February 9, 2012

In 2009, Japan began offering commercial solutions for residential combined heat and power (resCHP) fuel cells with its ENE-FARM project.  Korea has followed suit with hundreds of test trials for its Residential CHPs Monitoring Project.  Meanwhile, China has been driving research and innovation in fuel cell technology through government, academic, and enterprise initiatives, focusing, for the most part, on fuel cell transportation.  Although their programs are primarily aimed at meeting increased demand for residential energy and complying with national policies for a greener society, providers in these countries also hope to become the global leaders in this arena – both in terms of technology development and price.  According to a recent report from Pike Research, prices for fuel cell-based systems, across a range of applications, are expected to decline significantly in the next few years, removing a critical barrier to adoption.

The cleantech market intelligence firm forecasts that the market for fuel cells in Asia Pacific will reach $6.7 billion by 2017, up from just $52.8 million in 2011.

“To date, the majority of fuel cell technology development for residences in Asia Pacific has centered on resCHP,” says senior analyst Andy Bae.  “The Japanese fuel cell players are already in the commercial phase, and Korean providers also have concrete market entry plans to commercialize resCHP and off-grid power plants.  Prices have been declining steadily, and manufacturers’ pricing strategies are expected to result in further decreases.”

While stationary fuel cells represent the largest segment for the fuel cell market in the region, fuel cell vehicles and fuel cells for portable power applications – particularly consumer electronics – hold strong potential as well.  Interest in fuel cell vehicles from government and industry players, including automobile component makers, in Japan, Korea, and China is strong and growing.  Auto OEMs and governments have coalesced around 2015 as the date for the first commercial fuel cell vehicles to reach the market.  Consequently, 2012-2015 will be an important period for those looking to develop leadership in the sector.

Pike Research’s report, “Fuel Cells in Asia Pacific”, provides insight into fuel cell industry dynamics, market trends, and technology innovations for three main sectors:  stationary fuel cells, fuel cell vehicles, and fuel cells for portable power applications in the Asia Pacific region, concentrating on China, Japan, and Korea.  Market forecasts through 2017 are included for unit shipments and revenue, segmented by key countries and application areas.  An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the firm’s website.

Contact: Richard Martin

+1 303 997 7609

press@pikeresearch.com

February 8, 2012

Small-scale wind power has a long history of successful development in both Western Europe and the United States.  During the 18th and 19th century, it is estimated that some 100,000 windmills were scattered throughout Europe.  After wind power was largely displaced by steam engines and other sources of mechanical power in Europe, America became fertile soil for the next generation of wind power technology, with farmers and rural communities relying upon the technology.  More recently, interest in wind power and other forms of renewable distributed energy generation has revived; large corporate investment has led to the development of larger wind turbines and utility-scale wind farms, but consumer demand is driving the growth of the small wind power market as well.  Today, according to a recent report from Pike Research, increased government incentives, the desire for customer and community ownership of power generation, and the recognition that investment in small wind turbines can be an enduring source of economic development for the rural locales in which they are typically deployed are driving accelerating growth for the small wind power market.

The cleantech market intelligence firm forecasts that global revenues for small wind systems will more than double between 2010 and 2015, rising from $255 million to $634 million during that period.

“Despite the rapid drop in solar photovoltaics (PV) prices over the last three years, small wind turbines are still a more cost effective source for distributed renewable energy in many parts of the world,” says senior analyst Peter Asmus.  “Communities are recognizing the benefits of renewable distributed generation for local economies, particularly in rural areas or underdeveloped regions with abundant local resources.  Developing those resources benefits local economies by keeping the dollars spent on energy in the community and creating jobs and possible export revenue.”

One increasingly popular business model in the wind industry is known as “community wind,” which refers to wind generation assets that are owned by a group of local people – usually farmers and business people, and sometimes the municipality – who create a Limited Liability Corporation (LLC) that then enters into a power purchase agreement (PPA) with the local utility.  Common in parts of Europe such as Denmark and Germany, community wind is emerging in rural, windy areas of the United States as a vehicle for economic development, especially in Minnesota and Iowa.

Pike Research’s report, “Small Wind Power”, examines the global market for small wind power systems including the equipment, components, and installation and service models to enable distributed energy generation from small wind turbines.  The report provides a comprehensive examination of industry growth drivers, technology issues, regulatory frameworks, financing structures, and the competitive landscape.  Global market forecasts, segmented by world region, extend through 2015. An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the firm’s website.

Contact: Richard Martin

+1 303 997 7609

press@pikeresearch.com

February 8, 2012

The marine and hydrokinetic industry, which aims to harness various marine and hydrokinetic resources including ocean waves, tidal streams, river flows, ocean currents, and ocean thermal differences for power generation, stands at a critical point.  The technologies are improving, major energy companies and utilities are making investments, industry associations are gaining lobbying power, and governments are completing or updating their country-level deployment targets and roadmaps, enacting competitive financial incentives, and (in many cases) garnering public support.  But now the industry must deliver on its promise or risk losing investor interest and political support.  Whether the industry can reach the same level of success as other renewable energy sectors, such as wind power, depends on a host of significant challenges across the technology/policy/finance spectrum – most of which should play out over the next five years.  According to a new report from Pike Research, the marine and hydrokinetic market should see robust growth in capacity in that period, increasing from 760 megawatts (MW) in 2012 to 5.5 gigawatts (GW) in 2017.  That will translate into total revenue from hydrokinetic and marine power generation deployed in North America of $161.2 million in 2017, the cleantech market intelligence firm forecasts.

“The next six years will see the launch of a number of ‘Phase 1’ early deployments that have the potential to be scaled up significantly toward the end of the decade,” says research analyst Dexter Gauntlett.  “Although wave energy has received the most press coverage, our research shows that tidal energy is shaping up to be the lower cost option, and therefore the closest to large-scale deployment.”

By 2017, Pike Research forecasts, worldwide tidal stream capacity will reach 2.4 GW.  The top-producing countries will be South Korea (750 MW), the United Kingdom (529 MW), and Canada (300 MW), followed by India, China, New Zealand (200MW each), and Australia (100MW).  In terms of overall support for marine and hydrokinetic technologies, the United Kingdom is the clear leader.  The clearest reason why Europe (specifically the United Kingdom) is leading the rest of the world in marine energy is because it has the world’s only grid-connected, multi-berth, open sea test facilities for wave and tidal marine energy devices.

Pike Research’s report, “Hydrokinetic and Ocean Energy”, analyzes the global market opportunities to harness marine and hydrokinetic technologies for power generation.  The study examines multiple MHK technologies including ocean wave, tidal stream, river hydrokinetic, ocean current, and ocean thermal technologies, assessing the relative advantages and disadvantages of the various options.  Profiles and SWOT analysis are provided for key industry players and detailed market forecasts for installed capacity and revenue extend through 2017.  An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the firm’s website.

Contact: Richard Martin

+1 303 997 7609

press@pikeresearch.com

February 7, 2012

Because commercial buildings consume roughly 23% of all electricity globally, the automation systems that ensure efficient performance are a critical part of energy management.  Until the mid-1990s, modern building automation consisted of little more than individual systems with simple control panels for switches, timers, and alarms.  Today, the market for commercial building automation systems is in the midst of revolutionary change in terms of technology and utility.  In the last several years, the focus has shifted from an individual system view to a more holistic view so that the “building system” can be defined to include virtually any device or data source within the building.  The amount of data created by automation systems can be overwhelming, but real competitive and economic value exists in using the data to monitor performance and uncover trends.  According to a new report from Pike Research, the market for commercial building automation systems will double over the next decade, increasing from $72.5 billion in 2011 to $146.4 billion by 2021. 

“Automation systems have long provided the core technologies to ensure that buildings are safe and energy-efficient,” says research analyst Eric Bloom. “Recent advances in automation technology, particularly relating to their integration with information and communication technologies, are dramatically increasing system capabilities and enabling deeper levels of energy management than ever before, thereby generating a surge in demand.”

This surge is being driven by two important trends that are transforming the building industry.  The first is aggressive energy efficiency goals within the building stock, which is undergoing tremendous growth, particularly in developing Asia Pacific nations.  Second is the fact that building automation controls and field devices, which communicate via a range of protocols such as BACnet and LonWorks, are starting to be fitted with Internet Protocol capability so as to utilize the same protocols and infrastructure equipment as the IT network.  As a result, the silos that IT, property management, software, and traditional BASs occupied within companies are disappearing.

Pike Research’s report, “Commercial Building Automation Systems”, analyzes the global market for commercial building automation and management systems including security and access, HVAC controls, fire and life safety, building management systems, and lighting controls.  The study examines current market conditions along with an assessment of the competitive landscape and technology issues that will affect the adoption and success of these systems.  Market forecasts through 2021 are provided for seven global regions and five key market segments.  An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the firm’s website.

Contact: Richard Martin

+1 303 997 7609

press@pikeresearch.com

February 6, 2012

The electric vehicle (EV) battery industry is entering a mature phase.  While some companies have been developing products for as long as 15 years, others are less than a decade old.  The earliest development efforts focused on nickel-metal hydride (NiMH) and lead-acid batteries, but today companies and automakers have standardized on lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries.  The Li-ion automotive market is currently led by Japanese and Korean companies that originally produced cells for the consumer electronics and computing markets.  These veteran companies are gradually being challenged by companies, primarily from China and North America, that are slowly gaining customers, mostly in their domestic markets.  According to a new Pike Pulse report published by Pike Research, the manufacturers best positioned to take advantage of these market shifts are LG Chem and Johnson Controls.

“Despite significant investment in battery production and technology development in the United States during the past three years, Japanese, Korean, and Chinese companies currently lead in global sales of electric vehicle batteries, and they are likely to continue doing so in the near term,” says research director John Gartner.  “The market will likely see volatility during 2012 as some supplier agreements change hands, and some smaller companies will likely fail or be acquired due to an inability to reach volume production.”

The market leader today, LG Chem, was ranked highest in both the Strategy and Execution categories in this Pike Pulse. The company has a diversified customer base of international automotive OEMs that are expected to be among the most successful sellers of hybrid and plug-in electric vehicles.  This customer base will likely give LG Chem the largest market share for EV batteries in 2012.  In addition, the company has outlined a clear and consistent vision for developing and marketing its technology and has established manufacturing centers in proximity to its major customers. 

Ranking second in both Strategy and Execution is Johnson Controls Inc., which sells Li-ion batteries to makers of both hybrid electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in all three of the major regions offering EVs: North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific.  The company’s diverse product portfolio and its development of energy storage technologies have created a positive reputation for quality within the automotive industry, but it must still translate its automotive relationships into a more significant market share to be considered a leader. 

The “Pike Pulse Report: Electric Vehicle Batteries” evaluates 10 of the leading electric vehicle battery manufacturers and rates them on 10 criteria for strategy and execution, including vision, go-to-market strategy, partners, product strategy and roadmap, geographic reach, market share, sales and marketing, product quality and reliability, product portfolio, and staying power.  Using Pike Research’s proprietary Pike Pulse methodology, vendors are profiled, rated, and ranked with the goal of providing industry participants with an objective assessment of these companies’ relative strengths and weaknesses in the emerging electric vehicle battery marketplace.  An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the firm’s website.

Contact: Richard Martin

+1 303 997 7609

press@pikeresearch.com

February 2, 2012

While the energy service company (ESCO) industry has been active for approximately 30 years, it continues to evolve in response to business opportunities and economic trends.  Today, newer service offerings, such as demand response and energy management software, enabled by intelligent metering and control systems that afford customers greater flexibility and control over their energy usage, are opening new opportunities for ESCOs.  According to a new report from Pike Research, the ESCO market for energy efficiency project installations and services in the United States exceeded $5.1 billion in 2011.  Driven by public policies that encourage a greater emphasis on energy efficiency to reduce costs and improve operations, this market is expected to continue to grow faster than the domestic economy and reach at least $13 billion in sales by 2020.  Under a more aggressive scenario, the ESCO market could reach $16 billion by 2020, the cleantech market intelligence firm forecasts.

“The full impact of recent federal stimulus funding has yet to be realized,” says research analyst Brittany Gibson.  “But the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 has directed billions of dollars into energy efficiency projects at all levels of government and in all geographic regions of the nation, driving increased investment and accelerating innovation among ESCOs.”

The ESCO market predominantly takes the form of direct contracting between providers of energy efficiency services and equipment and government agencies, public institutions, and commercial customers – typically via performance-based contracts, wherein funding for individual projects is based on a promise of “guaranteed savings” to facility owners/managers.  In particular, the federal sector’s appetite for this energy service performance contract model is growing, helping give rise to a market structure dominated by a group of very large companies that specialize in these contracts.  At the same time, project sizes are increasing as clients look for more comprehensive technologies and designs to address their energy consumption.  Of particular significance for ESCOs is President Obama’s 2009 executive order, which mandates that all federal agencies must achieve a 30% reduction in energy use by 2015. 

Pike Research’s report, “The U.S. Energy Service Company Market”, describes the continuing evolution of the ESCO market, detailing drivers and barriers to deeper penetration of energy efficiency in the U.S. economy.  The study focuses on the role that performance contracting is playing as a vehicle for financing efficiency projects for public entities that face budget and credit limitations, as well as the convergence of new technologies and service offerings into traditional energy conservation projects.  Key industry players are profiled in depth and market forecasts extend through 2020.  An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the firm’s website.

Contact: Richard Martin

+1 303 997 7609

press@pikeresearch.com

February 1, 2012

Today Pike Research announced the launch of its new Smart Grid IT Advisory Service, a subscription-based information tool that provides market intelligence and strategy insights for utilities, grid operators, investors, and vendors active in the emerging software and services market for smart grids.  As new power, sensor, and information technologies continue to build momentum, bringing with them exponential data growth, new business models, and requirements for further transformation, the challenge of effective business analysis and strategy development in an increasingly disruptive market environment will place enormous demands on utilities’ supporting information infrastructure.  Those demands will lead to increasing market opportunity for companies supplying IT and services to the leading players in the emerging smart grid ecosystem.

“The arrival of the smart grid brings a new level of complexity as silos of operations are broken down and new capabilities emerge based on large-scale information management, real-time data analysis, and the move to closed-loop systems for managing, monitoring, and controlling the smart grid,” says research director Eric Woods.  “Applications such as outage management and asset management are also being radically overhauled by the integration of IT and operational technology (OT).”

As part of the Smart Grid IT service, Pike Research’s industry analysts offer timely and actionable market insights, covering specific technology and business sectors as well as overall market conditions and trends.  Research reports include an in-depth examination of business models, technology issues, policy and regulatory factors, the competitive landscape, and market sizing, segmentation and forecasting. 

Pike Research’s key findings and forecasts about the emerging Smart Grid IT sector include the following:

• Many of the largest utilities have already begun an overhaul of their CIS and billing systems, and as this wave intensifies, it will begin to penetrate the next tier of utilities over the next several years.  Such systems upgrades will impact utilities representing 90 million electricity customers in the U.S. by 2015.
• The expansion of smart grid deployments is leading to significant growth in the market for meter data management systems and related professional services, which will push worldwide MDM market revenue from $52 million annually in 2011 to $490 million by 2018.
• The use of social media as a primary vehicle for customer interactions with their utilities is rising swiftly.  Approximately 57 million customers worldwide will use social media to engage utilities in 2011, a number that will rise to 624 million customers by the end of 2017.  Utility spending on social media, meanwhile, will increase to $317 million in 2017.
• By aligning business strategy, processes, and information assets, enterprise architecture can deliver better business decision-making, business-IT synergy, resource utilization, governance control, and speed to innovation, making it essential to utilities’ efforts to create a long-term roadmap and adjust effectively to the future smart grid.
• Some of the biggest innovations in smart grid IT are being driven by new application requirements such as electric vehicle charging systems, demand-side management applications, and distributed generation  management, including virtual power plants and microgrids.
• Interest in virtual power plants (VPPs) is gaining significant momentum within the industry, and VPP capacity will increase by 65% between 2011 and 2017, rising from 55.6 gigawatts (GW) to 91.7 GW worldwide during that period.

Pike Research’s Smart Grid IT Advisory Service covers a wide range of utility IT systems that are enabling the smart grid, from back office to customer premises. Research topics include smart grid data analytics, customer information systems, distribution management systems, cyber security, meter data management, managed services, and many more. Our analysis comprises market drivers and barriers, business models, technology issues, and the emerging competitive landscape for IT systems and services in the smart grid world.  Key industry players are profiled in depth, and detailed forecasts are provided for each key market segment.  Executive Summaries and further information about the Advisory Service are available for free download on Pike Research’s website.

Contact: Richard Martin

+1 303 997 7609

press@pikeresearch.com

January 31, 2012

Significant changes in the regulatory structure of the 125-year-old electric utility industry have allowed for competitive sales of electricity by a new set of restructured retail power sellers and service providers.  As a result, the past decade has seen a steady increase in commercial and industrial (C&I) customers that are able to purchase electricity from sellers other than their incumbent utility.  Since the California power crisis a decade ago, though, no additional state has opened its market to competitive providers.  In fact, several states and regulators have imposed limits and financial requirements, as well as increased their scrutiny of competitive players, with the goal of protecting consumers.  According to a recent report from Pike Research, the competitive market is poised for further growth in the coming decade, as competitive electricity purchases will nearly double from $29.4 billion in 2009 to $55.9 billion by 2020.  Regulatory policy, however, remains the single biggest limiting factor on the development of an open and competitive market for electricity supplies to commercial and industrial customers.

“Even though some 20 jurisdictions have enacted restructuring laws and policies designed to open their electricity market to new competitors, only about a dozen states allow for full-scale access to competitive markets for all customers,” says vice president of research Bob Gohn.  “Even in these states, laws and regulations tend to impose costs that are meant to ensure that expenses caused by the departure of other customers to competitive suppliers are not passed on to customers who remain with incumbent providers.”

A decade after suspending new retail competition in the wake of the power crisis, California has begun opening the door slightly to further access to competitive providers in regulated utility territories.  Because the Californian market is so large, this will have a significant impact on both the total national market and other states’ general perception of how much pent-up demand there is for competitive supplies.  There are no indications that states that have previously avoided restructuring have intentions to reexamine their policies. However, several other states that have frozen their efforts may restore competitive options for larger customers.  In particular, Arizona and Michigan represent strong potential markets for competitive procurement.

In general, increases in market activity will take place over the next five years in states that already have favorable policies, and in the 2015-20 period for areas that still need to reexamine their policies.

Pike Research’s report, “Corporate and Institutional Procurement of Electricity”, examines the critical role that electricity plays in commercial and industrial operations, explores the motivations for seeking non-utility and green power among a variety of business types, and identifies existing policies that promote competition – as well as barriers that may inhibit further access to competitively priced power.  The report includes profiles of key industry players and forecasts for the competitive electricity market through 2020.  An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the firm’s website.

Richard Martin

+1 303 997 7609

press@pikeresearch.com

January 31, 2012

As green building practices become more commonplace in the global construction industry, the goal of designing zero energy buildings, or buildings that consume as much energy as they produce through on-site and renewable energy systems, has emerged as the next major frontier.  A number of countries and regions have already established long-term targets and regulations requiring zero energy building construction that will come into effect over the coming years, some as soon as 2016.  These stringent regulations will accelerate adoption around the world, causing the industry to undergo a significant transformation in the coming years.  According to a new report from Pike Research, worldwide revenue from zero energy buildings will grow rapidly over the next two decades, reaching almost $690 billion by 2020 and nearly $1.3 trillion by 2035.  That represents a compound annual growth rate of 43%, with much of that growth occurring in the European Union.

“Following the surge in LEED and other green building certifications worldwide over the last few years, zero energy building has emerged as the ‘holy grail’ in green building design,” says research analyst Eric Bloom.  “Technically, zero energy building design is feasible for many building types in many regions, but concerns about the upfront cost continue to impede it in the market.”

The most noteworthy of the new regulatory regimes is in Europe, where the European Union’s Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD), which governs EU building energy codes, will require nearly zero energy construction in public buildings by 2019 and in all new construction by 2021.  The exact language of these new building codes is still being established, but it is clear they will drive significant investment in zero energy building technologies over the next few decades.  Similar regulations have come into effect or are being discussed in the United States and Japan.  While the technologies required to make zero energy buildings possible, such as efficient lighting and HVAC systems, improved insulation, solar photovoltaic and other systems, can add significant upfront cost, advances in energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies will improve system performance and reduce costs.

Pike Research’s report, “Zero Energy Buildings”, provides data on the size and growth of the market for zero energy building markets, including HVAC systems, glazing systems, wall and roof construction, renewable energy systems, and construction soft costs, from 2011 through 2035.  The study also includes a qualitative assessment of major drivers and trends for zero energy buildings in key markets, including both commercial and residential zero energy buildings.  It also provides a discussion of the individual technology elements associated with zero energy building, as well as the design challenges that the AEC (architecture/engineering/construction) service providers will face in delivering zero energy buildings.  An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the firm’s website.

Contact: Richard Martin

+1 303 997 7609

press@pikeresearch.com

January 30, 2012

Microgrids, or integrated systems in which distributed energy resources (DERs) operate as a single, autonomous grid either in parallel to or isolated from the existing utility power grid, offer customers and distribution utilities a host of new ways to bolster reliability and manage variable, bidirectional resources.  In addition, their smaller scale results in far fewer line losses, a lower demand on transmission infrastructure, and the ability to rely on more localized sources of power generation.  All of these benefits are stimulating increased demand for microgrids on a worldwide basis, in a range of application scenarios including campus environments, military operations, remote/off-grid settings, community/utility systems, and commercial and industrial markets.  According to a new report from Pike Research, microgrid capacity worldwide will experience a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of more than 22% over the next five years, reaching 4.7 gigawatts by 2017.  That represents $17.3 billion in annual worldwide revenue by the same year, the cleantech market intelligence firm forecasts. 

“Several new players have recently entered the microgrid market, signaling that a new race is on to take advantage of the significant opportunity that microgrids represent on a worldwide basis,” says senior analyst Peter Asmus, “most notably ABB, the Swiss industrial giant that is a leading player in transmission and distribution infrastructure, and Boeing, the veteran defense contractor that is engaging with Siemens in a strategic alliance to serve the U.S. military, as well as San Diego Gas & Electric – one of the leading utilities in this space – and Green Energy Corporation, which is addressing the interoperability of various controls and communications platforms being deployed for microgrids.”

Microgrids still face significant barriers to wide scale adoption.  As of 2012, not a single national government has developed an integrated or comprehensive policy creating a viable, vibrant market for customer-driven microgrids.  With the exception of Denmark, few other countries are even examining the complex policy issues involved when aggregating DERs not owned by utility companies on a broad scale.  While North America is still clearly the leader in terms of planned capacity, the developing world remains the most promising long-term market.  In particular, the remote/off-grid segment has emerged as the clear leader in terms of revenue and is arguably the most mature in terms of commercial status.

Pike Research’s report, “Microgrids”, analyzes the global market opportunity for microgrids across five key application segments:  campus, military, remote, community, and commercial & industrial.  The report provides a comprehensive assessment of the demand drivers, business models, policy factors, and technology issues associated with the rapidly-developing market for microgrids.  Key industry players are profiled in depth and worldwide revenue and capacity forecasts, segmented by application and region, extend through 2017.  An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the firm’s website.

Richard Martin

+1 303 997 7609

press@pikeresearch.com