Gavin Smith, Joe Sebok and Jeff Madsen have agreed on a prop bet sicker than any prop bet to date. It’s a last longer bet for the upcoming LAPC in Los Angeles. First person to bust has to get the faces of the other 2 tattooed on his body, while the 2nd to bust only needs to get the face of the winner of the prop bet tattooed on his body.

I’m roothing for Gavin Smith to TID.

No, you’d NEVER take either of those lines, and nobody suggested otherwise. You’d raise (as he did) all the time in a tourney like this, but then when she puts in the 3rd raise I prefer calling to putting in a 4th raise (because you’ve defined your hand so narrowly that you’re only likely to get further action from hands that have you in bad shape)….but after after 2 more raises for 100+ blinds how much value do you think small trips still has?

Seriously, you sound like a guy who could never fold KK preflop because “there’s only one better hand” – which is the right play in a typical tourney given the number of blinds in play after the very beginning – but at the very beginning, or in a cash game with hundreds of blinds, putting in 5 raises with KK is suicide because you’re only getting called, let alone raised, by one hand, and you chase out all the value you get from all inferior hands.

Sorry, I thought they were more than 100bb deep – agree if they were only 30-50bb that there was no way to get away from the hand. But 100+, very reckless to bust here.

> was running the numbers on the “limited” range you proposed

It was the maximum possible range. The realistic range probably excludes most of those flush draw hands, and therefore a greater percentage of hands that have you crushed.

Again, if this was a hand that came up after they’d been playing HU for an hour, it would be a completely normal cooler. But you have to significantly restrict your realistic range for players willing to 4bet plus on that board, and I really think his trips hand has basically the same value, as played, as AK high.

There’s simply no value in getting in a raising war – you’re never called by hands that don’t crush you, and you chase away the few hands you beat (given the prior action already) which you have drawing very thin but could extract additional value from.

You can really tell that you don’t play cash HU if you think that’s the case.

This wasn’t a 100+bb deep cash game. This was a tournament, with a turbo structure. Huge difference (which I do indeed recognize). I don’t play heads-up cash, but I have played deep-ish-stacked HU sngs, and I can fold big hands in marginal spots early in the tournament, knowing that I can find better spots later on.

That’s the most expansive range imaginable, and at best you’re almost exactly a coinflip.

I was running the numbers on the “limited” range you proposed. If you want we can narrow the range down to JJ, 44, and 74+, and then say “Oh for sure it’s a fold.” But that’s not really a real-world scenario.

You asked when to slow down? By calling instead of putting in a 4th bet, because you’re either way ahead or way behind, and never getting called or pushed by the hands you have the most equity against.

Fair enough. So you check-call 25k on the flop, then, like 30k on the turn, and 60k on the river? That way you lose the hand, but you leave yourself with about 140k (70 bbs) and a greater than 4:1 chip disadvantage going into the second hand. I don’t disagree with this plan of attack, actually. It gives you a chance to take the pot away from your opponent (should, say, a third club appear on 4th or 5th street), and it limits your losses when you’re outkicked.

If you’re going to stack off HU every time you hit trips, no kicker, no matter how deep you are, I’d be happy to play “HU for Rollz” as you indicated. Any time, my friend.

Fair enough. But the other side of that particular coin is this: are *you* going to check-call — or bet-fold — every time *you* flop trips low-kicker, in a turbo HU tournament? That’s way too exploitable, if you ask me.

If I’m in Kevin’s seat, in this hand, I think I can find a fold. Sometimes. But I have to be pretty sure of my read to do that.

You can really tell that you don’t play cash HU if you think that’s the case. That’s the most expansive range imaginable, and at best you’re almost exactly a coinflip.

You asked when to slow down? By calling instead of putting in a 4th bet, because you’re either way ahead or way behind, and never getting called or pushed by the hands you have the most equity against.

If you’re going to stack off HU every time you hit trips, no kicker, no matter how deep you are, I’d be happy to play “HU for Rollz” as you indicated. Any time, my friend.

Kevin played great Heads Up poker (at least from what I saw in the Final 4)

You’re right: Kevin played great all day. I watched most of his matches from the round of 16 on, and he fought the good fight all day long. Even when he was down and nearly out. His final hand was just a cooler. No doubt about it.

Here’s *your* range, and how it does against Kevin’s hand:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.737% 37.29% 15.45% 28795 11928.50 { 6s4h }
Hand 1: 47.263% 31.82% 15.45% 24568 11928.50 { JJ+, 44, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, A4s, Ac3c, Ac2c, KcQc, K4s, Q4s, J4s, T4s, 94s, 84s, 74s, 64s, 54s, 42s+, A4o, K4o, Q4o, J4o, T4o, 94o, 84o, 74o, 64o, 54o, 42o+ }

My question to you is this: when do YOU find the fold? Jenna bet 4k, Kevin raised to 11k, and Jenna reraised to 25k. Do you fold here if you’re Kevin? You flopped trips in a heads-up pot, and you have (according to your own range above), 52.737% equity. If your answer is “yes”, then please bring your entire life savings over to my house, and we’ll play heads-up until it’s all mine.

- 4x
- JJ and J4
- two clubs that are above a Jack and, if you want to be very inclusive, any Ax club hands.
- and, far less likely but perhaps not impossible, QQ, KK and AA.

There’s zero chance she just has a jack there. Zero. So delete them from your range, and delete all two club hands that don’t also have overcards, because she never has those hands there either.

It’s a terrible call, period. But everyone makes mistakes over long tourneys and he should be lauded for making it that far, so I don’t want to take away from that.

Kevin played great Heads Up poker (at least from what I saw in the Final 4) and getting it in with 64 on the J44 flop, first hand or not, is standard.

Also, yes it is a sick cooler.

Anyone who has played at least a bit of Heads Up poker would get it in here on the flop and the idea of folding is laughable.