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noreply@blogger.com (oiltradinginsider) — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 16:23:00 -0400

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natty

noreply@blogger.com (oiltradinginsider) — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 10:26:00 -0400

Things are unsteady be greedy with entries take profits within 5 cents adjust entry lower

so i bought at 48 sold at 51 that is 300 bucks now i move to the low at .46 in natty

if we get down to 3.30 or so we can think about position trading but for now 3-5 at a scalp in and out traders market 3.6 is the pivot on runs if you catch one sell there for sure if it breaks u get back in

natty is the story and where the money is for the moment

noreply@blogger.com (oiltradinginsider) — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 09:06:00 -0400

Every super smart technician said to sell this I alone said to buy

Nattty hope you rode with me

Natty is the place to make money right now as Oil is waiting for the next catalyst

oil and Gas

noreply@blogger.com (oiltradinginsider) — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 07:56:00 -0400

morning Pricing

noreply@blogger.com (oiltradinginsider) — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 07:47:00 -0400

overnight

noreply@blogger.com (oiltradinginsider) — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 21:50:00 -0400

Im still bullish on the overall market it just needed a breather the news was again encouraging

here is a idea of natural gas trends
like a train once it gets moving
gas made Oil look boring and we go where the volatility is

In today's trade I employed an average down style buying at 3.62 selling at 3.66
moving entry down 3.59 panicking out 3.61 buy 3.56 sell 3.62
buy 3.48 and that's where it stopped working as it broke down to 3.44 but bounced
still long the contract here
The month is almost over the fear now of course is that they are running out of storage
I touched on that last week even though it ran hard on almost an identical large build but 10 better than expected this time after the exuberant run to 3.87 right through the top of the bear channel(my esignal charts are better soon I will be exporting them)_and back down hard
Currently 3.51 and I am trying o off the long at 3.54.

NATTY AGAIN

noreply@blogger.com (oiltradinginsider) — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 12:40:00 -0400

the pivot has been violated in natty

noreply@blogger.com (oiltradinginsider) — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 12:08:00 -0400

oil and natty

noreply@blogger.com (oiltradinginsider) — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 11:19:00 -0400

Natty

noreply@blogger.com (oiltradinginsider) — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 10:44:00 -0400

natty

noreply@blogger.com (oiltradinginsider) — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 10:36:00 -0400

the back test of the trend is 3.82 break and close above we are through 4 and beyond

it seems like the range is set if you are long it is a place to consider a sale

natty

noreply@blogger.com (oiltradinginsider) — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 10:31:00 -0400

64 was better than expected if you bought the dip good for you

take profits near 4

Natty and Oil

noreply@blogger.com (oiltradinginsider) — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 09:57:00 -0400

oil

noreply@blogger.com (oiltradinginsider) — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 08:25:00 -0400

technically 72.4 is the bullish neckline and a close above it on the four hour chart is supposed to clear the way to 76 area and above
I think the dollar will have something to say about that as a bounce in the greenback
is bearish concern for Oil. We ranged overnight for all the scalpers out there
joblessness is a opaque number and housing starts in line
This is not being received well by the futures and perhaps the recent run up has given buyers pause here I have to buy dips again
if the dollar screams i will repost because that will alter today's calculations
moving to the november contract 72.4 is trend line support
buy 71.75 november

i will post when close to reaffirm email me if you have any questions

We stay in October in GAS
the inventory EIA should tell the story 10:30 ish
below 3.7 should kick start the selling dips should be bought unless inventory blows out expectations I will again post and let you now my take o the report

noreply@blogger.com (oiltradinginsider) — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 07:48:00 -0400

Today's Guidance

noreply@blogger.com (oiltradinginsider) — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 20:35:00 -0400

After the EIa i gave you my bias slightly bullish and gave you a baseline of 70.5 to buy

and told you to buy dips it ot down to 70.7 and then started to gain momentum

the cobo of the EIA the market the industrial prod number prom

Another very strong bag of timely advice day in and day out If im wrong every once in a while

I hope you guys forgive me because I give you the right picture most if the time

Now we have momentum and believers everywhere I think we are gonna retest the highs now

We have to take each days news into account but we have turned the corner and I think we are gonna power up another day---We have housing starts which I think are going to be strong

and jobless claims which are still the laggerd but get a good number by surprise and we just might explode

Natty has the EIA gas and you have to ask yourself what would use gas the answer cold weather

and it looks like nationwide there was a temp0 drop with all the good vibes from GOldman

and the supercontango I think 4 by tomorrow natty runs in lines take a look at a chart

over the past two years it has many many runs straight down and up currently we are on a b line from 2.4 to 3.7 WOW!

Changing my overnight biias to bullish as sympathy rallies should lift crude through the overnight untilo the definitive news either adds fuel tomorrow or changes the tone

ECO-

noreply@blogger.com (oiltradinginsider) — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 18:33:00 -0400

I was right so right about Natural gas look back out the posts since Friday
This turned and missed this last trip up by allowing other's bearishness to cloud my analysis.
What to do now? Well the inventories are out and we have to play them if they are good take the offer if they are bad hit the bid this will move 30 cents in either direction when they break
most likely. My morning line buy at 3.31 was the stone cold bottom just look back if you question it
I want to know who else on the planet called it that close. No one but yours truly.
The supercontange from Oct to Nov is on the clock so look for a trip past 4 like I have ben saying and now at 3.7 not being disputed or back to 3.3

We have news and lots of it coming again tomorrow so pay attention profit taking should occur
on the overnight sell the pops we are not ready to fully commit

JPY	BoJ Interest Rate Decision		0.10%	0.10%
23:50	JPY	BSI Manufacturing index Q/Q Q3		-11.4	-13.2
23:50	JPY	Tertiary Industry Index M/M Jul		0.50%	0.10%
08:30	GBP	Retail Sales M/M Aug		0.10%	0.40%
08:30	GBP	Retail Sales Y/Y Aug		2.70%	3.30%
09:00	EUR	Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Jul		1.2B	1.0B
10:00	GBP	U.K. CBI Industrial Orders Sep		-49	-54
11:00	CAD	CPI M/M Aug		0.20%	-0.30%
11:00	CAD	CPI Y/Y Aug		-0.60%	-0.90%
11:00	CAD	BoC CPI Core M/M Aug		0.10%	0.00%
11:00	CAD	BoC CPI Core Y/Y Aug		1.60%	1.80%
12:00	CHF	SNB Interest Rate Decision		0.25%	0.25%
12:30	CAD	Leading Indicators M/M Aug		--	0.40%
12:30	USD	Housing Starts Aug		595K	581K
12:30	USD	Building Permits Aug		580K	560K
12:30	USD	Initial Jobless Claims (SEP 12)		558K	550K
14:00	USD	Philadelphia Fed. Survey Sep		7.8	4.2

EIa and API

noreply@blogger.com (oiltradinginsider) — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 16:33:00 -0400

pull the offer

noreply@blogger.com (oiltradinginsider) — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 12:07:00 -0400

just to be clear if you did not buy the dip below 71 do not sell short at 72 industrial production

added to the rally

move sell 73

OIl and Natty

noreply@blogger.com (oiltradinginsider) — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 11:24:00 -0400

The report showing a huge draw with a weak dollar in an up market would usually send Oil up 8%

This is a very difficult read in crude here mixed signals from either side of the report

imports were down

I gave you a 70.5 guideline to buy off but take your profits scalping until a true direction avails itself to us

EIA

noreply@blogger.com (oiltradinginsider) — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 10:35:00 -0400

the trend

noreply@blogger.com (oiltradinginsider) — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 09:38:00 -0400

Im long everything from AIG to X but I may add some BGZ if these guys who have suddenly turned bullish keep talking once they get on board a pullback is always in the offing

I feel like Oil wants to correct but everyone should wait for the EIA

Natty breaks 3.6 look out above Im gonna be mad If that happens without me

looking for the pullback there

Natty

noreply@blogger.com (oiltradinginsider) — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 08:58:00 -0400

I love natty and I called the very bottom to the penny and I bought it there

I am inclined to sell at 3.51

It is probably a short here but I will not sell this I will wait again for my next place to buy in and

I am hoping we get another chance in the 30's Gas Inventories are tomorrow I believe we will get a pullback towards the close

EIA

noreply@blogger.com (oiltradinginsider) — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 07:41:00 -0400

Today is EIA if it comes out like the API OIL is in Trouble no pricing until the report

Natty and X

noreply@blogger.com (oiltradinginsider) — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 20:58:00 -0400

Im hearing from some very smart people that the rally in Natty is over.

That is a pretty dumb comment we might get a pullback and I hope we do

because I didnt wring enough money out of this run

But I will say this You will not get rich betting against the likes of Goldman Sachs

There is stil an inventory issue it ran last week on a substantial build that happened to be better than expected so maybe we get a pullback and that should be bought

I am catching a ltlle falck from some members that sold X at 47.xx with me today

but If read the advice carefully it was sell if you were long and I advised buying the sept 45

line the day before at 1.10 it was like .40 over par and right at the strike and low risk way

to get bang for the buck buying the Big Steel. US steel broke through the trading range today and I wish I had held it all untilo 49.98 or so where its acme was but Still a pretty good trade

and if steel comes back down maybe make some money if it goes the other way

plus I also said to ratio buy 3 calls to every 200 shares of stock I still left so0me upside on the play. The steel proces dropping 8% were cast asunder versus Bernanke declaration of the end of the recession coupled with the strong ppi and retail sales.

The retail number even with autos out was still fairly remarkable -There is real hard data

that the recession is over- We will suffer moguls and how they are gonna get out of this inflation

trap is gonna be interesting but the recession is over nothing lasts forever except perhaps the cycles of the economy in themselves.

The third quarter sets up to be big we are killi this month just like last after that early stumble as most of these guys keep telling you to wait to get in. "Fundamentals do not justify prices" are you guys serious with that? How many point s are you guys gonna wait until; you get in? Please let me know when they finally buy because it will probably be a sale then.

I try to turn it off because a guy like Joseph Stiglitz will tell you tales of eco-horror that he writes within the walls of his giant house between bites of porterhouse and since we know how smart he is we sometimes even listen. The truth and even Alan Greenspan was big enough to admit this that this trades in the future there are too many variable where a slight adjustment

changes valuation so drastically to truly know the fuindamentals we are all working on best guess. I personally stand back and see that despite the rally from march we are long way from where we were and we will return and pass those levels it is just a matter of time. Recessions

as well as growth do not last forever it is all part of the cycle.

Weekly change in inventory as of 11/09/09	Actual	Change	Market Expectation	Previous
Crude oil	332.8 mmb	-4.73 mmb	-2.50 mmb	-5.91 mmb
Gasoline	207.7 mmb	+0.55 mmb	+0.70mmb	+2.07 mmb
Distillate	167.8 mmb	+2.24 mmb	+1.25 mmb	+1.99 mmb

		API (Sep 11)		EIA (Sep 11)
	Actual	Inventory	Previous	Forecast (using API's inventory level)	Inventory
Crude oil	+0.63 mmb	336.9 mmb	-7.22 mmb	-7.39 mmb	337 mmb
Gasoline	+1.35 mmb	208.8 mmb	+0.57 mmb	+2.42mmb	209 mmb
Distillate	+5.20 mmb	170.3 mmb	+3.28 mmb	+1.54 mmb	170 mmb