The Money Eater

Market Commentary

noreply@blogger.com (Sia) — Wed, 27 Jan 2010 20:31:00 +0000

Buy the dip working so far. I am out for now, too big of a chicken to hold on in this type of market.

Market Commentary

noreply@blogger.com (Sia) — Wed, 27 Jan 2010 19:40:00 +0000

Take it long when the market approaches HOD. Made a quick $. This market is too shaky for me to hold on long.

Market Commentary

noreply@blogger.com (Sia) — Wed, 27 Jan 2010 17:31:00 +0000

I forgot that there is a bunch of political talk on TV today. CNBC is showing Geithner talking. It seems that the trend during bear/tough markets is to fall when politicians are making speeches. Just something to be aware of. If we hit new lows, embrace them.

Market Commentary

noreply@blogger.com (Sia) — Wed, 27 Jan 2010 16:22:00 +0000

SPY and QQQQ seem like they might touch their highs. IYR already at HOD and OIH is very close. I will stay out of the market for now.

Market Commentary

noreply@blogger.com (Sia) — Wed, 27 Jan 2010 16:08:00 +0000

Here are the markets I follow and current 'analysis':

S&P (via SPY): chop so far, with downward bias
Nasdaq 100 (via QQQQ): slight strength vs SPY
Financials (via XLF): strongest sector
Energy (via OIH): early weakness, but doing well now, this market can be very volatile
Small Caps (via IWM): chop
Real Estate (via IYR): early weakness, but doing well now, this market can be very volatile

Market Commentary

noreply@blogger.com (Sia) — Wed, 27 Jan 2010 15:37:00 +0000

Shorted this quick bounce. Covering soon, do not want to wait for new lows. This market makes me nervous.

Market Commentary

noreply@blogger.com (Sia) — Wed, 27 Jan 2010 15:13:00 +0000

Market making new lows. Low of the week is not too far away. The trend is done with possibility of chop.

An Attempt to Blog Real Time

noreply@blogger.com (Sia) — Wed, 27 Jan 2010 15:11:00 +0000

I might be making an attempt to blog about the market in real time, commenting about the general market conditions in an attempt to align my trading with the action I see.

Finding New Intraday Highs/Lows

noreply@blogger.com (Sia) — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 16:20:00 +0000

Here is tradestation code to find stocks that are making consistent HOD and LOD. Use this in RadarScreen.

vars: highCount(0), lowCount(0), length(0), plotValue(0), highestHigh(0), lowestLow(10000);

If Date <> Date[1] then begin
highCount = 0;
lowCount = 0;
length = 0;
highestHigh = 0;
lowestLow = 10000;
end;

if High > highestHigh then begin
highCount = highCount + 1;
highestHigh = high;
Alert("New High");
end;

if Low < lowestLow then begin
lowCount = lowCount + 1;
lowestLow = low;
Alert("New Low");
end;

plotValue = highCount - lowCount;
Plot1(plotValue, "H/L Count");

if(plotValue > 0) then
SetPlotColor(1, Green)
else if(plotValue < 0) then
SetPlotColor(1, Red)
else SetPlotColor(1, White);

Few Notes

noreply@blogger.com (Sia) — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 07:59:00 +0000

UNG, at its lowest premium since this whole mess started 2.7%. Oil breaking down like I predicted. Looking to see how coal stocks behave from here, could have topped.

Too Far Too Fast?

noreply@blogger.com (Sia) — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 02:46:00 +0000

And the laggards.

UNG Almost Back to Par

noreply@blogger.com (Sia) — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 02:36:00 +0000

UNG is now trading only at a 3.5% premium. This means it can be traded without the same fear or buying/selling premium. Also it has become CRAZY volatile. Today nat gas was up 10+% while UNG was up 5.8%, making the gap shrink. The question I am waiting to answer is whether nat gas has been extra volatile recently because of this arbitrage opportunity, or if this crazy action will continue. I managed to bank some nice $ going long UNG today, and hopefully will do the same in the future.

There still is a premium in UNG and 3% is still a BIG premium for an "efficient" ETF, so be careful not to hold long term.

Oil - Relative Weakness

noreply@blogger.com (Sia) — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 06:49:00 +0000

It looks like oil has topped out here. Its relative weakness to the indexes is very apparent.

UNG Fund Release More Shares

noreply@blogger.com (Sia) — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 02:53:00 +0000

Based on the news alone, the premium is reduced from 16% to 6%, very nice. Oct 2009 nat gas is up 17% (including after hours trading) today, while UNG was only up 2.5%. Looks like arbitrage play worked out today. Also seems like the premium of GAZ is now 0%, unless I am doing my math wrong... I take that back, according to ETFConnect GAZ has a 11.12% premium.

UNG

noreply@blogger.com (Sia) — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 01:18:00 +0000

Getting ridiculous.

Premium / (Discount)
12.91%

UNG

noreply@blogger.com (Sia) — Fri, 14 Aug 2009 22:04:00 +0000

Nat gas is very amusing for me (I have given up on trying to long it, thankfully not suffering any losses). Today I noticed how the commodity hit a new low, yet UNG did not. So I pop on over to the UNG website and I see

As of 8/13/2009
Closing Price $12.47
NAV $11.50
Premium / (Discount) 8.43%

So this thing is trading at an 8.5% PREMIUM. If they ever get approval to distribute more shares, watch out!

Blog

noreply@blogger.com (Sia) — Tue, 11 Aug 2009 16:31:00 +0000

This blog has been pretty pathetic recently. I have been focusing on work and using Stewie's service to trade stocks. Although this makes my life was less stressful, it makes this blog a boring read. I can try to post more ideas here, but only if time permits.

Failed Banks

noreply@blogger.com (Sia) — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 04:59:00 +0000

Forgot there was another week in July! Crazy month!

Nat Gas

noreply@blogger.com (Sia) — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 07:35:00 +0000

Breaking up the previous lower high. chart Might get long tomorrow on pullback.

Incredible July

noreply@blogger.com (Sia) — Sat, 25 Jul 2009 17:20:00 +0000

Nat Gas - Next Leg Lower?

noreply@blogger.com (Sia) — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 15:32:00 +0000

After yesterday's big down day (-5%), it looks like nat gas has set a significant top for now. The question is, is there a next leg lower? Or will nat gas start to trend up for the first time this year? I think a break above yesterday's high will be a signal to get long UNG. Till then we assume that this is headed lower since that is the trend.

I actually think there is a significant chance that nat gas has formed a nice double bottom, but for now I have sold my UNG for a gain, and would not mind re-entering at higher prices.

MAD4e

noreply@blogger.com (Sia) — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 01:55:00 +0000

http://www.sendspace.com/file/ydrg2s

Should have everything that you need.

Chop

noreply@blogger.com (Sia) — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 19:27:00 +0000

Healthy digestion of recent run-up from lows? Or resistance forming for a major leg down? I am more neutral than anything.

On another note, I will probably share the TS functions, indicators and strategies that I have shown here (what I call MAD4e). They are not complicated at all, and their usefulness really depends on the market you are trading, but I will share them soon.

Volatile Tradeable Stocks

noreply@blogger.com (Sia) — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 05:51:00 +0000

	Symbol	Description	Last	Volume Avg Dollar	ATR %	Vol (1 Day Ago)
1	SLM	SLM Corp	10.08	255,697,004.40	9.11	14,636,747.00
2	PALM	PalmOne Inc	15.78	330,756,143.76	8.5	74,475,763.00
3	YGE	Yingli Energy Hoding Co Ltd	13.41	101,194,741.20	8.42	5,604,217.00
4	GNW	Genworth Financial Inc	7.09	156,019,660.00	8.4	14,389,386.00
5	ERX	Energy Bull 3x Shares	29.5	153,794,798.08	8.32	5,037,633.00
6	KEY	KeyCorp	5.31	119,526,450.96	8.21	30,338,737.00
7	AKS	AK Steel Holding	19.28	169,622,054.64	8.12	11,392,029.00
8	MEE	Massey Energy	19.44	141,033,664.52	7.84	5,461,711.00
9	LVS	Las Vegas Sands Corp	8.13	136,082,289.63	7.76	27,902,434.00
10	FAS	Financial Bull 3x Shares	9.4	1,249,547,635.76	7.36	134,384,425.00
11	STP	Suntech Power Holdings Co Ltd	17.78	113,384,830.56	7.25	6,767,039.00
12	FAZ	Financial Bear 3x Shares	4.59	709,328,711.20	7.2	138,630,484.00
13	TZA	Small Cap Bear 3x Shares	22.45	252,895,906.72	7.2	10,466,111.00
14	HIG	Hartford Finl Svcs Gp	12.02	132,723,399.60	7.15	15,031,236.00
15	TNA	Small Cap Bull 3x Shares	28.13	320,362,354.24	7.15	11,055,625.00
16	FITB	Fifth Third Bancorp	7.02	141,238,379.80	6.94	19,650,988.00
17	LEN	Lennar Corp'A'	9.7	108,297,096.21	6.9	7,949,026.00
18	LNC	Lincoln Natl Corp	17.1	153,652,943.92	6.44	7,072,825.00
19	SRS	UltraShort Real Estate ProShrs	20	387,852,629.40	6.4	20,037,960.00
20	KBH	KB Home	14.07	100,071,689.83	6.36	12,786,104.00
21	IP	Intl Paper	14.53	122,461,979.78	6.32	6,650,327.00
22	RTP	Rio Tintoplc ADS	168.49	147,977,053.85	6.27	869,433.00
23	SNDA	Shanda Interactive Entertainmt	55.6	105,627,641.90	6.21	1,410,937.00
24	M	Macy's Inc	11.94	112,258,650.18	6.19	5,914,576.00
25	F	Ford Motor	5.87	425,132,132.16	6.07	68,303,903.00
26	X	U.S. Steel Corporation	36.95	607,377,327.68	6.04	15,876,208.00
27	JOYG	Joy Global	36.8	104,825,904.00	6.03	2,735,612.00
28	WFT	WeatherFord Intl	20.03	218,097,536.32	6	9,094,575.00
29	AA	Alcoa Inc	10.48	321,192,488.16	5.96	26,382,876.00
30	ATI	Allegheny Technologies	34.7	100,706,776.86	5.95	3,638,092.00
31	DFS	Discover Financial Services	10.7	140,809,759.69	5.92	5,401,766.00
32	NBR	Nabors Industries Inc	15.27	132,981,406.17	5.84	5,551,701.00
33	STI	SunTrust Banks	16.19	110,321,477.85	5.83	11,145,255.00
34	CI	Cigna Corp	24.25	103,110,272.50	5.77	3,506,858.00
35	S	Sprint Nextel Corporation	4.9	125,240,085.84	5.74	46,229,276.00
36	BTU	Peabody Energy	30.78	116,776,775.28	5.72	5,195,045.00
37	RF	Regions Financial Corporation	4.05	129,547,912.78	5.71	30,679,428.00
38	MT	Arcelor Mittal	33.12	146,051,381.04	5.69	7,499,174.00
39	FCX	Freeport-McMoRan Copper&Gold B	50.32	701,418,458.37	5.67	13,812,731.00
40	STX	Seagate Technology	10.3	117,193,293.63	5.6	22,205,920.00
41	BGU	Large Cap Bull 3x Shares	34.62	328,507,848.90	5.47	11,115,417.00
42	DIG	Ultra Oil And Gas ProShares	26.8	161,640,817.80	5.45	6,661,501.00
43	BGZ	Large Cap Bear 3x Shares	34.56	291,657,135.00	5.44	8,429,558.00
44	MRVL	Marvell Technology Group	11.61	119,103,308.13	5.44	16,626,685.00
45	MOS	Mosaic Company	45.94	461,928,170.08	5.41	7,035,161.00
46	AES	AES Corp	11.37	105,276,304.44	5.37	9,040,810.00
47	AET	Aetna Inc	25.37	120,193,606.39	5.37	6,124,701.00
48	BJS	BJ Services	13.68	104,156,442.00	5.36	9,604,324.00
49	COF	Capital One Financial	22.38	146,415,778.80	5.32	7,677,450.00
50	MDRX	Allscripts-Misys Healthcare So	16.45	100,212,657.04	5.28	26,054,380.00

Volatile Tradeable ETFs

noreply@blogger.com (Sia) — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 18:33:00 +0000

They are sorted by Average True Range % (the average true range divided by the price of the stock). I also display Volume Avg Dollar which is the average volume * price of the stock. Both these figures give MUCH better numbers when trying to compare liquidity and volatility of a stock. You can see from this list that FAS is the most liquid ETF out there. UNG also stands out as a liquid and volatile ETF that is only a 1x (no extra leverage). My favorite are: SRS, FAS, TZA, SKF, and trying UNG out recently (that thing does NOT want to go up despite all the hype over it).

Symbol	Description	Last	Volume Avg Dollar	ATR %	Vol (1 Day Ago)
EDC	Emerging Markets Bull 3x Shrs	80.99	47,361,014.14	8.98	569,686
ERX	Energy Bull 3x Shares	29.55	170,901,029.95	8.65	5,444,855
EDZ	Emerging Markets Bear 3x Shrs	14.27	17,549,511.06	8.48	1,737,031
ERY	Energy Bear 3x Shares	22.17	106,833,163.08	8.35	3,528,523
UYM	Ultra Bas Mat ProShrs	17.35	119,572,182.75	7.71	6,147,030
TZA	Small Cap Bear 3x Shares	22.76	404,160,521.40	7.69	11,789,298
SMN	UltraShort Bas Mat ProShares	19.15	69,466,037.60	7.67	3,593,418
FAS	Financial Bull 3x Shares	8.93	1,601,087,735.04	7.64	171,991,633
FAZ	Financial Bear 3x Shares	4.82	998,398,296.32	7.47	210,537,860
TNA	Small Cap Bull 3x Shares	27.94	474,063,349.28	7.46	12,149,142
DTO	PowerShs DB Crude Oil Dbl Shrt	73.5	63,823,149.84	7.46	779,579
SRS	UltraShort Real Estate ProShrs	20.44	618,596,303.60	7.08	27,480,677
MWN	Mid Cap Bear 3X Shares	60.1	4,040,304.75	6.87	128,379
JAG	Jaguar Mining Inc Ord Shs	7.95	1,784,088.60	6.69	102,419
PAR	3PAR Inc	11.6	10,469,696.00	6.5	645,854
FXP	ProShrs UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua	12.4	44,883,671.04	6.4	6,196,361
TMF	Direxion 30 Yr Treasry Bull 3X	41.48	3,545,171.16	6.38	135,150
SSG	UltraShort Semic ProShares	35.68	7,176,317.31	6.31	247,379
UCO	ProShares Ultra DJ-AIG Crude	13.2	54,602,676.35	6.22	3,793,078
SCO	ProShares UltraSh DJ-AIG Crude	17.25	39,255,165.84	6.18	1,969,261
TYP	Technology Bear 3x Shares	21.6	11,555,378.73	6.15	384,745
USD	Ultra Semiconductors ProShares	19.59	7,830,214.17	6.11	284,364
TYH	Technology Bull 3x Shares	89.5	28,509,955.10	6.1	280,905
CML	Compellent Technologies Inc	14.87	1,754,243.64	5.96	346,396
BGZ	Large Cap Bear 3x Shares	35.42	524,807,553.32	5.93	10,827,521
AGQ	ProShares Ultra Silver	43.4	5,135,327.70	5.85	262,301
BGU	Large Cap Bull 3x Shares	33.84	621,271,257.60	5.84	15,991,885
EEV	ProShs UltraS MSCI Emrgin Mkts	21.23	80,006,656.18	5.73	4,134,836
DIG	Ultra Oil And Gas ProShares	26.73	238,543,058.16	5.73	8,038,584
ZSL	ProShares UltraShort Silver	8.81	3,089,565.60	5.71	636,877
UNG	United States Natural Gas Fund	14.4	523,430,835.20	5.62	52,185,434
DUG	UltraShort Oil And Gas ProShrs	18.67	155,192,113.44	5.6	8,691,586
DYY	DB Commodity Double Long ETN	7.3	1,380,972.32	5.53	138,921
XME	SPDR S&P Metals & Mining	38.12	140,411,035.26	5.52	3,446,624
GAZ	IPATH AIG Ntrl Gas Rtn SB Idx	17.47	3,352,349.36	5.52	398,593
KOL	Market Vectors - Coal ETF	23.32	8,396,973.00	5.43	311,868
TAN	Claymore/MAC Glbl Solar Energy	9.57	8,447,400.72	5.28	710,873
SLX	Market Vectors Steel	42.66	9,189,049.32	5.25	196,661
TWM	ProShares Ultra Short Russel2k	42.8	208,854,007.04	5.11	4,142,468
UWM	ProShares Ultra Russell 2000	19.21	94,589,041.08	5.06	3,958,099
DXO	PowerShs DB Crude Oil Dbl Long	4.4	41,589,668.41	5.06	9,293,207
SKF	UltraShort Financials ProShare	42.75	1,549,096,086.64	5.06	38,934,746
FCG	First Trust ISE-Reserve NatGas	12.81	2,811,756.57	5	192,106
RSX	Market Vectors - Russia	20.9	47,209,486.56	4.84	3,271,825
SIJ	UltraShort Ind ProShares	43.1	5,360,476.30	4.83	100,696
NZ	Netezza Corporation	7.76	3,329,443.52	4.79	576,335
SEA	Claymore Delta Global Shipping	11.74	2,461,636.75	4.74	154,312
MZZ	UltraShort MidCap400 ProShrs	38.24	23,387,120.82	4.74	506,972
MVV	ProShares Ultra MidCap 400	26.65	10,235,700.72	4.69	227,563
VXX	iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term	70.87	49,261,318.82	4.6	464,597
EFU	UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShrs	62.31	4,189,875.00	4.58	217,472
GDX	Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF	40.05	245,006,693.01	4.41	7,892,619
SCC	UltraShort Cons Svcs ProShares	63.23	12,274,998.75	4.39	188,442
HAO	Claymore/Alpha Shrs China SmCp	21.15	5,606,091.84	4.29	108,274
IEZ	iShs DJ US Oil Equipment & Srv	33.51	7,451,264.34	4.2	358,278
OIH	Oil Service HOLDRS	99.09	1,025,623,802.00	4.16	12,090,850
XES	SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Equipment	21.89	4,840,627.15	4.11	110,310
PBW	PwrShr WilderHill Clean Energy	10.21	3,571,540.20	4.11	417,889
BKF	iShares MSCI BRIC Index Fund	35.07	4,906,550.88	4.1	201,722
ROM	Ultra Technology ProShares	31.99	9,171,823.94	4.08	418,774
QID	UltraShort QQQ ProShares	32.24	914,973,478.08	4.02	19,691,947
	~Results and data as of: 06/25/2009 at 09:16:07 pm