tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-74980388127864606852024-03-13T05:55:48.219+05:30Stock-mktsA complete Financial blog with special emphasis on news, analysis and fluctuation in Indian Stock Markets & its indices NSE Nifty and BSE Sensex. Constant tracking of tug-of-war between the Bulls & the Bears. Also read about various Asset class such as IPO, Bullion, Commodities, Mutual Funds, Real Estate among others.Viral Rajnikant Dholakiahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14517054276981728056noreply@blogger.comBlogger57125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7498038812786460685.post-44026349141639747322010-02-17T15:46:00.002+05:302010-02-17T16:03:29.631+05:30Is Arbitrary Investment in Tax-Saving ELSS MF Scheme Just Before The Year End Justified?<span style="color:#3333ff;"><strong>Readers of this blog can read about how arbitrary decisions of putting funds into tax-saving ELSS schemes without due-diligence and proper analysis can adversely affect their financial status going forward. Below is the link where readers can read my Guest article posted on Trak.in:</strong></span><br /><br /><a href="http://trak.in/tags/business/2010/02/17/is-arbitrary-investment-in-tax-saving-elss-mf-scheme-before-the-year-end-justified/">http://trak.in/tags/business/2010/02/17/is-arbitrary-investment-in-tax-saving-elss-mf-scheme-before-the-year-end-justified/</a><br /><br /><span style="color:#006600;"><strong>The article aims at educating the readers about the fact that the objective of tax-saving should not hinder the cause of capital appreciation. Both should go hand-in-hand and with proper planning. It explains in detail how ELSS schemes are differs from Diversified equity schemes in its nature of operation and yielding returns.</strong></span><br /><span style="color:#006600;"></span><br /><span style="color:#006600;">Interested readers can place their relevant comments with respect to their views on the subject and other tax-planning method to their knowledge.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"><strong>Disclaimer:</strong> All data, content and/or reports posted by Viral Rajnikant Dholakia on this site are only for information and educational purpose of visitor/readers of this blog. It does not constitute to be a recommendation/offer/advice to buy or sell assets/securities in any form. Individuals/organizations are requested to take an informed call by consulting their Financial Advisor before acting on any matter/data published on this blog. This blog does not warrant of any kind of accuracy, adequacy and completeness of data, ideas or thoughts published in it. This site and Viral Rajnikant Dholakia assumes no responsibility or liability or loss or damage of any kind/nature for your trading and investment decisions and its consequent results.</span>Viral Rajnikant Dholakiahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14517054276981728056noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7498038812786460685.post-31388667188579796162010-02-11T11:17:00.022+05:302010-02-13T13:14:16.673+05:30The Power Of Doji<span style="font-family:verdana;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;"><span style="color:#000000;">Most of the ardent followers of chart patterns must have come across the term '<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">Doji</span>' either on business news channels or <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">Internet</span>. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">Doji</span> is a chart pattern which signifies indecision in the market. It is a candlestick in which opening and closing prices for the period under consideration are same. It is a major trend reversal signal especially at market tops or even at market bottoms.</span> </span><br /><br /><br /><p><span style="font-family:verdana;"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5436871521024246578" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 136px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 189px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxed20gQ6gsZjrVw9FbQaFZsBPJfrgHuJtHppxqrZWQa3TmiBATfXeUm_iXG7X6nu5N4Qnl8cmLZlU620uJUSZHLgc8APO5ljUXhBqMr_LDdPV43DfXrrqXxZugCmTzoctiK0NhqcqcIGZ/s400/doji.bmp" border="0" /></span></p><p><strong><span style="font-size:78%;"></span></strong></p><p><strong><span style="font-size:78%;">.</span></strong></p><p><em><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doji"><span style="font-family:verdana;"><strong><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">Wikipedia</span></strong></span></a></em><span style="font-family:verdana;"><strong> describes <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">Doji</span> as,</strong> <em>"The <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">doji</span> is a commonly found pattern in a candlestick chart of financially traded assets (stocks, bonds, futures, etc). It is characterized by being small in length -- meaning a small trading range -- with an opening and closing price that are equal."</em> </span></p><p><span style="font-family:Verdana;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;"><strong>It further interprets a <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">Doji</span> as,</strong> <em>"The <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">doji</span> represents indecision in the market. A <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8">doji</span> is not as significant if the market is not clearly trending, as non-trending markets are inherently indicative of indecision. If the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_9">doji</span> forms in an uptrend or downtrend, this is normally seen as significant, as it is a signal that the buyers are losing conviction when formed in an uptrend and a signal that sellers are losing conviction if seen in a downtrend. Most traders will place greater significance on the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_10">doji</span> when it forms in a market that is in overbought or oversold territory as noted by oscillators like relative strength index or <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_11">MACD</span>."</em></span><br /><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;"><strong><span style="font-size:130%;color:#3333ff;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_12">Doji</span>: A Potent Top Reversal Indicator</span></strong> </span></p><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;"><strong>It must be noted that a <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_13">Doji</span> is more potent towards its formation at the top of the rally or at the bottom of the downward correction, rather than in between the up or down journey of the markets.</strong> A <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_14">Doji</span> at the upper end of the rally is a sign of exhaustion of the power of the bulls to further pull the market higher. As soon as the bears get a sniff of this lack of conviction among bulls, the charge swaps hands from bulls to bears at least for some time to come.</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;"></span><br /><strong><span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:130%;color:#3333ff;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_15">Doji</span>: To be Coupled with Confirmation</span></strong><br /><strong><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:130%;"></span></strong><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;"><strong>A <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_16">Doji</span> in itself is not a confirmation of the prevailing trend's reversal.</strong> It needs to be coupled and confirmed by the follow-up reversing move with in next few candlestick patterns. As such, a <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_17">Doji</span> at a market top could be a warning for the bulls to cover longs and remain neutral only to further initiate shorts once the bearish confirmation is received. A bearish confirmation is much needed before initiating any short position as a trend reversal could also mean change of trend to 'lateral' <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_18">consolidation</span> and not necessarily a complete reversal of trend.</span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;"></span><br /><strong><span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;">Nifty & <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_19">Doji</span></span></strong><br /><strong><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;"></span></strong><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;">In the below given charts, we will see how a couple of <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_20">Dojis</span> stalled the market rally around Nifty 5300 level during first week of January 2010 which led markets to consolidate & further correct on witnessing one more <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_21">doji</span> around January 20, 2010.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:85%;">Charts Courtesy: </span><a href="http://www.icharts.in/"><span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:85%;">www.icharts.in</span></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiVepIIxninAz1Xx5xdAOi-AOW9tiB9zjm8TXoTvCQ8SkmQ7hzvPkBqOpvB0UZu7eCvgl-w8iUwdlf9oCxlxONtBRQb5prFZeCrB3wy_7-4K1nXhg0lGKtPnlH44wDQqeqnP8hX10pJvkJ/s1600-h/k.bmp"><span style="font-family:verdana;"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5436879372936106018" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 241px" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiVepIIxninAz1Xx5xdAOi-AOW9tiB9zjm8TXoTvCQ8SkmQ7hzvPkBqOpvB0UZu7eCvgl-w8iUwdlf9oCxlxONtBRQb5prFZeCrB3wy_7-4K1nXhg0lGKtPnlH44wDQqeqnP8hX10pJvkJ/s400/k.bmp" border="0" /></span></a><span style="font-family:verdana;"><br /></span><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;"><br /></span><span style="font-family:verdana;">In the above Daily charts of Nifty, we see how the rally in the benchmark index, which was in an up trend since December 22 starting from Nifty 4950 level, got stalled by the emergence of 'twin' <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_22">doji</span> on January 05 and 06. The existence of <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_23">Doji</span> after the rally indicated exhaustion of the up trend. However, bulls were in no mood to completely give up just yet nor were bears in any mood to let bulls continue their charge. This ensured that the Nifty moved in a congestion band of 5200 to 5300 range. At least, we can say that the sudden emergence of <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_24">Doji</span> at higher levels ensured a trend 'Change' from bullish to lateral movement.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;">It was only after the existence of the third <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_25">Doji</span> on January 20, that the bears were able to take a complete charge of the situation in favour of a correction in the trend. A long bearish candlestick formed on the follow-up session of the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_26">Doji</span> day (January 21) was enough confirmation evidence for the bears that the up trend is over at least for some time to come.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;">So, in effect, for a market which was powerfully in hands of bulls since quite some time needed 3 <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_27">occurrences</span> of <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_28">Doji</span> (read indecisive attempts) in order to turn the trend over head in favour of bears. The first two <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_29">doji</span> led to Trend 'Change' and the third was a final coup to start a Trend 'Reversal'. But the change was inevitable as <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_30">doji</span> at market tops indicated lack of certainty and vigour amongst bulls to carry market higher. Just have a look at the Resistance line as defined by the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_31">Doji</span> formed on January 06, which proved to be a stiff market top ever since then.</span><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;"><br /></span><span style="font-family:verdana;"></span><span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;"><strong><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_32">Doji</span> in the Midst of a Trend</strong></span><br /><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;">Again, on January 28, we witnessed a <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_33">Doji</span> at the midst of a down trend. This <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_34">doji</span> indicated lack of vigour amongst bears to drag market further down at least for the time being. The <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_35">doji</span> was followed twin hammers on January 29 and February 01. The <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_36">doji</span> led the markets to consolidate for the next 5 sessions as can be seen from above charts. However, the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_37">doji</span> which appeared in the midst of the downtrend was not so successful in reversing the trend as it was at the higher band of the market. This shows that <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_38">Doji</span> is highly effective and most potent at market tops than during the midst of the up or down trend. </span><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;"></span><br /><strong><span style="font-family:verdana;">So, it is very crucial to determine as to where the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_39">Doji</span> occurs and during which stage of market. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_40">Doji</span> in midst of the trend transition need not be as potent as at market top or bottom. At the same time, a <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_41">Doji</span> indication is best served when coupled with other confirmation evidences of trend change.</span></strong><br /><strong><span style="font-family:Verdana;"></span></strong><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;"></span><br /><strong><span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:130%;color:#006600;">Variations of <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_42">Doji</span></span></strong><br /><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;">1) Gravestone <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_43">Doji</span>: Lows, Opening & Closing are Same.</span><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;">2) Dragonfly <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_44">Doji</span>: Highs, Opening & Closing are Same.</span><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;">3) Long-Legged <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_45">Doji</span>: Volatile Highs or Lows, but Same Closing and Opening.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><strong>Disclaimer:</strong> All data, content and/or reports posted by Viral <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_46">Rajnikant</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_47">Dholakia</span> on this site are only for information and educational purpose of visitor/readers of this blog. It does not constitute to be a recommendation/offer/advice to buy or sell assets/securities in any form. Individuals/organizations are requested to take an informed call by consulting their Financial Advisor before acting on any matter/data published on this blog. This blog does not warrant of any kind of accuracy, adequacy and completeness of data, ideas or thoughts published in it. This site and Viral <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_48">Rajnikant</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_49">Dholakia</span> assumes no responsibility or liability or loss or damage of any kind/nature for your trading and investment decisions and its consequent results.</span></span> </span>Viral Rajnikant Dholakiahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14517054276981728056noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7498038812786460685.post-19019682986766468832010-01-30T11:31:00.029+05:302010-02-01T13:52:05.089+05:30Trend Changer: Has Nifty Hammered A Near-term Bottom?<span style="color:#3333ff;">Firstly, to inform the readers over here that this post and the discussion of the chart pattern herein pertains only to the 'Near term' trend of the market. The Candle stick chart pattern as depicted in the below attached chart relates to a 'Trend Reversal' Pattern which could signify either a reversal in the prevailing down trend or simply a trend bottom/changer.</span><br /><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;">Nifty has been in a short-term down trend after witnessing stiff Resistance around 5280 level. The 5 day short term RSI has climbed down from 70 to 15 during the downward <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">journey</span> of markets, yet another hint of market in over-sold zone in near term horizon.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:85%;color:#000000;">Charts Courtesy: </span><a href="http://www.icharts.in/"><span style="font-size:85%;color:#000000;">www.icharts.in</span></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnNl6Jh69xseQz-KjcqqAHr4__1xDvDB7xfUU52BkgxMqvHsUqPcOczsYThDXAGhgrj_k2zW-ZtZoewvBox3_HjndUTXQ_3B3zF_clcNnf6AXytJt15DaJb4foahy1R8H6DRFTcqUsKGVw/s1600-h/untitled.bmp"><span style="color:#3333ff;"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5432416978869216050" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 331px" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnNl6Jh69xseQz-KjcqqAHr4__1xDvDB7xfUU52BkgxMqvHsUqPcOczsYThDXAGhgrj_k2zW-ZtZoewvBox3_HjndUTXQ_3B3zF_clcNnf6AXytJt15DaJb4foahy1R8H6DRFTcqUsKGVw/s400/untitled.bmp" border="0" /></span></a><br /><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;"><strong>Hammering Out A Bottom</strong></span><br /><br /><a href="http://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/hammer.asp"><strong><span style="color:#ff0000;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">Investopedia</span>.com</span></strong></a><span style="color:#ff0000;"><strong> defines a Hammer as,</strong><em> "A price pattern in candlestick charting that occurs when a security trades significantly lower than its opening, but rallies later in the day to close either above or close to its opening price. This pattern forms a hammer-shaped candlestick."</em></span><br /><br /><span style="color:#ff0000;">It further adds,<em> "A hammer occurs after a security has been declining, possibly suggesting the market is attempting to determine a bottom.The signal does not mean bullish investors have taken full control of a security, it simply indicates that the bulls are strengthening."</em></span><br /><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;">A<strong> Hammer</strong> is a Bottom Reversal Pattern. The rationale behind the analysis and logic of this pattern formulation is explained as under:</span><br /><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"><strong>1)</strong> The market is in a pronounced downtrend. </span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"><strong>2)</strong> A candle stick with small real body but a large lower shadow appears at the end of the downtrend indicating some sort of reversal in prevailing downtrend. </span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"><strong>3)</strong> The bulls took charge of the situation after bears tested the lower waters but could not sustain/hold their short positions with conviction. </span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"><strong>4)</strong> Taking note of the situation, the bulls took the lead from the front and closed near the day's high with little or no shadow at all.</span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"><strong>5)</strong></span> <span style="color:#3333ff;">The primary idea from here is that further downward slide could come for a halt atleast for very near term & at best- a trend reversal towards up side could be seen.</span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"><strong>6)</strong> In very near term, bears can recoup the control over markets only if the lows tested on the hammer forming day is breached.</span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;">The pattern is typically characterized by a long lower shadow with a small real body on the top. The color of the real body (white or red) is not of greater significance while studying the pattern. However, a white body gets a first preference as it signifies that markets sold off as a last leg of the near term down trend and bulls were good enough to bounce back to ensure that markets closed near to the highs of the session. The waters at the lower levels were tested and found good enough for a reversal. The pattern signifies that bulls are eager to gain some lost ground in days to come.</span><br /><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;">Another study that goes into the Hammer pattern is that the lower shadow should be <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">at least</span> twice the size of the small real body on the top. It signifies that bulls attempted a significant come back from the lows to prove it's dominance. However, even without the fulfillment of above condition a Hammer is a hammer, but its effectiveness could be questionable and uncertain. A smaller real body coupled with longer lower shadow will give the hammer a more complete look and meaning. After all, the chart patterns are nothing but the mirror image of a trader/investor's psychology and their collective action put on paper.</span><br /><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;">Further, it is desirable for traders who want to bet on this reversal chart pattern to confirm the effectiveness of this bullish hammer pattern by checking the follow-up chart signals (of next 2-3 sessions) in look-out for bullish White Candles or even bullish Continuation patterns.</span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#cc33cc;"><strong>Nifty & Hammer</strong></span><br /><br /><span style="color:#cc33cc;">On January 29, 2009, Nifty established a low at 4765 and from there on bounced back to close at 4880, a little above the day's opening at 4825. This led to emergence of a small real body with a long lower shadow and a very minute upper shadow. Add to it, on the preceding day of witnessing the hammer pattern, the Nifty witnessed a '<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">Doji</span>' day which is also a trend reversal signal indicating an equal tug-of-war between the bulls and the bears. <em>A Doji followed by a Hammer could be hinting towards a dissipation of prior (short term down trend) trend's force possibly with a last attempt to test lower waters on a Hammering day.</em> <em>Hence, a <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">doji</span> followed by a hammer pattern is a stronger clue of trend change, in direction of the original bullish trend.</em></span><br /><span style="color:#cc33cc;"></span><br /><strong><span style="color:#cc33cc;">Further, if Nifty closes below the low hammered by Nifty at 4765 on January 29, the analysis and prediction of the bullish reversal pattern can be termed as failed/void and could act as a significant stop loss level for Traders.</span><br /></strong><br /><span style="color:#006600;"><strong>Note:</strong> Quite often, it may also happen that the reversal patterns may play out well in the near term, but the <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">effectiveness</span> of the trend fizzles out eventually over medium term horizon. So, it is necessary to check and update the view in light of changing market times and environment periodically. Like, for example, a bullish reversal pattern in 'Hammer' ensures that markets move up. But, over a period of time, markets may develop yet another reversal pattern but this time in bearish bias in form of a 'Hanging-Man' pattern which signifies a Top, eventually pulling the markets down. So, it is necessary to review chart patterns in the light of passage of time and development of various chart patterns.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"><strong>Disclaimer:</strong> All data, content and/or reports posted by Viral <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">Rajnikant</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">Dholakia</span> on this site are only for information and educational purpose of visitor/readers of this blog. It does not constitute to be a recommendation/offer/advice to buy or sell assets/securities in any form. Individuals/organizations are requested to take an informed call by consulting their Financial Advisor before acting on any matter/data published on this blog. This blog does not warrant of any kind of accuracy, adequacy and completeness of data, ideas or thoughts published in it. This site and Viral <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8">Rajnikant</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_9">Dholakia</span> assumes no responsibility or liability or loss or damage of any kind/nature for your trading and investment decisions and its consequent results.</span>Viral Rajnikant Dholakiahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14517054276981728056noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7498038812786460685.post-11743505159109255062010-01-23T12:18:00.018+05:302010-01-23T14:10:04.573+05:30What Exactly is a Market Crash?<span style="font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;">What Exactly is a Market Crash?</span><br /><span style="color:#ff0000;">Summary of an Article from www.stock-market-crash.net:</span><br /><a href="http://www.stock-market-crash.net/what.htm">http://www.stock-market-crash.net/what.htm</a><br /><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;">The above site which has wonderfully narrated the periodical moves and psyche of investors towards stock market's bull and bear phases. The site has explained the way in which the so-called 'Smart Money' takes entry into the market by way of gradual accumulation at lower levels where valuations are cheap and below its intrinsic value, but retail investors fret to take entry at this point in time due to over-all saggy investment mood.</span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;">The site elaborates as to how smartest accumulation takes place at lowest levels & gradually other lesser smart funds take entry at the 2nd lowest step of market with inside news of recovery spreading over. It further elaborates as to how retail investors remain a mere spectator during the above phases of smart money entry into the market and how the gullible lot enter at valuations which could be termed as 'Fair' but not longer cheap. It says that once the retail investors start earning money fuelled by over-all optimistic environment, the sophisticated lot gradually takes the Exit route and moves towards safety net as valuations move forward from 'Fair' levels to 'Expensive' levels.</span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;">The site further cautions our attention as to how a number of companies become public and come out with IPO to sell their story amongst gullible retail investors. The optimism reaches such high horizons that the lessons from the just-witnessed extreme bearish conditions are forgotten and 'Money-making' becomes the mantra from tips and recommendations from Brokerage houses and other smaller agencies.</span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span><br /><span style="color:#006600;"><strong>Note:</strong> Readers can Read this Article in Detail by Clicking on the Link attached at the start of this post. <strong>This is Not A Paid Review Of Any Kind For The Above Site.</strong> I've posted this link for the benefit of the new investors who would find this article helpful in determining the different phases of markets without being carried over by the prevailing phase of excess euphoria which has seen Nifty jump from 2500 to 5000 with in a short time span of just 1 year, which needs some sort of consoldiation/correction before the upward journey flourishes in a big way. I was able to co-relate with some of the inputs in the article with the recently witnessed bust and boom rounds of last 1 year in Indian stock markets.</span><br /><br /><strong><span style="color:#ff0000;">Readers' Comments Are Welcome From Those Who Are Willing & Eager To Share Their Experience & Lessons From Boom-N-Bust Cycle Witnessed Recently.</span></strong><br /><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"><strong>Disclaimer:</strong> All data, content and/or reports posted by Viral Rajnikant Dholakia on this site are only for information and educational purpose of visitor/readers of this blog. It does not constitute to be a recommendation/offer/advice to buy or sell assets/securities in any form. Individuals/organizations are requested to take an informed call by consulting their Financial Advisor before acting on any matter/data published on this blog. This blog does not warrant of any kind of accuracy, adequacy and completeness of data, ideas or thoughts published in it. This site and Viral Rajnikant Dholakia assumes no responsibility or liability or loss or damage of any kind/nature for your trading and investment decisions and its consequent results.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"></span>Viral Rajnikant Dholakiahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14517054276981728056noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7498038812786460685.post-86922433050340128672010-01-14T17:04:00.012+05:302010-01-19T15:53:20.824+05:30Markets in 2010<strong><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span></strong><br /><strong><span style="font-family:verdana;color:#993300;">A fortnight away from the dawn of the calender year 2010 and in trying to address queries from some of the readers as to how will the markets fare in this new year, let us do some crystal gazing about the market levels and it's gyration in the year 2010. Doing so could be as tough as gambling with lowest probability of our prediction coming true. The only base that we have to predict the future course of market for here is- the performance of the equity markets in the preceding year 2009 and development and diagnosis of Corporate fundamentals post economic slowdown mostly inherited from global recession.</span><br /></strong><br /><strong><span style="color:#006600;">First,</span><span style="color:#006600;"> let me jot-down a few determinants which could go down farther in influencing the equity market levels in the calender year 2010:</span></strong><br /><br /><span style="color:#006600;">1) Steep rise in Global financial markets:'V'- shaped Recovery in 2009.<br />2) Health of Global economy especially US and European Nations.</span><br /><span style="color:#006600;">3) Pace of development of Emerging economies.</span><br /><span style="color:#006600;">4) <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">Sustainability</span> of Corporate Earnings in line with market valuations.</span><br /><span style="color:#006600;">5) Management of Stimulus measures by global Central banks.</span><br /><span style="color:#006600;">6) Control over Inflation: Crude, Metals & Food Article Prices.</span><br /><span style="color:#006600;">7) Fundamental shift in key Policies & Currency Rates.</span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span><br /><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;"><span style="color:#3333ff;">Coming back to Equity markets in India, which has seen the most extreme of pessimism and optimism in a matter of last couple of years, the benchmark index Nifty has swayed like more than a see-saw from the highs of 6000 levels to the trough of 2500 in the year 2008, only to bounce back from the jaws of slowdown to reach 5250 levels just as I am writing this. The jump has been a spectacular 100% plus from the extreme lows, mostly aided by global recovery led by stimulus measures from various central banks.</span><br /><br /></span><p><span style="font-family:verdana;color:#3333ff;">The optimism sensed since last one month reminds one of the peak of any bull run where almost all mid-caps and small-caps have participated in the rally with vigour. But, the point to ponder over here is that we have already doubled from the lows in a span of short time of 1 year. Is it possible to keep posting such spectacular gains time and again? Is it possible to register another 20-30% rally in next 1 year?</span></p><p><span style="font-family:verdana;color:#cc33cc;">The answer lies in the fact that if the corporate earnings over next 1 year shows signs of as much of robust growth as equity market returns, it could well be a dream come true. But, if the above condition is not fulfilled and market goes on to notch yet another 20-30% returns in 2010, it could be termed as a 'bubble', which is not backed by appropriate earnings growth from corporate world. The bubble could be due to excess liquidity around the globe or any other reason leading to favouritism and growth of market levels in particular area, with little support from corporate growth.</span></p><p><span style="font-family:verdana;color:#cc33cc;">This draws us to conclusion that most probably the first-half of calender year 2010 could be a year of consolidation or a mild correction. Also, if one takes note of the market rally in last one year, it was in line with most of the global markets and in <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">sync</span> with other emerging market rally. If, for any <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">reason</span>, the global rally is to stop over medium term horizon, it is quite likely that Indian markets will also catch the flue and may need some rest time.</span></p><p><span style="font-family:verdana;color:#cc33cc;"><strong>However, based on the highlights and performance of the upcoming March and June 2010 Quarters, markets may bounce back around last quarter of 2010 and possibly first half of calender year 2011. This could be the time, if all is well with the globe, when <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">Sensex</span> and Nifty might try inching to a higher horizon, say, cross previous highs and much higher targets. However, above is simply a guess-work and prediction into the future with no guarantee of what will markets do in times to come.</strong><br /></span><span style="font-family:verdana;color:#cc33cc;"><span style="color:#000000;"></span></span></p><p><span style="font-family:verdana;color:#cc33cc;"><span style="color:#000000;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><strong>Disclaimer:</strong> All data, content and/or reports posted by Viral Rajnikant Dholakia on this site are only for information and educational purpose of visitor/readers of this blog. It does not constitute to be a recommendation/offer/advice to buy or sell assets/securities in any form. Individuals/organizations are requested to take an informed call by consulting their Financial Advisor before acting on any matter/data published on this blog. This blog does not warrant of any kind of accuracy, adequacy and completeness of data, ideas or thoughts published in it. This site and Viral Rajnikant Dholakia assumes no responsibility or liability or loss or damage of any kind/nature for your trading and investment decisions and its consequent results.</span></span></p></span>Viral Rajnikant Dholakiahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14517054276981728056noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7498038812786460685.post-62031088574326580322009-12-16T12:53:00.012+05:302009-12-17T10:59:14.091+05:30Market Mantra: Valuation By Time Parameter<p><span style="font-family:verdana;"><span style="font-size:130%;color:#3333ff;"><strong></strong></span></span></p><p><strong><em></em></strong></p><p><em><strong>"Old Time, that greatest and longest established spinner of all!.... his factory is a secret place, his work is noiseless, and his hands are mutes."</strong> ~ Charles Dickens</em></p><p>In this post, we'll see how the ticking time gradually killed the <em>valuations</em> of some of the renowned stocks based on some negative impact which led to under-performance of these stocks on the bourses, even as the over-all market valuations are quite near to those witnessed at the peak of the bull run last time. Read on...</p><p><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;"><span style="font-size:130%;color:#3333ff;"><strong>The Adventurous Journey</strong></span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;">A year back when equity markets the world over were at the <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">helm</span> of extreme pessimism, who would have imagined that the benchmark index Nifty, which witnessed a trough of 2500, would be at 5000 plus levels as early as December 2009. But, <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">that's</span> how stock markets work, contrary to imagination of most of the market participants. The recover in itself is not surprising but the 'pace' of its journey has certainly stumped most of them including the ones involved in the forecasting job- the Analyst community.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#006600;"><strong>Market's Collective Wisdom</strong></span><br /><br /><span style="color:#006600;">In this post, the discussion will revolve around how markets have valued some of the prominent stocks from various different sectors and industries, spanning the journey from previous bull market to the recently witnessed great recession and from there back to current spate of revival and recovery on the equity <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">bourses</span>. What are the aspects that the markets have taken a prior notice of, before giving the right kind of valuation fit for respective individual companies discussed below.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;"><strong>Factors Determining the Valuations</strong></span><br /><br /><span style="color:#ff0000;">While deciding the kind of <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">valuation</span> that each of these individual companies deserve, markets have taken into account as to how these listed companies have fared all through it's journey from optimistic bullish times to pessimistic slowing times of global recession. How has these companies managed their all-important 'Cash' reserves? How has these companies fared in the process of cost-cutting and rationalization during the slow-down times? What is the impact on their 'Order Book' due to slowing global demand? </span><br /><span style="color:#ff0000;"></span><br /><span style="color:#ff0000;">How has some of these companies managed their 'Leveraged Buy-outs' which were executed during the times when liquidity was flush in the system? Have these companies entered into M&A deals which did not warrant high valuations? How capable are these companies in servicing their debt taken to fund their expansion plans? Are they in position to bring down their borrowing costs?</span><br /><br /><span style="color:#ff0000;">Some other factors that goes into valuing the companies during the journey from bullish to bearish times and back to bullish times are the test that the 'Management' of the company goes through in passing slow-down phases. <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">That's</span> not all, markets also take note of the change in fundamentals of the industry in which the individual companies may be operating in. Say, for example, the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">Telecom</span> sector - the <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">prospects</span> for the individual companies have worsened after cluttering of new entrants in the space leading to 'Price Wars'.</span><br /></span><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;"><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"><strong>Now, we shall directly deal with selected few individual companies and see what math has been worked out by the markets in determining the valuation for these companies on the Indian <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">bourses</span>:</strong></span><br /><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"><span style="font-size:130%;">1) <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8">Suzlon</span> Energy:</span> This much touted stock from the renewable energy space got a rude treatment from the markets based on its performance. The company, which is involved in wind power generation, had taken a huge debt to fund the buy-out of firms like Hansen Transmission and <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_9">REpower</span>. </span></span><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;"><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span></span><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;"><span style="color:#3333ff;">The woes continued for the company with the instances of blade cracks on more than one <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_10">occasion</span> during the operation of the wind turbines. The company had to provide for blade retrofit & <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_11">replacement</span> compensation to the clients. The markets clearly gave a thumbs-down to this inefficient management and <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_12">repetitive</span> product accessory-related woes experienced by the company all this while. This stock, whose all-time highs lays some where between Rs.400 to 500 levels, is currently quoting around Rs.80 on the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_13">bourses</span> way below its all-time highs.</span><br /><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"><span style="font-size:130%;">2) <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_14">Punj</span> Lloyd:</span> This company which is one of the biggest Engineering & Construction player after L&T, and specializes in laying pipes and building oil and gas storage tanks and terminals, got no better treatment from the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_15">bourses</span>. The stock corrected from its all-time high of Rs.600 to a trough level of Rs.70 when Nifty bottomed out at 2500. However, during the rise of the benchmark index from 2500 to 5000, this fast-growing mid-cap engineering stock could merely double with currently quoting at Rs.200 on the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_16">bourses</span>, as against its all-time highs of Rs.600. The company's results got <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_17">negatively</span> impacted due to litigation between its UK based subsidiary Simon Carves and <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_18">SABIC</span> Petrochemicals.</span><br /></span><span style="color:#3333ff;"><br /></span><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span><span style="font-family:verdana;"><span style="color:#3333ff;">While comparing the stock with L&T, the markets have given thumbs-down to <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_19">Punj</span> Lloyd with respect to the fact that most of the L&T operations are domestic oriented. So, during the global recession, it is but quite obvious that Punj Lloyd was largely impacted with it's wide presence across the slow-down infected globe. Also, during the ongoing recovery, India has shown sharp recovery (and hence better recovery in stock price of L&T) as compared to other developed and developing markets where <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_20">Punj</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_21">loyd</span> has more prominence. Thus markets have tagged a few genuine reasons for the under-performance of stock price of <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_22">Punj</span> Lloyd vis-a-vis L&T; like slow global recovery than in India, decline in oil consumption & consequently its <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_23">capex</span> requirement due to low real demand for oil and gas, among others.</span><br /><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"><span style="font-size:130%;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_24">3) Alok</span> Industries:</span> This company is a leading textile manufacturer whose order book is full and providing good revenue visibility. The company has also witnessed a sustained growth in its revenues and profits. This stock had witnessed an all-time high of around Rs.100-105 during the peak of the bull run at Nifty 6000 levels. However, currently the stock is quoting at around Rs.20 since quite a long time. A sharp run-down in the stock price as compared to it's all-time highs.</span><br /><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;">The stock has everything positive about it; right from catering to major retailer like <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_25">Wal</span>-Mart and having domestic presence in form of H&A stores in the retail segment. However, the major aspect that is going contrary for the company's stock valuation is it's High Debt-Equity Ratio. Though, with the recent Right issue by the company, the high debt ratio is likely to moderate to some extent. Most of the company's interest liabilities for its long-term debt is subsidized under textile promotion scheme. But, certainly, markets have clearly given a thumbs-down to a good business model of <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_26">alok</span> Industries due to its High Debt-Equity Ratio.</span><br /><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"><span style="font-size:130%;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_27">4) Aban</span> Offshore:</span> Oil services firm <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_28">Aban</span> Offshore which lets out oil rigs for hire bought Norway's <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_29">Sinvest</span> three years ago in 2006. The company has about Rs.16000 <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_30">crore</span> of debt on its books with exorbitant high debt-equity ratio. The markets have given an extreme thumbs down to this company when compared to its all time highs of Rs.5000 to 6000 during the bull run as against Rs.1200 quoting currently.</span><br /><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;">Apart from this, the global slowdown & collapse in crude oil prices led to fall in <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_31">capex</span> towards oil exploration activities leading to slump in letting-out rigs to oil companies. This slump in demand for its services along with high interest rates payable towards acquisition of <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_32">Sinvest</span> led to fall in income for the company.</span><br /><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"><span style="font-size:130%;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_33">5) Tata</span> Steel:</span> On acquiring <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_34">Corus</span>, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_35">Tata</span> Steel went on to be the world's 6<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_36">th</span> largest Steel maker. The Indian steel maker had acquired <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_37">Corus</span> for about a whooping $13 billion two years back in a bid to have a global presence. However, the subsequently following global crisis led to demand destruction for steel in reduced demand in sectors like automobiles and <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_38">construction</span>, particularly <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_39">adversely</span> affecting <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_40">Corus</span> performance & operations. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_41">Tata</span> Steel incurred a <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_42">consolidated</span> net loss of Rs.2710 <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_43">crore</span> in the quarter ended September 2009. The stock made an all-time high of Rs.900-1000 during the peak of the bull run & is now quoting around Rs.550, indicating a steep discount to the peak prices then.</span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"><span style="font-size:130%;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_44">6) Bharti</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_45">Airtel</span> & Reliance Comm:</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_46">Bharti</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_47">Airtel</span>, along with Reliance Communications, are the stocks from the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_48">Telecom</span> sector which are under-performing big time on the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_49">bourses</span> due to the intense 'Price Wars' among the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_50">telecom</span> operators. During the previous bull run, when these stocks were <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_51">distinct</span> out-performers the record subscriber additions & rising <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_52">ARPU's</span> were the major attraction. </span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;">However, as time passed the Tier 1 cities have almost turned 100% wireless by now, more so leaving the scope of expansion only in the rural India & somewhat Tier 2 and 3 cities. Not to mention the upcoming Mobile Number Portability which will intensify the competition. This all reflects well in the current low valuations even in rising markets. Reliance Communications whose all-time highs lay around Rs.800 is quoting at a fraction of its peaks at Rs.180 currently.</span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span><br /><span style="color:#000000;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><strong>Disclaimer:</strong> All data, content and/or reports posted by Viral <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_53">Rajnikant</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_54">Dholakia</span> on this site are only for information and educational purpose of visitor/readers of this blog. It does not constitute to be a recommendation/offer/advice to buy or sell assets/securities in any form. Individuals/organizations are requested to take an informed call by consulting their Financial Advisor before acting on any matter/data published on this blog. This blog does not warrant of any kind of accuracy, adequacy and completeness of data, ideas or thoughts published in it. This site and Viral <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_55">Rajnikant</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_56">Dholakia</span> assumes no responsibility or liability or loss or damage of any kind/nature for your trading and investment decisions and its consequent results.</span></span></span></p><p><span style="font-family:Verdana;font-size:85%;"></span></p>Viral Rajnikant Dholakiahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14517054276981728056noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7498038812786460685.post-3791622343039093692009-10-14T13:13:00.020+05:302009-10-18T15:21:31.469+05:30Market Outlook & Diwali Wishes<span style="font-family:verdana;"><span style="color:#3333ff;"><strong>Mr Faisal <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_0" class="blsp-spelling-error">Humayun</span> has posted a query in the Comments Section, on my suggestion regarding prevailing Nifty Trend and Technicals. He was of the view of expecting some correction around Nifty 5000 levels which seems to be getting delayed. His Comment was as follows:</strong><br /></span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"><em>Hi Viral,</em></span><br /></span><span style="font-family:verdana;"><span style="color:#006600;"><span style="color:#3333ff;"><em>It would be great if you can provide some insights on the markets at present. I personally expected correction at 4950-5000 levels. But that does not seem to be happening.What do Nifty technicals suggest?</em></span><br /></span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;color:#000000;">Charts Courtesy: </span></span><a href="http://www.icharts.in/"><span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:85%;color:#000000;">www.icharts.in</span></a><span style="font-family:verdana;"><br /></span><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirFTO3IEYpfxyRBdHGvknQ0BIw5S0FnqBNXnaRV9WjkAy1HLxsRTSgO7Pr3Iy-0iyEosUvdzCpwg0HrerHepiaO20e8FmTN-lvZooEJYvBU1rUusIAhdvIYyNyi1fMvbTFjwjsPaux09zq/s1600-h/untitled.bmp"><span style="font-family:verdana;color:#006600;"><img style="MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 400px; FLOAT: left; HEIGHT: 241px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5392358328495439074" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirFTO3IEYpfxyRBdHGvknQ0BIw5S0FnqBNXnaRV9WjkAy1HLxsRTSgO7Pr3Iy-0iyEosUvdzCpwg0HrerHepiaO20e8FmTN-lvZooEJYvBU1rUusIAhdvIYyNyi1fMvbTFjwjsPaux09zq/s400/untitled.bmp" /></span></a><span style="font-family:verdana;"><br /><br /></span><p><strong><span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:130%;color:#006600;">Nifty Outlook & View</span></strong></p><span style="font-family:verdana;"><span style="color:#006600;">From what I can pick-up from the Nifty charts attached above, the markets seems to be in a broad tapering range which is slowly but steadily closing out as markets move forward. This tapering range is marked by Pink-coloured trend lines 1 and 2 in the above charts.</span><br /><br /><span style="color:#006600;">At some stage, I presume that these trend lines which are tapering in nature will eventually close-out and markets will make a decisive and an expanded move from the current levels. The up side could be as high as 5250-5450, a rally which could be fuelled on the back of Panic Buying among investors. At that point of time, the Analyst fraternity could well be predicting about Nifty 6000 level to be on cards. This could be the time of excesses, if such a situation gets played out. At such times of euphoric rallies, if all the remaining laggard stocks and sectors which have not yet participated in the rally by substantial means, starts rallying; it could be a warning of sorts that we're getting nearer to have topped-out over medium term horizon.</span><br /><br /><span style="color:#006600;">However, the above is based on the assumption that the up side break out could be the order of the day in the times to come. But, it is not necessary that market will oblige this view of mine. The break out could as well be on the downside. In that case, my first levels to fall-0n for support would be Nifty 4900 levels where the markets has sought support for 3-4 times in last 20-25 sessions. Below Nifty 4900, the next big support lies around 4780-4800 zone, which is also coincided by its 50 EMA support zone. As of now, as the trend remains up, traders should remain long until initial support of Nifty 4900 stays-on. Investors on the sidelines will have to go through a painful waiting period. If they lose patience, a trap could be well-laid in 5250-5450 zone, which will act as Panic buying zone with tons of optimism.</span><br /><span style="color:#006600;"></span></span><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;"><strong>The recent downward move from Nifty 5080 to 4920 & finding a support over there is ample evidence that markets have again sought a support at its Lower trend line (Pink trend Line 1).</strong></span> <span style="font-family:verdana;"><strong>This trend line will slowly move higher with time as market advances in upward direction.</strong></span><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;"><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;color:#3333ff;">Mr <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_1" class="blsp-spelling-error">Vikas</span> has posted a query on Diwali Shopping List</span></strong><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"><strong>To start with, for Diwali shopping list, I would happily recommend sweets, crackers and new costumes as of now rather than stocks from equity markets. Markets has more than doubled from the trough levels witnessed before 7 months. However, the fact that markets have doubled is not a concern, but the compressed time horizon in which this sharp rally has <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_2" class="blsp-spelling-corrected">occurred</span> is concerning and hair-raising fact.</strong></span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;">Anyways, to address to your specific query, I have a small list of stocks for readers who wish to truly invest during this Diwali based on fundamentals and valuations in specific stocks. However, they should remember that if markets meltdown to some extent or shifts into an intermediate downtrend, these stocks could be further dragged down by some more bit in sync with the downward market momentum. The readers need to be aware that the valuations are sound to buy the below mentioned stocks even at this point, but it comes with the risk that they're indulging in it at peak market levels. The list is as follows:</span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"><strong>1) <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_3" class="blsp-spelling-error">Bharti</span> <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_4" class="blsp-spelling-error">Airtel</span></strong></span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"><strong>2) <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_5" class="blsp-spelling-error">Alok</span> Industries</strong></span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"><strong>3) <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_6" class="blsp-spelling-error">Kalindee</span> Rail</strong></span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"><strong>4) Time <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_7" class="blsp-spelling-error">Technoplast</span></strong></span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"><strong>5) Everest <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_8" class="blsp-spelling-error">Kanto</span></strong></span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"><strong>6) <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_9" class="blsp-spelling-error">Praj</span> Industries</strong></span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"><strong>7) <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_10" class="blsp-spelling-error">ONGC</span></strong></span></span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="color:#000000;"><strong>Disclaimer:</strong> All data, content and/or reports posted by Viral <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_11" class="blsp-spelling-error">Rajnikant</span> <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_12" class="blsp-spelling-error">Dholakia</span> on this site are only for information and educational purpose of visitor/readers of this blog. It does not constitute to be a recommendation/offer/advice to buy or sell assets/securities in any form. Individuals/organizations are requested to take an informed call by consulting their Financial Advisor before acting on any matter/data published on this blog. This blog does not warrant of any kind of accuracy, adequacy and completeness of data, ideas or thoughts published in it. This site and Viral <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_13" class="blsp-spelling-error">Rajnikant</span> <span id="SPELLING_ERROR_14" class="blsp-spelling-error">Dholakia</span> assumes no responsibility or liability or loss or damage of any kind/nature for your trading and investment decisions and its consequent results.</span> </span></span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"></span>Viral Rajnikant Dholakiahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14517054276981728056noreply@blogger.com12tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7498038812786460685.post-67056221776238468952009-10-09T17:58:00.017+05:302009-10-10T17:17:28.655+05:30United Phosphorus: Trend Under Cloud Cover !!<span style="font-family:verdana;color:#3333ff;">Just few days back on October 05, 2009 I had posted my stock view on United Phosphorus. The stock charts then had showed an emergence of a bullish reversal indicator in a Morning <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">Doji</span> Star pattern. The expectation was that the near term bearish trend prevailing from mid September has come to a halt & a likely trend reversal would set in after witnessing a unique Morning <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">Doji</span> Star Pattern on the charts. The stock did show signs of strength post such signals and witnessed higher levels of about Rs.176-178 in the follow-up session.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:85%;">Charts Courtesy: </span><a href="http://www.icharts.in/"><span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:85%;">www.icharts.in</span></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBxMV9POJzXaPqnX2j30Bt7ewel77SO7kj5VFhPul2ObuQHNuPr9vUy8vGIX-lFjBG3BGu2eBYG8F7ZzEoV_Q3GvApSW5li7CgAPYzB2XLU60_OkQT3HxmFBTcsEOfJHkyav879ObYTEEn/s1600-h/untitled.bmp"><span style="font-family:verdana;"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5390577722042366482" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 241px" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBxMV9POJzXaPqnX2j30Bt7ewel77SO7kj5VFhPul2ObuQHNuPr9vUy8vGIX-lFjBG3BGu2eBYG8F7ZzEoV_Q3GvApSW5li7CgAPYzB2XLU60_OkQT3HxmFBTcsEOfJHkyav879ObYTEEn/s400/untitled.bmp" border="0" /></span></a><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;"><br /></span><span style="font-family:verdana;color:#3333ff;">However, on October 7 and 8 we witnessed yet another reversal pattern in a Dark-Cloud Cover format, this one being the bearish signalling pattern. Today (October 9), the follow-up session of spotting this bearish trend reversal patter in dark-cloud cover, a long red candle stick <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">occurred</span> which pierced the low of the dark-cloud cover pattern, confirming that there is some sort of reversal in the stock's trend.</span><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;"><br /></span><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:130%;color:#006600;"><strong>Dark-Cloud Cover</strong></span><br /><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;color:#006600;">A Dark-cloud Cover is a Bearish reversal pattern witnessed after an uptrend. First day of this pattern is characterized by a long white candle in the direction of the uptrend. The second day typically opens gap-up above the close of the first day only to end (close) lower, piercing right below the middle of the first day's real body.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;color:#006600;">The greater the degree of penetration of the closing on the second day into the real body of first day, the more effective could be the bearish signal as may be given by the pattern. A better confirmation of this bearish pattern can be received on the next follow-up session which leads to the stock price to close below the standing position of the two decisive days of the dark-cloud cover pattern as shown in the above chart. It reaffirms the fact that no uptrend has ceased to exist. The highs established during the two days of emergence of dark-cloud cover pattern acts as a Resistance zone over a future period.</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;"><strong>United Phosphorus (Short-term Trend)</strong></span><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;color:#ff0000;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;color:#ff0000;">The stock has developed a crucial <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">resistance</span> around Rs.176-178 with a top with dark-cloud cover pattern on October 7 and 8. A support exists at Rs.154-156 levels near the bottom of recently witnessed Morning <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">Doji</span> Star pattern. A break below this support zone could open the flood gates for bears to further dragging down the stock at lower levels. Traders should observe thorough due-diligence to trade within the Rs.155-180 zone, as there is lack of clear trend with crucial support & resistance placed at the extremes of this range.</span><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;color:#ff0000;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;"><strong>United Phosphorus (Medium-term Trend)</strong></span><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;color:#ff0000;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;color:#ff0000;">Indeed, if this Dark-cloud cover pattern were to effectively materialize over a period of time, there could be more down side to the stock in the coming times. If the stock breaks crucial Rs.154-156 support, a down side risk towards Rs.135-145 can not be ruled out over a Medium-term horizon in next few months. However, the trend may again turn positive if the stock manages to close above Rs.180 resistance zone.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#3333ff;"><strong>Tweezers Top Resistance</strong></span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"> In a classical Dark-cloud cover pattern, usually the second day opens above the highs of the first day. But in this specific instance of United Phosphorus there is a slight variation in the pattern where the second day simply opens above the first day's close (not highs), and could not surpass the highs established on first day but simply managed to match it. Some Analysts may prefer to call this pattern as <em><strong>'Tweezers Top & Dark-cloud Cover'</strong></em> as the highs of both the sessions are almost matching. Unless the highs of this tweezer tops are not crossed-over, the momentum in the counter may remain negative until some new trend reversal pattern emerges. The highs of the tweezer top could act as significant Resistance in future.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"><strong>Disclaimer:</strong> All data, content and/or reports posted by Viral <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">Rajnikant</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">Dholakia</span> on this site are only for information and educational purpose of visitor/readers of this blog. It does not constitute to be a recommendation/offer/advice to buy or sell assets/securities in any form. Individuals/organizations are requested to take an informed call by consulting their Financial Advisor before acting on any matter/data published on this blog. This blog does not warrant of any kind of accuracy, adequacy and completeness of data, ideas or thoughts published in it. This site and Viral <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">Rajnikant</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8">Dholakia</span> assumes no responsibility or liability or loss or damage of any kind/nature for your trading and investment decisions and its consequent results. </span>Viral Rajnikant Dholakiahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14517054276981728056noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7498038812786460685.post-46722737267274541232009-10-08T15:58:00.012+05:302009-10-08T18:07:55.893+05:30Zandu Pharma: Fluttering with the Flag?<span style="font-family:verdana;color:#3333ff;">The stock price of <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">Zandu</span> Pharmaceutical Works Ltd. has spurted at 10% up circuit to close at Rs.10925 on the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">bourses</span> today. The stock made a low of Rs.9921 during the day. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">Zandu</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">Pharma</span> is a Small-cap company with market capital of approximately Rs.800 to Rs.900 <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">crore</span> which is usually traded at low volumes. On the Daily charts of <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">Zandu</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">Pharma</span>, a 'likely' Flag pattern is visible which is a short-term Continuation indicator marked by a small consolidation & declining volumes in between the over-all journey.</span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span><br /><span style="color:#000000;"><strong>(Please refer to the Risk factors associated while trading in this stock, at the end of this post)</strong></span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:85%;color:#000000;">Charts Courtesy: </span><a href="http://www.icharts.in/"><span style="font-size:85%;color:#000000;">www.icharts.in</span></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhw0b2XpOEZQn_pGzNdKmszwV7OEZixzdSgxLIQwtkvQsXAGJDlMvtPk72l54NNlvd-vAnDe79owRcuDtOU23g2VShOlleXVX8jZ4dGZXjAIjEKFikiV3HcykECeUl0dKMvA7idQ9wVMH-0/s1600-h/untitled.bmp"><span style="color:#3333ff;"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5390174340253358178" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 306px" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhw0b2XpOEZQn_pGzNdKmszwV7OEZixzdSgxLIQwtkvQsXAGJDlMvtPk72l54NNlvd-vAnDe79owRcuDtOU23g2VShOlleXVX8jZ4dGZXjAIjEKFikiV3HcykECeUl0dKMvA7idQ9wVMH-0/s400/untitled.bmp" border="0" /></span></a><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#006600;"><strong>Flag Pattern</strong></span><br /><span style="color:#006600;"></span><br /><a href="http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/flag.asp"><span style="color:#006600;"><strong><span style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">Investopedia</span>.com</span></strong></span></a><span style="color:#006600;"><strong><span style="font-family:verdana;"> defines 'Flag' as, <em>"A technical charting pattern that looks like a flag with a mast on either side. Flags result from price fluctuations within a narrow range and mark a consolidation before the previous move resumes."</em></span></strong></span><br /><span style="color:#006600;"></span><br /><span style="color:#006600;">1) A Flag pattern is a Continuation pattern characterized by an up trend followed by <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8">consolidation</span> with declining volumes. The pattern witnesses a breakout from the consolidation pattern leading to a spurt in prices in the same direction as prior established trend.</span><br /><span style="color:#006600;"></span><br /><span style="color:#006600;">2) Usually a Flag pattern, as a whole, is preceded by a series of dull and low volume sessions packed with in a tight range, though this is not a universal rule. Later a break in stagnant price action occurs leading to almost a vertical spurt in prices with strong up trending momentum. This zone of price spurt which is characterized by high volume is known as a 'Flag Pole'.</span><br /><span style="color:#006600;"></span><br /><span style="color:#006600;">3) After the storm of sharp up move, comes the consolidation period which is characterized by small downside pressure with in a tight narrow range as show in chart attached above. This <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_9">consolidation</span> phase is driven on the back of declining volumes. Next stage is breakout on the upside as continuation of the prior trend.</span><br /><span style="color:#006600;"></span><br /><span style="color:#006600;">4) The last stage is a breakout from the consolidation zone as continuation on the trend established prior to <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_10">consolidation</span>. Even this last stage can be as furious and fast as the breakout witnessed during the formation of the prior Flag pole marked before consolidation. The length and 'likely targets' for the 2<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_11">nd</span> Flag pole could be as big as the price movement witnessed during the 1st Flag pole.</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#3333ff;"><strong>Zandu with a Flag</strong></span><br /><span style="color:#006600;"></span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;">From the above mentioned evidences, I have posted this blog entry assuming that <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_12">Zandu</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_13">Pharma</span> stock is in the last stage of formation of 2<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_14">nd</span> Flag pole. The stock spurted up at 10% Up circuit as I am writing this, which can be construed as a breakout from the consolidation zone of Rs.12500 on the up side to Rs.10000 on the downside. With today's spurt in price action, the consolidation phase can be assumed as being completed before the prior established up trend resumes its up surge.</span><br /><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;">The usual way of calculating the price target for <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_15">up move</span> during the 2<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_16">nd</span> Flag pole could be equal to the length of the price action witnessed during the preceded flag pole at the start of the up trend. In <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_17">Zandu</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_18">Pharma</span>, the 1st Flag pole is of a height of Rs.6000, formed during an up move from Rs.7000 to Rs.13000. Assuming that the formation of the 2<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_19">nd</span> Flag pole has commenced from this date, we can presume that the <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_20">up move</span> has started from the day's low of Rs.9900, giving us a probable target of Rs.16000 approximately (6000 points added to Rs.9900). The target can deviate by one or two <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_21">thousand</span> rupees. However, this is just my view and thought on the stock and the pattern that is visibly developing on the chart and it should not be construed as sure shot achievable targets, nor is it a Buy/Sell Recommendation.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;"><strong>Risks Factors</strong></span><br /><br /><span style="color:#ff0000;">1) <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_22">Zandu</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_23">Pharma</span> is Small-cap stock.</span><br /><span style="color:#ff0000;">2) It is a Low Volume stock and often trades under Circuit filters which may not allow trader a much desirable entry/exit opportunity at the right time.</span><br /><span style="color:#ff0000;">3) The views about formation of the Flag pattern in this stock is simply my assumption based on my knowledge and signals I am receiving from the charts.</span> <span style="color:#ff0000;">There is no surety of any kind that the stock price will move in up ward direction only from here.</span><br /><br /><span style="color:#ff0000;"></span><br /><strong><span style="color:#000000;">Note: The above view on the stock is for Short-term horizon and not an investment/fundamental report. The above views are for educational purpose and should not be construed as a Buy/Sell Recommendation of any kind/nature whatsoever.</span></strong><br /><br /><span style="font-size:85%;color:#000000;"><strong>Disclaimer:</strong> All data, content and/or reports posted by Viral <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_24">Rajnikant</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_25">Dholakia</span> on this site are only for information and educational purpose of visitor/readers of this blog. It does not constitute to be a recommendation/offer/advice to buy or sell assets/securities in any form. Individuals/organizations are requested to take an informed call by consulting their Financial Advisor before acting on any matter/data published on this blog. This blog does not warrant of any kind of accuracy, adequacy and completeness of data, ideas or thoughts published in it. This site and Viral <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_26">Rajnikant</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_27">Dholakia</span> assumes no responsibility or liability or loss or damage of any kind/nature for your trading and investment decisions and its consequent results. </span>Viral Rajnikant Dholakiahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14517054276981728056noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7498038812786460685.post-59725509569929862712009-10-05T21:36:00.013+05:302009-10-07T11:32:44.927+05:30United Phosphorus: Is Short-Term Bottom in Place?<span style="font-family:verdana;"><span style="color:#006600;"><strong></strong></span></span><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;"><span style="color:#006600;"><strong>I would like to assure all the readers who have provided affirmative comments regarding the issue of trading ideas on the blog, that I am not going to stop posting stock specific views based on act of particular readers. But, there would definitely be a small change in the format of my postings which will be more in the form of 'Trading Views' rather than formal 'Trading Calls or Recommendations'.</strong></span><br /></span><br /><span style="color:#006600;">However, in short, trading views with supportive chart patterns will continue to flow as always. But, the decision of trading call based on specific signals like Entry, Exit, Stop loss , etc. will have to be determined by the traders themselves at their own peril. </span><br /><span style="color:#006600;"></span><br /><span style="color:#006600;">This may also mean that, I may post multiple trading views generated based on supportive chart signals, at the best of my knowledge. But, traders need to <strong>FILTER</strong> these views based on their due-diligence or understanding on the matter and act only when they feel that the specific stock view is good enough to take a call for themselves. </span><span style="color:#006600;">A number of trading views will keep flowing from my side, you have to choose (filter) as to which few would serve you best as per your profile.</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;"><strong>United Phosphorus</strong></span><br /><br /><span style="color:#ff0000;">Previous week saw an emergence of a bullish reversal indicator in United Phosphorus- 'The Morning <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">Doji</span> Star' Pattern. This pattern consists of determination of the trend based on performance of three candle sticks patterns which indicates that the prevailing down trend has ended and a gradual process of new up trend could be in the offing.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">Charts Courtesy: </span><a href="http://www.icharts.in/"><span style="font-size:85%;">www.icharts.in</span></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhxv6zcyfbsrt7TLSCfCeuMmyovUxVfhg9GUOGGBLIQKohgNuWAQqgtkcznspP7BI7TeG_qv_1drpeAvQmwMSbB1g7BgcyebayrvQaSRN1F9pLs8a2hQB1PKDVjtGHTiwbCteCD_MfuONw/s1600-h/untitled.bmp"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5389400956097492466" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 241px" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhxv6zcyfbsrt7TLSCfCeuMmyovUxVfhg9GUOGGBLIQKohgNuWAQqgtkcznspP7BI7TeG_qv_1drpeAvQmwMSbB1g7BgcyebayrvQaSRN1F9pLs8a2hQB1PKDVjtGHTiwbCteCD_MfuONw/s400/untitled.bmp" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#3333ff;"><strong>The Morning <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">Doji</span> Star</strong></span><br /><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;">This pattern characterizes the reversal pattern in the prevailing down trend in the counter. The 1st day of the morning star pattern signifies a long red candle indicating the last downside move preceded by several down trending days. The 2<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">nd</span> day is a <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">doji</span> which opens gap-down & closes somewhere near the very same open- indicating a tussle between bulls and the bears in search of a decisive trend. The 3rd day is the bullish confirmation day with a big white candle piercing above the mid-point of the real body of 1st day of the pattern.</span><br /><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;">In short, we have a stock in a down trend since quite some while and we get a star <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">doji</span> indicating that bears were in control of the downtrend but was duly followed by bulls taking some charge of the situations- meaning bears are losing capacity to drive down the stock further from here. The confirmation of this comes on the 3rd day of the pattern when bulls seems to be in full control of the situation and betting of the reversal in the stock fortunes. However, traders who want further confirmation of this reversal pattern can latch on to clues from the another 2-3 days of trading sentiment in the counter.</span><br /><br /><br /><p><span style="font-size:130%;color:#006600;"><strong>Supports & <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">Resistances</span></strong></span></p><span style="color:#006600;">Coming back to United Phosphorus and the bullish reversal pattern in this counter, we have witnessed a Morning <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">Doji</span> Star pattern (as marked by Blue Rectangle on above Chart) around September 24, 2009. With the positive stock performance in the following 4-5 sessions of witnessing this pattern, we can conclude that the stock could have indeed bottomed out around 154-156 zone in the near term horizon. </span><br /><br /><span style="color:#006600;">The stock has minor support around 163-164 zone followed by 154-156 at deeper levels. Presuming that this stock view on United Phosphorus has indeed sought a bullish reversal pattern with determination of Morning <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">Doji</span> Star pattern during the last week, we can come to conclusion that the stock has a strong support at 154-156 where the stock could have bottomed out in near term. </span><br /><span style="color:#006600;"></span><br /><span style="color:#006600;"><strong>The stock has a <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8">resistance</span> at 174-175 zone.</strong> <strong>So, a real bullish confirmation comes above 174-175 levels where traders can bet with conviction.</strong> However, the entry and exit strategy to be used for trading in this counter may vary from trader to trader depending upon their risk profile & to some extent market conditions as well. Traders are requested not to take trading calls on each and every stock view presented by me on this blog. Consider all the above views as guide posts with thoughts on the stock and its trend, rather than as a recommendation to Buy/Sell.</span><br /><br /><strong>Note: The term ‘Trend Reversal’ could have number of implications. One of them being- the prior trend would cease to exist, not necessarily being reversed instantly. Also, a trend reversal is a slow and a gradual process which develops over a period of time with change in sentiment.</strong><br /><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"><strong>Disclaimer:</strong> All data, content and/or reports posted by Viral <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_9">Rajnikant</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_10">Dholakia</span> on this site are only for information and educational purpose of visitor/readers of this blog. It does not constitute to be a recommendation/offer/advice to buy or sell assets/securities in any form. Individuals/organizations are requested to take an informed call by consulting their Financial Advisor before acting on any matter/data published on this blog. This blog does not warrant of any kind of accuracy, adequacy and completeness of data, ideas or thoughts published in it. This site and Viral <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_11">Rajnikant</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_12">Dholakia</span> assumes no responsibility or liability or loss or damage of any kind/nature for your trading and investment decisions and its consequent results.</span>Viral Rajnikant Dholakiahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14517054276981728056noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7498038812786460685.post-15116773966970626132009-10-03T11:35:00.022+05:302009-10-08T18:05:05.200+05:30Trading View: JP Hydro & Nifty<span style="color:#006600;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;color:#006600;">Thanks to an eye-opening Comment by a reader in my previous posting related to <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">IDFC</span>, that I realize that posting free calls on a blog is a thankless job. I wonder, as commented by that particular reader, as to whether Technical Analysis is just as good as you want the data to be interpreted. I kept wondering- aren't charts a reflection of the demand-supply scenario in the market? Well, I am not here to discuss about all this as of now. But, one must remember, trading is like a coin. It has two sides- Stop loss and Targets. It is impossible that all trading calls will click.</span><span style="font-family:verdana;color:#006600;"><br /></span><span style="color:#006600;"><br /><strong><span style="font-family:verdana;">But, I have come to a conclusion that I will not post calls on this blog. But I shall keep posting my views on the stock or index. I shall present chart view from my side & leave the decision of trading call on the readers themselves who track this blog. The crucial entry, exit, stop loss and trailing stop loss points will have to be determined by the readers themselves. I would be more involved in providing stock ideas and material which could be more of educational in nature & not recommendation to Buy or Sell whatsoever.</span></strong></span><span style="font-family:verdana;"><br /></span><br /><strong>Traders are free to trade whenever they feel fit and take their own due-diligent decision to trade depending upon their intellectual to judge the viability of my views.</strong><br /><strong><span style="font-size:78%;">.</span></strong><br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;"><strong>Trading View on <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">Jaiprakash</span> Hydro-Power</strong></span><br /><br />In the prevailing positive momentum for the markets, have markets given a miss to one of their trading favourite among the momentum stocks i.e., JP Hydro ??<br /><br /><br /><p></p><span style="color:#3333ff;"><strong>Pennant</strong> is a short-term continuation pattern which is characterized by (triangular) consolidation & resumption of the move in the previous </span><span style="color:#3333ff;">trending direction. This pattern also features a sharp decline in volume during the consolidation phase. There are signs that this particular pattern could be emerging on the counter of JP Hydro.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">Charts Courtesy: </span><a href="http://www.icharts.in/"><span style="font-size:85%;">www.icharts.in</span></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0qLBelfmlBpLnxo1gPdqdMRxe8VUH26o7aKIRkgawV9Kj5pjwsU3r2Ckt8VdCFKG4JV1m59aJAQMfwrjrU4SUXIYvQggwb2xkOiU92KkKP1AveJxgE-Dlle5w4muSoe-S25pFAIsgWouV/s1600-h/j.bmp"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5388272671205414002" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 306px" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0qLBelfmlBpLnxo1gPdqdMRxe8VUH26o7aKIRkgawV9Kj5pjwsU3r2Ckt8VdCFKG4JV1m59aJAQMfwrjrU4SUXIYvQggwb2xkOiU92KkKP1AveJxgE-Dlle5w4muSoe-S25pFAIsgWouV/s400/j.bmp" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><br /><strong><a href="http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pennant.asp"><span style="color:#006600;"><span style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">Investopedia</span>.com</span></span></a></strong><span style="color:#006600;"><span style="font-family:verdana;"> defines Pennant as, "<em>A continuation pattern in technical analysis formed when there is a large movement in a stock, the flagpole, followed by a consolidation period with converging <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">trend lines</span>, the pennant, followed by a breakout movement in the same direction as the initial large movement, the second half of the flagpole."</em></span></span><br /><br /><br />Without going much into detail regarding the working of the Pennant pattern, as can be seen on the above chart of JP Hydro- the stock has witnessed an <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">up move</span> during the month of July from Rs.65 to Rs.85. However, since then the stock has gone into a long consolidation for the following 2-3 months hinting towards formation of a Pennant pattern.<br /><strong></strong><br /><strong>The <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">consolidation</span> zone typically reflects features of range bound movement with in the converging trend lines backed by declining volumes. The breakout from this long consolidating pattern could herald a rally <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">up to</span> Rs.100-110 in short duration of time. Note: Traders should be cautious if the stock breaks substantially downward below Rs.78 mark.</strong><br /><br />Traders can use various trading techniques which best suits their risk appetite or judgement profile. One option is to trade once the stock breaks past the upper trend line of the triangle for further confirmation of the emergence of the Pennant pattern in the counter. Second option could be to build long positions around current price with Stop loss at the lower trend line defining downside support.<br /><span style="font-size:78%;">.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:180%;"><span style="color:#ff0000;"><strong>Nifty</strong></span> <span style="color:#ff0000;"><strong>View</strong></span><br /></span><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1PD0lpiYQdNGps7_fQsqO-TBilzufJuWDYLYOUg9EqLYnAvBIkSHYL_qk99CSF8Y_XCSQqJ_1FwNJZxk_4VomGPq6JIunNOjRRFa6DoQt2aMUK1aLHnDK5B0_CITthejFHfr6ERc2HA6Q/s1600-h/untitled.bmp"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5388273209914396466" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 241px" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1PD0lpiYQdNGps7_fQsqO-TBilzufJuWDYLYOUg9EqLYnAvBIkSHYL_qk99CSF8Y_XCSQqJ_1FwNJZxk_4VomGPq6JIunNOjRRFa6DoQt2aMUK1aLHnDK5B0_CITthejFHfr6ERc2HA6Q/s400/untitled.bmp" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;"><span style="color:#3333ff;"><strong>In Nifty, as we can see from the above chart that the market is steadily moving up but in a narrow range. I have highlighted two <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8">trend lines</span> (blue lines) which is acting as support and <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_9">resistance</span> for the market on either sides. My view is that if markets were to break past the upper trend line, than we could witness a steeper rally <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_10">up to</span> Nifty 5250-5450 levels in times to come over shorter duration.</strong></span><br /></span><span style="color:#3333ff;"><strong></strong><br /></span><span style="font-family:verdana;"><span style="color:#3333ff;">However, currently Nifty is resting very near to the upper trend line of the range which could be a reason to be cautious until we get a thorough breakout from the range. There is a downside support around Nifty 4930-4950 zone. So, vaguely, we can consider nifty with in narrow range of 4930-5125. A bigger market move needs a break past this range with a weekly closing.</span><br /></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"><strong>Disclaimer:</strong> All data, content and/or reports posted by Viral <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_11">Rajnikant</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_12">Dholakia</span> on this site are only for information and educational purpose of visitor/readers of this blog. It does not constitute to be a recommendation/offer/advice to buy or sell assets/securities in any form. Individuals/organizations are requested to take an informed call by consulting their Financial Advisor before acting on any matter/data published on this blog. This blog does not warrant of any kind of accuracy, adequacy and completeness of data, ideas or thoughts published in it. This site and Viral <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_13">Rajnikant</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_14">Dholakia</span> assumes no responsibility or liability or loss or damage of any kind/nature for your trading and investment decisions and its consequent results.</span>Viral Rajnikant Dholakiahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14517054276981728056noreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7498038812786460685.post-41917264232224390962009-09-19T11:39:00.045+05:302009-09-19T17:31:22.487+05:30Trading Review: Reiterate Buy on IDFC at Close Above Rs.147/- Mark<span style="font-size:78%;"><span style="color:#000000;"></span><br /></span><span style="color:#ff0000;"><span style="font-family:verdana;"><strong>Short-term Trading Call:</strong> A Buy Call on <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">IDFC</span> is Reiterated if it manages to Close above Rs.147/- mark. A bullish Mat Hold indicator & an Ascending Triangle Pattern emerging on the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">IDFC</span> Daily charts point towards a Bullish breakout once the stock settles above Rs.147 on Closing basis.</span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">Charts Courtesy: </span><a href="http://www.icharts.in/"><span style="font-size:85%;">www.icharts.in</span></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJfOWBDJfOr2Rqo1iNj2xqVWhhtA6VTEntyFKs2sYv-sK1_YP-WvMLiyhzjw-Fhpfz7yy0QqGwvbTS4rJypZb6xywrUbB4GMmd2xYnglKMZO8DBqBncWgZwi9kYh2EgJzFf9YUNLDPkX27/s1600-h/untitled.bmp"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5383057204967380258" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 241px" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJfOWBDJfOr2Rqo1iNj2xqVWhhtA6VTEntyFKs2sYv-sK1_YP-WvMLiyhzjw-Fhpfz7yy0QqGwvbTS4rJypZb6xywrUbB4GMmd2xYnglKMZO8DBqBncWgZwi9kYh2EgJzFf9YUNLDPkX27/s400/untitled.bmp" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;color:#ff0000;"><strong>Reference: <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">IDFC</span> Buy Call on this blog on September 14, 2009</strong></span><br /><span style="color:#ff0000;"></span><br /><span style="color:#ff0000;">The stock has Consolidated for about 5 days since a Trading Buy call was initiated on this blog on Sept 14. However, during this consolidation phase of last 5 days, a unique pattern of bullish Mat Hold indicator seems to have emerged on the Daily charts of <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">IDFC</span>.</span><br /></span><span style="font-size:78%;"></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#3333ff;"><strong>Mat Hold Indicator:</strong><span style="font-size:78%;"> (Refer Blue Rectangle in Above Chart)</span></span><br /><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span><br /><a href="http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/mat-hold-pattern.asp?&viewed=1"><span style="color:#3333ff;"><strong><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">Investopedia</span>.com</strong></span></a><span style="color:#3333ff;"><strong> defines Mat Hold Pattern as,</strong> <em>"A pattern found in the technical analysis of stocks that ultimately indicates the stock will continue its previous directional trend (bullish or bearish). The pattern is initially indicated by a significant trading day in one direction or another, followed by three small opposite trending days. The fifth day then continues the first day's trend, pushing higher or lower, in the same direction as the first day's movement."</em></span><br /><span style="font-size:78%;"><br /></span><span style="color:#ff0000;"></span><br /><span style="font-family:arial;color:#006600;"><strong>The Mat Hold Pattern of Candle stick charts is characterized by 5 day pattern with Signs of Consoldiation & then a Reversal, which can be described as below:</strong></span><br /><strong><span style="font-size:78%;"></span></strong><br /><span style="color:#006600;"></span><br /><span style="color:#006600;"><span style="font-family:verdana;"><strong>Day 1:</strong> The First day is marked by a long white candle (Up day) where the Closing of the day is way above the opening of the day, in effect, creating a long Real Body (with or without shadows).</span></span><br /><br /><span style="color:#006600;"><span style="font-family:verdana;"><strong>Day 2:</strong> The Second day is characterized by a gap-up opening. However, the second day closes below the Opening price, in effect, creating a Red candle (as shown in above charts) with relatively small Real body as compared to that of the First day.</span></span><br /><br /><span style="color:#006600;"><span style="font-family:verdana;"><strong>Day 3 and 4:</strong> Similarly, the 3rd and the 4<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">th</span> days are characterized by closes that are slightly below their respective opening for the day, in effect, creating another 2 Red candles with small Real body as compared to that of the First day. However, a common typical feature that reflects on Day 3 and 4 signifies a brief period of down trend but within the range of the stock price movement which is recorded on Day1.</span></span><br /><br /><span style="color:#006600;"><span style="font-family:verdana;"><strong>Day 5:</strong> The Fifth day is characterized by a bullish formation of long white candle either engulfing the coverage of price movement of last 3 days or a Close above the closing levels recorded on the 1st Day of long white candle.</span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;color:#006600;"><strong>Apart from bullish Mat hold Pattern, an Ascending Triangle Pattern is also visible as pointed out by two trend lines on the chart attached above. The <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">Resistance</span> line of the ascending triangle is placed around Rs.147 mark.</strong></span><br /><br /><span style="color:#ff0000;"></span><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;"><strong>CONCLUSION</strong></span><br /><span style="color:#ff0000;"></span><br /><span style="color:#ff0000;">With Reference to the above mentioned chart patterns for <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">IDFC</span> viz., Mat hold indicator & Ascending triangle pattern, it is advisable to track both chart indicators in sync with each other. Meaning to say, that the ascending triangle pattern has a <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8">resistance</span> of Rs.147 & a bullish confirmation of the Mat hold pattern can be gauged with one more positive white candle stick which closes above Rs.147 mark. <strong>Tracking above evidences of bullish formation, a Buy call is Reiterated once the stock closes above Rs.147 <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_9">resistance</span> level.</strong></span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#3333ff;"><strong>Option for Traders</strong></span><br /><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"><strong>Traders who Already Bought <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_10">IDFC</span> based on Sept 14 Buy Call</strong></span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;">Traders who have already invested money @Rs.142-145 zone based on the Buy call dated Sept 14, can add-on to to their investments as & when a bullish confirmation comes above Rs.147 mark. Traders with Low risk appetite can remain invested in the stock if they do not wish to add-on. The Stop loss for the trade remains at Rs.136/- on Closing basis.</span><br /><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"><strong>Traders who have still not Bought <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_11">IDFC</span> based on Sept 14 Buy Call</strong></span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;">Traders who did not buy the stock based on Sept 14 call, can jump-in to this counter, only on the cross-over & close above Rs.147 where we get a bullish confirmation. However, they can avoid/skip this Trading Call until the stock crosses crucial <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_12">resistance</span> zone of Rs.147.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:85%;color:#000000;"><strong>Note:</strong> The above views on <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_13">IDFC</span> are simply based on visibility of 'Likely' patterns on charts to the best of my knowledge. The grounds on which the patterns are predicted may go wrong or haywire depending upon the market movement or actual demand-supply scenario prevailing in the counter. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_14">Traders</span> should act on the above calls solely based on their own <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_15">Responsibility</span> & confirmation of the above views from their trust-worthy sources. The above views are only for educational & guidance purposes.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"></span><span style="color:#cc33cc;"><span style="font-size:130%;"><strong>Status Of Past Trading Calls:</strong></span><br /><br />1) <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_16">Ranbaxy</span> Call Full Target Achieved<br />2) Orchid Chemicals Both Targets <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_17">Achieved</span><br />3) <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_18">Aban</span> Offshore Stop Loss <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_19">Triggered</span><br /><br />(<strong>High</strong><strong> Risk Traders</strong> can again Buy <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_20">Aban</span> Offshore below Rs.1600 with <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_21">SL</span> of Rs.1496, a Bullish Engulfing pattern followed by positive confirmation during next two sessions, affirms the positive uptrend in the counter)</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">Disclaimer: All data, content and/or reports posted by Viral <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_22">Rajnikant</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_23">Dholakia</span> on this site are only for information and educational purpose of visitor/readers of this blog. It does not constitute to be a recommendation/offer/advice to buy or sell assets/securities in any form. Individuals/organizations are requested to take an informed call by consulting their Financial Advisor before acting on any matter/data published on this blog. This blog does not warrant of any kind of accuracy, adequacy and completeness of data, ideas or thoughts published in it. This site and Viral <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_24">Rajnikant</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_25">Dholakia</span> assumes no responsibility or liability or loss or damage of any kind/nature for your trading and investment decisions and its consequent results.</span>Viral Rajnikant Dholakiahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14517054276981728056noreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7498038812786460685.post-73916894147487756252009-09-14T18:20:00.011+05:302009-09-18T16:22:59.838+05:30Trading Idea: Buy IDFC with SL of 136/-<span style="font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;"><strong></strong></span><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#006600;"><strong>Short Term Trading Call</strong></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">Charts Courtesy: </span><a href="http://www.icharts.in/"><span style="font-size:85%;">www.icharts.in</span></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtrmaXCfzck0LfDYlZioy7ttVweS4CgJ8OiIJj_piY0AARIOknS5O0099BEkYjPkRSUvQZW4vxt8nIWCal04p7qtLSxoSb4OP7jwWaRp72huqU-rbUvJgrxmxyP0T0g0aw3oLI8WXmhHWn/s1600-h/untitled.bmp"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5381316823824056466" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 241px" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtrmaXCfzck0LfDYlZioy7ttVweS4CgJ8OiIJj_piY0AARIOknS5O0099BEkYjPkRSUvQZW4vxt8nIWCal04p7qtLSxoSb4OP7jwWaRp72huqU-rbUvJgrxmxyP0T0g0aw3oLI8WXmhHWn/s400/untitled.bmp" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#3333ff;"><span style="color:#ff0000;"><strong>Buy: <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">IDFC</span></strong> <span style="font-size:85%;">(Closing Price- Rs.144)</span></span><span style="font-size:85%;"><br /></span>Accumulation Zone: Rs.142-145<br />Stop Loss (<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">SL</span>): Rs.136/-<br />Targets: T1 155, T2 170</span><br /><br /><span style="color:#006600;"><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Stock View:</span></strong> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">IDFC</span> has been consolidating in a Narrow range of Rs.128 to Rs.135 zone from August 15 to Sept 04 for a period of about 20 days. The stock jumped out of the range at the onset of 2<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">nd</span> week of September only to consolidate lower in the follow up trading sessions until yesterday. However, today the stock seems to have sought an important support around Rs.136 and the stock bounced back from there giving initial signs of stability. <strong>The stock also has an important Support at Rs.136 marked by its 50 EMA Trend line.</strong><br /><br />However, traders should keep in mind that the stock has a minor resistance at Rs.150 mark which is a resistance zone for the stock for past 4 months. On cross over & sustenance above Rs.150 mark backed by strong volumes, this stock seems set for a ride up to Rs.170-180 over next few months.</span><br /><br /><br /><p></p><p><span style="font-size:85%;"><strong>Disclaimer:</strong> All data, content and/or reports posted by Viral <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">Rajnikant</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">Dholakia</span> on this site are only for information and educational purpose of visitor/readers of this blog. It does not constitute to be a recommendation/offer/advice to buy or sell assets/securities in any form. Individuals/organizations are requested to take an informed call by consulting their Financial Advisor before acting on any matter/data published on this blog. This blog does not warrant of any kind of accuracy, adequacy and completeness of data, ideas or thoughts published in it. This site and Viral <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">Rajnikant</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">Dholakia</span> assumes no responsibility or liability or loss or damage of any kind/nature for your trading and investment decisions and its consequent results. </span></p><p></p>Viral Rajnikant Dholakiahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14517054276981728056noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7498038812786460685.post-78858029850609260402009-09-12T11:14:00.023+05:302009-09-13T15:55:32.540+05:30Swinging with RSI Momentum Indicator<span style="font-family:verdana;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="color:#3333ff;"><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;">Often Technical indicators are used as a guide or to predict the future course of action of equity markets, especially short-term market movement. Usually the use of technical indicators over a short term period involves studying demand-supply indicators irrespective of fundamental aspects of the market or a stock. Though it is not advisable to predict markets based on any particular technical indicators but a combination of indicators to arrive at any type of concrete decision of the market's next price direction.</span> </span><br /><span style="font-size:78%;color:#000000;">.</span></span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;color:#3333ff;">Short Term Momentum with RSI</span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span></strong><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;">However, in this post we shall try to focus on predicting the very near-term (next 5-15 sessions)market movement for the markets in general. For this purpose, we will use one of the most widely tracked technical momentum indicator for determining the relative <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">strength</span> of the market - the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI).</span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span><br /><span style="color:#006600;"><strong>RSI as defined by </strong></span></span><a href="http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/rsi.asp"><span style="color:#006600;"><strong><span style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">Investopedia</span>.com</span></strong></span></a><span style="font-family:verdana;"><span style="color:#006600;"><strong> is</strong>, <em>"A technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to determine overbought and oversold conditions of an asset."</em></span> </span><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;"><br /><span style="color:#006600;">It further elaborates on the working of RSI as, <em>"The RSI ranges from 0 to 100. An asset is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, meaning that it may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback. Likewise, if the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the asset may be getting oversold and therefore likely to become undervalued. "</em></span></span><br /><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="color:#000000;">Charts Courtesy: </span><a href="http://www.icharts.in/"><span style="color:#000000;">www.icharts.in</span></a></span><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEig_fwJ0iyaDEwscc9S58yWMO7Js41dhanJJUEtEqVHk3WmWsaMsad-eL6zYQGz-whiXlXe12wUI808-XILhWLM3BhH2XlblhS9URaIdDZ3LdRC0xU9KQNip8SRtrbchSPsnpFKMNCFHJ7d/s1600-h/untitled1.bmp"><span style="font-size:85%;color:#000000;"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5380470243434461810" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 330px" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEig_fwJ0iyaDEwscc9S58yWMO7Js41dhanJJUEtEqVHk3WmWsaMsad-eL6zYQGz-whiXlXe12wUI808-XILhWLM3BhH2XlblhS9URaIdDZ3LdRC0xU9KQNip8SRtrbchSPsnpFKMNCFHJ7d/s400/untitled1.bmp" border="0" /></span></a><span style="color:#000000;"><br /></span><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span><br /><br /><span style="color:#006600;"><strong>From the above attached Daily Nifty Charts with range of last 3 months, I have used RSI 5 to determine over-bought & over-sold position of markets for next 5-15 sessions.</strong> </span><br /><span style="color:#006600;"></span><br /><span style="color:#006600;"><strong>1)</strong> <strong>RSI below 30 around July:</strong> As can be seen from the charts, the benchmark index Nifty got over sold during the 10 days prior to and post July 2009, leading to short-term revival in the index <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">immediately</span> for next few sessions.</span><br /><span style="color:#006600;"></span><br /><span style="color:#006600;"><strong>2)</strong> <strong>RSI above 70 in July End:</strong> During the last 2 weeks of the July 2009, Nifty went into over-bought <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">territory</span>. However, Nifty did not witness any sharp correction but went for small-time consolidation at lower levels for 2 times only to bounce back in the over-bought <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">territory</span>.</span><br /><span style="color:#006600;"></span><br /><span style="color:#006600;"><strong>3)</strong> <strong>RSI support at 30 in August:</strong> However, the correction of over-bought phenomenon in the latter half of July was inevitable which was witnessed in first half of August 2009. Nifty took strong support at 4400 levels in the first half of August.</span><br /><span style="color:#006600;"></span><br /><span style="color:#006600;"><strong>4)</strong> <strong>RSI above 70 in Sept:</strong> Again markets have bounced back in the over-bought <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">territory</span> in the September first half.</span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span><br /><strong><span style="font-family:verdana;color:#000000;">Based on the above evidences from history of short-term price movements, we can conclude that sooner or later Nifty has to consolidate or correct in order to ensure in line movement with a 'likely' <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">retract</span> in RSI at lower levels in future.</span></strong><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;"><strong>Future Possibilities:</strong></span><br /><span style="color:#ff0000;"></span><br /><span style="color:#ff0000;"><strong>(A) Stretched-Out Pattern:</strong> RSI stays above 70 for some more time and Nifty remains over-bought for few more sessions. This possibility could see Nifty testing higher grounds like 4900-4950. On RSI indicator, this would reflect as 'stretching zone' for markets above RSI 70 mark. But, after a certain point, Nifty has to retract to lower range of 4780-4840 levels for consolidation or may be even deeper for correction <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">up to</span> 4680-4740.</span><br /><span style="color:#ff0000;"></span><br /><span style="color:#ff0000;"><strong>(B) <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8">Zig</span>-<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_9">Zag</span> Pattern:</strong> The other possibility could be Nifty <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_10">immediately</span> takes a small 'U' Turn for consolidation below RSI 70 for a week or so. The support area could be 4680-4740 mark for Nifty at such times. But, later, Nifty could again bounce back above RSI 70 mark to head towards higher levels (like the RSI pattern witnessed in last half of July 2009).</span><br /><span style="color:#ff0000;"></span><br /><span style="color:#ff0000;"><strong>(C) Pronounced Correction:</strong> Third possibility for Nifty could be that the RSI opts to retract back to 50 mark where it may find Support. This move back for the RSI to 50 could drag Nifty substantially lower at around 4570-4640 range over a period of 10-20 days. Nifty 4570 is a strong support zone for Nifty.</span><br /><span style="color:#ff0000;"></span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"><strong>Caution:</strong> RSI is 'not' the only technical indicator that determines the movement in any asset class. It is just one of the few indicators which can be more fruitfully utilised in integration with other technical momentum indicators. So, do not build your wholesome judgement or decision based exclusively on above thoughts related with market momentum based on RSI swings.</span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="color:#000000;"><strong>Disclaimer:</strong> All data, content and/or reports posted by Viral <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_11">Rajnikant</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_12">Dholakia</span> on this site are only for information and educational purpose of visitor/readers of this blog. It does not constitute to be a recommendation/offer/advice to buy or sell assets/securities in any form. Individuals/organizations are requested to take an informed call by consulting their Financial Advisor before acting on any matter/data published on this blog. This blog does not warrant of any kind of accuracy, adequacy and completeness of data, ideas or thoughts published in it. This site and Viral <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_13">Rajnikant</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_14">Dholakia</span> assumes no responsibility or liability or loss or damage of any kind/nature for your trading and investment decisions and its consequent results.</span></span> </span><br /><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span>Viral Rajnikant Dholakiahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14517054276981728056noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7498038812786460685.post-65202017422152194762009-09-07T10:16:00.033+05:302009-09-07T16:17:02.195+05:30High Risk Buy: Aban Offshore & Ind.Bull.Real Estate<span style="font-size:85%;">Charts Courtesy: </span><a href="http://www.icharts.in/"><span style="font-size:85%;">www.icharts.in</span></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXzEIjTFNyWZXDUnc_NgBKnMFJeGci7V_3ebOr6tYYjKA3YUtNeCeBCsRtOkWYYl_lNdCJQWCkbB7cLmlnRgrQtEa8U1ggHme_hjAccie1KeN3qZIe8UUsQWwEW3a4ZAhxD_yrmBg0aWzC/s1600-h/untitled.bmp"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5378583892881488514" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 241px" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXzEIjTFNyWZXDUnc_NgBKnMFJeGci7V_3ebOr6tYYjKA3YUtNeCeBCsRtOkWYYl_lNdCJQWCkbB7cLmlnRgrQtEa8U1ggHme_hjAccie1KeN3qZIe8UUsQWwEW3a4ZAhxD_yrmBg0aWzC/s400/untitled.bmp" border="0" /></a><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><div></div><div></div><div></div><div></div><div></div><div></div><div><span style="color:#006600;"><span style="font-size:130%;">Aban Offshore- Deployment of Jack up Rigs led by Increased Spending from Oil explorers on Higher Crude Prices</span></span></div><div><span style="font-size:78%;color:#000000;">.</span></div><div><strong><span style="font-size:130%;color:#006600;"></span></strong></div><div></div><div><strong><span style="font-size:130%;color:#006600;"></span></strong></div><div><strong><span style="font-size:130%;color:#006600;"></span></strong><strong><span style="font-size:130%;color:#006600;"></span></strong></div><div><span style="color:#006600;"><strong></strong></span></div><div><span style="color:#006600;">Oil exploration services provider Aban Offshore witnessed a huge 25-30% up move during last week on the back of positive announcement of deployment of three newly build jack up rigs in the Middle East for a contract worth Rs.2925 crore spanning 3 years duration. Apart from that the company has also entered into a deal for deployment of a rig in Latin America.</span> </div><div><span style="font-size:78%;">.</span></div><div><span style="font-size:78%;">.</span></div><div><span style="font-size:130%;color:#3333ff;"><strong>What Next after a Huge Surge Last Week??</strong></span></div><div><span style="font-size:78%;color:#000000;">.</span></div><div></div><div><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span></div><div><span style="color:#3333ff;">Coming to technical views on Aban Offshore, as has been pointed out in the chart, the stock has sought crucial support at lower levels around Rs.1520 mark after a huge surge in its stock price on announcement of deployment of its jack up rigs. The stock seemed extremely over-bought over the past few sessions and hence consolidating in Rs.1500-1650 range for the time being.</span></div><div><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;">Usually, after such a big surge it is unlikely that the stock gets dragged down atleast over a period of short-term horizon. In fact, the stock is expected to register incremental gains over a period of time once the consolidation phase is over. High Risk traders can initiate long position in the counter at current levels with a stop loss of Rs.1520 and target as mentioned below:</span><br /></div><div></div><div><br /><span style="color:#ff0000;"><span style="font-size:130%;">Aban Offshore: High Risk Short-term Trade<br /></span><span style="font-size:100%;">Accumulation Zone: Rs.1560-1590<br />Stop Loss (SL): Rs.1520/-<br />Targets: T1 1670, T2 1785</span></span> </div><div><br /><span style="color:#006600;"><strong>Note:</strong> This trading call has been tagged as <strong>'High Risk'</strong> Trading call not due to its sharply surged stock price in recent past, but due to the reason that the Support and Stop loss levels for this stock are placed quite near to the current market levels. Looking at the highly volatile fluctuation in the stock price of Aban Offshore after a huge surge, a fluctuation of 3-4% in the stock price on either side can't be ruled out during a volatile market session.</span> </div><div><span style="font-size:78%;color:#000000;">.</span></div><div><span style="font-size:78%;">.</span></div><div></div><div><span style="font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;">Indiabulls Real Estate: High Risk Short Term Trade</span></div><div><span style="color:#ff0000;">Accumulation Range: 255-260</span></div><div><span style="color:#ff0000;">Stop Loss (SL): Rs.247</span></div><div><span style="color:#ff0000;">Targets: T1 Rs.270, T2 Rs.285</span></div><div><span style="font-size:78%;color:#000000;">. </span></div><div><span style="font-size:78%;"><span style="color:#000000;">.</span> </span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"><strong>Disclaimer:</strong> All data, content and/or reports posted by Viral Rajnikant Dholakia on this site are only for information and educational purpose of visitor/readers of this blog. It does not constitute to be a recommendation/offer/advice to buy or sell assets/securities in any form. Individuals/organizations are requested to take an informed call by consulting their Financial Advisor before acting on any matter/data published on this blog. This blog does not warrant of any kind of accuracy, adequacy and completeness of data, ideas or thoughts published in it. This site and Viral Rajnikant Dholakia assumes no responsibility or liability or loss or damage of any kind/nature for your trading and investment decisions and its consequent results.</span> </div><div></div>Viral Rajnikant Dholakiahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14517054276981728056noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7498038812786460685.post-45992623258490744222009-09-04T18:06:00.010+05:302009-09-04T18:46:49.049+05:30Market Review: Nifty Analysis<strong><span style="font-size:130%;color:#cc33cc;"></span></strong><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;">Markets Nearing Trend Deciding Zone</span></strong><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;color:#cc33cc;"></span></strong><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">Chart Courtesy: </span><a href="http://www.icharts.in/"><span style="font-size:85%;">www.icharts.in</span></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglza84xkgFc34hCLQ1wXf7k23Zo6aU3gkyubzAEGqwLxofFctQ_40vI_Q7QSlKnpl4G5LcCjSOT5k9DQkOhgXiAc9bDyndMz1_2u8GxYRbzNMABOxt_ZNVYr5GbZFDpQ8V5jVIQEVZXL_a/s1600-h/untitled.bmp"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5377590204560062418" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 241px" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglza84xkgFc34hCLQ1wXf7k23Zo6aU3gkyubzAEGqwLxofFctQ_40vI_Q7QSlKnpl4G5LcCjSOT5k9DQkOhgXiAc9bDyndMz1_2u8GxYRbzNMABOxt_ZNVYr5GbZFDpQ8V5jVIQEVZXL_a/s400/untitled.bmp" border="0" /></a><br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p><strong><span style="font-size:130%;color:#006600;">Sturdy 4570 levels</span></strong></p><p>Nifty closes the week at 4680 on a positive note aided by revival in Chinese markets during the last session of this trading week. Currently, Nifty seems to be in a narrow trading range of 4570 to 4750 levels. <strong>It is significant to mention over here that the Nifty took support at 4570 level for 4 times during last 10 sessions</strong>, <strong>clearly confirming the view that these are the levels to be watched out for the downside support for short term traders.</strong></p><p><strong><span style="font-size:130%;color:#3333ff;">Crucial 4350-4400 Zone</span></strong></p><p>Over medium term basis, Nifty could be broadly trading in 4350 to 4750 range. The significance of Nifty 4350 to 4400 comes from the fact that markets took downside support for 8 times during mid August 2009. This forms as a crucial levels to be watched out for bulls, below which it would be advisable to play safe and exit or book partial profits. Below 4350 levels, bears are expected to take control of the situation for some time to come once the levels are taken out on the downside.</p><p><strong><span style="font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;"><span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">Resistant</span> 4750 Zone</span></strong></p><p>Nifty 4730-4750 continues to act as a strong <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">Resistance</span> for the markets to cross over. Above 4750, a quick burst to 4800-4850 can't be ruled out. If global markets stay sound & steady with upward bias for some more time, it wont be much before we see bulls crossing this crucial indicator at 4750 mark.</p><p><span style="color:#3333ff;"><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Summary</span><br />1) Below 4570:</strong> Short term Traders be Cautious on Long Positions<br /><strong>2) Below 4350:</strong> Book Partial Profits / Exit Partial Longs<br /><strong>3) Above 4750:</strong> Hold Trading / Investment Positions</span></p><p><strong><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span></strong></p><p><span style="font-size:85%;"><strong>Disclaimer:</strong> All data, content and/or reports posted by Viral <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">Rajnikant</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">Dholakia</span> on this site are only for information and educational purpose of visitor/readers of this blog. It does not constitute to be a recommendation/offer/advice to buy or sell assets/securities in any form. Individuals/organizations are requested to take an informed call by consulting their Financial Advisor before acting on any matter/data published on this blog. This blog does not warrant of any kind of accuracy, adequacy and completeness of data, ideas or thoughts published in it. This site and Viral <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">Rajnikant</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">Dholakia</span> assumes no responsibility or liability or loss or damage of any kind/nature for your trading and investment decisions and its consequent results.</span> </p>Viral Rajnikant Dholakiahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14517054276981728056noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7498038812786460685.post-47323033811402036502009-09-04T15:44:00.019+05:302009-09-04T22:01:19.216+05:30Trading Idea: Buy Ranbaxy Laboratories<strong><span style="font-size:130%;color:#cc33cc;"></span></strong><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;color:#cc33cc;">Short Term Trading Call</span></strong><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;color:#cc33cc;"></span></strong><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">Charts Courtesy: </span><a href="http://www.icharts.in/"><span style="font-size:85%;">http://www.icharts.in/</span></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimB38HC9_2ISYIsBSbiwNVka7dr_mE-OeFff4sYDlSauzKqCufGpJtK4u4bAue2wShhPdnoLKlBuCMa-nxxiu449Ezyuj1ZI8fbmxyV7HQel-RN5MmdLGtoOjX5icOpOQMI-e8zjDe4anQ/s1600-h/untitled.bmp"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5377553848636204818" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 320px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 193px" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimB38HC9_2ISYIsBSbiwNVka7dr_mE-OeFff4sYDlSauzKqCufGpJtK4u4bAue2wShhPdnoLKlBuCMa-nxxiu449Ezyuj1ZI8fbmxyV7HQel-RN5MmdLGtoOjX5icOpOQMI-e8zjDe4anQ/s320/untitled.bmp" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;"><strong></strong></span><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;"><strong></strong></span><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;"><strong></strong></span><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;"><strong></strong></span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;"><strong></strong></span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;"><strong>BUY:Ranbaxy Laboratories (Closing Price: 321)</strong></span><br /><span style="font-size:130%;"><span style="color:#3333ff;">Accumulation Zone: Rs.318-322</span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;">Stop Loss: Rs.312</span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;">Target: Rs.340</span></span><br /><strong><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span></strong><br /><strong><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span></strong><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#000000;"><strong>Trading Updates during the Week:</strong></span><br /><br /><span style="color:#006600;"><strong>1) Videocon Indsutries</strong><br />Aug 27: Buy Call initiated<br />Aug 28: 1st Target Achieved (30% Gains Booked)<br />SL trailed from 210 to 222<br />Sept 01: SL trailed from 222 to 232<br /><br /><strong>2) HDIL</strong><br />Aug 25: Buy Call initiated<br />Aug 29: 1st Target Achieved (40% Gains Booked)<br />SL Trailed from 280 to 290<br />Sept 01: SL trailed from 290 to 305<br />Sept 02: Trailing SL trigerred at 305 (Buying Price 295)<br />Trailing SL Strategy ensured No losses. Call Wrapped Up.<br /><br /><strong>3) Tata Communication</strong><br />Aug 25: Buy Call initiated<br />Aug 29: SL Trigerred at 500 & loss booked.<br /><br /><strong>4) Orchid Chemicals</strong><br />Aug 26: Buy Call initiated<br />Aug 28: 1st Target Achieved (60% Gains Booked)<br />Sept 01: SL trailed from 105 to 108<br />Sept 04: Trail SL from 108 to 117</span><br /><span style="color:#006600;">Stock Going Strong towards our T2</span><br /><span style="color:#006600;"><br /><strong>5) United Phosphorus</strong><br />Aug 28: Buy Call initiated<br />Sept 01: 1st Target Achieved (40% Gains Booked)<br />SL trailed from 158 to 162, Support at 162</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"><strong>Disclaimer:</strong> All data, content and/or reports posted by Viral Rajnikant Dholakia on this site are only for information and educational purpose of visitor/readers of this blog. It does not constitute to be a recommendation/offer/advice to buy or sell assets/securities in any form. Individuals/organizations are requested to take an informed call by consulting their Financial Advisor before acting on any matter/data published on this blog. This blog does not warrant of any kind of accuracy, adequacy and completeness of data, ideas or thoughts published in it. This site and Viral Rajnikant Dholakia assumes no responsibility or liability or loss or damage of any kind/nature for your trading and investment decisions and its consequent results.</span>Viral Rajnikant Dholakiahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14517054276981728056noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7498038812786460685.post-72848747688776636642009-08-29T15:48:00.044+05:302009-08-29T23:14:18.548+05:30Investment Review: Hold Videocon Industries<span style="color:#3333ff;"></span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"><span style="font-family:verdana;"><strong>Past Recommendation</strong>: I had recommended a Buy Call on Videocon Industries Ltd on May 15, 2009- </span></span><a href="http://stock-mkts.blogspot.com/2009/05/value-picks-mid-caps-for-long-term.html"><span style="font-family:verdana;color:#3333ff;">Click here to refer my old Blog post</span></a><span style="color:#3333ff;"><span style="font-family:verdana;">. The stock was recommended to buy in the range of Rs.95-125.</span></span> <span style="font-family:verdana;color:#3333ff;">Read</span><span style="font-family:verdana;color:#3333ff;"> Further Review on the Stock:</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family:Verdana;color:#3333ff;"></span><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;"><strong>Significance of Trend Line Support</strong></span><br /><span style="color:#ff0000;"><strong></strong><br /><span style="color:#000000;">Charts Courtesy: </span><a href="http://www.icharts.in/"><span style="color:#000000;">www.icharts.in</span></a><br /></span><span style="color:#ff0000;"></span><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitUXA2UqYAxwjMyd3cDxjb-EyTf18kuiQ72Z5nVpi3z2oPF1z2J2Ib_xNSxhqLh6gBfaA3u9feOuOwb6vsyFUzICJo3D_xxMYI98lw9RGVjNap3P_ZuP1RpEBFMgBAVsCUtmW7NUtOE-Mz/s1600-h/untitled.bmp"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5375331447677823074" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 241px" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitUXA2UqYAxwjMyd3cDxjb-EyTf18kuiQ72Z5nVpi3z2oPF1z2J2Ib_xNSxhqLh6gBfaA3u9feOuOwb6vsyFUzICJo3D_xxMYI98lw9RGVjNap3P_ZuP1RpEBFMgBAVsCUtmW7NUtOE-Mz/s400/untitled.bmp" border="0" /></a><br /><span style="color:#ff0000;"></span><br /><span style="color:#ff0000;"></span><br /><span style="color:#000000;"><strong>Alas !! A Breakout from Range Bound Movement:</strong></span><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;"></span></strong><br /><span style="color:#000000;"><strong>1)</strong> Broadly Range Bound: In Rs.140-210 zone since mid-May 2009.</span><br /><span style="color:#000000;"><strong>2)</strong> Narrowly Range Bound: In Rs.180-210 zone since mid-July 2009.</span><br /><span style="color:#000000;"><strong>3)</strong> The stock has sought support for 3 times at the six month trend line during the month of March, Mid-May and Mid-July 2009.</span><br /><strong>4)</strong> Current Market Price: Rs.240/-<br /><span style="color:#ff0000;"><span style="font-size:130%;"></span></span><br /><br /><span style="color:#ff0000;"><span style="font-size:130%;">1) Starting the Journey:</span> Whenever the stock has moved farther from the trend line by a substantial margin, sooner or later the stock has reverted back closer to the trend line to seek a support for any further upmove in future. The stock commenced its upmove during mid-March 2009 from its trough lows of Rs.75, the place from where the trend line's starting point can be tracked.</span><br /><br /><span style="color:#ff0000;"><span style="font-size:130%;">2) The Rising Baby:</span> Since mid-March the stock rallied from Rs.75 to Rs.130 in about a month's time- a whooping range expansion from lows. This steep rally saw a consolidation pattern in the range of Rs.110-125. This consolidation was nothing but the stock reverting back to seek support near to its trend line's existence. </span><span style="color:#ff0000;"><br /></span><span style="color:#ff0000;"></span><br /><span style="color:#ff0000;"><span style="font-size:130%;">3) The Galloping Horse:</span> Once seeking a support near to its trend line at Rs.110-125 zone during mid-May, the stock seemed ready for yet another bounce- this time even vigourous. This time the stock settled for nothing less than Rs.200 - another range expansion from Rs.125 to Rs.200. Not to mention over here that yet another round of consolidation was due and the stock reverted back to seek a trend line support at Rs.140/-.</span><br /><br /><span style="color:#ff0000;"></span><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxaIDMiCr_FKvR5ulTPbra3D63pDXo_n17har0r9qXlBS9JC7NAznhaiqeCu8yAqhNjloYoYlnVfYOUQa_6KfJDrDTaWRrReQnM0kipLiwjZQsExlKSEuycBQXTwZLEFyXv782RdaXLZ5z/s1600-h/untitled.bmp"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5375406371606820370" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 320px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 193px" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxaIDMiCr_FKvR5ulTPbra3D63pDXo_n17har0r9qXlBS9JC7NAznhaiqeCu8yAqhNjloYoYlnVfYOUQa_6KfJDrDTaWRrReQnM0kipLiwjZQsExlKSEuycBQXTwZLEFyXv782RdaXLZ5z/s320/untitled.bmp" border="0" /></a><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#006600;"><strong></strong></span><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#006600;"><strong></strong></span><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#006600;"><strong></strong></span><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#006600;"><strong></strong></span><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#006600;"><strong></strong></span><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#006600;"><strong></strong></span><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#006600;"><strong></strong></span><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#006600;"><strong></strong></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#006600;"><strong></strong></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#006600;"><strong></strong></span><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#006600;"><strong>Baby's Day Out:</strong></span><br /><br /><span style="color:#ff0000;"><span style="color:#006600;">If you must have closely observed, every range expansion is more vigourous than the last one. Once the stock reverted back to the trned line for support, the stock has moved to higher horizons with increased vigour. However, whatever be the extent of range expansion, the stock keeps coming back to trend line for support over a medium term horizon. Its like a child which goes out to play during the day, but has to come back at home during night hours to seek shelter at the end of the day.</span><br /></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#cc33cc;"><strong>What Next??</strong></span><br /><br /><span style="color:#cc33cc;">Since the stock has reverted back to trend line to seek support around Rs.140 zone during mid-July, the stock still seems to be reasonably near the trend line. However, closely analysing, the stock is neither near to the trend line nor too far away. I mean to say, the much sought after 'Range Expansion' may be still not complete on the stock's chart in whole- which could have been half done and still some more to come.</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:130%;color:#3333ff;">Conclusion: Hold Videocon with SL of Rs.190</span><br /><strong><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span></strong><br /><strong><span style="color:#3333ff;">My personal view is that we could see the stock reaching higher levels like Rs.260-280 zone during the ongoing momentum (even Rs.300 cant be ruled out), before we actually see the stock making effort to consolidate & seek its conventional support near to the trend line. This time the much needed trend line support zone could be perched in Rs.190-220 zone. But before that a likely range expansion could be in the row for this consumer durable stock.</span></strong><br /><br /><span style="color:#006600;"><span style="font-size:130%;">Points to Note:</span> As the stock moves up, its trend line support gradually shifts up in a slanting fashion. The trend line support mentioned in the charts around Rs.190 levels stands the test of time over medium term horizon. Later the levels can change depending upon the stock movement in future. </span><br /><br /><p><span style="color:#006600;">One another possibility that remains is- if markets correct sharply, the trend line could be breached on downside temporarily or even permanantly- which could be determined only with passage of time. The trend line supports could as well prove out to an illusion, if markets goes in a deep intermediate correction. Long term Investors can observe Rs.190 levels as Stop Loss for their investment in this stock based on the above mentioned explanation of trend line indicators as technical support for Videocon Industries.</span><br /></p><p><span style="color:#ff0000;"><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Special Notes:</span></strong> </span></p><p><span style="color:#ff0000;">1)Readers should not mix-up Trading & Investment Call on Videocon Industries, both of which are recommended by me on this blog. This particular post is directed at Long term Investors & not Traders.</span><span style="color:#ff0000;"> </span></p><span style="color:#ff0000;"></span><span style="color:#ff0000;"><p>2) The views contained in this post are from the view of Technical Charts of the stock. So, readers who believe in Investments from Fundamental perspective can ignore this post. The fundamentals of Videocon remains sound from long term perspective.</p><p></span></p><p><span style="font-size:85%;"><strong></strong></span></p><p><span style="font-size:85%;"><strong>Disclaimer:</strong> All data, content and/or reports posted by Viral Rajnikant Dholakia on this site are only for information and educational purpose of visitor/readers of this blog. It does not constitute to be a recommendation/offer/advice to buy or sell assets/securities in any form. Individuals/organizations are requested to take an informed call by consulting their Financial Advisor before acting on any matter/data published on this blog. This blog does not warrant of any kind of accuracy, adequacy and completeness of data, ideas or thoughts published in it. This site and Viral Rajnikant Dholakia assumes no responsibility or liability or loss or damage of any kind/nature for your trading and investment decisions and its consequent results.</span> </p><p> </p>Viral Rajnikant Dholakiahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14517054276981728056noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7498038812786460685.post-29836663579180583462009-08-28T18:07:00.002+05:302009-08-28T09:38:06.616+05:30Trading Idea: Buy United Phosphorus<strong><span style="font-size:130%;color:#3333ff;"></span></strong><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;color:#3333ff;">SHORT TERM TRADING CALL</span></strong><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">Charts Courtesy: </span><a href="http://www.icharts.in/"><span style="font-size:85%;">www.icharts.in</span></a><br /><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5374625394622020306" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 241px" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinWdtwY-8rQcnLMININ2-leIKcU-fOQ8mA3rY6MVU3XVAlBmvRkPXYpajNyEpFNKX2OnZRHYRZ9MQJtbGH1OAK-vwmpJ3VcdqurgYrJ_pd2N7DZjJGbvxJRTykxa5JM_3zPnX6-ZK3y7fd/s400/unit.bmp" border="0" /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;">BUY: United Phosphorus (Closing Price 168)</span></strong><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#3333ff;">Accumulation Zone: Rs.165-170</span><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#3333ff;">Stop Loss: Rs.158</span><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#3333ff;">Targets: T1 Rs.175, T2 Rs.185</span><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#3333ff;"></span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#cc33cc;"><strong>Updation of Past Calls:</strong></span><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;"></span></strong><br /><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="color:#ff0000;"><span style="color:#006600;"><strong>1)</strong> Tata Communication Buy call got active</span> <span style="color:#006600;">above Rs.520 today.</span></span><br /><span style="color:#006600;">Stop Loss for the same to be Rs.500, unless any changes intimated.</span><br /><span style="color:#006600;"><strong>2)</strong> Trail Stop Loss in HDIL Buy call from Rs.280 given earlier to Rs.290.</span><br /><span style="color:#006600;"><strong>3)</strong> Stop Loss in Orchid Chemicals Buy Call remains unchanged.</span><br /><span style="color:#006600;"><strong>4)</strong> Trail Stop Loss in Videocon from Rs.210 given earlier to Rs.222.</span> </span><br /><br /><span style="color:#cc33cc;"><strong>Note:</strong> First Target in both Videocon & Orchid Buy calls got achieved. It was recommended on the blog to Book 30% gains in Videocon & 60% gains in Orchid at levels of first targets.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"><strong>Disclaimer:</strong> All data, content and/or reports posted by Viral Rajnikant Dholakia on this site are only for information and educational purpose of visitor/readers of this blog. It does not constitute to be a recommendation/offer/advice to buy or sell assets/securities in any form. Individuals/organizations are requested to take an informed call by consulting their Financial Advisor before acting on any matter/data published on this blog. This blog does not warrant of any kind of accuracy, adequacy and completeness of data, ideas or thoughts published in it. This site and Viral Rajnikant Dholakia assumes no responsibility or liability or loss or damage of any kind/nature for your trading and investment decisions and its consequent results.</span>Viral Rajnikant Dholakiahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14517054276981728056noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7498038812786460685.post-75882986897993211952009-08-26T10:46:00.030+05:302009-08-26T12:40:27.507+05:30Trading Idea: Buy Videocon & Orchid Chemicals<strong><span style="font-size:130%;color:#3333ff;">SHORT TERM TRADING CALL</span></strong><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;color:#3333ff;"></span></strong><br />(Click on Charts for better clarity & enlarged view)<br />Charts Courtesy: <a href="http://www.icharts.in/">http://www.icharts.in/</a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJeEWfWPy4PMqSOYbbuyqGUGoaHI_KLCdBEel5RiYaoCwrEjqckwO0xg8OHeiJ3nsXnO_ZhHBSgMdrb7K1EyJfpB89cO5d4sOz7-TyktSSIZzi33HVbrDGL5X2X-HXSg70k1CsxQ7oNTZ1/s1600-h/untitled.bmp"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5374137586438400114" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 306px" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJeEWfWPy4PMqSOYbbuyqGUGoaHI_KLCdBEel5RiYaoCwrEjqckwO0xg8OHeiJ3nsXnO_ZhHBSgMdrb7K1EyJfpB89cO5d4sOz7-TyktSSIZzi33HVbrDGL5X2X-HXSg70k1CsxQ7oNTZ1/s400/untitled.bmp" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;"><strong>BUY: Videocon Industries (CMP 225)<br /></strong></span><span style="color:#006600;"><strong>Accumulation Zone: Rs.220-228<br />Stop Loss: Rs.210<br />Stop Loss (For High Risk Traders):</strong> </span><strong><span style="color:#006600;">Rs.200<br />Targets: T1 240, T2 260, T3 275.</span></strong><br /><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Stock View:</span></strong> The stock has witnessed a break out from a broad trading range Rs.140-200 since last 3 months starting from June 2009. The stock has also witnessed a breakout from a narrow trading range of Rs.180-210 for the month of August 2009. A conical pattern was observed since the second week of August indicating indecisiveness among bulls and bears for this stock.<br /><br /><strong>However, a move above this conical pattern since 24th August gives enough hint for an upside breakout from the narrow conial range of last 1 month and the broad trading range seen since 3 months.</strong> Also, the move of last couple of days is backed by higher volumes. Traders can accumulate the stock in the range of Rs.220-228 with SL of 210 (SL of Rs.210 for high risk traders) with substantial higher targets as mentioned in the above call. Traders should have courage to ride out the volatilty of highly inflated markets.</span><br /><br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYN0uWoRgNyi-QgzJXZdUM88sMnl1jjUL0V45oo5ihSGhKCr4Kk9mkkVS04Gd1tBacEY0fprEvRG_1NY_PC0WDWDSUkRKPqAUfHg69aO-kOJ_igCDQ07mwMhJlQxJc5olOchlBcypr3FOm/s1600-h/untitled1.bmp"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5374161420564440034" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 241px" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYN0uWoRgNyi-QgzJXZdUM88sMnl1jjUL0V45oo5ihSGhKCr4Kk9mkkVS04Gd1tBacEY0fprEvRG_1NY_PC0WDWDSUkRKPqAUfHg69aO-kOJ_igCDQ07mwMhJlQxJc5olOchlBcypr3FOm/s400/untitled1.bmp" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-family:times new roman;font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;">BUY: Orchid Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals (CMP 118)</span><br /></strong><span style="font-size:130%;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;color:#3333ff;">Accumulation Zone: Small Qty @CMP, </span><br /><span style="font-family:times new roman;color:#3333ff;">Remaining in Rs.108-114 Zone</span><br /><strong><span style="font-family:times new roman;color:#3333ff;">Stop Loss: Rs.105</span></strong><br /><strong><span style="font-family:times new roman;color:#3333ff;">Stop Loss (For Low Risk Traders) : Rs.107</span></strong><br /><strong><span style="font-family:times new roman;color:#3333ff;">Targets: T1 125, T2 140.</span></strong></span><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:85%;"></span></strong><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"><strong>Disclaimer:</strong> All data, content and/or reports posted by Viral Rajnikant Dholakia on this site are only for information and educational purpose of visitor/readers of this blog. It does not constitute to be a recommendation/offer/advice to buy or sell assets/securities in any form. Individuals/organizations are requested to take an informed call by consulting their Financial Advisor before acting on any matter/data published on this blog. This blog does not warrant of any kind of accuracy, adequacy and completeness of data, ideas or thoughts published in it. This site and Viral Rajnikant Dholakia assumes no responsibility or liability or loss or damage of any kind/nature for your trading and investment decisions and its consequent results.</span>Viral Rajnikant Dholakiahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14517054276981728056noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7498038812786460685.post-8825204018229115782009-08-25T21:34:00.028+05:302009-08-25T22:31:02.159+05:30Trading Idea: Buy HDIL & Tata Comm.<strong><span style="font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;"></span></strong><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;">SHORT TERM TRADING CALL:</span></strong><br /><br />(Click on Charts for a better & enlarged view)<br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjg3vTxhF5KnNRaWH7sz_9vGlOB8bHMVe0UFeES3jDUiiaQkwoJxJ0Eozwe40mEEArSnVH8OzEK-dMBrdXlGktPmWcaLb2_ERFzTspG93cJSm2N0_pJ-hsg6U-rGrCv94P6NoXzaeCufAB-/s1600-h/untitled1.bmp"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5373938398909721442" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 320px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 193px" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjg3vTxhF5KnNRaWH7sz_9vGlOB8bHMVe0UFeES3jDUiiaQkwoJxJ0Eozwe40mEEArSnVH8OzEK-dMBrdXlGktPmWcaLb2_ERFzTspG93cJSm2N0_pJ-hsg6U-rGrCv94P6NoXzaeCufAB-/s320/untitled1.bmp" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#3333ff;"></span><br />(Charts Courtesy: <a href="http://www.icharts.in/">http://www.icharts.in/</a>)<br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;"><span style="color:#3333ff;"><strong><span style="color:#cc33cc;">BUY: HDIL (CMP 294)</span></strong><br />Accumulation Zone: Rs.292-298<br />Stop Loss (SL): Rs.280<br />Targets: T1 Rs.315, T2 Rs.330</span></span><br /><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;"><strong>SIGNAL BASED TRADING CALL</strong></span><br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimFb1VC3AG0T9_tWbQfigd3ek6vfhPuqY45hgJ2OtmGXPgkGbBj7XUHzrPMmdawgqqelzqhX1O271NR1HPp7N86Tw9gcFnXU4uCdOODlqofQ-CbgznCMq6wui_c_UenJUxOMvAu85KRU09/s1600-h/untitled.bmp"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5373943764228137394" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 320px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 193px" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimFb1VC3AG0T9_tWbQfigd3ek6vfhPuqY45hgJ2OtmGXPgkGbBj7XUHzrPMmdawgqqelzqhX1O271NR1HPp7N86Tw9gcFnXU4uCdOODlqofQ-CbgznCMq6wui_c_UenJUxOMvAu85KRU09/s320/untitled.bmp" border="0" /></a><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#3333ff;"></span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"><strong></strong></span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"><strong></strong></span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"><strong></strong></span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"><strong></strong></span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"><strong></strong></span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"><strong></strong></span><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;"></span></strong><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;"></span></strong><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;"></span></strong><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;"></span></strong><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;"></span></strong><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;"></span></strong><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;color:#cc33cc;">BUY: Tata Communication</span></strong><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#3333ff;">Accumulation Zone: <em><strong>Above </strong></em>520</span><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#3333ff;">SL: To be Updated Later</span> <span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="color:#3333ff;">(once call gets Active above 520)</span><br /></span><span style="font-size:130%;color:#3333ff;">Targets: T1 560, T2 590</span><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#3333ff;"></span><br /><strong><span style="font-size:85%;"></span></strong><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"><strong>Disclaimer:</strong> All data, content and/or reports posted by Viral Rajnikant Dholakia on this site are only for information and educational purpose of visitor/readers of this blog. It does not constitute to be a recommendation/offer/advice to buy or sell assets/securities in any form. Individuals/organizations are requested to take an informed call by consulting their Financial Advisor before acting on any matter/data published on this blog. This blog does not warrant of any kind of accuracy, adequacy and completeness of data, ideas or thoughts published in it. This site and Viral Rajnikant Dholakia assumes no responsibility or liability or loss or damage of any kind/nature for your trading and investment decisions and its consequent results.</span>Viral Rajnikant Dholakiahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14517054276981728056noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7498038812786460685.post-34792553417014115372009-08-08T11:16:00.022+05:302009-08-08T17:05:17.875+05:30Correction: A Cool-off to Say the Least<p><span style="font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;"><strong></strong></span></p><p><span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;"><strong></strong></span></p><p><span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;"><strong>Twice Tested, Much Stronger!! -<br />The Resistence at Nifty 4750. </strong></span></p><p><span style="font-family:verdana;color:#3333ff;">We have witnessed a strong <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">resistance</span> in Nifty at around 4725. The journey from nifty 3900 to 4700 was as exciting as one could imagine with almost a one-way ride in the upward direction. Nifty 4700 were the levels which were tested during Mid-June 2009 only to form a top for that month. Those levels are back to hound the market in form of stiff r<span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">esistance</span> to surpass. So, <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">until</span> this crucial zone of 4700-4750 gets taken out on the upside, it would be safe to assume that the Nifty broad range remains 3900 to 4750, a steady 800 point range. A narrow range could be spelled in between 4250 to 4750 range or 4400 to 4750 range, whichever stands the test of time.</span></p><p><span style="font-family:verdana;color:#3333ff;">Once again Nifty succumbed after testing 4730 during the first week of August 2009. On the downside, many important levels have come and gone. But, as of now, it would be safe to presume that the 'uptrend' is intact and this could just be a correction before next trending move. Markets have reversed from Nifty 3900 to 4700 without a breather. So, as of today, we can conclude that markets are in a short correction mode. Support for Nifty could be sought at 4400 or even 4250 on the lower side. Traders can buy around 4400-4450 with <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">Stop Loss</span> of 4380 with a probable target of 4650-4700 again. However, formally, if there is a tradeable call from my side, I will post it on blog as was done during previous week. Below 4380, another 100 point crack-down on Nifty can't be ruled out.</span></p><p><span style="font-family:verdana;color:#3333ff;"></span></p><p><span style="color:#3333ff;"><span style="font-family:verdana;"><strong><span style="font-family:georgia;font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;">What could be the Chances of Revival Again?</span></strong> </span></span></p><p><span style="font-family:verdana;color:#3333ff;">We can again test 4700 after some bit of consolidation at lower levels. Support lies around 4250-4400, which ever stands the test of time.The broad range continues to be Nifty 3900-4700. Below Nifty 4250, the consolidation and waiting time could be for an extended period & may be even questions could be raised on the existence of current market uptrend if such crucial level is breached on the downside.</span></p><p><span style="color:#006600;"><span style="font-family:verdana;"><strong>Can we again cross 4750?</strong> Quite possibly, we could go to 4900-5200 zone before this phase of exuberance come to a halt. Markets have a tendency to top-out when there is excess euphoria in the system and it succeeds in inducing investors to take an entry at higher levels when every thing is looking <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">gung</span>-ho and optimistic. </span></span></p><p><span style="font-family:verdana;color:#006600;">This is the way markets usually work: on the downside, weak hands are induced to lighten up their positions based on news and rumours of pessimism. This stock gradually moves in the hand of big people; the mentality that gets worked over at this stage is 'Fear'. Similarly, at the <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">exuberant</span> and higher levels, weaker hands take an entry at higher levels, when everything is looking <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">optimistic</span>. At such times, strong hands loosen their positions only to be dumped with weaker section of the system. The factor that works out at this stage is 'Greed' which induces investors to take entry at higher levels.</span></p><p><span style="font-family:verdana;color:#3333ff;"><strong>However, it is too soon to think about such higher levels as Nifty 4900-5200 zone, unless we cross 4750. But, I have a feeling that 4700 will come for yet another testing in near future. Markets will decide for itself whether Nifty 4750 needs to be taken out on the higher side or not, but before that: a Re-test of 4700 is more imminent prior to a big trending move either on the <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">upside</span> on downside. Well, markets could as well prove me wrong.</strong></span></p><p><strong><span style="font-family:verdana;color:#3333ff;"></span></strong></p><p><strong><span style="font-family:verdana;font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;">Money Making with Nifty</span></strong></p><p><span style="font-family:verdana;color:#cc33cc;">During the previous week, on this blog, Two Carry Forward Position were recommended in Nifty. One as a Trend player and one as a Hedge against the same. We cheerfully ended the Net position with smart gains as follows:</span></p><p><span style="font-family:verdana;color:#000000;"><strong>Date: July 29, 2009</strong></span></p><p><span style="color:#cc33cc;"><span style="font-family:verdana;"><strong>Nifty Trading (Positional):</strong><br />Sell in 4500-4550 zone<br />Stop Loss 4620 (Must have)<br />Targets 4425-4380</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family:verdana;color:#000000;"><strong>Date: July 30, 2009</strong></span></p><p><span style="color:#cc33cc;"><span style="font-family:verdana;"><strong>COUNTER NIFTY POSITION</strong><br />Buy in 4520-4540 Range<br />Stop Loss of 4470<br />Target 4650-4700<br /><br />This Nifty view is opposite to the one mentioned above on July 29. One call will get stopped out and other will run at Profits in the direction of next trending move for the markets.</span></span></p><p><strong><span style="font-family:verdana;color:#000000;">Date: August 03, 2009</span></strong></p><p><span style="color:#cc33cc;"><span style="font-family:verdana;"><strong>NIFTY PROFITS BOOKED</strong><br />SL trigerred in the Nifty Sell call dated July 29 at 4620 & Profits booked in Nifty Buy call dated July 30 at 4700.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family:verdana;color:#cc33cc;">Loss: 4620 - 4550 = 70 points<br />Profit: 4700 - 4540 = 160 points.<br />Net Profit: 160 - 70 = 90 points.</span></p><p><span style="color:#cc33cc;"><span style="font-family:verdana;">If you would dealt in Minifty, your profits should be 90 points x 20 units = Rs.1800/-If you would have dealt in Full Nifty, your profits should be 90 points x 50 units = Rs.4500/-</span><br /></p></span><p><strong><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span></strong></p><p><span style="font-size:85%;"><strong>Disclaimer:</strong> All data, content and/or reports posted by Viral Rajnikant Dholakia on this site are only for information and educational purpose of visitor/readers of this blog. It does not constitute to be a recommendation/offer/advice to buy or sell assets/securities in any form. Individuals/organizations are requested to take an informed call by consulting their Financial Advisor before acting on any matter/data published on this blog. This blog does not warrant of any kind of accuracy, adequacy and completeness of data, ideas or thoughts published in it. This site and Viral Rajnikant Dholakia assumes no responsibility or liability or loss or damage of any kind/nature for your trading and investment decisions and its consequent results. </span></p><p></p>Viral Rajnikant Dholakiahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14517054276981728056noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7498038812786460685.post-83361904105875755652009-07-21T18:36:00.010+05:302009-07-22T09:45:52.630+05:30Time For A Small Break??<span style="color:#006600;"><strong><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0"></span></strong></span><br /><span style="color:#006600;"><strong><span class="blsp-spelling-error">Abhay</span> has posted a query in the 'Comments' section regarding movement in Nifty and market trend. As per his comment he is expecting some cool down after recent sharp <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">up move</span> in last few sessions.</strong></span><br /><br />DEAR VIRAL,<br />I HOPING AND SOME WHAT PREDICTING FOR A 100-300 PT CORRECTION IN NIFTY IN VERY SHORT TERM. WHAT ARE YOUR VIEWS?<br />REGARDS <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">ABHAY</span><br /><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;">Firstly, important to understand over here that the Trend has again turned in the upward direction in the near term. The break down below Nifty 4250 proved false for a sustained down trend. Nifty has bounced back <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">vigorously</span> after testing 3900 on the downside. Since then Nifty has fully engulfed the bearish move by rising above an important resistance of 4250 levels and now within testing distance to break above 4500 zone.</span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"><strong>A correction of about 125-200 points on Nifty could be more likely, after witnessing a steep run-up in last week. But, again, it may or may not happen as per our expectation. Markets might as well choose to simply consolidate around current levels before next <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">up move</span>.</strong></span><br /><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;">But no markets can move in single direction for a long time. So, traders should preferably look for a dip to take an entry at lower levels. During such strong momentum, even the corrections could turn out to be short lived or sometimes even as compressed in nature as <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">intra</span>-day correction only. Traders can buy around Nifty 4250 (which seems a bit unlikely even if markets choose to correct marginally) to 4350 zone. Accumulation of first lot of buying could be done around Nifty 4350-4300 which could prove to be a health entry point from Trading perspective. If markets choose to correct from here, traders can buy around Nifty 4350 with target of 4600-4700 on the upside, when the rally blooms again after a short correction.</span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;">On the other hand, long term investors need to wait patiently and hold on to their holdings and record price appreciation for their existing portfolio. Investors were recommended to start accumulation in Nifty 3900-3950 zone during the recent downturn. But, we missed out on aggressive buying spree as lower levels looked imminent then, but didn't turn up. <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">At least</span>, we were able to do some bit of cherry picking at the lowest point of the past 4250-3900 range. Investing should be a slow and a patient affair.</span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:85%;color:#000000;"><strong>Disclaimer</strong>: All data, content and/or reports posted by Viral <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">Rajnikant</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8">Dholakia</span> on this site are only for information and educational purpose of visitor/readers of this blog. It does not constitute to be a recommendation/offer/advice to buy or sell assets/securities in any form. Individuals/organizations are requested to take an informed call by consulting their Financial Advisor before acting on any matter/data published on this blog. This blog does not warrant of any kind of accuracy, adequacy and completeness of data, ideas or thoughts published in it. This site and Viral <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_9">Rajnikant</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_10">Dholakia</span> assumes no responsibility or liability or loss or damage of any kind/nature for your trading and investment decisions and its consequent results.</span>Viral Rajnikant Dholakiahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14517054276981728056noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7498038812786460685.post-55246807116054862582009-07-19T18:39:00.016+05:302009-08-08T18:34:24.944+05:30PSU Stake Sale in Low Float Counters<span style="font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;"><strong></strong></span><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;"><strong>Disinvestment & Valuations. </strong></span><br /><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;">'Disinvestment'</span><span style="color:#3333ff;">- this was the theme on which speculators played a big bet before Budget announcement. Markets participants has expected some big announcement in lines of disinvestment or stake sale in public companies. In this post, I would like to throw some light on one aspect of <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">PSU</span> stake sale i.e., <em>Valuations of already listed <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">PSU</span> companies on Indian <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">bourses</span>.</em></span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;">Low floating stocks are those stocks where a majority of the stake is owned by promoters and its group, thus limiting the scope of shares open to trading in public. Take, for instance, listed but government owned companies like <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">NMDC</span> & <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">MMTC</span> where the Centre has a whooping over 98% stake in each of these companies. In such companies, the stock in float for retail investors and institutional investors is very low and limited. The stock price and valuations of such companies are based on a low floating stock in public, thus making investment and trading in such stocks susceptible to high volatility and lower average volumes more often than not.</span><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;">Fluctuation at its most Extreme</span></strong><br /><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;">Most of the times, fluctuations in such stocks are often locked in up or down circuits based on the flow of news in the respective counters. It is relatively easier to manipulate the stock prices of such counters based on low outstanding shares in float. Such counters can be lifted with little or no institutional support due to low floating stock in public. Usually the charts of such stocks depict a vertical rise or fall during a period or it could as well be in shape of 'Steps' where the stock's chart pattern resembles as if moving on the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">pre</span>-determined side after every planned phase of consolidation.</span><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;">Competitiveness & Transparency</span></strong><br /><br /><span style="color:#006600;">From all above, I simply intend say that in selective stocks with low float, the valuations could be on the higher side during times when the news flow is in favour (For example, disinvestment in PSU counters) of the stock. Such stocks could move up on the school of thought that further divestment could enhance the liquidity and volumes for the counter. In stocks, especially, where the promoters are Government, the usual process of thinking that goes into it is that as more stake from government sets free and as private institutions/retail investors gets more hold of the stake in the counter, the management will gradually strengthen, become transparent and be more competitive in nature.<br /></span><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;">A Slow Process of Price Adjustment</span></strong><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;"></span></strong><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;">But, the other side to the story could also be that the excess valuations and speculative interest that such counter received till now based on its low float, could somehow become lose the sheen with higher float in the public/institutional domain. However, coming back to <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">NMDC</span> or <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">MMTC</span> where fundamentals are sound, could be a good investment pick for investors but for the excessive euphoria created in these stocks just before the budget announcement. </span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"></span><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8">NMDC</span> which had slumped to Rs.115 at <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_9">Sensex</span> 8000 levels, had clawed back to Rs.450 until Budget announcement before it settles around Rs.400 zone at last week's closing tick. The stock has moved up a whooping 400% during the period under contention as mentioned above. Same goes for <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_10">MMTC</span> which has appreciated from Rs.9100 levels at lows which has ended up at Rs.31200 at last week's closing level. Both the stocks are sustaining high valuations based on their price to earning multiples.</span><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;">The Buck Stops at Demand-Supply Equation</span></strong><br /><br /><span style="font-family:verdana;"><span style="color:#cc33cc;">The intent of this post on the blog is not to discourage readers planning to enter low floating stocks or encouraging them to exit such counters if they already hold them. Also, it is not necessary that all low floating stocks ought to be expensive. At times, there could be counters where the float is low but the volumes are healthy.<br /><br /><strong>The intent is simply to Alert the readers that in counters where there could be near-term opportunity of price appreciation in such disinvestment candidates with majority stake in government's hold; the valuations in such stocks may find it difficult to sustain at higher levels as the floating stock and volume increases for trading in the open market during the longer time span. The simple logic that could apply over here is that with low floating stock the demand for the stock far out-strips the supply in such counters.</strong></span></span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"><strong>Disclaimer:</strong> All data, content and/or reports posted by Viral <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_11">Rajnikant</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_12">Dholakia</span> on this site are only for information and educational purpose of visitor/readers of this blog. It does not constitute to be a recommendation/offer/advice to buy or sell assets/securities in any form. Individuals/organizations are requested to take an informed call by consulting their Financial Advisor before acting on any matter/data published on this blog. This blog does not warrant of any kind of accuracy, adequacy and completeness of data, ideas or thoughts published in it. This site and Viral <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_13">Rajnikant</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_14">Dholakia</span> assumes no responsibility or liability or loss or damage of any kind/nature for your trading and investment decisions and its consequent results.</span>Viral Rajnikant Dholakiahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14517054276981728056noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7498038812786460685.post-55398952830530529612009-07-18T11:22:00.015+05:302009-08-08T18:34:51.000+05:30Is Trend Reversal Imminent?<span style="font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;"><strong></strong></span><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;"><strong>Volatility Revisited </strong></span><br /><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;">A key feature of the market in last 15 days has been 'Volatility'. Stock markets at first developed a narrow range of Nifty 4200-4650 prior to budget. Post budget, as markets got a major event to react on, it breached the range on the downside taking cues from the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">FM's</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">announcement or rather say lack of announcement</span>. A crucial support got breached at Nifty 4200 levels to test lower levels until 3920 in next few sessions.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;"><strong>Did You Buy in Nifty 3900-3950 Zone?</strong></span><br /><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;">The idea was to fill up the gap left open since election results i.e., Nifty 3650-4350. The gap got filled only partially <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">up to</span> Nifty 3900 levels. This blog had clearly hinted in my previous posting that the <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">targeted</span> gap need not necessarily be filled at this very attempt. An initial target of Nifty 3800-3850 was clearly spelled out. Keeping in lieu of this target, investors were suggested to start accumulating stocks in between 3900-3950 range as a start-up call.</span><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;">Need of the Hour: Consolidation</span></strong><br /><br /><span style="color:#3333ff;">Next few days, markets jumped up as <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">vigorously</span> as it had slumped during Nifty fall from 4250 to 3900. As mentioned in the previous post, a trend reversal is <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">possible</span> above Nifty 4400. Now, we're quite near to those levels and we till need to see whether Nifty 4400 is being crossed over and sustained above that. By ensuring sustenance, we'll understand that the break-out above 4400 is not a false one.</span><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;">Traders can Buy on Dips, Investors can Hold on</span></strong><br /><br /><span style="color:#993300;"><span style="font-family:verdana;">The recently visited bearish range at Nifty 3900-4250 is fully engulfed, as Nifty has moved above 4250 with a weekly closing above the bearish range. The rise witnessed from the lows of 3900 was a vertical rise executed in only 4 sessions. This may call for some consolidation and range bound movement preferably in narrow range of Nifty 4250-4450 in short-term horizon or a broader range of Nifty 4000-4650 over medium term horizon. <strong>Keeping these ranges in view, traders can buy stocks at lower levels on dips or nearer to their respective support zones. Investors can hold on to their long positions unless there is re-emergence of any sort of bearish break down.</strong></span></span><br /><strong></strong><br /><span style="font-size:130%;color:#ff0000;"><strong>Leave Your Comments</strong></span><br /><strong></strong><br /><span style="color:#009900;"><span style="color:#006600;">Before concluding this post, let me pose a 'Thinker' for the readers. Readers can use their free time to ponder upon following aspect on the markets: The post-election gap on the charts at Nifty 3650-4350 has been partially filled <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">up to</span> 3900. The remaining gap of 3650-3900 is still pending to be filled in future. Will it be filled in near-term or will it be revisited upon in medium-term? Also, is it possible that markets can completely get away without filling this gap? The gap is still a substantial 250 point range. You can as well leave your views in the 'Comments' section.</span><br /></span><br /><span style="font-size:85%;"><strong>Disclaimer:</strong> All data, content and/or reports posted by Viral Rajnikant Dholakia on this site are only for information and educational purpose of visitor/readers of this blog. It does not constitute to be a recommendation/offer/advice to buy or sell assets/securities in any form. Individuals/organizations are requested to take an informed call by consulting their Financial Advisor before acting on any matter/data published on this blog. This blog does not warrant of any kind of accuracy, adequacy and completeness of data, ideas or thoughts published in it. This site and Viral Rajnikant Dholakia assumes no responsibility or liability or loss or damage of any kind/nature for your trading and investment decisions and its consequent results.</span>Viral Rajnikant Dholakiahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14517054276981728056noreply@blogger.com0