Szelhamos Rules

I'll Take my Chances

TheAcsMan — Tue, 21 Feb 2012 15:58:38 +0000

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Maybe it's just a coincidence, but recently it seems that every story that I want to recount has to be preceded with the qualifier "years ago." I guess that spending the vast majority of my time sitting on the La-Z-Boy makes it difficult to come up with new adventures.

And when I say recently, I mean like in the past 10 years.

And so it was, years ago that I had tickets to see Bob Seger and the Silver Bullet Band in concert.

That was at a time that concert tickets were come by honestly. There was certainly no internet to facilitate the ability to corner the market and extort ridiculously high prices from the faithful.

Interestingly, the Seger concert was supposed to occur at about the same time the Hunt Brothers had tried to corner the silver market.

Given today's giant move in silver, the Hunt Brothers may have been right all along, just many years too early.

Still, it's always nice to be vindicated.

As it would turn out there was no silver bullet to cure the throat infection that Seger had picked up just prior to the concert that ended up being cancelled.

As opposed to the controversy surrounding Aretha Franklin's withdrawal from performing at Whitney Houston's funeral service due to illness and then subsequently performing that evening, no one really questioned Seger's sincerity, as it was undoubtedly a less cynical era in history beneath the haze.

"I'll take my chances babe, I'd risk it all'" still ring out to me.

Except for that "risk it all part." That part seems pretty stupid.

Besides, were he to sing and perhaps unduly strain that "instrument" he may have actually risked it all. Just because he sang it doesn't mean that he believed it.

Music would be a lot less enjoyable if accompanied by disclaimers.

"I'd take my chances babe, I'd risk it all, unless by doing so, I'd take a fall."

And why should he believe what he sang? Does anyone really need to practice what they preach? Television evangelists certainly don't. Politicians don't remotely come close. Who knows what the market's Talking Heads are actually doing as their words are circulating.

Ultimately, I'm not really certain that anyone would have been able to spot even a significantly more raspy voice, especially given the amount of liquid and other "refreshments" that would have saturated the crowd.

I never did get to see Seger perform.

Ever.

Yet he undoubtedly did the right thing, as opposed to taking the short term gain of the ticket sales for that evening at the potentially untold expense in terms of future value if his performing career was to be adversely impacted by vocal frailty.

On the other hand, I take that short term gain at the potential expense of future gain all of the time when selling call options. Those call premiums in hand just feel so good thatit's pretty easy to dismiss the prospect of some future gain down the line.

But so far, 2012 has seen an incredible ratio of assigned contracts to expired ones for me. So much so, that for the first time in four years I'm actually underperforming the S&P 500.

Sometimes when I look at what I do during the day I sit a little stunned that the very same person can't stand the idea of placing a quarter, or its electronically debited equivalent into a slot machine's slot.

Theoretically, selling a put on a stock, as I seem to be doing quite a bit over the past three weeks, could lead to a complete loss, just as buying a call or put contract may do. Or just like pulling that bandit's arm.

But somehow, the complete loss of that quarter bothers me so much more than the potential for loss involved with having sold puts today in Research in Motion, ProSares UltraShort Silver ETF, British Petroleum, MolyCorp and Chesapeake Energy.

Go figure. Maybe it has something to do with the certainty of losing that quarter. Maybe it's the actual feel of the silver that used to be in that quarter, as opposed to the wood that used to be in those paper losses, that aren't even on paper anymore.

I have no idea what's in Gorilla Glass.

In the case of the stocks and their options which way they will go seems to follow the flip of a coin more closely than the odds that a slot machine spits out.

Today, there was an absolutely great Tweet by one of my favorite people, Tradefast.

"Most of us are working with the same data set - confident forecasts usually unveil the forecasters' hunches and biases - nothing more."

It's amazing that you can speak volumes in the course of 140 spaces or less, but Tradefast does so on a very regular basis. Great observations, commentary and all with a human touch.

Szelhamos always used to say theat "Money brings out the best in people and the worst in people."

As opposed to "many years ago" it was only recently that I realized the significance of the word "and" as opposed to "or" in that sentiment.

People are capable of going either way. Ultimately, we're probably measured on the net behavior that we exhibit over our lifetime.

Twitter seems to do the same thing.

There are many very good people sharing their expertise, humor and wisdom on Twitter. Unlike me, some people actually earn livings on the basis of their expertise, yet selflessly share with a community of unknowns.

Twitter helps to bring out the very best in those people in an all new dimension.

Yet for some inexplicable reason, Twitter seems to attract some that seem to revel in a destructive relationship. Fascinatingly, some of those people also get paid for their expertise, yet take the opinions of others as full frontal assaults. Despite the fact that both sides are essentially working with the same set of data points, and despite the fact that most rational people would recognize an inherent right to an opinion, some seem to believe they possess propietary rights to data interpretation.

Conveniently, retrospect doesn't play into the equation when that proprietary interpretation proves to be errant. In fact, from my perch it seems that the assault escalates, just to divert attention from reality.

That strategy has always worked well for despots. When things go badly, like a very badly missed call on "Buffalo Wild Wings," search for an external enemy to deflect criticism.

Disclaimer: No actual chickens were harmed in the use of that purely fictional example.

Yet, the good keep right on going, to the benefit of the greater community. When faced with an onslaught of mean spirited behavior, it's not immediately clear to me why the good keep on going, but fortunately for chorus, the lead singer doesn't call it quits.

Sometimes you end up taking chances precisely for that reason. To benefit the greater community.

Despite my better judgment, that's how I look at the spate of put contracts that I've been selling. The income that they generate keeps eveything else going, until something good in my comfort zone comes along.

Today came news that Transocean, previously part of my "Evil Troika" was going to recommend at the May 2012 sharehilder's meeting that it's healthy dividend payment be discontinued.

Transocean, which has seen better days, has very recently moved up 25%, after a very difficulyt 18 months, that have seen British Petroleum and Halliburton, the other members of the troika fling accusations at one another.

As it happens, Transocean goes ex-dividend tomorrow. After being down by about 5% in the pre-open, I purchased shares shortly after trading began and sold calls, trrying to Double Dip on the DIvidends, such as I had recently done with BP, Boeing and Aflac.

Perhaps lost in the commotion, tomorrow's dividend was still safe and the premium for the weekly contract was attractive enough to warrant bringing Transocan back into the paddock.

To complete the Troika, I sold puts on BP, whose shares were also assigned from me this weekend.

For now, anyway, the evil family is back togeher, hopefully to bring some joy to the rest of the community.

Some chances are worth taking, others not so much.

As Tradefast so correctly and humbly says, it's just a hunch.

And wouldn't you know it, there was yet another of Tradefast's Tweets that said it all:

" have a healthy respect for the difficulty of forecasting the future - am often wrong, & often in doubt - view all forecasts accordingly."

We all take chances, but when you take the caveats and follow the advice to think things through, you'll never risk it all.

Priceless advice.

Check out Recent PortfolioTransactions and Transaction Performance

Recent Trades	Security	Type	Action	Type
February 21, 2012	BP	Option	STOP	Weekly
February 21, 2012	AFL	Option	STO	Monthly
February 21, 2012	AFL	Stock	Added
February 21, 2012	GMCR	Option	STO	Weekly
February 21, 2012	GMCR	Stock	Buy
February 21, 2012	HAL	Option	STO	Weekly
February 21, 2012	HAL	Stock	Added
February 21, 2012	MOS	STO	Weekly
February 21, 2012	RIG	Option	STO*	Weekly
February 21, 2012	RIG	Stock	Buy
February 21, 2012	ZSL	Option	STO	Monthly
February 21, 2012	ZSL	Option	STOP	Monthly
February 21, 2012	CHK	Option	STOP	Weekly
February 21, 2012	RIMM	Option	STO	Weekly
February 21, 2012	RIM	Option	STOP	Weekly
February 21, 2012	RIMM	Stock	Added
February 21, 2012	ZSL	Stock	Added
February 18, 2012	RIO	Option	Expired	Monthly
February 18, 2012	S	Option	Expired	Monthly
February 18, 2012	CHK	Option	Assigned	Weekly
February 18, 2012	AFL	Option	Expired	Weekly
February 18, 2012	RIMM	STOP	Expired	Expired
February 18, 2012	BP	Option	Assigned	Weekly
February 18, 2012	BP	Stock	Assigned
February 18, 2012	GMCR	Option	Assigned	Weekly
February 18, 2012	RIMM	Option	Expired	Weekly
February 18, 2012	MCP	Option	Expired
February 18, 2012	RVBD	STOP	Expired	Weekly
February 18, 2012	FMCN	Option	Assigned	Weekly
February 18, 2012	FMCN	STOP	Expired	Weekly
February 18, 2012	ZSL	STOP	Expired	Weekly
February 18, 2012	ZSL	Option	Assigned
February 18, 2012	RVBD	Option	Assigned	Monthly
February 16, 2012	MCP	Option	STO	Weekly

Forgive and Forget?

TheAcsMan — Sun, 19 Feb 2012 15:14:13 +0000

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A lot is said about the power of grace and the human ability to forgive.

For those that believe that there is a forgiving deity that looks over the lives of all believers it's hard to say whether the power to forgive is viewed as divine or also within the province of mere mortals.

Sometimes it's much easier to believe in a vengeful God, because it seems in that instance, we would truly be made in "His" image. In the case of a forgiving God, human nature makes it hard to measure up to that standard.

I will always remember the words of John McCain during one of those periods in his public life that he was actually credible, in reference to Osama Bin Laden.

"May God forgive his soul, because I certainly won't."

After all, who are we to forgive?

Whether it is the private confession of sins or congregational prayers for forgiveness we are all flawed and we have all introduced sorrow and harm into the lives of others. Whether through passive or active positions, we could all benefit from forgiveness.

To a large degree, being able to forgive is self-serving. The animus or grudges held over being wronged can keep the aggrieved from moving forward and making decisions and taking actions to benefit themselves. Breaking the chains that shackle may begin with the single act of forgiveness. How else do you get on with the rest of your life?

What better way to thumb your nose at your tormentor than to move forward and prosper?

But what about the latter half of the old saying "Forgive and Forget"?

Why Am I asking so many questions?

So many in response to horrible acts have adopted the mantra "Never Forget," in response to man's inhumanity and the pains suffered.

To forget is to repeat. You don't have to be Santayana to realize the logic of that concept, although if you also buy into the concept that history repeats itself, you're doomed regardless.

I've never met an historian that doesn't remember history, other than Newt Gingrich.

"Never Forget" was emblazoned on all of the literature of the Jewish Defense League. It has adorned many 9/11remembrances and would certainly have been applied in the aftermath of Pearl Harbor, as well. In it's more elegant form it is inscribed in the plaque at the Auschwitz site and even in German subway stations.

Forgetting is not so simple. Nearly 200 years later we still talk about the Hatfields and the McCoys and really, how many people were effected by that, other than the occasional case of acute lead poisoning and in-breeding?

On Sunday there was a great article in the New York Times about an American Hockey player who is now playing on the German national team. What made the article worthy of writing, publishing and reading was the fact that the player, Evan Kaufmann, was not only Jewish, but much of his family was deported from their German ancestral village and perished in the Auschwitz concentration camp during the Holocaust, perhaps together with most of my family.

The article raises questions of forgiveness and has some poignant issues for consideration.

Forgetting is never part of the equation.

It's really trivial to somehow bring the issue of stocks into a discussion that's preceded by the Holocaust, but the very ideas of forgiving and forgetting are really part of nearly everything that we do.

So to break the ice, let me share one of my favorite jokes.

Question: "What's worse than finding a half eaten worm in a muffin?"

Answer: "The Holocaust."

As horrible as those years were, part of what helped people to survive from day to day must have been humor. Among the things that could never be extinguished was humor. Szelhamos had it in great abundance.

OK. Faith, too, but not as much.

So now that it's accepable to move forward, I remember every single losing decision that I've made when it comes to stocks. Where my short term memory may be lagging in other areas, it's every bit as good as the long term memory when it comes to that topic.

Not only can I not forget, but I can't forgive either.

The problem is that there's no one to blame other than myself and I'm not willing to let go. Enabler and victim all in one is, at the very least, an efficient model. I don't need a diva like entourage to enable me to do stupid and destructive things.

Technology has been my bane. Whether Dell Computer, Yahoo!, Hewlett Packard or some others over the years, even though the decisions were mine, the prejudice is directed toward them, but the chains are still on me.

It's not terribly likely that my prejudice is causing those companies any great duress. Instead, if there is any detriment, it's probably at my own expense since the prejudice and the clinging to the distaste has kept me from moving forward as new opportunities made themselves evident to others.

When it comes to investing, there's not much place for emotion. Not greed, not fear and certainly not hatred.

Each Monday, I feel a sense of rebirth, as a new options cycle gets underway. But unlike the Hindu and Buddhist concepts of rebirth, I have full awareness of previous lives, decisions and actions. Not that it necessarily helps in any way.

Repeating certain actions is nothing more than a response to positive reinforcement and pleasure seeking. I use my list of "Old Reliables" and consistently go back to them for what I believe will be another good series of outcomes.

Unfortunately, some actions either reflect poor judgment, schadenfreude or simply forgetting the past.

The funny thing is that despite lessons learned and despite the wounds to show for it, there's another part of human nature that consciously or sub-consciously wants to conquer and vanquish.

Or at the very least stand up to the tormentor and strut to a Gloria Gaynor tune.

This week, I'll have nearly 60% of my portfolio that needs to be replaced due to assignment of call contracts and expiration of the put contracts that I'd sold.

A week ago, I would have been of the opinion that I would not likely find myself selling put contracts again, just because there were no stock bargains to be had.

But just a week later, those sales were the best decisions of the entire February options cycle, with the exception of doing so with Research in Motion.

In the space of just two weeks time I've gone from believing that I would never again take those actions to looking for precisely the same opportunities as the coming weeks' trading begins.

Forgive?

You bet.

Forget? Yeah, maybe that too.

In the case of Evan Kaufmann, the story has another interesting lesson. That is the case of the spokesperson for the German Hockey team, who also happens to be a history teacher. He has urged Kaufmann to tell his story and that of his family to his team-mates and the German people, yet he is uncomfortable discussing the topic himself with Kaufmann.

"I can't speak with someone when my people killed his people."

The chains and shackles go in both directions.

Neither will truly be free until the aggrieved forgives the tormentor and the tormentor is able to accept grace.

I don't understand hockey.

I also don't understand how families and friends can become estranged over really trivial matters.

But I do understand how Evan Kaufmann can find himself filled with the kind of pride playing hockey in Germany that he may never have found playing hockey in Minnesota. Forgiveness is incredibly empowering.

I understand Kaufmann, just like I can understand how some of my relatives dropped their chains and finally purchased a Mercedes Benz.

So when we're done celebrating President's Day, I'm going to give Dell, H&P and Yahoo! another look.

This time, without an historical noose to guide me, but still paying attention to the phantom neck tightness that will always be there to remind me.

Forgive, you'll be better off. But forget that I told you so.

Check out Recent PortfolioTransactions and Transaction Performance

Recent Trades	Security	Type	Action	Type
February 18, 2012	CHK	Option	Assigned	Weekly
February 18, 2012	AFL	Option	Expired	Weekly
February 18, 2012	RIMM	STOP	Expired	Expired
February 18, 2012	BP	Option	Assigned	Weekly
February 18, 2012	BP	Stock	Assigned
February 18, 2012	GMCR	Option	Assigned	Weekly
February 18, 2012	RIMM	Option	Expired	Weekly
February 18, 2012	MCP	Option	Expired
February 18, 2012	RVBD	STOP	Expired	Weekly
February 18, 2012	FMCN	Option	Assigned	Weekly
February 18, 2012	FMCN	STOP	Expired	Weekly
February 18, 2012	ZSL	STOP	Expired	Weekly
February 18, 2012	ZSL	Option	Assigned
February 18, 2012	RVBD	Option	Assigned	Monthly
February 16, 2012	MCP	Option	STO	Weekly

Fundamental or Technical

TheAcsMan — Wed, 15 Feb 2012 17:29:24 +0000

Four years ago there was much excitement about the projected upper limit of Google's share price. It had gone as high as about $750 and everyone was calling for at least another $100.

And those were the cautious analysts. I believe that back then, the more optimistic investors referred to those less ebullient analysts as some form of cat.

Everyone agreed that on a fundamental basis Google was undervalued. But then there was that gnawing unease about how quickly its stock price had climbed, about 50% in about 6 weeks.

Are we sounding familiar, yet?

At that point the tech bubble was already a very distant memory. Besides, Google had an actually revenue stream and obscene profits. It could only keep going up as there was no reason for search users to curtail their clicking, since there was no cost involved to use Google search.

The one thing you can say about Google the company is that very few people will confuse it with "googol," the mathematical expression from which the company's name is said to be derived.

Well, a funny and totally unexpected thing happened, unless you believe that a cacophony of bulls heralds the coming of bears.

Even before the bottom fell out of the market as we learned such expressions as "sub-prime" and "collaterized debt obligation"," Google decided to shed about 40% of its share value.

From that level it dropped another 40% in sympathy with the rest of the market. In fact, Google wasn't totally sympathetic as it left its bottom dwelling position about 4 months before the overall market, rising 18% from its low before the market took its lead.

A case of "so long. Been good knowing you, but I'm outta here."

Interestingly, from that market low, what is justly referred to as "The Haines Bottom," the S&P 500 has slightly edged Google in performance.

I wonder if they calculated in Google's generous dividend payments or the stock split.

Today, when someone says the word "Apple," no one is really thinking of the fruit anymore. The product on nature's pollination may as well take a seat next to "googol."

Despite all of the naysayers calling for Apple to take decisive action regarding a divided or stock split after the passing of Steve Jobs, in order to mainatain its share price, Tim Cook, the new and old CEO has done quite nicely, thank you.

Bit the choruses are eerily reminiscent of Google back before we knew of such realities as Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns.

Obviously, unless Tim Cook decides to pull a "Kozlowski" and blow it all on crack, hookers and baccarat, it's not too likely that excesses and greed are going to do Apple in.

But as the waves are increasingly filled with calls for Apple to reach $600, just 2 days after achieving the $500 level, you can't begin but to remember the Google experience.

More and more people are paying attention to the "stream" whether on Twitter or StockTwits and there's no doubt that Apple is king of the stream.

Greece is barely a blip. It's all Apple.

So many are talking up the fundamental argument for why Apple is destined to reach $600 and beyond.

A few months ago James Altucher in his blog predicted that Apple would be the first trillion dollar company. He came to that opinion more than a year ago. On a subsequent "Fast Money" CNBC appearance he upped that to two trillion. My guess is that he didn't do so out of conviction, but more to get a reaction from the panelists.

He's good at that and they typically dismiss his opinions at their own risk.

I tend to tune out when anyone starts talking about such things as "multiples." I really don't know anything about fundamental analysis. I understand the concepts and the use of standard metrics, but I'm too tired and lazy to do the homework necessary to be able to compare Apples and oranges.

I'm not certain which "Apple" I was just referring to.

The other day there was a great side quip from Melissa Lee to Joe Kernen that likely went unnoticed. She commented that he was changing his metrics, regarding a topic they had been discussing. Then she added "you probably learned to do that from our guests."

But it seems that on the fundamentals Apple is destined to be heading higher. At least that what the stream says.

Much higher.

But then comes the competing stream. Those that are stressing the "technical" aspects.

I know even less about "technical analysis."

I do know enough to realize that there's no shortage of bright technicians looking at the same charts and coming to very different interpretations. I can stare at charts until my life expectancy is expired and I still can see the cup from the handle.

I'm also biased because I don't have a middle name and can't even fantasize about filling the blazer of Carer Braxton Worth, the "Chief Market Technician for Oppenheimer, who also appears with great regularity on Fast Money.

He is the antithesis of James Altucher. You can decide for yourself on which metrics.

So out of my own shortcomings I choose to neither adhere to technical nor fundamental analyses, despite the fac that I acknowledged that "fundamentalism can't be all bad" in the past..

From a fundamental perspective, I've always been amazed at the conundrum that surrounds "closed end" mutual funds. Never understanding how they could alternate between trading a huge discounts and huge premiums to the actual value of their holdings.

Beyond that, in a rational world, one might suspect that in the case of a price discount, some wise investor or some crude barbarian would exploit the inefficiency in pricing.

But I suppose that you have to be selective in your application of the fundamentals.

Hey, even the most pious of public officials can't even entirely agree on the nuances of the "Ten Commandments," so what hope is there for the rest of us?

Despite the fact that I spent the greatest portion of my life steeped in scientific methodology and have a great affinity for the sanctity of mathematical truth, I just can't extend that to the newest portion of my life.

Instead, I gravitate more to my Sugar Momma's touchy feely professional realm.

It's all about the emotions.

After a couple of days, I'm still somewhat stunned at all of the professed shock at the sad passing of Whitney Houston, but as I begin to think about the real mover of Apple or any other stock in the news, I realize that I know more than a single Whitney song.

"I get so emotional, baby."

And that explains it all.

Check out Recent PortfolioTransactions and Transaction Performance

Recent Trades	Security	Type	Action	Type
February 13, 2012	BP	Option	STO*	Weekly
February 13, 2012	BP	Stock	Buy
February 13, 2012	GMCR	Option	STO	Weekly
February 13, 2012	RIMM	Option	STO	Weekly
February 13, 2012	RIMM	Stock	Added
February 13, 2012	BA	Option	STO	Weekly
February 13, 2012	MCP	Option	STO	Weekly
February 13, 2012	MCP	Stock	Added
February 13, 2012	CHK	Option	STO	Monthly
February 11, 2012	BA	Option	Expired	Weekly
February 11, 2012	CHK	Option	Expired	Weekly
February 11, 2012	HAL	Option	Expired	Weekly
February 11, 2012	MOS	Option	Expired	Weekly
February 11, 2012	MS	Option	Expired	Weekly
February 11, 2012	BP	Option	Assigned	Weekly
February 11, 2012	GOOG	Option	Assigned	Weekly
February 11, 2012	MCP	Option	Assigned	Weekly
February 11, 2012	RIMM	Option	Assigned	Weekly
February 10, 2012	AFL	Option	STO*	Monthly
February 10, 2012	AFL	Stock	Buy
February 10, 2012	CHK	Option	BTC	Weekly
February 10, 2012	RVBD	Option	BTC	Weekly
February 9, 2012	GMCR	Option	STO	Crumbs
February 9, 2012	GMCR	Stock	Buy
February 9, 2012	RVBD	Option	STOP	Monthly
February 9, 2012	MCP	Option	STOP	Crumbs

Love Stinks

TheAcsMan — Wed, 15 Feb 2012 12:48:36 +0000

I know that "Love Stinks" is not exactly an original sentiment. It's either wildly appropriate or inappropriate of a sentiment on Valentines Day.

The other day as those who were not watching Oprah Winfrey's show on a behind the scenes look at life in an Orthodox Jewish were watching the Grammy awards, they got to see songstress Adele receive six awards.

By now, everyone on the planet knows the stories of personal and emotional pain behind some of her songs, such as "Someone Like You." Great story for sure, but I'd really like to know the story behind the J. Geils Band song "Love Stinks."

Yeah, yeah.

But as long as it is Valentines Day, it's obligatory to search for things that you do love and express those feelings.

Among the things that I love is how egalitarian Twtitter is, allowing everyone to rub elbows, as long as they maintain some kind of decorum and don't show excessive skin on their Avatars.

You also get to see communication, exchange and banter between and sometimes among reasonably well known people. That is, if you happen to travel in a highly defined circle. The love of my life, my Sugar Momma, doesn't travel in that circle or even its outskirts, where I hang out, but even she now knows the name Herb Greenberg.

Even the "hoity toity" of Twitter will occasionally respond to the "hoi polloi." Greenberg is not among the "hoity toity," he's a big advocate of engaging the masses and does so on a very regular basis.

Today, Herb Greenberg posted a Tweet making a poignant observation regarding the extent of the irrational behavior being exhibited by the people that used to be called "investors."

His comment expressed how he is "always surprised how so many people dismiss the concept of risk in high-flying stocks."

I don't think that he was looking for an answer. Instead, he was probably trying to exercise some form of personal restraint, as everyone has been giving him a hard time of late for being too emotional and getting overly worked up about irrational investor behavior. Top that off with the ridiculous nature of the things that corporations seem to be getting away with and you've got the makings of many a good rant.

Although Sugar Momma isn't familiar with the name "Ed Ponsi," I am, as are another 20,000+ on Twitter, in addition to a less quantifiable number that follow him through his television appearances, books and professional capital management pursuits.

His response to Greenberg's Tweet was certainly appropriate for the day and a very likely partial answer to the question.

"Cupid's magic - They fall in love."

For today's purposes, it was the entire answer really. For today, all you need to know is that people do sometimes fall in love with a stock. They fantasize about the great things in store for their time together, or they remember the good old days.

Some other time there'll be opportunity to discuss greed, stupidity, fear and fear of missing out.

To top of the great things about Twitter you can interpose yourself and sometimes get some recognition.

I took the opportunity to agree with Ponsi's observation and added that "investors should treat stocks the way they do their marriage. Without passion."

Now luckily, Sugar Momma never reads this blog, but occasionally some of her friends happen to see it and may point out some stupid things that I've written.

If there's any passion in their lives they'll be too occupied to read the blog today, so I'm probably safe.

Whether it's love, hate, greed or fear, there's absolutely no place for emotion when it comes to investing or trading.

Everyone knows that, but sometimes it's just so hard to resist the temptations.

I actually do have stocks that I love. Among them are JP Morgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Microsoft and RIverbed Technology.

I don't think that I've had a single day over the past 4 years that I haven't owned at least one of them.

At the moment, I only hold shares in RIverbed, as well as having sold some put contracts a few days ago. Despite that, I can't wait to get any of those others back, even if only for a week.

To do as I do, selling covered calls on just about everything that makes sense, it's not a good idea to form an emotional connection with any stock. Before you know it, they're gone and they leave behind a terrible mess when it comes to filing tax returns.

With the unexpected rally in January I said goodbye to more than my usual share of stocks, although some of them came right back home. You can't be very thin skinned if that's the life you choose for your stocks.

The reality is that at some point they're going to find a new home. If they don't, that's really a bad sign. In fact, the longer a stock stays with me, the less I'm likely to fall in love with it.

Isn't that just the summary of the human condition?

It's exactly the same that you want with your own kids. They need to get out of the house, even though you're not likely to replace them with another kid. Although a new hot tub, pool table, media room and the like would all be nice and might soothe the loneliness.

If your stocks find greater success in someone else's hands and are assigned away, well that's just the natural order of things. They can always come back when they falter, so that you can restore them and make them desirous again.

Think of it as pimping your stocks.

That's a form of love, isn't it?

For me, what makes a stock lovable is just how often I can bring them back into the portfolio and milk them for their options premiums.

Pretty unsentimental words to describe the love, but nonetheless, it is love.

But love makes you do stupid things.

Herb Greenberg knows that, Ed Ponsi knows that and even I know that.

Knowing it doesn't always seem to prevent the stupidity, though.

Since I don't prescribe to the Bernard Baruch philosophy regarding cutting losses and I revile selling at a loss, I can instead sit and watch how the love of options premiums caused me to do stupid things.

Research in Motion and MolyCorp are usually outside of my comfort zone, except when emotions take over and stupid thoughts get put into action.

I can think about how the love of trading made me execute stupid trades.

Selling puts because there were no values to be had in purchasing new shares is akin to soliciting a prostitute just because your wife went to the mall for a couple of hours.

Would it have killed me to have waited a day or two?

But there you go. Ed Ponsi was right and Herb Greenberg kept his blood pressure below the boiling point.

I don't know where J. Geils is these days. I hope that things have worked out better for him in the "love department" now that about 30 years have passed.

As far as Adele goes, since her album titles are based on the her age at the time of their release, I really don't want to know what's going on with Adele in 30 years. It's not likely that I'll be interested in listening to soulful and mournful songs about adult onset diabetes.

But hopefully with time common sense can temper passion and emotion just a bit, especially when it comes to management of investments.

In my case, I'm not quite so certain that I won't occasionally trip up and follow the weakest link of my being.

True, love does stink, but only if you really think about it and still have a functioning memory.

I'm going to try and cut off all emotion in the future when it comes to my stocks.

I'm thinking of adopting the warning that accompanies some medications that are widely used on Valentine's Day.

I will be ceratin to call my broker if I own a stock for longer than four hours.

But, even if only for a few hours, you can still convince yourself that it's real love that you felt. Better to have owned for a short time than to never had owned at all or owned well beyond the time the rose faded.

Yes, "Love Stinks," but the alternatives are far worse.

Check out Recent PortfolioTransactions and Transaction Performance

Recent Trades	Security	Type	Action	Type
February 13, 2012	BP	Option	STO*	Weekly
February 13, 2012	BP	Stock	Buy
February 13, 2012	GMCR	Option	STO	Weekly
February 13, 2012	RIMM	Option	STO	Weekly
February 13, 2012	RIMM	Stock	Added
February 13, 2012	BA	Option	STO	Weekly
February 13, 2012	MCP	Option	STO	Weekly
February 13, 2012	MCP	Stock	Added
February 13, 2012	CHK	Option	STO	Monthly
February 11, 2012	BA	Option	Expired	Weekly
February 11, 2012	CHK	Option	Expired	Weekly
February 11, 2012	HAL	Option	Expired	Weekly
February 11, 2012	MOS	Option	Expired	Weekly
February 11, 2012	MS	Option	Expired	Weekly
February 11, 2012	BP	Option	Assigned	Weekly
February 11, 2012	GOOG	Option	Assigned	Weekly
February 11, 2012	MCP	Option	Assigned	Weekly
February 11, 2012	RIMM	Option	Assigned	Weekly
February 10, 2012	AFL	Option	STO*	Monthly
February 10, 2012	AFL	Stock	Buy
February 10, 2012	CHK	Option	BTC	Weekly
February 10, 2012	RVBD	Option	BTC	Weekly
February 9, 2012	GMCR	Option	STO	Crumbs
February 9, 2012	GMCR	Stock	Buy
February 9, 2012	RVBD	Option	STOP	Monthly
February 9, 2012	MCP	Option	STOP	Crumbs

Back to Life

TheAcsMan — Tue, 14 Feb 2012 12:23:27 +0000

Fiction is great. Real life? Not as much

In the world of fiction, re-animation is real. Anything can come back to life, even things that never had a spark of life before.

How many years and through how many on-screen versions have we celebrated the life of Frankenstein, perhaps the most well known of the re-animated beings.

He's dead, he's alive, he's dead again. And so on.

In some versions he was never alive to begin with, then he's alive and evil and then becomes charming and sophisticated.

See? Fiction. Try it.

Vampires, talking broom sticks, dancing teacups and even mummies. You name it and they can breathe life into it or in the case of the gentle giant in "The Green Mile." summon some kind of energy to reverse death.

Fiction is easy.

Sometimes the re-animation is endearing, like the vision of Nat King Cole doing a duet with his daughter.

There are times when the re-animation is totally unnecessary, like the appearance of the late, not so great actress Dixie Carter continuing to appear in the Public Service Ad for Spasmodic Torticolis, two years after her death.

Creepy, but understandable, since there's probably not another D-List celebrity willing to front for that cause, worthy as it may be.

At other times the re-animation is the result of morbid curiousity, such as when sales of music skyrocket after a stars' unexpected, yet fully anticipated death.

The "death bounce" in sales is well established and is matched by the sudden appearance of an unending supply of lost studio tapes and recordings.

Even the most explored band in the history of manking, The Beatles, had lost recordings become unlost.

Death will do that. But without death you can't have re-animation.

I find the many forms of life after death even more fascinating than the fact that someone who may have abused crack for twenty years died at an early age.

Artists of all genres seem to find their lives ending prematurely, yet their work output has a life of its own. I'm certain that I'm not alone in partcipating in the morbid practice of purchasing the work of a prematurely deceased artist in the hoe that scarcity woll drive up the value of the purchase.

It's also far more fascinating that a decedent's music can be streamed through the air. Seriously, people have been dying since the beginning of time, but how long has this sending music videos through "the cloud" been going on?

Occasionally stories come across that seem to suggest that someone actually came back from "the other side." Medical personnel will swear that they'd never heard or seen anything like it. We've even heard stories of people having been declared dead and somehow a day later being anything but dead.

Although frequently they're really are dead very shortly after the super-natural event. Then there's also the detail of the class ranking of the individuals attesting to the reported death.

Makes you wonder why you would waste such a great super-natural event to just die right away anyway. What kind of deity would let that happen?

In the world of "back to life" phenomena, you're less likely to have people think that you're a nut job if you choose words more genteel that "death." No one comes back from "death," but clearly they can come back from the other side.

"I was moving toward the bright white light and then I heard a voice calling to me."

Sound familiar? It's only the template for every back to life story ever told. The reasoning goes that since there's such consistency in the stories of people that have "died" or had "near death" experiences, the reports must be accurate.

Last week I felt as if something inside of me had died. At the very least it seemed like my very existence had ended as I just sat and stared at the computer monitor waiting for something to come to life on the screen.

And nothing.

The very idea that I could re-animate myself by taking a position in a dead as a doornail company like Research in Motion must have been an act of desperation, like trying to do basic life support on Frankenstein.

Companies big and small die all of the time. In a way, bankruptcy is one means of re-animation, but the hope is that instead of the same old failure of a company returning, something better will take its place.

Some companies don't disappear or die, but they fo re-invent themselves and not in a Chinese reverse merger sort of way. There are some companies that just see the death of their core business coming and they start taking appropriate steps to position themselves for a new life.

Look at IBM. Even Apple, to a very large degree is a totally different company than it set out to be.

Some companies just disappear due to circumstances beyond its control.

Do you remember that ubiquitous dietary supplement that everyone was using to help lose weight? Back in the 80's Ayds was everyone's go to elixir.

And then there's RIMM.

At the rate Research in Motion had been going, the word "Blackberry" would have entirely lost its meaning as a bush borne fruit.

Unless you had a Blackberry you were a loser. You clearly weren't important if one or more of those devices wasn't in each hand.

And then Blackberry got the sniffles. Instead of taking care of itself when faced with that pesky new iPhone technology it just ignored all of the events surrounding it and gave away the store.

Serious people weren't going to switch to the iPhone.

Sure, lets play Russian Roulette, there's an 83% chance that I won't blow my brains out.

RIMM is dead. Even worse, it obviously doesn't have any hidden technological gems waiting to be released after its death, becasue it certainly didn't have any while it was in its pre-gasping phase of life.

RIMM isn't coming back to life, but I am.

The market opened up nicely and stayed that way through the day, other than for a small fade in the late morning.

For the first time in four weeks I had a largely intact portfolio with very little need to replace anything. If anything, I had some marginally welcome new holdings in MolyCorp and, well, you know.

RIMM.

I quickly bought back my assigned shares in British Petroleeum, which is going ex-dividend on Wednesday and just as quickly sold call options.

While my ProShares UltraShort Silver ETF shares haven't been delivering very much in way of option premiums this month I've come to rely more on Double Dipping for Dividends.

Last week I purchased shares of Boeing and Aflac right before going ex-dividend, sold in the money call options, and as it turned out, will also collect the dividend.

Double Dipping. Hmmmm.

Hey, it's a living. I didn't say that I was proud to be scrounging around, but you do what you have to do.

Best of all, with the market opening on an upward spike on a Monday and with anumber of my shares right near favorable strike prices I started selling all of the call options that I couldn't do last week, as I refused to replenish my depleted supply of stocks by buying high.

Chesapeake Energy, Boeing and Green Mountain Coffee Roasters were added to the newly sold BP calls.

Beyond that, I sold calls on the new MolyCorp shares that resulted from assignment of the puts that I had sold.

Resurrection, right?

I was coming back to life.

Except for the fact that I bought even more shares of RIMM, just to go along with the shares that I was obligated to buy.

Although it seems as if re-animation of RIMM is not too likely, there seems to be that morbid curiousity factor in continuing to place faith in its shares.

That must be it, since I don't really think of myself as being overtly driven by greed. I try to be greedy in an inconspicuous fashion, letting the pennies pile.

But it seems that anyone plowing money into RIMM is probably expecting a decent and quick pop. It seemed to be heading in that direction last week.

And it's just that feeling held by the most greedy of "investors," the options buyers that's making the option premiums so rich.

Which of course feeds into my greed. It's hard to resist the premiums. They can be so enticing that you overlook the fact that the underlying technology, corporate strategy and security are all dead.

I don't know if re-animation will ever become reality. I don't know if we'll ever see a body free Ted Williams head talking up the finer points of the game again, but there has to be an element of hope in the re-animation of RIMM's shares.

Obviously, I share that ill-based hope.

I see the bright white light, but I think that it's drawing me in even though I want to escape.

And that's exactly what addiction is all about.

Whether it's crack or premiums, it's an addiction.

I just hope to live and re-live to trade another day.

Check out Recent PortfolioTransactions and Transaction Performance

Recent Trades	Security	Type	Action	Type
February 13, 2012	BP	Option	STO*	Weekly
February 13, 2012	BP	Stock	Buy
February 13, 2012	GMCR	Option	STO	Weekly
February 13, 2012	RIMM	Option	STO	Weekly
February 13, 2012	RIMM	Stock	Added
February 13, 2012	BA	Option	STO	Weekly
February 13, 2012	MCP	Option	STO	Weekly
February 13, 2012	MCP	Stock	Added
February 13, 2012	CHK	Option	STO	Monthly
February 11, 2012	BA	Option	Expired	Weekly
February 11, 2012	CHK	Option	Expired	Weekly
February 11, 2012	HAL	Option	Expired	Weekly
February 11, 2012	MOS	Option	Expired	Weekly
February 11, 2012	MS	Option	Expired	Weekly
February 11, 2012	BP	Option	Assigned	Weekly
February 11, 2012	GOOG	Option	Assigned	Weekly
February 11, 2012	MCP	Option	Assigned	Weekly
February 11, 2012	RIMM	Option	Assigned	Weekly
February 10, 2012	AFL	Option	STO*	Monthly
February 10, 2012	AFL	Stock	Buy
February 10, 2012	CHK	Option	BTC	Weekly
February 10, 2012	RVBD	Option	BTC	Weekly
February 9, 2012	GMCR	Option	STO	Crumbs
February 9, 2012	GMCR	Stock	Buy
February 9, 2012	RVBD	Option	STOP	Monthly
February 9, 2012	MCP	Option	STOP	Crumbs

Walk of Shame

TheAcsMan — Mon, 13 Feb 2012 13:04:11 +0000

I've always loved that expression "the walk of shame."

You can sort of picture the antecedent events that ultimately lead up to that walk. There's usually some significant disappointment involved and fantasies that were a bit misplaced.

Rarely do you hear people refer to their early morning "walk of fame."

Sometimes the walk of shame comes as a complete surprise, but most of the time you know that it's there just waiting for you. So much so that the people on the path even know your story even though they don't know you.

They know and recognize the walk.

What inspires or leads up to the walk?

For some it's alcohol, born out of loneliness, which itself may be born out of a need to belong.

Before the walk, most everyone fantasizes about how wonderful everything is going to turn out and then there's the slow realization that not only will those dreams not come true, but that the road taken is one of destruction.

Most don't set out with an aim of taking a path toward destruction, at least not self-destruction, at least not if they're in possession of their sanity.

Of course there are always those they know full well that their actions are going to lead to the walk and then there are those that seem to welcome self-destruction and ridicule.

That really makes you question the very recent comments made by perhaps the only figure of credibility with a seat on the Board of Directors of Research in Motion.

Roger Martin, the esteemed Dean of the University of Toronto's School of Management had some odd statements to share with anyone wanting to listen.

Martin joined the board at a time of corporate need, when RIMM was reeling from some stock options backdating scandals, the very same that had momentarily thrown a rare curveball at Steve Jobs, as well. He was the solid figure that provided credibility and support when it was desperately needed.

Now that credibility was needed again, Martin came to the rescue, but maybe those on the receiving end just didn't interpret his message properly this time around.

Maybe they just needed to be a bit more receptive to the possbility, as Martin pointed out that "our critics are idiots."

Had they been willing to accept that possibility, it would have been so much easier to understand that RIMM "had no choice but to run the company into the ground."

That had to be a comforting thing for past shareholders to hear.

Of course, he was referring to the co-CEO's who only recently had taken that walk of shame. Perhaps he was being omniscient in referring to the walk that the new CEO will be taking at some point in the future.

Martin fell into the category of one taking the walk of shame having paved the road with seeds born of denial and self-destruction.

But this walk of shame discussion isn't really about RIMM.

RIMM is old news. Martin is irrelevant, especially after his comments. Besides, the real damage at RIMM was done a long time ago, perhaps not in terms of time, but in terms of stock value.

It's about my walk of shame.

Sometimes you just need to recognize that the acts that you're about to undertake, despite your better judgment, perhaps shouldn't be undertaken.

In an overly obtuse way, that's saying that you really shouldn't do anything that you know to be stupid.

But least week that's all I found myself doing, with barely a single constructive trade to be made.

Instead, it was all about selling puts, as I'd already outlined in detail over the past few days.

It's not that I set on on a path of self-destruction. I certainly wasn't under the influence of alcohol and I can barely say that the thrill and ecstasy of making the trades were worth it.

Sure, there were a couple of correct calls. The Chesapeake Energy options worked out and the Focus Media, Riverbed Technology and ProShares UltraShort Silver ETF shares seemed to be going in the right direction, but then there was the issue of RIMM.

Deep down, I'm pretty sure I knew that it was beneath me to sell in the money put options on RIMM, but I wanted something and I needed something, regardless of the cost.

Whatever it is that I received in gratification was too little and too short lasting to offset the shame of the walk. The gratification came in the form of a premium and actually a short lived thrill when the in the money option became an out of the money option.

Then reality hit as those smart enough to have recently purchased their shares took advantage of the quick rally and locked in their profits.

The options premiums and the short lived price spike? Not enough to make up for the dream deferred.

My walk of shame actually begins as trading starts on Monday morning.

What kind of a moron walks around with freshly purchased shares of RIMM? It's not like I could hide the fact by just not listing the transactions for all to see.

What makes the walk of shame so obvious is the fact that you can't change your clothes or your appearance. How I'd love to omit the stupid trade. The one done just in the misplaced hope that fantasy would overtake reality and send shares of RIMM to its restored place of honor.

As if Apple never existed.

The sad part is that the walk of shame is usually done on a recurrent basis, almost as if the disappointment was the actual prize.

Schadenfreude. Happiness when things go badly.

Some people probably revel in being able to take that walk of shame, perhaps knowing that any successful venture then gets magnified well beyond its real importance.

Maybe they fantasize about someday taking that walk with a prized trophy by their side, just to show all those sneering along the path that it was all worth it.

In my case, there's no sense of schadenfreude. I remember every losing trade and especially every poorly conceived idea.

But like so many that make that walk over and over again, I just don't know if I'll necessarily learn from the events of the past week. The lure of the premiums and the lure of the fantasy of being successful are so great that it's hard to resist.

I guess that for those that do have to go through the walk of shame, perhaps the only thing they could really be faulted for is not having a back-up plan.

Like a reversible blouse or jacket. Maybe a new path back home so that they won't be seen. Or maybe even a change of clothing.

Last week, I really had no backup plan to deal with a situation where there were no stock values to be had. Instead, I just went for the immediate gratification without regard to the consequences.

Although I couldn't make stock prices seek out more reasonable and lower levels, I could have exercised abstinence until just the right stock would come along at just the right price.

This week I won't have the same problem as in the past three weeks, in that I only need to replace about 10% of my holdings, instead of the 50-60%.

Instead of looking for new stocks to add, I'll be looking for opportunities to rid myself of the ones that I currently own, the ones that have caused me shame.

Why did it have to feel so good before it felt so bad?

Check out Recent PortfolioTransactions and Transaction Performance

Recent Trades	Security	Type	Action	Type
February 11, 2012	BA	Option	Expired	Weekly
February 11, 2012	CHK	Option	Expired	Weekly
February 11, 2012	HAL	Option	Expired	Weekly
February 11, 2012	MOS	Option	Expired	Weekly
February 11, 2012	MS	Option	Expired	Weekly
February 11, 2012	BP	Option	Assigned	Weekly
February 11, 2012	GOOG	Option	Assigned	Weekly
February 11, 2012	MCP	Option	Assigned	Weekly
February 11, 2012	RIMM	Option	Assigned	Weekly
February 10, 2012	AFL	Option	STO*	Monthly
February 10, 2012	AFL	Stock	Buy
February 10, 2012	CHK	Option	BTC	Weekly
February 10, 2012	RVBD	Option	BTC	Weekly
February 9, 2012	GMCR	Option	STO	Crumbs
February 9, 2012	GMCR	Stock	Buy
February 9, 2012	RVBD	Option	STOP	Monthly
February 9, 2012	MCP	Option	STOP	Crumbs

The Producers

TheAcsMan — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 12:42:21 +0000

I doubt that there's another pseudo-financial blog that's actually mentioned Zero Mostel twice in the past month.

Strictly speaking, I wouldn't be included in that category, since its been nearly two months since I mentioned the legendary comic actor. But I really had no choice in my choice of words. It's not as if there's a reasonable alternative to "fortnight" when discussing monthly increments.

At the time, I'm not certain that I really paid appropriate homage to Mostel, since his reference was contained in a blog that was really about the death of North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il and the market rally that his death spurred.

Sometimes getting lumped together takes away deserved focus.

For example, as focused as we were on the last days of a dying Farrah Fawcett, the fact that she ended up dying on the same day as Michael Jackson made her just a forgotten post-script to the story on that day and shortly thereafter..

Then, just as we were ready to pay her the attention and respect that she so deserved, we discovered that she died of "anal cancer." At that point we wanted to forget about her altogether.

Eeew.

Before it became a smash hit on Broadway, "The Producers" was a movie starring Zero Mostel.

In addition to being an hilarious movie, The Producers was able to make a mockery of an unrepentant New York Nazi at a time when World War II was still a reasonably fresh and painful memory.

In Gilbert Gottfried terms even the passage of a couple of minutes absolves someone from the "it's too soon" complaint, but when it came to the Holocaust, 20 years was still too soon.

The fact that Mel Brooks, Zero Mostel and Gene Wilder were all Jewish probably helped to ease some of the discomfort with the concept, and besides, the late Kenneth Mars was a great wacky Nazi.

A few generations later when we all know too well of the enormity of investment related thievery and financial wrongdoing, the scam perpetuated by Max Bialystock almost seems quaint.

He was in the business of "making money out of nothing at all."

The idea of selling something that you don't own is repugnant and is, therefore, well suited for modern finance and investing.

We all remember how many stones were hurled in the direction of short sellers. You didn't have to be a widely ridiculed Overstock CEO to appreciate some inherent evil in selling short.

Imagine that. Selling shares in stocks that you don't actually own.

When the markets are rapidly melting away there needs to be a scapegoat. That's the strategy that's used by every dictator in the world when things aren't going well. You always look for someone else to take the blame.

Best of all is to select an internal enemy.

They're nefarious. They're like termites seeking to destroy the very fabric of everything that we hold dear.

It's all boilerplate language. Feel free to use at for whatever situation is at hand.

Short sellers fit that bill, especially the onerous naked short sellers.

And of course, when the financial crisis really hit back in 2008, the short sellers were at the center of the blame game, even though it turned out that a derivative of those "making money out of nothing at all" had perhaps the important hand.

You know, the ones that created all sorts of imaginary debt obligations. Repackaged, reshuffled and made to look real.

But that was all so opaque and poorly understood, that the easiest thing to do was to focus on the shorts. Not only by prohibiting their actions in financial stocks, but by also selecting to enforce the existing rules and regulations regarding short selling.

It's hard enough being a pimp, but once you start enforcing the rules it really gets tough.

Obviously, placing blame on short sellers conveniently overlloked their necessary role of creating liquidity in the markets. Don't we always get reminded that's what it takes to make a market?

Besides, which of us wouldn't want to get in on that scam if we had the opportunity?

How else do you explain the recent story of the person that was renting out foreclosed homes in California, without having the benefit of ownership or any other relationship to the properties or their past or present owners?

The only relationship was the ability to break in and replace the entry locks and then find willing tenants.

And so for the better part of the past week I've been moaning about the inability to find anything to spend my pile of money upon.

No bargains seemed avaible. Only stocks moving highre in the absence of any appropriate news to make them do so.

No purchases, no call option sales. No call option sales, no income.

But then, the ghost of Zero Mostel came to me.

"Sell what you don't own."

How right he was. How did I not see it? I'd done it before, but really tried staying off the radar screen in the past by doing it very infrequently.

Selling puts and collecting options. That's what the ghost of Mostel was telling me.

But it felt so dirty, until I realized that selling calls means that deep down I really wanted stock prices to go down.

Isn't that what the short sellers want?

I don't want to be like them. I want to be good and highly regarded by my investing community.

At least the part of the comminity that's not currently awaiting trial.

Zero wa so right. Selling puts would do all of that and more.

When you sell puts you want stock prices to go up. That's good for everyone except for those investing termites that seek to crumble our system.

Going up is the natural order of things. Remember the 90's? What goes up goes higher.

And so it began first with my recently beleagured ProShares Ultrahort Silver ETF. But then in rapid succession Chesapeake Energy, MolyCorp, RIMM, RIverbed Technology and Focus Media.

Before I knew it, all of the money in the pile was used up, held as collateral in the terrible event that those share prices actually went down.

Oh, so I wan't really making money out of nothing at all then, was I?

But still, my heart was in the right place.

Granted, the addiction to spend money on pieces of paper with arbitrary value at best is nowhere near as noble an effort as helping little old ladies feel good about themselves and support the arts, but it's something.

I am comforted in the knowledge that the ghost of Zero Mostel would impart only sound advice and guidance.

Now on the other hand, Nathan Lane?

Check out Recent PortfolioTransactions and Transaction Performance

Recent Trades	Security	Type	Action	Type
February 9, 2012	GMCR	Option	STO	Crumbs
February 9, 2012	GMCR	Stock	Buy
February 9, 2012	RVBD	Option	STOP	Monthly
February 9, 2012	MCP	Option	STOP	Crumbs
February 8, 2012	MCP	Option	STOP	Weekly
February 8, 2012	RIMM	Option	STOP	Weekly
February 8, 2012	FMCN	Option	STOP	Monthly

Anticipation

TheAcsMan — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 12:45:44 +0000

There was a time when a singer named "Carly Simon" was very popular.

She rarely performed in concert because she reportedly wasn't comfortable in the limelight.

Although she was very attractive, you couldn't help but notice that she could fit a microphone into her mouth sideways. And to top it off, she must have been happy, because she was always flashing that incredibly wide smile, that may have actually been larger than most New York City studio apartments.

Her song, "You're so Vain," is still discussed by aging baby boomers who continue to wonder whether the song was about Bob Dylan, Warren Beatty or anyone else who may have been alive at the time.

These sort of things matter.

She was also part of the 70's rock royalty, since she was married to James Taylor, the king of soft and non-threatening pop during that time period. He was the kind of singer that even your parents could like.

"You've Got a Friend," was everybody's faorite song for the 5 years or so that it seemed to be getting perpetual airplay.

I saw Carly SImon in concert, only because she and James Taylor were surprise participants in a Jackson Brown show a long time ago in Providence, a city so small, that I was able to find on street parking right near the venue.

Obviously, those sort of things matter, too.

She could probably avoid the glare of the concert hall, as she was part of the SImon-Schuster empire, sold lots of records and otherwise, had it all.

Not only did she have it all, but she was everywhere. Strange for someone who shunned the limelight. Her song "Anticipation" was the theme for an iconic TV commercial of a child waiting for the ketchup to come out of the Heinz bottle.

I don't recall if the kid was patient or impatient, but I'm suffering through a great period of impatience.

Three days worth.

Peope anticipate all sorts of things. Many have strategies to deal with the anticipated event once it arrives, but few have strategies to deal with the situation if it doesn't

You can include me in that latter group.

In general, I like to be prepared for all possibilities. And like everyone else in that generation, I wasn't prepared for the Carly Simon and James Taylor divorce, nor the news of James Taylor's deep depression, but most of us moved on.

But now I've been caught totally unprepared these past few days.

As opposed to Heinz ketchup, which took about 35 years to deal with the "problem" of slow moving ketchup, I don't think I have that kind of time left.

That's true for a number of reasons, predominantly the fact that I don't have that kind of time left.

But just like that little kid, there's a sense of urgency involved.

It took Heinz those 30+ years to come up with the dual ideas of a wide mouthed bottle and a squeeze bottle.

How genius were those, especially since in the era of "fast everything" a slow moving ketchup can no longer be marketed as a desirable property?

We want it fast and now.

I once had a girlfriend who worked in a restaurant. I'd often go at closing time to pick her up and would often see her doing the nightly ritual of re-filling the Heinz ketchup bottles with something from a big can that flowed alot faster.

Bastards. I'll bet they even ripped the tags off of mattresses, but by now, I'm sure that some kind of statute of limitations must apply.

But still, a strategy, nonetheless, as the owner likely wanted to turn those tables around faster, rather than waiting for the expensive ketchup to start flowing.

So I've been sitting an anticipating some kind of a market move the past three days. With the money continuing to burn a hole in my pocket, I really preferred to see a nice little retracement, but each of the past three days has served only to tease.

Each day it looked as maybe sanity would finally kick in and perhaps give back some of the senseless and sustained gains.

But no.

And here I was, with no fallback strategy to deal with seemingly high prices and a genetic propensity to buy stocks when there's fuel available.

I guess that buying a cheaper ketchup could have solved the anticipation problem so well defined a generation ago, but something was probably given up in that trade-off.

I suppose that I could make some kind of trade-off and look for "value" stocks, but I know exactly how that would work out. More trap than value.

Neither is sticking to my favorite stocks and buying high and selling low the kind of alternate strategy that can sustain you for a long time, but the thought has crossed my mind as the anticipated bargains just didn't materialize.

Back in the heady days of 2011 the market bounces seemed to occur on a daily basis.

Funny how the memories of a ketchup bottle from 35 years ago seem more vivid and realistic than the volatility that we used to know.

And love, in my case.

I did succumb a bit yesterday to the need to do something, but ended the day with the conviction that today would be different.

As it would turn out, it wasn't, other than the fact that my ProShares UltraShort Silver ETF didn't suffer another bout of Bernanke burnout.

Silver actually went down in price as the dollar strengthened.

Or so they surmised.

And so it was more of the same.

I sold puts in Research in Motion, Focus Media and MolyCorp.

I also bought shares of RIMM and MolyCorp the day before during previous moments of weakness, uncertainty and crisis of faith.

Focus Media was actually a company that I started with by selling puts after one of the Muddy Waters related plunges.

Those put sales were very profitable as the market very quickly began to ignore Muddy Waters' dire warnings and rapidly returned shares to its previous trading price and beyond. Ultimately, one lot was assigned and I owned shares and those too have been very profitable by virtue of selling in the money calls.

Rinse and repeat has been a good strategy with Focus Media, which I'm sure actually sells something or does something in China, or at least I think.

That's why I like volatility, as long as there is a solid floor below to support a bounce.

Even RIMM probably has some kind of floor.

A Twitter follower asked me today if I was a fan of RIMM.

My 140 space or less response was that I was generally agnostic on all shares that I owned, looking only for opportunities to generate some premium via selling covered calls or puts.

With the opportunity to buy shares and sell weekly calls on them coming to an end, as Friday approaches, agnostic was definitely the way to go as I needed to "feed the beast.". Besides, there's plenty of time, I hope, for a deathbed conversion.

Again, it's all a case of anticipation and being prepared for any of the likely or unlikely outcomes.

Who knows? In this case it's possible that the ketchup will get sucked right back into the bottle.

Check out Recent PortfolioTransactions and Transaction Performance

Recent Trades	Security	Type	Action	Type
February 8, 2012	MCP	Option	STOP	Weekly
February 8, 2012	RIMM	Option	STOP	Weekly
February 8, 2012	FMCN	Option	STOP	Monthly
February 7, 2012	CHK	Option	STOP	Weekly
February 7, 2012	MOS	Option	STO	Weekly
February 7, 2012	MOS	Stock	Added
February 7, 2012	ZSL	Option	STOP	Monthly
February 7, 2012	MS	Option	STO	Weekly
February 7, 2012	MS	Stock	Buy
February 7, 2012	BP	Option	STO	Weekly
February 7, 2012	BP	Stock	Added
February 7, 2012	BA	Option	STO *	Weekly
February 7, 2012	BA	Stock	Buy
February 7, 2012	RIMM	Option	STO	Weekly
February 7, 2012	RIMM	Stock	Buy

Hello, My Name is Bernanke

TheAcsMan — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 13:01:29 +0000

The CNBC morning show, Squawk on the Street, has a daily Tweet prompt asking viewers for their opinion on a wide range of topics.

Most of the time it's an attempt to inject a little bit of humor into the news of the day.

Today's thought surrounded yet another appearance by Ben Bernanke, this time in front of an august collection of elected officials far more genteel than those Philestine Congressman.

Senators. They're the higher and more refined form of elected official. They are usually less likely to be involved in petty scandals or felonies. They very often have better hairthan their counterparts, as well.

What if you were Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, what parting words would you like to leave with the Senate committee that you were appearing in front of today?

You just know that he can't always have the highest regard for the questions coming his way and probably even less regard for the lengthy and rambling preambles to each question.

I'm sure there's a cottage industry somewhere that has Cambodian laborers painting thought bubbles over Bernanke's image as some clever humorist then finds the words to make the photo chuckle provoking.

Since I have lots of time on my hands, especially given the boring nature of the markets for the first two days of this week, I responded to the prompt, as I do a couple of times each week and ultimately had my Tweet glow in its 3 seconds of fame.

I guess they won't accept two "winners" on the same day, because I sent a second one while listening to the testimony, questioning and answering:

"Hello, my name is Bernanke. How do you thank me?" I think was actually better than the "winning" submission.

I think that most everything in life can have a parallel drawn to something Johnny Cash sang.

Maybe they just have something against homages to Johnny Cash, who has also inspired my investing philosophy.

Maybe it was the alcohol, maybe the drugs, not likely the adultery, but there's certainly an anti-Cash agenda.

Bernanke himself seems to have an anti-cash agenda, at least as it comes to personal savings.

Bernanke is such a popular whipping boy. There's absolutely no chance of losing political capital by hurling missives at him, as Bernanke has no constituency. He may also not have any pain receptive mechanisms.

He's the city manager in a world of mayors.

The one thing that I've learned over the past two weeks is that when Bernanke speaks, it's time to short the shorts.

At least when it comes to silver.

The past couple of days have been very unusual ones for me.

I feel a bit like RIchard Pryor's character in the film "Brewster's Millions."

It's not always that easy spending money, especially if there are rules attached.

My rules are simple. Try not to lose money that can't be recovered within my lifetime and if paying for a hooker or drugs, never use credit or checks.

For the past two days the money has been burning a hole in my pocket as I've been patiently sitting and awaiting a short term breakdown to start putting the proceeds from all of those past week assignments to work.

But lately, it doesn't matter whether the news is good or bad. Even the lower openings of the past few days are simply preludes to their evaporation and a slow melt upward.

It's not quite clear to me how December 31st marked such a difference in overall market repsonse and volatility, but you can't miss the obvious dfifference in the sense of fear and urgency in the markets.

There is none.

For the third time in the past couple of weeks as the good Chairman spoke, gold and silver, which had been heading downward to offset their recent unbridled rises, abruptly reversed their course.

Holding the ProShares UltraSHort SIlver ETF that hasn't been a good thing. Each time I thought that there was going to be a chance for the price of the underlying ore to give up some of its recent gains there was Bernanke.

Whatever thoughts I may have had of finally selling calls on the remaining unhedged shares also evaporated.

At some point you learn. I think that's what they mean when they say "Don't fight the Fed."

This time, I decided to sell puts on the current month. Short the shorts.

I mentioned that the past couple of days have been unusual ones for me, but selling puts isn't entirely unusual. I even have a short chapter (no pun inteneded) in the Option to Profit book on the occasional use of that strategy.

But there was more.

Today marked the second day that I was really hard pressed to find anything to buy. Prices just seemed too high, and unfortunately that also applied to the shares of the stocks that I had recently been assigned.

That's a problem since I justify my staying at home by buying stocks and then selling calls to generate income.

Income equals money for things like mortagage payments, food and the like.

What was unusual was that I strayed from my script of "Old Reliables." I rarely wing it, only on special occasions letting a new stock enter the portfolio.

It's not that I have high standards, it's just that I'm not very capable of knowing who to let in or when, so instead, I just try to keep the gate closed.

Doing so is entirely consistent with my overall philosophy of maintaining an anti-social personna.

Yesterday I let in MolyCorp. Not only wasn't it an Old Reliable, but it's also a lot more speculative of an invetsment than I ordinarily prefer.

The hope by the close on Monday was that Tuesday would be different. Maybe Tuesday would see the fall in prices that was justified, to me at least.

Well, that didn't happen, despite the fact that it looked promising for a while, with the Dow down as much as about 50 points and silver actually down nicely, as well.

And then along came Bernanke and it all turned around.

With the heat building up in that pocket of mine something had to give.

Turned out that it was my principles.

I purchased shares of Research in Motion and Boeing. The last time I held RIMM, its shares were assigned away from me at $62.50, right before its one way trip to the abyss.

I thanked anyone in the vicinity for my good fortune in not getting stuck with RIMM and swore that I'd never buy it back.

But desperate times cause a man to do desperate things.

And Boeing? Well, I guess I could justify its purchase as part of a Double Dip Dividend strategy as it goes ex-dividend tomorrow, but the news that there may be a problem with the composite skins of its delayed Dream Liner would probably cause someone with common sense to look elsewhere for a stock prurchase.

Not me, I needed and craved the cash.

Then I replaced assigned shares of British Petroleum and Morgan Stanley and added more Mosaic shares.

All of that made a dent, but not much. Yet the prices were so unwelcoming elsewhere.

But that's where selling puts came into play.

I eventually sold puts on the ProShares UltraShort Silver and Chesepeake Energy, as I tried to further rationalize that I wouldn't mind owning shares if they were assigned at their strike prices of $10 and $22, respectively.

I'll get back to you on that.

I've learned that my principles are wavering and my faith can be easily shaken.

After the past two days, I'm not even certain that I know who I am.

In the meantime, I least I can gain some sense of security knowing that Ben Bernanke is a constant and predictable part of our lives and that he won't let anything bad happen to us.

Maybe those up for election wouldn't deign to thank you, but even when I see my assets withering in reposnse to your words, I know you have our back.

When it's all said and done, we'll all be the better for it and I can see my holdings as "The Portfolio in Black."

Check out Recent PortfolioTransactions and Transaction Performance

Recent Trades	Security	Type	Action	Type
February 7, 2012	CHK	Option	STOP	Weekly
February 7, 2012	MOS	Option	STO	Weekly
February 7, 2012	MOS	Stock	Added
February 7, 2012	ZSL	Option	STOP	Monthly
February 7, 2012	MS	Option	STO	Weekly
February 7, 2012	MS	Stock	Buy
February 7, 2012	BP	Option	STO	Weekly
February 7, 2012	BP	Stock	Added
February 7, 2012	BA	Option	STO *	Weekly
February 7, 2012	BA	Stock	Buy
February 7, 2012	RIMM	Option	STO	Weekly
February 7, 2012	RIMM	Stock	Buy
February 6, 2012	MCP	Option	STO	Weekly
February 6, 2012	MCP	Stock	Buy
February 6, 2012	MOS	Option	STO	Weekly
February 6, 2012	HAL	Option	STO	Weekly
February 4, 2012	AXP	Option	Assigned	Weekly
February 4, 2012	BP	Option	Assigned	Weekly
February 4, 2012	GS	Option	Assigned	Monthly
February 4, 2012	MS	Option	Assigned	Weekly
February 4, 2012	XLF	Option	Assigned	Monthly
February 4, 2012	HAL	Option	Expired	Weekly
February 4, 2012	MOS	Option	Expired	Weekly
February 4, 2012	V	Option	Assigned	Weekly
February 2, 2012	GOOG	Option	STO	Weekly
February 2, 2012	CHK	Option	STO	Weekly
February 2, 2012	S	Option	STO	Monthly

Seasons in the Sun

TheAcsMan — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 13:07:47 +0000

The sad thing about the human brain is that sometimes it's hard to rid it of really unnecessary or annoying memories. The other bad thing is that there comes a point that it's all to easy to get rid of them without having given consent.

I hope that you're too young to remember the summer of 1974 when a truly insipid song, Seasons in the Sun, by Terry Jacks, was forever being played on the radio.

On the other hand, if you're not too young to remember and you don't remember, well, congratulations.

Fortunately, back then there was no MTV, nor YouTube, but the radio rendition provided the creators of South Park all the reason they would ever need to dislike Canadians.

In later years Celine Dion and The Canadian Tenors would cement the feelings. Toward that end, readers should be advised that 3 Canadians were harmed in the writing of this blog article.

The Terry Jacks version itself was an adaptation of a song by Belgian Jacques Brel and American poet Rod McKuen. Luckily, there's enough dislike to go around the globe. To think that McKuen was once "cool," but there's a lot about the 60's, that if they could be remembered, would seem to not make too much sense.

Maybe it was just the bizarre and affected pronunciation of "Papa" as "Paw paw," that makes me cringe. when the song invariably pops into my mind.

It's almost like pronouncing Microsoft as "Meecrosoft."

Crazy Belgians. Putting mayonnaise on their French Fries.

Speaking of Microsoft, I just sang my ode of goodbye to one of my favorite stocks.

"We had joy, we had fun, we had seasons in the sun,

but the hills that we climbed were just seasons out of time."

I wasn't never a fair weather friend. I believed in Microsoft through thick and thicker.

Over the years Microsoft has been the biggest whipping stock out there. Only flat lining idiots invested in Microsoft.

"Present."

"Dead money," is probably defined in the dictionary as being an investment in Microsoft. When you hear words or phrases occuring in juxtaposition so often the mind can't help but to set that correlation and then believe in it.

You couldn't possibly escape believing the same, at least not based on every single talking head's opinion over the past few years regarding every single thing that Microsoft has done since Terry Jacks fell off the planet.

Ballmer? Blasted at every opportunity.

Gates? He's no Steve Jobs, that's for sure.

Not only was Microsoft "dead money" but it was also dead technology, unable to respond to the marketplace, uninspired and out of touch.

I think for about a year most every monlogue joke on The Tonight Show had "Zune" as its punchline.

Microsoft was insipid.

For the longest time what Microsoft was good for was being the stock that cold calling "pump and dump" bolier room guys, posing as legitimate stock brokers would recommend just to get your trust. Back then, Microsoft was growing unchecked and was essentially a guaranteed profit machine.

But a funny thing happened and Microsoft hit middle age sometime after WIndows 95 and the "sexy" was gone. The jokes began and using Microsoft as a way to get into your pockets proved to be ineffective.

And then another funny thing happened about 15 years later.

Microsoft suddenly has won over every talking head.

Now, if you want definitions, look up "Johnny come lately," as no one was a fan until the obvious was obvious.

Following a recent 20% or so move, Microsoft is suddendly everyone's darling stock.

Conveniently, no one has to remind the world of their years of disdain for its ownership.

This may be the third or fourth time I've written about Microsoft as the main theme, in addition to discussing it at length in my Option to Profit book.

Did I mention that Amazon Prime members can borrow the book for free on their Kindle.

Parenthetically, I don't particularly like the way the book is formatted for the Kindle, as the smaller page doesn't treat the charts and tables very well, but a sale is a sale.

Unless is a free Kindle download.

My oldest son actually chose Microsoft to be his topic in the very first guest blog I could scam anyone into writing for me.

The fact that the only stock that he had ever bought and only recentlyt had done so, mad eit fairly easy to choose Microsoft for the theme.

You'll just have to see for yourself how he weaved Lysol into the discussion.

When doing a search for "Microsoft" mentions in my blog entries, it actually turned up 20 times.

That may border on obsessive.

But that was in the past.

Microsoft has now moved on without me and without my Lysol wielding son. Assignments come and stocks go, but at least my shares went to someone who believed in ownership and not just in the thoughts of leveraging themselves through options speculation.

But still, it was that newly re-found popularity that wrestled Microsoft away.

First, a brief reminder on why Microsoft was never "dead money" to me.

If you're reading this blog for the first time, I write calls on just about everything I own.

If you're a daily reader, sorry.

Point is, that those who write calls, or as Barrons Magazine recently referred to the strategy as being the only winning one in 2011 and perhaps 2012, the over-riding feeling is that stock prices are just perfect where they are.

Let them go up, let them go down and then let them come back to where they started.

I once had a friend who justified infidelity by saying "what matters is that you come home for dessert."

It's nothing like that, o I'm not certain why I bought that up.

But coming home is the sweet spot.

Sell the options, collect the premiums and maybe even get some capital gains when assigned. I've always referred to Microsoft as being a "2.5% per month annuity."

Then just re-purchase shares after they inevitably return home and repeat the process.

Hopefully often.

And so, that's exactly what Microsoft was good for.

It was the main course and the dessert.

But now Microsoft has lots of new friends, just like the impoverished nerd in high school does once he became a dot com billionaire.

So right now, I sit bereft of Microsoft and with a little whole in my heart.

But like the seasons, stock prices are cyclical.

Given the fact that everyone has pretty climbed aboard the Microsoft train, it can't be very long for that down cycle to begin. There's no better predictor of the loss of popularity than popularity itself.

When that season comes around and Microsoft finds that its ne'er do well friends have abandoned it, that's the time to open up the doors and welcome it back.

Microsoft goes ex-dividend on Valentine's Day.

I can't think of a better time to reconcile.

"And everytime that I was down

you would always come around

and get my feet back on the ground."

You're welcome. I'll leave the key under the door mat. You can let yourself in and I'll always understand if you answer their calls again.

Check out Recent PortfolioTransactions and Transaction Performance

Recent Trades	Security	Type	Action	Type
February 6, 2012	MCP	Option	STO	Weekly
February 6, 2012	MCP	Stock	Buy
February 6, 2012	MOS	Option	STO	Weekly
February 6, 2012	HAL	Option	STO	Weekly
February 4, 2012	AXP	Option	Assigned	Weekly
February 4, 2012	BP	Option	Assigned	Weekly
February 4, 2012	GS	Option	Assigned	Monthly
February 4, 2012	MS	Option	Assigned	Weekly
February 4, 2012	XLF	Option	Assigned	Monthly
February 4, 2012	HAL	Option	Expired	Weekly
February 4, 2012	MOS	Option	Expired	Weekly
February 4, 2012	V	Option	Assigned	Weekly
February 2, 2012	GOOG	Option	STO	Weekly
February 2, 2012	CHK	Option	STO	Weekly
February 2, 2012	S	Option	STO	Monthly