Aluminium & Raw Materials

Coal tar pitch is more available now: Carbon Analysis

Mon, 09 Nov 2009 00:00:00 GMT

Smelters' cutbacks in the world outside China led to lower demand and greater availability of coal tar pitch. The question is now whether a surge in smelting activity in China will eventually bring tightness to the market.

Prices are stuck in a sideways range: Market Summary and Analysis

Mon, 09 Nov 2009 00:00:00 GMT

The LME is going through a quiet period, with little fund and minimal producers' hedging activity.

Selected Demand Indicators

Mon, 09 Nov 2009 00:00:00 GMT

Selected demand indicators for the primary aluminium market.

Weekly Statistical Data Spreadsheets

Mon, 09 Nov 2009 00:00:00 GMT

Download links for all the statistical data published with the weekly report.

Weekly Technical Analysis

Mon, 09 Nov 2009 00:00:00 GMT

Technical analysis of the LME aluminium market.

Yunnan province may see 1m tpy smelter: Supply and Demand Analysis

Mon, 09 Nov 2009 00:00:00 GMT

In a market characterised by excess capacity, projects continue to proliferate in China and India.

Bauxite shipments from Kamsar to fall: Alumina Analysis

Mon, 02 Nov 2009 00:00:00 GMT

The spot price range on the free market narrowed from US$290-325/tonne to US$295-315/tonne during late October, on limited business.

Fundamentals are still the main drivers of LME prices

Mon, 02 Nov 2009 00:00:00 GMT

With very little variations in the fundamental picture for most LME metals, recent price strength has been attributed to external factors, including weakness in the US dollar, performance of equity, other commodities, and more importantly, funds’ activity. Although all these factors have definitely played a role in determining prices on the LME lately, does this means that fundamentals are not longer an important factor for price formation?

Middle Export market doing well: Supply and Demand Analysis

Mon, 02 Nov 2009 00:00:00 GMT

The Euro-Zone PMI peaked above 50 for the first time in 15 months in September, suggesting parts of the trading bloc are becoming more bullish.

Price falls towards $1,900/tonne: Market Summary and Analysis

Mon, 02 Nov 2009 00:00:00 GMT

After another rally attempt fizzled towards the end of last week, 3-month aluminium descended to $1,900/tonne to close at $1,910 today. This is approximately where it had been prior to US dollar driven rally that saw it peak at just above $2,000/tonne last week.

Selected Demand Indicators

Mon, 02 Nov 2009 00:00:00 GMT

Selected demand indicators for the primary aluminium market.

Weekly Statistical Data Spreadsheets

Mon, 02 Nov 2009 00:00:00 GMT

Download links for all the statistical data published with the weekly report.

Weekly Technical Analysis

Mon, 02 Nov 2009 00:00:00 GMT

Technical analysis of the LME aluminium market.

Panamax rates surge: Freight Analysis

Mon, 26 Oct 2009 00:00:00 GMT

The BDI seen another surge over the last few weeks on the back of a pick-up in Panamax rates, while Handymax rates stagnated. The Panamax rates surge is due to both a continued shortage of tonnage in the Atlantic and increased congestion and activity in the Pacific on continued iron imports into China, grain trade and increased demand for shipments to smaller ports.

Price above $2,000/tonne again: Market Summary and Analysis

Mon, 26 Oct 2009 00:00:00 GMT

After a false rally on Tuesday, the 3-month aluminium price saw one of its biggest surges in recent months to gain $82/tonne in a day on Thursday to $1,984/tonne. Prices pushed above $2,000/tonne in today’s ring trading, but have fallen back in the after market.

Selected Demand Indicators

Mon, 26 Oct 2009 00:00:00 GMT

Selected demand indicators for the primary aluminium market.

We were almost spot on with our Q3 forecast: Supply and Demand Analysis

Mon, 26 Oct 2009 00:00:00 GMT

New IAI production data for Q3 almost matched our forecast for the same period. The production data, which covers almost all of the non-Chinese smelters, stated Q3 production at 5.798m tonnes. We had forecast just over 5.794m tonnes. We were off by the equivalent of 1hr and 13mins at the average Q3 daily production rate of 63,023 tonnes/day for the IAI tracked smelters.

Weekly Statistical Data Spreadsheets

Mon, 26 Oct 2009 00:00:00 GMT

Download links for all the statistical data published with the weekly report.

Weekly Technical Analysis

Mon, 26 Oct 2009 00:00:00 GMT

Last week we warned that aluminium could be positioning itself for a fresh run higher having spent a decent period of time consolidating in the $1,860-1,970/tonne sideways channel since mid-August.

A Chinese import surprise: Supply and Demand Analysis

Mon, 19 Oct 2009 00:00:00 GMT

Nalco’s plan to expand capacity by 1.5m tpy faces challenges. The company is currently studying three 500,000 tonne smelters. Its South African project would face the same power problems as other producers and its Indonesian project is being hampered by coal supply and infrastructure access problems.Only its Iranian project seems to be highly likely at the present time.

Anglesey biomass plan submitted: Electricity Analysis

Mon, 19 Oct 2009 00:00:00 GMT

Eskom is in negotiations with BHP Billtion to change its power deal with the company from a metal-linked one to a standard tariff. As we have discussed before it is unlikely the power company will lose out on this change as aluminium prices are unlikely to hit mid-2008 levels until at least 2012.

Prices sticking to $1,900/tonne: Market Summary and Analysis

Mon, 19 Oct 2009 00:00:00 GMT

Strong oil prices and a weak dollar have been supporting aluminium spot and forward prices in an inactive market. Indeed, there has been little trading activity as shown by thin volumes and low volatility. The uptick in open interest is most likely down to the creation of both short and long positions as there is uncertainty in the market as to where the price is heading in the near term.

Weekly Statistical Data Spreadsheets

Mon, 19 Oct 2009 00:00:00 GMT

Download links for all the statistical data published with the weekly report.

Weekly Technical Analysis

Mon, 19 Oct 2009 00:00:00 GMT

Analysis of the stochastics, relative strength, volume, bollinger bands and other technical indicators.

6063 billet premiums jump on tight spot market: Supply and Demand Analysis

Mon, 12 Oct 2009 00:00:00 GMT

There has been little activity on the demand side for primary aluminium for some time. Reflecting this, premiums in the CIS, Europe (except for billet premiums) and North American have been stagnating and are not expected to see much upside for the remainder of the year.

Market calms towards end of the week as US Dollar weakness gives price support: Market Summary and Analysis

Mon, 12 Oct 2009 00:00:00 GMT

The surprise announcement by Alcoa that it had returned to profitability in Q3 helped the price move upwards, but most of the strength came from continued dollar weakness. This led the 3-month aluminium price buck short term expectations and close at $1,902/tonne on Friday.

Spec relaxation is paying-off: Carbon Analysis

Mon, 12 Oct 2009 00:00:00 GMT

The collapse of the aluminium price last year led aluminium producers to both cut production and to evaluate their production costs.

Weekly Statistical Data Spreadsheets

Mon, 12 Oct 2009 00:00:00 GMT

Download links for all the statistical data published with the weekly report.

Weekly Technical Analysis

Mon, 12 Oct 2009 00:00:00 GMT

Analysis of the stochastics, relative strength, volume, bollinger bands and other technical indicators.