Riding On Momentum

Temasek Says Markets Entering Period of Stress in Next 2 Years

noreply@blogger.com (Alex Koh) — Fri, 25 May 2012 00:33:00 +0000

From http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-22/temasek-says-markets-entering-period-of-stress-in-next-2-years.html

The afternoon of May 22, the Singapore government investment company Temasek (Temasek Holdings) said it expects the market will enter in the next 1-2 years the pressure of the debt crisis in Europe will increase the investment risk.

Schaeuble, Germany’s finance minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble, said yesterday that the European leaders in the region will do everything we can to stay in Greece in the euro area. May 19, the G8 leaders to urge Greece to stay within the euro zone.

Temasek’s chief investment officer TanChongLee said in a statement, “Despite our long-term value has been estimated by the European debt crisis in the next 12 to 24 months the market will enter a period of pressure of the recent Temasek, the urgent need of investment and cash stability, risks and opportunities coexist. “

closing the end of March 2011, Temasek controlled assets of $ 193 billion Singapore dollars (about $ 152 billion), when global The market is ready, Temasek will seek to invest more in the next 8 menstrual subject to significant losses. the United States over the weekend , Morgan Stanley International emerging markets index ( MSCI Emerging Markets Index) was downgraded to neutral. (Wen rice bowl)

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Market valuation has always been like a rubber band swinging between extreme bullish and bearish, it is likely that stocks will remain under pressure for the next 12-24 months however for those looking beyond this timeframe,the valuations of our market offers value. Hence what this means is that we should be selective in what we invest in this period and the environment for trading will likely be more difficult as well.

STI Rebound or breakdown?

noreply@blogger.com (Alex Koh) — Sun, 20 May 2012 14:57:00 +0000

STI closed at 2,779 into the weekend, coincidentally it has closed at the uptrend line which has been intact since we hit the major low in 2009 March and RSI is oversold.

There has been non-stop bad news coming out from the Europe Zone for the last 1-2 weeks which caused the individual counters and STI to drop heavily with commodities, oil and gas sector, pennies, mid caps and selected blue chips badly bruised.

Near Term,the stocks that has fallen heavily recently may get some rebound as long as the situation ease up a little because we have hit a 1) Strong Support 2) Market is oversold. However looking ahead for the next 2-3 weeks as long as the Greece issue drags out, it will be easier for the stock market to go down than head up unless we get another dose of central bank intervention globally or QE3.

Support 2,780 - 2,645
Resistance 2,850 - 2,890

Recommended course of action is look to cover some short position in this week but i do not recommend open long. If STI breaks below this support level, it may trigger a swift selldown to 2,645.

Weekly STI Chart Update(19th - 23rd March 2012)

noreply@blogger.com (Alex Koh) — Sun, 18 Mar 2012 14:23:00 +0000

Just to share,i attended a seminar by Robin Ho on Saturday at NTUC Auditorium Reading the Mind of the Market. Although we work in the same brokerage firm and his office is just beside the 1 i am in,we have never spoken beyond greeting each other. Overall i must say his seminar has been excellent and there's lots of areas that i could learn from.

He shared on 3 area
1) Looking at the big picture
2) Looking at price action.
3) Risk that can derail this rally

1) Currently the big picture of the market is still biased to further upside,however we have hit resistance in index since last week. Near term,risk remains that Index will decline, however this looks more likely to be a correction in the uptrend rather than a reverse to downtrend

So my suggestion is if you are looking to purchase as opposed to stocks that has run up a lot and has not corrected much,you might do better if you look at stocks that has already corrected for quite some time as they may be ready to move up again.

2) He was talking about looking at the stocks bar by bar and also about having the patience to wait for the right opportunity. Essentially he is looking for a spike in volume and for a price close above 50% of the bar as a possible candidate for taking the trade.

3) The only risk that has him concern is about the middle east situation between Israel and Iran. Should it escalate into a war,it will put upward pressure on Oil price which will push the world back into recession.

Now let's take a look at the DJI and STI chart

DJI has briefly broken through its prior resistance back in 2008 however things will get tough from this point on as we have now entered a trading range of 13,000 and 14,000 which was the previous top before market crashes. Although i remain optismitic that US market is likely to break above 14,000 this year. The relentless rally starting from Oct 2011 till date looks likely to need a correction to recharge before they could move higher.

STI is currently entering the trading range between 3,000 - 3,200 as such i believe index wise we are starting to face difficulty and may get a correction soon as well.

That being said individual stocks could still rally as we have seen from the last few weeks,despite the index hovering,individual stocks are still chalking up gains.

You should consider looking at the chart and look for stocks that has corrected for some time with increased volume and bullish candlestick pattern.

One example could be ChinaMinZhong. Do take note however that i am not asking you to buy it because as opposed to spotting BUY signal,i have seen more SELL signal turn up in my search for counters to watch for this upcoming week. As such i think it is likely that upcoming week may not be a good 1 for the bulls.

Please take note that i will be conducting a joint seminar with my partner on 31st March 2012, he is both an excellent speaker as well as a good trader whom i am currently learning from. I believe it will greatly benefit those who are at a loss on how they should go about approaching their financial freedom.

You can either register from the registration link above or go to this website http://alexkoh310312.eventbrite.com/

Kindly take note that the seminar will be conducted in Chinese.

Weekly STI Chart Update(5th - 9th March 2012)

noreply@blogger.com (Alex Koh) — Sun, 04 Mar 2012 14:52:00 +0000

I stand by my view that since 2 weeks ago that in the near term, STI is still digesting the strong gains chalked up in Jan and Feb 2012. This does not mean that there are no opportunities, in fact the market has shown exceedingly strong strength as stocks take turns to chalk up strong gains despite the uncertainties ahead of us.

For this upcoming week,i think we may see a broader risk off sentiment as the issues surrounding Greek has failed to be resolved despite time running short and oil prices are likely to stay high due to the Middle East tension.

Unless there are steep declines in the counters,it may be better to stay aside for a while.

STI
Support 2925 - 2900 - 2860
Resistance 3000 - 3030 - 3080

Overall i mantain the view that in 3-6 months perspective, market is likely to trade higher than current but near term it will be harder to gauge the direction.

Stocks with improving technical view includes Yanlord, Sembcorp Ind,Sgx,ST Engg,SembMar,HPH,STXOSV,GLP,ChinaAOil,Capitaland,Ezion(Above 250 SMA,50SMA above 100SMA)

These does not mean that they are an outright buy but if they should decline heavily(RSI oversold) if market is in risk off mode,they will probably be better bets.

You should still exercise your own judgement as these are provided for your information only.

Weekly STI Chart Update(20th - 24th Feb 2012)

noreply@blogger.com (Alex Koh) — Sun, 19 Feb 2012 13:53:00 +0000

Market continued to push higher this week although the trading is a bit mixed. We have been battling it out at the STI 3,000 point for couple of days in a row. It was the area where our last rally back in Apr 2010 stalled before market begin a correction.

But taking the short term noise aside,you should be able to see that STI actually made a W bottom with a breakout to the upside in the weekly chart.

Should you have excess cash you can set aside,you should consider nibbling some stocks up on any decline as we consolidate for the next leg of the rally. Of course there are still many skeptics about the rally but most rallies begin when the news are all bad. Hence what we are trying to do is not look at the news but rather look at the reaction of the news. Bad news but market goes up indicates we should look to buy. Good news but market goes down means we should look to stand aside or consider to short.

I do not really know what will happen in this upcoming week,we could either pushed higher or finally start to pull back although i am still tilt towards the market pulling back in near term but based on the weekly chart,my bias remains up for the next few months.

Should you have shares that is not profitable,you may consider keeping them longer. If this rally is valid as i anticipated,most shares should be headed higher over the course of this year.

I will be sharing the stocks which based on technical analysis will likely outperform with my clients in the client event in this upcoming Friday 24th Feb 2012.

Hurry and book your place in the link http://alexkoh240212-eorg.eventbrite.com/

Weekly STI Chart Update(13th - 17th Feb 2012)

noreply@blogger.com (Alex Koh) — Sun, 12 Feb 2012 13:53:00 +0000

STI manage to continue to break higher this week however many stocks has failed to continue the buoyant move in the previous week.

This is a sign of the rally running out a bit of steam. With RSI over 70 and based on previous observations,a end of the week of RSI over 70 has always preceded some form of correction within the next 2 week.

This indicates that we should be more cautious of opening long position this week but if there are steep decline,i still think you could consider entering a small amount because we will never know where the low is until on hindsight.

It is still difficult to read the market at this time hence try not to use leverage and only nibble the amount you can afford to hold. Do not over-extend yourself,only when things are clearer then you should consider leveraging to maximize your returns.

I will be screening for some of the stocks to look out for to send tomorrow morning in this upcoming week for my clients and should update those possible candidates in my blog over the next week.

Weekly Technical STI Update

noreply@blogger.com (Alex Koh) — Sat, 04 Feb 2012 15:19:00 +0000

Weekly Analysis for 6th Feb - 10th Feb 2012

STI is still hovering around a previous resistance but the performance of non-index stocks this week has been excellent with many chalking up huge amount of gains and i notice that there are now more stocks breaking out of recent high or into new high.

All this suggests that the stock market is now in a very strong position. Even if stocks prices decline,it is likely that once any retracement when over should see prices rebound and break higher.

Although market looks overbought and prices could start dipping any time. You should consider entering small on any intraday decline or any sharp decline due to negative news and look to add bigger only when market is oversold. During this week, many stocks has failed to fall despite widespread media talking about a correction. The resilient may indicate that we could head even higher in the near term before we corrects down.

Weekly Technical STI Update

noreply@blogger.com (Alex Koh) — Sun, 29 Jan 2012 15:11:00 +0000

STI is sitting between a resistance zone between 2900-2935 and RSI is overbought making the outlook for this week uncertain.

News over the weekend has been mixed so it will be difficult to gauge the initial reaction at the start of the week but overall if there are any heavy decline intraday,it should be a relatively good opportunity for purchase of stocks.

If no heavy decline occur,you may wish either purchase small or to stand aside for 1-2 days and observe the market as DJ has also hit a resistance zone and it remains unseen whether it will start to retrace or break above it.

Overall i am cautiously optimistic in looking for buy entry for the market on dip in this upcoming week.

I will be holding a seminar on 10th Feb 2012. You can sign up at this website http://alexkoh100212.eventbrite.com/

Hope to see you there

Overview of 25th Jan 2012

noreply@blogger.com (Alex Koh) — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 14:52:00 +0000

STI is up 42 points today and the rally was very broad base with stocks from virtually every sector rallying.

At this level,it will be difficult to gauge on what will happen in the next 1-2 days so it might be prudent to take a step back and assess the situation again next week. For stocks whereby you are deep in the money,you may wish to consider taking some off and re-enter again when market retraces but try not to offload all your shares just in case the market continues to go up from here before retracing.

Overall i am still positive bias for stock market although there will still be blips along the way.

If you are a more frequent/aggresive trader,you may wish to consider looking at US stocks instead as US market is likely the place that will outperform

Happy New Year

noreply@blogger.com (Alex Koh) — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 00:57:00 +0000

I will avoid speaking about the Market today because we will be entering into a extended holiday and instead share some knowledge instead.

As can be seen recently,news are still bad and everyone seems to be talking about a poor 1st half and a recovery in the 2nd half. Should that really come to fruition then Stock Market is likely to bottom out in 1st Half 2012 because stock market doesn't start rising when everything is clear sky,it starts rising when the prospect has turn for the better.

Sure, the Europe problem has been hogging the limelight for the last 6 months but after the market has been so bearish,the recent news which is even worst back in December 2011 fail to take out the 2,580 low set earlier last year. Is this the kind of market that will do a big drop or instead do a squeeze up?

A lot of brokerage houses and newspaper has been talking about 2,100-2,300 target for STI for this year, personally i believe that as long as 2,580 is not taken out,the market is more prone to going up because there are so many people negative and so many people short-selling already and funds has been so underweight in cash.

We have had a spectacular rally last 2 weeks,so ideally if there can be a retracement of some sort,it will provide an excellent opportunity for us.

Try to change your bearish mindset a bit after the new year and hopefully this will prove to be a very rewarding year for all of you.

Wrap up 18th Jan 2012

noreply@blogger.com (Alex Koh) — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 14:41:00 +0000

We are likely to continue to decline tomorrow as a lot of stocks experienced a lower close after they run up in the early part of the day.

We are nearing a 2 days holiday and tendancy is people will not want to carry risk over a long weekend cum holiday. That being said. I still think the rally has legs to continued further so you may be keen to enter if there are any steep drop these 2 days.

List of better stocks to consider remain unchanged
ChinaAoil,,Olam,Hyflux,Biosensor,Stxosv,Sembcorp,Noble,Yangzijiang,Yanlord, NOL ,Kepcorp,Sembmar,DBS,Sia,Ara,Glp,Sgx

List of Stocks with High Interest

noreply@blogger.com (Alex Koh) — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 00:56:00 +0000

These are some of the stocks showing high interest yesterday
UOB,SGX,OCBC,OLAM,NOBLE,STXOSV,GLP,CAPMALLASIA,GENTING SP,YZJ,SWIBER

There appears to be too many picks with high interest yesterday hence i believe today will be more of a profit taking day for some of the counters. It may be prudent to stand aside for today and if you have counters in nice profit you may wish to consider taking some of them off.

Overall economic data appears supportive for the market and Europe has been engaging in massive injection of liquidity, that should lend support to the market but market has run slightly ahead of itself. If you wish to consider stocks, you may wish to consider stocks that has not run up yet.

List of stocks with High Interest

noreply@blogger.com (Alex Koh) — Mon, 16 Jan 2012 15:24:00 +0000

There were no stocks with high interest today as market was generally in a sideways or selloff mode due to the downgrade of 9 European countries. US is not trading tonight due to a Public Holiday as such we will take cue from US futures tomorrow.

Stocks on watchlist for entry on retracement
NOL
Daily Pivot
S1 $1.235
S2 $1.20
S3 $1.18
R1 $1.29
R2 $1.31
R3 $1.345

Olam
Daily Pivot
S1 $2.22
S2 $2.2
S3 $2.18
R1 $2.26
R2 $2.28
R3 $2.30

Sembcorp
Daily Pivot
S1 $4.34
S2 $4.26
S3 $4.19
R1 $4.49
R2 $4.56
R3 $4.64

Hyflux
Daily Pivot
S1 $1.29
S2 $1.26
S3 $1.235
R1 $1.355
R2 $1.38
R3 $1.415

If there are further retracements,these are the stocks you should still be watching closely. If you are keen in knowing their pivots or support/resistance level,you may check with me.

Others include Noble,Yangzijiang,Yanlord,ChinaAoil,Biosensor,Kepcorp,Sembmar,STXOSV,DBS,SIA,ARA,GLP,SGXmbmar,STXOSV,DBS,SIA,ARA,GLP,SGX.

Europe is up yesterday despite the 9 Europe countries downgrade. This is in accordance with my view that market is turning up and we should be looking to buy on dips instead of looking to short.

STI Outlook 16th - 20th Jan 2012

noreply@blogger.com (Alex Koh) — Sun, 15 Jan 2012 15:42:00 +0000

It is likely that we see some retracement in this upcoming week for the index though we may start to rotate to rally the non-index stocks as the fear for the Europe zone has been subsiding and stock prices are still low. As mentioned previously,the focus will be on the lookout for stocks that has start to move to purchase on retracement instead of going for stocks that has yet to move. Please refer to the list of stocks with high interest for reference. STI has entered into the resistance zone as of Friday closing and RSI is now above 60. It makes a relative strong case for some retracement in this upcoming week because 1) Hit resistance 2) A RSI above 60 is overbought in a downtrend We should probably exercise more caution in going long on Monday or Tuesday unless there are steep decline. DJI is still flirting with the downtrend resistance line and they will not be trading on Monday night. We will only know whether they will breakout or retrace from Tuesday onwards. DJI will likely determine whether we can manage to break or will the market decline back in this upcoming week.

List of Stocks with High Interest (13th Jan)

noreply@blogger.com (Alex Koh) — Sun, 15 Jan 2012 00:38:00 +0000

We had a burst of optimism after the Bond Auction of Spain,Italy sold very well in Europe and it happened while Dow Jones hit resistance.

If you have been monitoring the stocks mentioned, you would have realized most of them chalk up very excellent gains on Friday.

Stocks on watchlist for entry on retracement
NOL,Olam,Noble,Sembcorp,Yangzijiang,Yanlord,Hyflux,ChinaAoil,Biosensor,Kepcorp,Sembmar,STXOSV(SIA Engg Removed)

Risk is definitely higher now with most of them having gone up for 4-5 days in a row so even though they are still good to go,you should be more cautious now as we are approaching CNY.

Stocks showing increased volume and price expansion on 13th Jan 2012
CSE Global,DBS,SIA,ARA,GLP,SGX

Out of these 6,CSE Global and DBS has moved up for many days in a row so they may start to show signs of fatigue but the other 4 SIA,ARA,GLP,SGX are in the fresh portion of gaining interest so you should probably consider those 4 on decline in this upcoming week.

Those on watchlist can still be considered if there are retracement in price. As long as you are not using leveraged but using cash to pick up,these stocks will likely post gains for you within 2 months. The current market is not ideal for using leveraged as we are not moving in the same direction as the mid and long term trend.

The situation in Europe has improved for the better but fear level in local investors remain high due to the 4-5 months of decline previously. Stock prices are still cheap, if you have the capital, you should consider entering gradually.

The downgrade of 9 European Countries on Friday is likely to impact the sentiment on upcoming Monday. We will need to monitor the situation closely.

If there are any steep decline in the stocks mentioned above,you might wish to consider taking a 2nd look.

List of Stocks with High Interest (12th Jan)

noreply@blogger.com (Alex Koh) — Thu, 12 Jan 2012 23:12:00 +0000

Market had a pullback yesterday as people went sidelines ahead of the Europe debt auction. The auction came out nicely due to the measures undertaken previously.

As spoken,increased volume and price ranges precede movement in that direction but they can either pullback some or continued in the same direction but tendency is over the near term they should be heading in that direction.

There are no stocks beginning an increased volume and price ranges on the 12th Jan 2012 although UOB continued to show price expansion and increased volume.

Of the 12 stocks showing expanded range yesterday,3 posted gains(all banks) while 9 retraces(STX OSV,NOL,Olam,Noble,Sembmar,SIA Engg,Sembcorp,Yangzijiang,Yanlord.

Out of the watchlist picks, Hyflux,ChinaAoil,Biosensor chalk up gains while Kepcorp,Sembmar,STXOSV post losses.

As a rule of thumb,there is no way for anyone to know whether a stock will rise or fall the next day. What we do know is when certain criteria are met,those stocks has a higher chance to rise or decline over a period of time unless it fulfills an expansion of volume and price range in the opposite direction or support is broken.

DJI is now hovering around a trendline resistance so it may pause or retrace. Should the resistance be broken,it will have a run up to perhaps new high but technical chart for STI is weaker so i leave it up to your discretion whether to purchase or wait for retracement. STI will only turn positive after we break 2,780.

List of Stocks with High Interest(11th Jan)

noreply@blogger.com (Alex Koh) — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 15:03:00 +0000

Based on the stocks that i track,these are the stocks that has increased volume and expansion of trading range today. As the saying goes,a stock in motion is more likely to continued moving in the same direction rather than reverse.

Market appears likely to be firm over the next few days with many stocks chalking up gains or do some pullback before they resume their upside. Overall i am still of the bias that we are in a multi-week bear rally so you might wish to place all the strong stocks i mentioned in the previous post into your watchlist. Ideally you should purchase them as close to the support as possible but we will still need to exercise the judgement whether to buy or not because it may or may not go back to the support but buying on retracement in these stocks will be a better bet than a random purchase.

Now onto the crux of this post

The stocks that has shown expansion in volume and price range for today are STX OSV,NOL,DBS,Noble,Olam,OCBC,Sembmar,SIA Engg,Sembcorp,UOB,Yangzijiang,Yanlord. Hence you may wish to observe them closer tomorrow.

Multi-Week Bear Rally in progress?

noreply@blogger.com (Alex Koh) — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 01:51:00 +0000

There are a few reasons that people buy,some buy because the stock is strong,some buy because they think the stock is cheap but the end objective are all the same which is to make profit.

Overall i think the small picture is turning up even though the larger picture is still down and if you purchase likely any stocks now or on any dip and hold,you are like to make money over the next couple of weeks because i think we are entering a multi-week bear rally

There are a couple of stocks that has broken resistance and these are the stocks that you should look for if market retraces for whatever reasons.

Kepcorp

Broke resistance and prior resistance becomes support on any retracement. Support at 9.52. Resistance at 10.40

Sembmar

Broke resistance and prior resistance becomes support on any retracement. Support at 4.04. Resistance at 4.50,4.75

Hyflux

Broke resistance and prior resistance becomes support on any retracement. Support at 1.20. Resistance at 1.40

There are a few other stocks worth taking note.

Biosensor Support 1.40. Resistance No target. It broke new high and i believe out of all the stocks,this 1 is probably the best stock for taking entry on retracement.

ChinaAoil. Support 0.96. Resistance 1.12.

STXOSV. Support 1.24. Resistance 1.38

There are for your reference and you should make your own decisions on any buy/sell

I have updated the registration link above for the seminar on the month of Feb 2012. Kindly register if you are interested in attending. Thank You

STI Analysis

noreply@blogger.com (Alex Koh) — Sun, 08 Jan 2012 05:17:00 +0000

Big picture
We have a Downtrend Perfect Order in the STI chart as shown by 50SMA below 100SMA and 100SMA below 250SMA. This is an indication of a Strong Downtrend in Progress and if you are looking to long,it should only be under 2 conditions. 1) You are just trading for a rebound. 2) You are doing mid-long term investing.

But the higher probability trades dictates that we should be on the lookout for taking short opportunities.

Small Picture
We may get a possible upside breakout in the near term as the chart has maintained a Higher low setup. Providing opportunities to long and for those that has already long to get out at a profit and try to buy back at lower price.

We are likely to push slowly higher towards 2,940 as long as we remain above 2,600 Support. If we were to break that 2,520 will be on the cards for a rebound trade.

Some stocks has shown signs of turning as shown by their ability to break above the 100SMA in the daily chart but the low volume if persist will make the market unexciting until Chinese New Year is over. We may get some upside but expect volatile price movement ahead.

Roundup to 2011

noreply@blogger.com (Alex Koh) — Mon, 02 Jan 2012 14:48:00 +0000

2011 has been a disastrous year for all of us. I stopped posting since Sept as Europe issues start to escalate and we were hugging onto each and every piece of news,rumors that leaked out from there which made trading exceptionally difficult.

There are widespread belief that things are likely to get worst in the 1st Half 2012 before things get better in 2nd Half. My stand is as long as we hold 2,520 in STI. I am still slightly tilt to the upside but should we break below that, the market is likely to trend down lower with the next support around 2,400 and 2,280.

In fact if you have been monitoring the stocks,most stocks has got slaughtered more than 30-50% off their high hence looking at the STI points itself may not be very accurate as it has been artificially inflated due to the low volume component stocks.

If you wish to invest,it might be more prudent to invest in the bluechips with decent dividends on dip. It is not advisable to be using Margin or CFD in this kind of environment.

Unless market volume starts to pick up,the market is unlikely to be exciting.

What's half of very little? New bank rates

noreply@blogger.com (Alex Koh) — Sun, 25 Sep 2011 15:30:00 +0000

Local banks to cut interest rates to as low as 0.05% as environment weakens further

By SIOW LI SEN

THE three local banks will halve interest rates for savers to a mere 0.05 per cent come October in an attempt to stem the slide in their profitability amid deteriorating conditions.

The deteriorating global macroeconomic environment has resulted in the further reduction of interest rates, and the outlook is for rates to remain at historical lows for an extended period. Regrettably, we now have to align our rates with the market.

-- Karen Ngui,
DBS Bank spokeswoman

Moving in the opposite direction are foreign banks like HSBC and Standard Chartered which have launched interest rate promotions as growing mistrust of banks in Europe is leading foreign banks to secure their own funding via deposits, rather than depend on the wholesale interbank market.

HSBC and StanChart are offering promotional bonus interest rates until year end of 0.65 and 0.908 per cent respectively. 'Promotions . . . are part of the ongoing focus of HSBC to build and enhance relationships with existing customers . . . and to acquire new customers to bank with us,' said Paul Arrowsmith, HSBC Singapore head of retail banking & wealth management.

But local bankers say the worsening global outlook means savings rates will remain low for an extended period.

'The deteriorating global macroeconomic environment has resulted in the further reduction of interest rates, and the outlook is for rates to remain at historical lows for an extended period,' said Karen Ngui, DBS Bank spokeswoman. She noted though that DBS has avoided reducing deposit rates for the past 11 months despite the fact that rates have stayed low for some time now. 'Regrettably, we now have to align our rates with the market,' said Ms Ngui.

The current rates of between 0.1 and 0.4 per cent for savings and current accounts will fall to 0.05 and 0.035 per cent. This means inflation could eat even rapidly into the real value of money sitting in a bank. With August's 5.7 per cent inflation, a $100,000 deposit after 12 months may only be worth $94,350, a hefty $5,650 deficit. The new rates at OCBC Bank, United Overseas Bank and DBS Bank will become effective from Oct 1, Oct 12 and Oct 14 respectively.

'In the light of declining money market rates . . . we can no longer hold our interests rates at the current level,' said Carmen Chan, OCBC Bank head of deposits.

Economists say the recent reversal of safe haven flows into Singapore as global investors rush back into US dollars and US government bonds is not expected to make much of a dent in the flush liquidity situation.

'What we are perhaps seeing is the partial and temporary reversal of the tide of save haven flows that went into Singapore and some Asian economies from developed markets,' said Leong Wai Ho, Barclays Capital economist.

'And yes, a lot of this liquidity will be bottled up at the banks, given that precautionary demand for money has surged in tandem with the uncertainty, resulting in a sharp pullback in risk taking. Individuals and institutions are behaving the same way,' he said.

Worryingly for savers, he added: 'I don't see any light of the tunnel for savers at the moment. Our interest rates are closely guided by international rates. And the downdraft is still occurring,' he said.

Be cautious of 20th Sept 2011

noreply@blogger.com (Alex Koh) — Mon, 19 Sep 2011 07:05:00 +0000

From Zerohedge

From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors

Is September 20 Greek Default Day?

If Greece is going to default, September 20th seems to be as good a day as any. Actually, it is far better than most to be GD-Day.

Two big bonds, the 4.5% of 2037 and the 4.6% of 2040 both have coupon payments due that day, totalling 769 Million Euro. So if the IMF wanted to avoid letting another billion euro go down the drain, September 20th would be a good day to do it. The IMF seems to have delayed approving another tranche for now, so Greece must already have the money for this payment?

The Fed Scheduled their meeting for 2 days. It now starts on September 20th. Maybe a co-incidence, but what better way to be prepared for new emergency policies?

CDS "rolls" on the 20th. On the 21st, all Sept 2011 CDS will have expired. My guess is that banks own more protection than they sold to the September 20th date, so defaulting while those contracts are still valid would be a net benefit to the banking system. As a whole, triggering CDS will likely benefit banks as I can find banks that say they own protection against positions, but find more hedge funds are uninvolved or have sold protection to fund shorts in other sovereigns.

We just finished the big finance minister meeting. They can all return home, brief their staff and be prepared for Tuesday. Prior to D-Day there were lots of last minute preparations to make sure everyone was on the same page and as prepared as possible. Why not before GD-Day?

Papandreou cancelled a trip to the U.S. And Venizelos mentioned that Papandreou had to be in Athens for "Initiatives". If you ever wanted some hand holding from your leader, it would be at a time of default. He would have to be in country to calm things and mention all the deals he put in place last week on the conference call.

None of the headlines from Poland or comments from the IMF seem particularly positive. I can't even find the customary all is good, we are working together, this was a time of great progress, boiler plate statement having been released. Maybe they are waiting for Monday to let the world in on all the joyous progress. I suspect they are more likely to wait on bad news than good news. They have often tried to control bad news over the weekend. Maybe they have decided it would be better to deal with it real time.

There is still a chance we see some bold new initiative or plan, but as I wrote last week, every step and virtually every comment made, for the past 8 days, is consistent with preparing for a default.

Outlook Sept 19th - 24th

noreply@blogger.com (Alex Koh) — Sun, 18 Sep 2011 15:02:00 +0000

Movers for the upcoming week will be caused by the development in Europe as well as on the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. QE3 is widely expected to be announce on Wednesday but chances are Fed will announce more measures to keep the rally going. That being said, should they fail to announce more than what the market has already priced in, we may head for a ugly sell off.

Now let us take a look at STI.

STI went into an area of support and manage to bounce up from it and i think for the next 1-2 weeks the odds of it further bouncing up is quite high unless Fed disappoints the market.

The current sector performing better are the defensive stocks and the commodities counters so you may wish to take a look at those if market sell off but the 21st Fed meeting may be a game changer and i will update on the outcome

Outlook 22nd Aug - 26th Aug 2011

noreply@blogger.com (Alex Koh) — Sun, 21 Aug 2011 11:42:00 +0000

We have had a pretty rough ride in the last 3 weeks(selldown begun on 1st Aug 2011),there was opportunities that we can take advantage of last Thur which i highlighted to some clients over sms and some took advantage of the opportunity but the rebound lasted for only 3 days. Fortunately most of us already taken our profit and escape the ensuring selldown.

The last time we had such a fierce selldown was back in 26rd July 2008 and the selldown lasted till 17th Aug 2008(4 weeks)

I am looking at slightly further selling over this upcoming week as it enters the 4th week but buying opportunities may emerge near later in the week for a 1-2 weeks rebound.

As shared previously, the trend of least resistance has turned down since 2 weeks back but after having a selldown of such a big magnitude and long duration, it is about time to look for a relief rally of sorts for the near term before reassessing the situation.

Support for STI can be found within 2,630-2,680 and some stocks are approaching their key support areas as well

Below i will share some of the stocks that i had spotted which provide a reasonable risk/reward for trading the rebound

They are just for your consideration and is not meant as an advice or buy/sell call

SGX
Target for entry 6.30(Former resistance turn support)
Dividend of 15cents still in CD.
Approaching oversold level

Sembcorp Ind
Target for entry 3.77-3.79(Cluster of support and former resistance turn support)
Excessively selldown due to sembmar decline
Oversold

Smrt
Defensive stock
Target for entry 1.68(Former resistance turn support)
Oversold

ST Eng
Defensive stock
Target for entry 2.58
Oversold

These are not meant for long term investments and you should look to offload these after the market has rebound for a few days to a week while we assess on when to initiate our short positions for the market.

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Outlook 25th - 31st July 2011

noreply@blogger.com (Alex Koh) — Sun, 24 Jul 2011 14:54:00 +0000

We had seen a strong rally in the index this week as positive news seep out steadily after Monday.

Most stocks has seen a relief rally and short-covering this week and we broke out from a downtrend line at 3,150 to close above 3,180 on Friday.

There was some negative news over the weekend regarding the failure to reach an agreement of the debt ceiling raised so we might come down to re-test the 3,150 on Monday.

Most of the stocks currently despite enjoying a sharp rally this week are still in oversold region so unless there are major negatives this week. I am still of the bias of accumulating on dip for the break out to surge upwards.

I had wanted to attach the chart but faced some difficulties in photobucket. I will add it in once i solve it.

The sentiment currently is still very bearish and there are still a lot of fear in the market . Participants in the market take every short opportunity that table out recently but i think this may set us up for a nice rally due to the overall negative sentiment. We will have to watch for the price confirmation this week,should we fall to close below 3,150 this week,it will invalidate the breakout but should we hold above it. It gives rise to the chance that we may continue to go higher in the days ahead.

Do take note that i have a seminar on 5th Aug 2011 where i will share on the ways to analyze the stocks. You will be able to register at the link below http://phillipacademy-bcn-5aug11-eorg.eventbrite.com/