While it’s good fodder to fill up the morning zeitgeist every February 2, it’s temporal. People get a chuckle and go on living their lives of quiet desparation.

But why chuckle at the groundhog news story and then bite on the next one?

IRL and online networks are packed with pundits and prognosticators 365 days a year.

What will be the hot ad in the Super Bowl the ‘big’ game™ this Sunday? Who will win the actual game? Who will win the next election? What’s the best bet on your stock IPO?

These prophets and soothsayers appear as experts in their fields offering their own predictions of events. They backing those ideas with forecast models, statistics, and expertise. In reality, they’re all just looking at their own shadow and making their best guess.

Of the 30 or so non-movie brands advertising in Super Bowl, so far 13 have released the spots before the game. adage.com/superbowl

— Ken Wheaton (@kenwheaton) January 31, 2012

…which leads to a simple thought from me:
If you open all your presents the week before Christmas, what are you going to do on Christmas morning?

It’s chock full of Ferris Bueller references (over two dozen, they say). It’s a clever way to incorporate the references using Broderick rather than the Bueller character so that John Hughes just does a partial turn in his grave. I’m saddened there’s not an Abe Froman reference.

But here’s a fun piece of trivia. The Super Bowl the ‘big’ game™ is still a week away. The whole “pre-buzz” idea for Super Bowl the ‘big’ game™ ads is getting out of hand. Pretty soon we’ll start seeing Christmas decorations in October … wait.

There’s also the possibility that your teasers could backfire. The social nets are now full of mal-informed Ferris Bueller fans who thought the Honda teaser was for a sequel to the movie. They are now in attack mode.

What do you think? Has the pre-hoopla outweighed the actual media placement? Is the spot in the game just an afterthought?

While it does seem that “life has moved pretty fast” from the looks of Matthew Broderick, there’s not much more in the teaser that lets us know what this is about. I’m sure in the next few days (hours) the mystery advertiser will be identified (UPDATE: it’s for Honda. Update for Honda: A Honda is not analogous to a Ferrari.) , but for now here are some of my theories for what this could mean.

• Ferrari is reintroducing the 250 GT Spider California to the market
• Abe Froman is introducing a new line of healthy sausages during Super Bowl XLVI.
• Ferris Bueller will break out in a spontaneous versions of “Danke Schoen” and “Twist and Shout” during the Madonna halftime show.
• Ben Stein has bought time warning 2012 presidential candidates of the Hawley-Smoot Tariff Act and voodoo economics.
• Charlie Sheen announces his intentions of marrying Jennifer Grey (winning)
• The CMA (Clarinet Manufacturers Association) wants to promote clarinet lessons
• The sad reality is that it will probably be a Cialis or Viagra spot.

Incredible, one of the worst blog posts of my career and they never doubted it for a second. But what’s your theory (funny or real) on this teaser ad?

Another update: Honda has released the extended cut of the Bueller ad well in advance of Super Bowl the ‘big’ game™.

But, as so often is the case, when business finds a winner they keep going to the well, killing the golden goose, etc.

VW has released a prequel / teaser of their 2012 Super Bowl the ‘big’ game™ effort. Watch it here or embedded below.

It is a clever creative execution. Each time I watch it I notice another detail. Ashamed to admit that I didn’t notice that each of the dogs corresponds to a different Star Wars character until my third viewing. I did get the Vader lab and the greyhound AT-AT immediately. (btw – there’s controversy because VW may have ripped off the greyhound AT-AT idea)

But why serve leftovers? Why center your biggest ad buy of the year on what you did last year which was based on a 35 year old movie?

Encores are nice. But they need to occur right after the show, not at the next performance.

The biggest danger for Volkswagen is that this 2012 ad WILL be successful. And it probably will be considering the reaction from last year and the American public’s insane attachment to canines. The video was uploaded to YouTube on Wednesday and already has over 3 million views and counting.

But VW could be like ‘that guy’ who tells a good joke which gets such a good reaction that he repeats the punchline over and over until no one laughs and it creates an uncomfortable atmosphere.

Volkswagen’s 2013 ad may also be Star Wars centric. I see an Ewok or Jar-Jar centric ad in our future. It won’t be long until they’re just producing a Star Wars parody spot each year with little or nothing to do with … you know … VW vehicles.

It happens alot with Super Bowl the ‘big’ game™ advertising (cavemen, monkeys, burt reynolds, betty white, godaddy girls, etc).

There’s also a huge PR danger that VW has opened themselves up to again with an unintended but sinister connection in these Star Wars spots. Volkswagen was originally founded by a Nazi trade union. George Lucas has said he based the concept and much of the visual imagary of the Empire in Star Wars on Nazi Germany. Volkwagen somewhat avoided mentions of this last year, but someone could make the Nazi connection go viral this year. 

 I may be wrong. (shocking disclaimer: I have been wrong before.) Super Bowl the ‘big’ game™ advertising is a different animal that doesn’t correspond to the normal rules. But I say bask in your victory and then go into another battle.

UPDATE: They should have stuck with the barking dogs. The actual Volkswagen Super Bowl commercial stinks.