Inventory of single family homes in San Carlos oscillated around the 50 mark all week.  It went as low as 47 early in the week, and as high as 51.  But homes are going into contract at about the same rate as new ones are coming on the market, so it’s a very challenging environment for buyers right now, and it will remain that way until the inventory gets a bit bigger.

Here’s a snapshot of the San Carlos market, as of 11/7. The previous week’s stats are in parentheses:

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What Sold in San Carlos

Below are homes that sold this past week in San Carlos. Click on the respective addresses to get all the details.

1653 Gover Lane, San Carlos

1653 Gover Lane

• Pictured Above — Sale Price: $985,000. Original List Price: $988,000. Difference: $3,000 (0.3%) below original list. DOM: 15 Days under current MLS # 80946109. Listed by William McQuaid of Cashin Company.

2720 Eaton Avenue

• Sale Price: $975,000. Original List Price: $989,000. Difference: $14,000 (1.4%) below original list. DOM: 12 Days under current MLS #80944962. Listed by Justine Ford of RE/MAX Today.

88 Hilltop Drive

• Sale Price: $849,000. Original List Price: $869,888. Difference: $20,888 (2.4%) below original list. DOM: 13 Days under current MLS #80944962. Listed by Steve Eldgridge of RE/MAX Today.

1951 Arroyo Avenue

• Sale Price: $720,000. Original List Price: $725,000. Difference: $5,000 (0.7%) below original list. DOM: 27 Days under current MLS #80948183. Listed by Debbie Wilhelm of Coldwell Banker.

(Click this button to see all of the homes that have sold in San Carlos in the past 3 months.)

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Homes Pending Sale in San Carlos

The following homes went “Pending Sale” this week — click on the address for more info:

• 18 Coleman Ct, after 332 days on the market.
• 2120 Eaton Ave, after 5 days.
• 1421 Hull Dr, 11 days.
• 2036 Alma St, 8 days.
• 3481 La Mesa Dr, 89 days.

(Click this button to see all the homes that are Pending Sale in San Carlos.)

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New Listings in San Carlos

Below are the new listings that hit the market this past week in San Carlos. Simply click on the address of each home to get all the details.

288 Club Drive, San Carlos

288 Club Drive

• Pictured Above:  $1,295,000– 2BR/5BA, 4,250 sq ft on a 15,681 square foot lot    MLS# 80952202, listed by James Shin of RE/MAX Accord.  (editor’s note:  MLS states that it’s a 2BR/5BA, but in the agent notes it’s specified as a 4BR/3.5BA)

3005 Brittan Avenue

• $924,000 – 3BR/2BA, 1,900 sq ft on a 8,176 square foot lot. MLS# 80952557, listed by Judi Matlack of Alain Pinel Realtors.

2043 Saint Francis Way

• $899,000 – 3BR/2BA, 1,493 sq ft on a 4,440 square foot lot. MLS# 80952581, listed by Sherry Cottonaro of Cashin Company.

2056 Arroyo Avenue

• $800,000 – 3BR/1BA, 1,290 sq ft on a 5,000 square foot lot. MLS# 80952587, listed by Kathy & Colleen of Coldwell Banker.

(Click this button to see ALL of the homes currently for sale in San Carlos.)

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Open Houses in San Carlos

(Click this button to see ALL of the open houses scheduled for this weekend in San Carlos.)

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(The “San Carlos Week in Review” series is a summary of new listings and home sales in San Carlos for the prior week.)

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It’s not necessarily news when businesses change in San Carlos.   But when one business’ demise opens up a prime store front on the booming north section of Laurel Street… well, that’s news.   Such is the case with the imminent closing of Blockbuster Video’s downtown San Carlos location.  When Blockbuster completes its exodus from San Carlos, one of the few corner parcels on Laurel Street will be up for grabs.

In a town already flush with restaurants and bars,  it would come as no surprise if some dining entrepreneur is licking his chops to set up shop in the shadow of  the very successful Town Restaurant, which is just across the street.

What do YOU think?

What business do you think will take over this location?  What would most benefit downtown San Carlos right now?  Do we already have enough bars and restaurants, or is there room for another?

Got an idea or opinion?  Share it with everyone by leaving a comment!

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Hey, while we’re on the unpleasant topic of money and budgets, this little nugget of information came to light today:   The San Carlos School District announced on its website this morning that it will be forced to cut $1.4M from the 2010-11 school year budget, with the likelihood that these cuts will extend into the following school year as well.  That’s a BIG ouch.  While it’s no secret that budget cuts were coming (even with the passage of Measure B) the amount of $1.4M is far greater than the board anticipated…and may likely come with some unpleasant downsides.

What Happened?

According to the SCSD website, there are four contributing factors to the latest budget crisis:

• Additional cuts from the State of California.
• Lower enrollment than was projected when the budget was approved in June.
• Slightly higher staffing costs.
• Accounting error during the budget process.

The “accounting error” is discussed in much greater detail on the District website, so I won’t do it any injustice by trying to explain it here.  But it’s worth noting that this “error” accounts for $900K of the projected $1.4M shortfall.   That’s no small error.

What’s Next?

The District is taking immediate steps to cut costs, both in the current school year and for next year’s projections.   This includes possible “targeted staff reductions” which is something they desperately hoped to avoid with the passage of Measure B.    But it’s hard to see how that’s not going to happen now.

For those of you who are vehemently opposed to increased taxes of any kind, be forewarned that there will be a renewed interest in extending Measure D, the initial School Parcel Tax that was the predecessor to Measure B.    There will likely be more information to come out of the district in the coming months, but one thing is clear — this is a BIG deal, and we haven’t seen the other shoe drop yet.

For more information, check out the full story on the District website:  San Carlos School District website.

11/5 Update:  Additional news coverage.

Here’s an article in the Daily Journal that picks up a bit more detail on the situation:

Accounting Error Leads to School Budget Loss

(Thanks to blog reader Tom Jones for the tip on this story)

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In a result that closely matched what the poll on this site predicted, San Carlos Measure U was defeated in yesterday’s election. According to the official San Mateo County vote tracker, the final tally came in as follows:

• NO:  55.7%
• YES: 44.3%

For the “semi-official” results of this ballot measure, as well as everything else that was voted on yesterday in San Mateo County, click here:

San Mateo County Election Results

What’s the next step for San Carlos?

That’s obviously the big question.  What’s clear is that the City still faces a budget deficit that needs to be resolved.  How that’s going to happen without the aid of additional sales tax revenue will undoubtedly be the subject of some very interesting discussions at City Hall.

For additional coverage on the election, including commentary by a few of the Council members, click on the article below:

Daily Journal Election Coverage

11/5 UPDATE:  Fallout from the Election.

Several news articles are carrying interviews with City Council on what the next steps are after the defeat of Measure U.  In both articles, layoffs and park closures are forgone conclusions    Read both of these for more information:

San Jose Mercury News: Deeper Cuts are Imminent

Daily Journal: Taxes Fail

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“It’s all over but the voting.”

After months of contentious debate, the proposed 0.5% sale tax increase that we know as Measure U is now in the hands of the San Carlos voters.   And if the results of the poll below mean anything, every vote is going to matter when this Measure is decided:

When the Measure U poll was first opened on this site, it appeared that this measure would be soundly defeated.  The “No” votes spiked as high as 65% early on, but with over 200 votes now logged on this poll, it’s clearly a much tighter race.

It struck a nerve.

Whether it’s the prospect of facing even more taxes, the possibility of losing vital services, or questioning whether our leaders have done enough to cut cost in the City budget, this debate has gone far deeper than just being two quarters on a $100 purchase.  From the 106+ comments that were logged on this site, it has become a battleground on principle as much as it is about the money.

Vote!

Not only is Measure U to be decided, but Measure V and the election of two positions on the Sequoia Union High School District Board are at stake as well.   (On the latter note, I hope Virginia Chang Kiraly and Alan Sarver are successful in their quest — they would be excellent additions to the school board.)  So be sure to vote in this election — because in this election, every vote will make a difference!

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After several weeks of mostly new listings being sold, it’s nice to see some of the older listings finally getting into contract and closing escrow.  As we discussed last week, it’s vital in this market for ALL of the inventory to turn, not just a few of the new listings.   Inventory this past week dipped as low as 47 active listings, but it ended up back at 51.  Better, but still very low.

Here’s a snapshot of the San Carlos market, as of 10/31. The previous week’s stats are in parentheses:

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What Sold in San Carlos

Below are homes that sold this past week in San Carlos. Click on the respective addresses to get all the details.

227 Rockridge Road, San Carlos

227 Rockridge Road

• Pictured Above — Sale Price: $1,413,750. Original List Price: $1,499,800. Difference: $86,050 (5.7%) below original list. DOM: 167 Days under current MLS # 80914231.   Originally started on the market in April ‘08 under a different brokerage at $1,795,000.  Listed by Bernadette Casey of Coldwell Banker.

3261 Melendy Drive

• Sale Price: $1,238,555. Original List Price: $1,199,950. Difference: $38,605 (3.2%) above original list. DOM: 13 Days under current MLS #80943977. Listed by Dave Blewett of Intero Real Estate Services.

938 Lupin Way

• Sale Price: $917,000. Original List Price: $998,938. Difference: $81,938 (8.2%) below original list. DOM: 88 Days under current MLS # 80930065. Listed by Sue Walsh of Cashin Company.

121 Sunnydale Avenue

• Sale Price: $899,000. Original List Price: $899,000. Difference: $0 from original list. DOM: 6 Days under current MLS # 80944738. Listed by Kelly Clarke of Cashin Company.

1613 Greenwood Avenue

• Sale Price: $835,000. Original List Price: $879,000. Difference: $44,000 (5.0%) below original list. DOM: 32 Days under current MLS # 80941639. Listed by Michael Bruno of Cal-West Realty.

1341 Magnolia Avenue

• Sale Price: $675,000. Original List Price: $699,000. Difference: $24,000 (3.4%) below original list. DOM: 23 Days under current MLS #80943443. Listed by Bob Hintz of RE/MAX Today.

(Click this button to see all of the homes that have sold in San Carlos in the past 3 months.)

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Homes Pending Sale in San Carlos

The following homes went “Pending Sale” this week — click on the address for more info:

• 256 Timothy Dr, after 24 days on the market.
• 2801 Eaton Ave, after 140 days.
• 2335 Saint Francis Way, 12 days.
• 1925 Greenwood Ave, 170 days

(Click this button to see all the homes that are Pending Sale in San Carlos.)

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New Listings in San Carlos

Below are the new listings that hit the market this past week in San Carlos. Simply click on the address of each home to get all the details.

2036 Alma Street

• $1,295,000– 3BR/1BA, 1,320 sq ft on a 9,000 square foot lot. MLS# 80951477, listed by Bob Bredel of RE/MAX Today.

21 Anchor Lane

• $1,099,000 – 5BR/5BA, 3,090 sq ft on a 9,000 square foot lot. MLS# 80951525, listed by Eda Diridon of Carlmont Associates.

3024 Brittan Avenue

• $937,500 – 3BR/2BA, 2,085 sq ft on a 15,400 square foot lot. MLS# 80951478, listed by Antonia Lindsey of Cashin Company.

119 Chesham Avenue

• $868,500– 3BR/2BA, 1,870 sq ft on a 5,225 square foot lot. MLS# 80951527, listed by Laura Bertolacci of RE/MAX Today.

2120 Eaton Avenue

• $799,950– 3BR/2BA, 1,610 sq ft on a 8,250 square foot lot. MLS# 80951321, listed by Robert Guglielmi of SC Properties.

1421 Hull Drive

• $729,000– 2BR/1BA, 1,130 sq ft on a 6,930 square foot lot. MLS# 80950739, listed by Chet Lane of Prudential California Realty.

(Click this button to see ALL of the homes currently for sale in San Carlos.)

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Open Houses in San Carlos

(Click this button to see ALL of the open houses scheduled for this weekend in San Carlos.)

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(The “San Carlos Week in Review” series is a summary of new listings and home sales in San Carlos for the prior week.)

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News is spreading today that both houses of Congress have passed a resolution which will keep the higher conforming loan limits in place through 2010, and is now pending President Obama’s signature.  The current loan limit extension was set to expire at the end of this year.    If this comes to pass, this will be great news for home buyers in higher-priced regions such as the San Francisco Bay Area, since it will keep the conforming loan limit at $729,950.

Since the loan limit was temporarily increased in 2008, it has easily become the most popular loan written by the major lenders in this area, even for properties selling north of $1M.  As I have stated numerous times in this blog, I believe it has been the most effective stimulus act that has been put in place, by far.  Here’s a post with some additional details:

Conforming Loan Limits Extended Through 2010

This is extremely good news for buyers and sellers alike, and should serve to keep the current market momentum going into the new year.

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Craigslist has become the defacto standard for connecting people who are renting out their property with people who are looking for a place to live.  And for good reason:  It’s free, and it has phenomenal readership both here in the Bay Area and throughout the country.   Because of this, folks have almost become conditioned to look in Craigslist first when they need to find a rental property.   Sellers are finding that it’s so easy to find a boilerplate rental agreement on the internet that they don’t need a Realtor to help them rent out their property — frankly, I don’t think a Realtor adds much value in these transactions anymore.

So for quite awhile, this method of renting out property has worked incredibly well for all involved.   But like any business where there’s money being exchanged, you’re bound to find thieves and scammers, and they’ve now targeted the rental market with their latest ploy.

Here’s the scam.

Realtors use the internet extensively to advertise the properties that they have listed.  Whether it’s MLSlistings.com, Realtor.com, or even Craigslist,  all of the pictures and descriptions you need to better understand the property are right there for everyone to see.   Unfortunately, it’s ridiculously easy to copy these photos and descriptions from these websites, and scammers have devised a way to make money with this info.

Basically, they find a property online that’s listed for sale and steal the pictures and descriptions to create a phony ad claiming that they’re offering the very same property for rent, usually at an incredibly low price.   They claim to be out-of-town owners, or they’re leaving town due to a family emergency (etc…) so they’re not able to show you the property, and they’re urgent to rent the property out right away (hence the great price.)   Since they’re not local, they’ll ask you to fill out a very basic rental agreement and send them a check to cover the first few months of rent.    Once they get the application and the money, a “family friend” or someone else will meet you at the property to give you the keys  (you can see where this is going..)

The excited renters show up at the property to pick up the keys, only to find a “For Sale” sign on the property.    The unsuspecting listing agent who gets the next phone call has no idea what the duped renter is talking about….  Bottom line, there’s no home for rent, and the money is gone.   Sounds pretty lame, but this very scam is happening right now and it has victimized people not only in the bay area, but all across the country.   I first found out about it through discussions with other APR agents, and then saw this post on a prominent RE blog in Minnesota.

Buyer Beware..

Obviously, a little dose of common sense goes a long way here:

• NEVER rent a property sight-unseen.  Insist on seeing the property and meeting the owner or Realtor (if it’s being rented through an agent.)
• Don’t mail money in advance of seeing the property.
• Do a quick check on the MLS to ensure that the same property isn’t already listed for sale.

One certainly can’t blame Craigslist for this.  They provide and excellent service and they usually do what they can to curb fraud on their site.  But whether it’s a rental scam, or an exiled Nigerian prince who needs your bank account number to deposit his fortune, there’s always someone out there ready to separate you from your money.  Proceed with caution!

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The economy hasn’t been tough only on homeowners in San Carlos. Local businesses are also feeling the pain — so much so that two local and very visible merchants in San Carlos have decided to pull up stake and close their doors. The first of these is Blockbuster Video on Laurel Street. Citing an “ailing economy” as the cause, Blockbuster is closing a significant number of their stores, including the San Carlos location.  One could argue that their business model is as much to blame for their downfall, as they compete in the rental market against the 800-pound gorilla Netflix. The internet must be taking a huge bite out of their business, too – virtually every television show and most movies can be streamed on the internet. Driving to a store to pick up a DVD just isn’t happening anymore.

Blockbuster hasn’t given a specific date when they will officially close their doors, but they are no longer renting videos from this location and they’re aggressively trying to liquidate their remaining inventory.

Another local business will soon be history is the Game Crazy outlet that shares space with Hollywood Video in the Home Depot parking lot. They announced their intent to shut this location down a few months back, and they are within days of closing their doors for good in San Carlos.   I figured my kids spent enough money there to keep that place afloat, but I was wrong. 

It will be interesting to see how this prolonged recession will change the face of San Carlos business.      The unique collection of family-owned businesses is one of the key things that gives downtown San Carlos its charm.   I hope they’re hanging in there.

(Special thanks to blog reader Cisco Villalta for the tip on this article…)

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Anyone who is shopping for a home right now in San Carlos (or for that matter anywhere on the mid-Peninsula) knows that there’s just not much to choose from right now. Consider these sobering facts about the San Carlos market:

• Current Inventory of Single Family Residences for Sale:  47 homes.
  
• Average Days on the Market (DOM) for these 47:  121 days.
• Average Days on Market of the past 25 homes to go into contract in San Carlos:  34 days.
• % of these 47 homes that have been on the market for less than 34 days:  23%

What does this tell you?  First, there are two distinct markets in San Carlos — homes that sell, and homes that don’t.   That in itself is nothing earth shattering — every community has its dividing line.  But the disparity between the two in San Carlos is alarming.   Roughly 23% of the inventory is actually selling, whereas 77% of the homes for sale right now are those you can safely assume every potential buyer has already seen and has voted with their feet.   That’s an amazingly big chunk of stale inventory, especially or a vibrant market like San Carlos.

What’s causing this?  It certainly isn’t a lack of interested and qualified buyers.    Look at recent home sales stats on this site for the past month — I can safely tell you that most of the homes that have sold in San Carlos in the past month saw multiple offers.  There are pre-approved buyers looking all over the Peninsula to purchase a home right now.  No, it’s the lack of decent inventory in the hot sub-$1M market segment that’s causing insane buying behavior that’s reminiscent of 2005.  But more important, this dearth of inventory both here in San Carlos and in other Peninsula communities, threatens to squash whatever rally this market is trying to muster up.

That’s where the “shadow inventory” comes into play..

What is Shadow Inventory?

“Shadow inventory” is the moniker that’s given to the ever-increasing stockpile of homes that the bank has reclaimed through foreclosure, but has not yet put back on the market for sale.  I have spoken with several agents who have contracts with the bank to list the bank’s foreclosed properties, and even they don’t know how big this inventory is ….but they all agree that it’s a “significant” number.   This stands to reason — there have been far more foreclosures than there have been REO listings.  That means the banks are hoarding an inventory of foreclosed homes that must be sold at some point — but nobody seems to know how many will be sold and when.

In my opinion, now would be a great time.

Normally, you’d want to shy away from hitting any market with a sudden surge of inventory.  But there are so many more buyers in the sub-$1M range than there are choices, that this market could easily absorb such a surge.

What’s the impact on San Carlos?   Since the number of foreclosures in San Carlos is low relative to other communities, the impact on this market will be more indirect.  Not every buyer who is looking in San Carlos is doing so exclusively, so by giving that group of buyers some options in nearby cities it may help provide much needed balance in this market.

I’m sure the banks have a time-line as to when they will release the next wave of REO properties for sale.  I just hope it’s sooner rather than later….

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