Thank you, Mr. Leiweke

Bryan Colangelo maintaining his role as president of the club does not, for a minute, take any joy away from his firing as the GM of the club.  The man was flat-out incompetent in his role as continually pointed out by this space since the last four years, and it took Tim Leiweke about five minutes to see through the roster, the “organic growth”, and the marketing material that the organization and media had bought into.  For that I am very thankful.  The interview is below, but here’s a couple great quotes:

First and foremost, we have to figure out consistently and how to win long-term.  I guess I referred to it earlier today as being a Seven Eleven.  Good enough to maybe be in the 7th or 8th spot and maybe make the playoffs, but never good enough to win.

I do like the fact that we’re going to have a GM with a fresh view of the world, with a fresh view of the world, with a fresh view of this roster, with a fresh view of what it is we need to do to be competitive long-term.

This was the essence of building under Bryan Colangelo.  He might’ve even gotten us into the playoffs next year, but just like in 2008, it doesn’t mean anything because you’re stuck in doldrums.

Obstruction for new GM

Retaining the business-specific role in the organization is makes no matter, and can only benefit the Raptors.  The only negative I can potentially see coming from it is if the incoming GM is uncomfortable working with him.  It’s a distinct possibility, but given the clarity with which Leiweke has defined Colangelo’s new role and the explicit nature in which he’s stated the new GM’s authority puts me at ease.  Simply put, if the new GM feels Colangelo is hampering him, Colangelo will be fired from his new flimsy role as well.  Fear not.  Leiweke made no secret of saying that if he had to draw it up from scratch, this is not the ideal structure:

This is based, in part, on timing, this is based, in part, on the option that he had. This is based, in part, that he’s here already…Is this the way I’d draw it up on a piece of paper if we’d started fresh? Probably not, but that’s not an option.

Direction of Team

As Leiweke has stated in the interview below, he wants the new GM to come in with a “fresh perspective” and evaluate this roster for what it is, not what it is sold to the fans as.  The salary situation, lack of a draft pick, and the questionable roster talent does not make this job easy, and the only course of action is to go there with an unbiased mind and do a keep or cull based on impartial analysis.  It’s Step 1.  Everything else comes after.  The good part about this situation is that this keeping/culling will be done by a man who, as Leiweke explicitly said in the interview below, does not hold players in high regard just because they’re the ones who brought them in.

I have a bit of a disagreement on the current status of the organization and this roster. I guess I don’t think we’re right there. I don’t think we’re a piece away, I think we have work to do. I think in the last five years we’ve made mistakes. We’re a team knocking on the luxury tax that has zero draft picks this year, and we have to improve on this roster but we don’t have a lot of resources to do it. I find it ironic that people think that that, at the end of the day, would give me a high degree of comfort. That said, Bryan has a different opinion and I respect that opinion, but somebody had to make a decision and someone did.

We got to find somebody that is extremely good and rational at looking at this roster and reaching the right conclusions about who’s going to work and who’s not going to work. Sometimes you got to find a new set of eyes and a new opinion in order to judge a roster and not be personal about a player because you chose him. Or you used the first pick in the first round to pick a player. Sometimes it’s easier for a guy coming in that doesn’t have that loyalty, and doesn’t have the burden of being the guy that made that decision, you reach better conclusion at times on how needs to stay and who needs to go.

We want someone that is not afraid of making trades, we want someone that is not burderend by ultimately saying, ‘God, I feel bad about making this move because I brought this guy into the organization’.

Refreshing stuff, eh?

Masai Ujiri back in Toronto as the new GM?

Couldn’t care less that the Raptors let him walk away and now may want him back. Remember, not valuing him was Bryan Colangelo’s decision and most basketball decisions he made were bad.  I like the way the Denver team is built and even though his track record isn’t extensive, it’s filled with moves that accumulate to something, rather than blindly running into walls. Also, he did well on the ‘Melo trade.  Right now, I have faith that Leiweke will make the right hire.

Don’t be fooled by the search firm

The firm the Raptors have hired to look for a GM should not be read as the firm picking the GM, or even suggesting a candidate.  It’s due diligence being done on the part of MLSE so they don’t look like Leiweke’s bringing in a pre-handpicked candidate.  Think of it as analytics for GM hiring, you need someone to crunch over resumes, do filtering based on transactions and come up with a “statistically” relevant list of candidates.  This is speculation, but I find it very hard to believe that Leiweke doesn’t have someone very particular in mind for the role.  I mean, if Phil Jackson wanted the job, he’d have it no matter what the firm thought.

The 13th pick is available, the Raptors should select Dennis Schroeder

DX :: YouTube He’s a good-shooting point guard that can change speeds, read the defense well, and get teammates involved. I project him to be a better version of Aaron Brooks, and if things go well, a Ty Lawson type player.  He’ll address the dire three-point shooting need which was made worse by Calderon leaving, and can up the tempo without being erratic.  You might be wondering where we get this pick from, well, Dallas is looking to off-load theirs.

I would not be surprised if the Raptors acquire a pick, and Leiweke as much stated the importance of the draft:

We need somebody that understands drafting and development well, we cannot make bad decision with our draft picks going forward. The great organizations maximize their good draft picks when they get him, and if you don’t want to be drafting in the top of the first round each and every year, you better make sure you do a great job when you’re there and get out of it. There’s a lot of organizations like OKC and San Antonio that I have a lot of respect for because when they had those high picks, they used them extremely well and they weren’t back in that position for a long period time. That’s what we need to do.

TSN Radio is better than the Fan 590 (or whatever they call it now)

Both teams can’t be bothered to given an NBA update, but all in all, the hosts on TSN Radio is, in my opinion, are superior, more objective, and frankly better than what the Fan offers.  Particularly, I’m a fan of David Naylor in the evenings and do give him a listen now that my free XM Radio period has run out. Good stuff.

 Tim Leiweke Interview Audio

Again, this is from TSN Radio.

The interview is on iTunes and you can also download the file (12:48, 12 MB). Or just listen below:

Kyle Lowry in. A future first round pick gone.

While Lowry was young-ish at 26, the sacrificing of a first round pick that was only top-three protected was a clear statement that the team expected to make the playoffs. Otherwise, why sacrifice a cost-controlled rookie asset (or potential trade chip) for what would then amount to one ‘meaningful’ year of Lowry, whose deal had just two seasons left at the time.

It also signaled the end of Jose Calderon’s tenure as the franchise’s sometimes-starter, sometimes-challenged, never-defeated point guard. Calderon would later be moved as part of the three-team trade that brought Rudy Gay to Toronto, a move that seems unlikely without the Lowry acquisition.

The Lowry deal also paved the way for another major move, as the Houston Rockets packaged that Raptor draft pick with other assets to pry James Harden from the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Nearly a year late, we now know that the pick dealt for Lowry will be the 12th overall selection in the 2013 NBA Draft. That pick, depending on where you look, is pegged to be Kelly Olynyk, Dennis Schroeder or Steven Adams. Plenty will change between now and the draft at the end of June, but we at least know what the compensation was in these deals.

So roughly 10 months later, I asked a Rockets and Thunder blogger to each update their take on the trade(s). My Raptors perspective follows.

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The Deals
Trade 1
Raptors trade Gary Forbes and 2013 #12 pick for Kyle Lowry.

Trade 2
Rockets trade 2013 #12 pick (from TOR), 2013 #32 pick (from Cha, from OKC, from Bos), future top-20 protected 1st round pick (from Dal), Kevin Martin and Jeremy Lamb for James Harden, Cole Aldrich, Daequan Cook and Lazar Hayward.

The Rockets
Michael Pina, of Red 94, TrueHoop’s Houston Rockets blog:

Trade 1: It’s understated how important this trade was for Houston. If the Rockets never acquire that lottery pick from Toronto (which looked a lot more appetizing when the deal was made), they aren’t able to compile a package juicy enough to pry James Harden from the comforts of Oklahoma City.

Trade 2: Armchair quarterbacking a trade that occurred amidst so many questions, after many of those questions have been answered, can be obnoxious. But it’s just so tough to imagine the Thunder going through with this trade if they knew James Harden had top-10 talent, Serge Ibaka had a disappointing ceiling, the “lottery pick” from Toronto would actually be outside the top 10 in a shallow talent pool, and, getting extra snarky, Russell Westbrook would hurt his knee in the first round of the playoffs (which NEVER HAPPENS if the Thunder kept Harden, since it occurred against the very team Harden led to the playoffs).

The Thunder
Royce Young, of Daily Thunder, TrueHoop’s Oklahoma City Thunder blog.

Obviously the Thunder were hoping for better than No. 12 when they dealt Harden. And while it certainly diminishes OKC’s return for a true star even more, it’s far too early to judge the trade completely. We don’t know what Jeremy Lamb will be, and we don’t know what the player OKC picks will be. Right now it doesn’t look like the Thunder got enough for Harden. But we all might feel differently about that three years from now. Fans and media aren’t normally that patient, but the Thunder organization is.

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The Raptors
The Raptors ended up dealing Gary Forbes and the 12th overall pick this year for Kyle Lowry. That is, unquestionably, a deal I’d make over and over again. Lowry had an up-and-down year and was quite polarizing for the fanbase, in part because of his tumultuous play and in part because he took the reigns from a man that would be sainted if Toronto were the Vatican.

Calling Lowry’s season anything but a bit disappointing would be too cheery. He certainly wasn’t terrible, but his per-36 scoring was down, as were his shooting percentages across the board. His rebounding and playmaking made small gains and his turnovers decreased, but his defense also didn’t match the reputation he came in with.

In fact, offensively I wasn’t too disappointed with the man formerly known as KLOE – he didn’t hit the expectations that were based on priced-in improvement, and he still exhibits an inability to score and facilitate at the same time. But his role changed dramatically twice during the season, once when he came off the bench after injury and again when Rudy Gay was acquired. You can understand inconsistency with changing parameters of play, and the final numbers were just fine. That consistency issue won’t be forgiven next year though with a (hopefully) more stable situation

Defensively, however, I was more disappointed. This article isn’t meant as a full evaluation of Lowry, but it warrants mentioning that the “bulldog” seemed far more often to be chasing cars than protecting the yard. That is, he’s a risk-taker, which is fine when you have strong help defenders behind you (only Amir Johnson probably counts in this regard) but can be harmful when teammates have to help beyond their comfort zone to account for your cheating. At times, Lowry’s defense was suffocating and created turnovers. Other times, his gambles left the Raptors without numbers or scrambling to recover. Like with his offense, finding consistency will be the key moving forward.

But this is about the trade, and it’d be tough to argue Lowry wasn’t and isn’t still worth a 12th overall pick. Based on Win Shares, he was worth roughly $10M this season. Win Shares are a sketchy stat to take at face value, but the fact that this “value” far outstrips his $5.75M salary confirms that he was a bargain. He’s only on the books for $6.2M this coming season, another discounted year in financial terms. As a refernce point, only four rookies in the past three years have ‘earned’ that dollar amount based on win shares.

The 12th overall pick might end up being a usable rotation piece. That’s entirely possible, and as Royce pointed out above, you can never fully evaluate a trade until much later. But it’s difficult to think of a scenario in which two discounted years of Lowry plus the opportunity to sign him to a longer deal (assuming he settles and the new GM likes him) wasn’t worth a maybe-a-rotation-guy pick. And if it turns out to be a stud in five years, you can’t really fault the team for not seeing it coming, otherwise that player would have went earlier, anyway.

It’s unfortunate that Lowry didn’t make the jump to elite point guard as some where hoping. He was 23rd among “guards” in win shares, eighth in assists per 36 minutes, fifth in rebounds per 36 minutes, 17th in PER and 35th in true shooting percentage. Those are strong rankings but not “irreplaceable,” making the incoming GM’s decision about the long-term point guard position a tough one, although not one he has to make immediately.

Kyle Lowry was a mild disappointment this year, sure. But if you take the positive signs he shows, price in some maturity and consistency with a more stable environment, and look at the names in the late lottery, it’s a very tough argument that the Raptors didn’t make out well here. The Rockets used that asset well, and credit to them for that, but this is one move Bryan Colangelo can’t be criticized for on his way out the door.

Source

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Grab the iTunes feed or the plain old feed. You can also download the file (40:28, 37 MB). Or just listen below:

Source

Colangelo isn’t “ticked” as Leiweke described, but is “disappointed” that he didn’t get to see the job through. “Ticked off isn’t the right terminology…it’s a mischaracterization”. Says the team is “well on its way to being competitive”. He doesn’t believe that he’s completely being left out of the basketball side (as Leiweke suggested), but that his input may be sought and he’s glad to give it. Basically, he’s finding a way to soften the blow for him. Says he’s in the “process of constructing businesses” now more than the “process of constructing basketball teams”.

Would another GM job interest you, if it opens up?

“I’m committed….but I have an NBA out”. So, Leiweke has said he can leave if he finds a real GM job, but he says his “focus and commitment is to the Toronto Raptors”. Doesn’t see this situation as a bad situation and says that “there was steady growth but maybe that growth wasn’t fast enough”. Says, “I’m certainly not going to get in the way of the new GM”.

Will it be difficult if new GM says “amnesty Fields” or something like that? (Grange asked this question and Colangelo shot back saying you can’t amnesty Fields)

“Whatever the basketball matter is, I hope that my opinion will be asked” but the decision will rest on somebody else. “I’ve been known as a guy who zigs when everyone else is zagging” and that wont’ change. He’s saying that he brings something to the table, and hopefully people will make use of his opinion.

His new role:

Says the deal between the MLSE and the NBA needs to be revamped, and that’s something he will be focusing on now and he “hasn’t had time to focus on that in the past”. He’s going to busy with Board of Canada Basketball, grassroot level initiatives. He’s talking about women’s basketball, growth of the game, etc. All the stuff that’s Canada-specific more than the Raptors, really. He’ll be looking into new practice facilities and that’s also something he “didn’t have time before to look at”, but now does. “I’m pretty good at projects”, says Colangelo, and he’s going to make the “best damn practice facility in the League”

I’m losing interest in this presser…

If you were a guy looking for a GM job, would you want to take a job where former GM is sitting in the next office

“When I’m involved with something, I’m going to put everything into it. If there are parameters within it, I will stick to those parameters…I probably know all the candidates, and some of them I would be able to work with in a glowing fashion…the bottom line is that if I get in the way, I’m not going to be around…I’m not going to run the new guy over…The new guy will appreciate that I’m there and in his corner”

Were you reluctant to focus on the business side exclusively now?

“The role will be more than just focusing on business, and I will guide if asked”. BC’s really trying to frame this in a way where it looks like his basketball opinion still matters.

What do you think of hiring an outside firm to make the hire?

“I have no problem with it….you’ll have to ask Tim what the process was in making that decision…if they need me, I will give my input and opinion there”.

Andrea Bargnani, if he was better would this be different.

“I’m not sure I would [handle it differently]. Maybe I would’ve traded him before he got hurt..but you can’t control the injury aspect”. “A change of scenery is probably the best thing for both sides”, regarding Andrea.

Any good luck charm tonight (lottery)?

There are pros and cons to getting in the top three (basically, saying it’s a weak draft). “Hopefully this is the last time we’re there in a long time…I don’t think Tim needs to be faulted for making that decision (sending him to lottery)”

Says people have called him trying to get a foot in the door for the new GM job.

What if coin flip had gone your way (Terrence Ross)?

“With one less win, we would’ve been in a position to draft at 7, and a coin toss for 6″. Says he was targeting Damian Lillard and Harrison Barnes. Where are those idiots who were getting excited about winning meaningless games. Show yourselves.

You going to be vocal about Casey staying on?

“No, if I’m asked my opinion I’ll give it, but that’s a decision the new guy will have to make.”

Is Stefanski capable of being the GM?

“Is Stefanski capable of being a #1. Yes.”