Serenade of Laela Rizky

Cerpen Yogyakarta

2009-03-24T12:29:00.003+07:00

Seminggu lagi aku akan MENIKAH. Tetapi entahlah, hasratku tak terbendung untuk datang ke sebuah kota yang meninggalkan banyak cerita dalam hidupku, Yogyakarta. Aku terpaksa berbohong pada tunanganku, yang kelak seminggu lagi akan menjadi suamiku, mas Ridwan, aku katakan padanya bahwa temanku Lita telah melahirkan anak keduanya dan aku sebagai teman seperjuangan semasa kuliah dulu ingin sekali berkunjung ketempatnya sebelum melabuhkan hati menjadi seorang istri seminggu lagi.

Sempat kutampik ajakan mas Ridwan untuk menemaniku dari Jakarta menuju ke Yogyakarta. Aku tak ingin dia tau alasanku sebenarnya. Akhirnya dengan menempuh kereta bisnis Senja Jaya aku tiba di stasiun Tugu Yogyakarta sore itu. Aku berdiri menyeka peluh setelah hampir 12 jam duduk melihat pemandangan semasa perjalanan tadi, aku melenggang membawa tas ranselku bergegas menuju Malioboro. Senja saat itu sangat berwarna, langit hampir redup ditelan malam yang menyongsong tiba. Semua alasan itu karena Pratama. Pratama Putra Asykar. Seseorang yang 3 tahun yang lalu pernah menjadi sosok yang sangat berarti bagiku, seseorang yang pernah kuharapkan menjadi pangeran berkuda putihku, seseorang yang dulunya aku pernah labuhkan hatiku padanya, hanya pada lelaki seperti dia. Lelaki tanpa ekspresi, pasif dan tanpa kata. Namun aku sangat cinta padanya, hingga kusingkirkan egoku dan logika yang menguasai separuh hidupku. Lelaki yang mengajarkanku untuk tak larut dalam eksentrika gaya ambisiusku selama ini. Sungguh aku banyak belajar padanya.

Kuterawangkan pandanganku dalam dalam melihat Malioboro di waktu ini, semua masih sama seperti waktu lalu, anganku bermanja dengan keresahan yang mulai kurasakan. Ada apa aku? Kenapa ingin mengulang memori yang sudah mengikis tulusnya hati di masa lalu, dengan lelaki di masa lalu, tanpa tau akan berbuat apa selepas ini. Hampir saja aku melangkah pergi, inginku menyusuri sepanjang jalan itu berharap bisa menyusun potongan potongan kecil gambar aku kala itu, saat cinta memabukkanku dan dirinya. Tapi tiba tiba mas Ridwan telepon; bertanya apa aku sudah mendarat dengan selamat di kota itu, berpesan untuk hati hati terhadap apapun disana, meyakinkan aku bahwa cintanya akan selalu menemani kemana aku berlari, berharap aku pun tak akan menodai rasa yang telah dia semaikan padaku. Aku menyanggupi dengan senyum yang sangat merobek hatiku. Oh Tuhan, tolong maafkan aku, aku telah mengkhianati tulusnya rasa yang dimilikinya… tapi, naluriku begitu kuat mengajakku mengunjungi kota ini, ada pesan tanpa suara yang memaksaku untuk segera datang kesini.

Aku telah kalah… akhirnya aku menjejalkan kakiku memulai menyusuri sepanjang jalan malioboro di senja hari. Tuhan, serpihan serpihan kisah masa lalu bersliweran di depan mataku, tiba tiba aku melihat diriku dengan mas Pratama sedang bergandeng tangan menuju toko batik di ujung jalan sana, aku ingat saat itu dia begitu ingin aku menemaninya untuk membeli baju batik sebagai seragam wajib kantornya di hari jumat. Dan aku, terpaksa membolos kuliah soreku demi menuruti apa yang diinginkannya. Sungguh, sesorean itu aku sesak, anganku dipenuhi cerita tentangnya, tapi dimana dia sekarang? Jangan tanya aku, aku tak tau. Sejak keputusan berpisah tercetus dari mulut kami, setelah lelah berkompromi dalam waktu yang sangat lama, aku dan dia, terpisah jarak diantara dua kota, saat dia diterima bekerja di ujung kota Papua dan aku mesti merantau di Jakarta, tak ada kata lagi, tak ada sentuhan lagi, tak ada tawa lagi. Semua hambar dan akhirnya semua harus dipaksa berakhir. Aku, semula merasa biasa saja sampai akhirnya bertemu dengan mas Ridwan, lelaki muda baik hati yang menjadi atasanku, terlibat proyek bersama hingga akhirnya bunga cinta menguasai hari hari kami berdua, aku terlibat cinta dan cerita dengan nya hingga kupikir aku telah berhasil melupakan sosok seorang Pratama yang sangat sangat berbeda dengan mas Ridwan.

Harusnya aku bahagia, kurang apa tunanganku itu, dia sosok penyayang, romantis dan selalu mengutamakan aku dalam kesegala aktivitasnya sehari hari. Sebagai wanita aku merasa dipuja, aku tersanjung dengan cara dia memperlakukanku. Sedangkan Pratama, sosok pendiam tanpa kata, dia bahkan tak pernah tau bagaimana menyampaikan perasaannya, dia tak pernah menyanjungku, tak pernah aku tau apa yang menjadi keingginannya. Tapi dulu, aku pernah sangat tergila gila padanya. Sosok yang berbeda dimensi dengan sosok tunanganku itu. Entahlah, tepat 10 hari menjelang hari H pernikahanku, aku teringat cinta lamaku, tiba tiba aku sangat ingin mengulang memori lama itu sehingga kuputuskan menuju Yogyakarta, berharap rinduku bisa terobati dan aku kelak tak kan memikirkan hal ini setelah hari sackral itu tiba.
Aku menjatuhkan diri di hotel sekitar daerah Malioboro. Melepas penat yang menyiksa raga dan nuraniku…..
To be continued….

A Very Inspiring Story

2009-02-26T15:02:00.001+07:00

Alkisah, beberapa tahun yang silam, seorang pemuda terpelajar dari Surabaya sedang berpergian naik pesawat ke Jakarta. Disampingnya duduk seorang ibu yang sudah berumur. Si pemuda menyapa, dan tak lama mereka terlarut dalam obrolan ringan.

” Ibu, ada acara apa pergi ke Jakarta ?” tanya si pemuda.
“Oh.. saya mau ke Jakarta terus “connecting flight” ke Singapore nengokin anak saya yang ke dua”,jawab ibu itu

” Wouw.. hebat sekali putra ibu” pemuda itu menyahut dan terdiam sejenak. Pemuda itu merenung. Dengan keberanian yang didasari rasa ingin tahu pemuda itu melanjutkan pertanyaannya.

” Kalau saya tidak salah ,anak yang di Singapore tadi , putra yang kedua ya bu??Bagaimana dengan kakak adik-adik nya??

“” Oh ya tentu ” si Ibu bercerita :
“Anak saya yang ketiga seorang dokter di Malang ,
yang keempat kerja di perkebunan di Lampung,
yang kelima menjadi arsitek di Jakarta,
yang keenam menjadi kepala cabang bank di Purwokerto,
yang ke tujuh menjadi Dosen di Semarang.”

“Pemuda tadi diam, hebat ibu ini, bisa mendidik anak-anaknya dengan sangat baik, dari anak kedua sampai ke tujuh.
” Terus bagaimana dengan anak pertama ibu ??

“Sambil menghela napas panjang, ibu itu menjawab,
” anak saya yang pertama menjadi petani di Godean Jogja nak”. Dia menggarap sawahnya sendiri yang tidak terlalu lebar.”

Pemuda itu segera menyahut, “Maaf ya Bu.. kalau ibu agak kecewa ya dengan anak pertama ibu, adik-adiknya berpendidikan tinggi dan sukses di pekerjaannya, sedang dia menjadi petani ???

“Apakah kamu mau tahu jawabannya?? ???? .

Dengan tersenyum ibu itu menjawab” Ooo.. tidak tidak begitu nak…Justru saya sangat bangga dengan anak pertama saya, karena dialah yang membiayai sekolah semua adik-adiknya dari hasil dia bertani”

(ikptkdk.yahoogroups.com)

Serenade of Sufficient Rain

2009-02-25T08:49:00.000+07:00

Sperti biasa...sore hingga malam berganti, hujan masih menguasai separuh bumi jogja ini...
banyak hal yang bisa dirasakan...kedamaian, keresahan, pembauran dan kenyamanan yang luar biasa akan merasuk kedalam diri kita...
seperti biasa juga, akan banyak aktivitas yang tertunda entah karena hujan tiba2 datang atau karena kita tak peka terhadap makna sebenarnya dari hujan itu...
Hujan, bagiku selalu meninggalkan kesan indah meski aku pernah merasakan pahitnya...
hujan, bagiku adalah anugrah terindah pesan untuk para pujangga yang melewatkan harinya untuk mencoba mencinta apa yang dihadapi dan dialami...
Hujan, bagiku ikut merasakan apa yang aku rasakan...
seperti kemaren malam...semalam... hujan menjadi srenade lagu tentang langit yang terlukai...
merasai apa yang aku rasakan...
Hujan....

The Financial Crisis; How Far Could the US Dollar Fall?

2009-02-24T11:57:00.000+07:00

Financial crisis became an important issue in the last semester of 2008 until today because the impact was so wide toward the entire world, especially for a country that caused the reason why the financial crisis was emerged, USA. In USA, there are many impacts because of this problem that is caused from the policy of supreme mortgage, such as so many banking and financial institutions faced collapse and bankruptcy, then the value of dollar decreased fall. Already between summer 2007 and spring 2008 the value of the US dollar declined. Then in the wake of the collapse of Bear Stearns it dropped to 1 Euro = 1.60 USD. Since then the dollar recovered fairly, up to 1.39 for the Euro on the eve of the “crazy week” (September 15-19 of 2008), and nowadays, the morning after Congress’s rejection of Paulson’s plan, it stands at 1.46. The reasons explaining the limited dollar flow are easily stated;

a. Embattled US financial institutions were selling assets in other currencies to repatriate funds they desperately needed, so pushing up the value of the dollar.

b. Second quarter figures for the US economy were less bad than expected (and to some extent surprisingly good) making the US economy look a better place for profits than the Euro zone, where bad news was becoming more common.

c. Also the earlier major dollar devaluation temporarily increased US exports (+13%); giving the US economy a small breathing space as the repatriation of sales revenues induced capital flows into the US dollar zone.

However, not all of this reasons that make the dollar’s reserved run look likely to continue. The asset selling process has already gone quite far. The US economy’s results for the third and fourth quarters of this year are likely to be worse than those for Europe. The export flow has nearly exhausted its potential, and even if the US dollar were to go down sharply again, export flexibility looks like being much smaller than during the second quarter.

Nowadays, the demands on USD have developed. The “crazy week” ended with an extraordinary US dollar injection through central banks and various bailouts commitments, which will push the US budget deficit to previously unseen levels. Even before the recent crisis, the budget for the fiscal year 2009 anticipated a deficit of 439 billion. Now significant amounts must be added to that figure.

a. The cost of the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bailout has probably been underestimated by 100 billion dollars.

b. Even if the FED has funded the largest part of the AIG bailout, the Treasury had to lend money to the FED and from that we can expect another drain of probably 50 billion dollars.

c. The cost of Paulson’s plan, estimated at 700 billion dollars, or a similar one will have a great effect on the US public debt. There are good reasons to think that nobody knows or could know how far it will go. One can probably estimate the amount of bad assets held by banks and insurance companies today, but if the economic situation degrades in coming months, household and enterprise solvency will decline. Debts assessed as “good” today could become “bad” by December or early 2009. For example, consider the consequences of a possible General Motors bankruptcy next spring. This huge and deeply embattled company has issued large amounts of debt and Credit-default Swaps (CDS). If General Motors or a similarly sized industrial company were to go under Chapter 11 protection, it would have a tremendous overall effect on debt quality. The point is that debt quality assessment can’t be done without some forecasts of US economic activity in the months to come. The 700 billion dollar price tag on Paulson’s plan was no more than a political rabbit he pulled out of his hat to get his plan moving. Some people, like former IMF chief economist K. Rogoff, have estimated that the plan would turn out to cost between 1,000 and 2,000 billion dollars. The truth is nobody really knows.

d. So far no one has raised the issue of diminishing US budget incomes. But if economic activity slows seriously in this year’s 4th quarter and remains at a lower level in the first quarter of next year, one can expect federal and local tax income to be significantly lower than planned. Assuming a GDP depression of around -1.5% to 2.0% during the forthcoming winter, the total loss of budget incomes could be in the 80 to 100 billion dollar range.

As we know that the expected of deficit in 2009 is 439 billion dollars, if we want to add the estimation budget for deficit at least we need 930-950 billion dollars more. The total US deficit for the fiscal year 2009 could easily be pushed up to 1,370-1,400 billion dollars or close to 11% of GDP. In here, it means that we need more bailout from government of USA to cover the loss that caused by the impact of financial crisis.

Such estimates, of course, are highly dependent on the impact that the US economy’s performance has on debt (and CDS) quality. If the government introduced a new economic activity-boosting package, the bailout cost could be reduced. However such a package would come at a cost, so I don’t expect the deficit to go much under 1,250 billion dollars in the best-case scenario. But if economic activity decreases faster than expected and with a higher bankruptcy level than planned, then in the worst-case scenario the budget deficit could well reach 1,700 billion US dollars. In any country but USA, such a budget deficit would push down the value of the national currency considerably. However, because of the US economy’s central role in international flows of trade and finance, numbers do not tell the whole story.

Analysis

Based on introduction above, the problem that is faced by US is how to maintain the value of US dollars to be not falling or reducing, it is about how to take care the it value to be more stable after financial crisis has hit its country. US dollar is primary capital assets for sovereign and private funds in Asia, the Middle-East and Russia. These funds currently hold large quantities of US Treasuries and Agencies (the GSE issued bonds also known as A-bonds). Some of these countries are also important exporters to US internal markets. The financial and real economic relations are interlinked in a complex way that makes it impossible to estimate the outcome the current crisis on the basis of numbers alone.

There are several ways to maintain the currency of US dollar not having too much falling and to preserve its value to be stable; first, focusing in Asia countries trade interest. If the currency value of US dollar decreasing sharply compare to the value of Yen and other Asia’s currency, it will give impact to their international trade especially for competitive boundary of these countries will be reduced significantly. However, to repair its condition does not need just weekly or monthly, it needs more time to process. Therefore, to keep US dollars not too falling, countries with large trade surpluses must buy large quantities of US T-bonds and A-bonds.

The second strategy is they have to raise the issue of the dollar’s role as a capital asset. Private and sovereign funds holding large quantities of US Treasuries and Agencies would suffer a significant capital loss if the USD faces fallen significantly. One could argue that to prevent further losses fund managers will increase their portfolio diversification and reduce their exposure to the USD risk.

Then for third strategies are involving in political thing. As we know that people are confident in US bonds because of the USA’s political leverage. There is no country could directly challenge US power. However, US power has been globally eroded from the 1998 crisis up to the present one to such a level that US leadership looks weak and very unstable. By that reason, US should manage well the confidence in the US debt because actually US faced condition of lack confidence in US debt. The spread on CDS for Treasuries in the wake of the “crazy week” suggest that this lack is on the increase among financial actors.

In here, when financial crisis came, US also features crisis in internal leadership: the very bad crisis management so far, the high uncertainty level about the bank bailout cost, and now when, how and if a bailout will take place. As explained in a previous article, fluctuation in the US administration, and now in its legislature, about a bank bailout has eroded confidence in the nation’s ability to manage a major crisis. Nor did the way the FED chairman presented the case about Lehman Brothers at the September 23rd US Senate Hearings foster confidence. The forthcoming Presidential election is also adding to the uncertainties, be they real or not.

By implementing those three kinds of strategies to prevent the currency value of US dollar not to fall very low after impact of financial crisis, it still bring uncertainty about the financial condition for US in the future. Financial community expectations could be so strictly upset that we could see a massive process of expectation difference. If so, the possibility of a run against the USD can’t be released. The USD could then fall very low definitely and even a huge interest rate rise by the FED would be hard pushed to stop the process without completely destroying what is left of the US financial system.

Conclusion

Considering the explanation that is stated in the introduction and problem analysis, we know that the biggest issues that already hit surround the world is financial crisis that comes from the effect of supreme mortgage. Its impact is very largely toward the financial of US as a pioneer of the publishing of it’s caused, especially the impact for the currency value of US dollar (USD). Time to time, we faced the fact that the currency US dollar fallen down. This condition is not good for financial activities in particular for International trade because actually the biggest activities in US is export import so that the currency value of USD has strongly influence toward economic condition in there.

There will so many predictions about how falls the value of USD falling. It is very hard for answering this question. There is no hesitation that the USD will go down relative to the Euro and the Yen. It is highly probable we will see a 5% to 10% fall in the value of the USD in forthcoming weeks (somewhere like US 1.55 to 1.62 for 1 Euro), coupled to an inversely correlated rise in the price of oil. The USD fall could be greater against the Yen and Asian currencies than against the Euro (maybe 1 JPY = 0.0115/0.0120 USD).

It condition is common situation. In here, US government should take many actions to overcome and at least to stabilize the stable currency for value of USD. They hope can do this effort with stabilizing at this new level for some months before beginning to slowly move up probably by spring or early summer 2009, or will a catastrophic chain of events take place creating the psychological context for an uncontrolled decline in the value to the US dollar.

There are so many uncertainties in particular of the US economy condition will be determined by next spring and when the Euro Zone economy is expected to be at its worst. The USD value could then begin to increase slightly. However, as interest rates will still be low, and the budget deficit a major issue, the USD will not in 2009 regain its average 2007 value, let us say stabilization at USD 1.40 for 1 Euro by the end of 2009. Its condition will be tragedy a large share of the European industry.

The strategies that are should be taken by US government are focusing in Asia countries trade interest, then they also have to raise the issue of the dollar’s role as a capital asset because of private and sovereign funds holding large quantities of US Treasuries and Agencies would suffer a significant capital loss if the USD faces fallen significantly, and for the last is US should manage well the confidence in the US debt because actually US faced condition of lack confidence in US debt because the spread on CDS for Treasuries in the wake of the “crazy week” suggest that this lack is on the increase among financial actors. US should handle the feeling of uncertainty about US leadership and its ability to manage the current crisis comes to out-weigh its feeling of confidence, leading them to arrange of their USD assets, then sovereign funds would have to follow quickly to prevent huge capital losses.

With doing these three strategies, hopefully it can take care and maintain the currency value of dollars not to fall down because the impact of financial crisis. In the early semester of 2009, US should increase the international trade to keep its currency, not just depend on the bailout from their government to stable its economic condition.

Reference

· Sapir, Jacques, (2008). “The financial crisis; how far could the US dollar fall?” Real World Economics Review. issue no. 47, 3 October 2008, pp. 232-236

Behind the Song "Aku Tak Bisa- the Flow"

2009-02-24T11:56:00.000+07:00

"Aku tak bisa lepaskan mu

dari mata ku
aku tak bisa membunuh mu
dan aku tak bisa bohongi
diriku butuh kamu
aku tak bisa melupakan mu

mencoba lupakan
semua yang terjadi
namun ku semakin tersiksa sendiri

mencoba akhiri
perasaan yang ada
namun diri mu semakin mendekati ku

tlah ku coba
melupakan diri mu
namun hanya kau yang selalu
ada di hati ku

houu hoouuuuo

mencoba lupakan
semua yang terjadi
namun ku semakin tersiksa sendiri

mencoba akhiri
perasaan yang ada
namun diri mu semakin mendekati ku"

i do really like this song… it is romantic song…i don't know the exactly the reason why i admire its song, maybe because it is suitable for my condition now and then its voice typical is similar with my voice so based on them, i do like and really like to sing it even just hearing in radio, but finally i found it…alhamdulilah…
OK, back to the story.

i like the words of its song.. it is like the effort of someone to forget lot of moment that they share together, it is like the possibility to refuse the others just to keep its special person for entering his or her life.. i do believe that there are no perfect things in the world but I'm sure that we have to find the very best thin in our life. consider this song, i conclude that forgetting someone is very hard way, very difficult problems…i do felt that experience… forgetting someone made me cry every nite but i kept my survive..

based this song remind that don't love someone too much because with loving too much maybe will make us be hurt too much, balance with what we feel for it. don't share our dignity to love very abundant, if someday that we don't know exactly what will happen, we cant guarantee our feeling is still similar to be felt by him or it will be fade away…
we just keep our love, our heart just for one person who will be our serious but don't hope to much to avoid the risk of hurt…

so pliz…keep our heart, our dignity, our feeling, our pleasant, our emotion in the flat rate, dont make them being unstable condition… just waiting for lucky day that will guarantee our life will be as our follow…
Cayo….Cipirilly (it is contamined by some experiences)

Serenade of Laela Rizky

2009-02-23T15:07:00.000+07:00

the power of Long Distance....
Long distance, when the first time i ever heard about this words, i felt so doubt, can people do this relationship? someone that we are lowing keeps cool in other place that we know it is very faraway, even it is spread a thousand kilometers from place that we stand up. however, i did it. i felt the experience about this relationship. Anyway, even sometimes, i faced a very2 strong feeling that admit for missing him, but i can do nothing. just send sms or calling him. unfortunately, now i am busy girl and so does him. he works in the long distance place. sometimes, misunderstanding is emerged between us. and i can’t avoid it. i have to take care my heart, like my promises with him.. to take care our heart. hopefully becoz of this promises, Allah will design our relationship become more beautiful…. Amin…