Super Bowl XLVII
(13-6) Baltimore Ravens at
(15-4-1) San Francisco 49ers
6:30 PM ET, CBS
San Francisco’s Offense vs. Baltimore’s Defense
After seeing Colin Kaepernick tear apart a hapless Green Bay front seven for 181 rushing yards, the Atlanta Falcons overcompensated and kept the QB in the pocket the entire game. Unfortunately, that left Frank Gore in the clear on read-option plays, on which he scored two touchdowns. Kaepernick picked the Atlanta secondary apart in the second half of that contest, proving he has accuracy to go with the arm strength and mobility. The Raven defense excels at maintaining their edges, meaning they don’t let the ball-carrier get outside of them to the sidelines. They like funneling the ball back inside so Ray Lewis can get inflated tackle numbers. (Which he does.) But what do they do against the read-option? Crash the corners and use the safeties to cover? Assign a defensive end to lay out the QB while a linebacker fills in against the running back? The Ravens have had two weeks to prepare for this mobile QB, so I’d be surprised if he busted too many long runs against them. Instead, we’re probably going to see a lot of Frank Gore and LaMichael James used to test Lewis as the game wears on.
]]>The racing form provides much more information. Much of this is countered by Beyer, whose speed ratings are "assigned", but based on very scientific looks at the running in each race.
I like to divide a runner's race in 3 portions, with the middle one being about half of the race. Often one has to estimate, or go by distances that are hard to use. For instance a mile and an eighth may have many entrants who have only ran 5 1/2 or up to 7 furlongs.
Beyer does a good job of calculating the stages of a run for the Beyer speed figures. Beyer allows for the "slow" track.
The "slow" track is not pointed out in programs. Muddy, fast, sloppy, good are all fairly meaningless in the long run. The true figure is the "speed differential", which Beyer usually does a good job of allowing for.
]]>Continue reading "Bears Beat Giants 20-17 in Pre-Season Game"
]]>I think theyear was 1986 when I worked third shift at Philip Morris. I was a professional assassin, killing thousands of people a year, or at least being a cog in the killing machine. So anything was a step up.
I made good money, and like most who get into the business, this is how I started. My father lived less than a mile from me, and we saw each other a lot. He also did well as a Union worker at Reynolds Aluminum. He was in AA, and most of those guys played the horses, too.
A third man, Frank Pezzarosi, a big burly red haired working man, joined us when we formed our stable along with the fourth, the trainer, John McCord. They were all about 50, and in AA. I attended some AA meetings, and I was about 30. This was the sort of scenario people make movies out of.
]]>PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH:
PROGRAM NUMBER-NAME OF RUNNER-PROBABLE ODDS-COMMENTS
FRIDAY MAY 4, 2012, RACE 5 CHURCHILL 1 MILE TURF
10 DANCINGINHERDREAMS 6-1 The great generation that has mostly passed away were in awe of Mott, who was best at bringing out the single great in a stable, the Shot and Missed, the Heatherten, the Cigar. He hasmanaged to remain under the radar a bit, despite that. Here, he has one that looks ready to come into form after some tighteners.
8 MAGGIES' RANSOM 8-1 The fourth race off a layoff, off of fairly soft surfaces thus far, and Fairgrounds runners doing well
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(15-3) New England Patriots vs.
(12-7) New York Giants
6:30 PM ET, NBC
Starting with Brady and that offense, it’s clear they’re going to try and avoid testing their protection against that defensive line early when the adrenaline is high. Quick passes to Hernandez, Welker and possibly a still-injured Gronkowski will be the best options, followed by handing it off to Green-Ellis and Woodhead out of the backfield. Belichick’s plan should be to wear down the front four with a barrage of running plays and perhaps a mix of no-huddle possession passing. This way he can wear down the Giant defense for the second half and take control. The key will be how healthy Gronk really is and how many drives Brady and company can end with seven. If they’re settling for field goals the Giants will be happy. Perry Fewell’s defense just wants to keep it close going into the fourth so JPP, Tuck and Umenyiora can begin to furiously throw themselves at Brady. If it stays an even game going into the fourth I feel like it favors the Giants. Eli just has that maddening magic about him.
]]>Tebow can throw a pass or two in the clutch, like last week's OT thriller against Pittsburgh. But Joe Namath, he is not. Leave it to coach Bill Bellichick to implement a game plan that rendered Tebow-time, sooo-long goodbye. Denver's defense, which has played well of late, was completely ineffective in stopping the Pats onslaught. Passes were flying all over the place. There was no pass rush. Finally, New England looked like a team to reckon with. Tom Brady was masterful. His passes were precise, on target, on the money. It was like watching a wily craftsman take apart a swiss clock.
]]>The question is, if Matt Forte returns this season, will the Bears be in contention for a Wild Card. It doesn't look good. The Bears need to rely upon Marion Barber and Kahlil Bell to fill in for Forte, who accounted for 38% of total offense for the Bears. If people didn't think he was so valuable, let's see what they think after the game in Denver or the home game vs. Seattle? It was looking like the rest of the schedule was going to be meaningful for the fans of the Bears. Now, it looks like a survivors' guide to avoiding disaster.
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