The Cricket Nation

Songs in the new year: a follow up to Tendulkar in a losing cause

noreply@blogger.com (12th man) — Wed, 05 Jan 2011 01:40:00 +0000

I got a question (Tendulkar’s performance against top teams) in response to my last post. Also the final test vs SA has unfolded nicely since so a quick short follow up. I filtered the stats in the previous post to reflect games against the top 4 teams segmented by wins and losses. Data is for games where Sehwag, Laxman, Dravid, Tendulkar & Dhoni have all played in (Ganguly & Gambhir show up where relevant). Small data set with under 15 tests but most fair to benchmark equally

Here’s a couple of takeaways.

1. I cant do it alone!!!

Does Tendu’s performance hold up against top teams? .

Batting Averages vs Eng/Aus/SL/SA
	Won	Lost
Tendulkar	53	60
Dravid	32	23
Laxman	55	34
Ganguly	43	13
Sehwag	64	35
Gambhir	64	22
Dhoni	43	40

The stats are fascinating. Actually Tendulkar plays better when India loses – its just that the rest of the players (except Dhoni) dont play well at all !!!! So No, its not that Tendulkar plays well only in a losing cause but that everybody else crumbles . (particularly our openers) and he cant make up for all of them.

2. The finish line belongs to VVS Laxman. Period!!!!

My last post ended with “let’s wait for the next test and the world cup to seal the debate” and here's Tendulkar doing his part to seal the debate today!!. But if he fails in the 2nd innings , i can see the critics rise again (never mind that he scored 40% of our first innings runs to guide us to a psychological lead against very hostile bowling). Perhaps Sehwag will hit a flash 70 (high time) and maybe Laxman will guide us home (again) in the 2nd innings and then the Tendulkar bashing will start. So i compared performances across 1st innings the 2nd innings and again – very interesting insight. Its not that Tendulkar performs poorly – he’s pretty consistent; just that Laxman OWNS the end game (and Dravid is a disaster).

Averages against Eng/Aus/SL/SA
Bat average	Ist Inn	2nd Inn
Gambhir	65	58
Sehwag	64	43
Tendulkar	58	57
Dravid	49	17
Laxman	38	72
Ganguly	37	25
Dhoni	37	34

So there you have it – there’s probably many other ways to slice the data (only away wins but the pool will be small) or get other conclusions (we win when the openers fire) but this is to answer the specific Tendulkar rants. One interesting tidbit below from my slicing the data:

For matches won against the top 4 teams in away games when all these batsmen have played: Laxman averages 71 (and 117 if its only 2nd innings) which is 2X times the next best Indian batsman (and 4X for the 2nd innings only). Only 4 test but interesting nonetheless!!

ps: some of these stats show Dravid in a poor light which is worrying as he is also an old time favorite, so perhaps the topic of another post.

This one’s for Tendulkar’s misguided naysayers

noreply@blogger.com (12th man) — Thu, 30 Dec 2010 09:41:00 +0000

So i have a long running argument (part fun, part real) with an old friend. Does Tendulkar perform only in losing causes? And since he provoked me again after the Durban win – i felt compelled to respond long and hard to that 'innocuous' question of how Tendulkar fared in the Durban test :-)

So my first non IPL post on this blog is for you Mr Bajaj!!!

Let me answer the question though. Yes he failed (13 and 6) in this test match. Arguably so did everyone across both teams except Laxman. At least he top scored in the previous game in a losing cause – but more on that below. However the fact is he didn’t do well in Durban. And is not as good with the tail as Laxman is . And perhaps is a better first innings player than 2nd Innings (like most people in the world).

That said, here are some facts.

1. Tendulkar scores only in losing causes: i looked at the averages of our top 7 batsmen across their career, only in matches India won and matches India won since Jan 2008. I think the story is clear (and if i add his losing cause scores then... , well never mind).

Averages	Career	All matches won	Matches won since 2008
sehwag	54	57	68
gambhir	50	49	66
dravid	52	65	44
tendu	56	67	76
laxman	47	54	57
ganguly	42	46	37
dhoni	40	47	58

2. Tendulkar has scored 17.5% of total runs scored by India since Jan 2008. Use whatever ratios you want but its very disproportionate.

3. Next argument – his average is bolstered by centuries vs Bangladesh. First, I'll remind you that all the batsmen had the same opportunity. But nevertheless , if i take out the Bangladesh wins from the above table then his average falls to 73 from 76. No big deal.

4. Finally – does he play a leading role in our wins – beyond the averages?: Some judgment here but in the 16 tests that he played in since 2008 where India won, he has played a leading role in at least 9 of those games. i defined leading role as (i) either been man of the (3 times) or (ii) scored a century (7 times) or (iii) scored 20% of India's runs (7 times). Again 9/16 so I wont do the math.

Lets wait for the next game and the world cup to seal the debate!!!

I’ll stop here but you get the point as this picture is better than my 1810 words :-)

They are defending champions you know …

noreply@blogger.com (12th man) — Mon, 19 Apr 2010 07:44:00 +0000

Well , i got almost all my predictions wrong yesterday (and i say almost only ‘cos the KKR v MI match is not yet done and i could end up being fully wrong).
Chennai beat Punjab in a masterclass by Dhoni – but it really could have gone either way. Guess that ends Irfan’s comeback hopes as the India skipper will not have much faith. Perhaps he and Yusuf (who is now on thin ice i think if he flops a couple more times) can practice in their backyard to get back into form. In any case it was close and Punjab batted well so i don’t feel so bad about the prediction.
However, i was very sure that DD will come together to beat Deccan easily – with the top order firing hard. Well that wasn’t to be as they all crumbled. In fact, Nehra played the scoop shot (of sorts) better than Dilshan (who is the leading contender for the worst performer of IPL 3) has in the whole tournament. And as i mentioned to Aloke earlier in the day, perhaps Gambhir should have given Sehwag this advice – “pretend it’s a Test match”
Well in any case Deccan it is. Despite Gilchrist not performing (maybe a singled handed win in one of the next 2 games is on the cards ?) the team really brought it home. The low total was something that Delhi should really have got but then as Symonds said in the break - ‘ well its not a high score but we have the runs on the board and they still need to get them”. The unfathomable decision to not play Vaas in the last few games was brought to the fore with his super performance today (he still has the best economy rate in the team) and Rohit Sharma took some stunning catches. But really the three musketeers of Symonds , Suman and Sharma with a more than able D’Artagnan in Ojha have been key to their revival. With Vaas back, Harmeet delivering in crunch moments and the skipper due for a score they might just go all the way. Its a reasonable mix of experience and youth as Aneesh Vijaykar pointed out and boast the best bowler of the tournament (and 3 others with a average of less than 7.5) and a batting line up that is sharing the load equally. Somehow i just didn’t believe the old legs had it in them (and perhaps still dont) – then again, maybe i shouldn’t have been so skeptical.

They are after all the defending champs.

ps: Interesting data.
KKR vs Mumbai. A bit of a ‘who cares’ . A rudimentary excel table revealed that KKR breaks even at about 150 runs. ie i think if they score 150 runs they need needs to win by about 150 runs. If they score less than 150 it doesn’t matter. If they are chasing a score of about 150 they need to win by about 17 overs. I may be off by a few overs or runs but you get the idea – should be a fun match.

May the best team win IPL 2010 - really?

noreply@blogger.com (12th man) — Sun, 18 Apr 2010 08:22:00 +0000

So a quick post to check whether the best team will win the IPL 2010.
If you look at the points table it's very likely that the 4 semi finalists will have the following score.
1. Mumbai Indians - 20 or 22 points
2. Royal Challengers - 14 points
3. Delhi (or Deccan) - 16 points

4. Delhi, Chennai, Deccan or KKR - 14 points.

So given this , even if MI doesn't win a single game hereonin they will end the tournament with 20/22 points. Which means that if some other team wins the IPL 2010 , they will be at best having '20 points' or possibly even 18. If Deccan or Delhi win, they would have less overall points and would have lost to the Mumbai Indians twice in the league . (at least Chennai and Blore have beaten them once each).

So if Mumbai beat KKR in the last league, reach the semis where they face say Deccan or Delhi - its possible they will lose to a team that will have a total of 18 points vs 24 for Mumbai and a team that they have beaten 2/3 times in the tournament.

So does the best team really win or is it just about all on that day. Now you could argue that this is an age old debate on format and is the same for example in the ODI world cup etc . However the extensiveness of this tournament with 14 games in the league stage and each team playing every other team twice may mean that the IPL look at it differently from the ODI tournament (like some of the football leagues). However that is less exciting so maybe at least a best of 3 final instead of the sudden death. Kill the 3rd place match if needed and have the 3rd place be decided on points if time is a constraint.

I know we discussed this last year as well wrt whether the IPL format needs change but i do feel it will be a shame when Mumbai loses while having the best tournament by far. This will become even harder next year with 10 teams . Then again , maybe its like life - timing is everything and peaking too soon doesn't work (always do your best work in the quarter when your appraisal is due).

Any change in views now that we have 3 years of history?

KKR - semi finals or done?

noreply@blogger.com (12th man) — Sat, 17 Apr 2010 19:52:00 +0000

So a lot of debate around the scoring rate today after KKR perhaps took a little longer than they should have to win and ended at a NRR of

-0.456. The commentators also alluded to BRC’s losing by a big margin and how that may have been beneficial for KKR. So what’s going on and

what do KKR (and the rest) need to do? Did slow scoring really matter? Here’s a few facts and scenarios

1. First, the result of the Mumbai Bangalore match has no bearing whatsoever on KKR. Simply put, KKR cannot hope to make up the NRR gap vs BRC (they’d need to win against Mumbai by something like 90+ runs). They need to focus on results of Chennai , Delhi & Deccan. So lets take them one by one

2. Chennai: Will be through to the semi finals if they beat Punjab & will be out if they lose as they do need to get 14 points minimum. So a simple equation and totally in their hands. If they win , they will get to 14 points and have a NRR > current .27 which is enough and I’ll explain why.

3. Deccan vs Delhi: Whoever wins is through on points (16). The loser will only worsen their current run rate and it is below Chennai already so it doesn’t matter. So now consider the two outcomes in this clash

3(a) Deccan loses: In this case their NRR will range from –0.4 to –0.52 (ran scenarios with scores of 140-180 runs & losing by 10-40 runs. These assumptions should cover it but are not all inclusive) . This is the best news for KKR - they can win by about 10-20 runs against Mumbai & make it.

3(b) Deccan wins: Practically curtains for KKR because Delhi’s NRR will be in the range of +0.01 to –0.1 (assuming Deccan win by 10-40 runs on scores of 140-180). My best case scenario for KKR wherein they score 180 runs & beat Mumbai by about 50 runs gives them a NRR is about –0.23.

What if KKR had scored much faster today vs Rajasthan? Well if they had done it in 13 overs (cant imagine faster) & beat Mumbai Indians next by 50 runs their NRR would still be about –0.15 (lower than the Delhi Daredevils). Of course scoring faster wouldn’t hurt (and some of my calculations are simplistic and it may get close) but i don’t think it would have made a difference. So what then of the semi-final line up and KKR chances?

For KKR to go through

1. Delhi needs to beat Deccan & Punjab needs to beat Chennai. 2. KKR needs to beat Mumbai by about 20+ runs

For the rest : (a) Chennai beats Punjab and they are through else out (b) Winner of Delhi vs Deccan is through (c) If Chennai lose then Delhi and Deccan can both make it through if Deccan beats Delhi or if KKR lose to Mumbai.

So what do i think? Delhi will beat Deccan, KKR will beat Mumbai and Chennai will lose to Punjab.

Modi, Tharoor & now Gambhir lets it rip!!!

noreply@blogger.com (Bay Area Musings) — Fri, 16 Apr 2010 07:34:00 +0000

So its been an eventful week. Lalit Modi is becoming the new Dawood of Indian cricket. Spewing lines without a care in the world. He's taking on another irresponsible twitterrati - Shashi Tharoor.
The IPL , for all its entertainment, is taking a scary turn and i wouldnt be surprised if Modi gets cut down to size soon.

In a cricketing context , and much more justifiably, Gambhir let his words do the talking after his bat had done the scoring (and more importantly his legs had done the running without getting him out). Here's a scathing indictment of the 'top order'.

GG: "The top order should have been more responsible, it is all about finishing the job.. hope they are more responsible in the next game. We never thought of run rate etc., we were only looking at two points. NEVER told anyone in the dressing room to finish it quickly". If you listened to him live , he said a few more things which i don't remember exactly but basically along the lines of 'you cant just get by by claiming that thats the way you play".

So the question is this - Who was his ire directed at?.
1. David Warner: Maybe but he really hasnt been that comfortable against spin and didnt look like he was guilty of throwing away his wicket. Plus he's had some scores.
2. Dilshan: Well, how much can you blame a guy who deflects it on to his stumps on the 2nd ball he faces. And how much can you kick a man when he's down (for surely Dilshan cant sink any lower in this IPL)
3. Kartik: Yes, that was a silly stroke - but technically he's more middle order than top order. That leaves us with just...
4. Sehwag: Really?? Gambhir was taking on his friend, mentor, supporter (Sehwag stepped down from captaincy to allow Gambhir a chance) & India and Delhi mate?? He probably deserves it but i'd be very impressed if it was directed at Sehwag. Respect for GG grows.

What do you think?

The home stretch – Who’s going all the way now??

noreply@blogger.com (12th man) — Thu, 15 Apr 2010 06:52:00 +0000

So a month ago when all the madness began, i had predicted the semi – finalists for IPL 2010 AS Mumbai, Delhi, Bangalore and Kolkatta. So how’s that going and more importantly who do you think is going to make it to the final? At this stage its still really anybody’s game with different odds but except Punjab everyone can still make it.

1. My prediction and how it stacks:

a) Mumbai is in. At least i got one right. whew :-)

b) Bangalore: There’s a good chance that they will make it (even if they lose their last game). They could still be edged out though if they lose big to Mumbai and if Deccan beats Delhi and Punjab , Delhi beats Chennai by a big margin and Chennai beat Punjab by a big margin. But low odds of that happening & they will probably beat Mumbai to get there.

c) Delhi: Very sticky situation. Need to beat both Chennai and Deccan to be safe & that’s going to be far from easy given their recent performances. They can get by with one win though. I think if they had to beat one team they need to beat Deccan. Because even if they beat Chennai , Chennai can beat Punjab by a hefty margin and get ahead and if Deccan wins both their games it will be very close. Whereas if they beat Deccan , Deccan will need to beat Punjab by 50+ runs to oust Delhi AND KKR will need to win both their games with good margins to top Delhi. So while tomorrow’s game with Chennai is important its not as big as the one with Deccan. I’m optimistic still.

d) Kolkata: Dada’s outbursts haven’t helped the team change their trajectory. And its looking very tough. They need to beat the leader (Mumbai who will want to keep the momentum) and Rajasthan (who will want to end with some magic even if they don’t make it). And they have to win big. And they have to hope that Delhi or Chennai lose both their games AND that Deccan loses at least one game. So very tough for my dark horse but then again ‘IPL is a funny game’.

2. The rest of the pack:

a) Chennai will be fancying their chances. One big win and they can make it. So if they beat Delhi tomorrow they can almost feel safe. Cos then realistically only one of Delhi or Deccan will make it. And the Rajasthan v KKR game needs to have a huge margin of victory for one of those to be a contender. Great odds for them if they win tomorrow. So this is almost a quarterfinal for them while it isnt so for Delhi.

b) Deccan: Really given where they are on the run rate , they need to win both. Simple. But of course its not. They have the firepower and dont forget they are last years winners. And Adam Gilchrist is really really due. So who knows.

c) Rajasthan: They have to Beat KKR. And Chennai (or Delhi) need to lose both their games. And Deccan needs to have at least one big loss I don’t see that happening but Shane Warne has is a poker player and he has the luck of the Irish.

d) Punjab: Well, maybe they can just seal Chennai or Deccan’s fate and try and create a new story. Or maybe set a stretch goal of getting Yuvraj to smile :-)

So its very close. Chennai probably have the best chance from the rest of the pack, But hard telling at this stage who will make it. Whether or not anyone does though, i think i will be making it to the IPL finals.

Dire straits – facing the music

noreply@blogger.com (12th man) — Wed, 14 Apr 2010 09:00:00 +0000

I just got home from watching Mark Knopfler play at the Paramount theatre in Oakland. Wonderful performance , great talent and excellent instrument players – but somehow didn’t fully feel like Dire Straits. Because its not the old team with the full on magic (he didn’t play Money for Nothing, Walk of Life though he did end with Sultans of Swing).

Somewhat relatedly, most of the IPL teams are in Dire Straits and one of the reasons is that they are still struggling to get the ‘right team’ and the magic. And also because the Sultans of swing havent really fired consistently (Think Brett Lee, Bond, Steyn, Balaji, Dwayne Smith, Nehra/Nannes(injury), Tait, Munaf). The only team where they have is in the semis (Zak, Malinga).
But more on that later, for now the team composition.
Its a shame that after 12 games the teams haven’t figured out what their best combination is and are still somewhat guessing. I’ll focus on the batting in this post but i think the struggle is true in bowling as well as in the foreign player quota. The teams just havent got it right and 12 games later it might be too late.
Batting: Some of the key teams with challenges

a. Even Mumbai is not fully sure of their lineup (Jayasuriya, Rayadu, Dhawan opening?) – luckily they at least have got Duminy a confirmed spot now.

b. Delhi is under pressure & may make some wild changes at the last minute (Dilshan?) and will make the semi finals (if that) with an unsettled team

c. Kolkata: McCullum hasnt fired, Hodge has been in the wings for ever, Tiwary’s position in lineup is fluctuating & David Hussey hasnt made an impact while Matthew’s can claim some success – so more experimentation on the cards i think in the last 2 games.

d. Chennai are probably closest to getting it right (Vijay and Raina in form, Dhoni and Hayden with the fear factor and Badrinath/Albie to provide some tail end relief) . Deccan seem to be getting there but not before they made a mess of Laxman’s image & Gilchrist really needs to fire. Good news is though that they know the role for Symonds, Sharma and Suman. Punjab are probably started getting it right with Jayawardene at the top but doesn’t really matter. Neither does the Royals because Warne mixes it up all the time anyway.

e. The biggest headache is for Bangalore and its a problem of plenty. Kallis, Dravid, Uthapa, Kohli, Taylor, KP, White, Pandey?? To me its been clear – open with Uthapa or Taylor & use Dravid as the floater to come in when Kallis falls & Kohli when Dravid falls. That way you always have a steady stream of stability and creativity through the innings. I am neutral to KP or White but still think they should have tried Roelof (but its too late now). Kumble may be forced to remove Kallis – bad move.

Any team that doesn’t enter the semis with a settled look of ‘team magic’ will find themselves in Dire straits & will certainly realize that (Prize) Money for nothing is not part of their Walk of Life.

Some email banter – Blore and Mumbai teams…

noreply@blogger.com (12th man) — Wed, 14 Apr 2010 08:21:00 +0000

Here’s an email exchange from a couple of days ago between Aloke and me on the team selection. Read bottom up. By the time you read this Blore has lost their game chasing a 150ish total. Kallis will take flak for his scoring rate but i still think its the first game where he’s really flopped. The role and strategy that i called out below (and earlier) is more critical. Kumble may even drop Kallis for the Rajasthan game and we’ll see how that goes tomorrow…

From: To: Aloke C Gupte
Subject: Not sure why

Clogs the top order...I would try rayudu for a couple of games and see how it goes ...there are enough batsmen (sachin won't listen though :( )

From: Thakar, Gautam
To: Aloke C Gupte
Sent: Tue Apr 13 00:37:07 2010
Subject: RE: Not sure why

Yep – been screaming for JP for a while and for Satish’s head. No Dhawan though?

From: Aloke C Gupte
Sent: Monday, April 12, 2010 9:33 AM
To: Thakar, Gautam
Subject: Re: Not sure why

Not to mention Nayar for Sathish (who adds no value, almost). Atleast JP is playing. Jayasuriya was a one-off...he didn't know who to pick as the 4th player...I think MI will be a lot better with this order:
- sachin, rayudu, jp, tiwary, pollard, bravo, nayar, bhajan, zak, malinga, whoever
Batting
- give rayudu a chance..I think he has what it takes
- jp to bat 1 down is perfect, the only other 'class' batsman we have
- tiwary will be better off following him then rayudu
- pollard and bravo to provide ballast next
- nayar and bhajan to boost lower order
Bowling
- malinga, zak, bhajan: all good
- bravo, pollard, nayar in support
- jp providing a spin option
- I would therefore pick no 11 as another spinner
More on bangalore later.

From: To: Aloke C Gupte
Sent: Tue Apr 13 00:25:23 2010
Subject: Not sure why

Kumble and Tendulkar obstinately ignore my free advice on Jayasurya and Pandey???? J

Also, looks like Kumbles is betting on a ‘wickets in hand’ strategy with the Kallis, Dravid playing in tandem & backing Taylor, Uthappa, Kohli and White to get anything in the end. Works better when it’s a 150 chase but hopefully he changes when faced with more imposing numbers….

IPL’s best batsman and bowler – Aloke’s weekly round up April 12

noreply@blogger.com (12th man) — Wed, 14 Apr 2010 07:58:00 +0000

Writing in from Singapore today - had to keep a short meeting schedule to get this entry in (of course it was also to watch the Indians v Daredevils game at that fabulous little ground, Brabourne). Another superb week of cricket provided by the IPL - I've heard all the stories about the commercialization of the game by the IPL...but cant understand whats wrong in getting to see the world's top cricketers play hard, intense and committed cricket??

Batting

This week saw the Orange cap change hands, before last week's leader took it back to head the list for the 4th consecutive time. However, the manner in which Kallis regained the cap was almost bewildering to watch - 27 off 37 last night. I spoke about the Kallis conundrum and now it seems it is dawning on his captain (see cricinfo) as Bangalore are teetering a bit at a decisive stage.

As i speak the Maestro has taken it back once again...but that is for next week.
This is how they stacked up last week: Kallis, Sachin, Ojha, Vijay, Yusuf, Dada, Hayden, Sehwag, Rohit, S Tiwary
Runs
#1 Kallis 528
#2 Sachin 512
#3 Dada 366

#4 N Ojha 352
#5 Symonds 346
#6 Vijay 337
#7 Jayawardene 325
#8 Sehwag 324
#9 Rohit Sharma 323
#10 Raina 322

The movers this week were unsurprisingly batsmen (Symonds & Jayawardene) who led a resurgence for their respective teams - the teams of the week really, the Deccan Chargers and Kings XI, who have now won 3 in a row. It is too late for the Kings, but the Deccan surge is happening at the right time and the league is headed for a fantastic finale next week!

My thoughts on the week -
1. The Symonds Charge. Andrew Symonds came to the party (critically) for Deccan (alongside Suman). Deccan are putting together an impressive late run that could yet make the semis. If they do, they may be hard to stop (Chennai found that year after being decimated by Gilchrist in the semi). His could be a top 10 position that makes a material difference - we shall see.

2. An honourable mention. Robin Uthappa is ranked #11 on runs and #1 on strike rates. He has played a strong hand in the IPL so far and to grab the no 4 slot and be informally appointed 'destroyer in chief' in a team that also has Taylor, KP, the current purple cap holder, White and the young Virat Kohli is a job well done! Many would have written Robin off amongst this lot. To add to that he is joint 1st with Yusuf on sixes! A world T20 spot, anyone??

3. The Big Fight. The league is wide open (some clarity may emerge by tonight or it might get murkier). The individual batting stakes mirror the league with 4 runs between #7 and #10. #4 - #6 are also very close. Over the next 10 days, some fortunes will certainly dip and others will soar.

Who will be next week's Vijay or Symonds, and surge through the ranks??

For the strike rate hungry (batsmen >180 runs): #1 Uthappa (takes it from Gilchrist, deservedly), #2 Yusuf, #3 Gilchrist, #4 Sehwag #5 Vijay (the top 5 remain unchanged and Uthappa, Yusuf and Vijay have made a difference to their sides unlike Gilchrist and Sehwag so far), #6 Gayle #7 Rayudu #8 Kohli #9 I Pathan and #10 Lumb. The Gayle force makes his first appearance and i think is a good punt for the amongst top 10 amongst run scorers next week. Sachin is now 17th in this list and Kallis 28th.

Batsman of the IPL (so far): Sachin Tendulkar (Now i really wanted to do that!)

Bowling
The battle of the spinners continues - and finally Piyush Chawla announced himself. There is also something in the wicket taking knack of Vinay Kumar, though he doesnt look it and is very expensive. This is how last week looked:
Wickets: Mishra, Ojha, Murli, Malinga, Zaheer, Bhajan, Vinay, Warne, Tait, RP
Eco rate: Kumble, Nannes, Kartik, Malinga, Murli, Vaas, Yuvi, Bhajan, Mishra, Trivedi
Pragyan Ojha took the Purple cap this week and is the other reason in the sharp revival of Deccan's fortunes.
Wickets
#1 Ojha 18 (7.66)

#2 Mishra 15 (6.97)
#3 Vinay 15 (8.31)

#4 Irfan 14 (8.74)

#5 Zaheer 13 (7.42)
#6 Malinga 11 (6.62)

#7 Murli 12 (6.91)

#8 Bhajji 12 (6.69)
#9 RP Singh 12 (8.41)
#10 Kumble (6.16)
Interesting that Indians take the top 5 slots. This is partly because the overseas players dont always play - Nannes, Vaas, Harris all havent played all through the tournament, and even poor Murli lost his place ranked 3rd! On a positive note, the never flagging Anil Kumble makes an appearance in the top 10 - he has bowled well (as the list below will depict adequately!)

Eco Rates
#1 Kumble 6.16 (12)
#2 Nannes 6.51 (6)
#3 Kartik 6.51 (6)
#4 Bhajji 6.69 (12)
#5 Yusuf 6.90 (5)
#6 Murli 6.91 (12)
#7 Ashwin 6.96 (7)

#8 Malinga 7.00 (13)

#9 Trivedi 7.10 (9)

#10 Mishra 7.15 (15)
Anil Kumble retains his spot, as do #2 & #3 Nannes and Kartik, without playing at all! Highlights what i mentioned last week on the joys of not playing ;). Not many changes in this list, except Ashwin of Chennai (who just about met my no of overs bowled criteria).
Observations:
1. Its funny. i commented last week on both Warne and Yuvraj ("The Legend & The Brat"). The former had slipped in on the wickets list, the latter on eco rates. They are both out this week underlying the old 'funny' game moniker. Lets see what happens next week
2. Spinners, Pacers. Its interesting to see the spinners dominate the economy rates (7/10). On the wickets front they slip to 5/10 which is also very creditable. The pacers are affected by bowling upfront and at the death (a good case can be made for spinners having bowled better upfront). Despite the statistics - the fact simply is that some of the bowlers have done really well and bowled some super spells (i enjoyed Zaheer bowling to the Royals and then Steyn against Deccan tremendously).
Bowler of the week (so far): Pragyan Ojha. Lifted his team's fortunes, bowling beautifully, if he keeps it up for another week, Deccan will make the semis.

till next week...

Leaving Las Vegas

noreply@blogger.com (12th man) — Mon, 12 Apr 2010 16:03:00 +0000

Haven't been able to write for the last few days as i was in Vegas. And between shows (O), concerts (AC DC), the strip and gambling; it was a tough trade off :-) . But its been an interesting weekend of results with some good 'gambles' paying off and some not ( Jayawardene & Jayasurya opening) almost like my performance at the roulette tables :-(. But an interesting week nonetheless - with Punjab's giant killing behaviour now opening up the league.
My backing the old warhorse Gilchrist has been a spectacular flop. His duck today against the BRC's might just have snuffed his team's hopes as i type and certainly snuffed out my prediction of his making the top 10 as also any hope for my fantasy league team.

On the topic of the Top 10, will wait for Aloke's weekly roundup contribution but my dark horse Jayawardene made the list i think as did Shane Warne (though in a joint tenth)

This week though KKR will need to 'gamble' hard if they are to make it (drop Ishant and Bond and back the batting) but let's see how that goes. I'm back and will cover the remainder of the IPL as we go to the 'home stretch' ...

Bangalore woes; Mumbai chances

noreply@blogger.com (12th man) — Fri, 09 Apr 2010 08:49:00 +0000

I'd called out in my last article the questions Bangalore Royal Challengers needs to get right .
1. The 4 foreign players composition. I'd argued that Steyn may not be the best bet & made a case for KP, Kallis, Taylor and Roelof. Did Kumble get it rigjht? Nope. Dropping KP & keeping White & Steyn was a mistake. Even if you justify White - Steyn gave away 9.5 runs per over without a wicket!!!! One swallow does not a summer make but he's just not be as penetrative as we'd all like.

2. Dravid's role in the team ? Well , not sure why anyone should play him alongside Kallis. they have an identical role - stabilise one end for others to hit out & stay to finish at the end. Dravid needs to be the floater and just stay padded up till Kallis gets out.

Which brings me to reinforce another article - the naysayers have their claws out for Kallis and even after a 150 strike rate performance have cautioned against his selection. Makes no sense to me . Just get the others to do their job and get rid of Pandey.

What of Mumbai then. They need to experiment too. Duminy and perhaps some of last years brigade (Nayar, Kulkarni?) need to be given a chance here and i expect them to. Tomorrows game will be close but i think Punjab will win as Mumbai wont experiment too much.

Till then....

IPL 2010: The best batsman & bowler; Aloke Gupte’s April 5 roundup

noreply@blogger.com (12th man) — Tue, 06 Apr 2010 01:04:00 +0000

A little crinkle this week - i have included tonight's slightly bizarre game (A Deccan Fiasco more than a Royal Comeback) in the statistics. The more meaningful point to raise though that the IPL has cranked up the fever a few notches as we move into the home stretch!
Batting

The double "Vijays" inspired by Murli (not the world's highest wicket taker) for the Super Kings took the IPL by storm this week. We shall now examine whether he and the other movers and shakers have made any impact to our honours roll.
Our very own (Mumbai) Indian (and proud Maharashtrian) Idol trailed Kallis by 7 runs last week, as they rounded up in the following order: Kallis, Sachin, Yusuf, Hayden, Sehwag, Bopara, Raina, Ojha, Pandey, Uthappa

Runs
#1 Kallis 425
#2 Sachin 349
#3 N Ojha 308
#4 Vijay 300
#5 Yusuf 283
#6 Dada 277
#7 Hayden 261
#8 Sehwag 260
#9 Rohit Sharma 258
#10 S Tiwary 250
Yes. I know. Bear with me for just a little bit. I own up to my error from last week ("Kallis retains his lead, for the last time, i think"). The South African Grizzly has not only retained his lead but has stretched it to an impressive 76 (albeit having played 1 game more than the Maestro). I will dwell more on the "Kallis Konundrum" a little later.
As you can see, we have a lot to talk about this week -
1. THE Super King. Murli Vijay, take a bow. The statistics are mind boggling.
You know his last 3 knocks read 42(28), 78(38) and 127(56).
You know the last 2 contained an unimaginable 17 sixes (holds the IPL record for most 6s in a game - 11, beating Yusuf's 9).
Do You Know he has the highest strike rate amongst ALL 10 names you see up here (the 3rd highest overall amongst batsmen who scored 150+)??
The most remarkable thing is - You would have probably been a billionaire (well, a millionaire at the least if you bet a 100 greenbacks on Vijay storming into this company!). Naman Ojha is another get rich story (if you did bet on him, that is)
2. Time to get 'Senti'. Dada!! His knock against Bangalore was excellent and catapults him (along with the other half century) into #6. Impressive, indeed. I can hear the nay-sayers (and yes his strike rate even after that knock is 113) but we have to admit that he led KKR to an important win last week under pressure and merits the entry more than Hayden and Sehwag, who stay in due to only reasonable performances and little inspiration (and compared to Dada, no personal pressure). He will probably not be around here next week so lets cheer this while we can!
3. The Kallis 'Konundrum'. GT has been analyzing the Bangalore story in detail & Kallis's IPL performance in particular and i feel (not yet, but soon) the question of Kallis is going to give old Jumbo a headache. It sounds (and probably is) churlish to say this about the holder of the Orange Cap for the 3rd straight week but let me put forward my case.
The Challengers played 3 games this week and Kallis made two half-centuries (off 40 odd balls each time) - Bangalore lost both games. They won when he was out early and KP had the time to play a big knock (with support from the gang). In the strike rate business, he is 25th amongst batsmen who have scored 150+ (incredibly his opening partner till last but 1 game was slower!). With Pietersen, Taylor, Steyn, White and Boucher as the other internationals, Bangalore has a tough selection to make before every game.
As long as (a) Kallis keeps making runs (b) it is the league stage, i think RCB will persist with him - he bowls (reasonably) and provides stability for the big hitters.
However, in the semi-final, would you risk playing him and his getting 50 off 40 and keep White or Taylor or Boucher or Steyn out? Let me know.
For the strike rate hungry (batsmen >150 runs): #1 Gilchrist (for the 3rd week in a row, like Kallis), #2 Uthappa, #3 Vijay, #4 Yusuf #5 Sehwag, #6 Irfan #7 Warner #8 Rayudu #9 Albie and #10 Yuvi. A bit of shake up with Vijay and #s 7-10 being new entrants. The notable ones that have slipped out are the Maestro and Dhoni (does not qualify on runs scored). Interestingly, both their teams had a happy week. Gilchrist, on the other hand needs to do a lot more (including select the right team) to resurrect the fortunes of the Chargers.

Batsman of the IPL (not on 'so far' basis this time, but only this week): Murli Vijay (You would not have won too much on that bet!). Where will he go from here? Flash in the pan?

Bowling

A very interesting week for the 'pie chuckers', including a change in the owner of the Purple cap. But first a quick snapshot of last week's men:
Wickets: Murli, Tait, Vaas, Bhajji, Vinay, Mishra, P Ojha, Praveen, Balaji, Symonds
Eco rate: Kumble, Kartik, Murli, Yusuf, Vaas, Yuvi, Nannes, Malinga, Trivedi, Symonds
One of my observations last week was "The 2nd Spinner". I spoke about why both Amit Mishra and Pragyan Ojha will be perplexed about Chawla's selection ahead of them in the Indian team. You can safely say that isnt going to be only them that are perplexed this week.
Wickets
#1 Mishra 14 (6.94)
#2 Ojha 13 (8.20)
#3 Murli 12 (6.91)
#4 Malinga 11 (6.62)
#5 Zaheer 11 (7.48)
#6 Bhajji 10 (6.78)
#7 Vinay 10 (8.19)
#8 Warne 10 (7.13)
#9 Tait 10 (8.47)
#10 RP Singh 9 (8.70)
India's 3rd & 4th choice spinners (God knows which is which) lead the list this week! Its is no fluke either as both were in the mix last week. Chawla is ranked 33rd on this scale - are you confused too? or angry?! Even poor Jakati who has played 4 games is ahead.
Eco Rates
#1 Kumble 5.94 (8)
#2 Nannes 6.51 (6)
#3 Kartik 6.51 (6)
#4 Malinga 6.62 (11)
#5 Vaas 6.66 (8)
#6 Yuvi 6.71 (3)
#7 Bhajji 6.78 (10)
#8 Murli 6.91 (12)
#9 Mishra 6.94 (10)
#10 Trivedi 7.09 (6)
Jumbo tops again. Should he be the 2nd spinner? ;)
The benefits of not playing are evident here - both Nannes and Vaas have not played this week (through no fault of theirs, injury and poor selection respectively) and you might argue have benefitted in the eco rates race! Nannes certainly has - moving from 7th last week to 2nd, and Vaas retains his #5 slot. Interesting eh?
Observations:
1. A Mumbai Story. We know the batting relies on the Maestro - but is that the only reason the Indians are top of the table? We've all known the answer is NO. The bowling stats after this week prove this - Slinga, Zak & Bhajji all occupy slots amongst the wicket takers and Slinga and Bhajji are in the eco rates mix. Slinga is close to a top 3 position in both - that really is outstanding as we have seen this is difficult to achieve (so far only Murli had and he is now at 8th in eco rates). This is a bowling pack if there ever has been one in the IPL atleast.
2. The Legend & The Brat. Two men that dominate headlines for all sorts of reasons. Could they just be on the verge of magic in the IPL?
- Shane Keith Warne has always been a magician and his bag of tricks has just started to open up. After an ordinary start (poor by his standards), the fingers have warmed up and so has the heart. 8th amongst wickets and 12th on eco rates, he could be on the way to a top 10 finish on both. The Royals will then certainly make the semis (remember, the other Shane is also on fire).
- Yuvraj Singh has supposedly had a terrible IPL. Lost the captaincy, coming back from injury, poor form, an unhappy boss in Ms. Zinta (did you think i was talking about Sanga??), a woeful start to the season and now rumors of rifts. He certainly has not scored what Punjab expect and need him to, but despite that he is in the top 10 on strike rates (having qualified on my minimum runs criteria) and on eco rates (he bowls a fair bit too). With his batting looking ominous in the last 2 games - he could yet leave this IPL with a much better frame of mind than when he entered. That will not cure Punjab's ills (they were my 'fly' pick), but could be critical for India in the Carribbean.
Bowler of the IPL (so far): Slinga. Despite the stats and despite Murli, i think we all wanted this to be the case from very early on in the IPL!
BEST will be back...

IPL 2010: Team composition – tough calls

noreply@blogger.com (12th man) — Sun, 04 Apr 2010 20:00:00 +0000

An interesting day today with Punjab finally showing some fight & Delhi taking the fight out of the Royal Challengers. In both games there were some smart, aggressive team changes - dictated by match conditions, form & perhaps an odd one to give players rest. I think the composition will be crucial in determining the semi-final lineup in the next few weeks.

1. Punjab Kings XI: Rusty Theron for Lee(who is struggling) should have been done earlier . Also Romesh Powar who they bowled early delivered outstanding figures of under 6 runs an over. Jayawardene back as opener (where he’s had great success in Sri-Lanka) took the game away means that Bopara (who’s form has started to dip) will be out when Marsh returns. They took some tough calls and won – so perhaps they can redeem some pride in the 2nd half of the tournament. A much more balanced side now though Chawla is not really justifying his India call up yet.

2. Bangalore Royal Challengers: Kumble made the boldest moves – was great despite the loss today. He dropped Dale Steyn (conditions & also to get a foreign player in), Praveen Kumar (very inconsistent) & Manish Pandey (read earlier post that Pandey cant have a strike rate lower than Kallis & still open the innings).

I think Kumble needs to get 2 hard calls things right.

(a) Who is the 4th foreign player ? Ross Taylor & Kallis are no brainers. KP is a huge player and provides bowling options. So really White (the opening experiment didn’t work today but liked how Kumble thinks), Steyn (just 7 wickets in 8 games at an economy of 7.8 odd is hardly awe inspiring), Morgan (low odds for no fault of his) & Roelof (yes, i think he should be added in the mix for his all round abilities) are going to duke it out. Poor Boucher.

(b) What is Dravid’s role? In the best of times he is not needed to bat (doesn’t bowl, field :-) or keep) and in the worst of times comes in when the ask is 15 runs an over). He just seems set up to fail. If Kumble asks Kallis, KP & Kohli to play the role of staying to the end and Taylor, Uthappa, White/Roelof to attack then Dravid is not really needed. On the other hand if he does keep Dravid, he needs to ask KP and Kohli to really go for it as he then has a finisher on call on if needed and with the rate in the 8-10 runs per over Dravid can totally do it. Currently he seems under utilized with an unclear role.

Given that, I’d consider gambling with Roelof. Slow seems to be better than fast & he provides a handy hitting option. So I’d go with Kallis, Uthappa, KP, Ross, Kohli, Dravid & Roelof as the batting order. Alternatively if he decides to pick Steyn then have Dravid go in at whatever stage Kallis loses his wicket.

3. Delhi DareDevils : These guys also rang in the changes. They dropped McDonald (had to get in Vettori), Yadav (very unfortunate as he was bowling well but i think it was ‘cos they didn’t think pace worked on the Kotla) & Ladda (who’s been in and out along with his replacement Bhatia). Smart changes especially as Sangwan clicked & Vettori got some time with both bat and ball. However they also need to decide what to do once Nannes & Nehra are fit?. Mithun Manhas has played well in the past as has Yadav. Sehwag and Gambhir aren't really firing and its incredible (though very impressive) that they continue to bench Dilshan and AB De Villiers. I think this is going to be the toughest team composition (weird to say that since they are winning anyway) but I’d like to see Gambhir experiment in games 11,12 so that he can make the right call for the knockout stages.

4. KKR: Well, they didn’t really experiment and they lost. Not intended to be a correlation but their bowling is not really working. Perhaps its time to consider a batting heavy strategy & accept that they are always going to give 170+ runs away. So get McCullum (and Id’ argue Hodge) in. Bond , like Steyn , has promised but not really delivered. So Gayle, McCullum, Matthews & Hodge might be a better all round foreign mix. And then batting all rounders (Shukla, Gavaskar etc) so that there’s enough depth. And just make sure that Agarkar doesn't get carried away and that Kartik takes at least 1 out of every 3 catches that come his way!!!

Net, i think the team composition is a hard one with some tough calls needed but its what might make the difference as things start getting tight. In most cases , it’s a problem of plenty but somebody is going to have to be the water boy. What think?

IPL 2010 - Chennai, Rajasthan, Deccan and Mumbai

noreply@blogger.com (12th man) — Sat, 03 Apr 2010 07:01:00 +0000

So its largely going to be a day of no upsides for the 4 teams that play tomorrow. Winning doesnt mean anything really but losing can really hurt (for the most part).

1. Chennai: They need to win at least 4/6 games , maybe 5 more. So while beating the Rajasthan Royals will be a relief tomorrow it's really about not losing any more games. If they lose it will be incredibly hard to make up. The good news for them is that they have Hussey and Bollinger back but unsure if they will play both after the long flight. Chennai will win tomorrow unless...

2. Rajasthan Royals: are inspired to prove Gautam Gambhir wrong. Side story but not sure he really meant to insult the Royals when he made the comment that except Yusuf Pathan , the rest of them were 'ordinary'. But truth be told - they are bits and pieces players who on average are just that. Average. At 8 points a win can reallty help them right? Wrong - they are destined to be the heartbreak story forever so they will always come close to being in the semis (maybe even lose on run rate very narrowly) . Such is their consistently inconsistent brilliance that even if they win tomorrow it will mean nothing. But i think they will lose tomorrow (and then come back to beat Mumbai).

3. Deccan Chargers: Another downside only story. Winning is critical but doesnt mean much. They too need to win 4,5 more games - only advantage is they have 7 games; one more than most. So losing tomorrow is less damaging than for the Super Kings. Ryan Harris seems to be the hot favorite to replace Kemar Roach (8 overs, 80 odd runs and no wickets). But its not going to be about the bowling - its all about whether Gilly, Gibbs & Symonds fire - like really fire ; I am talking150+ strike rate. And i think Gilly will set the stage.

4. Mumbai Indians: In an odd sort of way, i think that there's only downside for the Indians if they win tomorrow. It means that the law of averages will catch up, it would mean that they havent really experimented much and that they will get cocky (Bhajji is already talking up being the first team to qualify etc). So for their own good, i hope they lose. I hope they try Duminy, perhaps mix up the order to give both West Indians batting practice and also perhaps rest some of their fast bowlers. But i think Tendulkar will play safe till at least 7 games (maybe 8) are won. And i dont think thats a good sign.

In any case , none of the results tomorrow will impact my semi finals prediction (MI, DD, RCB, KKR) while Chennai (and maybe Deccan) could knock themselves out if they have a poor day in the field.

Vaas & Punjab vs Blore

noreply@blogger.com (12th man) — Fri, 02 Apr 2010 15:05:00 +0000

I hadn't spent a lot of time thinking about why Vaas has been dropped despite being the leading wicket taker (at the time) so was pretty perplexed. But here's an interesting explanation on cricinfo. In case some of you haven't seen i thought i would share. That said, still not very clear why they couldn't use him fully just 'outside the death overs' ??If you have your theories, let me know.

Quickly on today's game - though i wrote off the Punjab team long ago ; i just wonder whether Sangakara & Yuvraj will be smarting (from the ban and all the media reports of a rift) and come out blazing to make things tough for the Royal's campaign? I suspect that might be the case - and even Preity Zinta , she of the forever dimpled cheeks, cant just stay humbled and still smile for too many more games.

How things change – Kallis and Ganguly

noreply@blogger.com (12th man) — Fri, 02 Apr 2010 07:36:00 +0000

Perhaps Kallis won’t like me branding him with Ganguly – but then again if he is reading my blog , I’ll take his displeasure :-)

As Ganguly’s Knights defeated the Chargers (yay for my unpopular KKR in semis prediction) and as Bangalore has lost a couple in a row, the tide seems to be turning. The positive energy about Ganguly is resurfacing here while Kallis , astonishingly , is starting to get some flak. The same Kallis who could do no wrong might be in trouble. I predict that if he scores below 7.5 per over in Bangalore’s next loss, the knives will be out despite an outstanding start to the series. So i thought I’d look at the performances and see whether any of it is warranted.

Jacque Kallis: performance to date

If you take a look at Kallis’s performance you will see the following. (i) He has an astonishing average (courtesy the 4 not outs) (ii) is the highest scorer so far but (iii) his strike rate is 124. If you notice, his strike rate is going down consistently since the game against Punjab chasing 200+.And coincidentally his two poorest strike rates are the ones in games that Bangalore has recently lost. More damagingly, a strike rate of 124 does not put him in the top 50 players in the IPL on the basis of strike rates!!!!! Now that doesn’t sound so good for someone who plays in the powerplay and maybe the critics (who , i promise will come) have something there. However , despite this data , lets really understand what is going on here. Kallis’s role is to stay there and have others score aggressively. And how’s that going. Not as well. Manish Pandey is scoring at a strike rate EVEN LOWER than Kallis @ 119. Couple that with the fact that Uthappa didn’t really fire the last game and now you have the real problem. Make no mistake - if Kallis cant get back to at least 125 consistently then its a problem. But if he does (and he will), he is more than doing his job and the rest of the team (Pandey is in danger anyway) needs to play its role and the Royal Challengers will be back on track.

Ganguly’s revival

Ganguly did dwarf over the rest of his team in the game against Deccan as you can see in the scorecard alongside. 88 runs at a strike rate of 162 is awesome. And if he can pull this off one more game – the positive press will absolutely rocket. Dada’s last hurrah, his swansong, what was Buchanan thinking etc etc . Funnily enough , take a guess what Ganguly’s overall scoring rate is at this point. A measly 113!!!!!! And his role – not yet clear as he has moved up and down the order (seems to be settling to open) and struggled against the pace and struggled to accelerate in all games except the last one.

So spare a thought for Kallis , who has been the best all round player so far – is playing the role asked of him (ok one bad match) and don’t burn him at the stake if he doesnt score at the 150 strike rate – that’s not his job. Dada, sure its his swansong – so , what a great innings and what a turnaround!!

What does a team with a problem of plenty do??

noreply@blogger.com (12th man) — Wed, 31 Mar 2010 17:57:00 +0000

So a good day on the prediction front with both calls (Delhi and Chennai) turning out well. Not so good for the Royals (who i wanted to win despite predicting against). A huge sigh of relief for Chennai. If they win the next game they will truly think they are back with a chance (and the next game is against Rajasthan so Dhoni will fancy his chances - more on that later).

Interesting question now though is what do Delhi and Bangalore do with their team selection going forward.

1. Bangalore: They benched Boucher (risk with Uthappa who's not a specialist) and Morgan but were justified as KP and White both performed well in the limited time they had. Morgan can feel unlucky that he didnt really get a chance while Dravid should feel lucky that he's in. (questionable if No 7 is the right slot for him). Kumble may be thinking that he can move up and down the order to provide flexibility but i think he's there at this point more for emotional reasons. More importantly they have Ross coming soon - and he's been in superb form , treating the Australian test attack in the 1st innings of the 2nd test like he was already playing in the IPL T20. Also Praveen Kumar is losing a bit of steam and Roelof and Dillon are sitting in the ranks (though they are already hitting the foreign player cap). So finding the balance and sticking with it will be hard but important if they are to go through.

2. Delhi: This is a little different from Bangalore - problem of plenty because of non performers. Sehwag certainly hasn't set the stage on fire - he's probably bordering on inconsistency even by his standards wrt big scores every 3 games, Dilshan and De Villiers are already benched and Collingwood has hit the ground running as have Mithin and Jadhav when they had the chance. Nehra is fit and probably wanting a go & when Nannes it back this will be a headache as the bowlers (Yadav, Sangwan, Mahroof, Mishra etc have all donbe pretty well).So a bowling problem of plenty and a batting problem of tough calls (bench Sehwag for a couple - will Gambhir dare?). Either way he needs to get it right fast and stick to it.

What do you think Kumble and Gambhir should do ?

Another big day - predictions?

noreply@blogger.com (12th man) — Wed, 31 Mar 2010 06:45:00 +0000

1. Chennai vs Bangalore: Big game for Chennai. They have to , have to win. And i think they will. Their batting will fire. Perhaps i say this with optimism and hope so as to open up the draw and not have Mumbai/Bangalore be runaway winners - even though they are my semi nominations. The other reason i think this is the case is that Bangalore have (i) had a long break & (b) have a problem of plenty with the arrival of KP and White. The temptation to play both will mean that Uthappa will probably keep wickets and it may change the lineup. If they succumb to trying too many changes then they will confuse the team and Chennai will capitalise.

2. Rajasthan vs Delhi: All of Shane Warne's twitter messages notwithstanding (rodddick and hair salons while maintaining optimism for the Delhi game) - this one will be a tough one to crack for him. 4 in a row is good , 5 is probably asking for too much. Then again, it depends on who Delhi plays in their batting lineup - a team that benches AB and Dilshan (woeful form as may be the case) and still wins so easily needs to be feared. If any one of their top 3 fire then thats that. Nannes, Nehra (he'll be back) and Yadav will do the rest and Mishra will come on after Yusuf has departed. Again, to be clear , i hope Rajasthan wins but just think it unlikely tomorrow (though they'll probably come back and beat the Mumbai Indians in a few days).

Mumbai bench strength - the test. By Aloke Gupte

noreply@blogger.com (12th man) — Wed, 31 Mar 2010 06:09:00 +0000

Some thoughts on the Mumbai-Punjab game; a scare but Malinga was a star.

We needed that - to test what happens when Sach fails.
(a) it is scary (but creditable that they pulled it off in the end)
(b) Bravo & Pollard have to do more (right strategy to bat them at 3 to get some practice)
(c) need to give Duminy 2-3 games to acclimatize (in case we need him later)
(d) sit Dhawan down. He needs to finish a game...that's his task (guy is good but has attitude)
(e) however, don't experiment too much...you may lose the winning touch

The IPL's best bowlers & batsman: Aloke Gupte's w/o Mar 29th roundup

noreply@blogger.com (12th man) — Mon, 29 Mar 2010 08:38:00 +0000

Posting an article by Aloke Gupte - part time investment banker at JP Morgan, full time cricket enthusiast and statistician :-) Aloke will publish , among other things the weekly round up on this topic. Here goes…

This is more a comment on GT's piece on sunday, but has gotten too long and so here we are. This series serve as a performance review if you will - and while the idea is to predict who will be on top it is perhaps more satisfying (and useful to get predictions right) to who has moved and of course, those that have moved down.

A snapshot of the top 10 batsmen and bowlers also allows us to do some reflective analysis on how their teams are doing, so we will go ahead and attempt a few observations as well.

First, (as is this game's wont) the batting. Last week's order in terms of RUNS was: Kallis, Sehwag, Sachin, Bopara, S Tiwary, Gilly, Mongoose, Symonds, Yusuf and Karthik. A couple of surprises but largely an entirely believable cast of characters. Kallis had 78 run lead and the debate was about whether someone will catch him at all, let alone in 1 week.

Runs

#1 Kallis 310

#2 Sachin 303

#3 Yusuf 250 (easily leads the MVP list right now)

#4 Hayden 215

#5 Sehwag 198

#6 Bopara 197

#7 Raina 194

#8 N Ojha 186

#9 Pandey 179

#10 Uthappa 177

Kallis retains his lead, I think for the last time (not saying this because I am an ardent Mr. T fan, which of course I am). There is something else happening which will impact the teams in a major way - some good, some bad. That’s a long discussion and I'll have to get into that later.

A couple of other things to mention about the names above:

1. 7 Openers! The funny thing isnt that there are so many of them (you would expect that) but that they are there despite not really lighting up the tournament! Kallis & Sachin have been outstanding and you may argue that Bopara, Ojha and Pandey are punching above their weight. Hayden (up from 7th to 4th!) and Sehwag (2nd last week, down 3 spots now) have not exactly been their domineering selves but are perched in the top 5!

2. Yusuf. The man is currently in a league of his own. Went from 9th to 3rd last week, opens the bowling (and does pretty darn well there too). Is the only non-opener in the top 5, which is also a fantastic testament to how well he has done. Not hard to see why the Royals have gathered so much momentum!

3. The Churn. There are 4 new men in the list. Raina, Ojha, Pandey and Uthappa have replaced Tiwary, Gilly, Symonds and Karthik. They currently occupy #7-10 meaning that 6 of last weeks run scorers have done enough to stay ahead. Does any of these 4 have enough steam and opportunity to make a further dent in this list? Will be an interesting to follow their fortunes this week.

4. The Good, the Bad & the Ugly. GT hits the nail on the head with his piece on the importance of the bowling in this format. Consider this - the top 10 consists of 3 Royal Challengers, 2 Royals & 1 (the one) Mumbai Maestro (this is the 'Good'), 1 Kings XI, 0 KKR (the 'Bad') and 2 Super Kings (now that’s just Ugly). No co-relation to where the teams are placed, you might say.

For those that want a peek at strike rates, here you go (min of 125 runs): #1 Gilly (retains his spot), #2 Yusuf, #3 Sehwag, #4 Uthappa, #5 Dhoni (same guys in the top 5, middle 3 moving amongst themselves), #6 Irfan, #7 M Tiwary, #8 Hayden, #9 Rohit, #10 Sachin. Kallis is 16th! Remarkable that the man who has 1 six to his name should be in this mix.

Batsman of the IPL (so far): Sachin Tendulkar (runs, speed, leading the team, max impact…its all there). Watch this space to see if he remains there next week.

Bowling now.

Last week's men (Wickets): Vaas, Murli, Symonds, Praveen, Ishant, Balaji, Maharoof, Nannes, Matthews, Mishra (quite an odd lot)

Last week's men (Eco rates): Murli, Kumble, Kartik, Vaas, Yuvraj, Symonds, Nannes, Zaheer, Langeveldt, Rohit Sharma (a somewhat better lot)

GT is right - you would rather have a Zaheer in your team than Balaji or Ishant…the difference is palpable. Here are both lists for this week:

Bowling

Wickets Eco rate

#1 Murli 11 (6.28) #1 Kumble 5.49 (5)

#2 Tait 9 (7.20) #2 Kartik 5.57 (4)

#3 Vaas 8 (6.66) #3 Murali 6.28 (11)

#4 Bhajji 8 (7.08) #4 Yusuf 6.57 (5)

#5 Vinay 8 (7.66) #5 Vaas 6.66 (8)

#6 Mishra 7 (7.31) #6 Yuvraj 6.66 (3)

#7 Ojha 7 (7.73) #7 Nannes 6.75 (5)

#8 Praveen 7 (7.50) #8 Malinga 6.92 (6)

#9 Balaji 7 (8.95) #9 Trivedi 6.93 (3)

#10 Symonds 6 (7.00) #10 Symonds 7.00 (6)

Murli has over taken his buddy Vaas (who, poor chap got dropped for the headline signing Kemar Roach!?). My conclusions:

1. The Unfortunates. Bowlers do have it tough and not just because of flat decks, short boundaries and the Mongoose. Take 2 cases this week : First, Vaas (#3 in wickets, #5 in eco rate) dropped last night for $700,000 signing, fast Kemar Roach! All this while, Herschelle Gibbs plays on after being ranked #14 amongst batsmen. Now, Murli Kartik - is #2 on eco rates and plays for a team (KKR) that you think needs him. However, register this - he drops Sachin, gets stick from Dada and mysteriously disappears for the game against Kings XI. Strange? No, just the lot of a bowler.

2. The 2nd Spinner. Continuing the trend of unhappy bowlers, am sure both Amit Mishra and Pragyan Ojha are thinking they deserved to be on the flight to the Carribean more than Chawla (4 @ 7.63). They are both in the top 10 wicket takers - 7 apiece and Mishra has a better average then Chawla. Even Murli Kartik might agonize a bit about this - he has the same number of wickets, lot more experience and is one of 2 bowlers conceding <6 runs per over!

3. Yusuf. I know. I know. But what can you do, the man is in 3 of the 4 sets above! He hasn’t made it to the top 10 wicket takers (yet) but it would take a brave soul to bet against him!

Bowler of the IPL (so far): Murli. Very difficult to look beyond a man in the top 3 on both parameters and bowling with gusto. His sheer joy at dismissing Sri Lankan team mates Sanga and Mahela (within minutes of each other) was great to watch!

Happy watching and I'll be back with the next edition of BEST, next Monday

Its all about the bowlers

noreply@blogger.com (12th man) — Sun, 28 Mar 2010 22:45:00 +0000

So you saw the chart i shared in my last post that showed the Mumbai Indians batting & bowling averages. I wondered if there was more to it than just the fact that Harbhajan is dominating both averages. I rifled through the other team’s performances to date and realized that its all about the bowling. Take a look.

You already saw that Mumbai Indians have 5 bowlers with an economy rate below 8.

Now lets take a look at the other consistent performer in this years league. The Royal Challengers of Bangalore. Here’s how they stack up (you can click on the chart to expand size). If you look carefully you’ll see that they have 4 strong batsmen with a 30+ average. The rest are not as strong but frankly that’s because their top order fired so well that the others didn’t even get a chance. (Remember Kallis didn’t get out for the first 4 games). And their bowling – well 5 bowlers with an economy rate below 8 and only only 7 used (even if you count Kohli’s 2 overs).

Closer to the bottom of the table and take a look at Chennai Super Kings.They also have have 5 batsmen with 30+ averages – each having scored at least 100 runs with a very healthy strike rates (>125). However look at the bowling. The fact that they now have 6 bowlers with a sub 8 per over average hides an important nuance. They have tried at least 12 bowlers and half of them have cost well above the 8 per over average. So a very unsettled bowling line up.

If i go further down to the bottom of the pool – the story is even worse. Only one Punjab Kings X1 batsman scoring at an average greater than 30, 13 bowlers tried with more than half of them leaking > 8 runs per over. So that team is really in the dumps. Nothing really working.
So Bangalore has great bowling & batting averages, Mumbai has done a great job in bowling and is heavily reliant on Tendulkar for the batting. Chennai has a positive score on batting but an unsettled look to the bowling and the Punjab da puttar’s have nothing working.

So , and my head of analytics back at work will cringe at the statistical accuracy of these conclusions, here’s what it leads me to believe. 1. Bowling will be the key to the IPL 2010 Success: Teams need to stick to 6-8 bowlers hereonin and have at least 4 of them average below 8 runs an over. 2. Batting is necessary but not sufficient: You cant win this without at least 3-5 batsmen having an average of >30. But that's not enough (as Chennai showed).

So what does this mean for the teams.
1. My semi final predictions: Bangalore and (shockingly) Kolkata actually have a well balanced team. Its Delhi and Mumbai thats somewhat lopsided. Mumbai desperately (i think) need to find a balance that gets them at least 2 more 30+ average batsmen (drop McLaren for Duminy and maybe Nayyar or Kulkarni from last year for Satish). Delhi in contrast need to get some more bowling - maybe Nehra can do the trick but I've never figured that guy out.
2. The rest: On paper Deccan have great balance - i just dont believe in carrying so many old legs. Rajasthan also has good balance, the best captain and tons of magic. I always hope that they can make it through but despite the balance that this article recommends (and that the numbers suggest they have); they may always remain the 'almost' team as they perhaps have too many young legs. Chennai needs bowlers and by the time Bollinger comes it will be too late. Punjab - its hard to learn how to bat , bowl and field after losing 6 games; even a dimpled smile cant save them now.

Bhajji takes Mumbai Indians all the way

noreply@blogger.com (12th man) — Sun, 28 Mar 2010 18:02:00 +0000

So a crazy game today at the IPL2010.
Its one of those days when you are delighted that your predictions go wrong. What can i say about the Royals – i think i am going to be in a huge dilemma in the unlikely event of a MI vs RR finals :-) They are my soft spot team since 2008. Naman Ojha, you beauty as one commentator would say!!!! And Aneesh Vijayakar called it right – the Chennai team isn’t coming together as well.

And then there’s the Chargers. While I’ve always said that too many ‘oldies’ will crimp them & they wont make the semi-finals; Gilchrist and the Chargers lost the plot. I thought the law of averages would catch up with Tendulkar & that Gilly would fire. Neither happened & Warne’s tactic of starting with a spinner against Gilchrist seems to be paying off now.
After having Mumbai at 119/7 , you would have thought that Kemar, RP and co would have delivered the sucker punch. Instead Harbhajan delivered the 19/20 punch. (19 runs in the 19th over and 20 runs in the 20th). Who would’ve thought ??

Harbhajan’s performance was out of the world today. Definitely the man of the match in my book. But take a look at this chart alongside. He’s the No 1 Batsmen (based on averages) and No 1 bowler (based on economy rate) in the Mumbai Indians team. I pulled this chart in the break so its changed some now – Harbhajan has added a few more wickets but Malinga has moved up on economy.

However the strength of the side seems to be the bowling by far. 5 bowlers with economy rates of under 8 and at least 3 match winners (Bhajji, Zak and the slinger). Plus Bravo & Pollard will improve as we go along.

That said , i do worry about the batting. Its been revolving around Tendulkar and not having a single other player with a 30+ average is worrying as also the fact that all the rest of the Indians are young and susceptible to pressure as we go to the knockouts. Need to have Bravo move up, perhaps even consider Duminy (at the expense of McLaren) at some stage and Pollard stay as the finisher. Otherwise the middle order could spell trouble when it matters.

A few more thoughts on what's working in this competition as i looked at this chart. Till then though – what an outstanding performance.

Test mobile blog.

noreply@blogger.com (12th man) — Sun, 28 Mar 2010 15:51:00 +0000

One more 50 from Tendulkar - it's like he is 16 all over again. 12 more runs to be the highest scorer of the IPL this season. Also, just heard that Kumar Sangakarra has been banned for one game (and $50k) for poor over rates - the Punjab woes continue.

Correction - thanks to Aneesh Vijayakar

noreply@blogger.com (12th man) — Sun, 28 Mar 2010 07:47:00 +0000

My good friend (and another cricket crazed junkie) Aneesh Vijaykar pointed out a mistake in a previous article where i had said that Tendulkar , in contrast to Yusuf, hasn't hit a single six and is still the 2nd highest run scorer in IPL 2010.

He did in fact hit a six , against Murali in the last game at CCI. And it was actually the 200th six of the IPL. You can see that here

Thanks Aneesh. And i hope you are right about your faith in MI for the 'away' game against Deccan ... but i fear you will not be.