Rick's Picks

The ’Nank Plays It Very Safe

Rick Ackerman — Thu, 20 Jun 2013 02:28:03 +0000

We could not have improved on Bernanke’s speech yesterday, although investors appear to have found it more than a little unsettling. Don’t worry, they’ll soon be back in droves, snapping up stocks as always, without so much as a moment’s pause as to why. Meanwhile, everyone knew beforehand that even the vaguest hint about cutting back on the Fed’s monthly purchases of Treasury debt and mortgage securities would be enough to send global markets spasming. Look at the damage that’s been done already. In the case of so-called emerging markets, they have gotten crushed in recent weeks as hot money has fled for safer venues. And China’s financial system has begun to totter on fears that domestic credit speculation will not easily abide even a slight U.S. shift from easing.(...)
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When a ‘Perfect’ Camouflage Set-Up Fails

Brian Catalucci — Wed, 19 Jun 2013 22:51:46 +0000

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$NFLX – Netflix (Last:228.83)

Rick Ackerman — Wed, 19 Jun 2013 03:37:51 +0000

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E-Mini S&P Beckons Night Owls

Rick Ackerman — Wed, 19 Jun 2013 03:27:53 +0000

Shortly before midnight EDT, the E-Mini S&Ps were taking the sort of phony, mincing steps lower that could set up a luscious buying opportunity for camouflageurs working the night shift. If you read this message in the wee hours, check out the chart to see if the hypothetical trade I’ve sketched out matched reality.

$ESU13 – September E-Mini S&P (Last:1643.00)

Rick Ackerman — Wed, 19 Jun 2013 03:24:32 +0000

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GCQ13 – August Gold (Last:1349.60)

Rick Ackerman — Wed, 19 Jun 2013 01:51:14 +0000

With yesterday’s moderate selloff, August Gold approached a ledge from which it could fall a further $135, to a longstanding target at 1219.40, before finding a good bottom. ‘Camouflage’ traders should position from the short side for now, but if you’d rather watch from the sidelines with fingers crossed, it should be with the hope that buyers push this vehicle above 1370.00 today. That would turn the lowly one-minute chart impulsively bullish, which, although not much, would be a step in the right direction. _______ UPDATE (4:05 p.m. EDT): Nothing to encourage today; for in fact, the futures effortlessly crashed a minor HP support at 1353.60 that I’d flagged in the chat room. As noted here earlier, the 1219.40 bear-market target will become no worse than an even-odds bet if and when August Gold closes for two consecutive days beneath 1353.70.

A Simple Look at Gold’s ‘Technicals’

Rick Ackerman — Tue, 18 Jun 2013 22:01:02 +0000

[Note: August Gold's $23 dive yesterday brought it closer to the 1353.70 red zone identified when the commentary below was published Monday night. The intraday low was 1360.20, but you should keep in mind that the futures would need to close below 1353.70 for two consecutive days to become at least an even-odds bet to fall to a longstanding correction target at 1219.40. RA]

We’ll shun jargon for a moment and make it as simple as we can for bulls who have patiently stood by gold since it began its long dirge nearly two years ago. Looking at the picture below of Comex August futures, the weight of selling in recent months should be apparent even to those who know nothing about charts. It projects a potentially important low at 1219.40 that would imply a nearly 12% fall from current levels. That outcome, our worst-case scenario for the next 3-4 weeks, would become an odds-on bet if August Gold were to settle for two consecutive days beneath the red line at 1353.70. There would be no guarantees at that point that 1219.40, a major “Hidden Pivot “support, would hold, but we would be prepared to bottom-fish there aggressively in any event, albeit with a very tight stop-loss. More specifically, we would use our proprietary “camouflage trading” technique to hold theoretical risk as low as possible. If you would like more information about this method, which we use daily to trade and forecast, click here or consider taking a free trial subscription by clicking here.(...)
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$TSLA – Tesla Motors (Last:102.13)

Rick Ackerman — Tue, 18 Jun 2013 07:21:12 +0000

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A Subtle Failure in a Bellwether Stock

Rick Ackerman — Tue, 18 Jun 2013 02:40:27 +0000

My tout for Google today includes a chart that highlights a subtle but possibly significant failure by bulls to clear a key technical hurdle during the most recent stampede. I’m not betting against the stock at this point, mind you, but further developments bear watching.

$GOOG – Google (Last:886.27)

Rick Ackerman — Tue, 18 Jun 2013 02:21:36 +0000

Much as we’ve come to view the stock market as a one-way bet these days, so have we come to accept that Google will eventually sell for $1000 a share. Or will it? I’d need odds to bet the “Don’t Pass” line on this one, but it is at least curious that the stock’s most recent rally failed by a hair to surpass a small but technically significant ‘external’ peak at 892.14 that I’ve labeled in the chart. As we know, rallies that are destined for bigger things don’t usually hesitate at such trivial obstacles, but in this case Google did.

If you look closely at similar rallies in the chart, you’ll see that in each instance where there was a small peak that required just a smidgen more effort to exceed, the stock did not fail. GOOG could still surpass 892.14 on the next thrust, but as we know, it’s the first attempt that defines whether buyers have the moxie to keep on going. I raise this point speculatively, of course, and Google will still be on a nice ‘camo’ buy signal if it gets past 892.14 and pulls back from just above it. But we should nonetheless note the small failure that has already occurred as a very subtle warning sign of possible trouble ahead.