatter This 5 H L 119 Jurado Luis O'Connell Kathleen

Obviously the big reason why Flat Out is in here and not the Hal's Hope is for feet reasons (he's had quarter cracks in the past). Yummy with Butter won two stakes last year, but had faultered down the stretch. Hoofit was screwed in the BC Turf Sprint by being basically taken out of the race, Hollinger was third last time out in a G3. Charly is trying to rebound from 2 4th place finishes, Teaks North shocked everyone in the UN, but faultered down the stretch. Santiva ran in the Derby and Belmont, but this is only his second start since June.

Picks
Hal's Hope: Jackson
Ft. L: Flat Out

The Smarty Jones on Monday will feature a boys vs girl senerio as On Fire Baby starts her campaign for possible try at the Derby. Don't forget about the live chat on Monday as well!

Eclipse Live Chat Announcement

2012-01-12T17:58:00.001-05:00

On Monday beginning at 7:30 pm and going till the end of the ceremonies, I will be hosting a Live Chat for the Eclipses. We'll be talking about HOY predictions as well as category predictions. As usual Cover It Live will be the software of choice for the chat.

Hope to see you there!

New Look

2012-01-09T18:42:00.001-05:00

Hey guys! As you can see, there is a new look to the blog. Why do this? For a few reasons:

The blog has looked the same for several years and I wanted to have a little bit of a change.
The content of the blog will be changing a little bit as well. I'm hoping to have more track stories and stakes previews as well as recaps.
There will be more of a focus on the Turf horses this upcoming year, but will still be previewing the major dirt races including the Derby and Oaks.

That's really it for now. I'll have more of a post later this week.

Eclipse Finalists and Picks

2012-01-05T15:55:00.000-05:00

There are only 11 days until the Eclipse Awards are held. Today, the finalists for all the catagories (except for Horse of the Year) where annonounced. Pretty much cut and dry with a few suprises, here are they are with my picks.

2-Year-Old Male: Creative Cause, Hansen, Union Rags

No suprise these where the three best horses in this catagory this year. It's really between Hansen and Union Rags. While the former has the better numbers on paper, the latter beat him where it counted... on the track. For that reason Hansen wins.

2-Year-Old Filly: Grace Hall, My Miss Aurelia, Stephanie's Kitten

Aurelia might go unanimous here, but the suprising thing won't be that. It will be that Weemissfrankie was shut out and going with Stephanie instead. Grace H. right now is my early #1 for the Oaks.

3-Year-Old Male: Animal Kingdom, Caleb's Posse, Shackleford

Many people think that Animal Kingdom deserves it in a bit of an odd year for the 3yo's. However, Caleb won 2 G1's over a 2yo Champ (Uncle Mo) and a TC race winner (Shack).

3-Year-Old Filly: It's Tricky, Plum Pretty, Royal Delta

Another cut and dry catagory, Delta just didn't beat the other 2 once in the Alabama, but she did it again in the BC.

Older Male: Acclamation, Game on Dude, Tizway

One of two catagories that are wide open. Any of these horses could win this catagory and I wouldn't have a problem with it. The early favorite is Game On Dude, but I'm thinking Acclamation will steal the prize.

Older Female: Awesome Maria, Blind Luck, Havre de Grace

A. All three horses especially the one of the middle are good horses. B. If this is not unanimous for Grace, then I have no clue.

Male Sprinter: Amazombie, Caleb's Posse, Regally Ready

As much as love Caleb, only 2 of his races this year where under a mile (Amsterdam and King's Bishop) for that I wouldn't have put him here. With that being said, the sprinting catagory was another "odd" catagory this year. I love that a turf sprinter is a finalist, but Amazombie flat out deserves this award.

Female Sprinter: Hilda's Passion, Musical Romance, Sassy Image

This one is more wide open IMO then Older Male. A coin toss has to be made and I gotta go with Sassy's Image. It would be only the second time that the BC F/M Sprint winner would not win the division. That is if this happens.

Male Turf Horse: Acclamation, Cape Blanco , St Nicholas Abbey

Cape Blanco is going to win... I'm hoping though that St. Nicholas Abbey split the vote enough for Acclamation to get close enough to make it a tight race.

Female Turf Horse: Dubawi Heights, Perfect Shirl, Stacelita

People are a little disapointed that Never Retreat is not nominated. With that said, Stacelita should win in what I think is the weakest division.

Steeplechase Horse: Black Jack Blues, Decoy Daddy, Tax Ruling

Abstain

Owner: Midwest Thoroughbreds, Kenneth and Sarah Ramsey, Team Valor

Gotta go with Team KJ here, Ken and Sarah Ramsey.

Breeder: Adena Springs, Brereton C. Jones, Kenneth and Sarah Ramsey

Adena owns this division, I think it's time for some new blood. Going with Gov. Jones.

Trainer: Bob Baffert, Bill Mott, Todd Pletcher

The Dudes, Delta/Dross or Mo. Humm... That BC sweep for Bill is prob. more then enough to get the win. And the last time that he won the Classic he was the Champion trainer (both years that Cigar won HOY actually).

Jockey: Javier Castellano, Ramon Dominguez, John Velazquez

You have a jockey who finised strong, a jockey who is the regular rider on the no doubt about it Champion Older Female, and a jockey who finally got off the Derby shinde a year after his go to trainer did. Either way the award is heading to NY where all three are based. I guess I have to with Javier by default, but I hope Ramon gets it.

Apprentice Jockey: Ryan Curatolo, Kyle Frey, Rosario Montanez

abstain

As for who I think will be the three HOY candiates, I'm thinking Grace will def. be one, either Acclamation or Game On Dude with be the second and Cape Blanco, Union Rags, Hansen, or Aurilea will be third. My HOY pick is... Havre de Grace, I think she just did too much this year defeating Flat Out and Royal Delta, as well as her duel with Blind Luck will be more then enough to become the third female in a row to be HOY.

Good luck to all those who are nominated.

10 Horses I'm Looking Foward to This Year (3 and Older Only)

2012-01-04T11:38:00.000-05:00

With the year just getting underway, I thought I would share the 10 horses that I'm looking foward to seeing this year. In by no means these are the 10 best horses, but most of these horses are graded stakes winners. I hope you enjoy! (Note: All these horses are not by Hard Spun (whose foal blog I also run) although I'm looking foward to them as well.)

10. And Why Not (Street Cry (IRE))- Closing like a train in the Pocahontas, her pedigree says that she should handle 2 turns easily. Could turn out to be a good 1-2 punch for Michael Matz with her and Union Rags.

9. Caleb's Posse (Posse)- The possible 3yo Champion could even get better at 4. Should dominate the Dirt Mile division with some challenge from Shackleford (unless he stretches out again). I wouldn't even be suprised if he stretches out again either.

8. Hansen (Tapit)- Prob. not the likley Derby winner, but he hasn't done much wrong in his career so far. Could have a rematch with Union Rags in Florida.

7. Royal Delta (Empire Maker)- Before you say she's too low! The reason why she is ranked so low is, there are several horses in her own stable that I'm very excited about. That, and I'm not a fan of her new owner.

6. Shackleford (Forestry)- By far my favorite TC race winner from last year, he ran his heart out only to get beat by Caleb in the BC. Would be fun if they faced off at Oaklawn in the OakCap.

5. Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway)- This is a horse who is now being overshadowed a bit in his homestate. Would not be suprised if he wins the SA Derby.

4. Dullahan (Even the Score)- Sigh it's a flat out shame his brother is Mine That Bird. I really like this guy and he could turn out to be a special one. He has the right trainer to do it with.

3. To Honor and Serve (Bernardini) and Brillant Speed (Dynaformer)- Although they have the same owner, they are in two different stables. Could be a big year for Live Oak on dirt and turf if these two hold their 3yo form.

2. Now I Know (Pure Prize)- Could she suprise everyone by coming out of nowhere? It will be interesting how well she does on the Oaks trail.

1. Havre de Grace (Saint Liam)- What you where expecting someone else? It's amazing that she is coming back for her 5 year season. FHF could have easily decided to retire her (which in honestly if she had won the Classic I would have expected), but they didn't. She and her now retired rival gave the race of the year in the Delaware Handicap and then won the Woodward and beat Royal Delta in the Beldame. She is supposed to be at the Fair Grounds tomorrow getting ready for possibly a defence of her Apple Blossom title. Will be fun to see what this possible future HOY has in store for this year.

Happy New Year

2012-01-01T19:43:00.000-05:00

Hi all! Stakes posts and other things will be returning next week. I hope you all had a wonder holiday season!

Let foal watch for Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta begin!

Orfevre- Japan's Future Arc winner?

2011-12-29T17:10:00.000-05:00

It's been a year of highs and lows for Japan. The lows being the devastating earthquake and tsunami that caused nuclear reactor failures around the country. The highs being Victore Pisa and Transend's 1-2 finish in the Dubai World Cup, the Women's soccer team winning the World Cup (much to the chagrin of me since they defeated the US in the final), and Buena Vista's much desereved Japan Cup win (after she was DQ'ed the year before). However, for the first time since 2005 when Deep Impact was the Japanese superstar, a horse won all three legs of the Triple Crown. Orfevre made even more history on Christmas when he defeated the now retired Buena Vista in the season ending Arima Kinen.

Dubai is possibly next for the son of Stay Gold, but that is not the ultimate goal. The Japansese want to win the Arc. Nakayama Festa has been the closest Japan trained horse to the top spot (second in last year's Arc to Workforce), but no Japanese based runner has won (Danedream who is co-owned by Japanese interests is based in Germany) the race. It's too early to tell weather Orfevre can follow in the footsteps of Deep Impact, Vodka and Buena Vista and become a true international horse. One thing's for sure, he certinally has Japan buzzing about his exploits on home soil.

Previewing the 2012 Freshman Sire Class

2011-12-20T12:24:00.000-05:00

As deep as this year's group of Freshman sires where, next year's I can't really find a clear cut standout. Hard Spun and Street Sense where freshman sires this year, the final member of the "Big 3" Curlin will have his first crop his the track next year. He won't be alone either with several other nice horses including:

Brother Derek
Big Brown
Circular Quay
Cowtown Cat
Divine Park
Heatseeker
Henrythenavagator
Lewis Michael
Midnight Lute
Nobiz Like Shobiz
Raven's Pass
Red Giant
Showing Up (squee!!!)
Street Boss
Street Hero
Student Council

Much like Bernardini who suprised everyone by siring 3 2yo winning G1 winners, I'll be suprised if Curlin sires a G1 winner. Big Brown is going to have a tough time with such great turf horses like Showing, Nobiz, Red, Raven and Henry in the same crop. While Boss and Hero (with Hero's career being cut short) where nice horses, Lute should be okay in the sprint division. Derek and Student should put on a good showing for the milers. The others listed, I'm not 100% sure how well they will be do.

So who am I looking for to the most? My Stallions to watch this year are bit of the turfy side of things. I'm excited to see Showing Up, Red Giant, Nobiz Like Shobiz's first crop, along with Midnight Lute, Lewis Michael and Curlin.

Now go watch an unknown name be the Leading Freshman Stallion :P

Oaks and Derby Very Early Top Five

2011-12-18T20:59:00.000-05:00

Hard to believe, but we are only a little bit over four months away from the Oaks and Derby. It will be interesting who will be the top dog going into the preps which begin in mid-Jan/Early Feb. However, here are my top 5 for now for both the Derby and the Oaks.

Derby

1. Hansen (Tapit): A huge win over Union Rags in the Juvenile, he came out of Turfway of all places to become the best thing since well... Hanson's "Umm Bop". My one concern is that Tapit's tend to get a very fast start, but tend to tail off quickly.

2. Union Rags (Dixie Union): He got a bit of a crummy ride in the Juvenile, but showed that he could go a mile and a sixteenth. Not 100% sold that a mile and a quarter is his game, but we'll see what happens.

3. Liaison (Indian Charlie): Unlike the other IC colt that everyone was raving about last year and this year... this one has a bit of clout to him. His dam and granddam are both by Belmont winners (Victory Gallop and AP Indy), so the stamina is there. Of course he gets his speed from dad. That combo might be just enough to the finish line first. But then there is the soundness issue that Charlie has passed along, lets hope he stays that way.

4. Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway): A horse who maybe a wiseguy choice come Derby day. He'll have a tough time this winter going against Liaison and others such as Hierro. Right now, he's the horse who I would love to see to win the Derby the most.

5. Dullahan (Even the Score): Unlike his brother who shall remain nameless, Dullahan has run well in the BC finishing a closing fourth. While he won't be a Champion in Canada like big brother was as a 2yo, he could still have a chance on something that he missed out on, an Eclipse Championship.

Others Considered: Gemologist, Sabercat, Souper Speedy, O'Prado Again, Hierro

Oaks

1. Grace Hall (Empire Maker): Could she help get her dad home if she wins the Oaks next year? Prob. not, but with Weemissfrankie injured and My Miss Aurelia getting some time off as well she vaults into the #1 spot. Runner up in the BC Juvenile Fillies, she won the Spinaway then went back to her hometrack to win the Blue Hen before her race at Churchill. The 3yo Females in Florida could be the deepest in years, will be fun to see what happens.

2. Dixie Strike (Dixie Union): Prob. a Woodbine Oaks contender more then Kentucky, but I'm putting her here anyway. Her 1/2 sister is this year's Oaks/Queen's Plate winner Inglorious, who herself is by Hennesy so really a mile and eighth shouldn't be a big problem with her since her dam has not had a problem throwing distance horses with sprinter/miler stallions.

3. Now I Know (Pure Prize): Coming from OK, might work to her advantange. However, that could also be an disadvantage because she will now have to face horses of better quality. She'll have to pick up her game if she wants to hang with the big girls.

4. Questing (GB) (Hard Spun): Sure she was fifth in her US debut, but she's Group placed in England and she's remaining in the US to run as a 3yo. She's out of a Seeking the Gold mare, so the stamina is there. She'll give Grace Hall some fits if they face off against each other.

5. On Fire Baby (Smoke Glacken): We know she loves Churchill (2 for 2), and the Golden Rod has been a pretty good indicator on how well a horse does as a 3yo. The question is if she can get that extra sixteenth. I'm not sure on it, but alot of people didn't think Plum Pretty could either.

Others considered: Inny Minnie, Yvete Sangalo (MEX), Killer Graces, Disposablepleasure

Posts coming soon

2011-12-14T10:50:00.001-05:00

I should have some posts in the upcoming days. Sorry about that. :(

Race of the Year Countdown Preview

2011-12-04T19:56:00.000-05:00

Lets face it, this year was a bit of a downer compared to 2009 and 2010 which could go down as 2 of the greatest racing years ever. With that being said, there where some great races that took place throughout the year. Starting on Weds and going till December 16th there will be a countdown to what I think was the race of the year.

Since there are so many choices on Tuesday will be honorable mentions of three races that just missed the cut. Stay tuned for those!

TB Chat End of the Year Favorite Horses Awards

2011-11-29T18:02:00.000-05:00

With the year just about over, I thought it would be a good time to share my Favorite Horses Awards picks. Please note that these horses are not my Eclipse predictions, these are just horses who I like. If I where an Eclipse voter (which I'm not), I might choose as part of my ballot.

Favorite 2yo Filly Hard Not to Like (Hard Spun): Not only does she defeat the males twice, but she runs a good race in the Breeders' Cup. She could be a horse to rekon with up in Canada next year with their Classics.

Favorite 2yo Male Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway): Third behind Hansen and Union Rags, this colt could be a special one. Especially his connections decide to go to Oaklawn, dispite having some good preps in their own backyard.

Favorite 3yo Filly Royal Delta (Empire Maker) and Daisy Devine (Kafwain): Royal Delta just for the fact that she is a flat out monster and if she where to improve could give Havre de Grace a run for her money next year. I've been a fan of Daisy Devine's since her good finish behind Boquet Booth in the Silverbulletday. She and Summer Soiree are this years takes to turf like a duck takes to water.

Favorite 3yo Male Archarcharch (Arch): Yes he didn't run again past May, but frankley he remained my favorite 3yo this year. Yep that's how much I didn't like any (other then Shack, Caleb and Thirsty) of the 3yo's.

Favorite Older Female Havre de Grace (Saint Liam): I hope she joins her dad as a HOY this year. Her DelCap runner up finish against Blind Luck could go down as the race of the year.

Favorite Older Male Court Vision (Gulch): Yes he only won 1 race, yes he denied Goldikova a chance at a four peat, but this is FAVORITE horses, not the best horses around.

Favorite Horse of the Year: Havre de Grace

Oklahoma's Newest Darling?

2011-11-21T19:31:00.000-05:00

Lady's Secret and Kip Deville have three things in common: They where both greys, they both won a BC race and they where both born in Oklahoma. Now I Know meets two of these criteria. However, if she keeps winning, she could join these two in Oklahoma racing royality.

Much like the Iron Lady and Kip, her sire Pure Prize hails from racing royality. His sire Storm Cat is one of the greatest sires around (his final crop will be 3 next year), his dam Heavenly Prize was one of the best when she was running winning several Grade 1's including the John Morris (now the Personal Ensign), Apple Blossom among others. Pure Prize won the Kentucky Cup Classic before going to stud. Her dam Now U Know was unraced, but her sire Maria's Mon was an Eclipse Champion and has sired 2 Derby winners (Monarchos and Super Saver).

On Saturday, Now I Know won the Grade Three Delta Downs Princess Stakes defeating G1 placed Candrea, as well as Hard Spun fillies Inny Minnie and Yvete Sangalo. She had already defeated the latter in an allowance race before winning the Oklahoma Classics Lassie in her first stakes try.

Here is her DDP win:

It's too early to tell weather she is a filly that could do well on the Oaks trail. The good news is she will be wintering at Oaklawn which has had very good success lately with 2 of the last 4 Oaks winners having their final preps there, plus 1 Derby runner up. It will be interesting what happens to what could be a very special filly.

Z, Rach and Goldi talk

2011-11-16T20:25:00.000-05:00

*Location: Kentucky and France*

Zenyatta: I can't believe it's been a year since I retired! I remember like it was yesterday.
Rachel Alexandra: Me too! It doesn't seem like it's been two years since I defeated the boys.
Goldikova: WAAA!!!!!!!
Z and Rach: What's wrong?
Goldi: *sniffles* I lost my last race. Makes me sad since I lost to two boys!
Z: Don't feel so bad. I lost too.
Rach: Me too.
Goldi: Really? I lost to Court Vision. Who did you lose too?
Rach: Persistently. Oooh that name gives me the shivers.
Z: Blame for me. Makes me happy that Mike won this year with Drosselmeyer.
Rach: Goldi, don't beat yourself up about your loss.
Z: Agree, I mean every great horse ends their career with a loss. Just ask Zarkava.
Goldi: She never lost, I lost to her.
Rach: Okay then, how about Frankel?
Goldi: He hasn't lost either! WAAA!!!
Z (whispers to Rach): So what are we going to do?
Rach (who is looking something on her laptop that has her boyfriend Curlin as her wallpaper): Lets see. Got it!
Rach and Z: Sea the Stars!!!!
Goldi: He won his final race.
Rach and Z: Back to drawing board.

Yes I was bored and decided to do this. Regular posts return next week!

Did Juddmonte Jump Too Early?

2011-11-13T22:12:00.000-05:00

Juddmonte has had many great homebred horses. From Danehill to Workforce to the Hasili clan to Frankel. Their homebreds have been some of the greatest not only in Europe, but in the US as well. The question is, did they give up on the horse that they thought would win them the Derby too early in the shed? This past year has been a banner year for the Unbrided stallion Empire Maker, and he's enjoying his foals success in Japan.

Sure he technically was a failure for Juddmonte as their horses didn't have the success their sire had when he was running in 2002 and 2003. Still, he sired G1 winners in Country Star, Pioneerof the Nile, and Acoma for other connections.

Then along comes the Delta duo of your most likely 3yo Filly Champion Royal Delta and her little brother Empire Way. Out of the AP Indy mare Delta Princess, Royal Delta had a fantatic season after getting off to a slow start and overcoming an injury that kept her out of the Mother Goose. Still, she returned to deny It's Tricky the Triple Tiara in the Alabama. After a second place finish behind Havre de Grace in the Beldame which was her first start against older horses, she won the Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic to most likely cinch those honors. In the process it started a big weekend for her trainer Bill Mott as he won the Classic the next day with Drosselmeyer.

Earlier this week, Royal Delta was sold for more then 8 million dollars to Belislu Stables (who also picked up Balance's first foal last year). As of right now, she is expected to return as a four year, but her trainer has not been decided yet. Does she stay with Mott? Or does she switch to her new owners trainer Todd Pletcher? Only time will tell.

Today 2yo Empire Way won at Hollywood in his first start. However, he did wear front bandages which could be a concern down the road. If he stays healthy and continues to move foward, he could be a horse with a serious chance on the Derby trail. We know the mile and quarter distance won't be a problem being by a Belmont winner out of a AP Indy mare who has already produced a full sister whose won at the distance.

Delta Princess also went through the ring (she and Royal Delta's owner passed away earlier this year, they went through the Keeneland sale ring as part of a dispersal) going for over 2 million in foal to Classic winning sire (and the sire to the horse who denyed Empire Maker the Derby) Distorted Humor to Adena Springs.

Those two are just gut checks, add in a third horse named Charm the Maker who won the Sharp Cat today.

Unfortanlly, we have to remeber that there are two parts of horse racing. Both are business and if a stallion is failing for the stallion owner, then well there might be an offer elsewhere (I'm not sure how well Empire Maker foals where doing in Japan before he was sold to stand there).

Currently two stallions are at Juddmonte's US farm. Mizzen Mast whose a turf longdistance specialist with some success and freshman stallion sprinter First Defence whose out of a half sister to Empire Maker. You have to wonder if they sent away the wrong stallion?

Eclipse Ballot Predictions

2011-11-08T18:39:00.000-05:00

Note these are just predicting on who will be on the Finalist ballot when it comes out in early January. These aren't my offical predictions, those will be out when the Finalist ballot comes out. These are not in alphabetical order.

2yo Male: Union Rags, Hansen, Creative Cause
2yo Female: Weemissfrankie, Grace Hall, My Miss Aurelia
3yo Male: Animal Kingdom, Caleb's Posse, Shackleford
3yo Female: Royal Delta, It's Tricky, Plum Pretty
Older Male: Acclamation, Game On Dude, Tizway
Older Female: Havre de Grace, Blind Luck, Ask the Moon
Male Sprinter: Amazombie, Giant Ryan, Caleb's Posse
Female Sprinter: Musical Romance, Switch, Turbulent Descent
Turf Male: St. Nicolas Abbey, Cape Blanco, Acclamation
Turf Female: Stacielita, Winter Memories, Perfect Shirl

We'll see if I'm right.

Winners and Losers of the BC

2011-11-05T20:13:00.001-04:00

Winner- Canada: Stephanie's Kitten who prepped for her Alcibides win in the Natalma won the Juvenile Fillies Turf, Hard Not to Like did well finishing fifth, but the ace in the hole was Perfect Shirl who broke the Euro hearts to take the F/M Turf. The two downsides Northern Passion stunk up the place in the Juvenile Fillies and Finale did the same in the Juvenile Turf. Plus Regally Ready who also prepped at Woodbine won the Turf Sprint, the past two Woodbine Mile winners Court Vision and Tullare where 1-2 in the Mile in the upset of Goldikova.

Winner- Bill Mott and Mike Smith- Over 10 years ago Bill had one of the best horses to ever hit the track in Cigar. He wins both the Ladies Classic and Classic this year. Mike of course rode won of the greatest in Zenyatta to heart breaking runner up finish and redeems himself in this year's Classic. He also won the Sprint with Amazombie.

Loser- The Factor: UGH what overrated horse.

Loser- Mike Repole: Just go away please. Uncle Mo overrated, no excuse for Stopshoppingmaria, what the f happend to Stay Thirsty.

Winner- Saddler's Wells: Last year two legendary sires Kris S. and Danzig had great two days, this year? It's a third legendary sire, his great granddaughter Stephanie's Kitten (through grandson Kitten's Joy), granddaughter Perfect Shirl (through son Perfect Soul), and grandson Wrote (through son High Chapperal) all won BC races.

Winner- Slewacide: It's a shame all of his sons where geldings. Picked up his second major grandson in Caleb's Posse (of course Funny Cide being the first).

Winner and Loser- Joseph O'Brien: My dad and I didn't have the greatest relationship. That's not the case for Turf winning jockey (St. Nicholas Abbey) whose father is of course the one and only Aiden O'Brien. At 18 she is the youngest jockey to win a Breeders' Cup race. Why the loser? Unfortanlly due to him being 5' 11'', his weight will catch up to him. Which is why this might be the greatest win of his career, since he time is limited. My guess is he'll either head to being a jump jockey or become an asst. to his dad's stable. ESPN was comparing him to Steve Cauthen who was the same age Joseph was when he won the Triple Crown on Affirmed.

Winner- Mark Boylan: Speaking of Irish teenagers, this singer-songwriter had a trip of a lifetime to the US to sing his BC inspired song "Stateside". He's not that bad, but has room for improvement.

Winner- Distorted Humor: What you thought I was going to leave the hunky Forty Niner son out? Of course not, shocks the world with the Derby in 03 and does again with Drosselmeyer in the Classic.

Winner- Chantal Sutherland and Emma-Jayne Wilson: The two Canadian born jockeys lost nothing in defeat in their races. Chantal lost to her ex-fiance in the Classic, while Emma was an awesome second in the Juvenile Turf. Add in the very talented Rosie Napravnik and I think Julie Krone has left a very legacy for female jockeys.

Loser- Euro horses on dirt: Ugh! One horse was eased, and the best finish I think was 4th in the Juvenile Fillies. So You Think didn't show much in the Classic.

Winner- Goldikova and Havre de Grace: Niether lost any respect in defeat. Look both where up against it this year. Goldi is off to the breeding shed to see most likely Galieo (her sis Galikova is by him, hopefully we see her next year for the F/M Turf), while Grace is expected to return next year.

Loser- Girls: Males returned to dominance this year winning all of the open races. The best finish for a filly was in the Juvenile Sprint.

So that's it! I'll have my Eclipse predictions in a few days.

BC Friday Live Blog

2011-11-04T11:45:00.002-04:00

Hey guys, I will be updating this post throughout the day with the results for each BC race. Check back in soon for these updates as the day progresses. Good luck to all and save travels for horses and jockeys!

3:32 pm- about a half hour to go until the BC Juvy Sprint. Really hope Seeker does well, Secret Circle is the horse to beat.

6:02 pm- Boy I've suck! Sorry all, Secret Circle, Stephanie's Kitten, Musical Romance have won so far. Juvy Fillies on the track.