“Apple: The First 50 Years”

1. To tell you the truth, I finished this book almost a week ago, and I forgot most of what I wanted to say about it. Primarily the business insights.

Not that I don’t remember the facts. Not that I haven’t internalized the messages.

In any event, this book is not for casual fans, casual readers. If you came to the Mac after Steve Jobs returned or later, you probably won’t get far in this tome. But if you were there at the beginning…

I was not. At the very beginning. Because it was all about the Apple II.

And that lore is repeated here, the creation of the Apple I, the Apple II team’s frustration that it was considered a second class citizen whilst generating all the profits, keeping the company alive well into the Macintosh era.

But I came in in 1986. With the Mac Plus…

The original Mac was close to unusable, it only had 128kb of RAM…

Now let me see… This machine I’m running has 48 GIGS of RAM. 128kb was infinitesimal. Months later came the Fat Mac, with 512kb, but the Mac Plus had a gig of RAM. However you still had to swap floppies. The screen was still small and black and white. But if you bought in, it was a religion. Like being a fan of your favorite band, but deeper. Maybe because you were there early, you were intrigued, and you knew these machines would change the world.

Computers were not rare in 1986, but most of them were PCs…which really didn’t have an effective Windows interface until 1995. In other words, they were not very usable. They were business tools.

But what really blew up computing was AOL. Didn’t matter what platform you were on, they all worked with AOL…and people ran out and bought computers just to play.

But that was almost thirty years ago. Do today’s generations, many birthed in this century, know this?

No, just like we couldn’t fathom the introduction of television in our parents’ era.

Anyway, I had no allegiance to Apple. All I knew was I wanted to start a newsletter and needed a computer to do so. And it didn’t take much research to find out I needed a Mac, with PageMaker, and a LaserWriter.

This was a different era, not quite the hobbyist era, but the machines were not foolproof, unlike your iPad and iPhone. Not only did they crash, they might not reboot. The Mac wasn’t truly user-friendly for everybody until the introduction of Mac OS X, based on Unix with the Mach kernel.

Not that you need to know that, not that today you need to know how your car runs. But for almost all of my life, you had to have a rudimentary knowledge of how your automobile functioned, because it would break! Computers were even worse, although they rarely physically broke, they just stopped working.

And you had to figure out why.

That’s right, there was no Genius Bar, really very little tech help at all. You had to sit in front of the computer and figure out what was wrong, and it could take you hours…I found it nearly impossible to fall asleep until I’d solved the problem, gotten my computer back on the right track.

Needless to say, those are not these days.

2 So forty years ago…

Not only was there no internet, techies were considered nerds, geeks, they were not respected by the hoi polloi, who were infatuated by MTV. But once you got bitten…

I used to say it was like having a math problem on my desk. Only there was no test, I wasn’t graded, but when I figured it out the level of satisfaction…

And what the Macintosh could do, and what the PC could not!

So if you were around in those days, you’ll be intrigued, you will be riveted, because Pogue brings it all back. The system updates, which you had to go to the store at first to get. The step by step innovation. The dark years and then the renaissance.

Now this is not the first time this territory has been covered, but it has never been covered so well, because David Pogue is one of our own, he’s not only writing about the Mac, he LIVED the Mac!

The best books ever about the Mac and Mac products were authored by Pogue, and I used to buy the “Missing Manual”s and read them cover to cover. You’d be stunned how powerful these machines are, most only use a tiny faction of their ability.

And the software too.

I read all the manuals, also from cover to cover.

Do you know if you double-click the top of your window, it will shrink it down to the dock? I could list tons of tips, but most are not used and not cared about. It’s almost an insider’s game. But…

Those early days, do you remember Conflict Catcher?

All the breakthroughs and bumps in the road are catalogued by Pogue. In an upfront, breezy style. He makes Walter Isaacson’s Steve Jobs look like the doorstep it is. Content is secondary to readability, and Pogue is very readable. And as much as he knows to leave in, he’s not afraid of leaving a bit out. It’s a book. Made to be read from start to finish. If you do so, you’ll know Apple’s history.

But how many people need to know this?

3

Apple was the little engine that could. The true breakthrough was the iPod.

But before that, during Jobs’s hejira with NeXT…

The problem with Sculley was he was a marketer, of a completely different product. Pepsi could sit on the shelves for a while. Computers lost value every day they were held in inventory.

Also, Sculley was a publicity hog, who wrote a book and liked being perceived as a visionary, even though he was not. We see this story again and again, do not believe the hype. Which is easy to garner. Can you say “Theranos”? No, the true people to admire are those who are doing the work, whose names are out there, but oftentimes say no to press, it slows them down, never mind that the press always gets it wrong, ALWAYS! Because unlike Pogue, most writers are not familiar with the territory.

Was Jobs a terror?

Yes.

And he was milder when he came back.

But he had a vision, and he didn’t believe in consumer research. He was about the bleeding edge. A lot of this has been documented, which is why the second half of the book is less interesting.

As for Tim Cook and the players in power today…

Yes, the petty wars are delineated, but the real point is they are not superstars, they are not visionaries, those only come along once in a while.

Like a classic musician, Jobs is focused on getting it right, in a world where everybody is taught to compromise to get along, where no one wants to stand out, upset the apple cart. Jobs focuses on product, believing the rest will take care of itself.

And prior to his return and their replacement, those who sat on the board saw Apple as a traditional business. They wanted to sell it, before it cratered, before Jobs came back and reinvigorated it.

Now I remember one of the lessons I wanted to impart… Don’t underestimate expertise. We see this all the time in the music business, since you don’t need a degree to be in it, no one has any respect for those who work in it. Average citizens believe they can find talent, they can do ticketing. But again and again outsiders fail, because the expertise cannot be quantified, it is built over time, it’s something you feel, it’s something innate. Even as simple as picking the hits. I’d say at least ninety percent of what people e-mail me, saying it’s great and deserves further attention, does not. I’m not saying they can’t like it, but they don’t have the seasoning and the vision to know what will spread to the public.

But it’s not only in music, in politics people have contempt for expertise. There’s this belief everybody can do everything. Then why did it take Steve Jobs to come up with the iPod and iPhone?

Breaking rules all the while. Getting rid of legacy ports on computers, getting rid of the physical keyboard on the iPhone. People are attached to the past, and if you’re busy serving them you’re going to be left behind. Jobs knew the iPhone was going to destroy the iPod, but rather than keep the music player alive, Jobs insisted on pushing the envelope, he was not willing to rest on his laurels, giving competitors a window to leapfrog Apple.

Hell, me-too is everywhere. When was the last time you heard a successful record that was truly surprising, completely different? Labels don’t sign those acts anymore, it’s too heavy a lift. They want it easy. Just like the movie studios, whose lunch was eaten by Netflix. Let me see… You raise the prices, you make fewer movies in obvious genres and then you complain that the theatre experience is dying? Believe me, people will show up for something unique and different. Then again, something might have to percolate in the marketplace for a while to catch on, but these flicks play in theatres for a minute and are then available on TV, which is a better experience.

User experience. That was Jobs’s main focus. But in most avenues of life, this is denied. Purveyors are trying to whittle down and control human behavior, keep it in the past, which is a fool’s errand.

4

The press is all over Apple’s 50th.

But it’s kind of like a lifetime achievement award… Once you get that, you’re usually done.

I get a new iPhone every year. But recently, the changes have been miniscule, almost irrelevant.

Apple is making a ton of money on services, and maybe the days of hardware breakthroughs are done, then again, the days of tech wowing us died over a decade ago, now tech is the enemy.

But the story of going from Motorola to Intel to in-house chips… Once again, the company is always thinking about the future, whereas in entertainment, everybody seems to be constantly blind-sided. Kind of like George Bush and 9-11. Who could envision they’d fly planes into buildings?

Then again, entertainment executives are all about lifestyle, accumulating and displaying. The company is something to milk.

Oh, I just remembered another thing that struck me… This happened again and again, but foremost with the original Macintosh team.

Yes, Jobs asked for the theoretically unachievable, which they always delivered, but once the Mac was released…most of the members of the team were so burned out, they couldn’t work for months, if ever at this level again. Most left Apple. None set the world on fire once again. They’d been to the mountaintop, they’d experienced the ride and the rewards, they just weren’t up for doing it again, like a hit act that cannot create hits anymore.

There are a lot of lessons in Pogue’s book. Not that he bats you over the head with them. But almost no one is going to read this book. They might buy it, but the average punter just doesn’t care about the minutiae of tech, the history of creation. Kind of like cars. You may love Mercedes-Benz, Ferrari, but how many people want to go back seventy or a hundred years and hear about the arguments and decisions regarding what kind of engines and suspensions to use, the failures…

However, the thing about Apple is unlike any single car brand, unlike any musician, period, the company’s products and services touch a broad swath of the public. Sure, Android might be bigger internationally, but all the innovation is on the iPhone first, which has over fifty percent market share in the U.S.

And now with the MacBook Neo, Macs are no longer expensive. The last hurdle has been eliminated, you can enter the cult on the cheap.

And once you do…

You get locked in.

And the love for Apple sustains. This is not a musical act or TV show that ultimately peters out. We expect Apple to continue to deliver, to lead us into the future.

Did it miss AI?

I’m not even gonna get into it. Could be their philosophy of licensing turns out to be the best.

But one thing is for sure, Apple is not a one trick pony. So many use their products and they think they know what goes on inside the gold mine. In truth they don’t. And, in truth, they don’t really care that much, they have no need to know.

But if you do…

P.S. Don’t buy the e-book unless you’re going to read it on an iPad… There are numerous color photos.

~~~

Visit the archive:   http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/

@Lefsetz  http://www.twitter.com/lefsetz
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If you would like to subscribe to the LefsetzLetter

~~~

Originally published by Bob Lefsetz at the Leftsetz Letter

The post David Pogue’s Apple Book appeared first on The Big Picture.

We are all looking to make it. And we employ signifiers, status markers, to indicate that we’ve crossed the threshold, that we are no longer trapped amongst the great unwashed, that finally we are SOMEBODY!

And one of the main ways you felt settled, that you were not only on your way, but part of the firmament, was seeing your name in the news.

It’s a thrill when it first happens. You mean you want MY opinion, you want to write about ME? But as time goes by, you find out it’s meaningless, because everybody is expressing their opinion or promoting their wares all day long online, and your triumph gets lost in the shuffle.

I’m not saying there’s anything wrong with publicity, and sometimes it even gooses projects and careers, all I am saying is it won’t sustain a career. And longevity is everything today.

Used to be, very few people could make it. Could get a record deal, never mind get on the radio and become a star who can sell tickets. Whatever your innate talent, the work of a whole team enabled you to climb the ladder, which is why you see award winners constantly thanking their handlers.

But awards don’t mean much either. I hope you’re thrilled you won, but in a matter of months, seemingly no one remembers your victory. Furthermore, there are a lot of Grammy winners who make their money elsewhere, not in music, or have given up completely. That’s what an award is worth. So if that’s your goal…

I was reading the “Wall Street Journal” yesterday and saw that a friend was quoted. He’s not a public figure; I don’t think his inclusion resonated with a broad swath of the public. For a second there, I thought how they didn’t call me, but that’s just a step on the ladder, a momentary feel-good experience. Most people, after they’ve had that brush with publicity, feel good for a moment and have seen the return was relatively minimal, go back to doing the work.

And it’s all about the work.

Ah, that’s a cliché. Let me try to restate it in other words.

If you want to last a long time in today’s world, you’ve got to keep on creating, because there’s so much news and so much of it reaches so few people that most have already forgotten about you, if they knew about you in the first place.

There’s nothing wrong with a feature in the “Times” or the “Wall Street Journal”… But be wary, these outlets are never completely positive. That David Geffen documentary? The one on Jimmy Iovine and Dre? They were love letters, because THEY PAID FOR THEM! They know it’s all about control, kudos.

But if you give up control, beware.

However, let’s return to basics. Most people are looking to get noticed. They want to get out of the hole that they’re in. They want to throw the long ball; they want to believe there is some grand poohbah out there who can reach out and anoint them, and their career will be made. Today, this is patently untrue.

Let’s start with the number of news outlets.

I know, I know, I’ve lauded Apple News+, but if you read the general feed, your eyes will glaze over; it’s all clickbait headlines…and when you click through, there’s very little there.

You even get the same thing in Google News!

All these outlets fighting for attention have caused people to look elsewhere for information, first and foremost, their friends and family, real or those they’ve met online. It’s like we’re living in the 1800s, prior to modern communication methods. The mainstream has worn out its welcome, been excoriated by those who don’t agree with it, on both the left and the right, and has never meant less.

But we’re not talking about general news here, we’re talking about you.

You’re looking for a leg up; you’re looking for it to be made easier. IT’S NEVER GOING TO BE MADE EASIER! The major label can’t break you, if it will even sign you. Terrestrial radio can’t break you; it takes its clues from Spotify and other streaming media. And Spotify is a great democracy influenced by word of mouth, both online and offline. Social media can drive a hit more than terrestrial radio. But there’s no direct pipeline, no one you can pay to get millions of views.

So…

Paying for streams, for views on YouTube…unless your plan is to leverage these to make a deal with a larger entity, save your money. Your fans don’t care, and it’s only about your fans.

Now I’m not saying fans are irrelevant; it’s just that now there’s a direct conduit from you to them, and you must feed the beast, constantly. Your only hope of growing is via your fans, and if you’re not top of mind, they’re not going to do the work for you. And some fans spread the word, and some do not, and you don’t know who is who, so you have to keep spraying bullets and…

Sounds hard, doesn’t it?

It’s VERY hard.

Anybody can get noticed for a minute or two. Every week in the “Times” Sunday Style section, they hype a book or previously unknown person, and it’s almost like the kiss of death; they’re never heard from again.

TV entertainment news? If you think active consumers are even watching broadcast/cable TV, you’re dreaming. That’s not the bleeding edge, and those who make a difference, who change the world, are always harvesting information on the fringe.

So, you’ve got to keep on working, or you’re going to be forgotten. Most of the public does not know you’re a one-hit wonder, and there’s a tsunami of product, and you’re not going to get many streams in the future.

Now wait just a minute, you say… I won, I triumphed, I SUCCEEDED!

Maybe by old school metrics.

There’s no overlord with fairy dust spraying it on the lucky few.

No, you’re not only the creator, but you’re also the fairy too.

And be wary of getting away from your mission. That brand extension might be a mistake if it takes your focus from the core work, if it undercuts your credibility.

In other words, unless you’ve got a plan to get in quick and get out nearly as fast, the world has completely changed. It’s not about momentary vertical success; it’s about continuing to be in the landscape. For year after year after year.

If you’re doing this for an annum or two, before you go to graduate school, don’t even bother; go enroll at the academy. Because it takes longer than ever to gain a following, and you never quite know when you’ve made it, if you’ve made it at all.

Read the news. The trades. Look at who is featured, who is promoted, but don’t feel left out. That’s a moment in time. Used to be it was a rarefied world, only a few could get ink, now EVERYBODY can get ink.

That’s true. If you’re old enough, you’ll remember what a thrill it was to be on TV. You told your friends to look for you at the baseball game. Now you don’t even mention it, because it’s no big deal. The barrier to entry is so low that it’s not hard to get on TV, and so many of the people who cross that threshold are nincompoops. Why is it that the “Housewives” are always getting into legal trouble and getting divorced? If they were that rich, this wouldn’t happen. No, they believe if they are on these shows, they are stars, whereas truly they are laughingstocks, fodder for the machine. You know the number one rule of reality television…DON’T BE ON IT!

So it’s just you. In the wilderness. Trying to grow a fan base. Even a hit isn’t going to mean you’ve got a career. No, you must do foundational work, one-on-one. You must nurture your image, not do anything out of character. People need to be able to trust you. And what the press says or doesn’t say about you is essentially irrelevant. Certainly here today and gone tomorrow.

Of course, there are people who make it a full-time job to appear in the press, but that does not mean they’re rich, that they’ve even got a career, or even fans, just that some people see their names on a regular basis.

But so many still want to believe. That if they hire publicity and promotion people, if they get their name out in the news, they will be winning.

Today, winning is something you feel inside. No one else can claim victory for you. No one else can anoint you with pixie dust. There are social media influencers making more money than most of the people in the Spotify Top 50, even though very few know their names. Young people acknowledge this change; old people pooh-pooh it because they don’t like having their cheese moved, they don’t like the evisceration of rules. There must be rules, right?

There are no rules; you make it up as you go. And chances are those jumping the track, doing the out of the ordinary, never mind extraordinary, are going to win.

So if you’re railing against the system…

You’re the system. Only you. It all comes down to you.

Keep producing. Doesn’t matter what the general public thinks, just what your fans do. And if you’re good enough, you’ll grow a fan base and sustain it. But that’s too heavy a lift for newbies; they want someone exterior, in the firmament, to say they’ve made it, that they’re a star.

But that paradigm went out with the internet. And the internet’s been around for thirty years.

So it’s time to acknowledge where we are. A Tower of Babel world where you’re the act, the bus driver, the social media maven…one in which you wear all the hats, and if you want to have a conference, you look in the mirror.

But never forget, people are still looking for great, and there’s very little great out there. So if you are truly great, people will find and promote you…just don’t expect it to happen overnight.

~~~

Visit the archive:   http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/

@Lefsetz  http://www.twitter.com/lefsetz
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If you would like to subscribe to the LefsetzLetter

~~~

Originally published by Bob Lefsetz at the Leftsetz Letter

The post Lefsetz: Anybody Can Get Publicity appeared first on The Big Picture.

Why the Traditional Media No Longer Serves Our Needs
The Truth Matters, Chapter 1
Bruce Bartlett
Bartlett’s Notations, Feb 09, 2026

With the decimation of the Washington Post newsroom by billionaire Jeff Bezos, the crisis of the media seems to have reached an apex. I saw this coming in 2017 and wrote a book about it: The Truth Matters. Since I believe that the message of the book still resonates, I’ve decided to serialize it here on Substack. It’s a short book so it shouldn’t occupy too much of your time. Following is chapter one.

Key points:

· The fairness doctrine was obsolete and cannot be revived.

· Conservatives were underserved for many years by traditional media.

· Progressives were slow to embrace new media such as talk radio.

People have never been happy with the news media, always blaming it for lying, misinforming and being unfair to one side or the other. Thomas Jefferson expressed views on this subject that many people today no doubt would share. In an 1807 letter to John Norvell, Jefferson said,

To your request of my opinion of the manner in which a newspaper should be conducted, so as to be most useful, I should answer, “by restraining it to true facts & sound principles only.” Yet I fear such a paper would find few subscribers. It is a melancholy truth, that a suppression of the press could not more completely deprive the nation of its benefits, than is done by its abandoned prostitution to falsehood. Nothing can now be believed which is seen in a newspaper. Truth itself becomes suspicious by being put into that polluted vehicle. The real extent of this state of misinformation is known only to those who are in situations to confront facts within their knowledge with the lies of the day….

I will add, that the man who never looks into a newspaper is better informed than he who reads them; inasmuch as he who knows nothing is nearer to truth than he whose mind is filled with falsehoods & errors. He who reads nothing will still learn the great facts, and the details are all false.

The complaint that the news media have a built-in bias is an old one and there is truth in it. The major media have long been based in our major cities where people naturally tend to be more socially liberal. That has been one of the great attractions for living in cities rather than small towns and rural areas that tend to be socially conservative. Additionally, it’s a fact that people with a liberal disposition have tended to gravitate toward journalism as a profession, while conservatives gravitate elsewhere.

Media consolidation also tended to make it more liberal. In any town with more than one newspaper, one would usually be conservative if only for competitive reasons. Partisan affiliation and ideological compatibility in editorials, news judgement and among columnists was one reason people subscribed to a particular paper. But as newspapers have closed, those with a conservative bent tended to be the first to go because they were usually the afternoon papers. Those with no competition tend toward bland mushiness when it comes to politics.

Radio and television have always tended to be more even-handed because news presentation focused on breaking stories where audio or video was available. It didn’t lend itself to commentary or editorializing. Moreover, there was a government rule called the fairness doctrine that required both sides to be presented when political endorsements were made or opinions expressed. But the main effect of this rule was to discourage the presentation of any opinions at all, rather than waste precious air time presenting alternative viewpoints.

In 1987, the fairness doctrine was abolished. Many rue this day as the one when fairness itself began to disappear from the media. But the fairness doctrine never applied to the print media and it was already clear by 1987 that cable—CNN went on the air in 1980—was ushering in a new era of news coverage. It was untenable to maintain restrictions on over-the-air media that didn’t apply to print publications or cable. It’s likely that the fairness doctrine would have been struck down by the courts if it wasn’t repealed.

It is indisputable, however, that abolition of the fairness doctrine gave rise to talk radio. Developments in the radio market were also critical; the AM band had been suffering for years as the FM band was better suited to music. Rush Limbaugh was the first to recognize that the end of the fairness doctrine meant that he could do an entire show devoted to nothing but expressing his opinions, of which he had many, all strongly felt and vigorously expressed. The AM band was well-suited to talk and was cheaper than employing disk jockeys to curate music selections.

It’s perhaps an accident of history that a strong conservative like Limbaugh was first to recognize the political potential of talk radio. It was probably also true that conservatives were underserved by the liberal sameness of conventional journalism at the time. At least in his early years, Limbaugh was a genuine news source, giving national attention to stories, research and viewpoints that were hard to find elsewhere. Before him, the only national publications with a broad reach that reflected a conservative bent were the Wall Street Journal and Reader’s Digest.

Limbaugh’s success led to the creation of Fox News by Australian media mogul Rupert Murdoch, based on a vision long nurtured by Republican media guru Roger Ailes. With most television tilting a bit to the left, they cleverly positioned Fox in the middle of the political spectrum, which made it slightly to the right of its competitors.

The enormous financial success of conservative talk radio and Fox News stimulated growth of a vast conservative media network. Meanwhile, efforts to copy its success by progressives have uniformly failed. No one is quite sure why; it may be that those on the left are inclined to be satisfied with the traditional mainstream media. The problem is that it is dying a slow death. Something will replace it, we don’t know what just yet. Many analysts believe that virtually all print publications will disappear in a few years.

It may be that progressives have more to gain from developing new methods of acquiring news and information than conservatives, who seem very satisfied with the availability of compatible news and views on Fox, talk radio and the internet. But conservatives should avoid complacency. By having a closed-loop of news sources, they are more prone to deception by charlatans peddling conspiracy theories, fake news and extreme views far outside the mainstream. These are likely to be political albatrosses in the future.

In the long run, political parties and movements are best served by truth, accuracy and responsible news reporting. It may be that this needs to be subsidized in some way. The federal government has long done this by giving newspapers and magazines subsidized mailing rates; and radio and television stations were given extremely valuable spectrum for literally nothing. Legal requirements that certain public notices be published in local newspapers is another sort of government subsidy. Given the importance of a well-informed electorate to the functioning of democracy, it is not unreasonable to think that market forces alone may be inadequate to the job.

One idea I have had is to allow foundations and other groups to endow reporting positions at news organizations as has long been common for university professorships. Something like this is already being done at the Boston Globe, where local nonprofits are subsidizing the cost of employing a music critic, with the paper retaining full editorial control over the critic’s work.

Bruce Bartlett is a longtime observer and commenter on economic and political affairs in Washington, D.C., who has written for The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Politico, and many others. A bestselling author, his latest book is The Truth Matters: A Citizen’s Guide to Separating Facts From Lies and Stopping Fake News in Its Tracks.

His prior writings on the Big Picture are here,

@BruceBartlett

The post Bartlett: Traditional Media No Longer Serves Democracy’s Needs appeared first on The Big Picture.

So let’s say you want to buy a concert ticket. You search in Google and you see a multitude of offers. All from the secondary market, i.e. scalpers, i.e. brokers. And if it’s a superstar, you may have the ability to purchase a ticket to what is supposedly a sold out show. However, many times the secondary market is offering tickets when primary tickets are still available on Ticketmaster, AXS, whatever ticketing company the promoter is using.

Watch this video:

1. This is Rory Sutherland, an English advertising executive who proffers wisdom on TikTok. He didn’t sit down and try to become a famous influencer, it all happened by accident. During Covid one video of him was posted and the public was hungry for his insights and his following burgeoned. This is what we call “pull” instead of “push.” Pre-internet marketing was all about pushing things on people, making them aware of them and getting the public to buy/partake. However, to succeed in the internet world, people must desire you. Push doesn’t work. There are too many marketing messages which are transparent hucksterism and people are turned off. But when they find something they like, they want more and tell everybody about it. This is the essence of success. Something that has been lost in the music business. We’ve got all these acts complaining they’re not getting paid, but if they were great, the public would desire them, they would pull their songs and more, make them a success. But nobody wants to own the truth.

2. Earlier this week I sent a TikTok video of Big Jim’s review of Yang Chow, a restaurant in Chinatown that a group of us go to on a regular basis. One of the recipients said she was not on TikTok. To quote:

“I’m barely engaged in social media. I don’t want to spend more time watching people I don’t know and will never meet. I can barely keep up with my friends and family!”

This is an old school, Facebook/Instagram view of social media. That it’s all about connecting with old friends, people bragging, trying to create FOMO. But no, on TikTok, a lot of the videos are informational. You learn. The algorithm divines what you are interested in and serves it up. You know I’ve got a bug up my ass about this, but I will say it once again, to counter the tide of oldsters…I’ve never heard a youngster complain about TikTok. It’s the oldsters who think it’s the devil. Social media is like AI, it’s here to stay. Furthermore, it has distinct advantages. Why are all the Boomers and Gen-X’ers so self-satisfied? They were addicted to television, but when there’s a new platform they pooh-pooh it. It would be laughable if traditional news and the so-called elite didn’t rail against technology constantly. The internet is the best thing that ever happened to me, I’m connecting with you right now! I can find information in niches that was previously unavailable to me, I can connect with people all over the world. Please change your perspective and get a TikTok account, to watch the videos in this piece, if nothing else.

2.a. Big Jim is a restaurant reviewer who popped up in my feed. He tends to review holes in the wall, unknown places in the San Fernando Valley, the ones no one talks about. I haven’t heard of most of the locations, but he’s piqued my interest. However, he gives a positive review to everything. This is the video on Yang Chow:

So Google is a B2B enterprise where the consumer gets screwed. Here’s another Rory Sutherland clip that talks about this:

Bottom line… Google is in cahoots with advertisers who are oftentimes using subterfuge to make their money. Google doesn’t police this whatsoever. As a matter of fact, Google is proud of the fact that it’s all done automatically, online. But, the truth is Google has a responsibility to the consumer to deliver accurate information. However, the secondary market spends a fortune on ads with Google and the tech company looks the other way. The primary market is buried and can’t compete.

All this talk about the secondary market vs. the primary market… How can the primary market succeed if Google is helping the secondary, looking the other way?

The music industry must change its focus. It’s myopic, i.e. the secondary market is bad. It is, but it’s being enabled by Google, which should be shamed into changing its policy.

It’s not only concert tickets. Advertisers purvey all kinds of things for sale at exorbitant rates, far beyond the price the original seller is offering them at. But the original seller can’t compete, because these secondary market enterprises without the underlying costs of the original sellers spend a fortune on Google ads and dominate mindshare.

This can be changed.

Google said “Don’t be evil.”? It’s actively harming the concert industry, and many more verticals to boot!

~~~

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Originally published by Bob Lefsetz at the Leftsetz Letter

The post It’s A Google Problem appeared first on The Big Picture.

Note: The Big Picture has been re-publishing Bob Lefsetz’s work for over 20 years(!). His contrarian perspecitve is always insightful and unvarnished. This is Bob’s take on Tuesday’s election results… 

The story for me is how out of touch the press is.

The right said Trump had a mandate.

The left said the party had to run to the center.

And everybody in the pundit class, everybody in D.C., seemed to have no understanding of the mindset of the people. And the question arises, if the press is wrong on this, what else are they wrong on?

If you’ve made it all the way to TV or Congress, you’re pretty self-impressed; you ran the gauntlet and emerged victorious. But did you know that the median age of an MSNBC viewer is 72? This isn’t even your parents, this is your GRANDPARENTS! And this is my generation, and I’ve got to tell you, it’s as baked into its ways as the generations before it. We thought it would be different for boomers, after all, they had the greatest number of people and changed the world, but not anymore.

The world runs on tech and the internet, yet Andrew Cuomo spent double-digit millions on TV ads. Do you know anybody under thirty who watches traditional television, whether it be network or cable? Most don’t even have access, and they don’t care. If there’s a show worth seeing, and there are very few, it’s on a streaming outlet. As for the news, it’s at your fingertips online! As for the cable channels themselves, good luck finding one that has in excess of a million viewers, in a country of 340 million; a lot of these outlets don’t even have 100,000 people watching at one time. But because they’re part of the cable package old schoolers think they count, when they don’t. YouTube and TikTok count much more.

After the last election cycle, AOC told the Democratic Party to give her their campaign funds, that she knew how to spend them, unlike the establishment. She was talking about online… And two years later it’s even clearer. It’s nearly impossible to reach anybody, and if you want to make contact at all, you’ve got to do so online.

And if it’s not reported on Fox or in the “New York Times,” that does not mean it does not matter. Those outlets are still operating on the old paradigm of if they don’t report it, it doesn’t exist. We no longer need the imprimatur of an authority for a story to have legs; it can spread like wildfire without even making it to the so-called mainstream.

Sure, Mamdani had innovative policies that spoke to the issue of affordability, but his roots were planted online, with limited merch and gamification, and…until the primary last June, the mainstream had no idea of the size of his following. It’s about getting people excited with honesty and credibility, such that they will spread the word. Your only hope is virality. I don’t mean going nuclear, although that’s great, but engendering any word of mouth at all. If people don’t want to talk about you and what you’re doing, you’re dead in the water. The days of a media outlet shoving something down the audience’s throat to the point of success are done. Gatekeepers are history. You go directly to the audience. It’s a whole new ball game, one oldsters are not prepared to play, never mind that they don’t want to believe change has happened, and they’re out of date.

As for affordability… That’s all I heard on the cable channels today, both MSNBC and Fox. As if this were a revelation. Been to a grocery store recently? That’s all you’ve got to know. But if you’ve got enough money not to look at the receipt…you’re one of the chosen few, the masses are positively stupefied. Sure, inflation has calmed down, but grocery prices keep going up, it’s harder to make ends meet, and all we’re getting from both parties is platitudes, which the consumer can’t understand and don’t move the needle anyway.

D.C. is the land of no. Not only is there gridlock, no one wants any innovative legislation or action; they don’t want to take a risk. They believe in the status quo. But out in the hinterlands, the status quo went out the window long ago. Furthermore, change keeps happening, faster than ever. You might not be able to keep up, deciding you want to turn off the smartphone and see people face to face, but that just means you’re missing out, you’re losing touch with the pulse of the nation. What are the odds you’re hanging with those who have opposite opinions anyway?

As for the last election…

Can the Democrats just admit they f*cked it up? That Biden was too old and hung on too long, and the only people who wanted Harris anointed without a primary were Joe and Kamala herself? Democrats felt ripped off. They may hate the Democratic party, deservedly, but that does not mean they’ve given up on Democratic VALUES!

Immigration was a problem that the Democrats didn’t adequately address. The educated know that immigrants are less likely to commit crimes than citizens and they oftentimes do jobs citizens are unwilling to do. But that doesn’t speak to the UNFAIRNESS! The public is sick and tired of the rules being bent for everyone but them; they’re saying NO MAS! Which is part of what they said yesterday.

The media underestimated Trump’s power, his acolytes, his total vote in 2024 and they underestimated the margins of victory of Democrats yesterday. They’ve got their heads so far up their asses that they can’t see the truth, never mind that horse races get good ratings and they don’t like perceived in advance blowouts…who’s going to tune in for that?

Meanwhile, the right-wing media machine convinced Democrats that they should operate on the back foot, play defense, and that the Republicans were in charge of the agenda.

No one likes taxes. But people hate income inequality even more. And Trump is busy giving the rich breaks, never mind all the corporate titans coming to kiss the ring. As if one corporate titan equals a hundred thousand votes. These CEOs are no longer adored, they’re seen as whores ripping off the nation…and if you think they’re in touch with the nation… Zuckerberg may control Facebook, but that does not mean he’s knowledgeable about the conversation on his platform. Never mind everybody knowing the algorithm is f*cked, and showing you inflammatory stuff to keep you on. The public is not as stupid as you think.

But not everybody is informed. More people know more than ever before, as a result of the internet, but most people don’t get in the weeds; they vote on personality, on broad issues. But Biden and his ilk were wonks. Just make my life easy enough so I don’t have to think about you, so I can live my life without worrying about what is happening in government…that’s what people want.

So the lunatics have lost touch with the asylum. Yes, the elected officials, the government industrial complex, and the media enthralled to it. Want to know what is going on in America? You must be online hours a day, like youngsters. And if you decry this, you’re as out of touch as your parents, who hated the Beatles.

Can an aged congressperson play a video game, do they even know the names of them? Video games are bigger than movies, but all we’ve got is all this press about films whose grosses are declining.

I’d say it’s a disinformation campaign, but it’s really a misinformation campaign; reporters have no idea what is really going on! One fat cat opinion writer after another sits on his or her high horse and tells you what’s going on because they spoke with insiders…how about speaking with OUTSIDERS, you’d learn more, know what is going on more!

Then there’s this story:

“There are no hip-hop songs in the US top 40 for the first time since 1990”

www.nme.com/news/music/there-are-no-hip-hop-songs-in-the-us-top-40-for-the-first-time-since-1990-3905278

Now the “Billboard” chart itself is flawed, but we’re constantly told we live in a hip-hop nation, that rap rules. But it hasn’t meant this little in thirty-five years!

Just like the press tells us all about the antics of Taylor Swift, when the truth is most people just aren’t listening to her and just don’t care. And they’re listening to nobody more, except maybe Morgan Wallen, but this narrative doesn’t fit with the media’s agenda… The music scene today is more steel wool than clear windowpane. It’s messy, hard to decipher…but they keep anointing the past.

As for the new…

The media completely missed Zach Bryan on his way up.

So you have two choices. Either keep your head in the sand, believe in everything you were into previously, refuse to question your preconceptions, or…dive in knowing there are no clear answers, but he or she with the most information has the best understanding of what is happening in America, however flawed their viewpoint might still be.

I’m not saying to expect free and fair elections in the future, I’m not saying Trump’s march towards authoritarianism won’t proceed, but to think that the public is asleep and/or okay with the trajectory of our nation is just plain wrong. The public has been taking it up the a*s since the eighties, when tax rates were lowered and boomers became greedy. And they’ve been punched in the face multiple times thereafter, especially in 2008. People are both angry and disillusioned. They don’t care which party it is; neither is in touch with their feelings. Some will vote so the other won’t get power, but most people no longer believe in government, have no hope, in a completely changed world.

It’s not very complicated. The evidence is in plain sight. All you’ve got to do is connect with the great unwashed, whom the rich and those in power have contempt for. People believe in America, just not this America, they want CHANGE!

~~~

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Originally published by Bob Lefsetz at the Leftsetz Letter

The post Tuesday’s Election appeared first on The Big Picture.

You may not want to buy a new electric car, but when it comes to buying a used automobile…

America’s isolation is leaving it in a backwater. Especially when it comes to electric cars. If there were no tariffs on Chinese EVs, they’d wipe out the American manufacturers overnight, they’d dominate sales in the U.S. They’re that advanced, they’re that good, and they’re not that expensive.

But as a result of our present Administration, the focus is now on coal and traditional fossil fuels. And this has become a tribal issue. Elon Musk may make electric cars, but really, they’re for the coastal elites who believe climate change is real.

But your beliefs are no challenge to your pocketbook.

Used EVs are a stealth incursion into the market; they’re how electric cars are going to come to dominate the U.S. fleet. While GM and Ford are icing their EV investments/production, and as conventional wisdom leads people to choose hybrids, the supposed best of both worlds, everybody is ignoring the obvious…

EVs REQUIRE ALMOST NO MAINTENANCE!

If you follow the news, used EVs are selling prodigiously, at prices below those of equivalently aged used gasoline vehicles.

Now, in the past, you didn’t want to buy a used EV; the technology was moving too fast. Which is why those with bucks lease their electric cars…I mean what are the innovations right around the corner, how long are the companies going to support the software?

But we’ve hit maturity in batteries. In excess of 300 miles per charge is de rigueur, never mind the Chinese offering more for less with a new technology.

Now, as a result of this belief in innovation, a zillion cars are coming into the market after the expiration of three-year leases. And they’ve become too attractive to pass up. That’s how cheap they are. And people who would never have considered an electric car are purchasing them. And once they drive them and don’t encounter the endless repairs of a typical used car…

Word of mouth will spread, and everybody will want a used electric vehicle.

Buying a used vehicle, which is where all the action is, because the average price of a new one is over 40k, is a crapshoot. It’s just a matter of when they’re going to need maintenance. Some expected, some not.

There’s the new timing chain somewhere between sixty and a hundred thousand miles. And that’s not cheap, but you can foresee that.

But the other items…

Every car I’ve taken over 100,000 miles has needed a new radiator.

I mean, every car needs new brakes at some point, but a new fuel pump? New injectors? You’re buying a time bomb when you purchase a used car, what if this was not the case?

That’s the story with eclectic cars. The batteries are good for 300,000 miles or more. You’re not going to have any engine repairs; there are almost no moving parts.

As for a hybrid… It’s really the worst of both worlds. You think you’re winning, but the bottom line is your machine still has a gasoline engine, which needs traditional maintenance and is subject to breakdown. WHO WOULD WANT THAT?

A lot of ignorant buyers.

This is like digital photography. We heard it was coming for the better part of ten years. But it never did. Kodak continued to flourish. But seemingly overnight, digital photography took hold. Same is going to happen with electric cars.

So someone complains to you about the repairs to their car, but you’re going to tell them you have no problems, because you drive an electric car.

All the focus has been on NEW electric automobiles, whereas the penetration, the growth, and the ACCEPTANCE are going to come from USED electric automobiles.

As for running out of juice:

“See How E.V. Road Trips Went From Impossible to Easy”

“Long drives that were once effectively impossible with an electric car have become doable. Routes that once required careful planning now have abundant fast chargers.”

And the pace of charger installation has picked up:

“America Keeps Adding EV Chargers. Will There Be More Drivers to Use Them?”

As for Chinese battery technology:

“Five-Minute EV Charging Is Here, but Not for U.S.-Made Cars”

CATL’s and BYD’s rapid-charging technologies underscore China’s dominance in the EV sector, a technological priority for Xi Jinping”

You can’t stop the hands of progress. You can bury your head in the sand, but that does not mean that time does not march on, that innovation ceases.

This is what the public wants… Not electric cars per se, but maintenance-free USED CARS!

You hear the story all the time… My car broke down and I have no way to get to work. Or my car broke down, and I don’t have the money to fix it. Those complaints are kaput with electric cars. Who wouldn’t want a used electric car?

Sure, they won’t have the latest innovations, but neither does your used gasoline car. And they may not be able to get the latest software, but the old software is good enough to keep them running.

All this news about the death of the electric car because of the elimination of governmental subsidies is just plain wrong. There are now enough used electric vehicles in America to create a market… People are clamoring for them. And what sells everything these days is word of mouth, and word of mouth on used electric cars is about to become DEAFENING!

~~~

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~~~

Originally published by Bob Lefsetz at the Leftsetz Letter

The post Used EVs: Modern Cutting Edge Bargains appeared first on The Big Picture.

Bob Lefsetz:

We tend to think life has an on/off switch. You’re either alive or your dead. But it rarely goes down that way.

We thought our classic rock stars were forever. Until they weren’t. They were going to go on tour, maybe walking and playing a bit more slowly, singing in a lower key, but they’d be right there on stage and then POOF, they’d’ be gone.

Happened with Jeff Beck. And then there are acts that are sick but unless you’re inside the circle you don’t know, like Glenn Frey and Jimmy Buffett. The former died before his time, at age 67, which may seem old to many, but not to today’s baby boomers. Glenn was ripped-off. Then again, you can’t fight father time and you can’t fight your genes. Sure, bad behavior can shorten your life, you can become a member of the 27 Club, but oftentimes you’re just minding your own business and…that twinge, that symptom that you think will go away doesn’t and suddenly you find yourself on the wrong side of the line. Happened to Peter Frampton. Who gets kudos for going on record about it, because most men do not.

What exactly was Donald Trump rambling about at West Point yesterday? Now he’s got those on the left wondering about dementia. Can you really attribute it to the weave? Are we seeing the Donald decline in plain sight like we did Joe Biden, with all his supporters and inside acolytes denying what we see with our own eyes as if they’re sweepers on a curling sheet?

Then there are the six Democratic members of Congress who passed in the past year. Can happen to anyone, but odds are it will happen more to the aged. Seventy is not the new forty, fifty or even sixty. Your attitude can’t fight genetics. We have better health care, but everybody deteriorates over time. It’s a shock, assuming you’re tested. I had a clear carotid artery scan in the nineties, but not recently. And when I bring it up to most people, even those with heart attacks in their families, they almost all say they’ve never even had this test. They’d rather live in ignorance, believing they’re going to last forever, like Warren Zevon, who might have been saved if he’d gone to the doctor earlier, but he didn’t.

So we’ve been laughing for decades about the Stones. You’d better go see them now because it could be the last time. But they keep keepin’ on. We expected Keith to go first, but out of the blue Charlie died, the Big C got the drummer, and it could get you too.

But you don’t believe it. And you believe if you’ve got it you’re going to fight it, even though science says otherwise. Your mental attitude has nothing to do with your results/possible recovery. Not a thing. You go through the course of treatment and you see what happens. And the weird thing is the person on the precipice usually makes peace with their passing just before they go, even though those who remain cannot.

But life goes on. That’s the amazing thing. LBJ was sworn in on the plane back from the assassination of JFK. Nobody is indispensable, everybody is expendable, we circle the wagons, squeeze into your space and go on, not because we’re a*sholes, but because that’s the nature of being human, it’s in our DNA to survive.

As for Billy Joel… For a long time he was like Meat Loaf, an absolute icon on the east coast, but not so much on the west. They never played “Paradise by the Dashboard Light” on the radio in Los Angeles, never mind most not knowing who Phil Rizzuto was. But Marvin Lee Aday is gone now. Covid got him. He refused the vaccine. I bet he’d take it now if he had the chance.

But we all get to rule our lives the way we want to. And we think this is a privilege, freedom, but in truth many are slackers, they don’t have enough money or enough character to take care of themselves. To dot the i and cross the t, to go to the dentist and doctor on a regular basis. If you’re poor you live less long, those are statistics, but we live in a world where no one believes them anyway, everybody believes they’re going to live forever.

All of my friends do, everybody in their seventies. Whether retired or not. There’s endless roadway before the sun sets. Only there’s not. Whether it be by accident, like with Dave Shapiro, or bad luck, like with Michael Leon. But everybody convinces themselves their situation is different, that they’re immune.

And despite all this talk about the aged constantly discussing their health, generally speaking men do not. They don’t admit their failings. How are you doing? GREAT! But then you dig beneath the surface, peel back the layers. and if they’ve gone to the doctor you find out this is untrue, their body is deteriorating, it’s got flaws, but they don’t want to admit it.

First it was the acts that made it in the sixties. Now it’s those who peaked in the seventies, even eighties. They’re falling off the radar screen.

But what’s worse is most of them will never be remembered, most of them are unknown by the younger generations. Those records you bought, those shows you went to, they don’t know and they don’t care and if you’re judging them for it let me quiz you on your parents’ music, I doubt you’ll know much.

So Billy Joel… He’s been married and divorced more than once. He’s been ripped-off, losing almost all of his money. He had a bad motorcycle accident. But he’s always bounced back, always.

Billy finally broke in L.A. with “My Life” in 1978. And he was one of the few classic acts who got on MTV and stayed there, Billy was a staple.

But then he decided to record no new music.

But something funny happened along the way. With no hits, his rep got even better. He went on tour with Elton John, dueling pianos, implying that he was just as big as the English star, and then he wasn’t performing that much and then he started to do big shows, even stadiums, and playing Madison Square Garden every month and…

Those MSG shows were not rote. He switched up the numbers, he had guest stars, they were positively alive. Which is kind of strange for such a big stage, most people are afraid to do this, but Billy became comfortable in his own skin, and he became even more self-deprecating, people love it when you have a sense of humor about yourself. Furthermore, he still had his chops, go to the show and you’ll be amazed. But will you be able to go anymore?

It’s not exactly clear from the stories in the press. We learned that performing made his condition worse and now he’s going to physical therapy and I’ve got no idea how this plays out, but there’s a chance you’ll never be able to see Billy Joel on stage ever again. And if you haven’t and want to, you’ll feel ripped-off.

Yes, that joke about the Stones is now true. This truly could be the last time.

It’s astounding that these old dudes (and it’s almost all males) can still ply the boards. Mick Jagger is still dancing, yet he had heart surgery. But what else are they going to do, stay home? Then again, Mick Ralphs has been in a nursing home for the better part of a decade. His playing is still stellar on the recording of “All the Young Dudes,” but he can’t play it on stage anymore. And the man who wrote it, David Bowie, will have been gone for ten years in January.

It’s a wake-up call. Then again, I seem to be the only one who wants to be conscious when I’m dying. Everybody I know wants to die in their sleep. I don’t get that. You’re alive and kicking and then you don’t wake up, having no idea that it was your last day on earth? No, I want to see it coming.

But no one sees the end of the classic rock performers coming.

Oh, they talk about it, about how their business will be missed, but now there are younger acts that can sell out stadiums.

It’s all going down the drain. It’s the nature of life. You can get plastic surgery, go on a GLP-1 and look just marvelous, but that does not change your DNA and the attrition of age.

Everybody’s in denial. Joe Biden believed he could rule until he was 86. Now it looks like he probably won’t even live that long. And we were supposed to believe too. In this artifice.

No one lives forever. Everything falls away. Billy Joel is 76. Your mom might be in her nineties, as mine was before she passed, but my dad died at 70. Sure, there are spry septuagenarians out there, but a ton are dying too.

But no one wants to talk about this, everybody wants to put on a brave face. Like I said, everybody thinks they’re going to live forever, but this is not the case.

So, if you’re in your seventies, don’t keep pushing your desires into the future. If you want to see that act, go NOW, because you may never be able to again. As for spending your money, and hopefully you have some, financial advisors will tell you one of the biggest hurdles they must overcome is convincing their clients to spend their money. Sure, if you want to save it and give it to your progeny, fine, but if you’re denying yourself…

As for medical breakthroughs… Good luck now that Trump has excised employees and wants to hold back money for research at universities. You want to pay no additional taxes, but believe me, on your deathbed, you’ll wish there was a cure.

I hope there is for Billy Joel. The last time I saw him was at the Hollywood Bowl, and I couldn’t ask for anything more, he was as good as he could have possibly been.

And I play his “Songs in the Attic” LP on a regular basis, it’s emblazoned upon my brain.

But that might be the only place it lives in the future.

“I don’t need you to worry for me ’cause I’m all right”

But fifty years later we are worried. Billy is no longer spry and neither are we.

“I don’t care what you say anymore this is my life
Go ahead with your own life, leave me alone”

That’s one thing you realize as you get older, we’re all equal. And we all excel in certain areas. We may not be able to play and sing like Billy Joel, but we might be able to fix the toilet or the computer or do a whole host of other things. That was your life. And in most cases, other than your family and a few friends, you’re being left alone.

But it’s art that brings us together. And nothing so much as musicians. They sing their life, which we identify with. They make us feel connected, they give us a reason to live. They’re off on the horizon and we keep trying to get closer to them.

But ultimately it’s a mirage. They’re gone. You think you know them but you never really did. Can we really ever even know another person?

But there’s nothing worse than being alone.

All those acts from way back when, they were ubiquitous in a way today’s acts are not. EVERYBODY who was conscious in 1978 knows “My Life,” whether they liked it or not, you could not escape it.

Yes, some people hated Billy Joel, but all these years later…

The same people who hated the Carpenters now love them.

But they pushed Karen over the edge.

We all are just dust in the wind.

But that’s more than a song.

This leaving…I don’t know where to put my emotions, which are palpable, if for no other reason than no one else admits to having them.

Maybe they do.

But maybe the only way we can connect is through the records.

Those classic rock tracks. They were more than songs, they were life itself.

But the candle does not burn forever, at some point it either burns down to nothing or gets snuffed out.

Hopefully yours won’t get snuffed out before your time.

But it could happen, never forget that.

P.S. If you type “my life lyrics” into Google (sans the quotation marks) you get J. Cole’s song from 2021, and if that doesn’t prove the point…

~~~

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~~~

Originally published by Bob Lefsetz at the Leftsetz Letter

The post Billy Joel: My Life appeared first on The Big Picture.

“THEY ARE THE CHAMPIONS: Word has it that Sony Music has prevailed in the contest for Queen’s https://queenonline.com/recording and publishing rights and their attendant revenue—including that from the Disney deal—for which House Stringer and Platt has reportedly tendered the winning offer of a cool 1 billion pounds sterling. Disney, which owns the recording rights in North America thanks to the 1990 deal that cost the Mouse $10m, has hitherto paid a handsome royalty to Queen; that will go to Sony under the new deal. Income from the licensing deal with UMG for the rest of the world will similarly go to Sony when that deal expires in 2026 or 2027, at which point SME will become the worldwide distributor and owner of all content.” –Hits Daily Double

I don’t really care. I’m burned out on these gigantic catalog sales. But maybe this is important, maybe this isn’t just a banking deal, maybe Sony has insight that is not being acknowledged.

Bear with me here.

The bottom line is we are not minting new superstars. So the value of old superstars goes up! If everybody knows your name, in an era where that’s nearly impossible to accomplish, think of the value!

At Canadian Music Week Don Passman said he advises his clients not to sell. Most people regret it. But if it’s for estate planning…

But the dirty little secret is although Bryan May is 76, Roger Taylor is 74 and John Deacon is only 72! They could live for another three decades.

Or die tomorrow, but…

When it comes to money, the financiers are always smarter than you are, ALWAYS! This is their business. Running the numbers, making bets. Your business is making music. How many times have you gotten screwed in your career? If you haven’t been screwed, you’re not successful.

As for getting the money now… You’ve got a steady stream of income, what are you going to do with the cash? Put it in the bank and you’re LOSING money! Everything else is inherently risky, much more risky than the royalties of a superstar act.

And we’ve seen this movie over and over again. Michael Jackson beat Paul McCartney in a bidding war for Beatles copyrights and they ended up being worth more than ten times the purchase price. How about Colonel Parker selling Elvis’s catalog?

As for your advisors… It’s very hard to turn down a payday, it’s human nature. It takes a special kind of person to give up their commission on a big sale. So beware of people pushing you into selling.

But assuming you’re out, where does that leave the purchaser?

Let’s be clear, this Queen deal is not only the songs, like with Hipgnosis and the rest of the new publishing giants. Sony is buying EVERYTHING! And with total control of all the assets comes power. You can maximize the value.

Irving Azoff’s company buys the Beach Boys. Let me ask you, is the Beach Boys’ music ever going to evaporate? Not only is it steady, we’re just one revival away from a burst of notice and revenue. Could be a TikTok, a film usage, there’s a giant catalog of instantly catchy hits, the band is the sound of the summer, and nobody has ever come close. Song of the summer today? God, even Spotify now has a playlist, but odds are you haven’t heard most of the songs and don’t care, it seems the only people who truly do care are the press and the acts and their handlers who are on said list. The rest of us ignore it, if we’re even aware it exists.

But Bob Dylan? Just like we never got a new Beatles, we never got a new Bob Dylan. So buying the songs was a good idea. However Universal does not own the recordings.

Bruce Springsteen sold absolutely everything to Sony. I’ll posit that the Boss is less universal than Queen. He doesn’t even go clean everywhere. But “Born to Run” is an anthem. And when Bruce dies, he’ll become an even bigger icon, because we’ve never gotten a new Bruce and what Bruce represents is impossible to find in today’s marketplace. Honest musician, who can sing, write and play, who’s never sold out to the man who is singing from his heart about life in these United States. He’s one of a kind, like with Queen, he’s just one placement from ubiquity.

That’s what happened with Queen. “Wayne’s World.” Period.

Just like Journey and “The Sopranos.” Journey headlines stadiums without even the real singer of their hits! The hits have eclipsed the band! Think of the value there. And there wasn’t only one hit, but many.

But Queen is unique. From an era when that mattered, when me-too was anathema (in sound, not behavior). The band melded prog rock with straight rock without synthesizers and had hits as varied as not only
“Bohemian Rhapsody,” but “Crazy Little Thing Called Love” and “We Are the Champions” and “We Will Rock You.” The breadth alone gives the band gravitas.

In other words, Queen is selling too low. Sure, the band is getting the money now, but in a world of niches, everybody knows Queen. And as stated above, Queen has a unique identity.

Not everybody is forever, but there are many more that still own their rights. I mean if Queen is worth a billion, then the Eagles are worth at least two. Then again, over Henley’s dead body. By not maximizing the value of the catalogue, Henley and the Eagles have increased it! Proving once again, if you’re willing to leave money on the table, there are bigger paydays down the road.

Now supposedly Sony is going to maximize the asset, the virtual ABBA show has been bandied about as an example. That was an incredibly heavy investment. But if Queen is selling all those tickets with a fake lead singer and sans Deacon’s bass playing… Think of the demand!

The rich get richer and the poor struggle for recognition, never mind remuneration.

And maybe you’re not rich enough to maximize the value yourself. Which might argue for having a partner. But if you sell out completely and there’s a huge jump in revenue…your image, your legacy is burnished.

Some of these acts already have enough money. They’re very interested in lasting.

And think of the acts further down the totem pole. Get the right team involved and they can be much bigger than they are today. Because no one is minting new superstars! So the old stars become even BIGGER!

It goes really deep. Kids are turned on to the classics by their parents. By Disney. The rights holder doesn’t even have to do any marketing, it can just lay back and collect the cash. But work it just a bit… Hell, what was the value of Kate Bush before and after the use in “Stranger Things”?

The paradigm has shifted. Yes, it used to be that most acts’ value, their revenue, decreased over time. But today, in many cases it goes up! Because there’s no one else in their league.

Sure, advertisers have paid handsomely for catalog in the past, but now movies and streaming shows… They want to use tracks everybody knows, how many of those are there?

Sony could be sitting on a gold mine. That they bought cheaply.

Music is not tech. It doesn’t lose its value with new innovation, rather when done right it is unique, stands alone, and if not fresh, is emblematic of the times.

Furthermore, it all comes down to the song, it always comes down to the song. You can’t sing most of the Spotify Top 50, which means the odds of those songs lasting are low. It’s only when the public can sing along, with or without the record, when the melody and the chorus and the riff stick in their head, that the endless pot of gold is developed.

And they said Napster ruined the recorded music industry, that no one would pay for music again. EVERYONE is paying. Sure, you might get it for free on YouTube, but the rights holder is being paid. And you might listen for free but go to the show and buy merch and…

The future’s so bright I gotta wear shades!

~~~

Visit the archive:   http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/

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Originally published by Bob Lefsetz in the 06/21/2024 at the Leftsetz Letter

The post Queen’s Catalog: $1 Billion Dollars… appeared first on The Big Picture.

Spotify:

YouTube:

Do they think we’re deaf? Why can’t they leave well enough alone?

And going straight to the heart of the matter, John would have HATED this record. After the Beatles, John wanted to strip things down and make them more impactful. His vocal was up front and the records tended to be simple, even if produced by Phil Spector. Hell, listen to “Instant Karma,” that crunchy drum sound, but mostly John’s insightful and obvious yet with all his personality vocal. Talk about a killer track, you only have to hear it once to get it, and I’ve never changed the channel when I’ve heard it on the radio.

Yes, the first real solo album, “Plastic Ono Band” was a cry from the heart. The opposite of a Beatles record. Underproduced.

And sure, “Imagine” had strings, you could even say it was sappy, but it was by no means vanilla mush, like “Now and Then.”

John wanted his records to be visceral. And even when he worked with Jack Douglas on his final project… Hell, listen to “Beautiful Boy,” it’s heartwarming, whereas “Now and Then” is dreary. And there’s a reason it was just a demo, because John didn’t want it out!

I mean in a collection of dreck, like those “Anthology” albums of thirty years ago, sure, include it if you want to. But come on, did you listen to those CDs more than once, if once? You were excited, yet there was a reason this stuff was left on the cutting room floor. But there was a movie, there was hoopla, why not cash in with a record! After all, it’s just about the money.

And as they get older, sometimes rock stars display their true values, and it’s not pretty. There’s a great story in today’s “Los Angeles Times,” and if we still lived in the pre-internet era, it would be read by everybody in the industry, it would make an impact, now it’s just crickets. Hell, seemingly everybody I know has canceled the “Los Angeles Times.” My shrink, who gets the “New York Times” and the “Wall Street Journal.” My physical therapist’s husband switched to the “Daily News,” that’s the San Fernando Valley “Daily News,” because the L.A. “Times” no longer prints the box scores. This is how you fail as a business. Put the bottom line first. Keep cutting and cutting until even your core abandons you.

Anyway, here’s the LA Times article, “The unmasking of the narcissistic, conspiracy-spreading baby-boomer rock star”:

John Lennon is lucky, his image is frozen in time. There were no late age compromises, faux pas, he was credible, true and honest, hewing to his values until the very end. The only penalty is that he’s gone.

And by releasing this travesty of a number… It does nothing for John’s image, does nothing for the Beatles’ image, but it is the holiday season and we’ve got to sell something…

Even worse, there will be no impact. There was press, and boomers might check it out, but radio won’t go on it, that’s not what Top Forty does anymore, they don’t play this kind of music, and Top Forty is the only format that moves the needle.

As for TikTok, “Now and Then” is so dreary no one would set a video to it.

When John sings: “I know it’s true,” that’s magical. But the changes are not. And then there’s an errant piano, a chunking rhythm section, anything but defined, anything but clear. Sounds like ELO and Jeff Lynne, a wash of sound, anything but distinct, the opposite of not only John’s solo output, but the Beatles’ too.

And then the strings come in, A seesaw “Lady Madonna” effect sans the magic. They come out of nowhere. They distract, not add.

And then comes the second verse and the superfluous guitar figures in the background, this is when it really turns into dreck. If you make it past this I give you credit.

Now it’s a drag, the kind of song you stop singing, and then those sawing guitars over a lame vocal change that is overwhelmed by the instrumentation, and then an ELO chorus. If John heard this he’d be like the Nazi in “The Producers,” he’d be standing up screaming that the people involved don’t know him or his music, this is one of the reasons he left the damn band to begin with.

Talk about losing the plot… Didn’t anybody involved blow the whistle, say this was a bad idea? That there was no reason to tarnish the image of the band that got it right from beginning to end?

“Free as a Bird” was bad enough. I’m trying to think of a worse Beatles song, but I can’t. At least the slight songs of yore contained magic. As for magic, there’s absolutely none in “Now and Then,” I mean why cut it at all? If you don’t think this is the worst Beatles cut ever, you’ve got no ears.

And then you have the brain dead press saying how great it is. This is the problem with the hype industrial complex, it’s got no soul, no powers of discrimination, it’s afraid of the haters, so it just hypes crap to high heaven that the public instantly forgets anyway. Hell, you might talk about “Now and Then” during Thanksgiving dinner, but you certainly don’t want to play it, unless there’s someone who hasn’t heard it and doesn’t know what you are talking about.

By Christmas “Now and Then” will be completely forgotten. Drowned in the tsunami of crap coming across the transom every single day, hour and minute. “Now and Then” only got traction because of the still reigning power of the Beatles. But this detracts from the image.

As for the movie:

It’s extremely well done. But George looks positively awful. McCartney is the only one of the three who hasn’t aged. I mean can’t you leave our memories intact? We didn’t want our heroes to get old, but now it’s slammed in our face. Do you think George would have allowed this footage if he were still alive? Absolutely not. Image is everything.

So the film is alternately both fascinating and creepy. You can check it out, but it won’t leave you with a good feeling.

And who cares that we now have technology that can…

Why don’t we fix the Sistine Chapel? Go back and resurrect everything that was cast aside as imperfect, not quite good enough in the past? You don’t mess with the classics, that’s heresy.

As for the godawful remixes of the Beatles albums, always with an excuse, that the original stereo mixes were rushed, which Geoff Emerick, the original engineer, told me was patently untrue, they’ve now become the standard online, indistinguishable from the originals unless you’re truly paying attention. How can this be, how can you mess up the legacy of the biggest group in history, which will last far beyond its demise? Taylor Swift recutting her originals is heinous, they don’t sound the same, but no one will be listening to her crap a hundred years from now. And her motivation was the same as the Beatles’, money. Oh, that’s right, she was on a vengeance trip too. At least the Beatles haven’t devolved to that.

And you listen to McCartney’s voice-over in the movie and and at first you think hmm, he’s pretty with it, he sounds good, maybe Biden isn’t too old. And then as it goes on and you continue to listen you realize that Paul has lost a step, that he is old, that he’s not the same, you can hear it right in his voice.

And this is a Paul production, his fingers are stamped all over it. Which is why John Lennon would hate this record. The great Beatles songs were such because of the push and pull of the two. But Lennon got no say here, they just laid crap upon his vocal… It’s John who has something to lose. He can’t record a new number to cover this abomination, this stinker that leaves a bad taste in our mouths.

And you ask why I care. Why we all care. And that’s exactly the point. If you lived through Beatlemania, you know it was different. Swiftmania isn’t in the same league. The Beatles were everywhere and impacted us all. You can go through life never hearing a Swift cut, but the Beatles? They were omnipresent, they dominated radio when radio was king. They got all the guys to grow their hair, they got us all to buy electric guitars. Come on, look at all the musicians who say they started because of the Beatles.

The Beatles were progenitors. Everything they did rang true.

But not “Now and Then.”

~~~

Visit the archive:   http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/

@Lefsetz  http://www.twitter.com/lefsetz
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~~~

Originally published by Bob Lefsetz in the 11/03/2023 at the Leftsetz Letter

The post Now And Then appeared first on The Big Picture.

I don’t know anyone who will buy another Tesla. And I know a lot of people with Teslas, and they LOVE their Teslas!

But they don’t like Elon Musk.

If you’ve been following the news, it’s getting hard to sell electric cars. The Big 3, not so big anymore, are slowing development and production. Which is the exact wrong thing to do, because that will only put them further behind when the revolution comes, and it’s inevitable, and it will be gradual, then all at once.

Gasoline cars are a right wing cause célèbre. They don’t like that the government is subsidizing electric cars, even though it subsidizes oil companies, and electrics are seen as a left wing thingy, and if the left loves them, the right hates them.

Now don’t tell me I’m pulling this out of my rear end, I’ll just point you to this recent story in the “Wall Street Journal,” and it’s a free link:

“Electric Cars Were Already Having Issues. Then Things Got Political. – The 2024 race for the White House reignites debate over EVs”

Electric cars were the new new thing. Early adopters were status seekers and the environmentally conscious and the Model S and then the Model X were expensive. It was a rarefied air, it was a luxury item, and it burnished your image if you had one. And anybody who did have one couldn’t stop talking about it. The acceleration, the lack of regular maintenance.

And then came the Model 3. Suddenly everybody could get in on the action. And they did. Tesla sold through its inventory and the stock went up and up and then…

The Chinese ramped up. Just like TikTok is the biggest competitor of Netflix, BYD and the other Chinese car companies are the biggest threat to Tesla. And other than Tesla, every other manufacturer’s sales are in the toilet in the People’s Republic.

Now if you’re a record company or a movie company, you don’t think about the future, you believe it will never come, you love your fat salary and believe you can litigate upstarts away.

Well, that didn’t work out so well, almost all of recorded music revenue now is from streaming. Spotify is excoriated and vinyl is venerated, but the latter is a de minimis part of overall revenue. But vinyl is sexy. It’s physical, it’s big, it’s retro, it’s cool.

Tesla was cool, but it’s not anymore.

The rest of the auto industry got on the electric bandwagon, but the truth is not one single company is in the league of Tesla when it comes to technology. Kia and Hyundai are the only ones close, but they do not use the Tesla charging system, and that is everything.

Detroit thought consumers were stupid. That they’d keep paying more and more for SUVs, which is why Stellantis has a huge inventory of overpriced Jeeps. I mean 100k for a Jeep? Did anybody ever see Jeep as a luxury brand?

And since there’s more profit in trucks and SUVs, Detroit convinced the public to buy one, even though they drive worse than sedans, but you get to sit up high and impress your neighbors! Idiotic.

And then came Tesla.

Think of Tesla as a software company. Period. Tesla built its electric cars from the ground up. Every other manufacturer, except the aforementioned Koreans and VW, bolted electric on to a gas body/chassis. They could say it was electric, but it made no sense. All they were selling was sex. And Volkswagen started early, from scratch in the wake of Dieselgate, but still can’t get the software straight.

So not only does Tesla have a first mover advantage, no one else is even close, not in electric cars. I’d like to say otherwise, but it is untrue.

So you go into the dealership and you ask yourself, do I want to buy a car with a 220 mile range, and pay handsomely for the privilege? Even Porsche can’t get the range right. As for Lucid, it’s overweight and overpriced. And Rivian is in serious trouble. And who wants to buy a car that’s going to run out of fuel/energy?

Early adopters, but that ship sailed. Yes, there was a small scrum of people who would overpay to be the first purchasing Detroit and European electric iron, and that ran out.

And then Elon Musk lowered the price.

Today you can buy a Model 3 for the same price as a gasoline car. After incentives, there’s no premium. But Tesla can no longer sell as many as it makes, because of Elon Musk. Let’s just call it the X-factor.

And the competitors don’t use Tesla’s charging network, which has had years of development and truly eliminates range anxiety. Whereas the builders of infrastructure for competitors has been done by sleazy independents who if they even build charging stations, they’re oftentimes broken. The story is everywhere, you calculate how long to the next charging station, you finally limp in, and the charger doesn’t work.

Tesla’s charging network is seamless. It exists, it doesn’t break, and the transaction is all done on your phone. Competitors have realized Tesla’s superiority, so they’ve jumped to Tesla’s system, but it’ll take a few years for them to produce compatible cars.

And then there’s Toyota. Caught behind the 8-ball on electric cars, way behind, and therefore Toyota says everyone wants hybrids. That’s been the building story for a month, people want hybrids, but they’re not ready for electric. But that’s complete b.s.

Electric cars are no longer cool, Elon Musk eviscerated all of Tesla’s coolness.

The charging network sucks for Tesla’s competitors.

Gasoline and hybrid were cheaper than electric.

Why in the hell would you buy an electric car?

Oh, there are many reasons. But the public is ignorant, and doesn’t know most of them. One day, your gasoline car is going to be worth nothing, like your old Nikon SLR. It’ll happen overnight, you’ll be left holding the bag. Do you want to take that risk on the second most expensive purchase in your life, after a house? Most people say no. Or, you could lease, but that’s for the broke and the rich, it’s just a plain rip-off for most, and leasing is cratering too, because of soaring interest rates.

So you’re scared.

You were against computers, you saw no reason to buy one, they were used by nerds, and then came AOL. In one summer, in 1995, seemingly everybody bought a PC, they wanted to play online. Tesla was AOL, but Tesla blew it. Unlike Elon Musk, Steve Case was not insane. And Elon Musk is, a great example that you can be great in one thing and clueless in another. And now we know that those who squeezed him out of PayPal were probably right. This guy is whacked.

But he brought electric cars to the forefront.

And then undercut the business.

So we have Elon Musk to blame for the slowdown in the adoption of electric cars. Teslas were not sold by advertising, they were sold by word of mouth, and now Tesla owners are not bragging about their cars, because that brings up a discussion of Musk, and the only people who seem to be in his camp are the troll bros on X, most of whom can’t afford new cars anyway. This guy has a stink upon him, he killed word of mouth overnight.

And everything sells by word of mouth today.

So don’t blame the slowdown in electric car adoption on the consumer, that people are not ready for electric, blame it on Elon Musk and the rest of the lame industry that still hasn’t caught up with Tesla. Oh, it will, but it’ll be years more, just like it took until Windows 95 for Microsoft to have even a reasonable competitor to Mac OS.

And let’s be clear, Detroit doesn’t want to sell electric cars, it wants to rest on its laurels. And it doesn’t want to invest. And this story that the public has turned on electric cars is just plain wrong.

Well, let me make this simple, it’s just a matter of when, when the country goes electric.

One in four new cars sold in California are now electric. Yes, the Golden State is still the harbinger of the future, despite the blowback of it being behind. There was a great story in the “Los Angeles Times” about how much workers sacrificed by moving elsewhere. They thought they were winning, but they were giving up protections.

“Hidden costs for remote workers moving out of California”: https://tinyurl.com/bdh76jm8

As goes California, so goes the country. Believe it.

So we’re in the middle of a perfect storm. People don’t want gasoline cars, but they’re afraid of electric cars, because of Musk’s antics and poor products from competitors.

The public hasn’t rejected electric cars so much as the purveyors convinced them not to buy them. Ford and GM cutting production and investment in infrastructure, they’re just reacting to problems that they created.

And the Chinese electric cars keep getting better and better.

And you want an electric car. Unless you’re out of town, on a road trip, you never have to go to a gas station, never have to be exposed to cancerous vapors, don’t have to waste the time. And fuel is cheaper. And maintenance costs are cheaper.

And all the red herrings of the past are gone. Turns out electric car batteries last for years, for hundreds of thousands of miles. And Tesla build quality has improved, as has its service. But you wouldn’t know this reading the press. The public says no is the story, the public wants hybrids.

Hybrids are an antiquated half-step. Usually electric range is short, they still pollute, you’ve got to go to the gas station… Hip fifteen years ago, outdated today. Would you want to use an iPhone 7? We can’t convince you to buy one, it’s obsolete, and so are gasoline automobiles, you just don’t know it yet.

Get rid of the government incentives, why have them if people don’t want electric cars! But the industry made them not want electric cars, they were primed and they ultimately will buy electric cars.

Spark plugs? Tune-ups? Oil? Imagine if your computer ran on those. Stinky, gooey, icky machines.

We’re being sold a bill of goods. The public didn’t turn on electrics, the press and industry missteps made them gun-shy.

But when you can buy a Chinese electric car for maybe even less than a gasoline car, and there are few moving parts to break… Remember when Hyundai was a joke? Now Hyundai is number three in the U.S. Perceptions change. And Teslas are already mature, far superior to the Hyundais of the nineties.

But many people don’t want to put money in Musk’s pocket. They don’t want to support this guy. So electric car sales crater and we’re told the public isn’t ready.

Oh, the public is ready, it’s just that self-inflicted wounds have given them reason to stay with gasoline automobiles.

Isn’t it a pity.

~~~

Visit the archive:   http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/

@Lefsetz  http://www.twitter.com/lefsetz
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~~~

Originally published by Bob Lefsetz in the 11/02/2023 at the Leftsetz Letter

The post Electric Cars appeared first on The Big Picture.