The Football Trader

Money Management

2011-03-28T19:24:00.007+01:00

I have spent the last few days scouring blogs and betting forums to try and pick up some tips on how to manage my betting bank.

Talk about opening your eyes. My previous attempts at trading have been laughably naive.

I regularly risked over 50% of my betting bank on any given event and fell into every trap available for the novice trader.

This strategy (or lack of it)led to some decent wins, but also regular visits to my current account as my betting bank ran dry.

Everyone has their own threshold to risk, and in the past mine has been gung-ho to say the least.Things have to change this time around.

They say the quickest route to success is to model someone who has been successful in your field, so my own plan is unashamedly based on the advice given on the excellent Betfair Trader website (see links)

My starting bank of £300 may be modest for a lot of heavy hitters but is an amount I can afford to risk without impacting my life in any major way.

The plan is to limit myself to a maximum liabilty of 10% of my starting bank per trading event.

If any profits accrue, over and above the £300, I will take 50% of the profit out of my account and let the remaining 50% swell my betting bank.

At this stage I don't plan to top up my betting bank if I hit a losing streak.

Clearly this staking plan is not going to give me overnight success, but hopefully a steady stream of small profits will see myself sunning myself in a more exotic location than Bournemouth for my 2012 summer holidays

Here we go (again!)

2011-03-22T18:00:00.002+00:00

Is it really possible to consistently make money trading on Betfair?

I know from past experience that I can make profits in the short term, but a lack of strategy and discipline have always eventually caught up with me.

Well after a long time out of the game, i've decided to re-open the trading room.

Business will commence at the start of April when I can fund my account with a reasonable starting bank.

The plan is to record all of my trades on this blog and to keep me honest I will publish monthly profit and loss statements direct from my Betfair account.

If possible I will publish my position in advance of matches, although with a large in play focus this will not always be possible.

So what are my targets?

The dream is to fund a decent holiday for myself and my daughter next summer purely from trading profits. In my head this equates to c.£100 profit per month.

I can't work out if that is a conservative target or wildly optimistic and I suppose only time will tell.

Hopefuly any readers will get a few decent tips along the way and some enjoyment from the roller coaster that is about to begin again.

Patience the key for underperforming Liverpool

2010-10-24T12:24:00.001+01:00

I almost choked on my coffee this morning when I read the back page of the Racing Post. Frank Rijkaard 2/5 to succeed Hodgson screamed the headline.

That Liverpool would even consider replacing Hodgson so early in his tenure,is an indictment of how far a once great institution has fallen. In the 70s and 80s, the success at Liverpool was built on stability, continuity and patience both on and off the field. The model worked, making Liverpool a trophy gathering machine and one of the most legendary clubs in world football.

But those days have long since passed, a whole generation of scousers have grown up watching their nemesis Man Utd dominate the domestic scene along with monied johnny come latelys Chelsea.

A City famous for self pity and an over inflated opinion of their own sense of humour could be about to execute another depressingly poor joke if they don't take a reality check and get behind Roy Hodgson. Sacking the erudite Hodgson and replacing him with Rijkaard, a man whose managerial record is a flaky as a bad case of athletes foot, would be a disastrous decision

Liverpool fans are constantly prasied for their passion and knowledge of the game, so it is a major surprise how out of touch they are with both the appreciation of their current standing and also the tactics that they expect Roy Hodgson to apply.

The style of play that Hodgson will drill into his Liverpool team will focus on defensive stability and above all team shape. The methods are surprisingly simple, but it needs a team committed to this ethos and willing to put the collective before the individual.

For me, the first shoots of recovery were apparent at Napoli in mid week. A team stripped of the egos of Gerrard and Torres secured a creditable 0-0 draw away at Napoli on Thursday and for the first time this season it seemed that the players executed the Hodgson gameplan perfectly.

The likes of Jay Spearing and Jonjo Shelvey may well find themselves with more playing time than expected this season, as anyone not following Hodgson's strict gameplan will not be selected regularly. Hodgson doesn't do mavericks, just ask Jimmy Bullard.

For some unknown reason an away draw in Italy was not deemed acceptable by the media or large parts of the fanbase, but had Ryan Babel snaffled a great chance late on, Hodgson would have secured another great European result on his favourite stage.

From a neutral point of view the facts are simple. Liverpool have an average squad, which was expensively assembled by the wasteful and inexplicably popular Rafa Benitez. They do not have the resources to compete at the top end of the transfer market.

What Liverpool do need is some good old fashioned patience. Roy Hodgson worked his magic at Fulham because the squad and supporters bought into his footballing philosophy honed around Europe for over 30 years.

The accusations that he has never done it at a big club are fairly meaningless to me, the key question is whether the big egos and big earners are willing to knuckle down and get back to basics with Hodgson. If they do then Liverpools mediocre start to the season will soon be forgotten.

Liverpool to beat Blackburn @4/6

Fulham great value to beat Bolton

2009-11-27T23:23:00.002+00:00

If Fulham could hand pick a Premier League home fixture to claim 3 points in, then Bolton Wanderers would be the opponents.

The Trotters have made the trip to Craven Cottage 8 times since both teams secured promotion to the top flight back in 2001, and Fulham have won 7 times with a solitary 1-1 draw.

The bookies quite rightly make Fulham favourites, and with many coupons being printed before the midweek 3-0 win against Blackburn, a price of Evs at William Hill looks far too big.

With history in Fulham's favour and Bolton's poor recent run of form surely this is a home banker?

Any long standing Fulham fans will immediately start to worry when terms like 'Home Banker' are being bandied about.

Hull last season and Derby before that were both Home Bankers that went wrong and despite the massive strides made under Roy Hodgson, Fulham can still throw in the odd quirky result.

The Whites have had their fair share of injuries this season, but unlike the Merseyside pair of Liverpool and Everton they haven't whinged and moaned but just got on with it.

That attitude has paid off as squad players like Chris Baird have come to the fore and can now be reinforced with the likes of Murphy and Johnson who are likely to see action on Saturday.

As one striker comes back in, another - Bobby Zamora - is a major doubt with a groin problem. Zamora, who scored a cracker on his home debut in the corresponding fixture last season is unlikely to be risked with CSKA Sofia and Sunderland around the corner.

So in form Clint Dempsey is likely to deputise up front after his brace against Blackburn.

Bolton were thrashed 5-1 by Villa in their last away game, but have actually picked up more points on their travels than at the Reebok.

They have already picked up maximum points at Portsmouth and Birmingham and under pressure boss Gary Megson will have them well fired up for Saturday.

Megson has changed Bolton's approach this season, slowly dismantling the hoofball culture he inherited from Sam Allardyce for something that actually requires a midfield. Whilst Fulham handled the aerial bombardment from Blackburn well on Wednesday, they will be far more comfortable against Bolton and a more attractive game is likely on Saturday.

Recomendation

Given current form and recent history, I make Fulham about a 4/7 shot to beat Bolton, so if there is any Even money or 5/6 still available on Saturday morning, then get involved.

Spanish Cup

2009-11-10T18:21:00.002+00:00

An intriguing match up at the Bernabeu tonight as the Galitico's of Real Madrid try to overturn a 4-0 first leg deficit against lowly Alcorcon.

Some interesting betting opportunities tonight, that make me wish I had a massive bankroll.

For novelty value I have had a couple of quid on correct score markets. 9-0 (175/1) and 10-0 (500/1) with Paddy Power. These prices have long since gone.

More seriously though, you have to fancy Real to get through this tie and a trade on over 4.5 goals at 1.88 looks like good value.

Hopefully I can find a live stream to keep an eye on my investment

Liverpool fail again

2009-11-09T22:15:00.002+00:00

Oh dear, the crisis at Liverpool deepened tonight after they cheated their way to a point against lowly Birmingham at Anfield.

David Ngog conned the ref into giving a penalty to gift Liverpool an equaliser in the second half, but once again the transfer policy and team selection of Rafa Benitez is under the spotlight.

My small trading loss on the game is overshadowed by the mess that is Liverpool FC.

From the boardroom to the Managers office there is something seriously amiss at Anfield and unless something is sorted in the next 2-3 weeks Liverpool could be facing meltdown.

4th place is now the target for Benitez, and the incompetence of others may leave the door open for the Reds to scrape into the Champions League qualifiers next season.

If they fail to make it, expect a mass exodus of top talent - Torres, Reina and Mascherano could well be playing in Spain next year.

Liverpool back in it

2009-11-09T21:36:00.001+00:00

Dodgy penalty by the sounds of it and not even at the Kop end!

Price has now collapsed to 2.08, hope you were following the Football Trader - stay invested

tick tock get on Liverpool

2009-11-09T21:20:00.000+00:00

Price is growing all the time 3.35 now available...

Surely they can't lose this?

Time to get back in the chair

2009-11-09T20:57:00.002+00:00

So, I have made my first tip for a number of months below and have recently got the taste for updating my blog again.

The trading hasn't stopped, but without the discipline of maintaining my blog I have quickly slipped back into bad habits and have been all over the place in terms of selections and staking plans.

A decent Saturday when I managed to turn £25 into £300 got my juices flowing as the cut and thrust of Football trading came to the fore.

I rode the waves of Norwich's 7 goal romp against Paulton Rovers, always seemingly one step ahead of the layers as a number of late goals increased profits.

Ignoring all of my own advice I then lumped the whole of my paltry bankroll (£160) on Man City to beat Burnley at 1.35, and at 2-0 down stormed out of my flat swearing profusely..

My mood improved after a quick trip to the shops to find that Man City were 3-2 up. A harsh lesson was learned a few days previously when a big win on Liverpool(v Lyon) was snatched away from me when I neglected to lay off my bet in the closing minutes and against my better instincts I layed off my City bet at 1.13.

Burnley's excellent equaliser meant I got my stake back and out of jail.

With feelings of luck still flowing through my veins I nipped up to the pub to watch Arsenal at Wolves.

Backing goals at all levels in running was a good move as no goals in the first 25 minutes saw the prices rack up quickly and also a small bet on Fabregas to get the first goal all proved profitable and reminded me that sometimes being a lucky punter is better than being a good one!

With typical greed I was more disappointed with the chances that Arsenal squandered as a 6th goal in the game would have been worth £250.

Anyway back to tonight, and it is worth drip feeding bets on Liverpool as their price will move Northwards very quickly - @2.74 as it stands

Liverpool faltering again

2009-11-09T20:54:00.001+00:00

Rafa Benitez has been put under increasing pressure by his namesake Christian Benitez as Birmingham have pegged back a mis-firing Liverpool at half time in the Monday night clash at Anfield.

Just before the break Cameron Jerome has compounded the misery at Anfield and given Birmingham a 2-1 lead.

You would expect an early goal by David Ngog to settle any nerves that might have been circulating around Anfield - but no.

A half fit Steven Gerrard has now been pressed into service to rescue the Reds.

I would still expect Liverpool to exert their dominance in the second half and they are available to back at 2.66 at Betfair - time to get stuck in!

Premier League Wrap

2009-02-24T00:13:00.002+00:00

Another revealing week in the PL as this topsy turvey season begins to take shape.

Starting at the top, I turned down a massive hospitality gig at Old Trafford on Saturday as the champions elect once again found a forgiving ref to bail them out.

The joys of being single dad are severely tested when a 5.30am finish is being missed - do I really want a jolly including free football, booze, lap dancers and a casino?

Never mind, most of the controversy washed over me as i have no access to Setanta and as a Fulham fan a defeat for any team in the bottom half is always welcome.

Liverpool once again failed to win at home, and any followers of this blog hopefully layed Benitez's men when advised many months ago. Despite the multi million pound budget, the Reds are miles away from sustaining a proper domestic challenge

The same could be said of Arsenal, who failed to capitalise on Villa's defeat at the hands of a rejuvenated Chelsea with another 0-0 draw at home to Sunderland.

The Gunners failed at a price of 1.44, but lump your mortgage on Wenger's side to beat Fulham on Saturday @ 1.46. A 46% return for 90 minutes work is just too much for a team that has never beaten Arsenal away in their history.

Talking of Fulham, which I do on a regular basis, how good is Roy Hodgson? we rolled over at Old Trafford last wednesday, but then produced our best performance of the season against WBA.

The massively underrated Bobby Zamora at last found the net as the Whites propelled themselves to the edge of a European place.

Swansea in the cup tomorrow night, £20 pay on the door is too tempting to turn down, and with Hull and Blackburn scheduled to visit the Cottage in the next 2 weeks this could be a prolific period for BZ.

Talking of Hull, another home defeat tonight against Spurs, your record signing and best payed (one legged) player out for the season - the Tigers are in deep shit.

Trading wise, I don't want to after event so will not go into detail about winning bets. I have a profit of c. £50 on the month to date but I spent £30 on beer,food and cigs tonight.

Small regular profits are great, but I would prefer more to support my lifestyle!

Eduardo back for Arsenal

2009-02-16T20:13:00.002+00:00

The Brazilian/Croat Eduardo has marked his return from a serious injury with the opening goal for Arsenal against Cardiff.

The Gunners have a dream draw through to the semi-finals, with Burnley and then Hull or Sheffield Utd set to visit the Emirates.

I couldn't get involved in the game tonight given Arsenal's prohibitive price, although an 11 match unbeaten run suggests that they are building up a head of steam for the climax of the season. With Arshavin, Walcott, Fabregas and Rosicky still to come back into the mix, Arsenal shouldn't be written off in the hunt for trophies in May.

Despite the disappointment of missing out on a small profit tonight, my new found discipline is starting to pay dividends.

Just one trade recommended on the weekend, a lay of Swansea paid dividends despite the fawning media's reaction to the Welsh sides performance.

Rarely have I seen such an overaction to a home side failing to win despite trading as clear favourites and Fulham should have more than enough to prevail in the replay.

I am having a speculative interest in Arsenal to win the FA Cup @ 5.10, on current form I would suggest you get on!

Swansea v Fulham - HT Update

2009-02-14T13:34:00.002+00:00

Fulham lead at half time thanks to a fortuitous own goal and the tip of the day (lay Swansea) is a good un.

The 1-0 scoreline does not reflect the 1st half, as Swansea should have been two up, Mark Gower hitting a post and forcing a great save from Mark Schwarzer from point blank range.

However, despite a lot of pretty football, it is goals that count and as suggested earlier the traders have misread Fulham once again on their travels, which is great for those following my recent tips.

I have taken the profits at HT, so i can sit back and cheer on Fulham without worrying about trading.

Swansea v Fulham

2009-02-14T11:07:00.002+00:00

I have never quite worked out why Welsh clubs are allowed into the FA Cup, and to make things worse, in recent years they have done pretty well. In form Swansea fly the flag for Wales in todays early kick off and they fancy their chances of knocking out Fulham.

They are not alone, the media, pundits and bookies/traders all seem to have been caught up in the Swans love-in.

I hesitate to say that a Swansea win would be a cup upset seeing as they are favourites across the board, currently trading at 2.58.(Fulham are 3.10).

Is this just another example of superficial analysis of the 2 teams? Swansea are flying and Fulham are poor away from home, so the home team should be favourite.

I made a small profit last weekend after revealing in this blog Fulham's remarkable 1st half performances this season.

They have only been behind at HT in one game all season - in fact if games only lasted 45minutes, Fulham would be in a Champions League spot (3rd best record). There is little to suggest that Roy Hodgson will change the tactics for the trip to Wales so a tight game is likely.

On the surface, Fulham's form away from the Cottage looks poor - even the brilliant Jeff Stelling seems to have joined the bandwagon "will Fulham ever score away from home" he squealed last weekend as Fulham outplayed Wigan but failed to convert their chances.

True, Fulham don't score many in the PL but they have managed 6 in 2 away FA cup ties so far this year and in Andy Johnson have a striker more than capable of making hay against lower division teams. The Whites defence has been watertight for most of the season and should have enough to nullify the threat of Jason Scotland.

I am tempted to steam into Fulham at 3.10 as quite simply the price is wrong, but it may take a replay for Fulham to get into the Quarter finals.

Instead I would recommend a lay of Swansea at 2.62 who although a talented side have been generally overrated.

Good luck if you get involved

Chelsea losses mount

2009-02-14T10:09:00.004+00:00

Peter Kenyon, the Chelsea chief executive could be touting his services to the treasury or British banking industry with his grasp of financial reality.

Not that long ago Kenyon was claiming that Chelsea would be self sufficient in terms of funding by July 2009.

A quick scan of the club's accounts show more significant losses in the period covered - £65.7m. As chief executive, surely Kenyon should have a better handle on the excesses at Stamford Bridge.

An ageing and bloated squad are the major expense with nearly £150m spent on wages, in addition over £23m has been spent on compensation for Mourinho and Grant.(an additional £7m will be needed to terminate Scholari's reign)

Abramovich is now in for almost £700m, and despite constant reassurances of the oligarchs commitment from the Chelsea PR machine - there seems little doubt that he has grown bored of throwing his money around in the transfer market.

The lack of activity in the transfer market means that whichever lucky manager takes control of the gravy train will need to sell before they can buy to re-structure an unbalanced squad.

Therein lies the problem, not many clubs will match the ridiculous contracts that have been handed out to average players, and resale values of many expensive signings have plummeted. The likes of Ballack, Deco and Lampard will be quite happy to see out their contracts at the Bridge, so generating significant funds will be difficult.

Hiddink has a tough short term challenge, and Juventus look overpriced to end Chelsea's European dreams this season (2.38 to qualify).

Another trophyless season looks on the cards - it couldn't happen to a nicer club.

Rise of the stalemate

2009-02-12T21:27:00.002+00:00

0-0 draws are the bain of many exchange traders and spread bettors lives across the world.

Betting on something not to happen is much less fun than cheering on goals as they fly in during exciting attacking matches, but the dreaded goalless draw is on the rise in the English Premier League.

27 top flight matches have finshed goalless this season, already more than the whole of last season.

As the season moves into a key phase, caution amongst the mass of teams involved in the relegation scrap could lead to even more 0-0 draws.

It apears that the bookies have yet to react to the changing distibution of results and correct score odds have remained stable.

The last 2 weekend's of PL football have both yielded 3 goalless draws, so there may be a chance for those who like to dabble in multiple bets to maximise profits.

Keep your eyes open for opportunities in the weeks ahead

Managerial Merry Go-Round

2009-02-09T21:28:00.002+00:00

Tony Adams and Big Phil Scholari have both been relieved of their duties today, leading to some fun and games on the next manager markets on Betfair.

Pompey have been unlucky to lose to both Fulham and Livepool in recent weeks, but with defending almost as naive as Adams' press conferences the writing was on the wall for the ex England international.

Portsmouth are in serious danger of going down as they look to find their 3rd manager of the season.

Avram Grant is currently trading as favourite, but a small investment in Alan Curbishley at 7.00 may be the better bet.

At Stamford Bridge, things just get better. Scholari was hailed as the greatest thing since sliced bread after a decent start to the season, but his one dimensional tactics have been rumbled and Chelsea could be in danger of dropping out of the top 4.

Any side that can stop the threat of the Chelsea full backs has half a chance of getting a result.

Ray Wilkins surely won't be allowed more than one game in charge, as some of the highest profile european managers are being linked with the job. Hiddink is currently favourite, but I would be surprised if he left the Russian national job to salvage Chelsea's season.

Even before news of Scholari's exit, I was advised by a very good judge that if i was going to have one more bet in my lifetime I should be backing Juventus to qualify against Chelsea in the champions league. Juve currently trading @ 2.34.

It would be sweet for the Tinkerman Ranieri to heap further misery on Abramovich and Chelsea

Premier League Preview

2009-02-06T21:38:00.002+00:00

Can Fulham end their away day jinx at Wigan?

www.sportinglife.com tip up Wigan at evens to continue an excellent home run that has yielded 5 wins in the last 7 games at the JJB.

On the surface the tip looks solid enough, and I wouldn't be greatly surprised if Wigan secure the 3 points and with it their Premier League status for next season.

However a quick look at the statistics for this season could lead you to a different betting opportunity.

Fulham have only been behind at half time in one game out of 23 and despite their wretched away record have yet to be behind at the break on their travels.

Past form suggests that Fulham are more than capable of getting to HT with the score level (at worst)

I am not a fan of HT/FT betting, but given the consistency of Fulham's away record it could pay to get involved in this market.

draw/Wigan @5.6
draw/draw @5.2
draw/Fulham @11.00

Despite Wigan's transfer dealings they have lost 2 of their best players in Palacios and Heskey, so a small bet on Fulham to break their away duck at 4.40 is also advised.

ITV

2009-02-05T00:50:00.002+00:00

Nobody watches football on ITV out of choice, the puke inducing pre parared lines of Clive Tyldesley are enough to intice vomit around the UK.

But tonight, a new low in football coverage.

After sitting through 117 minutes and at least 6 Peroni's during the Merseyside Derby, I decided to sneak in a quick smoke before the inevitable penalty shoot out.

Just as I began to leave the bar Itv decide to cut to adverts with at least 5 minutes of the game to go.

After 3 adverts the pictures come back to Everton celebrating a stunning winning goal from Dan Gosling.

No apology from Itv yet, but hopefully the football authroities have seen enough inept coverage to take the contract from the muppets at itv

Premier League Update

2009-01-28T22:43:00.002+00:00

Having spent most of the week at Conferences and Exhibitions, there has been little time for serious trading

I managed to watch an internet stream of Fulham losing on their travels once again at Sunderland, and despite the doom and gloom on the main Fulham messageboards, it was not the worst away performance by a long way.

Sunderland were poor, but with Jones and Cisse up front they have a great chance of staying up.

Fulham should have enough home games to just about survive - I hope you are on the 11.50 already advised on the Cottagers to be relegated, as we are well in profit already on that market.

Hull, Stoke, WBA and Middlesboro continued their losing streaks and all look vulnerable.

At the top of the table Liverpool failed once again, and as predicted are falling fast in the chase for the title.

Benitez is just not up to the task of securing domestic honours

January Trading Update

2009-01-25T20:38:00.003+00:00

Trading has been fairly quiet for me in January, as christmas expenses and a couple of late night losing streaks in the casino have limited my bankroll.

But having failed with all of my other new years resolutions already, I have decided that this is the year that I start taking my football trading seriously.

My targets are fairly modest to start with, I am looking for a profit of c. £100 a month - just enough to finance a decent summer holiday for me and my 5 year old daughter.

In January, I have managed to accumulate a profit of £112.20, which would have been nearer £200 had I not dabbled in other sports.

Horses, Dogs, American Football and Golf have all been losers for me. So come February payday there will be no more speculative trades on things I know little about.

I have set myself 5 golden rules in pursuit of profits

My first golden rule is to trade exclusively on Football and ensure that nearly all of my bets are on the exchanges (no more phone betting with bookies after a few pints n the pub!)

Rule number 2 is to be more selective. Getting involved in every live match is great fun, but there is little future in this approach. The term 'no bet' has to enter my thoughts for the first time!

Rule 3 is the pursuit of small regular profits. As I am aiming for £100 per month, I don't need to win the whole amount on day1. Loads of times I have been sitting on an all green position and then decided to get involved in other markets looking to boost profits only to fail spectacularly.

Rule 4 is to improve my staking strategy and bankroll management. There is some great advice in this area from other successful traders like the brilliant Betfair Trader (http://www.thebetfairtrader@blogspot.com/) . In the past I have been totally erratic in this area, risking my whole bankroll on certain events, or withdrawing winnings to finance other expenses.

I will cover rule 4 in more detail in the coming weeks, once I have found a strategy the suits my trading style. Suffice it to say I will be keeping invested and hoping to see my bankroll grow.

My final rule is to maintain a record of all trades on this blog. The aim is to post as much as possible before the event, there is nothing like a bit of humiliation when it all goes wrong to focus your mind on when and what to trade on.

Hopefully some of the advice is worth following, but my profit & loss figures will probably be the best indicator of that.

In addition to my trading updates, I will continue to post my musings on anything football related.

Comments and feedback are most welcome and if you would like a link to your website added, just let me know.

Bye Bye Bullard

2009-01-23T21:46:00.002+00:00

"He's better than Steve Gerrard, He's thinner than Frank Lampard, Jim Bullard,Bullard"

Well Jimmy Bullard has chased the dollar and secured a big money move to of all places Hull!

Jimmy was a legend at Fulham, but the legend was built more by his cheeky chappy personality and the fact that he had 18 months out of a struggling side after scoring twice in his first 4 games for the club.

Fulham stood by him, financed his rehabilitation from a career threatening injury, and were repayed with less tham 40 appearances in a 3 year period.

His performances this season have been erratic to say the least, with losing possession probably the most common feature of his play.

To be fair, he has chipped in with some important goals, but his headless chicken routine has not gone down well with the tactically rigid Roy Hodgson.

I can't have a go at Jimmy, a 4 year contract at a reported £45k a week will set him up for life and help him to pay off the alleged 5 agents who have been hawking him around most of the 2nd rate teams in the Premier League.

Looking forward to March 4th when Hull visit Craven Cottage, my reaction to Bullard will depend on whether Hodgson can re-invest the money into a threadbare squad that is far from safe,

Man Utd v Spurs

2009-01-22T23:20:00.003+00:00

It may be worth a look around some of the High Street bookies tomorrow to see what price you can get on a Man Utd FA cup win vs Spurs.

Most of the coupons available will have been priced up and printed before the Redknapp declarations on Wednesday night that he would field a veryweak side at Old Trafford on Saturday.

United were trading at 1.36 on Betfair earlier this evening, so there may be an arb opportunity if you can find any unsuspecting bookies who have yet to change their coupon price.

Jimmy Bullard

2009-01-22T23:03:00.002+00:00

I mentioned yesterday that Fulham could get sucked into the relegation dogfight if they sold off Jimmy Bullard and/or Brede Hangeland.

When I go inundated with texts from gloating mates telling me that Bullard was going to Hull, I thought it was a wind up until I saw the breaking news on Sky Sports News.

£5m is not a bad price for a 30 year old with 18 months left on his contract and a dodgy knee, but Hull?

I will refrain from slating Jimmy until the deal is officially done, which is by no means guaranteed. Bullard's wage demands are going to be big, after his head was turned by spending a couple of weeks with the England squad.

Hull have already failed to agree terms with 2 other ex-Fulham stars, Steve Finnan and Luis Boa Morte who both rejected the advances of Phil Brown.

Aside from the financial agreement, the medical is by no means a gimme. A number of well connected Fulham fans have stated that Jimmy has no chance of passing a stringent medical.

If Hull are going to invest in a package likely to be worth in excess of £10m in wages and transfer fees, then they will need to be 100% sure that Bullard has made a full recovery from the serious knee injury inflicted by Scott Parker.

If Jimmy does move North (after leaving Wigan cos he wanted to move back to London)Fulham will miss his enthusiam and spark, but better players have been sold in recent years and Fulham have survived.

A swift move for Fabian Delph of Leeds would quickly ease the pain

Premier League Relegation (2)

2009-01-21T19:09:00.003+00:00

After tipping West Ham to struggle, I am perhaps not best qualified to try and work out what is happening in the Premier League relegation battle.

So who will be in the dreaded dropzone come May?

The Racing Post recently tipped up Newcastle at 9/2 for the drop, and everyone you talk to has a different 3 clubs in the frame.

Current form and the Betfair market would suggest that Middlesboro, Stoke and Hull are all downwardly mobile, but there will be many twists and turns in the coming weeks.

As a Fulham fan I am a born pessimist, and as everyone I talk to confidently procaims that Fulham are safe my worries grow.

Currently available at 11.50 on Betfair, Fulham have won just once in 8 games and still have a phobia of away games.

A magnificent defensive record started to unravel at Upton Park on Sunday as Fulham gifted 3 comedy goals to West Ham.

If that was merely a blip then Fulham will retain their Premier League status comfortably, but if the reported interest in Jimmy Bullard and Brede Hangeland results in a January sale, Fulham could well get dragged into the fight.

A trip to Sunderland and a home game against Portsmouth on 31st Jan are now key battles as trips to Old Trafford and The Emirates in February are likely to draw further away blanks.

I am going to have a small interest in Fulham as an insurance policy, i'm not convinced they will go down, but their price could well contract significantly if results don't improve.

Back Fulham for relegation at 11.50 with a view to trading out for a profit