Holly Mackenzie recently wrote a piece about Vince Carter and Raptor fans with the basic premise [...]]]> Over on the website that I haven’t let go to hell I led myself on a Vince Carter related tangent.  Said tangent birthed after reading Holly MacKenzie’s “We should probably just let it go…” piece yesterday.  I disagreed.  Here it is:

Holly Mackenzie recently wrote a piece about Vince Carter and Raptor fans with the basic premise being, it’s time to let bygones be bygones.  Holly, please imagine the following scenario: A stranger approaches you on the street and asks you for five bucks.  After an initial decline, this individual pleads and persists; they detail the stinging effects of a global recession, coupled with mounting legal costs stemming from an unfortunate car accident they’re being forced to defend in court.  After some consideration you dig into your pockets and find a five-spot.  After accepting your charity this person – without any type of identifiable provocation – kicks you in the shin as hard as humanly possible.  While you’re on the ground in stunned disbelief, they show you a Hermes wallet stuffed with several hundred dollars. Then they take your five-dollar bill and use it to buy cigarettes for a teenager.

Some people aren’t worth forgiving.  Ask any Red Sox fan how they feel about the standing ovation they gave Clemens in Fenway during the tail end of his first run with Yankees.  Vince Carter is a morally bankrupt, narcissistic, detached dinkweed.  I will never forgive him.  Ever.

End –

Just a few more things:

• I successfully convinced a friend of mine that the Lebron James should sign with the Lakers.
• I successfully convinced the same friend that the Raptors should sign Iverson.  At some point in the next two weeks, I’ll unfold each of these.  Promise.  Mostly.

When [...]]]> I’m going to follow the Raptors a little differently this year.  Different how?

• I’m in California.  That’s different.
• I have no access to local television coverage.  Refreshingly different.
• I’ve stopped following sports almost entirely  outside of, wait for it… actually watching the games.  That’s a 180 degree switch from Toronto, where I was constantly reading and barely watching.

When I was scanning Twitter this afternoon and saw that the Maple Leafs were starting someone in goal that sounds like a sitcom character from the early 90’s I wandered over to the Toronto Star for a closer look.  Habitually, I clicked on the Basketball section when I was finished and brought up Doug Smith’s latest piece on Chris Bosh.

(Keep in mind…  I haven’t so much as sniffed an article on the Raptors since last season.  Going into the first game of the season I will not know the starting lineup until it’s announced on the broadcast.)

Chris Bosh is a guy in transition.  20 pounds of muscle.  Different demeanor.  Tough.  Ornery.

The article was a blast to read because it reminded me of a piece I read when I scanned the Sports Illustrated vault (fun website) a couple of months ago.  It’s an article called Appreciating Bonds by Jeff Pearlman.  Some years later, Mr. Pearlman wrote a book called Love me, hate me: Barry Bonds and the making of an antihero.

The first article is genuinely jaw-dropping to read after the fact.  You could make the argument that it’s the right up there with Rick Reilly’s love letter to Mark McGwire as the most ridiculous steroid era sports articles.

So how does that relate to Doug Smith’s article?

Chris Bosh, going into his seventh season, puts on 20 pounds of muscle.  Really?  And all we get is lighthearted analysis of how this will effect his quickness?  How about the following questions:

• Could you please, in detail, explain your workout regimen and diet?
• Why did it take six full years as a professional for you to start lifting weights?  Or, if  you lifted weights before, why didn’t we see such noticeable results?
• Do you think PED use is common amongst NBA Players?
• Did you use PED’s this off season to change your body?
• Do you intend to change the photo on your Facebook Fan Page from a shirtless pic anytime in the immediate future?

I’m not actually kidding.  Even about the last question.  (Please change the photo.)

In 2009, nobody is above suspicion.  Right?

So, please…  Would one of the Raptor beat reporters nut up and ask Chris Bosh what he puts in his body?

Thanks.

(Oh…  On the off chance this subject has been covered – again, this is the first Raps article I’ve laid eyes on…  Sorry.)

Still posting on Prelude to a Big Break (almost) everyday.

Stay tuned.

Searching for ‘93 isn’t finished, but I’ll be posting less frequently until basketball starts.  There are a couple of reasons:

My buddy sent this to me.  My heart is aflutter.

When the dust settles from Colange-polozza the Raptors are going to be a team with (approximately) 16 players under contract; they will be right up against the luxury tax threshold; the luxury tax threshold is trending downwards.

No…  [...]]]> After yesterday’s post, everyone should be up to speed on all Raptorian matters.  If you aren’t, simply CLICK HERE.

When the dust settles from Colange-polozza the Raptors are going to be a team with (approximately) 16 players under contract; they will be right up against the luxury tax threshold; the luxury tax threshold is trending downwards.

No…  We’ve got to dig deeper.

What’s the end game?  Has Colangelo designed a roster to compliment Chris Bosh, or, has he designed a roster to remain competitive when Chris Bosh leaves via trade or free agency?

Nyet!  Deeper.

Do we have a team of players on the rise?  Have they peaked?  What do the cold, hard numbers say?  Does Chris Bosh have the potential to become a superstar?  Would we have seen it already?

Halt!!  There’s only one question.  Can the Raptors, with their current core-group, win a Championship?  We’re going to get there today.  Eventually.

Raptor Salaries: The folks over at Hoops Hype haven’t updated the Raptors 2009/10 salary picture yet, good thing I’m here.

Click on this linkity linkity for an updated spread sheet of Raptor salaries, including an assumed salary for Jarrett Jack (if the Pacers decline) and Chris Bosh if the Raptors sign him to an extension.

A payroll of $65,000,000 (plus) will put the Raps into the top ten in the NBA.  More interesting – at least, to the author – is the prospective payroll of the Raptors (if Bosh re-ups) through the 2012/13 season.  A core of Bosh, Turkoglu, Bargnani and Calderon is going to cost approximately $45,000,000 per year.  When you include DeRozan’s rookie deal (good through 2014) and at least a few more draft picks / role players, the current makeup of the Raptors precludes them from signing anyone of consequence for the foreseeable future.  Moreover, if MLSE decides that they don’t want to pay the luxury tax, the Raptors could be forced to deal one of their top-four, (who, hereafter will be referred to as The Inflexible Four) because the NBA Salary Cap is moving backwards faster than Bob Ryan’s credibility.  (Ryan pronounced Brock Lesnar’s name les-NAAARRRR yesterday.  On purpose.  Do some phonetic preparation, Ryan.)

Finally we have the looming specter of a lockout in 2011/12 and the very real possibility that NBA players will have to wear rape-diapers because of David Stern.  I don’t know what that lockout will yield.  Neither do you.  Neither does Bryan Colangelo.  So, there.

All of the above information takes place in a world where the Raptors tie themselves to one Christopher Bosh.  So what if that doesn’t happen?  Again, that’s why I’m here.

Before we get into who replaces Bosh, let’s examine the Raptors without him.

A TurkishItalianSpanish combination of Turkoglu, Calderon and Bargnani makes the Raptors the most identifiably International team in the entire NBA.

This Foreign Threesome (which I highly recommend typing into Google) would make an average of $28,000,000 over the next four years.  Am I crazy or does that nucleus – and the accompanying financial flexibility – seem much more intriguing than The Inflexible Four pushing us right up against the luxury tax every year?

Let’s imagine – just for a minute – that Colangelo likes The Foreign Threesome better.  Okay…  (This is going to be fun.)

Chris Bosh Trade Scenarios:

• The Raptors trade Chris Bosh to the Portland Trailblazers for Rudy Fernandez, LaMarcus Aldridge and Travis Outlaw.
  • Who doesn’t make this deal?  By the way, all of the deals work in the ESPN NBA Trade Machine –
• The Raptors trade Chris Bosh to the Minnesota Timberwolves for Brian Cardinal, Kevin Love and…  RICKY RUBIO!!
  • OOOOOOOOHHHHHHH  ricky RU-BI-O / ru-BI-O / ru-BI-OHH / rrrricky ru-BI-OHHHHHH!  I’d take more about a Spanish point guard tandem of Calderon and Ricky Rubio but I fear that I may attempt to make love to a plate of Polvorón. Amazingly, I think that it’d be Minnesota who turns down this deal.  The chances that they could re-sign Chris Bosh after next season are marginal, at best.  So, why is it on the list?  Simple: Their GM just selected two straight point guards with the 5th and 6th pick in the NBA Draft.  Anything is possible.
    
• The Raptors trade Chris Bosh to the Golden State Warriors for Anthony Randolph and Monta Ellis.
  • What’s that?  Monta Ellis has a bad contract?  He’s making a million more per year than Andrea Bargnani.  And, lest we forget, Anthony Randolph might actually be the most fascinating player in the entire NBA.

If you can look past the idea of trading Bosh (assuming you’re against it) and envision the Raptors revamped roster after any one of the above scenarios, I think you’ll agree with me: This team is better off (with the Turkoglu signing / Bargnani extension in the bag) trading Chris Bosh for a group of young players either on a rookie-scale deal, or locked into reasonable long-term contracts.

Whatever your opinion, that isn’t the world that we live in.  So, let’s look at what we have.

The Raptors in 2009/10 and beyond:

• What does Vegas think?  My buddy EyeBLeaf and I have an ongoing bet about the Toronto Blue Jays.  We picked a number of different categories and bet the Over/Under.  The cumulative winner from those categories will take home $100 and the loser will have to procure a photograph with Mike Wilner (who I actually like now).  Long story short, there was one category that we weighted more heavily than others: O/U Win Total, which Vegas set at 81.5.  Four weeks ago, that number seemed preposterous.  Now, it’s bang on.  The lesson: Vegas knows, my friends.  So, what does Vegas have to say about the 2009/10 Raptors: Well, for starters the Raptors are 66/1 to win the NBA Championship, far behind perennial powerhouses like: Philadelphia, Washington, New Orleans and New York (doesn’t count because the books are trying to lure the sucker bet from deranged Knicks fans all over the world).  That’s not particularly promising; after all, the NBA isn’t the NFL where a team like the Rams (or Pats, Giants, Titans and Cardinals) can come out of nowhere to either win the title, or make an appearance in the title game.  In the NBA, it just doesn’t happen.  According to Vegas either Cleveland, Boston, Orlando, Los Angeles, San Antonio or Denver are going to win the Championship.  If I gave you the field, would you take that bet at even odds?  I wouldn’t.
• Have we seen Chris Bosh’s ceiling?  The short answer: Mostly.  In his sixth full season, the Raptors dragged 77 games (4 off of career high), 22.7 ppg (career high), 10.0 rpg and 38 mpg out of him.  That’s his offensive zenith, folks.  Defensively, there’s still room for improvement.  Health wise, there is not.  Chris Bosh has played 450 games (not including international matches) without a serious injury.
• What can we expect from Hedo Turkoglu?  Durability.  Turkoglu has averaged 75 games per season over a nine-year NBA Career.  Real or imagined, he seems to want the ball in his hands at the end of a game.  (If you’re scoring at home, Chris Bosh is now the third option for end of game play-calling after Turkoglu and Calderon.  Just saying.)  He’s going to get you 11 – 13 ppg, and maybe most importantly, the Raptors will be able to unleash a front-line that is 254 inches tall.  Good stuff.
• Cosa possiamo aspettarci da Andrea Bargnani?  Michael Grange did a nice job on his blog From Deep of projecting what the Raptors invested in when they signed Bargnani to his extension.  Grange mentions that Bargnani, through the final 46 games of last season averaged 18.1 / 6.0 / 46% / 43% from 3-point range.  Could there be more of an upward trend?  Perhaps.  Would the above numbers be suitable for $10,000,000 per-year?  Actually, yes.  They would indeed.
• Can Jose Calderon survive and thrive in this league without a capable backup who plays 15 – 20 minutes a night over an extended period of time?  No.  Which is why the Jack deal would be a real boon for Colangelo.  Jack is just good enough to push Jose and drill into some of the competitive fire that we saw during the TJ / Jose melodrama that played out over the most exciting Raptor regular season ever.

Where does that leave us in a world where Bosh signs an extension?  Well, it leaves us with a lot of “ifs”.

If DeRozan is a good pick at #9.

If The Inflexible Four all stay healthy.

If Chris Bosh isn’t a flashier version of Shareef Abdur-Rahim.

If 46 games and snippets from his rookie season is enough to ignore a terrible middle-stanza from Andrea Bargnani.

If Calderon is an elite-level point guard.

If Jay Triano can actually coach.

If, if, if.

In my estimation, there are simply too many variables that could misfire; too many eggs in one basket, as it were.  And that’s before we settle on a topic heretofore unmentioned in this (exceptionally) long post: Defense.

Who the hell is going to play defense?  Are the Raptors shutting down Lebron when they play the Cavs, or Pierce when they play the Celtics?  What about when they play the Magic and Vi…  *Blacked out.*

The only way that I see the Raptors being anything more than a 44 – 48 win-team is if DeMar DeRozan is an above-average draft pick.  By “above-average” I mean really, really good.  Like, “top 2 in the draft” level good.  Pinning all these hopes on a kid who showed up for 1/3 of the PAC 10 season seems a little backward for a team spending so much money on established NBA players.

I might be wrong.  Bosh might be the guy.  But even if he is, we’re not winning the title as presently constituted.  I wish that wasn’t all that mattered.

But it is.

- SA.

EDIT: If you’ve made it all the way to the end you’re either A. Bored or, B. Like the site.  Whatever the reason, you can click here to Follow Me on Twitter.

A rough time line for everybody:

Watching Serena Williams play tennis.

An elderly white man will stop in his tracks should he happen upon a Serena Williams tennis match. Some bullet points:

- 95% of the time, they want her to lose.

- If they encounter [...]]]> In the spirit of Stuff White People Like, which I re-read yesterday, here’s something Old White Men Like:

Watching Serena Williams play tennis.

An elderly white man will stop in his tracks should he happen upon a Serena Williams tennis match. Some bullet points:

- 95% of the time, they want her to lose.

- If they encounter another white male over the age of 20, it will take approximately 11 seconds before they comment on her gigantic boobs.

- They do not find her attractive.

- They would give up two weeks salary to sleep with her.

- Make sure not to mention the fact that less than one-half of one-percent of the African American community plays tennis, and, in spite of this fact, they have produced the two most dynamic tennis players EVER.*

Deductive logic would suggest that Roger Federer sits atop his perch because Allen Iverson thinks tennis is for pussies.

This makes Elderly White Men sad.

* – Is everyone aware that the Williams Sisters are, essentially, part-time tennis players? When interested they decimate the best players in the world at an age when most female tennis players have been taken behind Center Court and euthanized like Eight Belles.

The reason? They’re just much better athletes than every other professional tennis player. That’s astounding. Somebody get Malcolm Gladwell on the phone.

- S’93

In lieu of a 4,000 word post that would have undoubtedly damaged the ‘f’ key on my new laptop, I’ve excerpted something from Scott Carefoot, who wraps it up nicely, whilst crafting a new rectum [...]]]> When I read yesterday that Doug Smith thought Anthony should get a 2 year / $10,000,000 deal, I did a poop.

In lieu of a 4,000 word post that would have undoubtedly damaged the ‘f’ key on my new laptop, I’ve excerpted something from Scott Carefoot, who wraps it up nicely, whilst crafting a new rectum for Ian Thomsen.  Enjoy:

That ludicrously inaccurate assertion by Thomsen is just one of two ridiculous statements I read by professional basketball writers today. The other was this one by Toronto’s own Doug Smith about what Bryan Colangelo should offer Anthony Parker: “I would think a two-year deal at somewhere around $9 or $10 million – the same salary he made last year – with perhaps a third year option would be logical jumping off point.”

I’ve made an effort to avoid picking on Doug recently but I simply can’t let this one go. Anthony Parker is a 34-year-old, back-up quality shooting guard who suffered a steep decline this past season. Any GM who thinks a team in the Raptors’ position should offer Parker that kind of contract is grossly incompetent and should be immediately relieved of his duties — and yes, I will label Colangelo thusly if he’s crazy enough to follow Smith’s advice.

Just thought of this while I was copying and pasting…  Here’s a new rule for NBA GM’s when dealing with a free-agents over the age of 30: If said player is older than the amount of games your team won, don’t offer him a contract.

- S’93