nykabu

noreply@blogger.com (americakabu) — Sun, 20 Oct 2013 23:26:00 +0000

Top Down S&P 500 Target Price, Earnings Forecasts, etc.

(Sources: Standard and Poor's, Federal Reserve)

According to the latest Bloomberg Survey, the median 2013 top-down target price for the S&P 500 is 1750 with an earnings forecast of $109.00, suggesting an implied PER of 16.06x. Meanwhile, the 2014 target price is 1900 based on an earnings forecast of $115.00 for a PER of 16.52x. A mild PER expansion scenario despite rising interest rates (10Y bond yield forecast Q4 13 of 2.80% => Q4 14 3.38%.) This would also seem to point to a continued decline in the equity risk premium and a well-behaved inflation picture.

The comparable bottom-up earnings forecasts are $110.57 for 2013 and $122.86 for 2014.

noreply@blogger.com (americakabu) — Mon, 14 Oct 2013 03:11:00 +0000

T-Bill Yields (10/11/13):

Although yields centering around (10/17/13) declined on Friday, most yields continued to increase in later maturities.

Treasury Yield Curve (10/11/13):

noreply@blogger.com (americakabu) — Mon, 14 Oct 2013 02:56:00 +0000

A Few Technical Indicators:

Percentage of NYSE Stocks Trading Above 200D MAV:

Cumulative Advance Decline NYSE Securities:

Cumulative Advance Decline NYSE Equities:

AAII Bullish Investor Sentiment:

AAII Bearish Investor Sentiment:

noreply@blogger.com (americakabu) — Mon, 14 Oct 2013 02:41:00 +0000

VIX:

CBOE S&P Implied Correlation (KCJ):

noreply@blogger.com (americakabu) — Mon, 14 Oct 2013 02:29:00 +0000

S&P 500 Valuation:

PER:

PBR:

Dividend Yield:

noreply@blogger.com (americakabu) — Mon, 14 Oct 2013 02:14:00 +0000

Consensus U.S. Economic Forecasts:

October 2013:

July 2013:

noreply@blogger.com (americakabu) — Tue, 08 Oct 2013 00:14:00 +0000

S&P500 Top Down Strategist Forecasts:

noreply@blogger.com (americakabu) — Tue, 08 Oct 2013 00:11:00 +0000

S&P 500 Bottom Up Estimates:

noreply@blogger.com (americakabu) — Mon, 07 Oct 2013 22:10:00 +0000

S&P 500 Earnings Estimates:

チャート・ポイント：DXY、円ドル為替、10年物国債利回、30年物国債利回

noreply@blogger.com (americakabu) — Mon, 29 Nov 2010 00:05:00 +0000

チャート・ポイント：SPX、NYSE Adv-Dec, % Above 200 MAV

noreply@blogger.com (americakabu) — Sun, 28 Nov 2010 23:46:00 +0000

コンセンサス予想

noreply@blogger.com (americakabu) — Sun, 28 Nov 2010 23:42:00 +0000

MSCIインデックス・パフォーマンス

noreply@blogger.com (americakabu) — Sun, 28 Nov 2010 23:38:00 +0000

週間インデックス・パフォーマンス

noreply@blogger.com (americakabu) — Sun, 28 Nov 2010 23:35:00 +0000

チャート・ポイント：SPX、NYSE Adv-Dec, % Above 200 MAV

noreply@blogger.com (americakabu) — Sun, 17 Oct 2010 18:37:00 +0000

CBOE S&P500 Implied Correlation Index

noreply@blogger.com (americakabu) — Sun, 17 Oct 2010 18:21:00 +0000

コンセンサス予想

noreply@blogger.com (americakabu) — Sun, 17 Oct 2010 18:03:00 +0000

MSCIインデックス・パフォーマンス

noreply@blogger.com (americakabu) — Sun, 17 Oct 2010 18:00:00 +0000

週間インデックス・パフォーマンス

noreply@blogger.com (americakabu) — Sun, 17 Oct 2010 17:57:00 +0000

チャート・ポイント：SPX、NYSE Adv-Dec, % Above 200 MAV

noreply@blogger.com (americakabu) — Sun, 10 Oct 2010 20:16:00 +0000

CBOE S&P500 Implied Correlation Index

noreply@blogger.com (americakabu) — Sun, 10 Oct 2010 20:14:00 +0000

コンセンサス予想

noreply@blogger.com (americakabu) — Sun, 10 Oct 2010 20:12:00 +0000

MSCIインデックス・パフォーマンス

noreply@blogger.com (americakabu) — Sun, 10 Oct 2010 20:09:00 +0000

週間インデックス・パフォーマンス

noreply@blogger.com (americakabu) — Sun, 10 Oct 2010 20:08:00 +0000

チャート・ポイント: SPX、NYSE Adv-Dec, % Above 200 MAV

noreply@blogger.com (americakabu) — Sun, 26 Sep 2010 20:04:00 +0000