Specious Argument

Two Dance Videos

2012-04-08T21:30:00Z

I have two dance YouTubes for you to watch. These are especially great YouTubes if you've had a challenging day. I encourage to you view the videos at full size at YouTube's site. For those tuning in via RSS, I have provided direct links. I don't know how to properly embed YouTubes so that they appear in RSS feeds.

The first is Where the Hell is Matt? (2008). It's a fun, frivilous Youtube. One friend remarked, "His movement vocabulary is a little limited, but the spirit is right on. One should never suppress the urge to dance."

The next dance YouTube is Polina Semionova (HD - Ballet - H. Grönemeyer - instrumental). Semionova's dancing is magical. I am amazed that any individual can move with such beauty and grace.

I hope you enjoy the dance videos.

Alberta Ballet - Swan Lake

2012-04-01T00:30:00Z

On the evening of Wednesday, 29 March 2011, I watched Alberta Ballet's production of Swan Lake. The choreography and staging were by Kirk Peterson after Marius Petipa and Lev Ivanov. Peter Dala conducted The Calgary Philharmonic Orchestra. Pyotr Ilyich Tchaikovsky created the music.

I thoroughly loved the production. After Cinderella, which I saw on 9 February 2011, Swan Lake is the second classical ballet that I have seen. And with the Calgary Philharmonic Orchestra playing, it was even more special.

During the pre-show chat, Peterson gave a discussion on the ballet as well as some helpful pointers. Being new to ballet, I miss much of what is obvious to many. For example, Peterson provided some quick pointers on the mime that we would see that evening. When the mime is performed, it appears rather obvious. However, as a newcomer to ballet, I am watching everything as closely as possible and don't always recognize the obvious. So I am thankful to Alberta Ballet for always providing a pre-show chat. I find these sessions invaluable.

And having read Jennifer Homans's book Apollo's Angels: A History of Ballet, I have more of an appreciation of the ballet's history. Unlike many other art forms, ballet is an oral tradition. That is, dancers and choreographers pass ballets on to others through their their dance and oral communication. Prior to video, there was no means to accurately capture and record dance movements.

The dancing, staging, and lighting were spectacular. Just watching the energy in the dancers, I knew that they were enjoying this performance. Hayna Guitierrez and Elier Bourzac, both from Cuba, were a joy to watch. Indeed all members were to a joy to watch.

For those wanting a more in-depth review of the performance, I direct you to the Calgary Herald where Bob Clark wrote his review Alberta Ballet's Swan Lake an evening of exquisite dance.

At the end of the performance, the audience gave Alberta Ballet a much deserved standing ovation. Given the warm, positive reception, I hope Alberta Ballet provides more classical ballets in the future.

Below are the artists and their roles. Many of the dancers alternated roles on alternate performances. I like to keep track of the artists that I saw perform.

Congratulations Alberta Ballet, and thank you for the wonderful performance.

Odette, the Swan Queen

Hayna Gutierrez

Prince Siegfried

Elier Bourzac

Von Rothbart, an Evil Sorcerer

Mark Wax

Odile, Von Rothbart's Daughter

Hayna Gutierrez

Benno, Prince Siegfried's Friend

Yukichi Hattori

The Queen, Prince Siegfried's Mother

Galien Johnston

Wolfgang, Tutor to the Prince

Alexandrous Ballard

Pas de Trois, Act I

Yukichi Hattori
Alison Dubsky
Asaka Homma

Pas de Trois, Act II

Yukichi Hattori
Alison Dubsky
Asaka Homma

Lead Attendant Swan Maidens

Asaka Homma
Alison Dubsky

Lead Swan Maidens

Skye Balfour-Ducharme
Nicole Caron

Four Cygnets

Melissa Boniface
Jennifer Gibson
Alexandra Gibson
Tara Williamson

Opening of the Court

Garret Groat
Nicolas Pelletier
Jaciel Gomez
Colby Parsons

Waltz of the Fiancées

Yairelys Sosa
Skye Balfour-Ducharme
Jennifer Gibson
Melissa Boniface
Emily Collier
Reilly Bell

Master of Ceremonies

Alexandrous Ballard

Swan Maidens, Act I Waltz, Members of the Court, Royal Escorts, Ladies in Waiting, Servants and Heralds

Artists of Alberta Ballet and students of the School of the Alberta Ballet

Bill C-30: Lawful Access

2012-02-15T01:10:00Z

Open Letter

Dear Honourable Prime Minister:

I am going to send you a couple of articles from the NY Times via email from NY Times, where police placed GPS units on vehicles to track them.

Justices Say GPS Tracker Violated Privacy Rights

WASHINGTON -- The Supreme Court on Monday ruled unanimously that the police violated the Constitution when they placed a Global Positioning System tracking device on a suspect's car and monitored its movements for 28 days.

If, without court approval, the police can access my cell phone records and/or computer internet records, they will have performed an even more invasive search of my personal privacy.

Why would or should Canadians allow their government or police to invade their privacy without appropriate court approval? Shouldn't Canadians be allowed the freedom to privately assemble in person or in virtual space without big brother overlooking their activities? Would you expect a great nation such as Canada to permit such an egregious violation of dignity and personal privacy?

If we are lecturing China on their human rights, should we not set a great example ourselves?

He who would trade liberty for some temporary security, deserves neither liberty nor security.

- Benjamin Franklin

Sincerely,
Kevin H. Stecyk
Calgary

I included the following articles by email:

Important

Please sign the petition: Stop Online Spying.

Social Media Sites

2012-01-31T22:00:00Z

I need to be more active on my blog. But in the interim, you can find me at these three social media sites:

When I find interesting articles, I often post them on Facebook and Google +. Although I am not a frequent tweeter, I do post tweets about whatever I find interesting.

Lately, I haven't been commenting much on financial stuff because it has been risk on or risk off, depending upon what was happening in Europe. If, as it appears, that Europe is settling down, then I will begin commenting more.

Alberta Ballet - The Nutcracker

2011-12-31T21:30:00Z

On the evening of 17 December 2011, I saw Alberta Ballet's The Nutcracker. This performance was the first time that I had seen this ballet.

The Nutcracker is a well known ballet to most everyone, and even if you have never seen this ballet, you have heard Pyotr Ilyich Tchaikovsky's music. It's beautiful and unforgetable.

Having recently completed Jennifer Homans's book Apollo's Angels: A History of Ballet, I had a stronger appreciation for the ballet. Of course, I enjoyed the wonderful dancing. The dancers, including all the children dancers, were great. Everyone seemed to have a lot of energy and enthusiasm. Even prior to the performance, I saw some of the young dancers in the lobby area excited to be performing that evening.

Knowing some of the ballet's history, I found myself traveling back in time as I watched the ballet. I enjoyed how Alberta Ballet created scenes from Russia near the 1900s. Even the wheelchair had an authentic look.

The Nutcracker has become a holiday staple. If you have never seen it, I encourage you to see it next year.

On the evening of the 17th, the following artists were featured:

Klara: Asaka Homma
Drosselmeyer: Kelley McKinlay
Karl/Nutcracker: Anthony Pina
Father: Kelly McKinlay
Mother: Melissa Boniface
Nikolai: Yukichi Hattori
Babushka: Beverly Bagg
Grandfather: Blair Puente
Hussar Doll: Davidson Jaconello
Ballerina Doll: Alison Dubsky
Rat Doll: Garret Groat
Males Guests, Female Guests, Calvalry & Wolves: Artists of the Alberta Ballet and Students of the Alberta Ballet
Rat Tsar: Garret Groat
Snow Tsarina: Alison Dubsky
Snowflakes: Artists of the Alberta Ballet and Students of the Alberta Ballet
Spanish: Hayna Gutierrez
Arabian: Emily Collier, Davidson Jaconello & Andrea Battaggia
Chinese: Nicole Caron & Peter Starr
Russian: Mark Wax & David Neal
Flowers & Flower Cavaliers: Artists of the Alberta Ballet and Students of the Alberta Ballet
Sugar Plum Fairy: Tara Williamson
Her Cavalier: Jaciel Gomez

There were numerous children cast as Party Girls, Party Boys, Little Mice, Cossack Rats, Soldiers, Palace Page Girls, and Palace Page Boys.

I hope everyone had a great holiday period. And I wish everyone a Happy, Healthy, and Prosperous New Year 2012!

Uncertainty In Europe Renders Stock Analysis Useless

2011-11-27T22:00:00Z

Note to Seeking Alpha, please don't bother publishing this article. This article doesn't offer any indepth analysis or advice.

Normally, I can investigate a company's financials and business outlook to arrive at an investment thesis. I might wish to go long, short, or just ignore the company and its stock altogether.

But right now, with the heightened uncertainty in Europe, analysis is useless. Correlations among most equity securities are close to one, and the headline risk dominates any security analysis. If the headlines are positive, then it is risk on, or, if the headlines are poor or uncertain, it's risk off.

I suspect that most fiduciaries have moved to the sidelines as much as possible. While they might miss a rally, their primary concern is not to be caught in a meltdown. Later, if necessary, they will chase the market upward. If Europe is able to stabilize for a while, then we might be in a position for a major advance. There are a lot of ifs and maybes.

While I have reduced my exposure to the markets from my summer levels, I still have reasonable exposure. Depending upon how Europe plays out, this might be a wise or not-so-wise strategy.

Of the articles I read this weekend, here are two articles with opposite directions. First, a negative or cautious Telegraph article: Prepare for riots in euro collapse, Foreign Office warns. Preparing for riots doesn't sound encouraging, does it? Next, a positive or hopeful Bloomberg article IMF Readying Loan of as Much as $794 Billion for Italy, La Stampa Reports. If the IMF or some other party rides to the rescue, then that will certainly influence Monday's markets.

Unfortunately, I do not have much to offer in terms of advice or recommendations. For now, I suggest paying attention to the headlines and making sure that your portfolio can withstand these challenging times.

Royal Winnipeg Ballet - Wonderland

2011-10-31T00:00:00Z

On Thursday, 27 October 2011, I attended the Royal Winnipeg Ballet's Wonderland.

The ballet is basd on Lewis Carrol's Alice in Wonderland, a story that we're all familiar with.

I was curious as to how a ballet could capture our minds' imagination to create a convincing story. When I saw the performance, I was impressed with the multimedia and stage sets. The Royal Winnipeg Ballet successfully recreated a story that was a joy to watch.

In looking around the audience, I noticed a larger proportion of children than usual, which is always a good thing. However, even us older children enjoy the ballet. If you watch and listen carefully, there are always messages that are applicable to all us, regardless of our age or station in life

"Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?" "That depends a good deal on where you want to get to," said the Cat. "I don't much care where--" said Alice. "Then it doesn't matter which way you go," said the Cat. "--so long as I get SOMEWHERE," Alice added as an explanation. "Oh, you're sure to do that," said the Cat, "if you only walk long enough."

Although Wonderland is not a physically demanding ballet, I enjoyed watching the dancers perform. Because of the storyline, the attention was focused on Alice and the Queen of Hearts. Both were exceptional. I also took notice of the Dormouse.

Although it is too late to recommend Wonderland to Calgary audiences, I highly encourage those in Edmonton to enjoy the ballet this week.

The cast for last Thursday's performance is as follows:

Alice: Amanda Green
Queen of Hearts: Tara Birtwhistle
White Rabbit: Yosuke Mino
Mad Hatter: Amar Dhaliwal
March Hare: Jo-Ann Sundermeier
Dormouse: Emily Grizzell
TweedleDee & TweedleDum: Tristan Dobrowney & Thiago Dos Santos
Duchess: Eric Nipp
Cook: Yayoi Ezawa
Toony Loons: Alex Lantz, Thiago Dos Santos, Liam Caines, Zhen Guo Chen, Sophia Lee, Alanna McAdie, and Catherine Rutherford
Creatures: Thiago Dos Santos, Alex Lantz, Liam Caines, Zhen Guo Chen
Birds: Jo-Ann Sundermeier, Dmitri Dovgoselets, Beth Lamont, Sarah Davey, Harrison James, Tristan Dobrowney, Serena Sandford, and Alexander Garmayunov
Tooney Cooks: Sophia Lee, Catherine Rutherford, Thiago Dos Santos, and Liam Caines
Caterpillar: Carrie Broda, Alexander Gamayunov, Tristan Dobrowney, and Alex Lantz
Flamingos: Carrie Broda, Yayoi Ezawa, Serena Sandford, and Sarah Davey
Cards: Alanna McAdie, Catherine Rutherford, Sophia Lee, Zhen Guo Chen, Alex Lantz, Liam Caines, Beth Lamont, and Harrison James
Wall of Heads: Queen of Hearts, Alice, Duchess, Mad Hatter, and Flamingos
Flowers: Sophia Lee, Sarah Davey, Yayoi Ezawa, Serena Sandford, Carrie Broda, Catherine Rutherfod, Beth Lamont, and Emily Grizzel
Gryphon & Mock Turtle: Wang Yun, Jiao Yang, and Dmitri Dovgoselets

Random Thoughts 30 September 2011

2011-09-30T21:00:00Z

The markets have been extremely difficult to navigate during the past two months with the brouhaha over in Europe taking center stage. As I write this post after the close on Friday, I note that VIX is at nearly 43 and VXO is at nearly 44. These are extreme measures.

In light of this uncertain financial environment, I have adjusted my positions. Like most investors, I have suffered with the onset of the uncertainty. And, perhaps unlike some, I have de-risked or reduced my exposure. However, I am still not entirely comfortable with my new positions, because the European situation is so uncertain.

The trick is to stay in the game. Make sure that your risk exposure is something you can live with. As Todd Harrison says over at Minyvanville.com, "... [There will be] fewer and newer players by the time we get to the other side."

As I was winding up my day last night, I read George Soros's article How to stop a second Great Depression in the Financial Times.

Financial markets are driving the world towards another Great Depression with incalculable political consequences. The authorities, particularly in Europe, have lost control of the situation. They need to regain control and they need to do so now.

Three bold steps are needed. First, the governments of the eurozone must agree in principle on a new treaty creating a common treasury for the eurozone. In the meantime, the major banks must be put under European Central Bank direction in return for a temporary guarantee and permanent recapitalisation. The ECB would direct the banks to maintain their credit lines and outstanding loans, while closely monitoring risks taken for their own accounts. Third, the ECB would enable countries such as Italy and Spain to temporarily refinance their debt at a very low cost. These steps would calm the markets and give Europe time to develop a growth strategy, without which the debt problem cannot be solved.

In addition to Soros's article, I viewed a video interview Fear will save the eurozone with Lawrence Summers and Martin Wolf of the Financial Times. Although it doesn't have an inspiring title, it is a worthwhile interview.

Please note, you might require a subscription to view the article and video interview.

Make sure that your positions do not leave you with excessive risk. I hope your trading and investing goes well in these uncertain and volatile times.

Random Thoughts 31 August 2011

2011-09-01T01:30:00Z

Please note: You can click through on each graph to show a larger version. The first graph is shows data from 1945 to present. And the second graph shows data from 2008 to present.

As part of mapping out my investment strategies, I try to determine where we are in the economic cycle. At present, we are at a confusing time. We have just finished QE 2, and the economy appears to be slowing precipitously. And to complicate matters further, Europe is in a mess. I do not even pretend to understand all of Europe's problems. I just know that several countries are having extreme problems and many of Europe's banks might be insolvent. So, as my first task, I am trying to understand the economic health of the United States.

About a week ago, CNBC interviewed Joe Petrowski, the CEO of Cumberland and Farms-Gulf Oil, concerning gasoline consumption and a possible recession. He indicated that gasoline consumption has fallen recently. To demonstrate the reduced volumes, I graphed Energy Information Administration's data.

Because gasoline is so important to our way of life, I think it is an excellent indicator of the health of the economy. As discussed by Petrowski and shown in the graphs, gasoline consumption has fallen in recent months. Yet, not all of the economic data points to a recession. However, the weakness in gasoline consumption does give me pause.

Like you, I am tired of the political squabbling in the United States. Political leaders should be putting aside their ideologies to solve our pressing problems; however, the politicians seem to see these times as an even better opportunity to score points. The behavior by all sides is shameful.

With regard to Europe, I do not think anyone, including various leaders in Europe, has a good handle on what problems are developing in Europe. Finland is demanding that it receive collateral for its participation in the Greece bailout. Finland and Greece as well as other countries have been trying to find a way to solve the collateral problem without giving all other countries collateral too. All involved keep issuing statements that they will solve this problem, even though they have been working on it for over a week with no solution in sight. Then Christine Lagarde, the former finance minister from France who is now the IMF chief, saying that the banks in Europe need capital. Yet, many of the European leaders say she is wrong. And, to top it off, we do not know which countries are in severe distress. Yes, Greece is in severe distress. But what about Italy and Spain? They appear to remain open questions.

Even though I read as much as I can about all these issues, I do not feel as though I have a strong grasp of all these issues. There is too much uncertainty about too many issues that are too important. Consequently, I have restructured my investment position to reduce my risk exposure.

Banff Summer Arts Festival: Dance 2011

2011-07-21T19:40:00Z

Last night I attended Banff Summer Arts Festival: Dance at the Harvie Theatre in Banff Centre. For those who enjoy live dance performances, I urge you to go. There are additional performances tonight, Friday, and Saturday.

As an aside, after the performances are over, the prior link might be broken.

The Professional Dance program was developed in 2008 with Alberta Ballet, Ballet British Columbia, Ballet Jörgen, Boston Ballet, Les Grands Ballets Canadiens de Montreal, the National Ballet of Canada, the Royal Winnipeg Ballet and, as of 2011, Ballet Kelowna. I enjoyed watching the young dancers who are all at the beginning of their careers with so much promise. The dance event was well attended with over three quarters of the seats taken.

For those planning to attend, I highly recommend going early at 5 p.m. so that you can enjoy supper at the Three Ravens Restaurant and Wine Bar. If you have tickets to the dance performance, you will receive a 20% discount. Not only is the food fantastic, but the views are gorgeous too. Then, after your meal, you should arrive at the Harvie Theatre by 6:45 p.m. so that you attend the pre-performance chat. On Wednesday, Lindsay Fischer, program director, gave an entertaining, informative, and helpful discussion. The dance performances start at 7:30 p.m. and finish at about 10:00 p.m. Please note that on Saturday, the performances start in the afternoon, so you will have to adjust the times.

I will quickly provide the titles of the five ballets along with the dancers. The dancers on Wednesday will repeat again on Friday. And those dancing tonight, Thursday, will repeat again on Saturday.

Allegro Brilliante (1956)
Miyoko Koyasu, Trevor Felixbrod

Cristina Graziano, Daniel Da Silva,
Maria Alvarez, Thiago dos Santos,
Emilia Cadorin, James Applewhite,
Helen Clare Kinney, Connor Gnam

Uprooted (2011)
Alexander Burton, Paul Calderone,
Esabelle Chen, Livona Ellis, Hannah Fischer,
Taylor Gill, Connor Gnam, Cristina Graziano,
Garrett Groat, Raelynn Heppell, Kate Houston,
Harrison James, Peter Starr

Intermission

Nocturne
Pas De Deux From The Dream
Hannah Fischer, Nicolas Pelletier

Sonate No. 5 (1970)
Pas De Deux
Larissa Khotchenkova, Harrison James

Intermission

Hold Me, Neighbor, In This Storm
Alexander Burton, Livona Ellis

Esabelle Chen, Trevor Felixbrod,
Connor Gnam, Cristina Graziano,
Garret Groat, Miyoko Koyasu,
Chenxin Liu, Nayara Lopes,
Thiago dos Santos, Peter Starr

On Wednesday, 20 July 2011, I photographed a view from Three Ravens Restaurant and Wine Bar and a view from within the Three Ravens Restaurant and Wine Bar at the Banff Centre. Because I have no pictures of the ballets, I chose to show pictures of the near and in the restaurant. If you click on my Flickr profile link, you will be taken to Flickr where you can see more of my pictures.

Challenging Investing Environment For Commodities in June 2011

2011-06-30T23:00:00Z

With the commodity volatility, I found June was a challenging month. For the most part, I have left my positions unchanged. That is, I remain with a heavy bias toward commodities.

The release of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve certainly shook up the market. However, I agree with Mark Fisher's view that he expressed 23 June 2011. And here we are a week later, and oil prices are up with West Texas Intermediate and Brent at roughly $95 and $112 respectively.

I am looking forward to earnings season when we will get greater insight as to how companies are performing and their outlooks for future.

For those who are tuning in via RSS or email, you might have to visit my blog to see CNBC's video of Mark Fisher.

Alberta Ballet: Fumbling Towards Ecstasy

2011-05-08T23:00:00Z

For those reading this article via RSS or email, you might not be able to view the YouTube of Sarah McLachlan - Fumbling Towards Ecstasy. If that is the case, please view this blog article at my blog where the YouTube is displayed.

On Thursday, 5 May 2011, I attended Alberta Ballet's production of Fumbling Towards Ecstasy. It was the best live artistic event that I have ever attended.

For those of you in Edmonton who are considering attending, go. Beg, borrow, or steal tickets to attend. And, if you've never attended a ballet before, then you must see Fumbling Towards Ecstasy.

As has been extensively covered in the media, Jean Grand-Maître, artistic director, collaborated with Sarah McLachlan to create Fumbling Towards Ecstasy, Alberta Ballet's third ballet based upon a contemporary music artist. McLachlan's music is ideal for a ballet because, as you become lost in your thoughts listening to her music and reflecting upon your own personal life, she brings you back to a place of innocence, compassion, and hope.

I attended the pre-ballet session at 6:45 pm where there were three gentlemen provided commentary. Unfortunately, I have forgotten the name of one of the individuals. He discussed how McLachlan and Grand-Maître met and began collaborating on the ballet. Next, Pierre Lovoie, resident lighting director, and Adam Larsen, video designer, ping ponged back and forth discussing how they collaborated. While each took their lead from discussions Grand-Maître held with McLachlan, they worked remotely from different locations in North America as team using technology to tie everything together. They used McLachlan's creative inputs in terms of imagery, patterns, textures and colors. Larsen stated that he made the projections deliberately slow so that the audience kept its focus on the dancers and not on the projections. As an example, he contrasted television with its rapidly changing scenes with his projections for this ballet. Lovoie discussed how he and Larsen worked with colors often using complimentary or similar colors. With my interest in photography, I immediately understood their challenges.

After the pre-ballet session, I sat down and looked around the auditorium. Every seat appeared to be occupied and the audience had a special energy. Just prior to the ballet beginning, Grand-Maître and McLachlan made their entrance to a thunderous applause.

Everyone is deeply appreciative of McLachlan's support. Of course, she provided considerable artistic input; however, she also helped promote and raise money for the ballet. She is an amazing and caring individual.

While waiting for the curtain to rise, I spoke to a grandmother sitting next to me. She indicated that she has been attending ballets for about forty years. She further indicated that, although some have criticized Alberta Ballet for its contemporary music ballets, to her, dance was dance. She further commented Grand-Maître has strengthened Alberta Ballet and made it into an outstanding ballet company.

When the ballet began, I understood why McLachlan was so moved when she saw the rehearsals—I was moved. The staging, costumes, lighting and projections were magnificent. And the dancers were beautiful. By watching their faces while they danced, I knew they were excited to be performing. And, although new to ballet, I loved the dancing. For me, it was a fusion of athleticism and art. I loved every minute of last night's performance—beautiful, powerful and moving.

I suspect the ballet held special significance to the dancers because they were dancing to Sarah McLachlan's music, music that is in their iPods. Moreover, they knew of the extraordinary support McLachlan has provided the ballet.

I wish I had the understanding and the technical vocabulary to express how much I appreciated the dancers and their dancing. As I watched, I was awed by their strength, stamina, and flexibility. Their movements appeared effortless, graceful, and beautiful. Having felt viscerally moved, I now understand why people enjoy watching ballet.

Since I am unable to provide a strong technical review, I will provide links to three online newspaper reviews:

Fumbling Towards Ecstasy: Sarah McLachlan ballet a sight to behold (Bob Clark, Calgary Herald);
Sarah McLachlan ballet shimmers in beauty (Paula Citron, The Globe and Mail); and
Ballet Review: The Alberta Ballet's Fumbling Towards Ecstacy (Jessica deMello, The National Post).

As a newcomer to ballet, I will provide my quick thoughts on their reviews.

The Calgary Herald continues to be a strong supporter of Alberta Ballet. For the most part, I agree with Clark's well written commentary. However, I have a different interpretation on the repetitive dancing.

Only in some of the bigger ensembles, such as in Building a Mystery, does the dance disappoint. The movement of the large groups seems repetitive, almost decorative in effect. The dancers move back and forth across the stage -- twirling, leaping or carrying the women in frozen classical poses -- like figures in some ancient frieze.

Larsen spoke earlier of the need to make the projections slow, and the dancers in a frozen classical poses reinforced that slow moving motion. In fact, had the dancers been moving fast, I would not have appreciated that part of the dance as much. Furthermore, through McLachlan's music, the ballet was in part about reflecting and interpreting life. And in life, there are many repeating patterns. Even though my interpretation is different from Clark's, I want to emphasize that everyone who sees the ballet will interpret it differently.

My last comment concerns Clark's overall strong rating of four of five stars. My rating is even higher. As I wrote at the very outset, Fumbling Towards Ecstasy is the best live artistic performance I have ever attended.

Next, I enjoyed reading Citron's review. My only remark is to echo my comment about the repetitive dancing. I interpreted the dancing differently.

And last, I disagree with deMello's review.

For many seat-holders on opening night, though, it was McLachlan herself and not Alberta Ballet's artistic risk-taking that brought them here. Before the curtain rose, Grande-Maitre and McLachlan walked up the theatre aisle to take their seats, prompting a standing ovation. And not until the second act did a clear transition between McLachlan's top 40 hits begin to emerge: love, tragedy, grieving, growing old and celebrating life.

...

For the majority of seat-holders on opening night, it is McLachlan herself and not Alberta Ballet's artistic risk-taking that brought them here. She emerges from a long white limousine, arm-in-arm with Grand-Maitre, and the crowd explodes into applause. People throng forward to watch them walk a short red carpet, knocking over velvet rope and snapping photos with their mobile phones. She is wearing a dress by Calgary-based designer Paul Hardy, who created the 98 unique and stunningly beautiful costumes for this ballet. Before the curtain rises, Grande-Maitre and McLachlan walk up the theatre aisle to take their seats, prompted a standing ovation before the show had even begun.

Where she came up with that wild assertion that the majority of seat-holders came to see McLachlan herself and not Alberta Ballet is beyond comprehension. She says it not once, but twice for added emphasis, I suppose. No one surveyed those near me as to why we came to the ballet. How will she explain the near- or sold-out performances in Edmonton when McLachlan might not be present?

Moreover, the National misspelled the title of the ballet in its title of the review.

Switching away from the online reviews, I was surprised how fast the time flew by. It seemed as though the curtain had just gone up when the intermission hit. And the final curtain seemed to come much too soon. I wish my experience that evening were like a CD where I could just hit play and start all over again. I encourage everyone to see Fumbling Towards Ecstasy. I loved every minute of it.

For my benefit, below are the artists who performed on Thursday evening.

Overture
Clara Stripe

Hold On #1
Clara Stripe
with Artists of Alberta Ballet

Ben's Song
Clara Stripe
with Artists of Alberta Ballet

Drawn to the Rythym
Noëllie Conjeaud
accompanied by ...
Melissa Boniface
Nicole Caron
Alison Dubsky
Asaka Homma

Fumbling Towards Ecstasy
Noëllie Conjeaud
with Artists of Alberta Ballet

Bring on the Wonder
Mariko Kondo & Mark Biocca

Vox
Mariko Kondo & Mark Biocca
with Artists of Alberta Ballet

Ice
Mariko Kondo & Mark Biocca
accompanied by ...
Emily Collier
Victoria Lane Green
Tara Williamson

Into the Fire
Hayna Gutierrez
accompanied by ...
Melissa Boniface
Nicole Caron
Alison Dubsky
Asaka Homma

Illusions of Bliss
Hayna Gutierrez
with Artists of Alberta Ballet

Illusions of Bliss (Piano)
Galien Johnston & Kelley McKinlay
with Artists of Alberta Ballet

Hold On #2
Galien Johnston & Kelley McKinlay
accompanied by ...
Patrick Doe
Davidson Jaconello
Blair Puente

Good Enough
Galien Johnston
with Artists of Alberta Ballet

Buiding a Mystery
Galien Johnston
with Artists of Alberta Ballet

Mary
Beverly Bagg & Blair Puente
with Artists of Alberta Ballet

Ice Cream
Ice Cream Cone
Melissa Boniface
with Artists of Alberta Ballet

Angel
Nicole Caron & Davidson Jaconello
accompanied by ...
Alexandra Gibson & Anthony Pina
Jennifer Gibson & Mark Wax
Alexandra Pera & Garret Groat

Looking Forward To Summer 2011

2011-05-01T01:00:00Z

Because I have been too busy this past while, I have not kept my blog current. So this post is just a brief update.

I am looking forward to summer. Here in Calgary, we have enjoyed a long winter and cool spring with temperatures much below the seasonal norms. In fact, there is still significant amounts of snow on the ground. Consequently, I have not been outside nearly as much as I would like.

Once summer arrives, I look forward to getting out and biking around the city, hiking in the mountains, and taking pictures. I hope that once I have new pictures to share, I will be posting more often.

I hope everyone has survived their winters and is already enjoying their summers.

Alberta Ballet: Serenade & Vigil of Angels

2011-03-29T13:00:00Z

For those reading this article via RSS or email, you might not be able to view Steve Jobs's 2005 Stanford Commencement Address. If that is the case, please read view this blog article at my blog where the YouTube is displayed.

On Thursday, 24 March 2011, I attended Alberta Ballet's production of Serenade and Vigil of Angels. I thoroughly enjoyed both ballets, the first that I have ever attended.

At 6:45 pm, Jean Grand-Maître, artistic director, along with two elegant and attractive women Elyse Borne and Flavia Vallone began a half hour introduction to the two ballets. By just observing how Borne and Vallone carried themselves, I knew they were dancers and would have valuable insights to share.

Borne, who is responsible for staging Serenade for the George Balanchine Trust, provided her background and discussed her time working with George Balanchine. Through her discussions, I got a sense of the history of Serenade and her excitement and joy of working with Balanchine. She spoke of how Serenade evolved from Balachine's lessons and from some of the student's mistakes.

For those of you, like me, who know absolutely nothing about ballet, George Balanchine (1904-1983) is regarded as the foremost contemporary choreographer of ballet. Please see my earlier Wikipedia link for more information.

Vallone is from La Scala in Milan where she is a first soloist. Grand-Maître discussed that of the many dancers he has had pleasure of working with, only a select few were true muses, and Flavia Vallone is one. He instinctively knew when he first saw her that she would dance the lead role in Vigil of Angels when it opened in La Scala in 1995.

This ballet is more somber, more thoughtful as it concerns itself with how we learn to accept the inevitably of death. Grand-Maître mentioned that he created this ballet during the mid 1990s when many of his friends and colleagues were dying from AIDS. Vallone recounted her experiences with the ballet.

As I watched the two dancers reflect back on their careers, I enjoyed watching their reactions to each other. Through their sympathetic gestures, it was obvious that each understood the other's experiences. They share a common bond, an understanding and appreciation, that transcends what is able to be communicated to and understood by those of us who are non-dancers.

Through the discussions of Grand-Maître, Borne and Vallone, my most important learning was just to enjoy the beauty of the ballet. Grand-Maître encouraged the audience to superimpose our own life experiences onto the ballets because there was no definitive or correct interpretations. He further commented that these ballets are meant to soothe the soul, especially in these turbulent and troubling times. And Grand-Maître made one last remark where he quoted Balanchine's comment, "See the music, hear the dance."

I loved Serenade. There is so much to appreciate with the dance patterns and technical pointe work. The cool blues dresses together with the dancers' light movement created stunning imagery. I was amazed at watching how effortless the dancers moved through their dance. Of course, the easier it looks likely implies that it is extraordinarily difficult to achieve.

For those wanting or looking for a technical review of how the dancers performed Serenade, I am unable to provide such commentary. I can only comment that I enjoyed the whole visual imagery. While I enjoyed absorbing the beautiful movements, I am sure that I missed many of the finer points—pun intended. In fact, I would love to see this ballet several more times, for I am sure I would appreciate each new viewing more than the last.

Vigil of Angels was a more cerebral or thoughtful ballet. Having heard Grand-Maître's earlier description of his ballet and why it was created, I was able to understand the ballet. And as he mentioned, we could use our own life stories and imagination to shape our interpretation.

The interesting and beautiful backdrops and staging complemented the dancers graceful and effortless movements. I am still amazed by their dancing.

For those wanting another review, I recommend Bob Clark's Calgary Herald article Passage of time only enriches two great works.

Switching topics, you might be curious as to why I have an interest in ballet. Joe McNally piqued my initial interest when he showed his pictures of dancers in his blog Joe McNally Photography and his books The Moment It Clicks: Photography secrets from one of the world's top shooters and The Hot Shoe Diaries: Big Light from Small Flashes. While I cannot put into words what I enjoyed about his ballet photographs, I know that I enjoy them. And that began my interest in learning more about ballet.

Below are some links from his blog where he showed some of his ballet photographs:

In addition to Joe McNally's photographs, I have begun reading Jennifer Homans's Apollo's Angels: A History of Ballet. If you have any interest at all in ballet, I recommend New York Times Book Review: 10 Best Books Apollo's Angels. I had expected a historical book on ballet to be rather dry with factual details. Instead, Homans wrote a wonderfully crafted book that drips with rich detail about the fascinating history of ballet. Rather than try to provide an adequate book review here, I urge to read some of the more eloquent and informed reviews by other readers on Amazon.

A friend who is a female adult ballet student shares her knowledge, enthusiasm, and passion with me. Whenever I have a question, she provides her thoughts and usually directs me to other resources as well, including two online forums: Ballet Talk for Dancers and Ballet Talk.The former forum is directed to those who participate in ballet as dancers or students while the latter is directed to those of us with an interest in ballet.

To enjoy ballet, you don't need to be schooled or proficient in the technical aspects of ballet, just as you don't need to read music to listen to your favorite songs. If you have knowledge of ballet, however, I expect you are able to gain a deeper appreciation of the art form. As mentioned, I would love to see Serenade several times because with each viewing, I am sure that I would learn and appreciate the ballet more. As with anything new, I need to seek several sources to deepen my understanding and appreciation.

Throughout all my learning, perhaps what impresses me most are the dancers themselves. They dance for the pure enjoyment and love of dancing. They don't dance for fame or fortune, because most will never know either. And, although ballet is not a sport, dancers are supreme athletes. Their training is difficult, challenging, and, at times, painful. So when I watched the dancers perform, I appreciated them for their dedication and passion of pursuing a their art form. I admire those who can put aside the usual monetary rewards to pursue a career they love.

Now, you are probably wondering why I have Steve Jobs's 2005 Stanford Commencement Address at the top of this blog article. There are two reasons: first, as much as I wish I had, I do not have any photographs of dancers to share with you; and second, there are parallels with Jobs's address and ballet.

By discussing his rise from humble beginnings to his present role of chief executive officer of Apple Inc. Jobs mentioned three key themes: first, Connecting the Dots; second, Love and Loss; and third, Death. His life has been and continues to be an unimaginable journey. Ballets often reflect unimaginable and complicated journeys. In Connecting the Dots Jobs talked about following your heart and doing what you believe. Ballet dancers embody that very attribute. Love and Loss is something that we can all identify with in our lives. And, it is often a main theme in ballets. Similarly, Death is another common and shared experience. As discussed, a main theme in Vigil of Angels is death.

I want to elaborate further where Jobs, in his Connecting the Dots discussion, talked about his interest in and passion for calligraphy. He spoke how, at the time, there was no apparent purpose for his interest. Yet, as we saw, his interest in and passion for calligraphy provided Apple and the rest of personal computing universe with beautiful typography, something we take for granted. Similarly, while some might think that watching ballet has no purpose, I argue that it does. First, ballet allows us to reflect on our lives. Through their movements, dancers are able to portray events and emotions that help us question and understand our own lives on our own terms. Second, watching ballet dancers perform is good for the soul. There is something magical about their movements. And third, it is good to help, support, and appreciate those have chosen to pursue their creative passions. Jobs's comments about calligraphy resonated with me because my reasons for interest in ballet are similar to his interests in calligraphy—they are both beautiful and graceful.

Now you know why I am interested in learning more about ballet. Because it is a beautiful art form, I wish I had been more curious about and open to ballet when I was younger.

By the time my article is posted on my blog, it will be too late to encourage those of you in Calgary to see the ballets. However, those of you in Edmonton, I encourage you. And as new person to ballet, I believe these two ballets are wonderful starting places because you are able to use your own life experiences to create your own impressions. So, if you have the opportunity to attend, I urge you to see the ballets.

Stay hungry, Stay foolish.

For my benefit, below are the artists who performed on Thursday evening.

Alberta Ballet: Serenade
Waltz Girl	Victoria Lane Green
Waltz Boy	Patrick Doe
Russian Girl	Nicole Caron
Dark Angel	Galien Johnston
Elegie Boy	Kelley McKinlay
Four Russian Girls	Noëllie Conjeaud
	Alison Dubsky
	Mariko Kondo
	Tara Williamson

Corps de Ballet	Skye Balfour-Ducharme
	Reilley Bell
	Melissa Boniface
	Natalie Chui^*
	Emily Collier
	Alexandra Gibson
	Gillian Hogg^*
	Asaka Homma
	Kanae Muta^*
	Miyuki Ohta^*
	Alexandra Pera
	Sarah de Vries
	Anthony Pina
	Blair Puente
	Sébastien Riou
	Peter Starr

The asterisks represent those artists who are students of the School of Alberta Ballet.

Alberta Ballet: Vigil of Angels
The Poet	Kelly McKinlay
The Cellist	Hayna Gutierrez
Lead Angel	Mark Wax
Death	Clara Stripe

Angels	Melissa Boniface
	Nicole Caron
	Emily Collier
	Mariko Kondo
	Tara Williamson
	Yukichi Hattori
	Davidson Jaconello
	Anthony Pina
	Blair Puente
	Peter Starr

ExxonMobil Fourth Quarter 2010 Conference Call

2011-02-08T02:00:00Z

When I discussed the third quarter results for Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM), I was bullish on ExxonMobil. My summary comments were as follows:

Given the current outlook for continued high oil prices as evidenced by the futures curve, reasonable refining and chemical margins, a strong pipeline of new and exciting projects with solid returns, I look favorably upon ExxonMobil. Then, if I consider the analysts' forecasts for 2010 and 2011 and use Friday's closing price of $66.40, I see that the 2010 p/e ratio is about 11.5 and the 2011 p/e ratio is 10.6. While I still regard $55 as a floor price, providing the current macro environment remains, I regard $60 as low price. At $60, ExxonMobil stock would trade at less than a 2011 p/e of 10. And, as I indicated in my second quarter review, I view $80 as being a high or rich price.

In light of the rapid rise of the stock price, my near term bullishness is tempered somewhat. The near term will be governed by the success of Quantitative Easing 2 (QE2), investors' reaction to the elections, and fund managers' race for performance into yearend. Short term investors will need to continue monitoring developments and adjust accordingly. Longer term investors should enjoy solid returns.

On Monday, 06 February 2011, ExxonMobil's stock price closed at $83.93, up $17.53 or about 26.4% since my prior comments. The last few months have been good to those invested in oil and gas companies, and especially good to ExxonMobil investors.

I will provide my summary information for ExxonMobil's fourth quarter conference call held on Monday, 31 January 2011. While preparing my comments, I relied upon ExxonMobil materials from their web site and Seeking Alpha's transcript. I encourage readers download ExxonMobil's slide presentation (PDF, ~700kb), because I will be referring to those slides in my discussion below.

ExxonMobil Press Release

Earnings were $9,250 million, an increase of 53% or $3,200 million from the fourth quarter of 2009.
Earnings per share were $1.85, an increase of 46%.
Capital and exploration expenditures were $10.1 billion, up 22% from the fourth quarter of 2009.
Oil-equivalent production increased 19% from the fourth quarter of 2009. Excluding the impacts of entitlement volumes, OPEC quota effects and divestments, production was up 18%.
Cash flow from operations and asset sales was $14.7 billion, including asset sales of $1.7 billion.
83 million shares of its common stock were purchased at a gross cost of $5.8 billion. The average price was approximately $69.88. Of the $5.8 billion, $5 billion were spent to reduce the number of shares outstanding.
Share purchases to reduce shares outstanding are currently anticipated to equal $5 billion in the first quarter of 2011. Purchases may be made in both the open market and through negotiated transactions, and may be increased, decreased or discontinued at any time without prior notice.
Dividends per share of $0.44 increased by 5% compared to the fourth quarter of 2009.
A joint venture agreement was signed with Qatar Petroleum to progress the Barzan Project. The project is expected to supply 1.4 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas with first gas planned for 2014.
Fayetteville shale assets of Petrohawk Energy were acquired, including 150 thousand net acres and 95 million cubic feet per day of net production, providing an attractive addition to XTO's existing position in the Fayetteville trend.
Expansion of the carbon dioxide capture plant at our LaBarge facility in Wyoming was completed. The expansion increases the amount of carbon dioxide captured by the plant by 50%. The facility is now capable of capturing, in one day, a carbon dioxide volume equivalent to the emissions of 1.5 million cars.

ExxonMobil Conference Call - Presentation

Slide 3

Straightforward comments on the world economy, oil and natural gas prices.
Although most profit drivers are positive, increased industry capacity has decreased chemical margins.

Slide 4

Fourth quarter financial highlights have been discussed.
The $7.2 billion of shareholder distributions includes $5.8 billion in share purchases, of which $5 billion were used to reduce shares outstanding. The Company expects to reduce spend another $5 billion to reduce shares outstanding in the first quarter of 2011.
CAPEX is $10.1 billion.
Although I am mixing accounting earnings with cash flows, it is interesting to note that shareholder distributions plus CAPEX exceeded by a wide margin the quarterly earnings.

Slide 5

Slide 5 contains annual data as opposed quarterly data in the prior slide.
The large CAPEX value is largely attributable to the XTO merger as well as continued progress on the Kearl Lake Oil Sands project in Alberta.
Cash flow of $51 billion remains strong.

Slide 6

Slide 6 shows the bridging in earnings between 4Q 2009 and 4Q 2010
U/S - upstream; D/D - downstream; Chem - chemicals; C&F - corporate and financing.
Financing activities were up $190 over the same period last year.

Slide 7

Slide 7 has the same format and information as prior slide, except 4Q versus 3Q.

Slide 8

Slide 8 has the same format and information as the prior two slides, except 2010 versus 2009.
We see the largest contributor to earnings growth was the upstream division, although all business lines contributed.
Corporate and financing expenses excluding special items for the full year in 2010 were $2.1 billion, up $340 million from 2009, because of a tax charge related to the U.S. Healthcare Legislation and financing activities.

Slide 9

Slide 9 highlights major project accomplishments in the upstream division with respect to liquids production.

Slide 10

Slide 10 is the same as slide 9, except gas production.

Slide 11

Slide 11 is similar to prior two slides except it focused on unconventional production in North America.
The Company has about 70 rigs across the United States working on unconventional plays.

Slide 12

Side 12 is similar to slide 11, except its focus is international.
Germany, Indonesia, and Argentina are prominent areas ExxonMobil's unconventional portfolio.

Slide 13

Slide 13 outlines the Company's major exploration initiatives.
Gulf of Mexico (GoM), Turkey, Russia and Asia Pacific (Indonesia and Australia) are important areas.

Slide 14

Slide 14 shows earnings for 4Q 2010 versus 4Q 2009.
The majority of increased earnings resulted from higher "realizations" or price. Crude oil price increased $10.84 per barrel while natural gas $0.29 per kcf (thousand cubic feet).
Volume and Mix effects of $560 million were largely attributable to Qatar.
Other including higher operating expenses and unfavorable foreign exchange impacts.

Slide 15

Slide 15 shows the volume growth between 4Q 2010 and 4Q 2009.
The largest contributor to growth was the XTO merger, and the next largest growth driver was the strong performance production in Qatar.

Slide 16

Slide 16 shows the earnings differential between 4Q 2010 and 3Q 2010.
Again, strong oil prices of $9.81 per barrel and stronger gas prices $0.71 per kcf helped the most.

Slide 17

Volumes increased nearly 12% from 3Q 2010 to 4Q 2010 because of stronger seasonal gas demand in Europe.

Slide 18

Slide 18 captures the increased earnings from 2009 to 2010.
Upstream earnings were just over 24 billion, an increase of 7 billion from 2009.
Higher global realizations, most liquids, led to an earnings increase of $6.5 billion. Higher volumes from Qatar added $1.2 billion. Increased operating expenses and unfavorable foreign exchange movements decreased earnings by $690 million.

Slide 19

Slide 19 shows the volumes increase from 2009 to 2010.
Excluding the addition of XTO, volumes increased a robust 6% or 250,000 oil-equivalent barrels per day due to strong project performance in Qatar and strong operational results across our global Upstream portfolio.

Slide 20

Slide 20 moves to the Downstream division with descriptions of its "Best-in-Class" Operations.

Slide 21

Slide 21 emphasizes its World-Class brands.

Slide 22

Downstream earnings were $1.2 billion, up $1.3 billion from the 4Q 2009. Higher margins were the main driver with some assistance from lower operating costs.

Slide 23

Slide 23 shows downstream earnings from comparison 3Q 2010 to 4Q 2010. Better margins were offset by unfavorable foreign exchange and higher maintenance costs.

Slide 24

Slide 24 shows downstream earnings comparison from 2009 to 2010.
Earnings were up $3.6 billion, up $1.8 billion from 2009. As shown, better margins were the largest driver.

Slide 25

Slide 25 shows progress in important chemical projects.

Slide 26

Slide 26 shows chemical earning increase from 4Q 2009 to 4Q 2010.
As shown, the largest driver was improved margins.

Slide 27

Slide 27 is similar to slide 26, except is from 3Q 2010 to 4Q 2010.
As discussed, increased capacity in the chemical industry has reduced margins.

Slide 28

Slide 28 is similar to prior slides except that is shows the growth in earnings from 2009 to 2010.
The improved margins are the largest driver.

Slide 29

Although Downstream and Chemicals are managed separately, ExxonMobil captures integration and optimization benefits.
Again, margins were the largest profit driver.

Slide 30

Slide 30 is a self-evident summary slide.

ExxonMobil Conference Call - Question and Answer

Rather than provide a blow-by-blow account of various analyst questions and Company answers, I will attempt to group the questions. Analysts often ask follow up questions.

XTO Merger

ExxonMobil is pleased with its progress in its XTO merger. Technologies and best practices are being shared. Attrition has remained low. Activity has increased over the year.

XTO contributed $120 million to fourth quarter earnings, and the full year, about $259 million. Of the $120 million, $84 is associated with the hedge and $36 million in the base. In the fourth quarter, production was 520,000 barrels of oil equivalent. Liquids production was 87 kbd while gas production was 2.6 mcfd.

Drop in Effective Tax Rate

The lower effective tax rate is the result of different mix of upstream, downstream, and chemical, as well as a different mix of geographies.

Brazil

ExxonMobil completed its Sabia Well and encountered non-commercial quantities hydrocarbons. Consequently, it was expensed in the fourth quarter. The Company is continuing to analyze data from all three wells that it drilled in the block. Because of the vast amount of data, no further updates are available. However, more updates will be available in future quarters.

Gulf of Mexico

Hadrian-5 well is the Company's most important well. ExxonMobil was just about to start and commence operations when the moratorium started. The Company has submitted a revised permit application and is awaiting its approval. Good progress continues to be made with respect to the marine well containment system.

Asset Sales

An analyst asked if higher commodity prices would drive more asset sales. David Ronsenthal, VP ExxonMobil, responded that asset sales are not driven by commodity prices. Instead, the Company relies upon a disciplined approach where it is willing to sell assets if a buyer places a higher value upon them than does ExxonMobil.

Analysis and Discussion

Please note that you can click through graphs to see larger images.

As we see in the chart above, West Texas Intermediate oil prices have strengthened since my prior comments. Moreover, there is a strong contango curve in the early months.

As we see from the chart, ExxonMobil's stock has shot up since late summer.

Below is a table outlining ExxonMobil's revenue and earnings estimates.

ExxonMobil Revenue and Earnings Estimates
Financial Metric	Current Qtr Mar 11	Next Qtr Jun 11	Current Year Dec 11	Next Year Dec 12
Data Sources	Yahoo Finance 06 February 2011
Revenue Estimates	106.42B	108.29B	452.91B	476.82B
Earnings Estimates	1.77	1.80	7.04	8.08

I will provide a brief quote from Wall Street Journal article Exxon Mobil's Machine Isn't a Spent Force. Please note readers might require a subscription to WSJ to view the article.

Over the past decade, Exxon bought back $174.4 billion of its own common stock, according to Capital IQ, more than Chevron, BP and Royal Dutch Shell combined. Overall, 61% of its operating cash flow went to shareholders as buybacks or dividends, compared with its rivals' average of 41%.

Buybacks usually come out of Exxon's free cash flow, after capital expenditures and dividends. In its last quarter, however, it paid out $18.1 billion in capital expenditures, dividends and buybacks but brought in just $13 billion. This fits with a trend. Since late 2008, Exxon has in effect borrowed to help fund buybacks in most quarters. Operating cash flow collapsed by half in the year after oil prices peaked in mid-2008, but capital expenditures increased by more than half. UBS expects capital expenditures to rise 19% this year.

As demonstrated in the article, ExxonMobil returns significant portions of its operating cash flow back to its shareholders. It maintains a well disciplined approach to running its business.

One of the perceived negatives during the last several quarters was the Company's merger with XTO. Now, the XTO merger is no longer an issue. With the release of its 2010 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030 (PDF, ~8mb) document, the Company has begun to show its longer term strategy regarding natural gas. Below are some quotes from page 29 of the document.

Electricity powers industry, as well as homes, offices, retail stores and critical services such as hospitals. Rising demand for electricity, and the choices of fuels used to generate that electricity, is one of the largest influences on the global energy landscape through 2030.

Global electricity demand will rise by more than 80 percent through 2030 - led by Non OECD nations, where demand will be up more than 150 percent.

...

Growing production of natural gas to fuel advanced power plants will help meet this rising demand. As a clean-burning energy source, natural gas will also help mitigate environmental impacts, as the power-generation sector is the single largest contributor to global energy related CO2 emissions.

...

However, many governments are seeking to limit greenhouse gas emissions by enacting policies that put a cost on CO2 emissions. As CO2 costs go up, economics shift. Coal - which emits far more CO2 than other fuels - becomes less economically attractive.

ExxonMobil anticipates that, by 2020, adoption of these policies will be equivalent to adding CO2 costs of about $30 per ton in the OECD. At this level, natural gas becomes a lower-cost source of electricity than coal, while nuclear and wind become increasingly competitive. This shift becomes even more pronounced if CO2 costs rise to $60 per ton, which is where we anticipate policies in the OECD will drive costs by 2030.

Given the outlook for continued higher commodity prices, I remain bullish on ExxonMobil. As you saw in my prior comments, I was slightly cautious then. Obviously, with the benefit of hindsight, I wish I had been more aggressive. That said, I still performed well.

Now, the stock is up substantially, yet I remain bullish. As we saw in the slide comments, oil and natural gas prices, refining margins, chemical prices all strengthened on a year over year basis. During the recent quarter, chemical margins softened with new industry capacity brought on stream.

As long as the world economy continues to recover, commodity prices should remain firm. With expected higher prices, analysts have raised their revenue and earnings targets. According to Yahoo! Finance (see above chart), analysts expect ExxonMobil to earn $7.04 in 2011. Using a P/E of 12 to 13, we get a stock price of about $84.50 to $91.50.

Almost everyone it seems is expecting, waiting, or hoping for a five to seven percent pullback. Should that pullback happen soon, that might be an attractive entry point if you are not already long ExxonMobil stock. Could the stock go move beyond the $84.50 to $91.50 range? Yes, if commodity prices or margins move, then I expect earnings and stock price to move too. So we need to remain vigilant with respect to the global economic recovery and commodity prices.

Disclosure: Long ExxonMobil stock, long and short puts, for an overall net long position.

On Saturday, 28 June 2010, I photographed Badlands near Drumheller, Alberta. If you click on my Flickr profile link, you will be taken to Flickr where you can see more of my pictures.