The Fight Table

UFC 101: Declaration

2009-08-05T15:50:00.020+01:00

Josh 'The Dentist' Neer vs. Kurt 'Batman' Pellegrino
(155lbs/70kg)

Josh Neer
25-7-1

+Excellent clinch game, complete with Greco-Roman, dirty boxing and Muay Thai clinch
+Pretty good chin

-Questionable sprawl
-Not a good ground fighter

Kurt Pellegrino
13-4-0

+BJJ black belt under Hermes Franca
+Never (T)KO'd
+Decent ground and pound
+Wrestling background

-Not very mobile when striking
-Takedowns are not fast or powerful

Analysis:

Pellegrino is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu under Hermes Franca, but not all black belts are created equal, especially considering he got submitted by brown belt Nate Diaz.

Nonetheless, he's still got an obvious grappling advantage over Neer. Neer has a very good clinch game which he used very well against Nate Diaz, and Pellegrino is a similar enough fighter to Nate, so I would expect this to be another close run fight which could go either way.

My Take:

I'd guess that Neer would outwork Grove for a split decision victory. Neer enters at 1.40, and Pellegrino at 2.90, which is odd for such a close fight, and I would feel better going against myself and picking Pellegrino.

Ricardo 'Cachoarro' Almeida vs. Kendall 'Da Spyder' Grove
(185lbs/84kg)

Ricardo Almeida

10-3-0

+Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt
+Prestigious ADCC career
+Very good ground and pound

+Good at jumping guard

-Weak wrestling

-Beginner level striker

-Bad cardio

Kendall Grove
10-5-0

+Stands at 6'6, tall with a mighty reach advantage
+Very competent striker with a good Muay Thai clinch
+Good enough ground game
+Decent sprawl

-Striking defense is suspect
-Somewhat slow on the feet
-Not a tremendously hard hitter

Analysis:

If Almeida takes Grove down, the American will be lucky to survive the round with the third degree BJJ black belt (awarded by Renzo Gracie) on top of him. But like many world class grapplers, wrestling is Almeida's achilles. Grove is 6'6, which would be tall for a heavyweight, and is gigantic for a middleweight.

Almeida is good at jumping guard, but he'll find that difficult given the sheer distance he has to close between himself and his opponent. If he doesn't get a submission in round one, I don't see him having the energy to go and get a submission in the second or third.

Grove isn't bad on the mat himself, having most of his wins by submission, but he'll still try to avoid Almeida like the plague. Expect boos, many of them.

My Take:

Grove by unanimous, Tim Sylvia-esque, decision, surviving scares and continuing to pop away at Almeida. Almeida enters at 1.62, while Grove comes in at 2.30, so of course I believe Grove to be a smarter play.

Amir Sadollah vs. Johnny Hendricks
(185lbs/84kg)

Amir Sadollah

1-0-0

+Extremely slick with submissions
+Excellent Muay Thai, with great speed, combiations, power and a likng for high kicks

-Has not competed in more than a year
-Very green
-Not a good wrestler
-Coming back off injuries

Johnny Hendricks
5-0-0

+2005 and 2006 NCAA Division I wrestling champion and 2007 runner up
+Hard hitter

-Weak cardio
-Not a refined striker
-Unknown if he will be able to go about finishing good opponents or if he will resort to lay and pray

Analysis:

Sadollah may be slick on the ground, but I think that's where Hendricks is going to need to take this to keep it competitive. Sadollah is a vicous Tahi boxer and will leave Hendricks in a heap if this stays up.

Hendricks has some decent finishes to his name, but nothing against good opponents, and I would be very surprised if he finished Sadollah, but that may be his best option; I don't know if he has the cardio or submission defense to lay and pray him for fifteen minutes.

My Take:

Sadollah by submission, Round 2. Both enter at 1.87, so I'll be taking Sadollah.

Anderson 'The Spider' Silva vs. Forrest Griffin
(205lbs/93kg)

Forrest Griffin
16-5-0

+Very large , standing at 6'3, and with the largest frame in the light heavyweight division
+Good at hit and move striking, utilising low kicks and jabs
+Great heart
+Solid chin
+Good on the ground
+Excellent cardio

-Feather-fisted
-Not good off his back
-Not a great wrestler

Notable Wins:
Quinton Jackson (2008)
Mauricio 'Shogun' Rua (2007)

Anderson Silva
24-4-0

+Lethal Muay Thai; precise and powerful, and extremely unpredictable
+Awesome chin
+Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt
+Use of footwork and head movement make him very hard to hit
+Good cardio
+Very good defensive guard

-May not be motivated anymore
-Not a good offensive wrestler

Notable Wins:
Dan Henderson (2008)
Rich Franklin x2 (2007, 2006)
Nate Marquardt (2007)
Hayato Sakurai (2001)

Analysis:

If Forrest wins this it'll be on the ground where he is underrated, because I don't see him bothering Anderson with his stick and move Misaki-style striking, which is very light in all honesty. Anderson is a better striker than anyone Forrest has ever faced, and while Griffin pulls a fair share of upsets, this will be one of his toughest fights.

Griffin may be able to control him on the ground and rack up points without submitting him, but I don't see him being able to do that for long; Griffin is not a wrestler, he just has a heavy size advantage. Anyway, he'll find it hard to close the distance for takedowns given Anderson's speed and evasiveness.

Only thing to look out for is Anderson's seeming despondence which was apparent with Leites. If he displays the same lethargy Griffin will likely outpoint him for a unanimous decision.

My Take:

Anderson by KO, Round 2. I don't believe that he's going to punch Forrest in the leg or anything like that, I think he's going to systematically destroy him like he did to Franklin.

Anderson enters at 1.20, while Griffin enters at 4.00, so not much value on Silva here. Wouldn't back him on his own, but maybe a combined bet with another sure thing...

BJ 'The Prodigy' Penn vs. Kenny 'Ken-Flo' Florian
(155lbs/70kg)

BJ Penn
13-5-1

+Excellent technical boxing with great crosses and jabs
+Powerful hitter
+2000 Mundials champion of Brazilian Jiu Jitsu at black belt and a great guard
+Excellent jaw
+Very tough skin, only cut once
+Awesome takedown defence

-Could improve offensive wrestling
-Focus has always been hit and miss
-Overall Thai Boxing not great
-Does not check low kicks

Notable Wins:
Sean Sherk (2008)
Matt Hughes (2004)
Takanori Gomi (2003)
Caol Uno (2001)

Kenny Florian

11-3-0

+Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt
+Good Muay Thai, with good elbows
+Elusive on the feet
+Excellent ground and pound

-Not good at close range striking

Analysis:

Penn has a distinct advantage on the mat, and has an awesome sprawl, so don't expect to see him on his back in this one. Even if he is, Penn's defensive guard - which has only been passed a couple of times - should be good enough to counter Florian's GnP and to stand back up. I'm guessing this should be a battle between Penn's boxing and Florian's Muay Thai.

At least it shouldn't be as lopsided an affair as the standup battle with Sean Sherk, who's T-Rex arms could barely reach Penn's chin, but the Sherk fight did highlight that Penn's defense is boxing orientated and did seem to have trouble checking them. Perhaps that's Florian's strategy, but he'll likely get tagged by a jab if he doesn't protect himself while he's throwing them.

Florian does not like getting pressured in close fighting, and Penn's quick combos could spell severe danger for him. Florian will have to try a Misaki-style fight if he wants to beat Penn, I believe.

My Take:

Florian really isn't as good a striker as Penn, maybe a little lighter on his feet, and with a few more kicks, but that's it. Can't see him frustrating Penn for very long, even if he tries to stick and move, I see Penn tagging him and finishing him in Round 3.

Penn enters at 1.36, while Florian enters at 3.20, so not much value on the Hawaiian on his own, but could be profitable enough when placing a multiplier with Anderson Silva.

World Victory Road Presents: Sengoku IX

2009-07-18T16:45:00.024+01:00

Kazuyuki 'Ironhead' Fujita vs. Blagoi Ivanov
(93+kg/205+lbs)

Blagoi Ivanov
0-0-0

+World Combat Sambo champion in 2008, giving Fedor Emelianenko his first loss
+Extremely good upper body takedowns
+Versatile striking
+Hits with force
+Changes levels between striking/clinch very well
+Experienced amateur MMA record

-Unknown how well he can takedown his opponents without a gi
-May have trouble adjusting to striking without headgear
-Extremely young, at only 22 years old

Kazuyuki Fujita
15-7-0

+Good wrestler
+Hard to clinch-takedown
+Punches hard

-Not a submission specialist
-Striking combinations very simple

Analysis:

Nice matchup, Fujita is on the way down, but Ivanov can only go up, being the World Combat Sambo champ in 2008. MMA isn't sambo, but the same basics are taught. A lot of the skills he learned in combat sambo - upper body takedowns, striking to set up the clinch, submissions, clinch-fighting - will transfer to MMA.

I see many sources stating that he has a 14-0-1 record in amateur MMA, but I'm not sure if that's verified.

One thing that will trouble him I'm guessing is the lack of a gi with wich to grab his opponents, and Fujita is an very good wrestler, and he will be hard to take down from the clinch - he's so broad he's naturally advantaged against upper body takedowns.

Nonetheless, Fujita has been getting worse and worse it seems, and he recently got KO'd by Travis Wiuff. While his striking may be better than Ivanov's, which is still unrefined as of now, I don't think it will be enough for him to win the fight.

My Take:

I'll take Ivanov by submission; I don't think Fujita has much left to give to MMA, and Ivanov surely has motivation.

Ivanov enters at 1.74, and Fujita enters at 2.05. I'm still going with the Bulgarian.

Kazuo 'Grabaka Hitman' Misaki vs. Kazuhiro Nakamura
(84kg/185lbs)

Kazuo Misaki
21-9-2

+Very elusive hit and move counterstriker

+Versatile kickboxer

+Never been KO'd

+Judo background

-Light hitter

-Too content to win decisions

-Strategy of outpointing the opponent hardly ever varies

Notable Wins:
Dan Henderson(2006)

Kazuhiro Nakamura

13-9-0

+Appeared to be a very strong judo prospect before entering MMA. Has good trips and clinch takedowns.

+Very aggressive ground and pound

+Solid chin

+Good ground control

-Slow, and inaccurate standup

-Striking combinations are almost non-existant

-Very bad defensive movement

-Bad at closing distance to clinch

Analysis:

Nakamura has an uphill battle here. Misaki is a very difficult fighter to engage with, and has beaten many opponents with his stick and move style. Nakamura, like most judokas, suffers from the lack of explosive takedowns, and will find it quite difficult to close the distance and put him on his back - especially since Misaki has a judo background himself.

Even if he does put Misaki on his back, Misaki has been finished three times, and all times by men much more skilled than Nakamura. He has never been KO'd and has only been TKO'd when he broke his arm against Nate Marquardt. Only way Nakamura wins is by decision.

My Take:

Tricky. Misaki is huge favourite at 1.40, but is a pretty safe bet, while Nakamura enters at 2.90. I'm going to go with Misaki and take the risk.

Mizuto Hirota vs. Satoru Kitaoka
(70kg/154lbs)

Satoru Kitaoka
25-8-9

+Light on his feet
+Good takedowns
+Excellent at rolling for leg locks while in guard
+Wicked killer instinct
+Good strategist

-No striking
-Limited ground and pound
-Never (T)KO'd anyone

Notable Wins:
Takanori Gomi (2008)

Mizuto Hirota
11-3-1

+Never been finished
+Powerful hitter
+Good Muay Thai/kickboxing with nice combinations
+Good chin

-Boxing defense may have some room for improvement -Wrestling is nothing much
-Grappling has never been good

Analysis:

Hirota getting in a position to fight for the Sengoku lightweight belt was pretty shocking in itself, but it'll be even harder to make a repeat upset.

Hirota burst onto the scene with a TKO over Ishida, something that hadn't been done to Ishida since Gomi in 2006. If it stayed standing, he'd likely do the same to Kitaoka, but it won't stay standing. Ishida didn't attempt a single takedown in that fight, and if he had, I'd bet on it going differently.

A grappler that's obsessed with taking the fight to the ground at all costs, regardless of whether they're on top or bottom is a difficult thing to deal with for anyone, and Kitaoka has it down to a tee.

All that said, Hirota is an extremely dangerous Muay Thai fighter who makes good use of punches, kicks, and the Muay Thai clinch, and has proven power behind his strikes. All it takes is a lapse and Kitaoka could suffer his first KO.

My Take:

This is likely going to the ground if Hirota doesn't nail him in the opening minutes, and I fully expect the stretchy pants-ed magician to tap Hirota.

Kitaoka by heel hook, round one. I don't think the fact that Hirota hasn't been submitted will save him either.

But Kitaoka is at 1.20, while Hirota is at 4.00, and that is just too bad in terms of value to be bothered with. Hirota is an extremely live underdog.

Marlon Sandro vs. Michihiro Omigawa
(65kg/143lbs)

Marlon Sandro
14-0-0

+Brazilian jiu jitsu black belt
+Fast and violent punches
+Good combinations
+Light enough on his feet for a grappler, and has a surprisingly good striking defense
+Good takedowns
+Good guard passes and transitions

-Top control could be improved
-Uncertain how well his Jiu Jitsu has translated to MMA

Michihiro Omigawa
6-7-1

+Good boxing footwork
+Good clinch takedowns/trips
+Great ground and pound; knees and punches
+Never been subbed

-Never submitted an opponent in MMA
-Not really that threatening standing due to lack of power
-Not a versatile striker

Analysis:

Sandro has been getting better and better from what I've seen. The Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt has got surprising punching power and looks to be picking up striking very well. Added to that, he has good wrestling and won't hesitate to take this to the ground.

Judoka's don't often have the best takedown defense, particularly against lower body takedowns, and that is what Sandro prefers.

Some of Omigawa's best offense is when he's on top, and it may be a better place than standing for him, ironically, as Sandro does not appear to have translated his BJJ to MMA that well, with only three submission wins on his 14-0-0 record. But the undefeated Brazilian is still dangerous from any position.

Standing, I'll give footwork and defense to Omigawa, but power and speed to Sandro. More importantly, I think Sandro KO's him if it stays standing. Only place I see Sandro uncomfortable is on his back.

My Take

Sandro by submission, round two. Omigawa is a decent technical striker but he's not as good a one as DJ Taiki, and he lacks Taiki's awesome sprawl too.

Sandro enters at 1.40, and Omigawa enters at 2.95. Not the best value, but Sandro enters at 4.50 to win the whole tournament, which is good. Omigawa is at 5.00 for the GP.

Hatsu Hioki vs. Masanori Kanehara
(65kg/143lbs)

Hatsu Hioki
19-3-2

+Excellent footwork, floats very light on his feet

+Extremely good transitions

+Good clinch takedowns

+Never been finished

+Good takedown defense

+Extremely good grappler

-May have some holes in striking
-Not an extremely hard hitter

Masanori Kanehara
13-5-5

+Powerful punches and kicks
+Good at toe to toe wars

-More a brawler than anything else
-Defense is not tight

Analysis:

It's pretty much recognised that Hioki is going to have a massive advantage in this bout no matter whether it stays standing or goes to the mat. Hioki has a huge advantage on the ground, and I wouldn't expect Kanehara to last to the end of the round if Hioki gets him on his back.

So Kanehara will obviously try to keep this on the feet, probably without much success. Even if he succeeds I don't see him beating Hioki in that regard.

My Take:

Hioki by submission, Round 1.

Hioki enters at 1.12, while Kanehara enters at 6.25. No real value in Hioki, but Kanehara would just be throwing money away. Hioki is 1.50 to win the tournament, again not very good, while Kanehara is a fitting 18.00. It may be worth putting a tiny play on Kanehara, just incase he pulls out the luckiest of lucky punches.

Bonus Pick: Hatsu Hioki vs. Marlon Sandro

Analysis:

If Omigawa or Kanehara win ignore this. This has all the makings of an epic final, with the grappling of these two men being extremely close. Hikoi would be the more exciting grappler, with a drive to finish the fight, but Sandro is a more methodical grappler, content for decisions, but just as potent. I'd give Hioki a small advantage.

Striking, close again. Sandro would be naturally gifted with more speed and power in his strikes, but Hioki would be the faster more elusive striker. I'll give Sandro a slight edge here.

Hioki has never been finished by anyone, and Sandro has never been beaten.This may come down to who can get top control and outwork their opponent for a decision or late finish. Hioki has a great clinch takedowns, but Sandro is viciously persistent with double and single legs, and again it looks like a coin toss to me.

My Take:

Sandro by extremely controversial split decision, becoming the first Sengoku featherweight champ.

Recap on odds to win GP outright

Marlon Sandro

4.50

Hatsu Hioki

1.50

Masanori Kanehara

18.00

Michihiro Omigawa

5.00

Field (any fighter not listed)

16.00

DREAM.10 - The Welterweight GP Final Round

2009-07-18T12:04:00.006+01:00

Dong Sik Yoon vs. Jesse 'JT Money' Taylor
(84kg/185lbs)

Dong Sik Yoon
4-6-0

+Judoka who won gold in 1994 Asian Games (78kg), 1997 Asian Championships (78kg), 2000 Asian Championships (90kg), and 2001 East Asian Games (2001)
+Good heart
+Good chin

-Judo skills have not transitioned well, struggles with takedowns more than expected
-Never gained any good striking ability

Jesse Taylor
11-3-0

+Good ground and pound
+Good wrestling
+Relentless takedowns

-One dimensional
-Gives up positions

Analysis:

The best 4-6 fighter around, Yoon has been consistently tested against top competition (Sakuraba, Mousasi, Nakahara) and had mixed results. He is always dangerous in top position, and can pull off a 'dongbar' in a flash.

Taylor's biggest fight was against CB Dollaway, which he lost by Peruvian Necktie (not to be confused with a Colombian Necktie). Taylor has a weakness with grappling, so Yoon should have a decisive grappling advantage here when the fight hits the ground, regardless of whether he's on top or on bottom.

My Take:

Yoon by arm-, I mean dongbar, Round 1. Yoon enters at 1.44, and Taylor enters at 2.75, so while being heavy favourite, Yoon should not be in too much danger here. Taylor will hardly KO him and won't submit him, obviously. Doubt he'll grind out a decision either.

Melvin 'Marvelous' Manhoef vs. Paulo 'Ely' Filho
(84kg/185lbs)

Melvin Manhoef
23-5-1

+Nightmarish KO power
+Extremely experienced K-1 kickboxer

-Ground game is non existent
-Wrestling is terrible

Paulo Filho
16-1-0

+Extremely decorated Jiu Jitsu black belt
+Black belt in judo

+Persistent in trying to bring fight to the ground

-May have mental lingering issues
-Weak takedown shots
-Average striking

Notable Wins:
Kazuo Misaki (2006)

Analysis:

Stays standing, Manhoef. Ground, Filho. Simple, but is Filho's wrestling good enough to take this to the mat? That I'm not sure about, if Filho focuses this should really be his, if he starts seeing ghosts again Manhoef will make him one.

Manhoef was never really committed to MMA, and when he got subbed by Mousasi he complained about Mousasi not having balls enough to stand with him. Don't expect him to ever have a good sprawl. Filho is committed, and if he's worked out his mental issues he could be a nightmare matchup for Manhoef - like anyone with a wrestling background and submission skill are.

My Take:

Filho by sub, Round 1, minute 1. I don't believe Black House would let him fight again unless he was fit. Filho is at 1.74, Manhoef at 2.05, but I still prefer the Brazilian.

Katsunori Kikuno vs. Andre 'Dida' Amade
(70kg/154lbs)

Katsunori Kikuno
11-1-0

+Extremely prestigious career in Kyokushin Karate
+Judo background
+Transitions between striking/clinching fluid +Aggressive ground and pound
+Very confident striker

-Striking defense not tight
-Takedowns not hard to stuff
-Not a submission artist

Andre Amade
6-3-1

+Wicked power punches
+Fast puncher that throws punches in bunches that have a good chance of overwhelming the opponent in classic Chute Boxe style
+Decent takedown defense
+Good defensive guard

-Wild style may cause him to run out of energy
-Bad grappler
-Open to counterstriking
-Left and right hooks are his primary combinations

Analysis:

Textbook striking vs. aggressive assault. This is difficult to call. Kikuno has an extensive Kyokushin pedigree; his titles include: 1st place in an All-Kyushu Tournament and 1st place in an All-Kansai Tournament, both of which were openweight tournaments.

Dida looks to have a considerable height and reach advantage, and is more tested against top competition, but hasn't fought in more than a year. Kikuno, however, is on an eight fight winning streak, albeit against sub-par competition.

My Take:

Leaning towards Dida by TKO, Round 1. Kikuno is not a counterstriker like Machida, who is impossible to hit; he comes forward, and I think this will play to Amade's game.

Amade enters at 2.45, and Kikuno enters at 1.57, so there is great value on Amade.

Shinya 'Tobikan Judokan' Aoki vs. Vitor 'Shaolin' Ribeiro
(70kg/154lbs)

Shinya Aoki
20-4-0-1

+Jiu Jitsu and Judo black belt
+Can always get a fight to the ground, through orthodox and unorthodox methods
+Very good rubber guard that is difficult to GnP against

-Poor striking
-Sub par ground and pound

Notable Wins:
Eddie Alvarez (2008)
Caol Uno (2008)
Gesias Calvancante (2008)
Joachim Hansen (2006)

Vitor Ribeiro
20-2-0

+Marvelous grappling quality; came 3rd in ADCC 2003 and made it to the quarter finals in ADCC 2000, both times in the 66-76kg division
+Strong takedowns

-Bad striker
-Weak ground and pound

Notable Wins:
Mitsuhiro Ishida (2004)
Joachim Hansen (2003)
Tatsuya Kawajiri (2002)

Analysis:

This is one of the most difficult matchups for Aoki in the lightweight division, perhaps the hardest with the exception of BJ Penn.

Shaolin probably has better grappling than Aoki, a one-dimensional grappler. In fact, Shaolin has the best grappling credentials in the lightweight division, due to his performances in ADCC 2003 and ADCC 2000.

It's not hopeless for Aoki. His BJJ is good enough to prevent him from being subbed, and to try for submissions himself, but he won't submit Ribeiro.

Their striking would be on a similar level, and their takedown defenses are not good enough to keep this a sloppy striking match. Aoki's best chance of winning this is by taking initiative, taking Shaolin down and using GnP and attempting submissions with hope of earning a decision.

My Take:

Shaolin wins by decision, his grappling just being too much for Aoki to handle; one-dimensionalism not paying off yet again. The odds for this fight are insane; Aoki is 1.50 to Shaolin's 2.60. Betting on Shaolin offers crazy value.

Andre Galvao vs. Jason High
(76kg/168lbs)

André Galvao
3-0-0

+Mundials winner at 79-85kg in 2008 and 73-79kg in 2005
+Transitioned from gi grappling to no-gi grappling smoothly
+Trains at Black House with the best the world has to offer
+Very persistent with takedowns

-Not used any ground and pound
-Never been hit in competition
-Weak takedowns

Jason High
7-1-1

+Natural athleticism
+Slick submissions
+Big hitter

-Striking combinations very basic
-Chin may be questionable

Analysis:

Jason High is athletic, and packs power. He might be one of the tougher challenges Galvao faces in the GP. However, if Galvao swarms him every chance he gets, and does everthing he can to get High to the ground, it should only be a matter of time before a submission.

High is no slouch on the ground himself, his submission of Yuya Shirai fresh in mind, but Galvao is something else entirely. High is going to need to dance away from Galvao, and try to blast him with a power shot.

My Take:

Galvao by sub is the most likely outcome, High can't afford to let this one hit the mat for a minute. I don't think this will last beyond Round 1.

High is at 4.00, and Galvao is at 1.20, so if your betting on this fight alone, might be better to go for High, but Galvao is 4.00 to win the GP, and that isn't bad. High is 6.00 to win the GP.

Hayato 'Mach' Sakurai vs. Marius 'Raging Demon' Zaromskis
(76kg/168lbs)

Hayato Sakurai
35-8-2

+Powerful ground and pound
+ADCC winner in 1999
+Versatile kickboxer
+Extremely experienced

-Past his prime
-Motivation on and off
-Not light on his feet
-Keeps his gloves to low to defend strikes

Notable Wins:
Shinya Aoki (2009)
Joachim Hansen (2005)
Shinya Aoki (2005)
Frank Trigg (2000)

Marius Zaromskis
9-2-0

+Powerful kickboxer
+Makes great use of flying knees, backkicks and highkicks
+Fast on his feet
+Good ground and pound

-No grappling used so far
-Not that hard to take down when clinched with

Analysis:

This could be closer than people think. Zaromskis is a more powerful hitter than Sakurai and is faster and more versatile. I could see Sakurai getting KO'd if this stays standing, but with Zaromskis having been taken down by Ikemoto, Sakurai can do the same, but much better.

But don't forget how Gomi mauled Sakurai. If this stays standing, look for Zaromskis to spring an upset.

My Take:

Sakurai by submission, Round 2. Marius has an advantage striking but Sakurai is a better all rounder. That said, Sakurai is 1.15, and Zaromskis is 5.75.

Don't bet on Sakurai, even his odds to win the tournament outright are disgusting, at 1.67. Zaromskis comes in at an astonishing 12.00 to win outright, worth a small play.

Bonus pick: Galvao vs. Sakurai

If High or Marius win, ignore this. Sakurai is the worst matchup for Galvao, having an excellent submission defense good kickboxing and a decent sprawl. Galvao is one dimensional, but like Maia and Jacaré, that one dimension is so good.

Galvao trains at Black House, you know, Machida, Anderson, Nogueira, Jacaré...those guys. I think if he comes in with a good gameplan and refuses to do anything other than take Sakurai down, the same Sakurai who was submitted by Baron not long ago, this match should be his.

But Sakurai will be hard to control, probably being able to escape many submission attempts and repel many takedown shots, and threaten Galvao every minute with striking.

My Take:

Andre Galvao by submission, Round 2, becoming the first ever DREAM welterweight champion, pulling off a huge upset in the process.

Recap on GP odds to win outright

Marius Zaromskis
12.00

Hayato Sakurai
1.67

Andre Galvao
4.00

Jason High
6.00

Other (Seichi Ikemoto/Tarec Saffiedine)
6.00

UFC 100 - Full Card

2009-07-05T14:08:00.006+01:00

UNDERCARD

Matt 'The Real One' Grice vs. Shannon Gugerty
(155lbs/70kg)

Matt Grice
9-2-0

+Strong wrestler

+Good top control

-Does not look comfortable striking

-Sub-par submission game

Shannon Gugerty
11-3-0

+Jiu Jitsu brown belt
+Some Muay Thai background

-Poor wrestling

Analysis:

Grice could be thought of as a lesser version of Mitsuhiro Ishida or Gray Maynard, being a wrestler with good top control and little ability to finish a fight, except probably without the awesome submission defense, which is pretty crucial.

Gugerty has an advantage on the feet or on the ground, so he Grice is going to need a good strategy here.

My Take:

Gugerty by sub, round 1. Grice is a wrestler and nothing else.

CB 'The Doberman' Dollaway vs. Tom 'The Filthy Mauler' Lawlor
(185lbs/84kg)

CB Dollaway
8-1-0

+NCAA All-American wrestler
+Passable striking and grappling

-Still one dimensional

Tom Lawlor
5-1-0

+Shoots for takedowns fast
+Works hard enough from top position
+Persistent with takedowns

-One-dimensional without submission or striking skills

Analysis:

Lawlor is pretty much a wrestler, being a 3-time National Wrestling Collegiate Association champion in college and an all state wrestler in high school. Bad matchup for him here, what with CB Dollaway being an All-American wrestler in college.

Neither have submission skills worth noting, but Dollaway has at least some striking, meaning he's better in the two areas where the fight will take place.

My Take:

Dollaway by unanimous decision, by being better than Lawlor at his strength, wrestling, and by using better stand-up.

Dong Hyun 'Stun Gun' Kim vs. Jonathan 'The Road Warrior' Goulet

(170lbs/77kg)

Dong Hyun Kim
11-0-1-1

+4th degree Judo black belt
+Extremely difficult to shake off in clinch
+Has a very good habit of taking the back

-Bad standup defense
-Weak cardio
-Very few successful submissions

Jonathan Goulet
22-10-0

+Jiu Jitsu purple belt
+Has the Basics of Muay Thai
+Decent takedowns

-Bad takedown defense
-Guard not hard to pass
-Basic defense standing

Analysis:

Goulet has striking in his favor, but will need to avoid the clinch like the plague. Kim took down Parisyan multiple times from the clinch and Parisyan is a Judo black belt. Kim will likely take Grant down and keep him there, but Grant may have a better chance of getting back up than Goulet would have had.

I don't see a submission win, nor a knockout for either fighter.

My Take:

I'll take Kim via unanimous decision, since I don't think Grant will be able to keep himself from being taken down.

Jon 'Bones' Jones vs. Jake O'Brien
(205lbs/93kg)

Jon Jones
8-0-0

+Junior College wrestling champion at Iowa
+Marvelous hip throws
+Good Thai Boxing
+Extreme reach advantage; stands at 6'4
+Confident enough to try rare techniques

-Bad cardio
-Inexperienced; may react badly to being hit

Jake O'Brien
11-2-0

+Three time high school champion wrestler
+Good ground control
+Persistent takedowns

-Shots horribly telegraphed
-Too tentative when in an opponents guard
-No submission wins
-Below average striking

Analysis:

Jon Jones is being watched carefully by hardcore fans that believe they have found a prodigy, a future champ, after he ragdolled Bonnar and almost KO'd him on several occasions. The 21-year old has certainly warranted their praise, but it will be a better test for him to fight O'Brien, who is a skilled wrestler and will not likely get thrown with ease.

O'Brien is a three time high school state wrestling champion, and has had a successful run at heavyweight, only to losing to Andrei Arlovski and Cain Velasquez, and having a good win over Heath Herring.

If Jones stops the takedown, he should take this, and with Jones being a Junior College wrestling champ himself, that should be very doable.

My Take:

I'm going to guess that Jones schools O'Brien in the standup, and that their wrestling cancels out, with Jones scoring a 2nd Round TKO.

That's what I expect, but with Jones at 1.20 and O'Brien at 4.00, there is no real value on Jones, and there's always hope that O'Brien will take some benefits of experience to defeat Jones, such as cardio.

Jim Miller vs. Mac Danzig (155lbs/70kg)

Jim Miller
13-2-0

+Very dangerous grappler
+Aggressive striking and good hand speed
+Extremely slick sweeps and submissions off back
+Aggressive from top position
+Great cardio

-Not much takedown defense
-Leaves himself open in stand-up defense

Mac Danzig

18-6-1

+Well rounded; possesses good sprawl, good striking and good grappling.
+Very aggressive ground and pound

-Does not excel in any one area
-Not good off back

Analysis:

Jim Miller is a ground specialist who has submitted a BJJ black belt in David Baron, and one of his biggest assets is that he fights at such a frenetic pace. Holes in his stand-up are made smaller by the fact that he charges for takedowns in the middle of his striking flurries, making it difficult to sprawl against.

Miller has only been beaten by Frank Edgar and Gray Maynard by decision, two great wrestlers with great sub-defense.

Danzig has a decent sprawl, but Mark Bocek took him down and was able to keep him there for a while. He will not want to repeat a performance like that against Miller.

My Take:

Miller by unanimous decision, but since he's at 1.53, I would feel better backing Danzig at 2.55.

Mark 'The Hammer' Coleman vs. Stephan 'The American Psycho' Bonnar
(205lbs/93kg)

Mark Coleman
15-9-0

+Came 7th in 1992 Olympics at the 100kg class; 2nd in FILA World Freestyle Wrestling Championship. Still one of the best wrestlers in MMA

-Zero cardio
-Years of competition and age have left him badly worn
-Ability to finish fights very suspect

Notable Wins:
Igor Vovchanchyn (2000)
Dan Severn (1997)

Stephan Bonnar
11-5-0

+Excellent heart and chin
+Good Jiu Jitsu
+Former Golden Gloves boxer

-Not much wrestling or takedown defense

Analysis:

Coleman is still one of the best wrestlers in MMA, but only for one round. Anymore than that, he simply is not able to continue due to horrible cardio that will not likely improve at this stage of his career, certainly not now that we have to add weight cutting into the mix. It was amazing that Shogun took so long to TKO him, based on how horrible his movement was.

I expect this to be similar, but with Bonnar having the cardio that Shogun lacked in UFC 93. Coleman will likely score a takedown or two, fail to do anything with it, and Bonnar will use his BJJ to stand, and he will punish Coleman in the standup.

My Take:

Bonnar by TKO, Round 3. Coleman has way too much mileage on him. Although even still, with Coleman at 3.85 and Bonnar at 1.27, it is sort of tempting to bet on Coleman.

MAIN CARD

Yoshiro Akiyama vs. Alan 'The Talent' Belcher
(185lbs/84kg)

Yoshiro Akiyama
12-1-0

+Very good judoka; gold medalist in the 2002 Asian Games
+Punches hard
+Slick enough with submissions

-Not light on his feet
-Does not have fast takedowns

Alan Belcher
14-5-0

+Competent Jiu Jitsu
+Knows how to KO

-Rudimentary takedown defense
-Poor boxing defense

Analysis:

Though Akiyama is a ground fighter, primarily, his inclination to strike and lack of explosive takedowns will probably mean that this stays a striking match. I give Akiyama an advantage in that department, as Belcher was being picked apart by Kang before Belcher got the guillotine.

Akiyama should have a decent advantage on the ground, but I wouldn't expect him to submit the BJJ purple belt, as Akiyama hasn't submitted a ranked opponent yet.

My Take:

Akiyama by unanimous decision, both by outstriking the American and by outworking him on the ground. Like a lot of the favourites on the card, though, Akiyama offers little value at 1.34, but Belcher may be worth a small play at 3.30.

Jon Fitch vs. Paulo Thiago
(170lbs/77kg)

Jon Fitch
18-3-0

+As much heart as any MMA fighter
+Awesome chin
+Jiu Jitsu black belt
+Wonderful cardio

-Not that hard a hitter
-Not a great offensive wrestler

Notable Wins:
Diego Sanchez (2007)
Thiago Alves (2006)

Paulo Thiago

+Great chin
+Power puncher
+Jiu Jitsu black belt

-Does not have good defensive head movement or footwork -Striking combinations basic
-Questionable takedowns

Notable Wins:
Josh Koscheck (2009)

Analysis:

This could be a pretty closely contested affair. Thiago was unknown to every MMA fan in the northern hemisphere until he got the TKO over Josh Koscheck earlier this year, sending him into the welterweight rankings. Fitch has gone 8-0 in UFC, though without defeating many highly ranked opponents, as neither Sanchez nor Alves were highly ranked at the time.

Alves has a great chin, as Koscheck dropped a heavy bomb on him early, which did not stumble him. Fitch's chin however, survived a war from Georges St.Pierre, and will not likely get KO'd.

He's unlikely to get submitted too, being a BJJ black belt - he's probably a better wrestler than Thiago anyway, so it probably wont be an issue.

Thiago does throw hard, but was losing decisively to Koscheck before he got a TKO which was not conclusive. Fitch is understandably favourite for all these reasons, and after what happened to Koscheck, he won't take his opponent lightly.

Thiago does not have good striking combinations, and really, only KO'd Koscheck because Koscheck leaned into the uppercut. Doubtful he'll outstrike Fitch.

My Take:

Unless Thiago lands a Manhoef style haymaker, Fitch will dispose of him easily. Fitch by TKO, Round 2.

There is little value in Fitch at 1.20. Thiago might be worth small money at 4.00, but that would probably just be throwing money away, really.

Dan 'Hendo' Henderson vs. Michael 'The Count' Bisping
(185lbs/84kg)

Dan Henderson
24-7-0

+Olympian; qualified for the US greco-roman wrestling team in '92 and '96
+Big punching power
+Great sub defense
+Rock hard chin

-Bad cardio
-Tendency to stick head down and brawl
-Sometimes inaggressive when opponent is on their back
-No submissions

Notable Wins:
Rich Franklin (2009)
Rousimar Palhares (2008)
Wanderlei Silva (2007)
Vitor Belfort (2006)
Kazuo Misaki (2006)
Murilo Bustamante x2 (2005, 2003)
Ryo Chonan (2005)
Murilo Rua (2001)
Renzo Gracie (2001)
Renato Sobral (2000)
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (2000)
Carlos Newton (1998)

Michael Bisping
17-1-0

+Good cardio
+Good technical counterstriker; uses Muay Thai and kickboxing combinations well
+Great use of Muay Thai clinch

-Poor submission skill
-Does not have one strike KO power
-Questionable wrestling

Analysis:

Henderson is a 38 year old former olympian, who still hasn't had a (T)KO loss in his 31 fight career. Bisping is a relative newcomer, but at 29 years old and having 18 fights, he is not green at all.

A huge problem presents itself for Bisping, and that is how to stop Henderson's takedowns. He could probably win the standup simply by pulling the Misaki strategy and sticking and moving, but sooner or later, he is going to have to sprawl.

Considering Bisping/Hammil, it's hard to see how he'll deal with Henderson; one could only hope that Rampage was training wrestling with Bisping 24/7, but even then Bisping does not have Rampage's strength.

Bisping also is not known for submissions, and if Hendo puts him on his back, expect the American to use much more aggressive techniques than his usual mouth covering. Bisping is going to have to do what he did to Leben to win, stick and move, be elusive and above all else, avoid clinching.

My Take:

I expect this to look like Henderson/Franklin, with the American winning the first two rounds, putting the Englishman on his back, using some GnP and landing one or two big punches, and possibly gassing and losing the third, but doing enough to win convincingly and getting the unanimous decision.

Henderson enters at 1.43, while Bisping enters at 2.90. But Henderson is pretty much everything Matt Hammil is but much better. Henderson is a safe bet.

Georges 'Rush' St-Pierre vs. Thiago 'Pitbull' Alves
(170lbs/77kg)

Georges St.Pierre
18-2-0

+Olympic calibre wrestling
+Excellent blend of Kyokushin karate, boxing, and Muay Thai
+Explosive athlete
+Switches from striking to takedowns superbly
+Great training camp with brilliant gameplans
+Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt
+Ferocious ground and pound
+Excellent cardio

-May have trouble fighting under pressure
-Possible lack of heart

Notable Wins:
BJ Penn x2 (2009, 2006)
Jon Fitch (2008)
Matt Serra (2008)
Matt Hughes x2 (2007, 2006)
Josh Koscheck (2007)
Karo Parisyan (2004)

Thiago Alves
16-3-0

+Ferociously powerful striker
+Excellent Muay Thai combinations
+Probably the largest welterweight in the division
+Fantastic sprawl
+Very good at countering takedown attempts with knees

-Questionable cardio
-May have difficulty making weight
-No submissions - only submission win was by 'punches.'
-No offensive wrestling

Notable Wins:
Josh Koscheck (2008)
Matt Hughes (2008)
Karo Parisyan (2008)

Analysis:

Thiago Alves is the one man is Georges St.Pierre's way before he really has cleaned out the welterweight division, but it just so happens that this will likely be the toughest matchup there is.

Alves has a wonderful sprawl and very dangerous striking, meaning that he could cause GSP a ton of problems, and this should come down to whether Alves sprawl is better than GSP's takedowns or vice versa.

If Alves has enough confidance in his sprawl, he may open up with his Muay Thai, in which case he could do severe damage, but if he is put on his back successfully, and takes some GnP, then GSP will likely put him off balance, making him weary of being taken down, and thus fight defensively, and I could easily see GSP at that point outstriking him.

Another thing that has to be noted is that GSP has a black belt in BJJ, so there is a huge possiblity that Alves could get subbed on the ground, himsef being at purple belt level.

My Take:

If Alves outsprawls St.Pierre, he'll probably win, but if St.Pierre outwrestles Alves, he'll probably win. At the moment I am leaning towards Alves, and at 3.60 he is a solid underdog. Very little value in betting at GSP at 1.29.

Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir
(265lbs/120kg)

Brock Lesnar
3-1-0

+Excellent wrestler; 2000 NCAA Heavyweight champion
+Extremely dangerous punching power
+Very athletic; 285lbs frame, but still moves very explosively
+Huge reach advantage

-Questionable sub defense
-Unreliable cardio
-Slow handspeed
-No boxing footwork or head movement

Notable Wins:
Randy Couture (2008)
Heath Herring (2008)

Frank Mir
12-3-0

+Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt
+Excellent killer instinct
+Good kickboxing

-Questionable cardio
-Not fast on feet

Notable Wins:
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (2008)
Brock Lesnar (2008)
Tim Sylvia (2004)

Analysis:

This will likely be a boxing match for the first round or two, as Lesnar wil likely be unwilling to risk fighting in Mir's guard, and Mir will not likely try to take Lesnar down in the early rounds, blowing his load early.

The striking is pretty even, with Mir probably having slighting cleaner and more technical kickboxing, and Lesnar being the harder hitter, with one punch KO power.

Whoever wins the striking will likely win the fight. If Lesnar wins it, Mir will be forced to try to take him down, maybe through pulling guard, and if he's losing the standup, he likely will be too rocked and gassed to succeed. If Mir gains the edge, Lesnar will be forced to take him down, where Mir will have a great chance of subbing him.

My Take:

Lesnar may have an edge in standup, and he should be able to keep it off the ground. At 1.40, there's very little value in backing Lesnar.

But at 2.90, Mir is tempting. His standup looks good enough to damage Lesnar, and his ground game should be good enough to sub him if Lesnar reverts to wrestling instincts. At 2.90, Mir is a solid bet. Lesnar enters at 1.40

UFC 99: The Comeback - Main Card

2009-06-11T13:13:00.012+01:00

Mirko 'Cro Cop' Filipovic vs. Mostapha Al-turk
(265lbs/120kg)

Mirko Flipovic
24-6-2

+Successful amateur and professional boxer; 40-5 amateur record, 12-5 professional record
+K-1 kickboxer, finishing with a 16-7 record, and wins over many K-1 champions
+Hits extremely hard

-Zero submission game
-Striking has been becoming primitive, relying on left high kick more than combinations
-Many injuries, leading to much inactivity over the last year

Notable Wins:
Josh Barnett x3 (2006, 2005, 2004)
Mark Coleman (2005)
Kevin Randleman (2004)
Igor Vovchanchyn (2000)

Mostapha al-Turk
6-4-0

+Shoots for takedowns well
+ADCC Europe winner
+Persistent in trying for takedowns

-Basic standup
-No submission wins, despite being a submission wrestler
-Weak takedowns

Analysis:

Even in Cro Cop's horrible state that started in 2007 and continued throughout 2008, it is hard to see him losing to al-Turk, who really does not offer anything dangerous at this point. It's hard to see this going any way other than similar to the Kongo/al-Turk fight.

Mirko's sprawl may not be what it was, since Overeem tossed him in their fight, but al-Turk is not Overeem, and if Mirko has trained, and has recovered for the most part from his injuries, he really should take this without breaking a sweat.

My Take:

In case you haven't figured out, I'm backing Cro Cop, even the 'new' Cro Cop. I know that it's risky betting on the favorite, but really, how does Cro Cop lose?

Mirko enters at 1.20, al-Turk massive underdog at 4.00.

Spencer 'King' Fisher vs. Caol 'Uno Shoten' Uno
(155lbs/70kg)

Spencer Fisher
22-4-0

+Highly aggressive striker
+Possesses heart
+Good off back

-Bad wrestling
-Guard is open to ground and pound

Caol Uno
25-11-4

+ADCC grappler with wonderful submission defense +Decent boxing technique
+Excellent takedown defense

-Leaves himself open in the standup

Notable Wins:
Mitsuhiro Ishida (2008)

Analysis:

Uno is a better wrestler and grappler than Fisher, and would have been a sure favourite to win this fight a few years ago - even now he still could easily take Spencer down and get the submission; he is the first and only person to submit Ishida, who was considered one of the 'unsubmittables' of MMA, so he has the skills to sub Fisher.

Uno has passable standup, enough to survive with Fisher if he fights smart and doesn't get bullrushed, but likewise, Fisher BJJ is also at a level where he should not get subbed as easy as that - a number of his wins are by submission.

If he doesn't fight smart, Fisher could take him out decisively with strikes.

My Take:

Uno by submission, wrestling Fisher down, wearing him down with GnP, and submitting him, Round 2.

Oddly enough, Fisher is heavy favorite at 1.48, while Uno is big underdog at 2.70.

Dan 'The Outlaw' Hardy vs. Marcus 'The Irish Hand Grenade' Davis
(170lbs/77kg)

Dan Hardy
21-6-0

+Hard and fast Muay Thai
+Light on his feet
+Has some Tae Kwon Do incorporated into his striking

-Jiu Jitsu blue belt
-No offensive wrestling

Marcus Davis
16-4-0

+Professional boxing experience
+Good chin and recovery time;never KO'd
+Good cardio

-Striking defense can get sloppy
-Does not excel at wrestling or grappling

Analysis:

This will be a real stand and banger, of that I have no doubt. Marcus Davis has a professional boxing record of 17-1-2, has a terrific chin, and punches hard. His ground game and wrestling are not good enough for him to want to do anything other than strike.

Same thing with Hardy, a BJJ blue belt, with a background in Tae Kwon Do, good Thai boxing, and became interested in MMA because of training with Shaolin monks. Both hit hard, so it's going to be an uncertain bet either way, and both have never been knocked out. After seeing Lytle vs. Davis and Taylor vs. Davis it's certain that Davis has a rock solid chin.

My Take:

I think Davis will win via heart and chin; their striking is on a pretty close level and it could end with one punch, so it'll probably be something like this that decides the outcome.

Davis is huge favorite at 1.47, and Hardy is big underdog at 2.75, and with a brawl like this, Hardy may be a good play.

Mike 'Quick' Swick vs. Ben 'Killa B' Saunders
(170lbs/77kg)

Mike Swick
13-2-0

+Good boxing/Thai boxing
+Good wrestler with good shoots
+Good takedown defense

-Not excellent at anything
-Very few submissions

Ben Saunders
7-0-2

+Excellent Thai Boxing with a lethal Muay Thai clinch +Decent Jiu Jitsu
+Decent sprawl

-Primarily a range fighter; does not look comfortable exchanging up close
-No head movement, and can be hit

Analysis:

Saunders has excellent kicks for long range and an even better Muay Thai clinch for very close range, but may have a weakness at the range in between, where punches are exchanged. Swick is a pretty well rounded striker/wrestler/grappler, without excelling in any field.

I believe if Saunders can keep it standing then it should be his fight, but if not, he'll end up dropping a unanimous decision. Saunders is a purple belt at BJJ, so he should at least be able to survive on the ground without suffering a TKO.

I think the ground games are too evenly matched for a submission in this one, but if there is a TKO I think it will come from the younger, unbeaten man in Saunders.

My Take:

Hard to choose; if Swick take him down he could keep him there for a while, winning a decision on the way, but standing I say Saunders has a big advantage. I'm going with Saunders by TKO, Round 3.

Little value with Swick, at 1.47, but Saunders enters with a good price at 2.75.

Cheick Kongo vs. Cain Velasquez (265lbs/120kg)

Cheick Kongo
14-4-1

+6'4, long reach
+Good combination of Muay Thai and Savate
+Powerful, technical striker

-Very average wrestler
-Frequently hits opponents with groin shots
-Questionable heart
-No submission skill

Cain Velasquez
5-0-0

+Very good wrestler
+Good aggressive ground and pound
+Good Jiu Jitsu

-Lack of experience
-Haven't seen that much of him standing or grappling yet

Analysis:

Kongo is a very tall, very muscular striker, but he won't outmuscle Velasquez. Velasquez is a much better wrestler than Herring, who controlled Kongo on the ground pretty well, and his GnP is considerably better than Herring's as well.

Kongo's sprawl is always improving, but has it improved enough to stop Velasquez' shots? Doubtful; Kongo will need to stay out of range and score a fast knockout. Probably try to limit kicks and clinching - unless it's to deliver a low blow.

My Take:

Velasquez should steamroll Kongo for his 6th consecutive (T)KO. Expect it to look like Herring/Kongo only with more GnP.

Having said that, with Kongo at 2.25, and Velasquez at 1.56, not sure it's worth backing Cain at those odds.

Wanderlei 'The Axe Murderer' Silva vs. Rich 'Ace' Franklin
(195lbs/89kg)

Wanderlei Silva
32-9-1

+Brutal punching power
+Vicious killer instinct
+Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt

-One dimensional striker whose only offense consists of hooks
-Chin appears to have been weakened by so many brutal KO's
-Not a good wrestler

Notable Wins:
Keith Jardine (2008)
Kazuyuki Fujita (2006)
Ricardo Arona (2005)
Quinton Jackson x2 (2004, 2003)
Kazushi Sakuraba x3 (2003, 2001, 2001)
Dan Henderson (2000)

Rich Franklin
24-4-0

+Very good sprawl
+Solid and powerful kickboxing
+Great cardio
+Never been subbed; Brazilian Jiu Jitsu brown belt

-No offensive wrestling
-Takes time to find striking rythym

Analysis:

People sometimes discredit Franklin's chin. This is folly; he took a beating from Anderson and Machida before he went down. If he had a bad chin, he would have been out when Henderson hit him in the opening minutes of their fight.

Wanderlei, I don't think the same can be said for. Ever since the Cro Cop left high kick, his chin has not been looking good. A single punch from Henderson and Rampage were all that were needed to put his lights out.

Franklin will probably make use of this fact, using his technical kickboxing to score more blows and take advantage of Silva's suspect chin, and try to avoid eating a hook like the one that floored Jardine.

My Take:

I'll take Franklin by 3rd Round TKO, due to Wand's chin being shot, and him not really having any proper Muay Thai - all he throws is hooks.

Franklin is strong favorite at 1.69, while Wanderlei enters at 2.15. I am still taking Franklin on this one.

Strikeforce: Lawler vs. Shields Main Card

2009-06-04T18:57:00.021+01:00

Kevin 'The Monster' Randleman vs. Mike Whitehead
(205lbs/86kg)

Kevin Randleman
17-12-0

+Good wrestling; NCAA title in 1997
+Strength still intact
+Still possesses punching power

-Bad on the ground
-Weak chin
-Does not use combinations; throws power hooks
-Second fight after recovering from staph

Notable Wins:
Mirko Filipovic (2004)
Renato Sobral (2002)

Mike Whitehead
23-6-0

+ADCC qualifier
+Three time All American wrestler

-Lacking quality striking

Analysis:

Randleman was a NCAA Division I champion back in 1997, but this is 2009, and Randleman is in the downward stage of his career. Following his 2006 first round submission loss to Shogun Rua, Randleman developed a severe staph infection, and only returned in an unconvincing decision win over Ryo Kawamura in 2008. His standup still probably packs a punch, but does not use combos or anything other than power punches. He does not have a good chin, and sub defense is nothing special.

Mike Whitehead was never a top tier fighter, but he at least has some ground skills and a wrestling base, but with limited striking - Babalu should not be able to outstrike any upper echelon light heavyweight. Whitehead is a lower tier fighter, with well roundedness, but without prominent skills in any area.

My Take:

While miles past his prime, Randleman shouldn't have trouble outwrestling Whitehead and getting the decision. But he is unpredictable, the Monster. He might end up diving into a submission.

Both Randleman and Whitehead enter at €1.87, so of course I advise betting on Randleman.

Phil 'The New York Badass' Baroni vs. Joe 'Diesel' Riggs
(170lbs/77kg)

Phil Baroni
13-10-0

+Decent boxing/kickboxing
+Punching power still there, for the most part

-Still no submission game
-Lax defense

Joe Riggs
29-10-0-1

+Former All American wrestler
+Knows how to punch

-Bad ground game
-Wrestling skill not on par with his credentials -Questionable chin

Analysis:

Phil Baroni, while past his best, possesses decent boxing, and still has decent punching power. Baroni, really, was never an evolved MMA fighter, without good ground skills and a record of 13-10, he was and is a one dimensional striker.

Which is why they matched him up with Joe Riggs, a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu blue belt. This is going to be a standup affair, with large likelihood of fireworks.

Riggs had a better record, 29-10, but never beat anyone of note - except for Nick Diaz in 2004. Riggs really does not have as much going for him as Baroni as a fighter.

My Take:

I'll take Baroni by KO, similar to Misaki, I think Riggs is too slow to wrestle with Baroni, and I give Baroni an edge in striking. Baroni enters at €1.91, while Riggs enters at €1.83.

Nick 'Bad Boy' Diaz vs. Scott 'Hands of Steel' Smith
(179lbs/81kg)

Nick Diaz
19-7-0

+Great heart
+Great chin
+Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt
+Good boxer

-Tendency to smoke weed may lead to unpredictable side effects - and lead to 'Wins' being turned into 'No Contests.'
-Defense bad - conent to block punches with his face
-Not skilled in wrestling

Scott Smith
16-5-0

+Good striking power
+Decent overall striking

-Holes in defense
-Weak on the ground

Analysis:

Nick Diaz is a solid boxer with an awesome chin, who doesn't possess one punch KO power, but 100 punch KO power, i.e., he's content to pepper at his opponents until they fall down. Added to this, he is a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt under Cesar Gracie, and has submitted Takanori Gomi using a gogoplata, while having a broken orbital and being high on marijuana.

Scott Smith is a KO puncher, with 13 of his 15 wins coming by (T)KO, but came up woefully short against Robbie Lawler last summer, and has had zero relevant wins. Smith is one dimensional brawler for the most part, with losses to James Irvin and Patrick Coté not reassuring.

My Take:

I see Diaz losing the standup, taking some punishment, the giving some, then winning the standup, then winning the fight by TKO. But with Diaz at €1.31, and Smith at €3.50, it's way too risky to bet on Diaz, especially since its not that hard to hit his jaw, and since Smith is a hard hitter.

I'd advise betting on Smith.

Andrei 'The Pitbull' Arlovski vs. Brett 'The Grim' Rogers
(265lbs/120kg)

Andrei Arlovski
15-6-0

+World class technical boxing technique; trains in one of the best boxing camps on earth
+Fast hands packing lethal knockout power
+Good kickboxing to complement
+Excellent sprawl
+International Master of Sports at Sport Sambo; won silver medal in World Sambo Championship and a silver medal in the Sambo World Cup in about 1999

-Questionable chin
-Psychological aspect may be an issue
-Can be overaggressive

Notable Wins:
Roy Nelson (2008)
Ben Rothwell (2008)
Tim Sylvia (2005)

Brett Rogers
9-0-0

+KO power in hands
+Size advantage; 6'5 and 265lbs

-Striking rough and unclean, constists of little more than hooks
-Bad sprawl
-No submission game

Analysis:

Arlovski is heavy favourite here and rightly so; he is one of the best boxers in MMA, and Rogers is nothing special as far as striking goes, and even less regarding the rest of his game.

Arlovski trains with Freddy Roach, a boxing trainer who trains/trained with the likes of Oscar de la Hoya, Manny Pacquiao, Mike Tyson and Wladimir Klitschko, and his standup seems a fluid and as explosive as ever. But one has to keep in mind how he reacted after his TKO loss to Tim Sylvia, in which he lost his killer instinct completely, and it wasn't until his demolition of Ben Rothwell in 2008 that he unleashed on his opponent without timidity.

My Take:

Only way Rogers takes this is by an extremely unlikely power shot to Arlovski's jaw. He may have the power to KO the Belorussian, but Arlovski's jaw, while not steel, isn't crystal. Rogers will need to land something significant to take him out.

Won't come to that in all likelihood. Arlovski by boxing clinic, KO, Round 1. Arlovski is at €1.20, while Rogers is massive underdog at €4.00. But there is such an incredible difference in their striking - not to mention ground games - that I am still more drawn towards Arlovski than Rogers.

'Ruthless' Robbie Lawler vs. Jake Shields
(185lbs/84kg)

Robbie Lawler
16-4-0

+Hard hitter
+Good striker; strings good Muay Thai combinations together
+Very good finisher with damaging ground and pound

-Can get extremely wild when striking
-Sprawl is not top level
-Poor ground game

Jake Shields
22-4-1

+Very good wrestler
+Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt; came 3rd in ADCC 77kg in 2005.
+Never submitted

-Average standup
-Can be passive in dominant positions

Analysis:

Lawler is a hard hitter, and 15 of his 18 wins have come by (T)KO. Jake Shields is a good wrestler riding an 11 fight win streak, and has some great sub defense, and is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, but is not an exciting fighter, and can be timid enough when in dominant position. But he is very good at not letting people up, so I think Lawler may be in trouble.

Lawler is a versatile kickboxer, and this all depends on his sprawl. If it stays standing, Lawler is good, but that will be crucial. Shields does have good wrestling credentials, qualifying for the US in the Fila Nationals and World Team Trials in the junior and university men's divisions, and finishing 2nd in the Amateur Athletic Union Freestyle Championships. He also has a bronze medal from ADCC 2005 in the 77kg class.

My Take:

Lawler's sub loss to Miller was not that long ago, in 2006, and Shields is more than capable of doing the same, but I would expect a decision before a submission, in that case.

I would still give Lawler the edge, since his striking is so much better than Shields, and he has a size advantage, but it is a dangerous matchup for Lawler in terms of 'style vs. style.'

Lawler comes in at €1.83 and Shields at €1.91, so betting on Lawler makes sense.

DREAM.9 - Featherweight GP 2nd Round + Super Hulk Tournament

2009-05-14T10:14:00.023+01:00

Bob 'The Beast' Sapp vs Ikuhisa 'The Punk' Minowa

Bob Sapp
9-3-1

+350lb, musclebound frame
+Can punch hard, albeit slow

-No heart
-No pain tolerance
-Horrible cardio
-Poor discipline; has displayed inability to follow rules

Ikuhisa Minowa
41-30-8

+ Heart and determination
+Good submission game

-Tremendously undersized for an openweight tournament
-Plays to the crowd, resulting in flashy, useless moves
-Basic standup

Notable Wins:
Gilbert Yvel (2005)

Analysis:

Bizarre. The undersized 181lb Minowa will be hard pressed to land a submission against his 350lb opponent, as the American would likely simply power out of every submission, like with Nogueira, even if that was seven years ago.

Even if he does get Sapp down, it's likely he'll find it next to impossible to keep him there. Sapp has a massive advantage standing, and it's going to be crucial for him to try and get this to the ground somehow. But Minowa couldn't beat Zuluzinho, and Zulu was just a fat, unathetic, Brazilian Sapp.

My Take:

Sapp will not likely get subbed. He'll probably clobber Minowa standing and Minowa's guard will not likely be good enough to keep him protected from any GnP. Sapp by KO, Round 1 through retarded size advantage.

Minowa enters at €2.60 and Sapp at €1.50, but I don't see Minowa winning. Sapp is a better bet.

Hong Man Choi vs José Canseco
(Openweight)

Hong Man Choi
1-2-0

+Enormous reach advantage, stands at 7'2
+Good chin
+Good heart

-Horrendous mobility
-Terrible standup
-No ground game
-No GnP

José Canseco
0-0-0

-No MMA skills whatsoever

Analysis:

Choi is an MMA fighter. A bad one, with no ground game, poor standup, and one who walks like a zombie, but an MMA fighter nonetheless. Canseco is a retired baseball player, with no MMA experience, and barely any fighting experience whatsoever.

Canseco might survive for a while by running and keeping distance, but Choi will very likely knock him down and finish him after a while, and that will be that.

My Take:

No point in betting on Canseco, Choi is pretty much a safe bet. Shame it isn't listed on any sportsbooks I could find.

Jan 'The Giant' Nortje vs Rameau Thierry 'The African Assassin' Sokoudjou
(Openweight)

Jan Nortje
2-5-0

+Big puncher
+Very large reach, stands at 6'10

-Bad Cardio
-No ground game
-No wrestling
-Plodding standup without footwork or head movement

Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou
5-4-0

+Severe punching/kicking power
+Judo background

-Bad cardio
-Sub-par ground game
-Poor heart

Notable wins:
Ricardo Arona (2007)
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (2007)

Analysis:

This should be over quickly. Both men start strong and fade in later rounds. Both are big hitters, both have a poor ground game.

Sokoudjou suffers from tremendous size disadvantage. He has better movement than the plodding Nortje, and it's easily possible for him to put the giant down if he connects right. But with Nortje at 6'10, that might be difficult - it was difficult for Peter Aerts.

But Nortje is a kickboxer, with absolutely no ground game. And Sokoudjou has one. A minute one, but it still exists. This is a huge advantage.

My Take:

MMA fighter vs kickboxer, MMA fighter should win, I think Sokoudjou will win by GnP TKO or sub, even.

But Sokoudjou is €1.38, which is too heavy a favourite, especially with someone who hits as hard as Nortje, who comes in a €3.00, a very practical price.

Gegard 'The Young Vagabond' Mousasi vs Mark 'Super Samoan' Hunt
(Openweight)

Gegard Mousasi
24-2-1

+Technical and high quality boxer/kickboxer; Dutch amateur boxing champion
+Good sub defense
+Strategic fighter

-Takedowns and takedowns defense need improvement

Notable wins:
Ronaldo 'Jacaré' de Souza (2008)

Mark Hunt
5-5-0

+Marvellous chin
+Still probably has most of his punching intact
+K-1 World Grand Prix winner in 2001

-Apalling wrestling skill
-Terrible submission skill
-In a tremenous downwward spiral; KO'd by Manhoef at NYE, didn't win once in 2008.

Notable wins:
Wanderlei Silva (2005)
Mirko 'Cro Cop' Filipovic (2005)

Analysis:

Mousasi's entry into the 'Super Hulk Tounament' comes against one of its most difficult participants, one who isn't a freakish giant or a baseball player.

Expect a much more powerful Mousasi to turn up against Hunt, and expect him to take advantage of the fact that Hunt has a horrendous takedown defense - Wanderlei Silva took him down plenty - and use his grappling if things go bad on the feet.
There is also the question if Hunt can take the punishment he once could. Too many haymakers and high kicks?

My Take:

I expect Mousasi to win this via technical striking advantage or by sub. Unless Hunt lands something massive - which is a real possibility - this should be Gegard's fight, and this is reflected in him coming in at €1.54.

But Hunt still has power, and is a decent underdog bet at €2.55.

Gesias 'JZ' Calvancante vs Tatsuya 'Crusher' Kawajiri
(70kg/154lbs)

Gesias Calvancante
14-2-1-1

+Brutal knockout power
+Complete standup
+Competent ground fighter
+Decent wrestler

-Not strategic
-Maybe lacks heart

Notable wins:
Vitor Ribeiro 2007)
Caol Uno (2006)
Rani Yahya (2006)

Tatsuya Kawajiri
23-5-2

+Good wrestler
+Good chin
+Swings with force

-Standup defense wide open
-Not a high quality, complete striker

Notable wins:
Vitor Ribeiro (2004)

Analysis:

Calvancante has cleaner and more powerful striking than Kawajiri, and if it stays standing, he'll likely do what Eddie Alvarez did in the 2008 Lightweight GP and TKO him.

I doubt Kawajiri will be able to do much to him on the ground, and I expect them to be stood up after Crusher's takedowns resulting in inactivity.

I definitely would expect a finish, most likely a KO of the night finish.

My Take:

Calvancante's fight to lose, he comes in at €1.56, and his Japanese opponent at €2.60. I think Calvancante should really be able to pull this off, and at this point, I think he's better value than Kawajiri.

Hideo Tokoro vs. Abel Cullum
(63kg/139lbs)

Hideo Tokoro

21-16-1

+Very good off back
+Decent stand up

-Defensive holes in standup
-No great wrestling

Abel Cullum

14-2-0

+Very dogged with takedowns
+Great sub game
+Decent standup

-Takedowns still nothing incredible

Analysis:

Tokoro is more dangerous of his back than Wicky, but he lacks the same ability to scramble out from under opponents. Cullum has never been subbed and I would be surprised if Tokoro managed it.

However he could try to avoid the ground and stay standing, where he has an advantage over the American, which he will find hard to do with Cullum's persistent takedowns. He will need to use his grappling smartly to get up when he is put on his back.

My Take:

I'll tke Cullum in a largely uninteresting fight, constisting of Cullum taking Tokoro down, using some GnP, and winning a decision. Cullum was never subbed, and I doubt Tokoro will do it.

Both come in at €1.87.

Yoshiro Maeda vs Hiroyuki 'Streetfight Bancho' Takaya
(63kg/139lbs)

Hiroyuki Takaya

10-6-1

+Very good, technical boxer
+Good sprawl

-No offensive sub game

-Sort of one dimensional

Yoshiro Maeda
24-6-2

+Vicious KO power, in all forms of striking
+Very versatile unpredictable striking
+Decent top control

-Not patient striker; spends too much time looking for one shot KO's.
-Huge defensive issues

Analysis:

Don't expect this to go to ground often; both are very good strikers that will likely produce an excellent show.

Maeda may be the more durable of the two, and survived a lot of punishment from Torres, and only being (T)KO'd by Charles Bennet and Daiki Hata, and beaten by doctor stoppage in the Torres fight.

Takaya has been (T)KO'd by Calvancante, Andre Amade, and Leonard Garcia, all hard hitters as well.

I don't think this will go to ground, neither are ground fighters, and will not have much advantage once there. Takaya has a great sprawl that Maeda won't get past, in any case.

My Take:

I'll take Takaya via unanimous decision and by exploiting Maeda's lack of head movement of defensiveness in general. Takaya enters at €2.60, while Maeda enters at €1.50.

Betting on Takaya highly advised.

Masakazu 'Ashikan Judokan' Imanari vs Bibiano 'The Flash' Fernandes
(63kg/139lbs)

Masakazu Imanari
16-6-1

+Best killer instinct in MMA
+Ferocious leg locks

-Bad striker
-Very one dimensional

Notable Wins:
Yoshiro Maeda (2005)
Mike Thomas Brown (2005)

Bibiano Fernandes
4-2-0

+No longer totally green to MMA
+Mundials super featherweight champion in 2006 and 2005
+Very good transition of grappling to MMA
+Very good at leeching to opponents

-Standup needs work
-Not a great wrestler

Analysis:

Bibiano has much better grappling credentials than Imanari, and that is crucial. Even in the standup I think he has a distinct advantage over his Japanese rival. How is Imanari going to win this?

His only hope is to try to get Fernandes in a leg lock, but I doubt that will happen with Fernandes' Jiu Jitsu. This is the worst matchup Imanari could have received.

My Take:

Bibiano takes this via grappling clinic. Even his weaknesses, wrestling and striking, are better that of Imanari.

Fernandes by unanimous decision. Even at €1.57, there is still value in betting of Bibiano here. Imanari comes in at €2.45

Norifumi 'KID' Yamamoto vs Joe Warren
(63kg/139lbs)

Norifumi Yamamoto
17-1-0-1

+World class wresting
+Very powerful hands
+Brutal ground and pound
+Excellent sub defense
+Brilliant kickboxing

-Coming after long layoff
-Not much submission skill - Guard can be passed
-Takedown defense not as good as credentials might suggest

Notable Wins:
Rani Yahya(2007)
Bibiano Fernades (2007)
Genki Sudo (2005)
Caol Uno (2005)

Joe Warren
1-0-0

+Probably the best wrestler in his weight class
+MMA debut out of the way

-Still incredibly inexperienced
-No submission skill
-Raw standup
-Completely untested

Notable Wins:
Chase Beebe (2009)

Analysis:

Warren's standup seemed decent enough against Beebe, but against KID, he won't get that far with it unless Yamamoto is fighting with a bust knee. If KID's healthy, this one is a great matchup for him. He should blitz Warren in the standup and even though Warren has better wresting, KID went to the tryouts for Beijing 2008, and Warren will hardly keep him down for long if he isn't injured.

My Take:

Warren better hope KID's knee is busted, because that's the only way he can take this one. Still, with KID at €1.15, and Warren at €5.50, that might just be worth it.

If KID is healthy, or anywhere near it, it'll be KID by violent KO.

Ronaldo 'Jacaré ' de Souza vs Jason 'Mayhem' Miller
(84kg/185lbs)

Ronaldo de Souza
9-2-0

+Open weight World Jiu Jitsu Champion in 2004 and 2005
+ADCC winner at 77-87kg in 2005. ADCC Openweight runner up in 2005.
+Relentless with takedowns
+Translated grappling very, very smoothly into MMA.

-Standup still an issue

Notable Wins:
Jason Miller (2008)

Jason Miller
22-6-0

+Excellent sub defense
+Very durable
+Decent grappler

-Wrestling needs improvement

Notable wins:
Robbie Lawler (2006)

Analysis:

Jacaré's combination of incredible jiu jitsu and relentless takedowns make a dangerous opponent for anyone, and this looks to be a favourable stylistic matchup for him. Mayhem didn't do much to stop the takedowns last time, and I don't see him doing much different in the rematch. Miller's advantage is in the standup, but not by much, and he didn't threaten Jacaré with it at all last time around.

My Take:

Bet on Jacaré, it's next to impossible to see Miller winning based on the last fight. Jacaré by sub, Round 1.

Even at Jacaré at €1.50 and Miller at €2.60, I stand by betting on Jacaré.

UFC 98:Evans vs Machida - Main Card

2009-05-14T09:03:00.044+01:00

Sean 'The Muscle Shark' Sherk v Frankie 'The Answer' Edgar
(155lbs/70kg)

Sean Sherk
33-3-1

+Practically unsubmittable
+Great wrestling
+Solid boxing

-Very short
-Rarely attempts submissions

Frankie Edgar
9-1-0

+Good wrestler
+Decent standup

-Doesn't use offensive submissions
-Very short

Analysis:

These are two very similar fighters. Both wrestlers, both with solid striking, both hardly attempt submissions.

That's probably why it was put together; their wrestling advantages will likely cancel, and they'll probably stand. Maynard may have controlled Edgar on the ground, but I don't think Sherk's will be good enough to do the same.

This could be a fight of the night contender here.

My Take:

I think Sherk will likely win, his handspeed making the difference, and since he's fighting someone his own height, the range issues he had with Penn won't exist.

But Sherk is at €1.31, and Edgar is at €3.50. Still prefer to go with Sherk.

Dan Miller vs Chael Sonnen
(185lbs/84kg)

Dan Miller
11-1-0

+Brazilian Jiu Jitsu brown belt
+Decent ground and pound

-Not stellar wrestler
-Standup very amateur

Chael Sonnen
21-10-1

+Two time national NCAA All American wrestling champion
+Good top control

-Bad ground game
-Bad gameplanner
-Never displayed much finishing ability

Notable wins:
Paulo Filho (2008)

Analysis:

This is a tough one. Sonnen's sub defense was never anything amazing, having been subbed by every major BJJ practitioner he ever faced (Maia, Filho, Horn twice, and even Forrest Griffin). The only exception to this was when he defeated a spaced out Filho...by decision.

Miller has problems with the standup, but Sonnen isn't a wonderful striker, so he should at least be able to pull guard even if he can't get a takedown. And Miller has a great opportunity to sub Sonnen on the mat.

My Take:

I'll take Miller by sub, Round 2. Not a huge difference in value between either of them. Miller is at €1.65, Sonnen at €1.80.

Xavier 'Professor X' Foupa-Pokam vs Drew 'The Massacre' McFedries
(185lbs/84kg)

Xavier Foupa-Pokam
20-9-0

+6'1, good reach
+Good use of savate/muay thai
+Hits hard

-Weak sprawl
-Ground skills lacking

Drew McFedries
7-5-0

+Solid boxing
+Good punching power

-Poor sprawl
-Clueless with submissions

Analysis:

Xavier Foupa-Pokam is a much more technical striker than Drew McFedries, who tends to operate by power punching, for the most part, and who got TKO'd by Patrick Coté in the second minute.

He always can land something huge and KO Xavier, but it would appear that Professor X uses cleaner striking and has enough reach to pick him apart.

Another thing worth noting is that, while Kang shut him down on the ground, Xavier's ground game has been noticable improving. Just another advantage in case it hits the ground.

My Take:

I expect Foupa-Pokam to get the (T)KO, probably early on, likely avoiding McFedries' power shots.

Xavier enters as heavy favourite at €1.50. McFedries is €2.60. Maybe there is some value in betting on McFedries, simply for the puncher's chance, but I'll still take Xavier.

Matt Hughes vs Matt 'The Terror' Serra
(170lbs/77kg)

Matt Hughes
42-7-0

+Very good wrestler
+Very good top control
+Good sub defence
+Decent ground and pound

-Bad standup
-Telegraphed takedown shots

Notable wins:
BJ Penn (2006)
Frank Trigg (2005, 2003)
Georges St-Pierre (2004)
Hayato Sakurai (2002)
Carlos Newton (2002)

Matt Serra
9-5-0

+Solid boxing
+Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt

-Not a stellar wreslter
-Very short

Notable wins:
Georges St-Pierre (2007)

Analysis:

Serra has good subs, but since 2002, he hasn't won by submission. This is bad news against Hughes, as he'll likely spend his time on his back. It will likely be a boring fight, with Hughes performing lay and pray, and the referee breaking it up with spouts of standup. If Hughes does stand with him, he will likely lose out, as Serra's boxing has looked better than any combos Hughes was ever able to put together.

Serra's key to victory will be utilising his guard to stop GnP with his guard, and try to stay away from takedowns. Hughes' will try to utilise takedowns and top position for a GnP stoppage or decision.

My Take:

Tough call. Hughes gott mauled in his last two fights, but those were to the #1 and #2 welterweights in the world. Serra, like Hughes, also received a mauling from St-Pierre.

Serra is at a surprising €3.50, compared to Hughes' €1.31.

I would expect this to be an extremely close bout, leaning slightly towards Hughes, but Serra makes much more sense to bet on.

Lyoto 'The Dragon' Machida v Rashad 'Sugar' Evans
(205lbs/93kg)

Lyoto Machida
14-0-0

+Incredible understanding of range
+Unique and varied strikes - front kick with the ball of the foot, jumping knees to the liver
+Mentally unshakable
+Excellent takedown defense
+Unorthadox takedowns and sweeps

-Killer instinct lacking
-Ground and pound could be improved

Notable wins:

Thiago Silva (2009)
Tito Ortiz (2008)
Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou (2008)
Rich Franklin (2003)

Rashad Evans
13-0-1

+Fast and brutal hooks
+Good wrestler
+Very good boxing movement
+Excellent training camp with great strategies

-Hasn't subbed anyone since his MMA debut
-Has been relying on nothing but boxing for the last two fights
-Has trouble keeping opponents down

Notable wins:
Forrest Griffin (2008)
Chuck Liddell (2008)

Analysis:

Evans boxing vs Machida's karate - a match of two counter strikers. Neither one of these two strike me as one to let booing interrupt their game plan. This could be a tentative affair at the beginning. I expect Machida to score more strikes at the beginning, and this is based on the fact that he isn't hit often, while Rashad was tagged by Griffin plenty.

This will lead Rashad into trouble, because if he starts chasing Machida, it looks bad for him. Every opponent Machida has had has fallen into the trap of chasing and being countered (like watching a Road Runner cartoon), and I think Rashad will have trouble with this.

But Evans isn't Thiago Silva, and his athleticism, power and handspeed are a threat to anyone.

My Take:

I'll take Machida by unanimous decision, and I could see him getting a TKO in the later rounds. Evans has the best gameplanners there are at Greg Jackson's, but I don't think they can solve this puzzle.

Machida is heavy favourite, Rashad comes in at €2.90, Machida at €1.40. But betting against Ryu right now looks like a waste of money.

UFC 97: Redemption - Main Card

2009-04-04T12:31:00.000+01:00

Krzysztof 'The Polish Experiment' Soszynski vs Brian 'All American' Stann

(205lbs/93kg)

Krzysztof Soszynski
16-8-1

+Hard hitter
+Wrestling background

-Pretty much just a slugger and brawler standing

-Mediocre sub game

Brian Stann

6-1-0

+ Plenty of punching force
+Technical striker

-Never subbed any opponent
-Still untested in many areas

Analysis:

Odds are this is going to be a backyard brawl, two fighters going toe to toe, and seeing who falls first.

Hard to pick, but Stann looks like a more technical fighter, but Soszynski always has the wrestling advantage, but I doubt it will come into play until at least Round 2. Stann is just as big a puncher as Soszynski and has won his first six fights by (T)KO before losing to Cantwell by TKO.

Both have decent chins, so I could see this going to decision, and getting Fight of the Night in the process.

My Take:

I'd lean slightly towards Stann, and with him as the underdog at €2.25, I say back him. Soszynski enters at €1.65.

Luiz 'Banha' Cane vs Steve 'The Robot' Cantwell
(205lbs/93kg)

Luiz Cane
9-1-0

+Has powerful and varied strikes
+Can take storms of punishment
+Black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu

-Toe to toe style of striking can lead to trouble
-Has trouble establishing range

Steve Cantwell
7-1-0

+Good counter striker
+Good at avoiding damage
+Killer instinct
+Brown belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu

-Bad takedowns
-Hasn't evolved his standup beyond boxing

Analysis:

Cantwell appears to have clean and technical striking, strong on fundamentals, but is that enough against Luiz Arthur Cane? Cane demonstrated against Sokoudjou that he can take every bit as much as he give, so Cantwell will have his work cut out for him.

But while Cane's fight against Sokoudjou told us that he was durable, it also told us that he was not able to get comfortable against him until the Cameroonian had already landed some brutal shots.

I don't expect Cantwell to push the pace like Sokoudjou did, and I don't expect him to punish Cane as much either. Cantwell really only appears to have technical boxing in the way of standup.

There won't be much ground action, I'm guessing, as the submission skills of these two will likely cancel out.

My Take:

Cane will probably win by being all around better, but at €1.29, he is hardly worth it, while Cantwell comes in at about €3.60. If I was betting, I'd have to go against my instincts and hope for an upset by Cantwell.

Cheick Kongo vs Antoni Hardonk

(265lbs/120kg)

Cheick Kongo

13-4-1

+Much improved sprawl and takedowns

+Good ground and pound

+Good low and mid kicks

-Questionable heart

-Poor submission game

-Commonly hits opponents with groin attacks

Notable wins:

Mirko 'Cro Cop' Filipovic

Antoni Hardonk

8-4-0

+Monstrous low kicks
+Good chin
+Good recovery time

-Head movement lacking -Has tendency to brawl, leading to getting dropped
-Ground game lacking
-Wrestling sub par

Analysis:

Kongo has an advantage here that he normally does not: he can outwrestle Hardonk. This will happen I think if Hardonk gets the better of the standup.

Round 1 will certainly be a standup affair, and I see Hardonk having trouble. His brilliant low kicks aside, he isn't what I'd call a world class striker. World class strikers don't get dropped by Eddie Sanchez.

Kongo got tagged bad by Heath Herring at the start of the fight, and if Handonk can recreate this he could finish him - let's not forget Kongo tapped to Yvel's strikes - but I would see him treating Hardonk's standup game with more respect. He'll probably use his range to keep at bay.

My Take

Expect Kongo to pull out a decision, either through wrestling Hardonk to the ground and maintaining top position, or by beating him on the feet. Kongo is at €1.29, so there is absolutely no reason to bet on him, especially with Hardonk at €3.75.

Chuck 'The Iceman' Liddell vs Maurico 'Shogun' Rua (205lbs/93kg)

Chuck Liddell
21-6-0

+Next to impossible to take down
+Unorthadox and unexpected strikes
+Very good counter striker

-Leaves hands dangerously low
-Does not check kicks
-Not good coming forward
-Never showed a submission game

Notable wins:

Wanderlei Silva (2008)
Tito Ortiz x2 (2006, 2004)
Renato 'Babalu' Sobral x2 (2006, 2003)
Randy Couture x2 (2006, 2005)
Alistar Overeem (2003)
Vitor Belfort (2002)
Murilo Bustamante (2001)
Kevin Randleman (2001)
Jeff Monson (2000)

Mauricio Rua
17-3-0

+Brazilian jiu jitsu black belt
+Good low kicks
+Powerful strikes
+Good Muay Thai clinch

-Leaves hands low
-Horrible cardio
-No stomps or soccer kicks available to him

Notable wins:

Alistair Overeem x2 (2007, 2005)
Ricardo Arona (2005)
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (2005)
Quinton Jackson(2005)

Analysis:

Regrding who looked better in their last respective bouts, it would be a pretty close thing, as neither looked anwhere near impressive.

With Liddell not landing anything against Evans before getting brutally KO'd, and with Rua looking horrible and completly burnt out after one round with 44 year old Coleman who hadn't won a fight since 2006, this bout hardly has the same appeal as it would have had three years ago.

Some say Rua is tailor made for Liddell to KO, since he will probably be able to repel any takedown attempts (and if that fails he can stand back up) and considering Rua leaves his hands low and his cardio was almost non-existent in his last bout, this would seem to enforce their opinions.

But this is all relying on Liddell's KO power, something he was always famous for. But after seeing him go toe to toe with Wanderlei Silva for 15 minutes and fail to knock him down once, I'm not sure it's still there - Wanderlei Silva has been KO'd by Rampage, Henderson and Cro Cop in his last five fights.

As Keith Jardine showed, Liddell does not check low kicks. This could be bad news against Rua, especiallly if he employs a stick and move strategy. But of course, this relies on Rua improving his cardio. If he fails to do this, he will be a stationary target and it doesn't take much to KO a gassed opponent.

But if he can get back to full fitness, we could see him pulling a Frank Mir-like comeback; who would bet on Brandon Vera KO'ing Mir today?

My Take:

I would prefer to bet on Shogun, he comes in at €2.60, compared to Liddell's €1.50.

Liddell is 39, and has been in obvious decline. Shogun cannot get worse than is last performances against Coleman and Griffin. Shogun by TKO, Round 2.

Anderson 'The Spider' Silva vs Thales Leites (185lbs/84kg)

Anderson Silva
23-4-0

+Superb handsped
+Versatile and unpredictable striker
+Great chin
+Vicious Muay Thai clinch
+Good defensive guard
+ Brazilian jiu jitsu black belt

-Offensive wrestling hardly used
-Never exhibited brilliant ground and pound

Notable wins:

Dan Henderson (2008)
Rich Franklin x2 (2007, 2006)
Nate Marquardt (2007)
Travis Lutter (2007)

Thales Leites
14-1-0

+Brazilian jiu jitsu blackbelt
+Transition game very good

-Standup very basic
-Ground and pound average

Analysis:

Leites is a Jiu Jitsu black belt but hasn't won ADCC or Mundials titles, so I don't think his ground game is going to be good enough to trouble Anderson Silva, who trains with Jacaré and Galvao, and who has a black belt himself under the Nogueiras.

Add to this that Leites doesn't have awesome takedowns or GnP, and I'm pretty confident saying that he's for in a world of hurt. People say Silva's takedown defense is poor, but Dan Henderson wasn't exactly taking him down at will, and every time he did, his guard was good enough to prevent major damage.

On the feet there will be only one victor. Anderson has dispatched of strikers like Franklin and Henderson with ease when they stood, and Leites looks very rudimentary standing.

My Take:

Silva by KO, Round 1, probably in the first few minutes. But there isn't really any value in betting on someone €1.16, but at the same time, even at €5.25, is Leites worth a shot? I would need Serra-GSP odds before I'd back Leites here.

DREAM.8 - The Welterweight Grand Prix + More

2009-03-10T18:13:00.001Z

DREAM.8 - The Welterweight Grand Prix + More

Sergei Kharitonov vs Jeff 'The Snowman' Monson
(93+kg/205+lbs)

Jeff Monson
28-8-0

+ADCC winner at 99+kg in 2005
+Can take punishment

+Excellent submission defence

-Suffers from terrible reach disadvantage, being 5'9 tall
-Lacking offensive striking
-Many ADCC wins came via points; offensive sub game not as great as record might imply
-38 years old
-Takedowns nothing to write home about

Sergei Kharitonov
16-3-0

+Olympic quality boxer; won a silver medal with Tajikistan's team in the 2003 Central Asian Games
+Extensive sambo background
+Never subbed, not against Nogueira, and not against Werdum
+Big hitter

-Fought once in 2008
-Not the most versatile striker

Notable wins

Alistair Overeem (2007)
Fabricio Werdum (2005)

Analysis:

Jeff Monson is a stocky former ADCC winner who relies on winning by points in both grappling and MMA. Sergei Kharitonov is an olympic calibre boxer who won a silver medal for Tajikistan in the 2003 Central Asian Games, has an extensive sambo background, has never been subbed, and has KO wins over Alistair Overeem and Pedro Rizzo.

Kharitonov's most recent win was over an unranked Jimmy Ambriz, and made him tap with kidney punches, and his power clearly hasn't left him. This spells trouble for Monson, who is five foot nine, while Kharitonov stands at six foot four, and given that Monson's takedowns were stuffed by Tim Sylvia for the majority of the fight, I don't see this ending well for the American.

The only thing he can hope for is for Kharitonov to have been out for so long that his sub defense has suffered, but Monson hasn't exactly been improving either. This is Kharitonov's fight to lose.

My Take:

As already said, Kharitonov should steamroll Monson, but is it sure enough to risk betting with odds on Kharitonov being €1.42? I think it just might be. Monson is at €2.90, but I have a feeling that would be throwing money away

Hideo Tokoro vs Daiki 'DJ Taiki' Hata
(63kg/139lbs)

Hideo Tokoro
21-15-1

+Competent striker, despite only one KO
+Very versatile and unpredictable strikes
+Very capable off back
+Dangerous ground and pound

-Not much of a sprawl

-Striking sometimes more flashy than useful

Daiki Hata
10-5-3

+Marvellous takedown defense

+Skilled boxing; keeps range well and counters very powerfully

-One dimensional striker
-Doesn't check low kicks

Analysis:

This is a pretty close one, that will probably be a standing war at the start, since Tokoro will be hard pressed to get past Hata's sprawl, but that is not a huge setback, since Tokoro has very good striking to set up his grappling with knockdowns.

But I think I would give a slight striking advantage to Hata, even if it is one dimensional, he possesses a lot of power, and appears to have the greater chin. He makes great use of range and I see him countering Tokoro for the majority of the fight.

My Take:

The difficulty in picking this fight is reflected in the betting odds, with Tokoro at €1.83 and Hata at €1.91. Hata is at slightly better value, and I think he's a better bet and would expect him to win by decision.

John 'The Natural' Alessio vs Andre Galvao
(76kg/168lbs)

Andre Galvao
2-0-0

+World class Jiu Jitsu; Mundials winner at 85kg in 2008, and 79kg in 2005
+Has had a smooth start, with two submission wins

-Still very inexperienced; hasn't really been hit yet
-Bad standup
-Sluggish takedowns

John Alessio
24-12-0

+Relentless with takedowns
+Good wrestling, despite no credentials of note

-Lax striker without handspeed

Analysis:

Alessio will not submit Galvao, two time Mundials winner and training partner of Jacaré, so his options are more limited than usual.
This is a fight where one of Alessio's most valuable traits, which is his doggedness to get a takedowns, won't help him that much. He isn't a GnP machine, so I doubt Galvao will be averse to being on his back, and if Alessio is smart, I don't think he'll want to put him there.

But will his standup be good enough to take out Galvao?

Like most pure submission artists, Galvao's GnP is poor, but with submission skills like his, it probably won't be too much of a difference until he meets someone with crazy sub defense.

I think Alessio better hope that Galvao has glass jaw, because I don't see this staying off the mat for long, and I dont trust Alessio's sub defense to be good enough to fend him off - half of his losses have come by submission.

Only one of Alessio's last eight wins have come by (T)KO, and was never really a dangerous striker.

My Take:

Unless Galvao turtles up the first time he's hit, I don't see this ending well for Alessio. Galvao is €1.71 and Alessio is €2.10, but I still think Galvao is a better bet. Expect Galvao to use his ground game to tie up Alessio, and finish. Galvao by sub, Round 1.

Marius Zaromskis vs Seichi Ikemoto
(76kg/168lbs)

Marius Zaromskis
8-2-0

+Crackling kicks at all levels and directions
+Knows how to set up his shots strategically

+Powerful punches in bunches
+Good jumping knees

-Poor takedowns

-Not much offensive subs. Only submission win was over a 0-0-0 Swierkosz

Seichi Ikemoto
18-14-5

+Versatile striking
+Good low, mid, and high kicks

-Doesn't know many escapes when put into disadvantageous grappling positions
-Flatfooted standup
-Terrible submission game
-Mediocre sprawl

Analysis

Marius Zaromskis is not one of the most well known fighters in the world, but fans of Cage Rage will recognise him as a dangerous and versatile striker, with seven of his eight wins being by (T)KO, utilising high kicks, spinning back kicks, punches and flying knees in the process.

Ikemoto is a striker, but doesn't have great movement and has an abysmal record of 18-14-5, but nonetheless obtained his spot in the GP by TKOing Hidetaka Monma at DEEP 40.

Zaromskis hasn't been fighting the upper echelon of welterweights, but it's not hard to see the skills he possesses, and he's impressed me much more than Ikemoto has in any of his bouts - he hits harder, faster, and follows up.

To Ikemoto's credit, only two of his fourteen losses have come by T(KO), but if Eddie Alvarez can do it, Zaromskis certainly can. I dont think submissions will come into play here; neither one of these two is a submission specialist, so I think this stays standing, at least until someone gets knocked down and pounded out, and this will benefit Zaromskis greatly.

My Take

I expect Zaromskis to be the Mousasi or Alvarez of this tournament, an unknown who bursts onto the MMA scene.So I expect him to tear Ikemoto apart. I think a grappler or wrestler is needed to take out Zaromskis, because fom what I've seen, he may be the best striker in the Welterweight GP.

Zaromskis by TKO Round 1, and even being €1.65, that's not such a bad bet

Yuya Shirai vs Jason High
(76kg/168lbs)

Yuya Shirai
15-7-0

+Very frustrating clinch game that ties up opponents successfully
+Quick transitions and submissions
+Good judo based takedowns from clinch

-Is a stationary target for a fast striker
-Sprawl needs improvement
-Very few submissions off back

Jason High
6-1-0

+Solid wrestling background
+High level of strength
+Has shown power and willingless to throw

-Striking very amateur and unrefined
-Not a tremendous amount of experience

Analysis:

With 8 of Shirai's 15 wins coming by decision, I doubt he'll finish High.

If he does defeat High, it will probably be a decision win, likely using his top game to keep High pinned, and avoiding submissions - Shirai hasn't been subbed yet - and possibly looking for submissions of his own in between.

High is an athletic wrestler and appears to have some (unrefined) power in his hands and some of his wins have come by sub, but I think his best chance of winning is putting Shirai on his back and using GnP to win.

My Take:

I think High will probably win by GnP TKO, but with his odds at €1.67, and with Shirai's at €2.20, betting on Shirai is likely smarter.

Shinya 'Tobikan Judokan' Aoki vs Hayato 'Mach' Sakurai
(76kg/168lbs)

Shinya Aoki
20-3-0-1

+Excellent grappling +Can always get a fight to the ground, even through pulling guard in midair
+Very effective rubber guard that is difficult to work ground and pound against
+Both top and bottom game extremely effective

-Bad Striking
-Poor ground and pound

Notable wins

Joachim Hansen (2006)
Gesias Calvancante (2008)
Eddie Alvarez (2008)
Caol Uno (2008)

Hayato Sakurai
34-8-2

+Extremely varied striking, utilises variety of kickboxing, boxing and Thai boxing technique.
+Potent ground and pound
+Very difficult to submit; ADCC Absolute division runner up in 1999

-Leaves hands too low and doesn't have the head movement and footwork to make it work
-Hasn't subbed an opponent since 2004

Notable wins

Joachim Hansen (2005)
Shinya Aoki (2005)
Frank Trigg (2000)

Analysis:

With their last fight being a close run affair, one would expect this to be more of the same; that is, Sakurai pitting his considerable sub defense against Aoki's formidable submission skill.

Sakurai's striking is good, but I wouldn't put it above Calvancante's or Alvarez', two fighters in Aoki's win list, but his sub defense is going to make him much less afraid to deliver GnP if Aoki pulls flying guard or starts buttscooting across the ring.

A very important factor here is the age difference. With Sakurai at 33 years old and having had 44 professional fights, he looks as though his best days are past him. Aoki is, on the other hand, 25 years old, and only seems to be reaching his peak right now.

The standup portion of this one will probably be minimum, as it tends to be in every one of Aoki's bouts, and I think it will probably look a lot like the last one, whoever wins. I don't expect a finish, despite both men having been finished before in 2008.

Some cite the Hansen fight as reason why Aoki cannot take punishment without folding, he fought through some severe injuries during the second Calvancante fight, including a severely bruised rib and torn cartilage in his costal area.

My take:

Sakurai has some very good GnP but I don't think he'll be able to recreate what Hansen did last summer - that was after 15 minutes of grappling with Uno, and Aoki was not fresh before he was TKO'd by a very strong left.

I expect this to look something like the Calvancante fight, with Aoki using sub attempt after sub attempt to get a decision win - him being pushed by FEG as the new poster fighter of DREAM won't hurt him either

Aoki comes in at €1.53, while Sakurai comes in at €2.55, so there isn't a good enough reason to bet on Aoki, and it would probably be more reasonable to bet on Sakurai.

DREAM.7

2009-03-02T18:40:00.000Z

DREAM.7 Featherweight Grand Prix 1st Round

Takafumi Otsuka vs Bibiano 'the Flash' Fernandes
(63kg/139lbs)

Takafumi Otsuka 8-3-1

+Fast and versatile striking
+Mixes up takedowns with striking fluidly
+Has not been submitted since his MMA debut
+Fast ground and pound
+Solid wrestling

-No offensive submissions
-Has a tendency to be passive in an opponents guard

Bibiano Fernandes 3-2-0

+Has had a baptism of fire, with Norifumi 'KID' Yamamoto as his 2nd fight, and Urijah Faber as his 3rd.
+Has won Mundials black belt super featherweight title in 2006 and 2005, among other impressive grappling credentials.
+Excellent transition of grappling to MMA
+Leeches to opponents very effectively

-Flatfooted standup
-Takedown attempts are somewhat telegraphed

Analysis:

Bibiano Fernandes, 3-2-0. An underwhelming record, but since those two who defeated him were Norifumi 'KID' Yamamoto and Urijah Faber, in his 2nd and 3rd fights respectively, his losses are hardly much detriment. With outstanding achievements in jiu jitsu, and dogged determination to bring his opponents to the ground, the Brazilian is the sleeper of the grand prix for many.

He'll need that against Otsuka, who has very solid wrestling and has not been subbed since his professional debut. Otsuka has good stiking and GnP, which he'll probably need to win this fight, because Fernandes will get this fight to the ground some way or another, so Otsuka's sub defense is vital.

Fernandes is pretty durable, the TKO loss to Faber beind due to an elbow, and that's a very awkward thing for an opponwent to deal with, especially when you're guaranteed that this fight will end up going to ground - he took down KID, who almost got to wrestle in the Beijing 2008 Olympics - so it's hard to see Otsuka winning this by anything other than decision.

My Take:

Fernandes all the way, I don't see Otsuka finishing him and I don't see him avoiding submissions for 15 minutes, simple as that.

But with Fernandes' odds being €1.47, and Otsuka's at €2.75, it might be smarter to take Otsuka.

Fernandes by sub, Round 1.

Chase 'The Rage' Beebe vs Joe Warren
(63kg/139lbs)

Chase Beebe
12-3-0

+Very Knowledgable with subs
+Some of the best sub defense around
+F
our time Illinois State Champion wrestler

-Not known for submission ability off back
-Not an outstanding striker

Notable wins:

Rani Yahya

Joe Warren
0-0-0

+2006 world champion wrestler
+Winner of the world team trials in 2007
+Was thought have potential for a medal in 2008 Olympics

-MMA debut
-Hardly enough time to develop good standup
-Very little time to develop good submission defence

Analysis:

In modern MMA, well roundedness has versatility in all levels of fighting has been revealed to be crucial, so here's an olympic calibre wrestler, possibly the best wrestler in his weight class around right now, presenting the same old question: Can a one dimension specialist find true success in MMA today?

If Warren wants to get Beebe down, odds are Beebe will be on his back, state wrestler or not, and if Warren doesn't want to go to ground, odds are that's not going to be too much of a problem either.

But Warren has had very little time to prepare for MMA, so while he can dictate where the fight goes, what on earth is he going to do when it gets where he wants it? Maybe he fancies himself a better striker than Beebe and will try to outpoint him or even KO him, but I see him resorting to go with his instincts and put Beebe on his back.

Many of Beebe's subs come from ground and pound - which won't be a factor against Warren unless he knocks him down with a strike - but his sub skill off his back will likely be more than
enough to get a hold of something while he's down there. Let's not forget, he avoided submission from Rani Yahya, who won the 66kg division of ADCC in 2007, so his submission knowledge will be key.

My Take:

I fully expect Warren to take Beebe down, and I fully expect Beebe to submit him. Warren has had very little time to prepare for MMA and I think this is going to look like Royce submitting UFC 1 fighters.

Beebe might not be a wizard off his back, but against someone as new as Warren he may as well be Roger Gracie. Beebe at €1.74 is not half bad.

Beebe by submission, Round 1.

Akiyo 'Wicky' Nishiura vs Abel Cullum
(63kg/139lbs)

Akiyo Nishiura 9-3-1

+Good use of angles +Versatile striking +Very fast and sudden striking
+Nimble and quick footwork
+Good at scrambling back to feet
+Never subbed

-Takedown defense is average at best
-Style of throwing power shots leaves him open for takedowns and counter-punching

Abel Cullum 13-2-0

+Fast and hard ground and pound
+Very good sweeps and transitions
+Extremely frustrating guard
+Uses stand up well

-Standup has power but is particularly explosive or fast and is wide open for counters.
-Takedowns aren't anything great

Analysis:
Another grappler versus striker matchup that is once again a close pick.

Abel Cullum has a very effective guard that allows him to take very little damage on bottom, and since Nishiura is really more of a stand up fighter, I don't think Cullum will be taking damage off his back, and if there's any real GnP, it will come from him - unless Nishiura knocks him half unconscious and goes to finish him off.

But Cullum will have a hard time taking down Wicky, who is very fast and who will no doubt be making him pay every time he attempts to take him down. Nishiura hits hard and fast, but Cullum is durable - never KO'd - and will probably find a way to get this fight down one way or another - but it will be more difficult in DREAM, as there is no cage to push the opponent against.

My Take:

I'm almost totally split between this. At the moment I'm leaning towards a Cullum sub, but in an hour I might say Nishiura KO.

Nishiura has a good scramble and has never been subbed, but Cullum is good at controlling people on the ground, so he should be able to hold on for a decision if he plays it smart, if not, Wicky takes this by KO.

With the lines at about €1.74 for Cullum and €2.05 for Nishiura, my gambling instincts are leaning towards Nishiura.

But betting lines aside, Cullum by sub Round 2.

Yoshiro Maeda vs Micah Miller
(63kgs/139lbs)

Yoshiro Maeda
23-6-2

+Powerful kicks and punches
+Very versatile striker

-Not strong on sub defense
-Standup can get wild

Micah Miller
10-2-0

+Dangerous guard
+Good at tying the opponent up from both top and bottom position

-Striking is not really dangerous
-Not very aggressive

Analysis:

This looks like a 50-50 fight, with Maeda being the considerably better striker, and Miller being the stronger grappler.

A quick glance of Maeda's record tells us how versatile his striking is, with (T)KOs via punches, punches and kicks, body kicks, flying knees, soccer kicks, flying knees and punches, and head kicks can all be found on his win list.

As for Miller, his favourite submission seems to be the triangle choke, which he has used 4 times in his 10 wins, followed by the rear
naked choke which he has used to win twice. Miller doesn't really pursue takedowns relentlessly like Jacaré or Palhares, and will spend time standing and I think this could be troube against Maeda, who, if given time, will set up his shots and tear you apart.

My take:

Hard to call, but I think Miller's defensive fighting style will give Maeda the KO,and at €1.67, I think this is reflected accurately. Miller is at €2.20, which would probably make more sense to any gamblers out there.

Maeda by KO, Round 1

Hiroyuki 'Street FightBancho' Takaya vs Kim Jong
Won
(63kg/139lbs)

Hiroyuki Takaya
9-6-1

+Solid boxing
+Decent hand speed

+Good sprawl
+Nice use of Muay Thai clinch

-Sub-par ground skills
-Has never won by submission

Kim Jong Won
0-0-0

+9th place in the 1996 Atlanta Olympics for Judo in the 60kg category
+15 months preparation for MMA debut
+Trains grappling at Team Yoon and spars with K.MAX, runner up in the K-1 World MAX 2008 Asia tournament

-Even with training, striking will likely be weak
-Judo skill may not transfer to MMA
-Gi grappling is different to no-gi grappling

Analysis:

This is a pretty bad matchup for Won, facing an opponent with a solid sprawl and boxing, this could be very interesting.

Having finished 9th in the Atlanta Olympics a bit more than 12 years ago, one would think that Won's takedowns/throws would be top notch, and certainly good enough to get past Takaya's sprawl. If they clinch, Takaya will likely end up going for a ride, gi or no gi.

If Won puts him down, can he finish him? I'd say yes, his grappling partner Yoon Dong Sik was certainly able to finish his fair share of opponents, despite his dismal 4-6-0 record.

Of course, in order to get to a clinch, he may have to eat some strikes on the way, and that can be a rude enough awakening to some making their professional MMA debut, especially to those
who did not come from a striking background.
Hiroyuki will need to keep his distance and pick his shots carefully and probably use the Muay Thai clinch sparingly if at all.

My Take:

I think that this is going to be a much closer fight than people think; if Won can get past the striking of Hiroyuki, I think his judo skills will be enough to win him this fight, and with a €2.60 price, he's a solid bet.

Won by unanimous decision.

Masakazu 'Ashikan Judan' Imanari vs Atsushi Yamamoto
(63kg/139lbs)

Masakazu Imanari
15-6-1

+Ferocious leg locks
+Best killer instinct in MMA

-One dimensional
-Bad striking

Notable wins:

Mike Thomas Brown
Yoshiro Maeda

Atsushi Yamamoto
12-5-1

+Good wrestling
+Good top control

-Highly passive in an opponents guard
-Nine of his twelve wins have been by decision, including last five
-No real outstanding skills

Analysis:

While Imanari may not have the most out there, his leglocks are legendary, as is his willingness to finish them. Like Shinya Aoki, Imanari can fight extremely effectively off his back, and will commonly pull guard to try and seize an ankle or knee, or sometimes just work for a sweep.

This presents an interesting problem to Atsushi, as to whether he will try to keep it standing or use his wrestling to try and force the decision, or more unlikely TKO. My guess is he'll probably
try to feel out Imanari in the feet, but won't be too averse to going down if Imanari pulls guard.

My Take:

I consider this to be a gimme fight for Imanari; I don't think Atsushi will finish him, and I don't think he'll be able to avoid the ground for too long. Imanari is €1.54 and for good reason; expect him to make another man scream on Sunday.

Imanari by sub, Round 1.