This site has been greatly inspired by Mebane Faber’s The Ivy Portfolio: How to Invest Like the Top Endowments and Avoid Bear Markets. I have added a new tool to the site for those interested in tracking the 10 month moving average signals for some of the portfolios listed in Faber’s book.

Faber discusses 5, 10, and 20 security portfolios that have trading signals based on long-term moving averages. I have added a new spreadsheet at the top of Scott’s Investments which tracks the 10 month moving average for the 5 and 10 security portfolios.  When a security is trading below its 10 month simple moving average, the position is listed as “Cash”. When the security is trading above its 10 month simple moving average the positions is listed as “Invested”.

The spreadsheet’s signals update daily using dividend/split adjusted closing price from Yahoo Finance data. The 10 month simple moving average is based on the most recent 10 months including the current month’s most recent daily closing price.

There is a link to the spreadsheet at the top of the site (“Ivy Portfolio”); however, if you want a wider view of the spreadsheet click on the link “Ivy Portfolios” on the right hand column of the site.

As of today’s close, the current signals are listed below:

No current positions.

Is Silver the Great Trading Opportunity of 2012-2013? John Carlucci

Is Decoupling Possible in a Global Economy? MacroTides courtesy The Big Picture

Staring Into the Abyss (pdf) – John Mauldin

Working Out of Debt (pdf) – McKinsey Quarterly via Mauldin

The Hangover – The Economist

Fed: Benchmark Rate Will Stay Low Until ’14 – Bloomberg

Looking at the monthly chart for GLD, you will see a strong upward channel (in red) that began in 2008. Of note is the brief breakout of the channel in 2011, which resulted in a strong sell-off the subsequent month, bringing GLD back within the channel:

In the chart above, important support levels are drawn in green and a resistance level is drawn in red at August’s closing price of $177.69. In the midst of the sell-off in December, I noted $140 looked to be a strong level of support if GLD continued to decline.  $140 remains a support level, but now that GLD has found support within the channel, the channel itself again becomes an important support and resistance level.

Since 2009 the 10 month simple moving average (in blue) has closely aligned itself with the bottom of the channel.  GLD currently resides above the 10 month moving average, although the break below the 10 month SMA in December was the first significant break below the average since 2008.  Also, we see the 10 month average migrating to the middle of the channel, a reflection of the slowing momentum in recent months.

Gold has lost some of its “mojo” in recent months but it is clinging to its upward trend.  In order to still consider GLD in an uptrend it will need to close January above its 10 month moving average and above the bottom of the long-term channel.

For daily analysis of gold, check out Chris Vermeulen’s  Gold, Oil & Index ETF Trading Analysis

 Dwelling in Uncertainty – John Hussman

Why It’s Time to Break Up the ‘Too Big to Fail’ Banks – Sheila Bair

A Long-Term Look at Inflation - Doug Short

Europe’s Road to Nowhere, Part 2 - Satyajit Das

Revolt of the Insiders – Barry Ritholtz

Bonds Turning Down from Top of Channel – Tom McClellan