Rays Index

Rays Most Famous Fan Weighs In On Stadium Issue

The Professor — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 15:00:42 +0000

The Big Lead conducted a Q&A with Dick Vitale and asked him about the Rays ongoing fight for a new stadium…

I think there’s no doubt it would be great here if they built a modern stadium, but it gets down to dollars. And fan interest and putting people in the seats. I dont blame the owners – how you going to spend csh and you’re not getting people out? That becomes a domino effect. That becomes a problem. I think eventually we’ll get a new ballpark. I’m trying to be optimistic. with a new ballpark and the environment to make it so exciting to come. I mean, Yankee stadium is like a museum.

“Trying to be optimistic.” Ahhh, ’tis the life of a Rays fan.

Q&A with ESPN’s Dick Vitale [The Big Lead]

[THE HANGOVER] The One Where We Discuss Burrell To The Cubs, Burrell To The Mets And The New Jenn Sterger

The Professor — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 13:27:30 +0000

There might still be life to that Pat Burrell-for-Milton Bradley deal after all.

Cubs general manager Jim Hendry has rekindled talks with several clubs over the past 24 hours. Of these meetings Hendry’s had, he met with Tampa (sic) general manager Andrew Friedman and special assistant Gerry Hunsicker for more than an hour Monday night talking about the format of a Milton Bradley-for-Pat Burrell trade. There is a difference of $12 million in the two contracts, and Hendry and Friedman talked about the parameters of paring down the difference and the money.

We still have no idea why the Cubs would try to field a defense that includes both Burrell and Alfonso Soriano in the same outfield. That’s something the Mets would do.

And we have no idea why the Rays would want a guy that nobody in the Cubs clubhouse wants to be around.

DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…

Both Dioner Navarro and Fernando Perez had surgery recently. Both are expected to be ready for Spring Training. [St. Pete Times]
The Mets are interested in Pat Burrell? Wow. Stevie Wonder could see that Burrell is 18-kinds of wrong for the Mets and Citi Field. The Mets are just like that friend in college that bet on sports and never won a bet. It got so bad that you just started betting against any team he bet on. We bet other teams look at what the Mets want to do and do the exact opposite. [Newsday]
Rob Neyer says the smart thing for the Rays to do is to trade Carl Crawford, saying there is no way they will be able to sign him to an extension. [ESPN]
Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune writes about small-market teams and how they can compete. Andrew Friedman is quoted in the story saying that small-market teams can compete, but it is more difficult to stay on top consistently. [Chicago Tribune]
Umm. There will be considerably “less” to love of fellow Rayshead Jenn Sterger in the near future. And that is OK by us. We are looking forward to seeing the new Jenn. [Officially...Jenn]
Our old friend David Chalk made his debut over at NESW Sports. [NESW Sports]

100 Days ‘Til Pitchers And Catchers Report

The Professor — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 20:48:13 +0000

One hundred, one hundred, one hundred days to go, oh, oh…I wanna be sedated.

Evan Longoria Wins Gold Glove

The Professor — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 20:39:22 +0000

The Rays announced today that Evan Longoria won his first Gold Glove Award. Dirtbag is just the second Ray to win the award (Carlos Pena, ‘08).

“It’s the one award that I’ve wanted to win since I started pro ball,” Longoria said. “I take a lot of pride in my defense, so this award is very special to me. It’s humbling to have your name associated with some of the great players who have won a Gold Glove, especially the third basemen.

The Curious Case Of Carl Crawford’s Elias Ranking And What It Means For His Future With Rays

The Professor — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 17:10:27 +0000

The Elias Ranking for 2010 free agents has been released. All players are ranked at their respective positions based on a formula using stats from the previous two seasons. Players that are ranked in the top 20% of their position are classified as Type A and players ranked in the next 20% are classified as Type B (all players are ranked, not just free agents).

Carl Crawford is on the list as a Type B free agent. This may seem like a moot point now that the Rays have picked up his 2010 option, but it could have a huge impact on what the team chooses to do with CC moving forward.

While the Rays will certainly listen to offers for Crawford this winter, most assume CC will be back with the Rays in 2010. Then the Rays will wait until the trade deadline to decide whether to trade Crawford or let him walk in the off-season, depending on whether the Rays are still in contention in July.

This thinking was based on the assumption that if the Rays lost Crawford to free agency, they would receive two first-round compensatory picks. If Crawford is a Type B free agent, the Rays may be more inclined to trade him this winter or prior to the trade deadline, no matter where the team is in the standings.

So, how will we know what Crawford’s free agent status will be after the 2010 season? We don’t have the Elias formula (nobody has cracked it), but we can look at Crawford’s Wins Above Replacement (WAR) from the past two years.

In 2008, Crawford posted a 2.7 WAR and in 2009 that number was 5.5.

The good news is, when the Elias rankings are calculated next season, they will include Crawford’s strong 2009 campaign. The bad news is, if he posts another season like 2008, he will be Type B status again.

So can the Rays take a chance that Crawford will jump up to Type A status next season? At the very least, Crawford’s Elias ranking this season will be a wake-up call for the Rays and increases the chance that he is traded between now and next year’s trade deadline.

*If a team loses a Type A player in free agency they will receive the other team’s first-round pick the next year and a compensatory pick between the first and second-round. If a team loses a Type B player in free agency they will only receive the compensatory pick. If a team has one of the top 15 picks in the draft, it is protected. So if a team with a top-15 pick signs a Type A free agent, they would not lose their first-round selection. Rather, they would have to surrender their second-round selection. Also, things get a bit more complicated if a team signs more than one Type A free agent.

One Year Ago On Rays Index

The Professor — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 14:00:18 +0000

One year ago on Rays Index we wrote about Evan Longoria being named the AL Rookie of the Year in a unanimous vote.

Evan Longoria Wins AL Rookie Of The Year Award [Rays Index]

2010 Options: Crawford Yes, Shouse And Zaun No; Rays Claim Ramirez Off Waivers

The Professor — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 20:57:38 +0000

The Rays made several moves today including picking up Carl Crawford’s option. The team also decided not to puck up the options for Gregg Zaun and Brian Shouse. None of these moves are surprising, however there was some suggestion that the Rays could have picked up Zaun’s option.

In addition, the Rays claimed pitcher Ramon Ramirez off of waivers from the Reds.

Crawford will make at least $10 million in 2010 depending on escalators that were built into his original deal. He could make as much as $11.5 million.

Zaun could still re-sign with the Rays at a rate cheaper than the $2.0 million option.

Ramirez is a 27-year old righty that has made 16 appearances (4 starts) in the last two years with the Reds. He has thrown 39.1 innings with 29 strikeouts, 15 walks and a 2.97 ERA (4.60 FIP).

Free Agency: Measuring How Well Rays Play The Market

The Professor — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 12:46:17 +0000

Andrew Friedman and Co. are about to enter their fifth Hot Stove Season. Let’s take a look at the four previous seasons and see just how well the Rays fared with their free agent signings.

Using Fangraphs‘ WAR Value system, we looked at every player that has been signed (as free agents or claimed on waivers) by the Rays since Friedman took over the front office, and determined the on-field production of each player while they played for the Rays. We then compared this production (in dollars) to the salaries* paid to each player by the Rays.

First, let’s look at the Rays year-by-year breakdown…

A few notes on the above table…

Production and salary values for each season include every player with a major league contract on that year’s roster that was signed as a free agent (or claimed off waivers) since October, 2005.
Since Friedman and Co. took over, the Rays have paid approximately $70.3 million in salaries to free agents. Those players have been worth $105.3 million in WAR value on the field.
2009 marked Friedman’s first season in which free agents were overpaid, receiving approximately $10.6 million in production less than what they paid. Of course, a good chunk of that can be blamed on the Pat Burrell signing.

Now let’s look at the best and worst signings by Friedman and Co. in terms of salary and production…

A few notes on the above table…

Production and salaries include each player’s entire tenure with the Rays since being signed as a free agent.
Salaries for Akinori Iwamura and Shinji Mori include the posting fees ($4.6M and $1.0M respectively) the Rays paid to each player’s Japanese club for the exclusive rights to negotiate with each player.
The two most valuable signings have been Carlos Pena and Aki Iwamura.
The two least valuable signings have been Pat Burrell and Troy Percival.
While we certainly cannot discount the value of Carlos Pena, it is worth noting that if you remove Pena’s $39.1 million value, the remaining free agent signings have a negative value. In other words, outside of Pena, the Rays have overpaid free agents by approximately $4.0 million.
Ty Wigginton was traded for Dan Wheeler in 2007. Since the trade, the Rays have paid Wheeler $6.7 million in salary. His production for the Rays has been worth $3.2 million, giving Wheeler a Value of -$3.5 million. If this is included in Wigginton’s value, his signing was actually worth $2.1 million for the Rays and brings the total value down to $31.6 million.

Like any team, there have been some good signings and some bad signings. Of course the sycophants love to talk about Carlos Pena and Aki Iwamura and Eric Hinske and Gabe Kapler as evidence of how smart the Rays front is. Meanwhile, the haters love to talk about Troy Percival and Pat Burrell and Shinji Mori, as evidence of the team’s free agency ineptitude. The truth is somewhere in between.

* In certain cases we had to estimate prorated salaries. Salaries also include contract extensions.

The Professor Talks…Buccaneers Football?

The Professor — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 22:07:05 +0000

With the baseball season now officially over, my 4-year contract with RaysIndex.com has now expired. While we continue to discuss what role I will have around here moving forward, I have stepped away from baseball for the moment and made my debut today over at Joe Bucs Fan. Some would call this a negotiation ploy. I’ll let you decide.

From The Professor’s Desk … [Joe Bucs Fan]

Two Years Ago On Rays Index

The Professor — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 14:00:37 +0000

Two years ago on Rays Index we were amazed by the championship-like celebration planned for the unveiling of their new uniforms.

The Devil Rays Know How To Be Overdramatic [Rays Index]