THIS EVENING: Storms will continue to push into and around the Valley. Best Chances for them will be west of I-65. They will also be slow moving so if one is over your area it won't be budging much. Storms will begin to dissipate once the sun goes down. We could see some lingering showers or storms lasting until about 9 p.m.. The rest of the night will be quiet again.
SUMMARY: We will continue to see our daily chances for showers and storms. Our summertime weather pattern will continue all the way through the beginning of next week.
As higher pressure stalls over the Atlantic Ocean, a southerly wind funneling in warm, moist air will continue to flow over the Tennessee Valley. Depending on if we see sunshine, this could trigger unstable conditions to allow for thunderstorms to develop throughout the workweek and into this weekend. The best timing will be during the late morning and afternoon time when we warm up into the 80's across the Valley. At most, rain accumulations look to reach close to a 1/2 of an inch. Be flexible, although we don't look to see a washout, the development of our showers will be dependent on the sunshine we see.
THIS EVENING: We will be looking at a dry evening around the Valley. The rain and storms were forming just to the east of Jackson and DeKalb Counties.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: We don't expect much rain now during this time. We will be lacking disturbances to cause shower or storm activity. Stray showers will be possible but again not much rain is expected during this 48 hour span.
TUESDAY: Another wave of energy from the West will make an entrance to the Tennessee Valley by 8-9 A.M. this morning for the Shoals and slide eastward throughout the day. As we pick up on a few peaks of sunshine this morning, we'll see more unstable air than yesterday, which could prompt some stronger thunderstorms for the Tennessee Valley. Winds in excess of 60 mph, nickel size hail, and possibly 1 inch of rain accumulation could occur by late this afternoon. Showers will end by dinnertime where we'll be left with patchy fog and a few passing clouds.
WEDNESDAY-WEEKEND: We'll begin to see a pop up thunderstorm phase as southerly winds and more sunshine will trigger hit or miss showers throughout the afternoon time. Temperatures, because we'll see more sunshine, will warm us up into the mid to upper 80's. Rain accumulations will be no more than a quarter of an inch of rain per day.
TONIGHT: We will be mainly dry but we can't rule out isolated showers or storms.
TUESDAY: The morning shouldn't be active. That will depend on what happens with all the storms to our west. If they can hold together we will have morning storms. Those storms shouldn't be severe.
As we go through the afternoon our chances for severe weather increase. I do think this will mainly be a wind event but small to large hail would be possible. The probability for getting a tornado is fairly low given the atmospheric conditions throughout tomorrow afternoon and evening. We will have moderate CAPE or energy available but the shear won't be the best. In essence storms could rotate but it will depend on timing if a tornado is produced.
WEDNESDAY: We will see another round of showers and storms but the amounts will be far fewer than Tuesday. Rain totals between Monday and Wednesday could reach over 3" in some places. If enough storms can train over the same locations.
MEMORIAL DAY: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected throughout the morning and early afternoon hours today. Possible 1/2 to 3/4 of an inch of rain expected to accumulate. Nothing looks severe in terms of thunderstorm activity. This weak wave of energy generated by warm soupy air from the South may trigger frequent lightning, winds gusting as high as 30 to 40 mph, and small pea size hail.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy weather will continue with possible isolated thunderstorms by midnight. Lows will stay warm and muggy, only dipping down into the mid to upper 60's.
TUESDAY: Another wave of energy will move in for Tuesday, but the timing of and strength of this system will be determined based on how much sunshine we will see. If the cloud break, we could pick up on a few strong storms. If the cloud cover holds, we'll see a few isolated showers and non-severe thunderstorms. Temperatures will creep up into the mid 80's again.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: Isolated pop up showers and thunderstorms will stay in the forecast as round out the workweek. Again, this is triggered by a strong pull of southerly warm, moist air. Temperatures will climb into the mid 80's with another 1/2 to 3/4 of an inch of rain accumulation expected.
MEMORIAL DAY: It's looking more and more likely that we will see rain for Memorial day as well as and increased likelihood that it could have more of an impact on your plans. We are seeing an unstable air mass in place that will give us a chance at thunderstorms and enough of it to increase our chances at seeing some strong to severe storms as well. The main threat will be hail up to and exceeding 1 inch. Some of the stronger storms could produce some strong wind gust (so make sure you anchor down those pop up tents). Lightning is an under rated killer and rarely talked about, so if you are outside when storms come in make sure you head indoors to be safe.
TUESDAY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL: Tuesday looks to have a great chance at severe storms. The storm prediction center does have all of north Alabama under a 'Slight Risk' for Tuesday. We'll still have unstable air in place, but with a little extra wind shear which will increase the threat. Because of the wind shear, we will have a small tornado chance, but the main threats will be hail and gusty winds. Models bring in the line of storms during the afternoon hours. We also have a high threat of strong winds since convection will be a little more organized compared to what we'll have on Monday.
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND: Sunday expect temperatures in the mid 80’s. We’ll have mostly sunny skies through the day. Other than a stray shower possible over near the shoals, it will be a dry day, perfect for anything outdoors. The forecast changes on Monday. Temperatures will a little cooler, and the skies more overcast. Rain chances climb on Monday with a few showers in the forecast. Some locations will warm into the low to mid 80’s however, if you see showers during peek heating hours (12-4pm) you’ll likely stay in the low 80’s even the 70’s for a high.
RAIN THROUGH MID WEEK: Rain chances only go up after Monday. Computer models indicate a line of storms coming through Tuesday afternoon. We aren’t expecting any severe weather with this line, however we could see a strong storm or two. Things begin to quiet down as we near the end of the week. However, we’ll still see a small chance of showers for Thursday and Friday.
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND: We are kicking off the unofficial start to summer this weekend with summer like weather. We will be in the mid 80s both days with lots of sunshine. High pressure will move across the Valley but the moisture will be delayed until Sunday. So it will still feel great on Saturday! Dew points will push back into the mid to upper 60s for Sunday and Monday. As the high pressure moves further east our chances for a few showers and storms increase. The only chances for rain on Sunday look to be only for the Shoals.
The weather doesn't look the best on Memorial Day itself. We will see a few showers and storms but not everyone will see them. So I wouldn't cancel any of your plans for Monday just keep an eye to the sky and use common sense if there is a storm present and your outside. Lightning can strike up to 10 miles AWAY from the storm. So you may think you have time before the storm gets to your exact location but heed the advice from the National Weather Service. When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors!
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: It will feel warm and muggy with a chance for showers and storms. We should see more numerous storms these two days compared to Monday.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: Higher pressure will reign supreme, allowing the sun to shine with low humidity. High temperatures will go from the mid 70's to the mid 80's.
SUNDAY AND ON: A storm system will move over the Plains to send in a southerly wind to the Tennessee Valley fuel with warm, moist air from the Gulf. Humidity levels will increase along with the chance of pop up thunderstorms. Brief, heavy bursts of rain, small hail, and frequent lightning is expected.