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Corrective So Far

Springheel Jack — Fri, 25 May 2012 12:33:00 +0000

I mentioned a couple of days ago that I was looking for a slow rally with deep retracements to signal that the rally is a corrective bounce, and that's certainly what we're seeing so far. The rally is on, and ES has put in both a higher low and high now, but neither was much higher than the previous one. That said we still have a possible W bottom...

Trading Plan for May 25, 2012

Ryan Mallory — Fri, 25 May 2012 11:49:00 +0000

Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): Consumer Sentiment (9:55am)

Premarket Update (Updated 8am eastern):

US futures are mixed/flat ahead of the opening bell.
European markets are trading mixed/flat.
Asian markets were mixed/flat as well.

Technical Outlook (S&P 500):

Another intraday recovery in the S&P to finish in the green for the fourth straight day.
10-day moving average continues to act as resistance for the S&P.
Steep downtrend off of the 5/1 highs was broken yesterday at the close. Not a game changer, as a downtrend that steep, was bound to be broken sooner than later.
Four-day bounce has pushed the S&P towards short-term overbought. Weekly chart we remain oversold.
Volume was notably less yesterday.
Nearest level of resistance for the S&P is at 1340 and then again at 1357.
1294-5 becomes the key support level for the bears to push below. After that we have a support area at 1275.
VIX is still elevated and rests near 22.
30-minute chart shows some consolidation finally, and the potential for a higher-low.
S&P is trading below the 10-day, 20-day and 50-day moving averages.

My Opinions & Trades:

Daily Technical (Elliot Wave)

Andrea Calissano — Fri, 25 May 2012 09:38:00 +0000

As you know, when I don´t have much to add that can justify a modification of the “ideas” that I have been explaining in the previous posts I prefer to write a short update.

Today is one of those days.

There are no reasons to modify may medium-term and short term preferred scenario.

Regarding the short term one I maintain the “idea” that SPX on May 18 has established the wave (A) within a Double Zig Zag which began on April 2.

The Key to Economic Stability in China, Europe, and US.A.

Strawberry Blonde — Fri, 25 May 2012 01:19:00 +0000

As I see things, China has the ability to fix its own problems through its own unified fiscal and monetary approach.
Europe has major problems and does not have a unified fiscal approach that is being actively implemented by all Eurozone countries. Germany will have to backstop and supply monetary support in some fashion if it truly...

Now Short Compuware (CPWR) and 2 Other Short Setups

Ryan Mallory — Thu, 24 May 2012 18:43:00 +0000

It has been a pretty good day today, and quite a change from yesterday, where despite the initial market decline, not a single one of my short positions were working for me (weird, I know). However, today they are all working in textbook fashion. And Signet Jewelers (SIG) which i was down about -2.5% at the close dropped like a rock today off of industry-wide earnings reports that were dismal at best, as a result I was able to sell that position today at $42.44 from $46.33 for a 8.4% gain. I still remain short ATVI, VCRX and JCI. You can see the details on those trades here.

I've also added one new short position in Compuware (CPWR at $9.05. My chart for it is below as well as two other setups.

1,2-3?

Springheel Jack — Thu, 24 May 2012 12:45:00 +0000

Obviously I've been posting a lot of seriously bearish looking long term charts in recent weeks, and I should take a moment just to emphasize that I don't think that it's time yet to buy in a large supply of ammunition and baked beans and head for the high ground in preparation for the end of the world as we know it. What I am saying is that these...

Trading Plan for May 24, 2012

Ryan Mallory — Thu, 24 May 2012 12:35:00 +0000

Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): Durable Goods Orders (8:30am), Jobless Claims (8:30am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am), Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (11am)

Premarket Update (Updated 8am eastern):

US futures are slightly higher ahead of the open.
European markets are trading on average 1.1% higher.
Asian markets were mixed/flat.

Technical Outlook (S&P 500):

Huge reversal yesterday in the market erasing over 1% in losses to finish in the green.
As noted yesterday, gap-downs have the tendency to be most problematic for the bears.
Despite the reversal, the S&P is still below the downtrend off of the 5/1 highs.
S&P is well off of oversold levels.
Additional resistance lies at the price level of 1340.
Downtrend resistance level is at 1313. The 10-day moving average represents continued downside resistance as well.
1294-5 becomes the key support level for the bears to push below. After that we have a support area at 1275.
Volume the last three days has dropped off notably, showing a lack of conviction in the market bounce we saw.
Steep downtrend off of the 5/1 highs still in place - resistance on the downtrend lies at 1320. Break it, and additional buying momentum could come back into the market.
VIX is still elevated and rests above 22.
We have managed to come off of oversold levels in the short-term
30-minute chart shows perfect downtrend in place.
S&P is trading below the 10-day, 20-day and 50-day moving averages.

My Opinions & Trades:

Daily Technical (Elliot Wave)

Andrea Calissano — Thu, 24 May 2012 10:13:00 +0000

We have a short-term tag of war between SPX´s EWP, which is suggesting that price is attempting to carry out a “relief bounce” and the EUR, which has lost the horizontal support at 1.2622 and it is breaching a long-term trend line support in force since the 2000 lows.

As it can be seen in the monthly chart below the next support is located in the area of 1.2460 then there is virgin area until the 0.382 retracement of the entire rally from the October 2000 lows at 1.2128

Home Price Index Spikes to Four-Year High

Strawberry Blonde — Wed, 23 May 2012 15:39:00 +0000

Data released on Wednesday shows that the purchase price of homes backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac spiked to a new four-year high, as shown on the graph below.
We'll see whether this spike represents a turning point on increasing house prices (home price bubble forming?)...one to watch over the months ahead.

In contrast, MBA purchase...

My Apocalypse Charts

Springheel Jack — Wed, 23 May 2012 13:23:00 +0000

I've posted quite a few charts in recent weeks and months that suggest that we could see a very bad 2012 indeed on equities, EEM, MSWORLD and so on, and I jokingly referred to my 'Apocalypse Charts' the other day when chatting to a trader friend. She asked me what I meant, and I replied that they were the various longer term charts suggesting that...