Mets Are Better Than Sex

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2013-12-08T09:07:00.001-05:00

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Jose's Homecoming - The Soundtrack

2012-04-24T11:52:00.000-04:00

I was just reading this article on ESPN.com about Reyes being excited to return to New York tonight when Spotify inexplicably played the most appropriate song possible - "These are the Days of Our Lives" by Queen .

I would highly recommend reading and listening to the two together (you know, like watching "The Wizard of Oz" while listening to Pink Floyd's 'Darkside of the Moon' album).

Now a note for anyone going to tonight's game:

Cheer Jose during the tribute video package and introductions. You can even break out the 'Jose, Jose, Jose' chant. Prior to the first pitch he's not the enemy, he's not a bad guy. He's the Mets starting shortstop of the past decade, the most electrifying leadoff hitter in baseball, and the guy you bought a ticket to see (when he was healthy) for all those seasons. Seriously, how many times did he bring you to your feet while legging out a triple? Exactly! Every single time.

Put aside whatever you think about him leaving in the off-season and give him his due for what he did for the franchise both in making them relevant and competitive. Celebrate the good times we had together until the game gets underway.

Once the ump yells "Play Ball", you can treat him like any other opposing player.

Sources:
Jose Reyes Just Can't Wait - ESPN.com
"These are the Days of Our Lives" - YouTube.com

Can Fans Really Hold Teams Accountable for Lackluster Play?

2012-04-24T06:30:00.000-04:00

It's good to see there are still places in the world where fans literally can still hold a team responsible for unacceptable play on the field. Italian soccer fans have the right idea.

A group of die hard Genoa soccer team fans held up a match by throwing fireworks on the field for their teams lackluster play. They demanded their team remove their jerseys because they weren't worthy or wearing those colors, and the team obliged!

You know, with this recent string of terrible...terrible....horseshit Mets games, I can just see it now:

A few thousand fans sneak in flares and other fireworks that could be aimed at the field. On command the field assault begins. The stadium goes on lock down. The feds, swat teams, anti-terrorist police units, riot teams and any other available law enforcement rush in. Choppers hover above, and one-by-one they get all the culprits, none of whom are ever allowed back at Citi Field or any other stadium in the tri-state area for that matter...then the exorbitant legal fees plus legal problems...plus the tiny inconveniences that come with being on the 'government watch list'....and this and that and this and that.

Might be worth it though.

The product on the field is out right hard to watch right now. It's surprising how this team actually won this many games to date this year, especially after this recent stretch.

Italian soccer fans hold game hostage, demand their team remove their jerseys for bad play [NBC]
Photo credits courtesy of [New York Daily News]

Criticize the Jason Bay Contract Not His Play

2012-04-23T11:08:00.000-04:00

16.5 million dollars a year will do that. Will cause fans and experts to doubt your ability. Will cause everyone to look past how good you are and only focus on what you are getting paid to determine if you are worth their admiration.

Jason Bay signed with the Mets in the winter of 2010 for a 4 year/66 million dollar contract with incentives that could push the deal to a total of 80 million dollars. Before the ink could dry on the contract, Jason Bay was in a no-win situation.

Allow me to refresh your memory on where the Mets were at that time. They collapsed in back-to-back seasons in 2007 and 2008 and were forced to watch the hated Phillies celebrate a divison title and a World Series.

2009 was a complete disaster. Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, and Carlos Delgado were on the disabled list for most of the year. Things got so bad, they were forced to play a washed up Gary Sheffield and Atlanta Braves cast off Jeff Francoeur.

Please read this carefully because I'm not joking when I say this, Fernando Tatis received significant playing time and actually was a bright spot on a horrible team! Yes I just wrote that, Fernando Tatis! A man that was out of baseball for several years was the highlight and fan favorite for your 2009 NY Mets!

So that leads us to the winter of 2010 with the Mets looking at an aging First Basemen in Delgado, an injury prone Shortstop in Reyes, and an injury prone center-fielder in Beltran. So if you were Omar Minaya, what would you do? You just wasted 2 very good years from Johan Santana. You already put all your chips on the table the year before when you signed K-Rod to be your closer, and you forced Mets fans to watch Fernando Tatis in your shiny new stadium!

Whether people like to admit it or not, Jason Bay was the big fish that off-season, every Mets fan wanted him and most importantly we needed another bat! The 2010 Mets were just 3 seasons removed from being in the National League Championship. Jason Bay was worth the risk, and even though he hasn't produced the power numbers that Mets fans hoped for he is still a solid ball player.

He has a high baseball IQ and plays good defense in Left Field. The Mets as currently constructed make it easy to blame Bay and his contract but the guy still hustles, still makes all the right plays and still runs into walls and climbs over them to take away home runs.

With the fences being brought in this year, he will hit more home runs and drive in more runs. He missed almost half of his first season with the Mets after running into the Left Field wall in Dodger Stadium and suffering a concussion.

Last year was technically his first full season and he showed glimpses of the old Jason Bay. With protection from Lucas Duda in the lineup this year I expect Bay to produce more and remind fans that very few can play a better left field. He isn't worth 16.5 million a year but he also isn't a bum, Roberto Alomar still holds that title for worst Mets pick up! Boo his contract not his effort or his ability to play the game the right way!

Posted by Eric Sanchez

The Mets Stat Extrapolator - Part 1: The Infield

2012-04-18T11:23:00.000-04:00

The Mets are 7-4. That makes for pretty decent record to start the season, and the second best in the NL East (trailing Washington by 1.5 games). The Wall Street Journal reported that the Mets might not be a fluke (how nice!).

But can they keep it up?

If the Mets maintained this pace, they'd finish with 112 wins. Although nothing is "impossible," we acknowledge the fact that such an outcome is unlikely. However, that doesn't mean we're not entitled, as fans, to a bit of early spring dreaming.

With all else being equal (Phillies not hitting, Marlins poised for internal combustion, etc.,), if the Mets want to keep up their pace, their offensive contributors would have to remain consistent throughout (forgive the simplicity of the analysis).

By extrapolating out the projected, final offensive numbers for the Mets position players, albeit after only ten games, we can then judge the reachability of the projections, and decide whether in fact 112 wins is actually within reach (now's the time to really BELIEVE).

So, continuing on the very same track we're on now, here's how the Mets hitters project to finish in their respective, most important categories.

First Base - Ike Davis
32 Home Runs; 81 RBI's; 49 walks and a .139 AVG.

The 32 is probably in the realm of where Ike can and should finish. However, Ike's clearly only started making contact and therefore, we can expect a burst in his batting average, and consequently his walks. An improved plate approach would likewise result in a boost of home runs, perhaps beyond the range we'd expect or predict.

Conclusion: Ike's line, come September, should (better) be far better than what he's projecting as, and in turn, can continue to provide the fuel the Mets need to keep their wins and losses proportional throughout the season.

1 vote for winning 112

Second Base - Daniel Murphy
65 Doubles; 49 Runs; 65 RBI's; 0 Home Runs; .263 AVG and, a .364 OBP

Miguel Cabrera lead the league, last season, in doubles with 48. The chances that Murph crushes that figure are slim. However, there's room for improvement in the home run category, where we'd like to see Murphy finish in the 10-15 range, and certainly room for a jump in the batting average. Getting on base more should lead to more runs, which as an early-in-the-line-up hitter are crucial in establishing Murph's value.

Conclusion: Although the Doubles number is high, there's plenty of room for improvement across the other statistical categories. Of course Murphy needs to stay healthy but we're not only projecting our numbers but also, games played. So we'll chalk Murphy up for 162, hoping he avoids any fielding related injuries, and assume Murph can and will... only get better.

2 votes for winning 112

Shortstop - Ruben Tejada
.289 AVG; .357 OBP; 65 walks; 97 doubles; 81 runs; 0 Stolen Bases; 178 hits.

We'll take the average, and don't believe that's too much of a stretch. Ruben is hitting A LOT of doubles currently, and while he can't be expected to maintain that pace, its highly probable that he'll hit more singles, a few triples and maybe belt a few long balls leading only to a slight to modest reduction in on base percentage. Further, we'd like to see Terry start giving Ruben the green light. Perhaps his lack of SB's is a result of his high double rate, which means we can see more when Tejada become more gap-slap-happy, and he can maintain his run production.

Last season Curtis Granderson lead the league in Runs scored with 136. However, Elvis Andrus came home 96 times and Ben Zobrist 99 times... so these are numbers Ruben can reach (especially if there's productive power behind him). If Ruben reaches 600 at bats, he can finish with 178 hits, like Juan Pierre did with a similar number of plate appearances.

Conclusion: Yeah sure why not. Maybe this is a liberal projection and for sure, there's a chance that pitchers will learn to hit Ruben where he's weakest. But we're 7 and 4, and as the Wall Street Journal pointed out, there's reason to believe.

3 votes for 112 wins

Third Base - David Wright
113 games played; 32 home runs; 0 doubles; 81 RBI's; .542 average.

Well, David needs to play more than 113 games. Fortunately, even if David took 150 to clobber 32 home runs, we'd be thrilled. Also, those additional games and an increase in his doubles, of which he averages around 25 per season, would lead to more RBI's. We expect David to play more games and while the law of averages suggests his average will plummet rapidly from that level, its not his average we're concerned about. Rather, its a return of the highly productive David that we've loved in the past and want to rely on in the future.

Conclusion: David can do it; David can pick up some steals along the way; and, David can stay healthy. Of course, if he doesn't the decline in offense from the next best third base option would be dramatic. Thus, his presence for more that 113 games is severely important to the Mets chance at remaining consistent. But we're merely here to suggest whether our players can stay on pace and in this case, we believe the pace is the floor, and the ceiling.

4 votes for 112 wins

Check back after game 16 when we project the production from the Mets Outfield as we explore the probability that the Mets continue winning at a respectable 70% clip.

10 Learnings From the Mets First 10 games of the season

2012-04-17T11:35:00.000-04:00

10 games in and the Mets are 7-3 only a 1/2 game back of the...1st place Nationals? While I'm not ready to declare that the Mets will win the World Series in 2012 like one of my colleagues did, there might be more to this season than just hope. Here are 10 things we've learned through the first 10 games.

1. The Phillies and Braves have just about zero offense
The Mets opened the season by sweeping the Braves in almost comical fashion. If it weren't for the paranoia of Mets fans and all the pre-season talk about how bad the team would be, would you have been at all worried about the Braves offense scoring runs? Sure, Chipper Jones was hurt and not in the lineup but he's not single handedly turning the Braves anemic offense into the Tigers or Rangers lineup.

As for the Phillies, well their offense was built almost entirely around 3 guys: Jimmy Rollins who, pardon me sir, your age is showing; we can pretty much put in the book that Chase Utley's career is/will be cut short by injuries; and Ryan Howard needs to have guys, like Rollins and Utley, on base in front of him to limit a pitcher's options given his high strikeout rate. Yes, the Phillies did get Hunter Pence and he's a good player but just like Chipper, he's not turning a lineup into something amazing on his own.

2. The Nationals lack names but will be a challenge
You've heard of Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper. Well Harper isn't even in the major leagues, so you've basically only heard of 1 guy on their team (other than Jayson Werth and that's only because he used to play for the Phillies). While not something that's going to give you nightmares on first glance, the Nationals feature a dynamic lineup capable of speed and power. They took 2 of 3 from the Mets and the bad news is, possibly their best hitter, Michael Morse has been on the DL all year so far. With some solid starting pitching and Tyler Clippard in the bullpen the strategy may have to be wait for Brad Lidge to implode.

3. All I know about the Miami Marlins is...
That they wear ugly jerseys, they lured our golden child Jose Reyes, and their manager loves Fidel Castro. Although apparently Ozzie Guillen has had a change of heart based on his public apology. It's not the smartest move to say something pro-Castro in Miami. Anyway, I know that they have tons of speed (Bonafacio, Hanley and grr it actually hurts to put Reyes' name here), I also know that Hanley Ramirez was off to a slow start to open the season (because I have him on one of my fantasy teams) and their starting pitching hasn't been very good. We'll learn more about them in the coming days.

4. Is Andres Torres even necessary?
He was brought in to play centerfield and bat leadoff because there was (presumably) no one to play the position and to insulate Rubeun Tejada from the direct comparisons to Jose Reyes. Well, Tejada has done a great job at the top of the order working the count and getting on base (.357obp). As for centerfield, rookie Kirk Nieuwenhuis hasn't made an error and is doing more with the bat than you'd expect to get from Torres. So we'll see what transpires after Torres heals, will he get his job back, come off the bench, or get sent down/released to make room for someone else.

5. Jason Bay gets a raw deal
Both Bay and Davis got off to horrible, strike that, horrendous starts to the season. The difference - Bay was immediately booed whereas Ike received "I Like Ike" chants from the crowd hoping that their positive energy would be enough to will his bat to actually make contact. I get it, the Bay contract was bad but can you blame Jason for signing it? I'll tell you this, if anyone ever offers me a contract to do this (or my day job) or an exorbitant amount more than I'm probably actually worth I'm signing that mofo so fast you'd think that my signature had been printed on it. So don't blame him for being overpaid, bad contracts happen, but he hasn't sulked about it, complained to the media that he's being treated unfairly or done anything to deserve the fans wrath.

You want to be mad, blame Omar for the deal. Jason Bay hustles on every play and tries to contribute in whatever way he is physically able to. So why not give him some of that positive encouragement reserved for Ike? There no rule against cheering for every guy in the starting lineup. And who knows, maybe he just needs a nice big metaphorical fan hug to get back to the way he used to be in Pittsburgh.

6. Jon Niese is going to be pretty good
No real analysis, just look at his 2 starts and his upside potential.

7. David Wright is the most important piece in the lineup.
I've been to 1 game so far this season, David Wright wasn't playing, the Mets looked horrible and lost their first game of the season. Without David in there the whole complexion of the offense changes. A pitcher can pick his spots, and work around guys with very little fear. As soon as Ike regains his form from last season it may be a different story but with his current early season slump in effect the lineup needs Wright to make everything go. If Tejada gets on and Wright is batting third, Daniel Murphy gets pitches to hit. Ike, Bay and Duda have someone who will usually get on base in front of them, giving pitchers a big inning to worry about. And while he hasn't done it yet this season, Wright can steal a base, adding yet another weapon to his arsenal.

8. Mike Pelfrey will be good this year or he'll be the next John Maine.
Patience has pretty much run out on Pelf, both from the fans and from the organization. I've personally never been too high on him because of his lack of a consistent "out" pitch. He has a decent sinker but sometimes his command of it resembles me throwing darts at a bar after 3 pitchers - not great. He's not a strikeout guy, which has always bothered me because of his size (maybe it's an unfair request that all tall pitchers strike guys out like Randy Johnson used to), so he needs to demonstrate good command in order to get hitters out on pitcher's pitches. His last start against the Phillies was encouraging, but time's up on just showing glimpses of promise given that Niese and even Gee have risen above Pelfrey in terms of consistency.

9. There will be a trade market for Johan Santana.
Unless the Mets are in first at the All-Star break, Johan might be going bye-bye. I don't mean to spoil the surprise for anyone, but that's what's likely going to happen. That said, so far in this early season Santana has shown that he's recovered from surgery and is capable of being effective pitching in the major leagues. Is he the same guy he was on the Twins? Not even close. The same guy the Mets got when they traded for him? Not really, but he's a solid arm for any starting rotation looking to win a championship.

But don't get sad or nostalgic, this is all good news for the Mets. It means that Johan can bring back some pieces in a trade. Now we're not getting 3 young AAA prospects and I doubt that any team will offer up their organization's "don't trade under any circumstances" minor league gem, but with a little help from Sandy, Johan Santana may be able to help the Mets win the division for the next few years.

10. Trading David Wright will undo all of the progress and dissolve the good feelings around the city.
I consider it the "Doomsday" scenario. People tell you that Wright can fetch a lot of good prospects and help build the team for the future (similar to the Johan scenario above), they'll bring up his injury history, his salary, and a bunch of other things which only amount to a smokescreen. Here's where the argument falls apart - David Wright is hitting .542 in his first 7 games (he missed 3 with a broken pinkie) with 5 runs, 2 home runs, 5 RBIs and 5 walks. Plus he only has 2 striekouts.

It's not hard to see that Wright=Offense. Okay but what about the future? What about his injuries? Simple: He's still young enough to be young but old enough to be a mature presence in the clubhouse. Injuries happen, stop thinking of baseball as some special case and treat it more like football. People get beat-up and bruised and when David does he plays. He got his bell rung by a Matt Cain fastball that would have caused me to retire if I was sitting in the dugout and saw it.

He broke his back, and like Batman came back from it. His pinkie is broken, so after a couple of days of rest he hits a home run on the first pitch he sees. Every team needs a hero and David Wright is the Mets with all he's faced with criticism, injuries and just some bad seasons. He's the uniting factor for the fans and for the city because he's where the conversation starts with this team. Losing David Wright would take more than a really good player out of the lineup and the clubhouse, it would take the air out of the Mets.

Look, realistically the Mets aren't winning 70% of their games. It's also realistic that they won't lose 95 either. But if the team can come together, Davis and Bay can pick it up, the pitching stays strong (*cough* *cough* Pelfrey) this team has a chance to make some noise in a division that I think is pretty much up for grabs. There's still going to be some bad times, but there might be some great times that no one thought could happen (well, no one except us). So buckle, there's a 152 more chances ahead.

Have Mets Seasonal Affective Disorder?

2012-04-14T10:00:00.000-04:00

The Mets Will Win the World Series in 2012: Part 3

2012-04-13T12:00:00.002-04:00

The Bullpen and the Intangibles

If I know anything about baseball, it's that a bullpen can make or break your season (see 2006 Mets for the make, 2008 Mets for the break) and that relief pitchers' performances from year to year are about as easy to predict as the stock market, unless you're Bernie Madoff. Speaking of that scumbag, since a settlement has been reached, we no longer have to hear about how much money the Wilpons will be liable to pay, and whether they'll be forced to sell the team, and yadda yadda yadda... This is a huge relief to Met ownership and a giant distraction taken away from Mets players. Win. Also, it means ownership will have no excuse not to spend money going forward—including extending Wright—even if they're playing in front of empty seats this year, which I don't think they will be, if they win as many ballgames as I think they can.

Frank Francisco—Forgive him his dreadful month of May last season and he would look like a pretty damn good closer:

Month          W-L   Sv/Opp   ERA   WHIP
May            0-2    5/8     8.68  2.04
Apr,June-Sep   1-2   12/13    2.40  1.16

That shows he's capable of being a reliable option. He gives up his fair share of hits (7.7 H/9) and walks (3.9 BB/9) but makes up for it with a high strikeout rate (career 9.9 K/9), which helps him escape some jams. If he could cut down on the walks, Mets fans would greatly appreciate it.

Bobby Parnell—He may not officially own the 8th inning, but he will, and could even find himself closing games if either Francisco falters or suffers an injury. We all know about the triple-digit heat, but, thank Izzy, he developed another pitch: the knuckle-curve. Yep, that pitch that was made famous by the former member of Generation K, now lives on to K another day. Parnell has used that pitch well, through a scoreless Spring (though Spring stats don't mean much, I admit) and now has a complementary pitch to his electric fastball. Also, Sandy Koufax (ever heard of him?) has worked with Parnell, encouraging him to use his pitches up and down in the zone to change the batter's eye-level. So, Parnell is pitching now, more than just throwing the ball hard.

The knock on Parnell is he allows too many walks and hits, but like Francisco, he escapes jams by striking out a lot of batters (9.7 K/9). This Spring, he only walked 2 batters in 9.1 innings—let's hope that continues. Parnell gives up a lot of hits, but they're usually singles. In fact, over the last two seasons since he's been used exclusively out of the 'pen, he has allowed the 3rd lowest percentage of hits for extra bases among all relief pitchers. Only 17% of the hits he's allowed have been for extra bases, while by comparison, Mariano's at 23%, Valverde 27%, K-Rod 30%, Papelbon 34%. That's a great quality to have in a late-inning pitcher, because obviously it's a lot harder for the opposition to score runs when they have to string together several singles as opposed to getting one guy on base and driving him home with a double or a homer. If he can cut down on the singles, he has a chance to be a dominant closer in the near future.

Manny Acosta—I really like his stuff. He was banished to Buffalo for the first two months last year, where he dominated (1.77 ERA, 12.0 K/9). The Mets finally smartened up and brought him up in June, where he got off to a rocky start, posting an ugly 11.05 ERA in his first 7 appearances, with a 2.18 WHIP, allowing 4 homers in 7.1 innings. The low point being the 7th game where he gave up 4 runs on 5 hits, 2 walks, and 2 homers in Texas. Thats the bad part. The awesome part is after that horrendous start, he pitched in 37 more games, posting a 2.04 ERA and 1.24 WHIP while allowing only 2 homers. What changed? I can only guess that he was so used to dominating minor league hitters, it took him a while to adjust to facing big-leaguers. He also cut down on his walks going from a career rate of 4.5 BB/9 down to 2.9 BB/9 last season.

John Rauch—He's an absolute monster at 6'10 & 290 lbs. Unfortunately he tops out around 89 mph. He's neither great nor terrible, but he's coming off his worst season as a relief pitcher posting his highest ERA, WHIP and lowest K/9 rate of his career. I actually don't really have high hopes for him, other than he'll come in handy if we get into any brawls this year. Hopefully, though, he also pitches more to his career numbers with an under 4 ERA. There's been talk of him stepping in as closer if Francisco gets hurt, but I don't love that idea. I'd give Parnell a shot over Rauch, though he does have a lot of closing experience, which definitely helps if Parnell truly doesn't have that "closer mentality" they're always talking about.

Ramón Ramírez—An ERA under 3.00 each of the last four years with KC, BOS, and SF—why should this year be any different? Probably the best thing we'll get out of the Angel Pagan trade, since Torres seems to be one of those athletes who's hits the weightroom too much for his own good—he should put down the dumbells and start doing Yoga a few days a week.

Tim Byrdak—He surprisingly didn't start the season on the DL despite having knee surgery just a few weeks before Opening Day. He did a solid job for the Mets last year as Pedro Feliciano's replacement, holding lefties to a .222 average with 36 strikeouts vs only 6 walks. As long as he isn't exposed to too many righty hitters he should be fine. If that knee acts up on him, there's a guy named Josh Edgin, who impressed in Spring Training, waiting in the minors to fill-in. I'm kinda upset he shaved the Hulk Hogan blonde handlebar moustache.

Miguel Batista—He's 41, and has played for a dozen teams in his career. Not a terrible spot-starter/long-relief man as he has shown that he can still be effective at times, even tossing a complete-game shutout vs. the Reds in the final game last year. Also a good veteran guy to have around to help develop the young pitchers in the bullpen.

This bullpen has great potential, we can't really afford to lose anyone to injury. We had a sick bullpen in 2006 but one late-night cab ride by Duaner Sanchez changed everything. Suddenly we were minus a power-hitting outfielder and a set-up man, and Guillermo Mota was being called upon to get clutch outs in the NLCS. I'd also like to add that under no circumstances should D.J. Carrasco be allowed to pitch for the Mets this year. He sucks.

Now for the far less statistical analysis of this 2012 squad: the intangibles.

As I mentioned earlier, a dark cloud has been lifted from over this franchise now that the Bernie Madoff fiasco is basically a thing of the past. This has to have a positive impact on the 2012 season and beyond. Even though there's more money to spend on players, I think Alderson and Mets ownership will not go on any foolhardy spending sprees, but spend money on some key pieces to plug holes wherever they may be (LF anyone?).

I noticed there were a number of freak injuries that were occuring that amazingly did NOT involve Mets players! A.J. Burnett broke an orbital bone bunting a ball in batting practice. Joba Chamberlain had a horrible ankle injury training for Cirque du Soleil. Boston's new closer, Andrew Bailey is out for 3-4 months after hurting his thumb on a collision while covering first base on a routine grounder. Other injuries included two closers needing Tommy John surgery: Soria of KC, and Madson of Cincy. The slew of injuries that have befallen the Mets over the past 3 years should give them some sort of Karmic reprieve this season (let's assume Wright's injury is nothing serious).

Just to reiterate what I said in my original post, this team looks like they believe in temselves, in their own talent, and all of them have a lot to prove. There aren't too many players on this roster who are set with long-term 9-digit contracts. If that can't motivate these guys to play to their fullest potential, nothing can. The manager also won't let them hang their heads, or wait for some kind of savior to be traded for or signed via free-agency; they know they have to win with what they've got, and what they've got can be enough if things break right.

All the Mets need to do is get that 2nd wild card, win their play-in game, and then they have as good a chance as anyone to win it all. You gotta be in it to win it, so sneak into the playoffs any way you can and take it from there. The NL East has no powerhouse team that will just dominate like the '06 Mets or '09-10 Phillies, so they could even get into the playoffs through the front door by winning the division. Let go Mets! Ya gotta believe...

Previous posts:

Part 1—The Offense
Part 2—The Starting Rotation

It was fun while it lasted

2012-04-13T09:15:00.002-04:00

After starting 4-0, the Mets have followed their stellar start with a less-than-stellar performance in the next two games. After posting a combined 1.31 ERA for the first four games, the staff posted a 2.90 ERA the past two games, which isn't bad in of itself, but when the offense puts up 2 runs in 2 games, then it becomes a problem. The fact that Wright has been down for the past two games also crippled the line-up, but there are other capable hitters in our lineup to pick up the slack for at least one game of the short series with Washington.

What infuriated me the very most about Wednesday's game was the amount of free runs we gave the Nationals. We gave them 4 runs; 3 off walks, and 1 off a wild pitch. 10 walks simply won't win ANY team a baseball game. Giving a team like the Nats who are scrappy and pester a pitching staff extra outs is asking for trouble.

This weekend series against Philadelphia will be telling of how we can bounce back, given our poor performance in the past two games. We can really see the dynamic edge that the Mets are missing from Reyes' absences; from the balls up the middle that Tejada can't quite get, or those infield hits that we are edged by a step.

This team is no longer a team of superstars, but a team of mostly role players. Each person has a job to do, and cannot do more than he is asked, and cannot think he can do more than he is asked. This group must work as a collective, like in the first 4 victories.
As long as this happens, then we have a chance.

Omar Minaya's Parting Gift

2012-04-12T09:00:00.000-04:00

Spit out the words Omar Minaya within a circle of Mets fans and you will sure to get back some strong sentiments. Mind you, those sentiments would mostly be of the negative kind.

No doubt about it, Omar Minaya made some terrible moves during his Mets tenure. Who can forget the Oliver Perez, Luis Castillo, Tom Glavine, Moises Alou, and the current Jason Bay disaster?

Minaya has been and continues to be criticized to no end. But when you take emotion out of the equation and look at the facts there is no denying the fact that the Mets were relevant during his time. Plus, we are now seeing more fruits of his labor.

His name is resurfacing quietly in recent days considering the Mets line up is filled with players that can be attributed to Omar Minaya’s regime. All of the players below entered the Mets organization while Minaya was the General Manager.

Ike Davis
Lucas Duda
Kirk Nieuwenhuis
Daniel Murphy
Mike Pelfrey
Ruben Tejada
Josh Thole
Jonathon Niese
Dillon Gee
Bobby Parnell
David Wright (Drafted in 2001 when Minaya was assistant to Steve Phillips.)

These players are basically the 2012 Mets. So for all the shit he got and the objectionable view that the Mets farm system was bare, let’s give some credit where credit is due.

Fans tend to quickly forget the positives and the better things that actually happened under his watch.

Then there’s also Matt Harvey, Minaya’s final #1 selection, Jeurys Familia who he signed from the Dominican Republic in 2007, and Jenrry Mejia also from Dominican Republic who was signed as an international free agent. These guys are knocking on the major league door with high expectations.

Here is a snapshot of the more notable pick ups Minaya was responsible for. Some good, some bad.

2005
Xavier Nady (Traded Mike Cameron to Padres)
Carlos Delgado (Traded Mike Jacobs, Yusmeiro Petit, and Grant Posmas to Marlins)
Paul LoDuca (Traded Gaby Sanchez and Dante Brinkley to Marlins)

2006
Duaner Sanchez (Traded Jae Wong Seo and Tim Hamulack to Dodgers for Sanchez and Steve Schmoll
Orlando Hernandez (Traded Jorge Julio to Diamondbacks)
Jorge Julio and John Maine (Traded Kris Benson to Orioles)
Oliver Perez and Roberto Hernandez (Traded Xavier Nady to Pirates)
Shawn Green (Traded Evan MacClane to Diamondbacks, received cash also)
Mike Nickeas (Traded Victor Diaz to Rangers)
John Adkins and Ben Johnson (Traded Heath Bell and Royce Ring to Padres)
Ambiorix Burgos (Traded Brian Bannister to Royals)

2007
Ryan Church and Brian Schneider (Traded Lastings Milledge To Nationals)
Luis Castillo (Traded Dustin Martin and Drew Butera to Twins)

2008
Angel Pagan (Traded Corey Coles and Ryan Meyers to Cubs)
Johan Santana (Traded Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey, and Deolis Guerra to Twins)
JJ Putz, Sean Reed, and Jeremy Reed (Traded Aaron Heilman, Endy Chavez, Jason Vargas, Mike Carp, Ezequiel Carrera and Maikel Cleto to Mariners)

2009
Billy Wagner (Traded Chris Carter and Eddie Lora to Red Sox)
Jeff Francoeur (Traded Ryan Church to Braves)

Free Agents
Jose Valentin
Julio Franco
Endy Chavez
Chad Bradford
Francisco Rodriguez
Jason Bay

Not too shabby...

Minaya’s Mets [New York Post]

The Joys of Rebuilding

2012-04-10T10:10:00.001-04:00

Matt Harvey; Jeurys Familia; Zack Wheeler; the obvious names. However, for the first time in a long time, in Flushing and throughout the vast array of parks and places that together make up the Mets Farm system, there are a bevy of other names that seem destined to make it to the big show.

Josh Edgin; Jordanny Valdespin; Juan Lagares; the names starting to make noise as potential, late-season call-ups. In just two paragraphs we've mentioned enough names to make up half of a starting lineup, including a reliever, a closer and an extra starter. Considering that the combo of Davis and Duda seem poised for a lengthy stay at Citi Field; that David Wright should be extended; and the recent long-term retention of middle-rotation horse Jon Niese, could it be that we're starting to see the "Future Mets" that in a letter to season ticket subscribers, Sandy Alderson seemed to promote if not state full-fledged reliance on.

Allow me to draw a parallel. As a lifelong New York Rangers fan, I've tasted the glory, witnessed the downfall, and remained patient as the team began to construct itself the right way, through the draft, player development, and merit-based promotions. Only after 10 years of endless hole-plugging and disappointment did the names of Ryan Callahan, Brandon Dubinsky, Marc Staal and a plethora of other home-growns start to emerge not only as every day players, but necessary cogs in the wheels bearing the Eastern-Conference championship load.

Look at the Rangers now! They built a solid roster and brought in the last remaining free-agent piece (Brad Richards) to make them long-term competitors. Plus, through the youthful infusion, the Rangers are neither up against the salary cap nor starved of reserves of future, potential Rangers.

Wilmer Flores; Cesar Puello; Domingo Tapia; Jenrry Mejia; Matt Den Dekker; Philip Evans; Michael Fulmer; dare i say... Reese Havens; etc.

While MLB doesn't have the same cap restrictions of its NHL brethren, only a recluse could have escaped word of the financial tumult that has swarmed the Mets Clubhouse since "Madoff", the name that's become more so an event in time.

As a result, the Mets do have cap restrictions. So what do they do? Begin grooming youngsters. Let Ruben Tejada play and earn his (pin) stripes. Let Lucas feel it out in the outfield and Ike Davis log a full season at first. Keep the wily veteran (D-Wright) and gradually let the older, deadweight expire (sorry Jason Bay).

The injury to Andres Torres expedited the process, as the Mets are likely to, as a result, dedicate significant time to testing Kirk Nieuwenhuis' ability to function as the full-time center fielder. He's got the range and the bat... now we'll see whether he has the baseballs.

Look, we might not win this year. If a crazy series of events and coincidences play out, we might even finish atop the East. But the timing for our rebuild is just right - let the other division competitors hit their peaks or fizzle out. And when the time is right, the Mets will have an organization, not just a team, built from the ground up, with stars in Flushing and competent replacements waiting in the wings of Savannah, Kingsport, Brooklyn and elsewhere.

We'll restore the faith of the old fans and develop alleigances with the hordes of new ones looking for something "other" than the Yankees. They'll be our Mets, that we grew with like the '86 fans grew with Doc and Darryl and Hojo. And in time, in Flushing, through rebuilding, we'll again come to believe.

Lets Go Mets!

Mets Fantasy Projections: Part 3 - the Staff

2012-04-09T09:00:00.000-04:00

Last year, Terry appointed Pelf as the opening day starter. This year, Pelf will be lucky if he's slotted 4th and will most likely be the last link in the 5-guy rotation. What does this mean?

Well, all things being equal (including Pelfrey's anemic spring training performances during this and last year), the Mets' pitching staff should be significantly improved. Looking back, the Mets pitching staff supplied a majority of the bright moments from the 2011 season including Gee's emergence, Niese's occasional dominance, and Dickey's consistency, with a few other bright-eyed stories intertwined.

Last year Pelfrey was our supposed #1. Now he's a #4 or #5. Things are getting better. And of course, there's that Johan Santana guy, as well as a few potential gems waiting in the wings of Buffalo and Binghamton. So, what can we draw from all this jargon? That there might actually be a few fantasy gems among the staff, after all.

SP: Johan Santana
Last Year: ... (Lets call a spade a spade and leave the past behind us, here)
This Year: While its unrealistic to expect Johan to return to the 234 inning, 206 K, 2.34 ERA ace he was in his first go around with the Mets, he does look healthy; he is locating his pitches; and, he is creating velocity separation between his fastball and his off-speed pitches.

In fantasy, we project based on the expected output of a whole season, and then factor in risk. If we were to approach valuation in the reverse order, we'd never see a guy like Johan get taken. In other words - fathom the best case scenario, then calculate the odds the player will produce. So lets assume Johan's healthy. In 2010, his velocity wasn't quite where it was in 2008, a natural product of throwing many innings. That year he threw 200 innings, had 150 K's and an ERA hovering around 3. This spring, Johan, Terry, Sandy and Dan are telling us everything we want to hear about his progress. If even half of its true, then numbers in the same ballpark as the 2010 production seem approachable. If Johan hits those numbers, 14-16 wins is doable.

Where to Draft: Now that we've established expectations, we factor in risk. Absent injury history, numbers like those would provide grounds to draft Johan in the 6th or 7th round. Of course, there is the lingering potential for a setback. Luckily, as Mets fans, we're more in tune with exactly how strong his progress has been this far and therefore, can probably stand to wait a few additional rounds before taking Johan off the board. Grabbing an Ace in the 11th or 12th round to compliment your already strong staff would be a coup worthy of early MOTY consideration.

Comparables: If Johan hits the projected numbers, he'll be in the same ballpark that Jon Lester, Tim Hudson, Hiroki Kuroda and Josh Beckett were in last year - and all four were top 30/40 pitchers overall - therein lies the potential for a later-round steal.

X:Factor: Is he healthy? From his days spent shouldering the Twins (no thanks to Francisco Liriano, Brad Radke and the rest), and his early time with the Mets, Johan has pitched a lot of innings. As a result, he's become notoriously susceptible to wear and tear. Best you can do here is cross your fingers and hope for a Modern Met Miracle.

SP: Jon Niese
Last Year: Niese had a nice year, showed some improvement on his curveball and some ability to get out of testy, crowded-base situations. But, his innings went down, strike outs went down, and ERA went up.

This Year: I like Niese to take that next step, either becoming a permanent #3 or, perhaps hitting his spots on a more consistent basis and showing glimpses of becoming a reliable #2. Niese's walks and WHIP were down last year suggesting that the statistical areas he suffered in might have been from an abnormally high BABIP (batting average on balls in play) which is more often than not out of the pitcher's hand. 14 wins, 160 strikeouts and an ERA under 4 and you can color me happy.

Where to Draft: Hold off until your starting line-ups are full and potent, both pitching and hitting-wise. Then, put Niese on your watch list. If he's still around in those late rounds where the guys getting drafted are unlikely to play, show your Met orange and blue and take a flyer.

Or don't. Niese is unlikely to be picked in any league and absent a blazing start to the season, should be available on waivers for some time. Another instance where the Mets fan advantage will let you respond quicker than the rest of the nation's fans, based on our more immediate access to performance appraisals. Does everyone have the same benefit with their own team? NO, because only the Mets are made up of so many question marks.

Comparables: If all goes according to plan (and why wouldn't it?) Niese should see himself in the same neighborhood that housed Daniel Hudson, Matt Harrison, Mike Leake and Ted Lilly last year. Hudson would be the high-end, and if Niese gets there you can be sure he'll be claimed. If he comes in closer to the others, expect him to be available or an occasional pick-up/drop on the wire.

X-Factor: Niese doesn't strike out a lot of guys. His ERA is never great and he lets men on base. If we assume he'll K a similar proportion of batters faced, the stat where he has most room to improve is in wins. More wins will require greater run support and that, in turn, will come down to whether the walls coming in can save our power guys and/or whether Duda is the hero and savior Terry is unafraid to make him out to be.

SP: R.A. Dickey
Last Year: Some might argue that R.A. Dickey is an underrated fantasy player, given his propensity to keep the ERA down, produce a moderate K/BB rate (impacting positively his WHIP, a measured statistic in many standard fantasy leagues). Those people wouldn't be wrong. Last year however, as per Yahoo, Dickey was around the 400th most valuable player across both pitching and fielding sectors. But, Dickey struck out nearly 140 batters, kept an ERA a little over 3, had an solid WHIP of 1.2 and pitched a lot of innings.

So why the 400 categorization, you ask?

This Year: And there in lies the rub - When R.A. Dickey pitches, the Mets don't win. Last year, despite his gaudy numbers, Dickey was only credited with 8 wins in 32 starts. With 13 losses to boot, we can't credit the low W total to non-decisions. Rather, when R.A. Dickey pitched, the Mets failed to put up runs.

So what can we expect this year? Well, on a course for optimism, I'm going to say that the anchor to Dickey's ship, run production, will be lifted by the winds of David's, Jason's, Lucas' and Ike' bats and Dickey's win total will go up. Even four or five more wins across the season would catapult Dickey into the "of fantasy value" category. Mark us down as expecting 13 wins, 150 K's, an ERA of approximately 3 and a solid WHIP as the coup de gras.

Where to Draft: As a Mets fan, I like taking Dickey... as opposed to slyly stealing him off of waivers. I want people to assume I'm a homer taking a risk for the sake of familiarity on my roster. They're right. I am a homer. I do like Dickey and I like being able to start him in interleague play where the opposition has yet to see his knuckler. But homerism aside, Dickey is consistent and, assuming that little run production problem is solved, valuable. In my two drafts I took him with my last and second to last pick. My pitching staff is typically reliever heavy (explained later) so the innings Dickey provides become valuable. Taking him in a similar spot in your draft (assuming mixed league), is a safe pick with decent upside.

Comparables: A slight increase in wins would put Dickey in Doug Fister category. Fister's getting drafted in the 15-16th rounds in many leagues. Because of Dickey's low win production last year, you could sneak that Fister value in later rounds. Dickey's projected season would put him before Shawn Marcum, who's falling in 13th-16th rounds across the various platforms. I personally expect Tim Hudson like numbers from Dickey this year. So, in my eyes, my last round Dickey selection was one of my stronger steals.

X:Factor: Two: 1) are NL east teams any closer to figuring out the knuckler? 2) can we score some stinkin' runs on the days he starts.

Relief Pitchers
I go early and often on closers. The reasons are simple and plentiful - high K/inning rate; padding your Save stats which are worth the same as a win in rotisserie leagues; while expending a lot less innings; greater predictability; efficient flamethrowers have low ERA's and low WHIP's; and, the better ones are available longer given the tendency for other managers to concentrate on starters. As evidenced by the Dickey comments, no position has as much volatility as relievers. Either you're getting saves or you aren't. Wins can still be amassed by clever, creative, knowledgeable later-round guessing. Closers are limited and thus, for everyone you take, someone else loses saves.

There is also the occasional value in set-up men. Like Closers, in the right situation, they can pick up wins; can keep their ERA's low and eat few innings. However, absent the added benefit of saves, a reliever must register a lot of strikeouts to be worthy of a spot. Examples: in 2010, Joaquin Benoit was a horse, with a great K/inning rate, who helped me to a league title. Last year, the Yankees' David Robertson played a similar role.

As currently built, the Mets lack a set-up man dominant enough to deserve a roster spot. But they do have a closer.

Closer: Frank Francisco
Last Year: With all due respect Frank, "ehhhh." You weren't great last year. In fact, you've never really been great. You set a career second best with 17 saves and struck out less than a batter per inning. Although we can mask it with other relievers and R.A., your ERA was high for a late inning reliever and you let a lot of men on base.

This Year: And, you're no spring chicken. Plus, we've got Rauch ready and willing to close, Parnell looking reformed in Spring Training, Josh Edgin rocketing through the minors and, that Mike Pelfrey guy who come Matt Harvey's arrival might be looking for a new role (if not a new team). Will Terry give you a chance to work through any early season troubles or will this position quickly be one of committee? These questions remain unanswered and with a plethora of other, reliable closers likely to be available in the first ten rounds (when i stress is the RIGHT time to load up on at least three), I'm not putting you on my watch list until at least the last few rounds. For, there is a chance you save 35 games, strike out 65 and keep an ERA under 2. But with the Mets, the words "there's a chance" seem to have less meaning.

Comparables: Jordan Walden, Huston Street, Andrew Bailey - hit your targets and you'll be a steal in anything after the 14th round, like these guys. Miss them and come May we'll be plotting who next to promote to the spot.

Thanks folks. Feel free to ask any questions you have regarding your fantasy teams or coming fantasy drafts.

Go Mets!

Undefeated and Proud

2012-04-06T08:00:00.000-04:00

"Big Time Win" - that's a phrase that's going to get over-used this season as just about all of the predictions have the Mets a slight notch above AAA ball. Do I think they'll be great, no. As much as I'd love a storybook season, I don't believe the Mets will make like the Cleveland Indians in Major League and surprise everyone, reignite the city, convince the Japanese grounds crew that they're not shitty and end with Gary Cohen screaming into the mic, "The Mets win it! The Mets win it! Oh my God the Mets win it!"

But so what? Are we supposed to abandon our team when they're down? Should we turn Citi Field into a ghost town and act as though the team isn't worth our time? Should we let anyone take away from us the precious victories the team attains this season?

I say no.

I say that what makes a Met fan, a Met fan is the fact that we still get excited at the possibility of being better than we're "supposed" to be. That winning hasn't become boring and tiresome to us, we still appreciate every single check that goes in the W column no matter who the opponent is. We go to the ballpark or tune in on TV even if Roy Halladay is pitching against us. Because we believe.

Let's be honest for a second, our two World Series wins - they rank atop the list of the most unlikely championships in the history of sports. And that's a good thing, because Mets fans cherish the opportunity for that next unlikely moment. That next chance to celebrate while everyone else is scratching their heads wondering "How the hell did that happen?" It doesn't have to make sense, but, "you gotta believe".

The season is going to be rough, that's a given, we all know that. And chances are, if you are friends with Yankee fans they're going to spend as much time telling you how bad the Mets are as they will telling you how great the Yankees are. But we saw what happened last year, the Mets were better than expected. They were exciting and captivating at times during the season and that comes from a mindset that the "Investment Banker Fans of the Bronx" don't get. They look at the standings like a portfolio, and their feelings are almost entirely based on the Yankees position relative to Boston, or now, Tampa Bay. A win is just a slight return on their initial investment. And heaven forbid they were to drop a game to a low-end team like the As, it's infuriating to them, as if they were the ones who had just been ripped off by Bernie Madoff.

There's no fun when you think you're above losing. The less likely you are to win, the better it feels when you do. Like when that girl who is totally out of your league says yes; your boss agrees to your 15% raise request; they have those designer shoes, in your size, and their 25% off when you get to the register. Uncertainty creates excitement, and excitement is good.

Simply put, we're 1-0. We're going to lose a bunch of games (how many is yet to be seen) from here on out, so we're going to celebrate and enjoy each and every win this season, because that's what fans do.

Photo courtesy of Tumbler

Sexy Mets Giveaways All Season Long

2012-04-05T09:00:00.000-04:00

Playball! Opening Day is finally here. Lets Go Mets!

They say we don't have a great team to cheer about going into the season, that much we'll see. Don't try telling that to the die-hards out there, we'll still root for our team like there's no tomorrow.

We'll also bitch them out when its necessary and called for. It really does help get through the tough times. It's therapeutic, try it.

That said, we're going to keep things exciting all season long with give-aways and unique opportunities for our die hard audience, win or lose, playoffs or bust.

Mets tickets, no problem! We're giving away pairs of Mets tickets courtesy of SeatCrew starting with Mets vs Phillies on 5/30.

Need a shirt to wear to the game? No problem! We're giving away a bunch of quality men's and women's 'Mets Are Better Than Sex' tee shirts all year long.

Want to new perspective on Citi Field? We're teaming up with Jetty Jumpers offering fans Citi Field Jet Ski Tours.

More to come. Get our twitter updates. Check us on Facebook. Lets go Mets!
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I

Mets Add Luxury Bleachers

2012-04-04T13:10:00.000-04:00

Man this team just doesn't get it.

They moved the fences in, something that was inevitable. Ok great. By doing this, the team saw an opportunity to add more seating between the old left field wall and the new one. Great.

This means fans closer to the action both dimensionally and due to the fact that the height of the wall was reduced to an 8-foot wall. Great.

They've turned it into a 'party area' to accommodate groups of 25-102. Awesome.

The cost?

$100- $200!

Are you shitting me?

They can talk this one up till the grass turns orange. They can sell you all the bells and whistles about why it's worth the money till the cowbells go home. No matter how they try to sell this one, this is what it is, nothing but a glorified bleacher seating area.

We get it, it's a great revenue opportunity for a cash strapped team and they should take full advantage. Hello, earth to front office, it's still the outfield, and while it's kind of cool its not the best pace to watch a game.
But did anyone think about the current economy? Did anyone realize the state of the team at the moment which is in dire straights? Are they not aware that the fans are fed up and that the ball park was empty last year and will be again this year unless there is a drastic turnaround and the team miraculously starts winning?

What is wrong with these people?

$100- $200 bucks for a bleacher seat that is not called Wrigley Field? They are out of their fucking minds.

Suggestion: Charge $25 for tickets, groups only, and watch that area sell out for every game, create some buzz around it, and have people clamoring to sit there.

Reality: Fans watching will see an empty section as home runs will fly in that direction and TV cameras will easily capture the emptiness the same way they did with the empty expensive seats behind home plate.

Smart, real smart! How many hobos does it take to turn on a light bulb?
Mets add seats between old, new LF walls [ESPN]

Time Must Be Wright for David

2012-04-04T09:00:00.000-04:00

David Wright is now THE man. In years past, the Mets 3rd basemen has been accompanied by other star players such as Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, and Carlos Delgado. But now, with the departure of the aforementioned stars, David stands alone as undoubtedly the face of a fallen franchise.

Just six short years ago, the future of the NewYork Mets could not have been brighter. They featured a plethora of all-stars (Glavine, Reyes, Wright, Beltran, Lo Duca) on a division winning team that also had future "stars" of tomorrow in their minor league system (Milledge, Gomez, Martinez). But following heartbreak, a collapse, injuries, legal troubles, and the fallout of the minor league studs, the New York Mets are now a team fighting to earn their own fans respect. Only one player remains from that 2006 Mets team, and that player is David Wright.

Since the Mets have moved to Citi Field, it seems as if Wright has left his best years at Shea. Bitten by the injury bug and a clear hatred for the dimensions of his new ballpark, we've witnessed David's strikeout numbers rise, while his average, home run, and rbi total have all plummeted. A once prominent opposite field hitter, Wright has struggled going the other way since the move to spacious Citi Field.

With all this said, their is no better time than now for David to break out and return to his prominent form once again. The dimensions of Citi Field have been moved closer, the walls have been shortened, and the expectations for the Mets have never been lower. An expected last place finish in arguably the best division in baseball should bring no added pressure for the now only superstar of the Mets.

There is no longer an argument over who the man is in orange and blue. The Mets made it clear that Wright is their man by letting Jose Reyes walk away. Trading Wright at any point would be foolish of the Mets front office and only further turn Met fans away from their team. Fans would love to see the Mets commit to Wright long term and make him a Met forever.

He can go down in history as possibly the greatest New York Met of all time. He is on pace to break almost every significant offensive category in team history, and the Mets owe it to their fans to keep Wright in New York as long as possible. Hopefully one day David will bring us the World Series title that we deserve, and we will one day watch as the #5 is retired forever.

The Mets Will Win the World Series in 2012: Part 2

2012-04-03T09:00:00.003-04:00

The Starting Rotation

I’m hoping the 2012 Mets can emulate the 2006 Mets, who coulda/shoulda/woulda won the World Series. The '06 Mets won 97 games thanks in large part to their powerful lineup and amazing bullpen. I already wrote about what I think the Mets lineup can do, and I’ll get to the bullpen later. But first, let’s take a look at the starting rotation.

The 2012 Mets may have a better rotation than the 2006 Mets. Don’t laugh. Forget about career numbers: would you rather have the 2012 versions of Santana, Dickey, Pelfrey, Niese, and Gee or the 2006 versions of Glavine, Pedro, Trachsel, El Duque, and Victor Zambrano/John Maine? I'll take my chances with our current rotation.

One of the many criticisms I’ve heard about the Mets pitching is the “lack of depth”. Well, exactly how much depth did the ’06 Mets have? Only Glavine and Trachsel stayed healthy all year, while Pedro, Duque and Zambrano struggled with injuries. The original starting rotation combined for 110 starts that season, with the remaining 52 starts being picked up by the likes of John Maine, Alay Soler, Ollie Perez, Brian Bannister, David Williams(who?), Mike Pelfrey, Jose Lima(RIP), and Geremi Gonzalez(RIP). The only member of that motley crew to pitch well was John Maine (6-5, 3.60 ERA in 15 starts). The rest of them combined for a record of 10-13, with a 6.08 ERA in 37 starts. I think the Mets farm system can produce some better replacements than that (ahem Matt Harvey, Jeurys Familia, Zack Wheeler). Hell, maybe Chris Young can even chip-in with a few starts before his inevitable injury.

As far as the new fences at Citi Field are concerned, I'm not sure what to think. Logic tells me that the Mets will give up more homers this year. Dan Warthen claims that it will actually help the pitching staff, because he felt the pitchers were getting lazy and relying on the deep fences to bail them out the last couple of years, whereas now they'll have to bear down and focus on keeping the ball in the park. We'll find out soon enough.

Johan Santana—Obviously the Mets don’t stand a chance this year if Johan doesn’t stay healthy and pitch like we’re all used to. He’s looked good so far (knock on wood) as he continues to build up his stamina during Spring Training, and he’s on track to pitch Opening Day. As long as his arm doesn’t fall off, Johan will be out there doing everything in his power to win ballgames. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up playing center field in between starts if he has to.

R. A. Dickey—Our most consistent player over the last two years. He’s also my favorite player on the team. How can you not love a guy who just climbed Mt. Kilimanjaro, and in 2010 aspired to be a ball-man for the U.S. Open, like a real-life Kramer? Also Kramer-esque is Dickey’s brutal honesty—he doesn’t just give reporters some canned sports clichés like Derek Jeter would. For example last April he told reporters the Mets might not be as good as they thought they were. It may have been a wake-up call for the Mets, who had just lost 9 of 10 and sat at 5-13 on the season, because they went on to win their next 6 games after his assessment. Every team needs a guy like that in the locker room.

Dickey deserved a lot better than an 8-13 record last year, as he led the majors with 8 "tough losses". A tough loss is when a pitcher is charged with a loss despite pitching a Quality Start (at least 6 innings and 3 earned runs or less). He was 17th best in the majors with 22 quality starts (easily leading the Mets) tied with studs like C.C. Sabathia, and Felix Hernandez. I expect Dickey to continue to do what he’s done for the last two years: pitch his ass off and give the Mets a fighting chance every time he steps on the mound. I also think he has a chance to be the first Mets pitcher to throw a no-hitter.

Mike Pelfrey—I'm pretty confident he will never pitch a no-hitter, but he never gets hurt, so expect the usual 30 starts and 200 innings. How he'll pitch in those 200 innings, though, is anybody's guess. Since 2008, he's alternated good year (in bold below) then bad year:

 Yr  W-L  ERA   GS   IP    ER   H   BB   K   H/9  HR/9 GDP
'08 13-11 3.72  32  200.2  86  209  64  110  9.4   0.5  29
'09 10-12 5.03  31  184.1 103  213  66  107  10.4  0.9  15
'10 15-9  3.66  33  204.0  83  213  68  113  9.4   0.5  25
'11 7-13  4.74  34  193.2 102  220  65  105  10.2  1.0  15

In trying to make sense of the numbers to see what contributed to his success/failure, I was a little stumped, because if you ignore ERA and W-L record, his other stats are incredibly consistent (see hits, walks, strikeouts). But there are three apparently crucial categories that seem to largely determine Pelf's results: Hits and HR per 9 innings pitched (H/9 & HR/9), and ground-ball double plays (GDP). In Mike's bad years he gave up about 1 hit and 0.5 more homers per 9 innings, and only half as many ground-ball double plays. This shows how important it is for him to keep the ball down in the zone, because when he elevates his pitches they end up as fly-balls, and more fly-balls leads to more home runs (not to mention how difficult it is to turn a 6-4-3 double play on a fly ball). He's also the type of pitcher who doesn't respond well to the defense giving the opposition extra outs, so the infield can't make errors or fail to turn two when he's pitching, because that's when he crumbles. The good news is, he's due for a good year. If he heeps the ball in the park, and gets a little help from his defense, he should do fine.

Jonathon Niese—In his young career, he's been a much better first-half pitcher (14-10, 3.87) than second-half (8-13, 5.09), perhaps due to questionable conditioning. Ahh but that was before the nose-job. According to advanced statistics, better days likely lay ahead. He has nasty stuff when he's on his game, with an excellent cutter and a very good curveball, but is he holding himself back by telegraphing pitches? Like Dickey, I wouldn't be surprised if Niese is the Met to finally throw a no-hitter. The Mets like Niese, and they gave him a five-year deal to prove it. If Niese takes that big step forward and is consistently good for a full season, the Mets are going to compete. Hopefully the new nose helps.

Dillon Gee—Another first-half pitcher last year(1st: 8-3, 3.76; 2nd: 5-3, 5.25), Gee either wore down from the long season, or the scouting reports caught up to him. I lean toward the former, and I think Gee'll be able to endure the wear and tear this year better than last. If he can cut down on the walks (4 per 9 innings) he should be able to work deeper into games and bring down his ERA. Also, he has a crazy beard.

Chris Young—I thought the Mets had a great chance at the wild-card last season if Young was able to stay healthy, and I'll say the same for 2012. Johan's shoulder issues will mean Terry might go with a 6-man rotation for parts of the season, in order to give Johan extra rest between starts. That might also help keep Chris Young's shoulder healthy. If not serving as a 6th starter, he might be serving as Pelfrey's replacement, should Pelfrey have an unprecedented 2nd bad year in a row. Young only made 4 starts each of the last two seasons before succumbing to injury, but he posted a 3-0 record and an amazing 1.43 ERA in those 8 starts. If he can stay healthy this 6-man rotation could be a force to be reckoned with.

Up next: Part 3—The Bullpen and the Intangibles
Previous post: Part 1—The Offense

Future Features: Dillon Gee

2012-04-02T09:00:00.000-04:00

Dillon Gee (Slgckgc/Flickr)

DOB: 5/28/1986

Height: 6'1” Weight: 204 lbs.

Position: Starting Pitcher

Current Team: New York Mets

Batting/Pitching: Right Handed

MABTS' Lowdown:

Dillon Gee is a very interesting pitcher for the New York Mets coming into the 2012 MLB Season. In 2011, Gee posted a 4.43 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP, but his ERA is not telling of the whole story. Gee gave up less hits than innings pitched and had a 1.6 to 1 K:BB ratio. While some may not be overwhelmed by such mediocre peripheral stats, Gee still has a ton of upside for the Mets and could develop into a very formidable starting pitcher for New York.

Opponents hit .248 against Gee last season and the pitcher only had a 6.39 K/9 rate, but the pitcher is still not a finished product. If Gee can harness more control of his pitches and develop the pin-point type of accuracy that accomplished veterans such as Andy Pettitte have, then the starting pitcher can have a lengthy career in the MLB. Gee possesses an average fastball (89-91 mph), a plus changeup (81-82 mph), and a slider, but he must have pinpoint control in order to have long term success at the major league level. A pitcher like Gee cannot afford to give up walks and must limit his damage via gopher ball. Even though such advice sounds elementary to the success of any pitcher in the MLB, Gee has only a slight window to work with since he lacks a dominant “put-out” pitch.

Even though Gee might not blow away his opponents and the scouts with his seemingly mediocre repertoire, there are still statistics that suggest that Gee could possibly pan out very well for the Mets. A recent Amazin Avenue article discussed the fact that Gee's swinging strike rate was surprisingly high for a pitcher with an average pitch selection. The article illustrated that Gee's opponents swung and missed at 9.1% of his pitches (a rate comparable to Jeremy Hellickson) despite his low strikeout rate. Assuming that Gee can command his pitches a little better, he should provide the Mets with a reliable, middle of the rotation starter who can eat his fair share of innings.

Gee has only had one full year of MLB experience, but he will see some significant time in the Mets' starting rotation this year. The 25 year old is very capable of being a successful pitcher at the major league level, but his control will ultimately decide his fate in the MLB. It's safe to say that any expectations for Gee to be an ace are farfetched, but the pitcher looks like he could anchor the middle to back end of a team's rotation. More will be known about Gee's progression this season and Met's fans should be excited about seeing what the young pitcher has to offer.

Pitch Selection:

Fastball (89-91 MPH)
Changeup (81-82 MPH)
Slider

MLB Experience:

2010 (33.0 IP, 2.18 ERA, 1.21 WHIP)
2011 (160.2 IP, 4.43 ERA, 1.38 WHIP)

Draft Data:

2007 (21^st Round)

Room for Improvement:

Better Control
Less Walks
Limiting Home Runs

Comparisons:

Steve Trachsel
Julian Tavarez

Other Potential Roles:

If a starting role doesn't work out for Gee, he could be used as a long reliever or a late inning bullpen option.

Potential Slot in Rotation:

Middle to end of the rotation starting pitcher.

This Tweet in Baseball: This one's a Laugher

2012-04-01T10:00:00.000-04:00

Wait, wait, wait, wait, WHAT!?>!?>!?>1

Here is the full tweet:

Gee, thanks Jose, didn't know you are an esteemed broker on Wall Street. Sorry for the confusion, I'll be sure to bring my $640 million to you after I win it.

This is Twitter gold, right? Wouldn't good ol' trustworthy, not-a-snitch, steroid-infused Jose be a good person to go to about your finances? I bought two tickets, and you better make damn sure that Jose will be the FIRST person I tell when I win.

Canseco is the type of guy that simply can't stop "helping" people. He loves it. He has even been quoted,

"Every time I've tried to help a woman, I've been incarcerated. I've learned my lesson. I'm not doing it again"

LOL. This dude is such a crock! His description on Twitter, of himself is the follows:

"Stand and fight for the truth. Don't let any person or group take advantage of you. Fight the liars and hypocrites. Good & honest people suffer too much."

Need I say more? If you had any previous doubt about Canseco's character, this should clear some of that up for you. Make your own inferences about this, but this just puts a bad taste in my mouth. Canseco will do anything to keep himself relevant. Remember when he was trying out for the Dodgers a few seasons back? We knew he wasn't coming back, and he knew it too.

Again, make your own conclusions, I'm just here providing the details.

MLB Shanks Opening Day With Blackouts

2012-03-29T09:00:00.004-04:00

Really MLB? That's how you want Opening Day 2012 to go down?

Not only did no one know that there was a baseball game played yesterday in Japan by Oakland and Seattle, opening day mind you, it wasn't even televised live except for in Seattle!

Even Oakland fans got bent over for the big MLB shaft. Imagine the Mets opening the season in Japan to wake up and find out it's not on live TV. I would be livid!

Not only that, MLB screwed Oakland A's fans so bad the game was even blacked out locally in California to MLB.TV subscribers while subscribers in other parts of the US were able to watch live!

Personally, I got up for work at 7am and expected a game on MLB Network. When I tuned in I got talking heads. Strange. The guide says Seattle vs Oakland baseball from 6am - 9am.

Was this a mistake? Did something happen and MLB just didn't have the rights to air the game? TV politics maybe?

No, just more MLB greed and a big fuck you to baseball fans all over the country. They gave most of the country the opening day game on tape delay via the tube. What a joke!

Just another reason MLB is lagging behind the NFL with no signs of turning the corner.

How will the NFL start their 2012 season you ask? Wednesday night Sept 5th, prime time game, Dallas Cowboys vs the champion New York Giants broadcast on national TV.

This is not brain surgery. More like common sense.

Fans get pumped for Opening Day. It's the symbol of summer, good weather, and the national pastime of this country. You wait all winter for this day to come. It's like a right of passage from the long winter to the sunny days of summer.

I get it, they were protecting their TV deal interests, but how could they be this stupid? Twitter was ablaze with complaints and it seemed like MLB took note, albeit a little too late as they decided to lift their blackout for today's game.

Obviously they don't care about doing the right thing by the fans. But that shouldn't surprise no one but we'll be sure to call them out on it.

Solution: Start the season off the right way, with 2 teams people care about watching, in prime time. If MLB wants to globalize the game, which I think is a great idea, find a way to do it during the season or some other time rather than opening day. Or at the very least, make it widely available to every American baseball fan in this country. Is that so much to ask?

MLB lifts blackout for Thursday's A's-Mariners game [CBS Sports]

Open Letter: MLB Killed the Radio Star

2012-03-28T09:00:00.001-04:00

Warning: This is going to get very rant-y. It really bothers me when someone tries to charge you for something readily available, or grossly overcharges for a simple commodity good - ex: Best Buy (and others) charging $20 for HDMI cables. They're $2, look on Amazon.
"So sit back, relax and strap on your seatbelts, you've never been on a ride like this before." (Dr. Dre)

Dear Major League Baseball,

Opening day, your crowning jewel, is quickly approaching, so what better time than now for me to remind you how greedy and un-fan-friendly you are. Charging people to LISTEN to baseball games?

Now let's be clear, I have no problems with charging for video broadcasts on MLB.TV, that's a great service for out of market fans, since, with the absence of a national television deal all of the rights are regional. But radio? C'mon now, you must be out your damn mind!

I know where you're thinking is at - "If people can listen to games, for free, then they won't go to the ballpark. They won't support their teams, and the league." And that, is probably one of the dumbest arguments I've ever heard. When do people listen to the radio? When they're in the car, at their desk at the office, on a train or anywhere else where they physically can't get to not only the game, but also a TV. Yes, there is a segment of fans who prefer to listen to games on the radio rather than watching them on TV, but you can blame Joe Buck for that.

What really pushes me over the edge though, is then you block the radio broadcast online. As you can probably tell, based on where this letter is written, I'm a Mets fan. That means, that sitting at a desk, in an office, during a workday I can stream Sports Radio 66 (The FAN) W-F-A-N, Neeew York on my computer and listen to everything that they're broadcasting, EXCEPT the 1:10 Mets game that I can't attend because I have that client thing which helps me pay the bills and make the money that I need so that I can go to the Saturday 12:35 game so that I can support the team, the league and everyone else who's getting a cut.

What if I was in Chicago where the trains run above ground so you can get a signal? I'm a Cubbies fan on my way to work while there's one of those legendary day game going on at Wrigley. In my seat I pull out my phone, and stream the local sports radio station only to find out that I can't hear the game. Really? Because that's detrimental to the league?

Technology has made the traditional radio obsolete. Steve Jobs put the nail in the coffin when he designed the iPod without the ability to receive radio signals. So now we have smart phones, but they don't receive radio signals, they just stream the station's content from the internet. You know, the content that you're blocking.

You're going to make me find an old radio and carry that with me so that the young kids can ask their parents, "Mommy, what is that man doing?"

"Oh, he's just trying to find the Cubs game. That's what we call a radio. He's trying to find the signal. See, before iPods and iPhones...blah, blah blah".

Or out in L.A. A business man, running through LAX can't get the Dodgers game on his phone while he's on his way to meet clients and investors to put together enough money to BUY the Dodgers to help support the league.

The only thing that radio has killed was Iams' morning show after his comments about the Rutgers Women's basketball team. And that didn't even stay dead. Being able to listen to your team play on the radio, for free, is not going to kill baseball. You know why I know that? Because the NFL is doing just fine.

That's right, the National Football League, the league that usurped yours and is now America's favorite professional sports league.

I've lived in San Francisco and London, different places but they have something in common - I can't watch a NY Giants game on TV. So, what are my options? Well I can watch the game online thanks to the fine people of Australia who make the games available (good-onya mates! And thanks again for Miranda Kerr) but I can also listen to them on the radio, for free, with the NFL mobile application. I could even select to hear the radio broadcast from San Francisco as the Giants were marching downfield on their way to the Super Bowl and relish the despair and disappointment in the 49ers' announcer's voices. Why? Because the NFL realizes that it's beneficial to the league to have their product available to anyone who wants to consume it. The more people who experience football, the more people who purchase tickets, merchandise, and talk about it on social media. All things that are good for them.

In closing, I hope that you will review your position on the matter and work diligently towards a solution that is more fan-friendly, because it's not the players or the owners who make Major League Baseball, it's the fans.

In the meantime, F you very much, I'm going to buy a cheap-ass radio from a guy on the street and listen to the next 10 years of Mets games (WHEN I am unable to attend in person, not INSTEAD of) for free.

Kindest Regards,
~Bob Tallman
On behalf of baseball fans

Images: Radio - Wikipedia.org
Miranda Kerr - Askmen.com

Citi Field Sky View

2012-03-26T09:00:00.000-04:00

Citi Field looking good from the sky. Hopefully the skills of the team that plays in it will look as good too. Not bad for a crappy Blackberry camera.

NYC shots...

Mets Get No Respect in Vegas

2012-03-23T08:30:00.000-04:00

What does Vegas think of the Mets to win the World Series? Well, could be worse. At least they think the 2012 Mets have a better shot than the Orioles, Astros, Pirates, Padres, and Mariners. But that's where the buck stops and it's nothing to get excited about. Only 5 teams with worse odds than yours truly.

They've also put the Mets at the same odds as the Royals and Athletics, 80/1. Getting excited yet?

Gets better. These teams have better odds than the Mets: White Sox, Indians, and Twins.

In terms of winning the NL pennant, well the Astros have the worse odds coming in at 100/1. Next worse is the Padres at 50/1. Then the Mets and Pirates at 40/1.

And when you break it down to winning the NL East, Vegas is outright abusing the Mets here. Dead worse by a landslide at 50/1. Mets are in their own basement bunker here. Phillies are the favorite, followed by the Marlins, then the Braves and the Nationals a close fourth. But the disparity between the Nationals and Mets is disgusting to look at.

So if you are a betting man and you have a ridiculous Mets good luck charm, for shits and giggles you could drop a measly $20 on the Mets to win the NL East for a shot at $1000, or be bolder and take them to win the Word Series and parley that $20 into $1600. But that would be like pissing $20 down the toilet.

No thanks! I'll take my chances on a game of poker and win or lose based on my own decisions, eliminating luck from the equation.

Odds to win the 2012 World Series
Arizona Diamondbacks 28/1
Atlanta Braves 22/1
Baltimore Orioles 150/1
Boston Red Sox 10/1
Chicago Cubs 40/1
Chicago White Sox 65/1
Cincinnati Reds 20/1
Cleveland Indians 60/1
Colorado Rockies 40/1
Detroit Tigers 8/1
Houston Astros 200/1
Kansas City Royals 80/1
Los Angeles Angels 7/1
Los Angeles Dodgers 40/1
Milwaukee Brewers 28/1
Miami Marlins 20/1
Minnesota Twins 75/1
New York Mets 80/1
New York Yankees 13/2
Oakland Athletics 80/1
Philadelphia Phillies 11/2
Pittsburgh Pirates 100/1
San Diego Padres 100/1
San Francisco Giants 15/1
Seattle Mariners 100/1
St. Louis Cardinals 25/1
Tampa Bay Rays 18/1
Texas Rangers 10/1
Toronto Blue Jays 40/1
Washington Nationals 30/1

Odds to win the 2012 NL Pennant
Arizona Diamondbacks 14/1
Atlanta Braves 9/1
Chicago Cubs 22/1
Cincinnati Reds 9/1
Colorado Rockies 18/1
Houston Astros 100/1
Los Angeles Dodgers 18/1
Miami Marlins 9/1
Milwaukee Brewers 14/1
New York Mets 40/1
Philadelphia Phillies 9/4
Pittsburgh Pirates 40/1
San Diego Padres 50/1
San Francisco Giants 7/1
St. Louis Cardinals 11/1
Washington Nationals 15/1

Odds to win the 2012 NL East
Atlanta Braves 6/1
Miami Marlins 11/2
New York Mets 50/1
Philadelphia Phillies 1/2
Washington Nationals 8/1

Odds to win the 2012 AL Pennant
Baltimore Orioles 75/1
Boston Red Sox 11/2
Chicago White Sox 35/1
Cleveland Indians 28/1
Detroit Tigers 4/1
Kansas City Royals 40/1
Los Angeles Angels 7/2
Minnesota Twins 40/1
New York Yankees 13/4
Oakland Athletics 40/1
Seattle Mariners 60/1
Tampa Bay Rays 9/1
Texas Rangers 11/2
Toronto Blue Jays 22/1

Odds to win the 2012 AL West
Los Angeles Angels 4/5
Oakland Athletics 30/1
Seattle Mariners 45/1
Texas Rangers 1/1

Odds to win the 2012 AL Central
Chicago White Sox 12/1
Cleveland Indians 10/1
Detroit Tigers 1/4
Kansas City Royals 12/1
Minnesota Twins 16/1

Odds to win the 2012 AL East
Baltimore Orioles 100/1
Boston Red Sox 3/1
New York Yankees 2/3
Tampa Bay Rays 9/2
Toronto Blue Jays 12/1

Odds to win the 2012 NL West
Arizona Diamondbacks 2/1
Colorado Rockies 7/1
Los Angeles Dodgers 11/2
San Diego Padres 15/1
San Francisco Giants 13/10

Odds to win the 2012 NL Central
Chicago Cubs 18/1
Cincinnati Reds 7/5
Houston Astros 100/1
Milwaukee Brewers 11/4
Pittsburgh Pirates 30/1
St. Louis Cardinals 19/10

*Based on odds from Las Vegas Sports Betting site

New Citi Field Fences Bad or Good?

2012-03-22T09:00:00.000-04:00

With all the fuss about moving in the fences and how it's supposed to be a huge lift for Mets hitters, I decided to take a closer look at the actual stats as far as home runs hit by the Mets batters at Citi Field vs the road, and home runs given up by Mets pitchers at home vs the road. The result did not surprise me and what we've been saying here all along.

One of the first things I thought about when the news broke about the decision to move in the fences was that yes it will help Mets hitters, but also, what will this mean to Mets pitchers. Will this help our hitters more than hurt our pitchers or vice versa?

Based on the numbers below, to me, this means doom to the Mets pitching staff. Granted, it's a small sample, but nevertheless, a good sample based on 3 years at Citi Field.

Mets Pitchers home runs given up (home v away)
2011 - 147 (Home - 58/ Road - 89)
2010 - 135 (Home - 47/ Road - 88)
2009 - 158 (Home - 81/ Road - 77)

Take away:
First year at Citi Field in 2009, things seemed somewhat normal as far as home runs given up by Mets pitchers at home compared to on the road. Mets were around the middle of the pack on both fronts. Things took a drastic turn for the best for Mets pitchers in 2010 and 2011. 47 HR given up by Mets pitchers in 2010 were the lowest in the Major Leagues. On the flip side, the 88 HR given up on road was 3rd most in the National League, 7th most in Major League Baseball. Diamond Backs gave up the most with 107. Same thing in 2011, only 4 teams in the NL gave up less HR than Mets pitchers at home, versus 89 HR given up on road, which qualifies as the most in the NL. No doubt about it, the Citi Field cavernous size absolutely helped our pitchers tremendously.

Individual Mets pitchers home runs given up (current Mets players) - (home v away)
Dillon Gee
2011 - 18 (home - 9/road - 9)

Johan Santana
2009 - 20 (home - 12/road - 8)
2010 - 16 (home - 3/road - 13)

Jon Niese
2010 - 20 (home - 9/road - 11)
2011 - 14 (home - 6/road - 8)

Mike Pelfrey
2009 - 18 (home - 6/road - 12)
2010 - 12 (home - 4/road - 8)
2011 - 21 (home - 7/road - 14)

R.A. Dickey
2010 - 13 (home - 3/road - 10)
2011 - 18 (home - 8/road - 10)

Take away:
As far as individual Mets pitchers based on the above, while there are instances where more HR's were given up at home vs on the road such as Santana in 2009, for the most part, we can again clearly see that the big field has aided our pitchers big time. The biggest benefactor, Mike Pelfrey.

This is BAD news people. As bad as Mike Pelfrey has been, and he's been getting worse over the years, expect an uptick in home runs given up at home and even worse performances by this man. I hope I'm wrong, but this does not bode well for Mets fans. In fact, in 2009 and 2011 Mike Pelfrey has given up twice as many home runs on the road than at home.

Mets hitters- home runs (home v away)
2011 - 108 (home - 50/ road - 58)
2010 - 128 (home - 63/ road - 65)
2009 - 95 (home - 49/ road - 46)

Take away:
From looking the number of home runs by Mets batters as a whole in the first 3 years at Citi Field, one can argue that the deep fences did not hurt Mets hitters when you compare it to the home runs hit on the road. Do I think more home runs would be hit at Citi Field if the fences were in? Yes. But the numbers don't lie. Based on this, we can easily make the point that the deep fences 100% helped Mets pitchers more than it hurt Mets hitters.

In 2009, Mets were last in NL in home runs hit at home and on the road. In 2010 and 2011, they were at the bottom of the pack in both categories. These numbers suggest the Mets need to find better sluggers rather than pull the fences in.

Individual Mets power hitters home runs (current Mets players) - (home v away)
David Wright
2011 - 14 (home - 5/road - 9)
2010 - 29 (home - 12/road - 17)
2009 - 10 (home - 5/road - 5)

Ike Davis
2011 - 7 (home - 5/road - 2)
2010 - 19 (home - 8/road - 11)

Jason Bay
2011 - 12 (home - 6/road - 6)
2010 - 6 (home - 3/road -3)

Lucas Duda
2011 - 10 (home - 2/road - 8)
2010 - 4 (home - 3/ road - 1)

From an individual perspective, I only listed the numbers from hitters still on the team. You can look back to players that are not on the team anymore and still make a similar case. There are instances here where more home runs were hit on the road, for example David Wright in 2010 & 2011 and Lucas Duda in 2011. But this did not hold true for Jason Bay and Ike Davis.

What does this all mean? To me, its clear that Mets pitchers will feel the pain of moving in the fences moreso than Mets hitters will feel the glory of hitting more home runs. In terms of hitters, the numbers don't scream out that Mets hitters would drastically hit more home runs with the fences in. Maybe it's just a fact that we need better power hitters. Guys like Ike Davis are not affected by the deep fence. An Ike moonshot is an Ike moonshot in Citi Field or the Grand Canyon, doesn't matter. For guys like David Wright, maybe there is something there, or maybe it's just mental. But adjusting that mentality means ruining that of pitchers who used that deep fence as a crutch. What will happen to mental Mike Pelfrey when balls that normally would be deep outs start shooting over the wall? I'm not looking forward to finding this out.

So before we start getting all giddy about the fences moving in, we need to think about and realize if this was intended to be more of a distraction from the front office from the real team issues at hand. Considering that this is something that was supposed to help the home team, it may actually hurt the home team more. Hitting home runs were never a problem for the other team, now it will be easier for them as well.

Mets Fantasy Projections: Part 2 - The Outfield

2012-03-21T11:42:00.002-04:00

Mets Fantasy Projections: Part 2 - The Outfield

Jose's on a vacation far away - Bay and Duda talked it over. Angel never seemed like he wanted to play - so we traded for a player just a little bit older. Wilpon's dont wanna lose your love tonight...Sorry for that, seemed clever as a wrote it.

To be Frank (not Francisco, but rather "sincere"), there's not a whole lot of fantasy value in the Mets outfield this year. There's Lucas, who's picked up right where he left off last season, this spring training. And there's the never-ending Jason Bay saga. Around this time of year we like to remind ourselves that a long long time ago in a galaxy far far away, Bay was a Jedi not a wookie...Nonetheless... here, for your viewing and reading pleasure, is the "Mets Are Better Than Sex" fantasy outfield projections.

After reading this, some might be saying "how likely is it that these guys make up our starting line up by the midway point?" We agree, that's why we're doing a whole additional post (after pitchers) about the rookies and young guys who have the potential to make an impact as the season wears on.

RF: Lucas Duda

Last Year: Duda came out of nowhere to show considerable potential for both the power and production games. Duda's 2011 season was truly the story of lowered, then highered expectations. At first, a projection of 20 home runs and 100 Rbi's, as extrapolated over a full season's worth of at bats would have seemed a jadedly optimistic means of compensating for the ache of the pending Beltran send-off. However, once Lucas found his stride (and find it he sure did), the thought of him flirting with those numbers this year could only result from A Mets fan's uncanny ability to expect less.

This Year: Perhaps logically, or perhaps simply as a result of my desire to find SOMEWHERE in the line-up to place my hopes of a big boost, I'm expecting big things from Lucas. While the average is nice, I'm more interested in seeing how often he can get on base (would like to see him draw more walks). I think if he can show a greater restraint in the box (which wasn't a weak point last year), he'll see more of the pitches he's been belting left and right at PSL. 28/110/.290 would be nice. Hitting ahead of Ike in the Line-up and boosting his run total would be excellent. Can we get a "5 stolen bases" (congregation shouts "5 stolen bases")Amen!

Where to Draft: If my projections aren't entirely crazy, then not only are we looking at a great piece to the new Mets puzzle, but someone who come June will be generating considerable all-star buzz. OF is obviously a congested position with tons of options and always more than a few "surprise, success stories". Also, the buzz on Lucas is still mostly local and he therefore should be available a little past where the above projected numbers would plant him. But the buzz is growing and his grand slam and several additional homers in Spring Training haven't gone unnoticed. Power in fantasy is valuable given its direct effect on RBI's and runs. So taking Lucas in the 14th-15th rounds after you've been SURE to round out your bullpen could warrant your nomination for fantasy manager of the year.

Comparables: Lofty goals makes for lofty company. Hit those numbers, Lucas, and you'll gain mention in the same sentences that start with names such as Alex Gordon, Hunter Pence, Carlos Beltran and, yes, Josh Hamilton. Keep the improvement curve running and find yourself not far from Bautista and Justin Upton. Sweet!

X-Factor: There really isn't any. We've got no reason to believe he'll be hurt and he should receive some protection in the order and will likely have many opportunities at the plate with men on base. The only reasonable X-Factor is "how good is he," and if that's what we're pondering, then reaching a bit for Duda might be wise.

CF: Andres Torres

Last Year: The difference a year can make is remarkable. From 2010 to 2011, Andres' numbers shrunk precipitously across every offensive category: 12 fewer HR's, 44 fewer RBI's, 150 fewer at bats, 7 fewer stolen bases. Sadly, even in 2010 Andres would have been unlikely to ever see the light of starting fantasy line-up day.

This Year: Despite assurances that he's again healthy and ready to get the season started... He's not. A calf injury on the 20th has Andres out indefinitely, which won't only keep him off the stat sheets for some time but might simultaneously open the door for a younger Met to replace him full-time. Prior to 2009, when Andres hit levels in between last year and 2010, he hadn't seen Major League action since 2005. Therefore, projecting him this year, in light of the variables, is next to impossible.

Where to Draft: Simple - Don't. The Mets don't have the same national presence as the Yankees. That means that if he's coming on, you'll likely be among the first to know it. At that point, if he's worthy of a waiver move, you'll have plenty of time to pull the trigger.

Comparables: Wish we could say Angel Pagan but Angel hits for more average, more home runs and steals more bases. Fantasy doesn't measure or count intangibles like locker room presence, defense, and championships won.

X-Factor: Is he healthy? Does either Kirk Niewenhuis or Matt Den Dekker get their K/AB ration under control? Does new found financial flexibility prompt the Mets to make a run for BJ Upton or Denard Span???

LF: Jason Bay

Last Year: Short and sweet - minus a late season burst, Jason wasn't very good, which is unsurprising given that since his initial arrival, Jason hasn't been very good.

This Year: Folks, he's not a bad player. You can't call 6 straight years of nearly 30 homers and almost 100 RBI's a fluke. But careers decline and all signs point to Jason being in the midst of his downfall. Will the fences moved in help? They should. Will lowered expectations liberate him? They might. Will the onus of being the senior-most starter on the squad register with Bay? Ehhh.... If Jason can swing .260/20/85 I'll be thrilled.

Where to Draft: Based on those projections, PASS. No reason to take away a spot from a rising star or someone hiding under the guise of a different name (Giancarlo Stanton) only to keep your fingers crossed for months on end. Let Jason slide and again, the "Silent Mets" factor will give you first dibs should he finally see the light.

Comparables: Tori Hunter, Raul Ibanez (projected as a full-timer), Johnny Damon, Mitch Moreland, oh my!!

X-Factor: Can we say its his brain? Seriously, I can't fathom another reason for Jason's failure to punch. He's not an average guy. He's not an infield single-stretcher. He's pop or nothing and most recently completely pop-less. He's not old and as far as we know, isn't suffering from Arm-Gout... so its his brain. If he can fix the brain he should be ok, but that is of course TBD.

Stay tuned next week as we detail the potential of the Mets starting and relief pitching Corps.

What do you think, Fans?