The Business Forecasting Deal

Forecasting fashion apparel (Part 3)

Mike Gilliland — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 16:41:42 +0000

Some ideas sound great (combining chocolate with peanut butter) and turn out great (Reese's Peanut Butter Cup). Some ideas sound great (getting a face lift) but turn out bad (Kenny Rogers, Greta Van Susteren). Some ideas sound bad (a Run-DMC / Aerosmith duet) but turn out great ("Walk This Way"). Some ideas sound bad (letting [...]

Forecasting fashion apparel (Part 2)

Mike Gilliland — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 22:08:29 +0000

Have you noticed the annoying stock art they put on The BFD blog header? All I can think of is "If those idiots only used SAS Forecast Server, they wouldn't have to draw graphs all over their window panes just to do forecasting." It must really p.o. the housekeeping staff at that [...]

Forecasting fashion apparel

Mike Gilliland — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 22:26:57 +0000

Ten years ago I spent some time in women's undergarments*, as Director of Forecasting at Sara Lee Intimate Apparel (now Hanesbrands). Sure, it sounds glamorous -- product posters on our office walls, quarterly runway shows of new products, and partying with the full-figured Playtex models (some of whom were fuller than I figured). [...]

For the love of forecasting

Mike Gilliland — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 14:47:56 +0000

Love can make a person do bad, dangerous, stupid, and irresponsible things. Love of country can make a politician stray from his wife. Love of Pepsi can make a pop musician lose his hair in a pyrotechnics-gone-bad commercial. Love of acting can make academy award winners accept starring roles in Ishtar. And for [...]

Guest Blogger: Len Tashman previews Winter 2012 issue of Foresight

Mike Gilliland — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 20:33:55 +0000

The Winter 2012 issue of Foresight is now available. Here is Editor Len Tashman's preview: --------------------------- Our last two issues featured Steve Morlidge’s Guiding Principles for managing an organization’s forecasting process. You can see the summary table of these principles on page 31. With this issue, we continue their development [...]

Myers-Briggs Type Indicator for forecasters

Mike Gilliland — Mon, 09 Jan 2012 20:26:15 +0000

Have you taken the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI) assessment? It is a psychological test wherefrom you are classified on Extraversion vs. Introversion, Sensing vs. Intuition, Thinking vs. Feeling, and Judging vs. Perceiving. I, along with roughly 15% of the population, come out an ISTJ or "Guardian Inspector" (the single largest [...]

Institute of Business Forecasting: Workshop and book signing

Mike Gilliland — Fri, 23 Dec 2011 19:37:19 +0000

Is there anything you'd like to tell your management? Of course, in the spirit of the holiday season, I mean is there anything you'd like to tell your management that isn't anatomically impossible? If so, please join me and Ryan Rickard, Sr. Supply Chain Manager at Newell Rubbermaid, for our [...]

My Offering: Forecast Accuracy Objectives for 2012

Mike Gilliland — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 17:19:33 +0000

Managing expectations for forecast accuracy is very important, as often those expectations are extreme after management invests in a new system. Software vendors have also been known to make overly (choose one: optimistic? sanguine? idyllic?) accuracy claims as part of their sales pitch. Of course, there is no arbitrary level of accuracy [...]

SCM Focus on forecastability and over fitting

Mike Gilliland — Mon, 12 Dec 2011 15:28:28 +0000

My Google Alert on "forecastability" paid off with a gem this weekend, in the blog post "Forecastability and Over Fitting" by Shaun Snapp on SCM Focus. I was not previously familiar with Shaun or this site, but found a lot to like -- in content and attitude. In his post, Shaun kindly [...]

High on complexity

Mike Gilliland — Fri, 18 Nov 2011 22:17:08 +0000

Paul Goodwin's Hot New Research column is a must-read in each issue of Foresight. The current column, "High on Complexity, Low on Evidence: Are Advanced Forecasting Methods Always as Good as They Seem?" ends with this sage advice: If the name of a method contains more words than the number of observations that [...]