The power of 15000 horses

2012 likely and wishlist

noreply@blogger.com (Dominic J) — Sat, 03 Sep 2011 14:04:00 +0000

Self-explanatory title to this post, so straight to the grid predictions:

Red Bull: Vettel, Webber
McLaren: Hamilton, Button
Ferrari: Alonso, Massa
Mercedes: Rosberg, Schumacher
(quick note: when did the top 4 teams last run identical lineups 3 years running?)
Renault: Kubica, Petrov (unless Kubica unfit, otherwise Senna or Grosjean)
Sauber: Kobayashi, Perez
Force India: Sutil, Di Resta
Toro Rosso: Ricciardo, Alguersuari
Williams: Maldonado, Senna (or Sutil if Senna at Renault)
Lotus: Kovaleinen, Trulli
Hispania: Liuzzi, Grosjean
Virgin: Glock, van der Garde

Put simply, not many changes. Having made that set of predictions, below I'll list my preferred grid:

Red Bull: Vettel, Rosberg
McLaren: Hamilton, Button
Ferrari: Alonso, Kobayashi
Mercedes: Schumacher, Di Resta
Renault: Kubica, Webber
Sauber: Massa, Perez
Force India: Kovaleinen, Hulkenberg
Toro Rosso: Ricciardo, Senna
Williams: Barrichello, Maldonado
Lotus: Massa, Vergne
Hispania: Alguersuari, Sutil
Virgin: Glock, Grosjean

2011 test/reserve drivers

noreply@blogger.com (Dominic J) — Mon, 22 Nov 2010 21:11:00 +0000

There is naturally less information and speculation about reserve drivers, but for at least two teams it could be an interesting prospect, namely Mercedes (in case Schumacher retires/doesn't like Pirelli tyres) and Toro Rosso (whose drivers are rumoured to have 6 month contracts with performance targets to stay in the sport).

With this in mind, I thought I'd list the drivers in the frame:

Red Bull: Daniel Ricciardo (current reserve, did all the "young driver" tests for the team)
McLaren: Gary Paffett, Oliver Turvey (Paffet, 29, has been in this role for several years)
Ferrari: Jules Bianchi (highly rated and shares a manager with Felipe Massa)
Mercedes: Nico Hulkenberg/Anthony Davidson (rumours that the German could find a job, if no seat is forthcoming, otherwise Davidson might resume the role he first held since the BAR days)
Renault: Jerome D'Ambrosio (if he doesn't get a Virgin drive)
Williams: presumably someone rich (or Dean Stoneman, winner of Formula 2 this year)
Force India: Paul di Resta (if they don't give him a drive, perhaps Liuzzi if he's dropped)
Sauber: Esteban Gutierrez (brings Carlos Slim's money with him, alongside race driver Sergio Perez)
Toro Rosso: Daniel Ricciardo (presumably)
Louts: Money McDollar
Virgin: see Lotus (or Jerome D'Ambrosio)
Hispania: see Virgin (or Christian Klien)

2011 grid - 21/11/2010 edition

noreply@blogger.com (Dominic J) — Sun, 21 Nov 2010 20:35:00 +0000

Car numbers tbc, drivers in CAPS confirmed in their teams.

Red Bull: 1 VETTEL, 2 WEBBER
McLaren: 3 HAMILTON, 4 BUTTON
Ferrari: 5 ALONSO, 6 MASSA
Mercedes: 7 SCHUMACHER, 8 ROSBERG (assuming Schumi's odd-number superstition holds)
Renault: 9 KUBICA, 10 Petrov (Rumours also of Sutil, Heidfeld, Glock and Ricciardo)
Williams: 11 BARRICHELLO, 12 Maldonado (tbc but almost certain)
Force India: 14 Sutil 15 Di Resta (Sutil looking elsewhere, Liuzzi, Chandhok and Hulkenberg also linked)
Sauber: 16 KOBAYASHI, 17 PEREZ
Toro Rosso: 18 BUEMI, 19 ALGUERSUARI
Lotus: 20 KOVALEINEN, 21 Trulli (possibly Heidfeld or Hulkenberg)
Hispania: 22 De La Rosa, 23 Senna (no certainties here, possibly Hulkenberg, Maldonado, Ricciardo, Petrov, Yamamoto, Klien, Chandhok or anyone with enough sponsorship)
Virgin: 24 Glock, 25 D'Ambrosio (Di Grassi, Petrov, Hulkenberg or any of the above who still need a drive.

That leaves 9 unconfirmed seats, but only 4 in good cars. 2 of these look likely to go to Di Resta and Maldonado and another (Renault or Force India) to Sutil, leaving the other Renault or Force India seat between Petrov (money), Liuzzi (2011 contract, supposedly), Glock (best unsigned of the new team drivers), Chandhok (Indian) or Hulkenberg (best prospect amongst the group). Your guess, however, is as good as mine.

For the 5 remaining "new team" seats we have all the drivers listed above, the drivers currently in the seats, any number of GP2 graduates with financial backing and the potential for Hispania to pick a Spaniard.

This weekends battles

noreply@blogger.com (Dominic J) — Wed, 10 Nov 2010 01:00:00 +0000

You may have heard about the fight for the drivers' title and I detail a short version of the permutations below, but that isn't the only thing up for grabs. The prize money in F1 is determined by constructors' championship position and there are some places up for grabs, some more so than others.

Drivers:
Realistically, drivers only care about winning titles. Having a 4th, an 8th or a 14th on your CV doesn't matter much, compared to one place higher or lower. Therefore I will only analyse the title hunt:

Alonso will win if:

He finishes 1st or 2nd
Webber finishes 2nd and Alonso finishes 4th (assuming Vettel wins) or 5th (otherwise)

Webber will win if:

He finishes 1st AND Alonso does not finish 2nd
He finishes 2nd AND Vettel does not win AND Alonso finishes 6th or lower

Vettel will win if:

He finishes 1st AND Alonso finishes 5th or lower
He finishes 2nd AND Alonso finishes 9th or lower AND Webber finishes 5th or lower

Hamilton will win if:

He wins AND Alonso does not score AND Webber finishes 6th or lower AND Vettel finishes 3rd or lower

Constructors:

Ferrari need to gain 32 points on McLaren (assuming a win) or a 2-3 finish with McLaren scoring no points at all to finish 2nd
Force India must outscore Williams by 2 points or by 1 if they achieve a 4th place finish to secure 6th, UNLESS
Sauber must outscore Force India by 24 points and Williams by 25 to join the battle for 6th
Toro Rosso must outscore Sauber by 33 points to finish 8th
Lotus, Virgin or Hispania must outscore Toro Rosso by 11 points to finish 9th
In the fight for 10th place Lotus will win UNLESS either Virgin or Hispania secure a top 11 finish
There is no prize money for 11th, so it doesn't matter much that Virgin require a 13th place finish or better to overtake Hispania

End of season report cards - Sauber and Toro Rosso

noreply@blogger.com (Dominic J) — Tue, 09 Nov 2010 18:00:00 +0000

Since this year's midfield (Mercedes, Renault, Williams, Force India, Sauber and Toro Rosso) do not conveniently split into two equally sized groups (at time of writing 1 point separates Williams from Force India in the fight for 6th place in the constructors' championship). I am therefore dividing the group into 3 and write my season-reviews for the Sauber and Toro Rosso drivers here:

After each driver's name I will list their points total, their percentage of the team total (for races in which they drove) and their best three results.

Sauber:

Kamui Kobayashi: 32 points, 73%, 6th Britain, 7th Europe, 7th Japan
Kamui startled observers in his 2 races for Toyota at the end of last season, with aggresive driving against several of the sport's biggest names. He has repeated that this year, to a lesser extent. He has also completely outdriven Pedro De La Rosa, presumably forcing the Spaniard back into retirement, despite his many years as McLaren's favourite test driver. His standout performance was in Valencia, where he was on a contrarian strategy and ran in 3rd position for most of the race before a late pitstop and some desperate/delightful overtaking manouevres secured him 7th place from 18th on the grid.

Pedro De La Rosa: 6 points, 22%, 7th Hungary, 11th Belgium, 11th Turkey
Pedro had the worst start to the season of any driver in terms of reliability. He was unfortunate to be unable to start the Malaysian Grand Prix from 12th on the grid. Nothing, however, will spare him from the accusation that he was comprehensively outdone by a driver of little pre-F1 pedigree. He was therefore replaced by Nick Heidfeld after the Italian Grand Prix. Sauber's revival since this date also undermines his claim to be an excellent development driver.

Nick Heidfeld: 6 points, 35%, 8th Japan, 9th Korea, 17th Brazil
Despite having already run out of fresh engines before he even took the seat, Nick has more-or-less matched his teammate in his 4 races to date. The differences between the drivers can be put down to better/riskier strategies that have paid of for Kamui. He has probably done enough to prove that he is good enough for a senior race seat, but sadly, like many drivers, he doesn't bring the money that is needed for so many of them. It looks like he'll leave F1 with two records: most consecutive races without retiring (2008-9) and most starts without a race victory.

Toro Rosso:

Sebastien Buemi: 8 points, 73%, 8th Canada, 9th Valencia, 10th Monaco and Japan
Sebastien has been fairly anonymous all season, bar the occasional contact with other drivers. He has certainly outperformed his teammate, which is the first thing to do in Formula 1, but he hasn't shown anything exceptional that proves he should stay in the sport, given the stable of Red Bull drivers who would love his seat. Must do better.

Jaime Alguersuari: 3 points, 27%, 9th Malaysia, 10th Monaco, 11th five times
Thanks in part to superb reliability (only two retirements) Jaime holds the distinction of finishing just outside the points most frequently. Indeed he has more top-11 finishes than his teammate, but such things count for absolutely nothing in Formula 1. Given how well the season started, the lack of experience throughout the team (which has only recently been forced to design its own cars), perhaps the team needs some more experienced drivers, who could develop the cars throughout the season. Still very young, but may soon be another driver with "an excellent future behind him" (see also Jan Magnussen, Tommy Byrne, Anthony Davidson, Markus Winkelhock inter alia)

End of season driver report cards - tailenders

noreply@blogger.com (Dominic J) — Thu, 04 Nov 2010 17:00:00 +0000

I know the season hasn't yet finished, but feel enough time has passed to begin characterising the performance of the new teams' drivers. This is the first of 4 reviews, working from back to front, three teams at a time.

For the backmarkers I will list their best three results, further up the grid I will give points totals and best result and at the front I will list race victories.

Lotus:

Heikki Kovalienen: (12th Japan, 13th Korea, 13th Australia)
Has generally lead the 6 driver fight for 19th on the grid and has recorded the best results in races. Of all the drivers who went to the new teams, he has the most reason to be satisfied with his performances across 2010 and if it wasn't for the financial crisis and the return of the need for drivers to pay for all but the very top seats, he would fancy his chances at a promotion back to Renault or Force India. As it is, he is very likely to be driving a Renault-powered Lotus, which is currently predicted to be fighting the Toro Rossos for 9th in the constructors' championship.

Jarno Trulli: (13th Japan, 15th Monaco, 15th Hungary)
Has been the victim of more than his share of Lotus' reliability gremlins, but this doesn't mask the fact that he has also been outperformed fairly consistently by his teammate. Until this year he had a reputation as one of the best qualifiers in the sport, but has routinely been outdone on a Saturday by Heikki, who did not have this reputation before.

Virgin:

Timo Glock: (14th Japan, 16th Hungary, 17th Italy)
After a tough start to the season, where Virgin's fuel tank wasn't big enough for the team to finish a race, Timo has generally succeeded in taking the fight to the Lotuses. He has also consistently outperformed Lucas Di Grassi and was the last driver to lose his record of always outqualifying his teammate. He has certainly proved that he is worthy of a place in the sport. He has also been unlucky to be pushed off track when running amongst the "big boys" in Valencia and Korea, which has deprived him of two very strong results.

Lucas Di Grassi: (14th Malaysia, 15th Singapore, 17th Belgium and Europe)
Whilst he has better results than his teammate, this is more a reflection of luck than consistency. He has also had more than his fair share of accidents, particularly the recent smash before the Japanese Grand Prix even started. His place in the sport is almost certainly gone, since he has neither the sponsors, nor the performance to retain it.

Hispania:

Bruno Senna: (14th Korea, 15th Japan, 16th Malaysia and China)
Missed the British Grand Prix amidst rumours that his sponsors weren't paying, but more importantly got comprehensively outperformed by Christian Klien in the Austrian's first race for 4 years. Makes you wonder how he would have coped with the pressure, had he been chosen in Barrichello's place for the Brawn team last season. I suspect he might have cost the team both titles. Disappointing, given the expectation of his uncle's fans.

Karun Chandhok: (14th Australia, 14th Monaco, 15th Malaysia)
Had the best results for the Hispania team after his poor performance in Bahrain but was replaced after 10 races by Sakon Yamamoto, presumably for financial reasons. Has probably done enough to prove he's worth a place, but will need more funds to actually get one. He has also provided very useful insights on the BBC Red Button coverage of practice, so perhaps a career at the Beeb awaits. A pity, but he seems set to become the new Anthony Davidson.

Sakon Yamamoto: (15th Korea, 16th Japan, 19th Italy and Hungary)
Has been given many chances in the sport, by Super Aguri, Jordan and now Hispania, but has yet to outshine his teammate. Thankfully for him, he has the sort of funding that keeps tail-end teams alive, but it appears that Hispania are betting on Christian Klien's ability to score an 11th place, securing the team 10th place in the championship, as a better means of safeguarding the team's future as the Austrian has been brought in for the Brazilian Grand Prix.

Christian Klien: (retired in Singapore)
Outqualified Senna, then ran nearly a second a lap faster until his retirement in Singapore, the Austrian former Red Bull protege has shown that he is still a good driver. His recall for Brazil shows the faith the team has in him and may earn him a chance to race for a 2011 drive.

2011 grid - by rumour

noreply@blogger.com (Dominic J) — Wed, 15 Sep 2010 19:00:00 +0000

With numbers based on current championship standings:

RED BULL: 1. Webber, 2. Vettel.
McLAREN: 3. Hamilton, 4. Button
FERRARI: 5. Alonso, 6. Massa
MERCEDES: 7. Schumacher, 8. Rosberg (if we believe Schumi's superstition about odd numbers)
RENAULT: 9. Kubica, 10. Raikkonen (how good would that be, alternatively Petrov)
FORCE INDIA: 11. Sutil, 12. Liuzzi (Liuzzi surely under threat, but has apparently signed)
WILLIAMS: 14. Barrichello, 15. Hulkenberg (Rubens began his career in car #14)
SAUBER: 16. Heidfeld, 17. Kobayashi
TORO ROSSO: 18. Buemi, 19. Alguersuari (surely time for both to prove themselves or give up)
LOTUS: 20. Kovaleinen, 21. Trulli (although Petrov may be placed here by Renault)
VIRGIN: 22. Glock, 23. D'Ambrosio (subject to Glock not getting better drive and latter finding sponsorship)
HISPANIA: 24. De La Rosa, 25. Senna (subject to sufficient Spanish sponsorship, presumably)

Hard done by drivers:
1. Chandhok - did all that could be expected of him, but money talks at the back of the grid
2. Maldonado - won GP2 title, which is usually enough to secure a seat. He even has Nicolas Todt for an agent, so expect him to appear if someone loses their seat for sponsorship reasons.

Lucky drivers:
1. Massa - has underperformed this year, returning to his pre-2008 form. There are probably 6 or 7 drivers in slower cars who'd love his Ferrari seat.
2. Schumacher - won't make any pundit's "top 10 drivers of the year" list, perhaps he'll make a "shock" retirement announcement at the end of the season.
3. Liuzzi - Force India would do well to pick up Chandhok (Indian after all) or Maldonado in his place, but probably won't.
4=. Both Toro Rosso drivers - neither has shown any exceptional talent, so I would expect Red Bull to try and place another of its drivers (Chandhok?) in their place, but there's no sign of that happening.
6. Trulli - outclassed by Kovaleinen all year long and hasn't the "rookie" excuse that other overshadowed drivers (Hulkenberg, Petrov) could more validly use.
7. De La Rosa - if it is true that Hispania are so desperate for experience/someone Spanish/sponsorship that they'd take him on

November 18th version of grid

noreply@blogger.com (Dominic J) — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 19:38:00 +0000

Button to McLaren, Mercedes buy-out Brawn... So much happening, so little time!
Here's the latest grid, as I understand it (CONFIRMED DRIVERS in capitals).

McLAREN: 1. BUTTON 2. HAMILTON (Mercedes engine)
MERCEDES: 3. ROSBERG 4. Heidfeld (maybe Kubica if Renault pull out)
RED BULL: 5. VETTEL 6. WEBBER (Renault engine)
FERRARI: 7. ALONSO 8. MASSA (not sure of driver numbers)
TOYOTA: withdrawn - penalties likely since they signed Concorde agreement to 2012.
SAUBER: 9. Heidfeld 10. A Ferrari junior (Ferrari engines, place not confirmed until penalty for Toyota sorted)
WILLIAMS: 11. BARRICHELLO 12. HULKENBERG (Cosworth engines)
RENAULT: 14. KUBICA 15. Di Grassi (may withdraw, Grosjean and many others in frame for drive)
FORCE INDIA: 16. Sutil 17. De La Rosa (Mercedes engine, Sutil near confirmed, Liuzzi contender for other seat, as are 6 others, approx)
TORO ROSSO: 18. BUEMI 19. Alguersuari (Ferrari engine, Bortolotti and others in contention for #2 drive)
CAMPOS META: 20. SENNA 21. Alguersuari (Cosworth engine, preference for a Spanish driver, numbers 20-27 unknown)
US F1: 22. Wurz 23. Andretti (Cosworth engine, little is known about driver choices)
MANOR (VIRGIN): 24. GLOCK 25. Piquet (Cosworth engine, little known about 2nd driver)
LOTUS: 26. Kovaleinen 27. Trulli(Cosworth engine, 1 driver signed but anonymous)

There are 13 drives still to fight over and I'll list 20 drivers below who stand a decent chance:

Drivers not yet confirmed (from above list, likely to get drives):
1. Heidfeld (Mercedes or Sauber)
2. Sutil (Force India)
3. Alguersuari (Toro Rosso or Campos Meta)
4. Wurz (US F1)
5. Kovaleinen (Lotus or Campos)
6. Trulli (Lotus or USF1)

With a fair chance (above list and otherwise):
7. Kobayashi (any)
8. Di Grassi (Renault)

9. De La Rosa (Campos or Force India)

10. Grosjean (Renault or new team)
11. Liuzzi (Force India or new team)
12. Sato (Lotus or any)
13. Davidson (Manor or any)
14. Bortollotti (Toro Rosso, Sauber or Campos)
15. Carroll (Manor or any)
16. Soucek (any)
17. Andretti (USF1)
18. Pantano (any new)
19. Piquet jnr (any new)
20. Petrov (any new)

Amended best-guess grid 2010

noreply@blogger.com (Dominic J) — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 16:23:00 +0000

*indicates far from certain, alternatives/explanation in brackets)

Brawn - Mercedes
1. Jenson Button
2. Nico Rosberg

Red Bull *Renault (Mercedes blocked by McLaren, Ferrari unlikely due to previous strife)
3. Sebastian Vettel
4. Mark Webber

McLaren Mercedes
5. Lewis Hamilton
*6. Kimi Räikkönen (Heidfeld, Glock, even Kovaleinen)

Ferrari
7. Felipe Massa
8. Fernando Alonso (not sure which way around the numbering will go)

Toyota - *will not exist, nor be directly replaced

Sauber Qadbak Ferrari
9. Nick Heidfeld
10. * (Kobayashi, Bortolotti, many others in with a chance here)

Williams Cosworth
11. Rubens Barrichello (had Toyota not left, he'd have had the number 14 he started his career with)
12. Nico Hulkenberg

*Renault (likely to stay, but not certain)
14. Robert Kubica
15. * (Grosjean, di Grassi, Kobayashi, Glock)

Force India Mercedes
16. Adrian Sutil
17 * (Liuzzi, Glock, Trulli, Kovaleinen)

Toro Rosso Ferrari
18. Sebastien Buemi
19. Jaime Alguersuari

Lotus *Cosworth
20. * (Sato, Davidson, Klien)
21. * (Trulli, di Grassi, Kovaleinen, AN Other)

US F1 *Cosworth
22. * (Danica Patrick, Scott Speed, Marco Andretti, Wickens)
23. * (Fisichella, De La Rosa, Gene, Trulli, Bourdais)

Campos Meta *Cosworth
24. Bruno Senna
25. * (De La Rosa, Gene, anyone Spanish, anyone else)

Manor/Virgin *Cosworth
26. * (Paffett, Davidson, ...)
27. * (Petrov, Soucek, ...)

For most of the new teams, all names are in the hat. We'll see come January who's going where.

Auto Motor und Sport's driver rankings (and my own)

noreply@blogger.com (Dominic J) — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 14:36:00 +0000

Auto Motor und Sport have ranked the drivers in the 2009 championship. Their order is reporduced below - for details visit the link above. Bracketed drivers were not included in the ranking (I've brought them into their would-be place) since they competed in less than 1/3 of the season:

(Kamui Kobayashi)
1. Rubens Barrichello
2. Jenson Button
3. Sebastian Vettel
4. Nico Rosberg
5. Mark Webber
6. Felipe Massa
7. Timo Glock
8. Kimi Räikkönen
9. Fernando Alonso
10. Lewis Hamilton
11. Nick Heidfeld
12. Jarno Trulli
13. Robert Kubica
14. Adrian Sutil
15. Heikki Kovaleinen
16. Sebastien Buemi
17. Nelson Piquet
(Tonio Liuzzi)
18. Giancarlo Fisichella
19. Kazuki Nakajima
20. Sebastien Bourdais
21. Jaime Alguersuari
22. Romain Grosjean
(Luca Badoer)

Personally, I couldn't agree with their assesment. With Luca Badoer taking last place, my ranking of the other 24 is as follows:

1. Lewis Hamilton (dragged his awful car to the front, outshining his teammate throughout)
2. Nico Rosberg (comprehensively better than his teammate, he almost dragged Williams to 5th in constructors, alone)

3. Jenson Button (superb, unbeatable with best car, weak without it)

4. Sebastian Vettel (superb in Malaysia and Silverstone, he failed to take advantage of the best car for 60% of the season)
5. Rubens Barrichello (narrrowly outdriven by teammate when car was at its best, he returned the favour when times were tougher)
6. Kimi Räikkönen (string of podiums mid-season ended by Ferrari's development switch to 2010 car)
7. Felipe Massa (season was just coming good when it was horrifically cut short)
8. Kamui Kobayashi (superb in Abu Dhabi, dangerous in Interlagos, clearly the best newcomer)
9. Robert Kubica (some excellent late-season drives camouflaged a bad year)
10. Jarno Trulli (consistently slightly better than his teammate, with pole in Bahrain the highlight)
11. Timo Glock (drives in Malaysia and Singapore in poor car worth mention, but he didn't take advantage of the good car he had until Spain).
12. Mark Webber (only took advantage of a superb car on two occassions)
13. Fernando Alonso (Renault gave up developing their car, but Fernando was outshone by Hamilton and Raikkonen in similar situations)
14. Sebastien Buemi (points on debut and at finale, made the most of his car and saw off a more experienced teammate - as Rubens Barrichello did in 1993).
15. Nick Heidfeld (drove very well in Malaysia, otherwise hardly noticeable)
16. Giancarlo Fisichella (superb in Belgium, otherwise mediocre)
17. Adrian Sutil (a few good races couldn't disguise a poor year)
18. Heikki Kovaleinen (comprehensibly outdriven by his teammate, like most drivers below)
19. Tonio Liuzzi (never outshone his teammate, but which replacement did?)
20. Romain Grosjean (more consistent than his predecessor, but not spectacular)
21. Nelson Piquet jnr
22. Jaime Alguersuari (in the course of a few races, he was nearly matching his teammate)
23. Sebastien Bourdais
24. Kazuki Nakajima (His team-mate finished the season with more points than any Toyota powered driver, yet Kazuki didn't manage a single point).
25. Luca Badoer

2010 lineup (amended)

noreply@blogger.com (Dominic J) — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 08:15:00 +0000

Well 2009 is nearly over, so what awaits us next year? Let's run through the grid in order:
In bold are some edits made AFTER the Abu Dhabi GP

Brawn-Mercedes
1 - Button (90% chance) 95%
2 - Rosberg (70%) 90%
If not - Barrichello, Heidfeld Heidfeld

Red Bull-Renault (or Mercedes) Renault
3 - Vettel (100%)
4 - Webber (90%)
If not - Raikkonen

McLaren Mercedes
5 - Hamilton (100%)
6 - Raikkonen (60%) 80%
If not - Button, Kovaleinen, Heidfeld

Ferrari
7 - Alonso (100%)
8 - Massa (90%)
If not - Fisichella

Toyota
9 - Trulli (60%) Kobayashi (90%)
10 - Kobayashi (50%)
If not - Raikkonen, Glock, Barrichello, Nakajima, Heidfeld, Sato

Williams - Cosworth (Renault, Mercedes?) Cosworth
11 - Barrichello (70%) CONFIRMED
12 - Hulkenberg (80%) CONFIRMED
If not - Rosberg, Glock, Kovaleinen, Heidfeld

Renault
14 - Kubica (100%)
15 - Grosjean (60%) Glock (70%)
If not - di Grassi, Senna, Heidfeld, Glock

Force India Mercedes
16 - Sutil (80%) 90%
17 - Liuzzi (50%) Kovaleinen (50%)
If not - Paffett, Senna, Heidfeld, Glock, Kovaleinen

Toro Rosso Ferrari
18 - Buemi (90%)
19 - Alguersuari (90%)
If not - Hartley, Bortolotti

?Lotus - Cosworth?
??
??
From - Trulli, Heidfeld, Kovaleinen, Davidson, Glock, etc

Campos - Cosworth
Senna CONFIRMED
??
From - De La Rosa? Any of the above drivers who aren't chosen

US F1 Cosworth
??
??
From - Heidfeld, rookies, Americans, any of the drivers who miss out above

Manor/Virgin - Cosworth
??
??
From - Anyone. Suggestions welcome

Good news

noreply@blogger.com (Dominic J) — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 21:11:00 +0000

My friends at Fun In The Sunglasses inform me that their website is back online. Good news if you're looking for Wimbledon frames, with or without prescription lenses. They sell several other brands too, you know.

Bad news: I won't be updating this blog very often over the forthcoming weeks.

Turkey predictions

noreply@blogger.com (Dominic J) — Sat, 06 Jun 2009 17:15:00 +0000

Whilst I haven't published any predictions so far, I have made a note of my views as they shifted across the weekend.

Thursday:
Button, Barrichello, Massa, Vettel, Webber, Alonso, Rosberg, Glock

Friday (after practice):
Massa, Button, Barrichello, Raikkonen, Webber, Alonso, Hamilton, Rosberg

Saturday (after qualifying):
Vettel, Button, Barrichello, Webber, Massa, Trulli, Raikkonen, Rosberg

Put simply, Brawn's slow practice pace didn't fool me, whereas Red Bulls did. McLaren and BMW flattered to deceive yesterday as well, although Kubica did make it into Q3 for only the 2nd time since Malaysia.

I don't forsee much carnage tomorrow, but we'll only find out once the race is underway. Note: Fisichella has struggled to survive the first corner here (there was a piece in the preview show for ualifying, showing him spinning or crashing every time he's been here, on lap one at turn one).

Turkey preview - Qualifying update

noreply@blogger.com (Dominic J) — Sat, 06 Jun 2009 17:00:00 +0000

Red Bull and Brawn share the top two rows on the grid. I'm attempting a different format for displaying the grid, and please forgive it. The gap listed is that between the driver and the man who finished directly in front of them, gaps in bold are beneath 0.1s, showing where things were close.

It is a 58 lap race (as are quite a few, these days) and so 1/4 distance is 14.5 laps (3 stops, equally spaced), 1/3 distance is 19.3 laps (2 stops equally spaced). However, the lack of faith in the soft tyre this weekend is such that Alonso and Vettel are probably taking a short first stint on softs, before 2 stints on hards. The one-stoppers might in fact 2-stop, if any repeat of Melbourne/Monaco happened, to avoid over-using the softs.

Predictions to follow in next post

Turkey preview - fancying their chances

noreply@blogger.com (Dominic J) — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 19:11:00 +0000

Talking up their chances in the media (well, ITV-F1): BMW, Red Bull (car should suit track), Renault, Williams, Toro Rosso (figured out the car, apparently. Clue: tall thin wing is the back, wide tea tray thing the front), Brawn (but see next section), Toyota, Force India (but, only in the keep up the form sense), Massa (looking for 4th win at 4 year old track - didn't win in his Sauber in 2005), Kimi Raikkonen (although a week ago, shortly after the Monaco GP)

Talking down their chances: Brawn (well, expecting more challengers), Kimi Raikkonen.

From which you should deduce: Massa to beat Raikkonen and McLaren to go backwards. Or, you should ignore all this "cheap talk"

What price?

noreply@blogger.com (Dominic J) — Mon, 25 May 2009 13:36:00 +0000

Button, Barrichello, Raikkonen was the podium in Monte Carlo. What price that same trio finishing 1-2-3 in the championship. Vettel is 12 points behind Rubens, and 14 ahead of Kimi. The Ferrari is improving faster than the Red Bull (although their new double diffuser should prove useful in Turkey and at Silverstone).

Pre race predictions

noreply@blogger.com (Dominic J) — Sun, 24 May 2009 11:40:00 +0000

I've been busy, so no post-qualifying post has appeared. I'll write a review of both qualifying and the race at some stage. Using formula1.com's information the grid, with weights is as follows.

1. Jenson Button, Brawn GP, 647.5 kg (Brawn said his cars had 20 laps, based on which the other estimates are made)
2. Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari, 644 - 18 laps
3. Rubens Barrichello, Brawn GP, 648 - 21 laps
4. Sebastian Vettel, Red Bull, 631.5 - 13 laps
5. Felipe Massa, Ferrari, 643.5 - 17 laps
6. Nico Rosberg, Williams, 642 - 17 laps
7. Heikki Kovalainen, McLaren, 644 - 18 laps
8. Mark Webber, Red Bull, 646.5 - 19 laps
9. Fernando Alonso, Renault, 654 - 24 laps
10. Kazuki Nakajima, Williams, 668 - 31 laps
11. Sebastien Buemi, Toro Rosso, 670 - 32
12. Nelson Piquet, Renault, 673.1 - 34
13. Giancarlo Fisichella, Force India, 693 - 42
14. Sebastien Bourdais, Toro Rosso, 699.5 - 45
15. Adrian Sutil, Force India, 670 - 32
16. Nick Heidfeld, BMW Sauber, 680 - 37
17. Robert Kubica, BMW Sauber, 696 - 43
18. Jarno Trulli, Toyota, 688.3 - 40
19. Timo Glock, Toyota, 700.8 - 46 - will start from pits
20. Lewis Hamilton, McLaren, 645.5 - 19 - gearbox change

Bold indicates KERS, italics indicates hitting the wall in qualifying
Predictions: Hamilton to be racy early on, but with little reward.

Win: Button
2nd: Barrichello
3rd: Raikkonen
4th: Vettel
5th: Kovaleinen
6th: Alonso
7th: Massa
8th: Rosberg

I half-expect Raikkonen and Button to collide off the start, causing havoc and rendering the grid meaningless.

Saturday practice

noreply@blogger.com (Dominic J) — Sat, 23 May 2009 10:15:00 +0000

Shorter session, with everyone on track an awful lot. Everyone did between 20 and 29 laps, which implies an average of 11-12 cars on track at any time. Traffic WILL be a problem in Q1, perhaps even in Q2 and Q3. Anyway, times by team:

1. Renault - F. Alonso - 1:15.164
2. Brawn - J. Button - 1:15.233 - 0.069
3. McLaren-Kovaleinen-1:15.278-0.114
5. Ferrari - F. Massa - 1:15.293 - 0.129
8. Red Bull - S. Vettel - 1:15.722 - 0.558
9. Williams - Rosberg - 1:15.758 - 0.594
12. Force India- Sutil - 1:16.228 - 1.064
13.Toro Rosso-Bourdais-1:16.301-1.137
17. Toyota - T. Glock - 1:16.527 - 1.363
18. BMW - R. Kubica - 1:16.599 - 1.435

Too close to call, in other words. In Q1, it is worth everyone's while attempting as many laps as possible, to try and find a clear track - making it implausible that everyone else will succeed.

Luck will play a key role in qualifying, and since qualifying plays such a key role in the race, lcuk matters a lot here.

Friday predictions

noreply@blogger.com (Dominic J) — Fri, 22 May 2009 19:00:00 +0000

BMW and Toyota were VERY slow in practice. Don't know what to make of that - it is only practice after all, and Kubica had problems that stopped him running at all in the second session, perhaps they'll both improve.

Barrichello beat Button in both sessions, though not by much in the second session. Again, probably doesn't mean much, so I'll try not to take it into account.

What is very clear, is that traffic will be the major issue of qualifying. Even when 5-10 drivers were on the track they were getting in each other's way. Expect 2 big names (Brawn, Red Bull, Ferrari, Alonso, Rosberg, Hamilton) to fail to make Q3, probably Q2 even.

As for the race, it depends on strategy, safety cars and qualifying position. Before I know these, I can only stab in the dark, but here goes:

Win: Barrichello
2nd: Vettel
3rd: Button
4th: Webber
5th: Alonso
6th: Hamilton
7th: Rosberg (finally completing a Monaco GP)
8th: Trulli

But realistically it is any 8 from 20 (yes, even Force India, even in the dry).

Thursday Practice

noreply@blogger.com (Dominic J) — Fri, 22 May 2009 18:30:00 +0000

The tag will say Friday, but that is just for consistency's sake. Monaco being so special, "Friday" practice happened yesterday. Simple post, this, to gauge gaps between teams, it will look at total laps, fastest time and the difference between the sessions.

Session 1:
Brawn - Barrichello- 1:17.189 - 0.000 - 26+28 = 54 laps total
Ferrari - F. Massa - 1:17.499 - 0.310 - 31+30 = 61
McLaren - Hamilton - 1:17.578 - 0.389 - 26+30 = 56
Williams - Nakajima- 1:18.000 - 0.811 - 29+27 = 56
Renault - F. Alonso- 1:18.283 - 1.094 - 31+36 = 67 (Piquet ran lots of laps)
Red Bull - Webber - 1:18.348 - 1.159 - 22+16 = 38 (Vettel engine blown,no penalty)
Toro Rosso - Buemi - 1:18.695 - 1.506 - 37+31 = 68 (Buemi ran more laps than anyone else)
Force India-Fisichella-1:19.534-2.345 - 28+24 = 52
BMW - Robert Kubica- 1:19.560 - 2.371 - 20+23 = 43 (Kubica had mechanical trouble)
Toyota - Timo Glock- 1:19.698 - 2.509 - 24+28 = 52

Session 2:
Williams - Rosberg - 1:15.243 - 0.000 - 45+43 = 88
McLaren-Hamilton-1:15.445 - 0.202 - 35+45 = 80
Brawn-Barrichello- 1:15.590 - 0.347 - 41+36 = 77
Ferrari - F. Massa - 1:15.832 - 0.589 - 42+43 = 87
Red Bull - S. Vettel - 1:15.847 - 0.604 - 33+27 = 60
Renault - N. Piquet - 1:16.286 - 1.043 - 43+39 = 82
Force India-A. Sutil- 1:16.675 - 1.432 - 38+45 = 83
Toyota-Jarno Trulli- 1:16.915 - 1.672 - 43+45 = 88
Toro Rosso-Buemi- 1:16.983 - 1.740 - 48+48=96
BMW - N. Heidfeld - 1:17.109 - 1.866 - 40+2 = 42 (Kubica blew his engine early on)

You'll notice how much quicker the 2nd session was compared to the first. Saturday will be quicker still. Drivers in bold beat their teammates in both sessions. Remember, though, that Thursday is worthless in F1 (except for sponsors).

Tyres: Super-softs and softs have been brought here, as an exception to the "2 compounds apart" rule, which will reduce the need for leading teams to run on softs in Q1. This will further empower them to 2-stop, on fresh tyres throughout (2 stints on super-softs, 1 on softs, I think). Weaker teams will 1 stop and put the longer stint on the soft (harder) tyre, to avoid problems faced in some years.

Weather: looks like it will be clear and dry, which spoils the fun somewhat.

Monaco preview

noreply@blogger.com (Dominic J) — Wed, 20 May 2009 23:36:00 +0000

Weather doesn't look like being important, so expect a fairly boring race. What will matter here is mechanical grip, and those experts I've heard say that it favours Brawn, and perhaps Toyota, but not to rule out Ferrari, Red Bull, Alonso or Hamilton. Which is to say, that half the field is worth backing. To that list I'd like to add Rosberg, who is usually quick around Monte Carlo, and add in a note that anyhting can go wrong, and usually does.

Despite this, I'm making some fairly tame predictions:

Win: Webber
2nd: Barrichello
3rd: Button
4th: Glock
5th: Vettel
6th: Massa
7th: Alonso
8th: Hamilton

Obviously, rain will change everything (go Sutil, go, go) as would any safety cars/virtuoso performances.

Tyres: soft and super-soft here, which is an exception to the usual "one compound apart" rule - this will reduce the benefits of extreme strategies, and probably return us to the "2 stops for frontrunners, 1 stop for the rest" strategies of years gone by.

What the cars are capable of

noreply@blogger.com (Dominic J) — Sun, 10 May 2009 20:02:00 +0000

Formula1.com provide a ranking of each driver's fastest lap. Taking the faster team-mate in each case we have:

1. Barrichello - Brawn - 1:22.762
3. Massa - Ferrari - 1:23.089 - + 0.327
4. Vettel - Red Bull - 1:23.089 - + 0.328 (yes 0.001 behind)
6. Alonso - Renault - 1:23.420 - + 0.658
7. Rosberg -Williams- 1:23.621 +0.879
8. Fisichella-Force India-1:23.796 +1.034
9. Hamilton - McLaren - 1:23.839 +1.077
10. Heidfeld - BMW - 1:23.878 - + 1.116
12. Glock - Toyota - 1:24.134 - + 1.372
No Toro Rosso finished a lap.

Rubens was quicker due to 3 stop strategy (meaning he was on less-worn softs when he was on low fuel) and Fisichella was on softs right at the end setting a string of laps quicker than anyone else over the last 10 laps.

This demonstrates the superiority of Brawn, Red Bull and Ferrari this weekend. It also shows how bad the Toyota was (I assume it was damaged) and how very close the entire field is. Also, BMW haven't moved up yet, despite getting 2 points.

Championships

noreply@blogger.com (Dominic J) — Sun, 10 May 2009 18:45:00 +0000

A driver who is more than 2 points per remaining race behind has the championship "out of their hands" since, even if they win every race, if the leader comes second each time, they wouldn't win. The equivalent figure for constructors is 7 per race, since that's the difference between a 1-2 and a 3-4.

With 12 races left only 2 drivers are within 24 points of Button (Barrichello 14 behind, Vettel 18 behind). For the constructors it is still entirely open, since Brawn only have 68 points, and 84 would be the margin required to take it out of someone's hands. Logically, if Brawn take 9 points more than Force India in Monaco (as is likely) then we can start applying the metric to constructors, too.

However, for the drivers championship, when is it too early for teams to give a driver priority? The top 6 in the drivers standings go in pairs: the Brawns, the Red Bulls, the Toyotas. Toyota have shown how easy it is to slip back this year, so Brawn might be justified in promoting Button, but surely not until at least Silverstone, in mid-season.

However, if McLaren (Hamilton 9, Kovaleinen 4) or Renault (Alonso 9, Piquet 0) suddenly had a great car, then surely they'd feel it worthwhile.

For reference sake, as it stands, Barrichello has 40% of Brawn's points, as does Webber for Red Bull. Who gets pulled aside first?

Drivers in trouble

noreply@blogger.com (Dominic J) — Sun, 10 May 2009 14:45:00 +0000

The main metric of performance for a driver in F1 is how you match up with your teammate. Some battles (BMW, Toyota) are closer than others, but here are the drivers you might hear rumours about.

Kovaleinen: Simply didn't have the pace to get out of Q1, which should ring alarm bells. As with his countryman Raikkonen, car problems brought him to an early halt, but at the time he was ahead of his teammate. Reputation: no harm done.

Raikkonen: Clearly not the man he was. Claimed responsibility for Q1 error, although realistically that was a team decision. Had a good first lap today, but car troubles brought him to a halt early on. Reputation: unharmed, but unimproved.

Piquet jnr: Outqualified again (but his best performance yet in 12th) . Survived first lap, unlike some, and ended up ahead of Hamilton. Couldn't keep that up, which on a track like this is a black mark. Stopped earlier than pre-race weight would indicate, probably because Alonso had come out just behind him. Reputation: unimproved, which will soon be a problem.

Bourdais: out on lap 1, like his teammate. Not much to say, really.

Webber: outqualified by his teammate, again (used to be his speciality) but with a better strategy, managed to be best of the rest behind the Brawns. Reputation: restored, still adrift of Vettel though.

Nakajima: Broke his front wing on lap one, but had already lost out in qualifying to his teammate. Got stuck behind Fisichella (but if Hamilton can overtake Piquet, surely Nakajima could overtake a Force India). Lost time when Heidfeld came out in front of him after a stop, but was nowhere near Rosberg's pace again. Reputation: sinking, needs to do something soon to justify his place.

Fisichella: Qualified last, and much slower than Sutil (19th). Survived first lap incident, which is a plus. Had some problems mid-race, making 4 put stops, but on his final stint was the fastest car on the track, 8th on the overall fastest laps ranking (why not for the rest of the race).

Barrichello: Outdone in qualifying, recovered on lap one. Blamed the tyres in stints 2 and 3 for his failure to capitalise on 3 stop strategy. Should have been fuelled longer for penultimate stint, but at least he came second. Will have to tow the line behind Button, if he can't win before Ferrari et al catch up.

How the race was lost

noreply@blogger.com (Dominic J) — Sun, 10 May 2009 14:15:00 +0000

This time the 3 quickest cars were the Brawn, Red Bull and Ferrari. 6 drivers therefore had a good chance of winning. Here's how they went, and went wrong.

Button: Qualified on pole, but lost out on first straight. Despite slightly lighter car, he slipped to 1.5s behind Rubens. Switched to 2 stop strategy at first stop, which proved the right thing to do.

Barrichello: Poor qualifying, but recovered on first lap to lead. Stayed on 3-stop strategy but foolishly left a full length final stint on the slower tyres. Had he put, say, 4 laps more fuel on board, the fuel might have slowed him a second, but he would have recovered about 8 a the end of the stint. Emerged 7 seconds behind Jenson, which became 13 by the end.

Vettel: Qualified 2nd whilst heavier than the Brawn cars. Slipped behind Massa at the start. Stuck to same strategy as Massa, which was pure folly, as he could have been as quick as the Brawns. Ended up 5th, promoted to 4th only by Massa's problems.

Webber: Poor qualifying, left him 5th on grid. Good fight with Alonso as safety car came in. If he'd slipped behind, it would have been curtains. Went longer on 2nd stint, putting twice as much fuel in as Rubens (who stopped on same lap) which meant he was on the soft tyre longer than any other leading 2 stopper. This enabled him to leapfrog Massa and Vettel, but Jenson was long gone. Couldn't pass Rubens, but kept him in sight at the end.

Massa: Qualified really well, but only gained one spot off the grid, using his KERS. Had he managed to get in front, the race would have looked very different, and it would have taken quite some Brawn or Red Bull ingenuity to get passed him. Screwed up final stop, leaving him short fuelled, which cost him 4th and 5th places, he ended up 6th, joining Kimi on 3pts in the standings.

Raikkonen: Had the same car as Massa, but a spectacular Q1 misjudgement left him 16th on the grid. Jumped to 10th on lap 1, but problems first with his KERS and then with his throttle gave him a DNF. Never even ran in the points.